ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ :ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ
ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ
ﺮﻓﻮﻠﻴﻧ ﻲﻨﻴﺴﺣ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺳ ،1
ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻐﺻﺍ ﻦﻴﺴﺣ
*
1
ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺮﻔﻌﺟ ،2 3
1 . ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
،ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻭ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
، niloofar_hoseyni65@yahoo.com
2 . ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ،ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ، ،
asgharpur@tabrizu.ac.ir
3 ﺍ . ﺩﺎﺘﺳ
، ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
،ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻭ ﺰﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
، jhaghighat79@gmail.com
:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 15
/ 3 / 1396 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 28
/ 06 / 1396
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ) ﻪـﺟ
ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ (ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ
ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ) ﻱ
:Q4
1394 - :Q1
1367 ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ (
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺎﺷ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺍﺬـﻟ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧ
ﻱ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻛﻱﺭﻮﻃﻪﺑ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ
ﺖـﺤﺗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ
304 / 0 ﻭ 091 / 0 ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ
ﻪﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ 582
/ 0 ﻭ 720 / 0 ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ،ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻟﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
.ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ :JEL ،E31 ،F41 F31
:ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫژﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ،ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
.*
ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ،ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﺱﺎﻤﺗ ﻦﻔﻠﺗ
:
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﺖـﻤ
ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍﺮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺯﺍﺮﺗ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺮﺑ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﺒﻗﺭ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ
ﻥﺁ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺎـﻫ
ﺆـﻣ ﺮﺛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ .
ﻲﻣ .ﺩﺭﺍﺬـﮕﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻳﻻﺎـﺑ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻑﻭﺮﻌﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺪـﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ،ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ
ﻲـﺴﻴﻋ) ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺯ
،ﻦﺷﻭﺭ 1394 .(
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﺮـﺑ ﻩﺎﮔﺪـﻳﺩ ﻦﻴﺘﺴﺨﻧ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺪـﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺾﻴﻌﺒﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺮﻴﻈﻧ ﻲﻠﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻭ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ،ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ
ﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ .ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
)1
2000 ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ( ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ،ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺪﻧﺍﺩ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻭ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺎﻳ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻢﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻐـﺻﺍ) ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺮـﺗ ،ﻮﻠﻳﺪـﻬﻣ
1393 .(
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﮔﺁ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱﺰـﻳﺭ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻲـﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ
ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺪﻨﻔﻠﻜﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻘﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
.ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻫﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺗ ﺮﻴﺳ ﻱ
ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﻂـﺳﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﻱ 1380 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎـﺒﺛ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺎـﻫ
ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻭ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺖﻔﮕﻨﻫ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻠﻋ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﺐﺒﺳ ﻳﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺎﻴﺳ ﻲ
ﺖﺳ ﺯﺍ) ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻃﺎـﺴﺒﻧﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺡﺮﻃ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ (ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﻭﺯ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ ﺘﺷﺍﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ . ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻪـﻫﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
1. Taylor
1380 ،ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻢﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﻞـﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﻞﻜﺷ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ
ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ
. ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
، ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮـﺧﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎـﺒﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ
ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﻮﺳ ﺶﺨﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺹﺎـﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲـﺳﺎﻨﺷ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻥ
.ﺪﺳﺭ
2 - ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ
2 - 1 - ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ
ﻪﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱ 1970 ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻴﺘﺴﺨﻧ ﻱ
ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺮﺛﺍ
ﺯﺎﻏﺁ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ
، ﻩﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺎﻫﺪﻌﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺮﺗ
ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ـﺳﺍ ﻩ
ﺖ ﻦﻴـﻟﻭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ .
ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺵﻮـﺒﻧﺭﻭﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ1
ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ
ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻭ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ) ﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻭ گﺮﺑﺪﻠﮔ ﺎﻫﺪﻌﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳ 1997
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻩ ﺍ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﻫﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪ
ﻪﺑ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﻚﻳ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ
، ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﺮـﺛﺍ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﻢﻛ .ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻼﻛ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﺮﺑ ﻲ
ﺮﺛﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﺰﻳﺎـﻤﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺰﺋﺎﺣ ﻪﻟﺎﺴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﻣﺍ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
، ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ ﻲـﻣ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﻮﻃ
ﺮـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
1. Dornbusch
ـﮕﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻖـﺒﻃ .ﺩﺭﺍﺬ
ﻱ ) ﺭﻮـﻠﻴﺗ 2000 ﻱﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻪـﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ،(
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﻟﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻨﻛ
،ﺪ ﻲـﭘﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺎـﺑ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻟﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺎـﺛﺁ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻙﺪﻧﺍ ﺕ
ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﺘﻨﻴﺷ) ﺩﻮﺷ
،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ1
2013 ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻭ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .(
.ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧﺎﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ،ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻜﻳ
ﺭﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ
ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ
ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﺘﻓﺭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻱ
.ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﻼﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
،ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻱ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ
ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
، ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺯﺎـﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻣﺍ .ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻱ
ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ
، ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗ
ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻛ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻐـﺻﺍ) ﺩﺩﺮـﮔ ﻭ
،ﻮﻠﻳﺪـﻬﻣ 1393
ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺮـﺑ .(
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﺒﻣ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ
ﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻤﻴﻘ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﺖﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻤﻬﻣ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻊـﺒﻨﻣ ﺰـﻴﺧ
ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻭﺭ ﺪﻧ
، ﺎﻣﺍ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ ﺍﺯ ﺑ ﺎﻧ ﺯﻭﺮـﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺩﻮ ﻲـﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ
ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎـﺒﺛ
ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻮـﺷ
ﺩ،
ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻱﺎﻜﺗﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﺳ
ﻙﻮﺷ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻲـﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ،ﺖﻔﻧ ﺎﻧ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠ
ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ
ﻲﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻥﻼﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺑ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
1. Shintani
ﻲﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘـﺳﺎﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ .ﺩﺩﺮﮔ
2 - 2 - ﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﻨ ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ
ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲ
ﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺮﺗﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻨ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺮﺼﺘﺨﻣ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ .
ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ .ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻦﺑ ﻲﭽﻴﻫﻮﻟ ﻭ ﺦﻴﻛ )1
2016 ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻱ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
63 ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪ ﺍ
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺪـﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻪﺳ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺁ ﻭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻲ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﻫﺩ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﭻﻴـﻠﻴﻛ .ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
)2
2016 ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،(
ﻱ ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ،ﻦﭘﺍژ ،ﻥﺎﻤﻟﺁ ،ﺲﻴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ،ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ3
ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
ﺏﺭﺪﻨﻴﻓﺍﺯﺍﺭ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺎﺑ )4
2014 ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻭﺭﻮﻳ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺮﻛ
ﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ .ﺪﻧ ﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻑﻼﺧ
ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺕ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ،ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻪ ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺆـﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸ
ـﻫﺩ ﺪ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ 2008
ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻥﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻭ
، ﺯﺍ ﺲـﭘ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ
ﺁ ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ
.
ﻲﻧﺎﺘﻨﻴﺷ ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ5
2013 ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ ﻱ
ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ
ﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻩ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ .ﺪﻧﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ
ـﻫﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ
ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﻮـﺠﺑ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﺟ .ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
)6
2013 ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ﻮﺧ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﻪ ﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ .ﺪﻧ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
1. Ben Cheikh and Louhichi 2. Kili¸ C.
3. Smooth Transition Pass-through (STP) 4. Bandt & Razafindrabe
5. Shintani 6. Jihene & Bejaoui
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻭ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
.ﺲﻜﻋﺮﺑ ﻭﻭ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻟ )1
2012 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺁ ﻲﻧﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭﺩﻮﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
2ﻱﺍ ﻪـﺑ
ﻲﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻲﺗﺎـﺒﺛ
ﻥﺍﻮﻳﺎـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺘﺧ ﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧ ﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻲﺑ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪ ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ
، ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺮﺋﻮﮔﺁ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻬﺑ )3
2012 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﻲﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ 37 ﻝﺎـﺣﺭﺩ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻩ ﺍ
،ﻡﺍﺭﺁ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺎﻳ ﺪﺑ ﻲﺑ ﻭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻩﻭﺮـﮔ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ
ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ،ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺩ
ـﻳﺍ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻦ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆـﻣ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻑﺎﻜﺷ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺮﻔﺟ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ )4
2010 ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻛﺎﭘ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ
ﻪـﻛ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
(ﺮﻔـﺻ ﻚـﻳﺩﺰﻧ) ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻥﺎﺘـﺴﻛﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺎﺳﺁﻭﺩ . )5
2008 ﻪﻧﺎﻜﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ( ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺰﻟﺎﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ
ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻙﻮـﺷ ﻪﻛ
ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻤﻬﻣ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻦ ﺎـﻫ
ﺺﻗﺎـﻧ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻣﻮﻫﺮﺑ )6
2005 ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ 24
ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .
ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺕﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺮﻴﻈﻧ ﻲﻠﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻊﻧﺍﻮﻣ ،ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺪﻨﻟﻭﺭ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ )7
2003 ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻱ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺍﺭ ﺎـﻴﺒﻤﻠﻛ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻭ ﻩ
ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻪﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻙﻮﺷ ﻚﻳ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ
ﻲﻛﺪـﻧﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ
1. Lin and Wu
2. Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR) 3. Aguerre et al.
4. Jaffri 5. Duasa 6. Barhoumi 7. Rowland
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ) گﺮﺑﺪﻠﮔ ﺎﭙﻣﺎﻛ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ 2002
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ،(
ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭOECD
ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ،ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺎﺗﻮ
.ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺪﻣ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎﺗ ﻩﺯﻮـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ
ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ
ﺗ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺸﻧ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﺭﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻮﺷ
) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﺣﺎﺒﺼﻣ .ﺩ 1396
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،(
ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﺑ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻴﻛﺄ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ ﻩ ﺍ
.ﺪـﻧ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﻫﺩ ﺪ ﻪـﻛ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻢـﻳژﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻢـﻳژﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺖﺳﺍ ـﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺛ
ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻧﺭﺎـﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺖـﻣﻼﻋ ﺮ
ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻐﺻﺍ .ﺩﻮﺷ
1394 ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﺮﺠﺗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻲﺑ
ﻩ ﺍ .ﺪـﻧ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻱ
ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺺﻗﺎـﻧ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ،ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﻢﻛ ،ﻻﺎﺑ ﺍ ﺮﺗ ) ﻩﺩﺍﺯﺪﻤﺣﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺪﻴﺣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﺯ 1394
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻱ ﺩﻮـﺧ
ﻩﺮﻴﺠﻧﺯ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ ﺮﻛ
ﻩﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧﺍ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻩﺮﻴﺠﻧﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺮﻴﺠﻧﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪﭼﺮﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﺎﻫ
ﻱ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﻮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻑﺮﻃ ﻢـﻛ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲـﻣ ﺮـﺗ ﻲـﭘ ﺭﺩ .ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲـﻣ ﻱﺮﺘـﺸﻴﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻮﻠﻳﺪـﻬﻣ ﻭ ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻐـﺻﺍ .ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ
) 1393 ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ،(
ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﻚـﻳ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﻛ ﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﻫﺩ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ ـﻧ
.ﺪ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺑﺁﺮـﺸﺑ ﻲـﺑﺍﺮﻬﻣ .ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ 1390
ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ،(
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺪﻫﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺺﻗﺎﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ) ﻱﺭﺎـﺒﺧﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺨﺒـﺷﻮﺧ
1386 ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ،(
ﻭ ﻩﻮـﺤﻧ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ
ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ
ﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱ ﺮـﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻣ ﻲﻠﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ
ﻱ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ
ﻓ ﻪﻴﺿﺮ ) ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ 2000
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ( ﻮﺷ
ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ،ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺩ ﺎـﻧ
ﺺﻗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪـﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻨﻛ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺪ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪـﻛ ﺭﺩ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻧﺎـﺒﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺲﻜﻋﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﺒﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
، ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺎـﻣﺍ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﺱﺎ
ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ
، ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﺲﻜﻋ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻕﺩﺎـﺻ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻭﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺩﺮﻣ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻳﺎﻤﺗ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
، ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ ،ﺪـﻧﺭﻮﺒﺠﻣ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺷﻭﺮﻓ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻱ
ﺩﻮـﺳ
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ
، ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ،ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻛ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻘﺘﻨﻣ ﺮﺗ
ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﻲـﻣ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻩﻮـﺤﻧ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﻱ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻛ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻐـﺻﺍ) ﺪـﻨ
1394 .(
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ،ﺪـﻫﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎـﺳﻮﻧ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺖـﺤﺗ ﻡﺭﻮـﺗ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻪـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ .ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ) ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ، ﺭﺩ (ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺿﺎﺣ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲـﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ،ﺭﻮـﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻱﺪﻴﻔﻣ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﻟﻻﺩ ،ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻲﺗﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﻪـﺑ .ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺰﻳﺎﺣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭﺭ ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ،ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺕﻻﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﮕﺨﺳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻠﻴﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﺎﻳ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﻛ
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩ
1ﻢﻳﻼﻣ
، ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ،ﻲـﻄﺧ ﻱﺎـﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻱ
ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ
ﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺎﻛ
ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ،ﻲـﻄﺧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ
ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
.ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮـﭘ ﺩﻮﺟﻭﺎـﺑ
ﺖﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ،ﻲﻄﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ ـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮ
ﻲﻣ ءﺰﺟ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺯﺍ ﺐﻛﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻪﺟﻭ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ
ﻦﻤﺿ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
،ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ
ﻪـﻛ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎﺗ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣﺭﻮﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ
3 - ﺵﻭﺭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻭﺮﻴﭘ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ) ﺎﭙﻤﻛ ﻭ گﺮﺑﺪﻠﮔ ﻱ
2005 ( ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ .ﺩﻮﺷ
) 1
p p p (
t i t i t i t i t t tj
i i i
Lpim D
¦
ELex \¦
Lcpi¦
-Lod PLoil [Lgdp u0 0 0
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱ
ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،pim
ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ،(ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ)gdp
ﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ)ex
ﺭ ﺮـﻴﻏ ،(ﻲﻤـﺳﺭ
cpi
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ) ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
،(
ﻭ (ﻲﺘﻔﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ)oil
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ)od
(ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺯﺎـﺑ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ .ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ،ﻲﻄﺧ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ
Ⱦ
ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺕﺪـﻣ
ﺑ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪ
Ⱦ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺪﻣ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ) ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ (ﺕﺪﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ .ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻱ
) 1 ﻲـﻣ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ( ﻮـﺷ
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺩ ﻱ
،ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭP
1. Smooth Transition Regression model (STR)
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺤﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱ
) 2 ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ( ﺑ ﻱ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎ ﻱ
ﺮـﻳﺯ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ :
) 2
t t (
t
t
X IM
OD GDP
،ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
Xt
،ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
IMt
ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ
GDPt
ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ
ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ
ﻲـﻣ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻮـﺷ
ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ .ﺩ ﺮـﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ
ﻝﺎـﺒﻧﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﭻﻴـﻠﻛ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ
) 2015 ،(
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺁ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺯﺍ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﻮـﺒﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻲـﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ
:ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ) 3 (
Lpimt EZ E Zt ( * t).G( , c,s ) uJ t t
) 4 (
p p
Lpimt [ i t]( G( , c,s )) [t i* t]G( , c,s ) ut t
i i
D
¦
E Z 1 J¦
E Z J0 0
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ) ﻱ
4 ،(
ﺳﺍ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗG(0)
ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺖ ﺮـﺑﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻦـﻳﺍ .ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺠﻟ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ
ﻮﺷ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺩ
ɘ୲
ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮـﺑ
ﺎـﻘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﺮﻳﺩ
ﻲـﻣ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩ ـﺷﺎﺑ
ﺪ ﻭ
،Ⱦ Ⱦכ
، ،ɀ
ﻭ
୲
ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﻪﺑ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ) ﺐﻴﺷ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ،ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ،ﻲﻄﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ
ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺪـﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ (ﻪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺁ ﺢﻄﺳ) ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ،(ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ .ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 1 ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،(
ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ
୲ൌ ሼ୲ିୢሽǡ א
ሼͳǡʹሽ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍ
،ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ،ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ .ﺖﺳ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺖﺤﺗ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺮــﺳ ﺕﺎــﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻚــﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻠــﺼﻓ ﻱﺎــﻫ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲــﻃ ﻱﺰــﻛﺮﻣ ﻚــﻧﺎﺑ ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺯ
ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺯ ﻱ
1367 :
Q1-:Q4
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ .ﺖﺳﺍ
4 - ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄ
ﻮﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺎـﮔ ﻦﻴﺘـﺴﺨﻧ .ﺩ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ،ﻢﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺘﻓﺭ ﺭﺎـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ،1
ﻦﻴﺋﻮـﻛ ﻥﺎﻨﺣ ﻭ 2
ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ3
1. Akaike Criterion 2. Schwarz Criterion 3. Hannan-Quinn Criterion
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺎﻛﺁ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ .ﺪﻧﻮﺷ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ،ﻚﻴﺋ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻲﺤﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱ
ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ4
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﻡﺎﮔ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘSTR
ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ،ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻄﺧﺮﻴﻏ ﻱ
ﻪـﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ،ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﻮﺒﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣﺭﻮـﺗ ﻂﻴـﺤﻣ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺕﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ
، ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ،ﻡﺭﻮﺗ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ،ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻮﺷ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ .ﺩ 1
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ، .ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ
ﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻄﺧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ .ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻱ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ،ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
.ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻢـﻳﻼﻣ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﻮﻴـﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ،ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ
LSTR1
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﺒﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻉﻮﻧ . ﻝﺪﻣ
ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ F2
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ F3
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ F4
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ F
ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
LSTR1 0/0007436 0/0007303 0/00020035 0/005203 Lcpi(t) LSTR1 0/001179 0/00053002 0/0001698 0/0045016 Lcpi(t-1)*
LSTR1 0/0053281 0/0001095 0/0067369 0/05546 Lcpi(t-2)
LSTR1 0/019817 0/00000215 0/046917 0/04834 Lcpi(t-3)
LSTR1 0/031711 0/000000122 0/02034 0/047968 Lcpi(t-4)
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻦﺗﻮـﻴﻧ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻱ -
ﻲﻣ ﻦﺴﻓﺍﺭ ﺘﻧ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺞﻳﺎ 2
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ .ﺖﺳﺍ
) ﻲﺘﺧﺍﻮﻨﻜﻳ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺯ (ɀ
97703 / 1 ﻪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺁ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻱ
ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ) ،(ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑc
41403 / 2 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
:ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﻳﺫ ) 5 (
G( /1 97703 2 41403, / , cpit1) (1 exp{1 97703/ (cpit12 41403/ )})1
) ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ 2
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻪـﺘﻜﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ (
ﻝﻭﺍ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻭG=0
) ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺍﺬﻟ ،ﺖﺳﺍ G=1
1 ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ( ﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺮﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ .ﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
) ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ 6 ﺍﺭ ( :ﺖﺷﻮﻧ
) 6
Lpim = /t + / Lcpi + /t 1Lgdp + /t Lod +t (
/ Lex - /t Lext- + / Lext- - / 1Loilt 3 72562 1 6564 0 4897 0 21974 0 30414 0 33840 2 0 61628 3 0 20181
ﻡﻭﺩ ﻢﻳژﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ
:ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
) 7 (
Lpim = /t / Lcpi + /t Lcpit- + / Lgdpt + / Lod - /t Lodt-+ / Lex + /t Lext- - / Lext- + / Lext- - / Loilt
2 20637 0 61776 0 97182 4 0 01261
0 64935 0 71409 1 0 09061 0 69337 1 0 6801 2 0 61628 3 0 08595
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ . ﻐﺘﻣ
ﻴ
ﺮ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ t-stat p-value
ﺶﺨﺑ ﻄﺧ ﻲ
CONST 3/72562 5/5687 0/0000
LODt 0/21974 1/8666 0/0663
LGDPt 0/48971 2/7129 0/0084
LCPI(t) 1/6564 3/2121 0/0020
LEXt 0/30414 1/6690 0/0992
LEXt-2 - 0/33840 - 2/5003 0/0146
LEXt-3 0/61628 2/3443 0/0220
LOilt - 0/20189 - 1/9230 0/0589 ﺶﺨﺑ
ﻏ ﻴ ﻄﺧﺮ ﻲ
CONST - 1/51925 - 2/0514 0/0441
LGDPt 0/24843 2/3265 0/0226
LODt 0/42961 2/0319 0/0468
LODt-1 - 0/71409 - 1/7844 0/0791
LCPIt - 1/03864 - 3/0802 0/0030
LCPIt-4 0/97182 2/3689 0/0211
LEXt - 0/21353 - 1/8045 0/0751
LEXt-1 0/69337 1/9860 0/0500
LEXt-2 - 0/34170 - 1/9849 0/0508
LOilt 0/11594 1/755 0/0838
Gamma 1/97703 2/6322 0/0106
C 2/41403 7/5004 0000/0
Adjusted R2:0/81, AIC:-5/77, SC:-4/97, HQ:-5/45
