ﺭﺩ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻧﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﻖﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ
ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﻲﻠﻗ ﺮﺒﻛﺍ ﻲﻠﻋ *
ﻮﻀﻋ ﺕﺄﻴﻫ ﺎﻨﻴﺳ ﻲﻠﻋﻮﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ
a.gholizadeh@basu.ac.ir
ﻥﺎﻳﺮﻜﺷ ﻥﺎﺴﺣﺍ
ﻲﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﺱﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ
- ﻲﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ،ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ
، ﺷﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ ،ﻥﺎﮕﺒﺨﻧ ﻭ ﻥﺍﻮﺟ ﻥﺍﺮﮕﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻩﺎﮕ
eshokryan@iauh.ac.ir , eshokryan@gmail.com
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
8 / 12 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
1 / 12 / 90
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲـﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
، ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﺳﺭ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻱ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ ﺏﻮـﻠﻄﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ،ﻪﺘـﺴﺴﮔ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻜﺴﻣ ﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻦ ﻪ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻱ ﻫ
ﺖﺳﺎ . ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻲﻣ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻞﺻﺍﻮﻓ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻦﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺪﻳﺰﮔﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ،ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻦﻳ .
ﻖﻃﺎـﻨﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﻫﺩ ﻪـﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻱ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻞـﺻﺍﻮﻓ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺎﻫ
ﻢـﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻚﻫﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﺪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻝﺁ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﺎـﺑ ﻡﻮـﺳ ﻚـﻫﺩ ،ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﺟﺄﺘﺴﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ 659 ،ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
.
ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ :JEL
R39 ,R29 ,D81 ,C02, C44
ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻩژﺍﻭ : ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ،ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ،ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ،ﻱﺍ
-* ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻩﺪﻴﺷﻮﭘ ﻲﺴﻛ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ
. ﻲﻳﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻛﺮﺤﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱ
ﺩﻭﺭ ) گﺮـﺒﻨﻳﻭ ﻭ1
،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ 1981
.(
ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ،ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱ ﺪﻳﺁ
، ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺘـﺳﺍﻮﺧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﻱﺍﺮ
ﻲﺑﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺭﺩ
ﺪﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﻮﻠﺟ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻑﻼﺗﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻩ
ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻱ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ .
ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻦﮕﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ2
ﻥﺁ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ،ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ،ﻥﺁ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎـﻫ ﻥﻮﮔﺎـﻧﻮﮔ ﻱ ﻥﺁ
ﻞﺜﻣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻲـﻄﻴﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻱ
، ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻱﺮﻣﺍ ﻲﺘﻴﻌﻤﺟ )
ﻲﻠﻗ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺯ 1389
.(
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻴﻧﺩ ﺭﺩ
ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﺛ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ .
ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻖﻧﻭﺭ ﺎﻳ ﺩﻮﻛﺭ
، ﺮﻴﻏ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻲﻌﻄﻗ
ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻥﺪﻳﺰﮔﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻌﻄﻗ ﻡﺪﻋ
، ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻖـﻄﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺯﺍ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣﺎﻧ ﻙﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲـﻌﻄﻗ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻡﺪﻋ ،ﺎﻫ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ،ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻱ ﻪ
ﻮﺟﻭ ﻩﺪـﻴﭽﻴﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻥﺪﻣﺁ ﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﻭ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻪﻧﻮﮔﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺍﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﻞﻜـﺸﻣ ـﻨﻛ
ﺪ .
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﻲـﻔﻄﻟ ﺭﻮﺴﻓﺮﭘ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﺘﺴﺨﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ 1965
ﺪـﺷ ﻲـﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻩ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻥﺪﻴﺸﻛ ﺶﻟﺎﭼ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻜﻔﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻫﺍﺭ ،ﻲﻳﻭﺩﻭﺩ ﻖﻄﻨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛ ﻱ
ﺩﺎﻧ ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻛﺎﺣ ﻖﻴﻗ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻲـﻣ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﻫﺩ
.
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﻱﺃﺭ ﻩﺪـﻳﺪﭘ ﻚﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺎﻳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﻭﺩﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﺪـﻫﺩ
، ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱ
ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ،ﻩﺪﻳﺪﭘ ﺎﻳ ﻲﺷ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻫﺎﮕﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻱﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻟﻻﺪﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﺮﻜﻔﺗ ﻥﺩ
ﻲ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ . ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻱ
ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺎـﻴﻨﺑ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻖﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺮﻛ ﺩ : ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ
ﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻚﻴـﺳﻼﻛ ﻦﻴ
ﻭ ﺪـﻧﺍ
1-Weinberg.
2-Heterogeneous.
ﺳﺩ ﻪﺘ ﻲﺘﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻥﺎﺑﺯ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﺧﺎﻨـﺷ ﻥﺎـﺑﺯ ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻖﻄﻨﻣ
ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ،ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺝﺎﺘﻨﺘـﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺶﻴـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﺯﺍ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ،ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻪﻛ )
،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻨﺷ ﻖﺣ 1386
.(
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎـﻛ ﻩﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ
ﻴﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻩﻮ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺵﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮـﻨﺘﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
) ،ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﻲﻠﻗ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﻜﺷ 2012
.(
ﻟﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ ﻲ
ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻡﺎـﻬﺑﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ؛ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺭﺎـﺑ ﻱ ﻱ
ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ
ﻏ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻗﺩﺎﻧ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻄﻗﺮﻴ
، ﺪـﻨﻤﺗﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﺑﺍ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺕﺎﻴـﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﺍﺬـﻟ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺖﻗﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺯﻮـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﻮـﻨﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻱ ﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻱ
ﺕ
ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪـﻛ ، ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻱ
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
.
2 - ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ًﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪـﻣ
ﺎـﻫ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻪﺘـﺴﺴﮔ ﻱ ﻩﺪـﺷ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻫﺎﮔ ﻭ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ًﻻﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲ
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺐﺒـﺳ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ
ﻲﻳﺁﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ1
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ
ﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻩ
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻱﺎﻨﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻛ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻪﺘـﺴﺴﮔ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﻥﺩﺎﻓ ﻚﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ2
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ .
ﻱﻭ ﺩﺎـﻘﺘﻋﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻥﺁ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ
،
ﺩﺮﻓ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻡﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ .
ﻲﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺢﻳﺮﺻ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ : ୧୨ൌ Ƚ ɀ୦୨ ୧ ୨ ɔ୨ ɂ୧୨ (1)
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ୧୨
ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ
ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺮـﻓ ﻦﻴﻣﺍ
ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻦﻴـﻣﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ
Ƚ . ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ،ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺎﻳ ୦୨
ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﻦﻴﻣﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ୧،
ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
،ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺍ ୨
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎـﺳ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ୨
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱ
ﻱﺍ ﻦﻴﻣﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ
. ﻲﺗﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ
1 - ﻲﻣ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺁ
ﻱ 4 ) ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﻲﻠﻗ
، 1379 ، ﻡﻭﺩ ﻞﺼﻓ ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
2-Mcfaden.
ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﺮـﻫ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻭﺩ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :
୧ൌ ሺ୧ሻ ε୧ ൌ ͳǡʹ (2) ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻪﭼ ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱ .
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ :
) 3 ሺଵሻ ɂଵ ܸሺଶሻ ɂଶ (
) 4 (
ሺଵሻ െ ሺଶሻ ɂଶെ ɂଵ
) 5 (
ሾെሺɂଵെ ɂଶሻ ሺଶሻ െ ሺଵሻሿ
) 6 ଵൌ ሾሺଵሻ െ ሺଶሻ] (
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻫﺩ
ﺍﺭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ
ﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺭﺩ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﺘـﺴﺴﮔ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺐﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ .
ﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻪ
ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ،ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻱ
ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱ .
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﻝﺎـﻣﺮﻧ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ
ﺖﻴﺑﻭﺮﭘ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻚﻴﺘﺴﺟﻻ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ1
ﺖـﻴﺟﻻ ﻝﺪـﻣ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ2
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺁ
. ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻣ ،ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺭﺎﮕﭘﺁ )3
1977 (،
ﺲﻣﺎﻴﻠﻳﻭ )4
1979 ( ﻭ ﻥﻮﺴﻜﻴﻟﺍ )5
1981 ( ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ .
ﻪﻧﺎﮔﺪﻨﭼ ﺖﻴﺟﻻ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺐﻛﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ6
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ .
ﻲﺗﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻝﻼﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ
ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﺎـﺑ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺒﻧ ﻕﺩﺎـﺻ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣﺎـﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ
، ﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻪﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳ
ﺩﺮﻛ . ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﺖﻧﻮﻜﺳ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺮﻬﺷ ﻝﻭﺍ ሺሻ
ﻪـﻠﺤﻣ ﺲﭙـﺳ ، ﺖﻧﻮﻜـﺳ ﻱ
ሺሻ ﺮـﺧﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ሺሻ
ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻲﻠﮕﻴﻳﻮﻛ )7
1985 (،
ﻪﻠﺤﻣ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻧﻮﻜﺳ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺮﻬﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ
୬
ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻪـﻠﺤﻣ ﻱ
୧
ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻥﺎﻤﺘﺧﺎﺳ :
) 7 ( ሺǡ ሻ ൌ భ୦ାమ୦Τσ ୧ భ୦ାమ୦
1-Probit Model.
2-Logit Model . 3-Kain and Apgar.
4- Williams.
5-Ellickson.
6-Nested Multinomial Logit Model (NMLM).
7-Quigley .
ﻥﺩﺎﻓ ﻚﻣ ﻭ ﻚﻴﻨﻣﻭﺩ )1
1975 (،
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺭﻭﺁ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ :
) 8 ሺǡ ሻ ൌ ሺǡሻభషಐሾσ ୧ ሺሺǡሻభషಐሻሿ (
ିൗሾσ σ ሺౠǡሻభషಐሿሺଵିሻ
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ሺǡ ሻ
، ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ﻪـﻠﺤﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺍ
ﻱ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻦﻴـﻣﺍ
،ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ Ʌ
ﻪﺑﺎﺸﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻭ2
ሺǡ ሻ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻭ ﻪـﻠﺤﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
ﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴ .
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺭﺩ
، ﻩﺪﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻞﺤﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻭ ﮓـﻧژ
ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ )3
2006 (،
ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺪﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱ
AMM4 ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ
ﺪﻧﺍ . ﺮﺑ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ
ﺐﻴﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻲﻨﺤﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ -
ﻩﺭﺎﺟﺍ ، ﻞﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻬـﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻨﻨﻛ
ﺪ . ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺎﻤﻟﺎﭘ )5
2007 (،
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺡﺮﻃ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺪﻣ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻱ
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﺑ ﻖﺑﺎـﻄﻣ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻪﺘﺴﺴﮔ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻑﺮﺻ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
.
گﺮﺑﺭﻭﻮﻴﻧ ﻭ ﮓﻴﺘﺳﻻ )6
1993 ( ﻭ ﻲﺳﺯﺎﻴﭘ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ
)7
2003 ( ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺑﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺖﻴﻌﻄﻗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻧﺍ
.
ﻩﺩﺍﺯ ﻲﻠﻗ )
1379 (،
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺍ
"
ﻥﺍﺮـﻬﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ
"
ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎـﭼ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ .
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻱ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﻱ
ﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺴﺴﮔ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺪ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺵﺭﻮﺗ ﻊﻓﺭ
، 8
ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻚﻴﻧﺍﺪﻫ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ،
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ9
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .
ﮓﻧﺎﻴﻟ ﻭ ﮓﻨﻳﺩ )10
2005 (،
ﺭﺩ ﻚﻳﮋﺗﺍﺮﺘـﺳﺍ ﻚﻳﺮـﺷ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻲﻟﺪـﻣ
ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺑ
ﻪ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺎـﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ
ﻞــﺣ ﻭ ﻝﺁ ﻩﺪــﻳﺍ ﻞــﺣ ﻡﻮــﻬﻔﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ ﺲﭙــﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪــﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﻲــﭘﻭﺮﺘﻧﺁ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻩﺪـﻳﺍ
11ﻝﺁ
، ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﮔﺮﻫ ﻱ ﺎـﺗ
ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﮔ ﻭ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺏﻮـﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻫ
ﺖﻳﻮﻟﻭﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ
ﻧﺍ ﺪ .
1-Domenic and McFadden.
2-Inclusive Value.
3- Zheng, et al.
4- Alonso, Mills and Muth.
5-Palma, et al.
6- Lustig and Nieuwerburgh.
7- Piazzesi, et al.
8- Self Selection Model . 9-Hedonic Approach.
10-Ding and Liang . 11- Anti-id eal Solution.
ﺕﻮﻧﻭﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ1
) 2010 ( ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓAHP
TOPSIS2
ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻝﻮﺒﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻬﺷ ﻪ
ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﻭ ﻲﻤﻳﺮﻛ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ
) 1389 ( ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﻪﻴﻔﺼﺗ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻉﻮﻧ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﻴﻔﺼﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺯﺍﻮﻫ ﻙﺮﻬـﺷ ﺏﻼـﺿﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍAHP
ﺮﻛ ﻩﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ .
3 - ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ـﻤﻛ ﺶﻳﺎـﻤﻧ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﻨﻤﺗﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﺑﺍ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺪـﻣﺁ ﻖﺋﺎـﻓ ﻭ ﻲ
ﺶﻟﺎﭼ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻗﺩ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
. ﺎـﻳ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﺖﻗﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ3
. ﻲﺜﻠﺜﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﻪـﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻭ4
5ﻱﺍ
ﺶﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺞﻳﺍﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
. ﻩﻮـﺤﻧ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻒﻳﺭﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
) ﻲـﺟﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺭﺫﺁ
، 1387 ( ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ.
ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﻢﻫ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ
ﻱ ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺍ
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ .
3 - 1 - ﺵﻭﺭ GMIR
ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ،ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﺏﺍﻮﺟ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺩ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺟﻭﺮﺧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ
ﻲﻣ
،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺼﺗ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻢﻴﻤ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﮔﺪﻴﭽﻴﭘ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻲﻌﻄﻗ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﺍﺭ6
ﺪﻨﻫﺩ . ﻲـﻌﻄﻗ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺍ ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ .
ﻪﻴـﺴﻫ ﻭ ﻦﭼ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
7
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻨـﺸﻴﭘ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ GMIR8
ـﻴﻣﺎﻧ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺪ ،ﺩﻮـﺷ ﺮـﮔﺍ
ൌ ሺ ǡ ǡ ǡ Ǣ ሻୖ
ﻚﻳ ﻪﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻱﺍ
، ﻥﺁ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻱﺩ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻩﺎﮔ ﻩﺪـﺷ 9
ﻱ
ﻥﺁ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ :
) 9 ሺሻ ൌୡାଶୟାଶୠାୢ (
1-Önüt.
2- Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution.
3-Fuzzy Numbers . 4-Triangular . 5-Trapezoidal . 6- Crisp Values.
7-Chen and Hesih .
8-Graded Mean Integration Representation . 9-Defuzzified Value.
3 - 2 - ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﺎﻣﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
، ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﭼ ﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻱ
ﺰﮔﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻥﺪﻳ
ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻥﻮﻨﻛﺎـﺗ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺎـﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲـﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻲﻋﻮـﻨﺘﻣ ﻱ .
ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻦﻤﻓﺎـﻛ
1
) 1991 (،
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺵﺮﺑ ﺎﻔﻟﺁ ﻱ
ﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ2
ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﺶﺠﻨـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮ ﻱ
ﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻪ
ﺍ ﺪﻧ .
3ﻮﻴﻟ ) 1992 (،
ﺚـﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻪﺳ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ . ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻢﻴﻫﺎﻔﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ4
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺎﻤﮕﻴﺳ ﻱ ﺎﻤﮕﻴﺳ ﻱ
5
ﺩﻮﺑ ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ . ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺮﭙﻠﻴﻫ
)6
1997 ( ﻭ ﻪﻴﺴﻫ ﻭ ﻦﭼ )
1998 (،
ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ
ȁሺሻ െ ሺሻȁ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ
ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻭ
ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﻭ ﺵﺮﺑ ﺎﻔﻟﺁ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻞﺻﺍ ﻪﺑ7
ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ چﻮﻠﺑ ﻱ )8
1999 ( ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺮـﺑ ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲـﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺖـﺨﻳﺭ ﻱ
ﻲﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﻪﺑ9
ﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
ﻦﻴﺘﺴﻛﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺮﺗ )10
2002 (،
ﻝﺍﺮـﮕﺘﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻥﻭﺯﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻱ
ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻚـﻳ ﺎـﺗ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻔﻟﺁ ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺪـﻧﺍ
.
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﺸﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻜﻳﺭﺪﭘ
)11
2007 (،
ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﺳ
ﻱﺎﻫ
12ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ .
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻌﻄﻗ ﻲـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺩﺪـﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻪﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻦﻤﺴﻛﻭ )13
1998 (،
ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﺩﺪـﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻱ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ :
) 10 ȟሺρǡ ɋሻሺሻ ൌ ሼሾρሺሻǡ ɋሺሻሿሽ (
) 11 פ െ פൌ (
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ .
ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺑﺍﺮﻛﺎﭼ )14
2006 (،
ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ،ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺩﺪـﻋ ﻭﺩ ﺵﺮﺑ ﺎﻔﻟﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻴﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻦ
ﻭ ﻦﭼ ﻱﺍﻭ ﻲﺗ )15
2006 ( ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ .
1-Kaufmann et al.
2- α-Cut.
3- Liu.
4-normal distance.
5-sub-σ-distance.
6-Heilpern.
7-Extension Principle.
8-Bloch.
9-mathematical morphology.
10-Tran and Duckstein.
11-Pedrycz.
12- Fuzzy C-means.
13-Voxman.
14-Chakraborty.
15-T.Y. Chen.
ﻭ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺖﺳﺩ ﻱﺩﻮﻬﺷ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
ﻱ
ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﮓﻧﻭ ﻭ ﻦﭼ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺷﻭﺭ ﻭGMIR
)1
2008 ( ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻉﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺪـﻧﺍ
،
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .
ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺵﻭﺭ
، ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪـﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺩﺪـﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ
ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺮﺗ
، ﻱﺩﻮﻬﺷ ﻲﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭ ﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗ
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﺭﺩ
ﻪـﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ൌ ሺଵǡ ଶǡ ଷǡ ସሻ ﻱﺍ
ൌ ሺଵǡ ଶǡ ଷǡ ସሻ ﻭ
ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑGMIR
ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ሺሻ ሺሻ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻭ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ
୧ ୧ ﻭ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ
ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ :
) 12
୧ൌ ሺ୧െ ሺሻ െ ሺሻ ୧ሻȀʹǡ ൌ ͳǡ ʹǡ ͵ǡ Ͷ (
) 13 ୧ൌ ȁሺሻ െ ሺሻȁ ୧ǡ ൌ ͳǡ ʹǡ ͵ǡ Ͷ (
ﻥﺁ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻩﺎﮔ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﻭ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ൌ ሺ ଵǡ ଶǡ ଷǡ ସሻ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
4 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻱ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ .
ﻱﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺩ
ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻬﻳﺪـﺑ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺘﺴﻫ
ﺪﻨ . ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎـﻫ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﺮـﻫ ﻱ
ሺଵǡ ଶǡ ǥ ǡ ୬ሻ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ؛ﺩ ୧
ﻪﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻱﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ .
ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ
ﻧ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻲﻤ
ﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﻨ . . ﻲﻣﻼﻛ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻔﻴﻃ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ2
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺎﻫ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻒﻴﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ሺଵǡ ଶǡ ǥ ǡ ୬ሻ
ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺯﺍ ﻲـﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺮـﻫ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺶﺠﻨـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻔﻴﻃ
ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
:
} ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺪﻗﺎﻓ ،ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻢﻛ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ ،ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻢﻛ ،ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ ،ﻢﻬﻣ ،ﻢﻬﻣ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ ،ﻢﻬﻣ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻨﻴﺑ {
ﺟ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻬ
؛ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺁ
ﻩﺎﮔ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪ
ﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮ ﺩﻮﺷ :
ሺ୩ଵǡ ୩ଶǡ ǥǡ ୩୬ሻ ൌ ͳǡ ʹǡ ǥ ǡ (14)
1- Chen and Wang.
2-Linguistic Values.
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎﻫ ﺎﺗ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻱ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ
ሺ୧ǡ ୩୧ሻ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲـﺷﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
، ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ . ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﻱ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﻭﺯﻮﻣ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
:
) 15 ୩ൌ σ ୬୧ୀଵ ୧ٔ ሺ୧ǡ ୩୧ሻ ൌ ͳǡʹǡ ǥ ǡ (
ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﻪـﺘﻓﺭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ
ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦـﻳ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻞﭙﻴﺴﻨﻳﺮﭘ ﻦﺸﻜﻧﺎﻓ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ1
) ﻦـﭼ ، 1985 .(
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣGMIR
୩
ﻲﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ
ﻪﺒﺗﺭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮـﺧ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲـﺷﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ
ﻭ ﻦﭼ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻴﺴﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ 1998 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻉﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ؛
ﺩﻮـﺷ ) ،ﻪﻴـﺴﻫ ﻦـﭼ
1998 .(
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻬﻳﺪﺑ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ
ﺮﺗ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ
ﺮـﺗ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﻠـﺻﺎﻓ ﻦﻳ
ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺎﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺑ ﺷﺎ ﺪ .
5 - ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ
5 - 1 - ﻮﺤﻧ ﻩ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻱﺩﺭﻭﺁﺩﺮﮔ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ؛ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺡﺮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻣﺎﻨـﺸﺳﺮﭘ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﺳ 1385 ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺡﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ
.
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻑﺭﺎﻌﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺧﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻣﺎﻨـﺸﺳﺮﭘ
ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻦـﺷﻭﺭ
ﻲﻟﻭ ،ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻦﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺪﺣ ﺎﺗ
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ2
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ .
ﻲﻟﻮـﻤﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻚـﻳ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺡﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﺮﻬﺷ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻛﺎﺳ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ؛ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
3ﻱﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﻳﺁ .
ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻪ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻙﻮﻠﺑ ،ﻝﻭﺍ .
ﻙﻮـﻠﺑ ﺖـﺳﺮﻬﻓ ﻡﺮـﻓ ﻞـﻳﺎﻓ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫ
ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻫﺎﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻱﺭﺎﻤﺷﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺮﻬﻓ 1381
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ . 4
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺑ
ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺪﻤﻫ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ 80
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻙﻮﻠﺑ .
ﻠﺣﺮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ
ﻙﻮﻠﺑ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﻙﻮـﻠﺑ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ،ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ،ﻙﻮﻠﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻚﻴﺗﺎﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻩﺪﺷ
ﺲﭙـﺳ ﻭ
1-Function Principle.
2-Proxy.
3-Two Stage Sampling .
4 - ﻪﻠﺠﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻱﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧﻱ
1385
، ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ .
ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺞﻨﭘ ،ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻙﻮﻠﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺮﻳﺍﺩ ﻚﻴﺗﺎﻤﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
1ﻱﺍ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
5 - 2 - ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎـﺑ ،ﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺍ :
1 - ﻩﺭﺎﺟﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ
ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻬﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ
ﻩﺭﺎﺟﺍ ﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻬﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﺟﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﻴﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﻲﻌﻗ
ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﺴﺘﺣﺍ ﻱﺎﻬﺑ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻲﻜﻠﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . Rent) (
2 - ﺎﻨﺑﺮﻳﺯ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱ
ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻊﺑﺮﻣ ﺮﺘﻣ
. Lotsize) (
3 - ﻕﺎﺗﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ . Room) (
4 - ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱ
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ . (Exp)
5 - ﺮﻬﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺎﺗ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ،2
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻪ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ، ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ 3
ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ . (CBD)
6 - ﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻲﺒﻧﺎﺟ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻲﻧﻮ
ﻲﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
. ﺮﻴﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ :
ﻲﻳﺎﻨﺷﻭﺭ ،ﻪﻟﺎﺑﺯ ﺮﺗﻮﺷ ،ﺭﻮﺴﻧﺎﺳﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺰﻬﺠﻣ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺮﮕﺘﻓﺭ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺍﺮﺳ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ ،ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﭘﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ًﺎﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﺑ ﻡﺎﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ژﺭﺎﺷ ﻱ ﻪﺑ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﺧﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺰﻫ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ . FacExp) (
7 - ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺱﺭﺍﺪﻣ ﻲﺷﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺁ ﻱ
ﻲﺷﺯﻮﻣ
ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ
. Edue) (
8 - ﺖﺳﺮﭘﺮﺳ ﻦﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻦﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻩ
ﺖﺳﺍ . (Age)
9 - ﺖﺳﺮﭘﺮﺳ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ
ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ
. Edu) ( 1-Circular Systematic Sampling.
2-Centeral BusinessDistance (CBD).
3-Proxy.
5 - 3 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﻣ
ﻫﺩ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﮕﻨﺗﺎﮕﻨﺗ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖﻧﻮﻜﺳ ﻞﺤﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ .
ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ
ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ـﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺎﻳ ﻢﻛ ﻲﻠﻳﻻﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻪﻛ ،ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺭﺎﺟ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ1
،ﺪ
ﻖﺑﺎﻄﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
)
2ﻮﻓ ،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ 2000
.(
ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺩﺪﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﺘﻣ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ًﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻫﺎﻤﻫﺎﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻳﺁ
ﻑﺮﻃﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻚـﻫﺩ ﺐـﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺮﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 1 ( ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺮﻄﺳ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻚﻫﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﺭﺩ
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻥﻮﺘﺳ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻚـﻫﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ
، ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ
"
ﻱﺩﻭﺪﺣ
"
ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺁ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧInco
ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻝﺎـﻳﺭ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﺐﺴﺣﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
.
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻚﻫﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ
ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ Inco
Rent Lotsize Room
Exp CBD FacExp Edue
Edu Age
32 6
6 70 3
15 190 8
45 4 50
35 13
5 75 3
19 500 35
50 5 40
33 18
6 90 3
22 400 20
70 5 45
37 23
7 87 3
25 350 5
90 5 48
34 30
8 95 3
30 500 30
75 5 48
38 30
9 105 4
30 550 90
100 7 50
40 40
9 95 4
35 650 80
190 7 45
39 50
12 110 4
40 750 90
130 7 48
39 65
13 120 4
50 950 45
320 9 50
37 155
16 130 5
60 1200 105
350 10 50
ﺬﺧﺄﻣ : ﺤﺗ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻴﻘ
ﻖ
6 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﻦﻜﺴﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﺖﺷﺬﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺒﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱ
ﻪﺑ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ
ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﺳﺭ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻥﺁ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺪﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ
1-Housing Services 2-Fu
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﻫﺩ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ
ﻻﺎﺑ ﺎـﺑ ﻦﻜـﺴﻣ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺝﺭﺪﻨﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ )
2 ( ﺪﻨﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻧﻮﻜﺴﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ .
ﻝﺍﻮﺌﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺎﺟ
ﺖﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎـﺧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ؟ﺪﻧﺮﺗ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻞﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﺎﻫ
.
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻩﺭﺎﺟﺍ ﺎﻬﺑ ﺎﻨﺑﺮﻳﺯ ﻕﺎﺗﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﻱ
ﺮﻬﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺎﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ
ﻱ ﻲﺷﺯﻮﻣﺁ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺍ
ﻲﺒﻧﺎﺟ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻦﺳ
ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ًﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ 9 ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ًﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ
100 ﺶﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
3 ﺎﺗ
ًﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ 33
ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻴﻣ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﻢﻛ
ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ 600000
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ًﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ
460 ﺭﺍﺰﻫ
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ًًﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ 50000
ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
6 ﻝﺎﺳ ﻢﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ
50 ﻝﺎﺳ
ﻥﺯﻭ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻨﻴﺑ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻢﻛ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻢﻛ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻢﻛ
ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ
ﺬﺧﺄﻣ : ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ
ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻑﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ًﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻦﺳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻬﻳﺪﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ ؛ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ
ﻱﺩﺮـﻓ ﻱﺩﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺸﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ
. ﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﺩﺍﺮـﻓﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺢﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﺳ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﺎﺗ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
ﺖﻛﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻬـﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺮﺗ
.
ﻢﻫ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺕﻼﻴﺼﺤﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺎـﻨﺑﺮﻳﺯ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﻧﻮﻜـﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﮔﺪـﻧﺯ ﺮـﺗ
ﻱ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺮﺗ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ
. ﺍﺭ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
1.
ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ،ﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻪﭼ ﻥﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻝﻭﺍﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ ،ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﻫ ﻲﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ )
1 ( ﻭ ) 2 ( ﺎـﺑ
ﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ
،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺍ ﻥﺁ
ﻩﺎﮔ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ
"
ﻢﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ...
"
،
"
ًﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ ...
"
ﻭ
"
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ...
"
ﻪـﻘﻧﺯﻭﺫ ﻱﺯﺎـﻓ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ሺͲǡͲǡ ǡ ͳǤʹሻ ﻱﺍ
ሺͲǤͻǡ ǡ ǡ ͳǤͳሻ ، ﻭ
ሺǡ ͳǤͳǡ ͳǤͳǡ ͳǤʹሻ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻝﻭﺍﺪـﺟ ) 3 ( ﻭ ) 4 (،
ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻞﻳﺪـﺒﺗ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻝﻭﺍﺪـﺟ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺮـﺧﺁ ﺮﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ .
1 - ﻩﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻉﻮﺟﺭ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ
1 ﻭ 3 .
