ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ
ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ
ﻱﻭﺪﻬﻣ ﻢﺳﺎﻘﻟﺍﻮﺑﺍ
١
*
ﻩﺪﻜﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
Mahadavi @ut.ac.ir
ﻮﻟﺪﻤﺤﻣﺰﻳﺰﻋ ﺪﻴﻤﺣ
ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ
ﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﻭﺰﻗ ﻲﻨﻴﻤﺧ ﻡﺎﻣﺍ ﻲﻠ
h_azizmohammadlou@yahoo.com ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
28 / 6 / 90 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
23 / 8 / 91
ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱ
ﺪﺸﺨﺑ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ .
ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ
ﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈ
ﻲﻨﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻲـﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻭ ﻲـﻳ ﻩ
ﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ 1385 - 1345 ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﺘﺟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺩﺎـﻗ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤ ـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ
ﻭ ﺕﺪ
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱ .
ﻑﺮـﻃ ﺯﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ،ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺭﻮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺎﻫ
ﻳ ـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲ ﻪ
ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﻱ ﻥﺁ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺷ ﻮ ﺩ
، ﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﻊﻳﺮـﺴﺗ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺖـﻳﻮﻘﺗ ،ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺖـﻬﺟ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺳﺍ ﻁﺮـﺷ ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﻼﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻴﻣ ،ﺩﺮﺧ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻲـﺳﺎ
ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ : JEL
O3, M14, D71
ژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻩ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ: ﻱ ﺵﻭﺭ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ،ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻢﻫ
ﺍﺮﮔ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ،ﻲﻳ
* - ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ .
1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺖﻓﺮﺸﻴﭘ ﺶﻴـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﻞـﻣﺎﻋ ﺎـﻳ ﻮﻟﻮـﺳ ﺪﻧﺎﻤـﺴﭘ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺎـﺑ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﻫﺎﻇ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺗ ،ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﺢﻴـﺿﻮ ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻥﺁ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻦﻴـﻴﺒﺗ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﺪﻧﺎﻤـﺴﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺸﺨﺑ ،ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻦﻴﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻱژﻮـﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺮ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮔ .
ﺐﺣﺎﺻ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻒﻳﺭﺎﻌﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻥﻮـﭼ ﻲـﻧﺍﺮﻈﻧ
ﻦـﻤﻠﻛ )1
1990 (،
ﺎـﻣﺎﻳﻮﻛﻮﻓ
2
) 1995 (،
ﺎﻨﺗﺎﭘ
3ﻡ ) 1995 ( ﻥﻮﺘﺴﻛﺎﭘ )4
1999 (،
ﻁﺎﺒﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺎﺑ ﻪﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻜﺒﺷ ،ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳ ﻪ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨـﺷ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮـﻗ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﺭﺎﺠﻨﻫ ، ﻢـﻬﻣ
ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ
ﺩﺮﻛﺭﺎــﻛ ﻣ ﻂــﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻪــﺑ ﻥﺪﻴــﺸﺨﺑ ﻡﺎﺠــﺴﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻞﻴﻬــﺴﺗ ﻥﺁ
ﻭ ﺡﻮﻄــﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺮــﻓﺍ ﻦﻴــﺑ ﺩﻮــﺟﻮ
ﺖﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ،5
ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻭ6
ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ7
. ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ
ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﺎﻫ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺵﺩﺮﮔ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻱ ﻲـﻣ
ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﻜـﺷﺍ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻞـﻤﻜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ
ﻞﻤﻋ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﻛ
ﺶﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺩ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ
ﺭﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻱ .
ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻱﺮﺗﺎﭼ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍﺮﮕﻨﻟ ﻪﻛ )8
1999 ( ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
، ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭ
، ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ
» ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺎـﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ «9
ﻲـﻤﻧ ﻲـﻘﻠﺗ ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻜﻠﺑ ،
» ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻲﻤﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ «10
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﺒﻌﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ
ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻭ ﻞـﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﺭﻭ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ .
ﻦﻣﺮــﺒﻠﻳﺯ ﻭ ﺖــﺳﺎﺟ ،ﺭﺪــﻓ )11
1985 (،
ﻲــﻣ ﻥﺎــﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺏﺬــﺟ ﺩﺎــﻌﺑﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲــﺧﺮﺑ ﻪــﻛ ﺪــﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻝﺪﻣ
ﺎﻫ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ ﻡﻮـﺳﺮﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻨـﺳ ﻱ ﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺍ
ﺩﺭﺍﺪ
ﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﺍﻮﻧﺎﺧ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴ
ﻭ ﻲـﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ ،ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
1-Coleman.
2-Fukuyama.
3-Putnam.
4-Paxton.
5-Bonding Social Capital.
6-Bridging Social Capital.
7-Linking Social Capital.
8-Lengrand & Chatri.
9-Additional Productivity of Operations.
10- Systemic Productivity of Relations.
11-Feder, Just, and Zilberman.
ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ .
ﺯﺮـﮔﻭﺭ ﺩﺎـﻘﺘﻋﺍ ﻪـﺑ )1
1995 (،
ﻪﻜﺒـﺷ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﺒﻣ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﺮـﻛ
ﻩﺩ ﻭ ﺪـﻧﺍ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﻳ
،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻪﺘﺴﻫ ﻱ ﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻪ
ﺗ ﻜﺸ ﻴ ﻲﻣ ﻞ ﻫﺩ ﻨ ﺪ .
ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻧﻮﮔﺎﻧﻮﮔ
ﻪﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲ ﻱ
ﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ .
ﻪﻛ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲـﻣ
ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ
ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﻮـﺳ
) 1384 ( ، ﻱﺮـﻴﻣﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻤﺣﺭ )
1385 ( ، ﻲﻧﺎـﻧﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1385 ( ،
ﺑﺁﺯﻭﺮﻴﻓ ﻱﺩﺎ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1385 (،
ﻱﺮﮕﺴﻋ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻴﺣﻮﺗ ﺎـﻴﻧ
) 1386 ( ، ﻲﻧﺎـﻤﺣﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ
) 1386 ( ، ﻱﺭﺪﻔﺻ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1387 ( ، ﺮﻓﺪﻳﻮﻣ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1388 ( ، ﻲﻧﺎـﻗﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻖـﺣ
) 1388 ( ، ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻌﺷ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﻴﻠﺳ )
1388 (،
ﺭﻮﭘﺮﻈﻧ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1389 ( ، ﻲﻧﺎﺧﺮﻴﺷ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ
) 1390 ( ﻭ ﻲﻤﺳﺎﻗ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ )
1390 ( ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ ﺮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻘﻴﻗﺩ
ﺶﻘﻧ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭﺎـﻨﻓ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ
ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻴﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻪﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ .
ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ 2
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺎـﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ 3
ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻚـﻳ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﻩﻮﺤﻧ
ﻱ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻨـﺻ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺪـﺷ ﻲﺘﻌ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ . ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ 4
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻩ
ﺎﻫ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻱ
ﻲـﻨﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻲﮕﻧﻮـﮕﭼ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ،ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻲـﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ
ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ .
2 - ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻲﻃ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ ﻝﻮﺤﺗ ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﻢﺸﭼ
ﺮﻴﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻱ .
ﻝﻮـﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ
1950 ، ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘﺎﻧ ﺩﺍﺪﻳﻭﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺪﺷ
ﻩ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻞﻜـﺷ ﺶـﻧﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻔﻧﺍ ﻥﺎﻘﻘﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻋﺮﺘﺨ ﺪﺷ
،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻩﺯﻭﺮﻣﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭ
ﺩ ﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻒﻴﻃ ﻞ
. ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ :
ﻝﻭﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻭ ﻪﺘـﺴﺴﮔ ﺮـﻣﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ
1- Rogers.
ﻪﻛ ﻱﺩﺍﺮﻔﻧﺍ ﻂﻘﻓ
ﻞﺣ ﻩﺍﺭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺎﻫ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻨﻓ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻡﻭﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ
ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺱﻮﻤﻠﻣ ﻝﺎﻜﺷﺍ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ )
ﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ،ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ (...
ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ
، ﺶـﻘﻧ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﻪـﻜﻠﺑ
ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺩﻮﻬﺸﻣﺎﻧ ﻱ ﻪﺑ
ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺪﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ )
ﻭ ﺍﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ،ﻱﺭﺪـﻨﻟ
ﻱﺭﺎﻣﻻ 2000
1( . ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺭﻮـﻬﻇ ﺐـﻟﺎﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﻮﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺗﻭﺎـﻔﺘ
ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺪﺷ
ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ ﻲﻣ
ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﺞﻨـﭘ ﻪـﺑ
ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺮـﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺷﺍ .
ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻦﻴـﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺶـﻘﻧ ،2
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ،3
ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱ ﺶـﻘﻧ
ﻩﺮﻴﺠﻧﺯ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺁﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ
4ﻱﺭﻭ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ، ﻦﻴـﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻪﻜﺒـﺷ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻧﺍﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻭ5
ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻱ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ .6
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻲﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻔﻬﻧ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ
ﻢﻬﻣ ﻳﺮﺗ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﻦ
ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ . ،ﻲـﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺖﻳﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﺳﺎﻛ
ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1960 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ .
ﺮﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺎﻫ ﻢﻫ
ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﺭﺎﻤـﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﻭ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﻲﻣ
،ﺩﻭﺭ ﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻪﻛ ﺕ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧﺪﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ
. ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺮﻴﺠﻧﺯ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1980 ﺡﺮـﻄﻣ
ﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻪ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﺱﻮﻤﻠﻣ ﻱ ﺱﻮـﻤﻠﻣ ﺮـﻴﻏ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻦﻴﻣﺄﺗ
ﻨﻨﻛ ﺗ ﻥﺎﮔﺪ ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﺒ ﻮﺷ
ﺩ . ﺮـﺧﺍﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻫﺩ
ﻱ
1980 ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻪﻫﺩ
ﻱ 1990 ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ، ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﺐـﺗﺎﻜﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ
» ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱ «7
ـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪ
) ﻝﺍﻭﺪـﻧﻻ 19888
ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﻧ ، 19939
ﻭ
ﺖﺴﻳﻮﻛﺩﺍ 199710
.(
ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﻮﺼﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﻱ ﻖ
ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻪـﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻝﺩﺎـﺒﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ
ﺭﺩ ﻥﻻﺎـﻌﻓ ﻭ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻋﻮـﻨﺘﻣ
1- Landry, Amara & Lamary.
2-Enginearing Theories of Innovation.
3-Market Pull Theories of Innovation.
4-Chain- Link Theories of Innovation.
5-Technological Network Theories of Innovation.
6-Social Network Theories of Innovation.
7-Innovation Systems.
8-Lundvall.
9-Nelson.
10-Ediquist.
ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺩﺎﻳ ﻲﺣﺍﻮﻧ
ﻞﻣﺎﻜﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ
ﻪﺷﻮﺧ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﻨﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ . ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻱ ﻲﻤﻳﺪﻗ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺮﺗ
ﻱ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻱ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮﺗﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺪﻧﺍ
. ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ
ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﻔﻬﻧ ﻲﻣ
ﻱﺯﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﺣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻱﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲﻃﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ ﻱﺩﺮـﺒﻫﺍﺭ
ﻲﻨﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ .
ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺎﻴﻧ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻴﻓﺮﻇ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺪﻨﻣﺯ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺰﺑﺍ )
ﻱﺮﺗﺎﭼ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺍﺮﮕﻨﻟ 1999
.(
ﻖﻓﺆﻣ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ،ﻲﻠﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺷﻼﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ
ﻂﺒﺗﺮـﻣ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ
ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﺠﻨﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﺷﻼﺗ ،
ﻞﻜﺷ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ
» ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ «1
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ )
ﺖﺴﻳﻮﻜﻳﺩﺍ 1997
ﻝﺍﻭﺪﻧﻻ ، 199
،
ﻥﻮﺴﻠﻧ 1993 .(
ﻱﺭﻭﺎـﻨﻓ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻠﻣﺎـﻜﺗ ﺩﺮـﻜﻳﻭﺭ ﺐﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ
) ﻥﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻮﻧﺎﺴﻴﭘ ،ﺲﻴﺗ 19972
( ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺎﺑ )
3ﺙﺭﻮﻧ 1990 ( ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ
،ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺁﺮﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭ ﺭﺎﻴـﺴﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺪﻨﻳ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﺣ .
ﺍﻮﺘﻴﭘﺎﻗﺁ )4
2003 (،
ﻖـﻄﻨﻣ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻋﺪﻣ
ﻲﮕﻧﻮـﮕﭼ ﻭ ﻲﻫﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﻲﻠﻣﺎـﻜﺗ ﺕﺍ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻠﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻥﺎﺸﻄﻴﺤﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ
، ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭﺭ ﻪﻜﺒـﺷ ﻡﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﻲـﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱﻭ ،ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺗ
ﻲ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺎـﮕﻳﺎﺟ ،ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ
ﺮﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩ ) ﻞﻜﺷ 1 .(
ﻊﺒﻨﻣ : ﺍﻮﺘﻴﭘ ﺎﻗﺁ ) 2003 (
ﻞﻜﺷ 1 - ﻜﺒﺷ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻪ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱ
1- National Innovation System.
2-Teece, Pisano and Schuen.
3-North.
4-Agapitova.
ﻜﺒﺷ ﻪ ﺎﻫ ﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﻖﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﻧ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﻭ ﻲـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺕﺎﻘ
ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻭ
ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﺣ
، ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻪﻜﻠﺑ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻱ
ﺭﻭ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
. ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻁﺮـﺷ ﺶﻴـﭘ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻖﻓﺆﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
. ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻢﻛ ،ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﻴ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺰﺋﺎﺣ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ .
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻜﺒﺷ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻪ
ﺎﻫ ﺖـﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻱ
ﻲـﻨﻳﺮﻓﺁ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻤﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻂﻴﺤﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻫﺍﺮﻓ ﺪﻨﻛ
. ﻞﻴﺼﻔﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺩ )
2 ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ .
ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ
) ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻢﻋﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭ
( ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺮﻓﺁ .
ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻝﺎﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺎـﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍﺮﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﻱ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺎـﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻓﺮـﻃ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱﺭﺎـﻛ ﺕﺎـﻔﻠﺨﺗ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺏﻮﺘﻜﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺍﺩﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
) ﺮﻔﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻙﺎﻧ
، 1
1997 .(
ﺯﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭﺭ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ
ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻴﺑ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ﻭ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺶ
ﺗ ﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮ ﻪ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﻑﺍﺪـﻫﺍ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ
ﻥﺁ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ،ﺖﺳﺎﻫ .
ﻞﻜﺷ 2 - ﻢﺴﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
1-Knack andKeefer.
ﺪﺷﺭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺎﻫﻪﻜﺒﺷ
ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻱ
ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻱ
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ
ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﺗ ﻲﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﺗ
ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻣ ﻭ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﻱ
ﻩژﻭﺮﭘ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺘﺧﺍ ﻖﺣ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ﻉﺍﺮ
ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻗ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻴﻣﻭﺩ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ
ﺯﺍ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ
ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﮔ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺗ
ﺪﻳﺁ . ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻪﻛ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺎـﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﺎـﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎـﻴﺣ ﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
،
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺬﮔ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﮔ ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ژﻭﺮﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻩ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻲـﻣ ﻖﻳﻮﺸﺗ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺪـﻨﻛ
) ﻞﻳﻭ ﻭ ﻙﺎﻣﻮﻛﺁ ،1
2006 .(
ﻢﻴـﻤﻌﺗ ﺩﺎـﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻡﻮـﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻡﺎﮕﻨﻫ ،ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ،
ﺶـﻧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎـﻬﻣ ﻥﺁ
ﺎـﻫ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﺒﻗ ﺖﺧﺎﻨﺷ ﻥﺁ
ﻢﻛ ﺎﻫ ﺮﺗ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ) ،ﺮﻔﻴﻛ ﻭ ﻙﺎﻧ 1997
(،
ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺎﻫ
ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ،
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ .
ﻲﻣ ﺕﺄﺸﻧ ﺖﻴﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺭﺮﻜﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
، ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ژﻭﺮﭘ
ﻩ ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ
ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﻻﺎـﺑ
ﻭﺭ ﺩ ) ﻭ ﻙﺎـﻣﻮﻛﺁ
،ﻞﻳﻭ 2006 .(
ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎـﻗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺍ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺛﺆـﻣ
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ . ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎـﻗ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺮـﻫ
ﺣ ﻭ ﺖﻴﻜﻟﺎﻣ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ﻭ ﺮﺗﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺟﺍ ﺖﻧﺎﻤـﺿ ﻭ ﺮﺗﺍﺭﺎﻛ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﻖ
ﻥﺁ ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺮـﺗ
ـﺷﺎﺑ ،ﺪ
ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ
ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻧﺍﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻲﻣ ﺱﺎﺴﺣﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻅﻮﻔﺤﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﺘﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻱ
ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻫ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﺖـﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ
ﺍﺬﻟ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﻲﻣ
ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺎﺷﺭﺎﻛ
ﺪﻨﻣ ﻮـﺷ ﺪﻧ ) ﻲﻨﻴﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ،2
2006 .(
ﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻪ
ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ .
3 - ﺩﺍﺩ ،ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻩ
ﺎﻫ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻭ
ﻮﭼ ﻲﻛ ﻥﺍﻮﻳ )3
2003 (،
ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ
، ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﻛ
ﺩ ﻚﻳ ﻖﻠﺧ ﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ
ﺮـﻣﻭﺭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻪﺑﺎـﺸﻣ ﻱﺪـﻨﻳﺍﺮﻓ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ )
1990 ( ﺰﻧﻮـﺟ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻭ )
1999 ( ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﭘ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻢﺘﺴﻴﺳ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻤﺘﺸﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺡﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ :
) 1 ( Y=K (u AL)a Y 1-a
) 2 (
K Y C KK
· = - - d
1-Akçomak and Weel.
2-Tabellini.
3-Youn K. Chou.
) 3 (
A
A B(u L) S A
· = h b y
) 4 (
s ˆ S
S P(u L) S K S
·= s j l- d
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 1 (،
ﻭﺭ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻂﺑﺍ
) 2 ( ﺎﺗ ) 4 ( ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ
ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ،ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ )
ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ( ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﻨﻫﺩ . ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎـﺑ
Y
ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ
،ﻞﻛ ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ K ﻪ
ﻱ
،ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧL
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳS ﻱ ،ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
،A B
ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘP A،ﻱﺭﻭ
،u uS Yﻭ ﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻤﻬﺳ u ﻪ
ﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻲ
ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ،ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻑﺮـﺼﻣC
K،ﻞﻛ ﻭ d dS
ﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻙﻼﻬﺘـﺳﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻭ ﻲـﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻪ
ﻱ ،ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ j
ﺭﺎﭘ ﺍ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺘﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ،ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
،a
،h
،b
،y
،s
l ﻭ ﺶـﺸﻛ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺰـﻴﻧ
ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ . ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻦﻴﺒﻣ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﻫ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﻥﻭﺮﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ
1. ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱ
) 3 (،
،ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮـﻧ ﺎـﻳ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ
ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪ ﻱ ﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻋ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺢﻄﺳ .
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻑﺮﻌﻣ A
ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻭ2
uAU
ﻥﺎﺸﻧﺰﻴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻪ
ﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺖـﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ .
ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ
ﺎـﻫ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺎـﻨﻓ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ
ﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺭ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﺷ
) 5 ﻭ 6 ( ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) 5
A (
( ) ( )
( )( )
* h - j + b s + l g = - y - j - bl
1
1 1
1 - ﻩﻮﺤﻧ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﻱ
ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻪ
ﻱ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻲـﻣ ،ﺎـﻫ
ﻪـﺳ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ
. ﺭﺩ ـﻳ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﻚ ﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ،ﺎـﻫ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻢـﻫ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻢـﻫ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺬﮔ
) ﻮﺑ ،ﻼﻴﻟﻮﺑ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ،ﻲﺴﻠﺑﺍﺮﺗ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺭ
2008 .(
ﻪﺘـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮـﮕﻳﺩ
ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﺎﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺮـﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻥﺩﺍﺩﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﻂﻘﻓ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺬﮔ
) ﻝﺪﻣ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻳ ﻮﭼ ﻲﻛ ﻥﺍﻮ ( ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺎﻫ
ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ـﻳ ﻚ
ﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺍ
) ،ﺰﭘﻮـﻟ ﻭ ﺍﺮﻳﻮﻜـﺳ ﻝﺎـﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ 2009
.(
ﻑﺎﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻥﺩﻮـﻤﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﮕﻧﻮـﮕﭼ ﺹﻮﺼﺧ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺖﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻳﺎﻤﻧ . ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ
ﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﺮـﺑ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺎﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻌﺳ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻭ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ .
-2 ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻋ ﺎـﺑ
ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻞـﻣﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨ ﻱﺭﻭ
ـﻳ ﺮـﻴﺒﻌﺗ ﻮﻟﻮـﺳ ﺪﻧﺎﻤـﺴﭘ ﺎ
ﻲﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺍﺬﻟ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻳ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻦﻴـﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻚ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
ﺩﻮﻤﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ .
) 6
A (
S
( )n *
* s + l + lg g = 1- j
ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ )
5 ﻭ 6 ( ﻲـﻣ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ )
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ،b
،l
،s
ﻭ y
( j
ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻢﻫ
ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ
*A
ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻢﻫ ﻭ g ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
S*
ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ g .
ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻞﺣ ﺎﺑ
ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ـﻨﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺎ
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ :
) 7
S (
u ( )
* =
+ + G F 1 1 1
) 8
A (
u ( )
* F
=1+ + G F1
) 9
Y (
u ( )
* FG
=1+ + G F1
ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ :
A
A S
( ) S ( )n ( )
( )n ,
( S)
*
* *
é ù
h r + - j d + s + l - + q + l - g
r + h - + b ë û
G º F º
hg sb g + d
1 1 1
1
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ
ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺱ ﻻﺎﺑ
ﺶـﺸﻛ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎـﭘ ،ﻥﺯﺍﻮـﺘﻣ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ
ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ( )b
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ
ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ (u )Y
ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ
، ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺖـﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺎﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ (u )S
ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖــﺒﺜﻣ .
ﻥﺍﺰــﻴﻣ ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺮـﻫ ﺮــﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﺖﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎـﻫ ﺵﻼـﺗ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺖﻬﺟ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺮـﻛ
ﺩ . ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ( )j
ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ .
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
، ﻲﻣ ﺐـﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺮـﺗ
ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﻱﺍ
ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ
ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ
ﺎﻫ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻱ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ،ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﻣ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﻢﺘـﺴﻴﺳ ﻚﻳ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻢـﻫ
ﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻲﻳﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻞﻤﺘـﺸﻣ ﻲ
ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﭼ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻱ
ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ،ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺎـﻨﻓ ،ﺭﺎـﻛ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ .
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺎــﻫ ﻲــﻃ ﻮــﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎــﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺍﺮــﺑ ﺯﺎــﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮــﻣ ﻱ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺯ ) 1385 - 1345 (
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﺮﮔ .
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ 1386
ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ
ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ )
ﺵﺯﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ
ﺮﺗ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ( ـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺪﻣ ﻪ
ﺍ ﺪـﻧ . ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺎـﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻳﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ،ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .
ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺎﻫ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎـﺷ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻱ
ﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺖـﻧﻭﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﺗﺎـﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪـﻣ
ﺰـﻳﺭ ﻱﺭﻮـﻬﻤﺟ ﺖـﺳﺎﻳﺭ ﻱﺩﺮـﺒﻫﺍﺭ ﺕﺭﺎـﻈﻧ ﻭ ﻱ
) ﺖﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯﺎﺳ ﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ
ﻪﻣ ﺰﻳﺭ ﻖﺑﺎﺳ ﻱ ( ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .
ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻱ
ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻱ
ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ ﺏﺎﻛ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ .
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ﺕﺩﺎﻌﺳ )1
1386 ( ﻪﺑ ـﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪ
. ﺩ ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭ )
1 ( ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱ ﻲﻳﺎـﻧﺎﻣ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ .
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 1 - ﻭ ﻲﺗﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
ﻱ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻧﺎﻣ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ- ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﺢﻄﺳ
ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
0,72 - 2,39 - 0,06 - 0,71 - 1,79 -
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ 2,73
- 2,51 - 1,24 - 2,34 - 2,31 -
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
* 4,84 -
* 3,65 -
* 3,34 -
* 6,06 -
* 6,00 -
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ
* 4,77 -
* 3,72 -
* 3,30 -
* 5,95 -
* 5,93 -
ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻓ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ- ﻥﻭﺮﭘ
ﺢﻄﺳ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
0,94 - 2,03 - 0,13 0,89
- 2,04 -
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ 2,38
- 1,89 - 1,49 - 3,00 - 2,88 -
ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
* 4,44 -
* 4,91 -
* 4,03 -
* 5,52 -
* 6,34 -
ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ
* 4,36 -
* 4,99 -
* 4,00 -
* 5,41 -
* 6,26 -
* ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﺭﺍﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ 1
%
ﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻊﺒﻨ
1 - ﻖﻴﻔﻠﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﻓ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺩﺎﻌﺳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﺖﻛﺭﺎﺸﻣ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱ )
ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻀﻋﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺎـﻫ
ﻱ
ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻨﻫ ،ﻲﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ (
ﺮﺟ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻭ ﻡ ) ﺪﻧﻭﺮﭘ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩ
ﻱﺍ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻀﻗ (،
ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
. ﺏ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻱﻭ ﻱ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﻢـﻛ ﻡﺮﺟ ﺏﺎﻜﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ
، ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ .
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻲﮕﻨﻫﺮﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ
ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﺜﻨﺧ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺮﺟ ﻲﺸﻫﺎﻛ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺭ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ
. ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ
ﻪـﻛ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ
ﻱ ﺕﺩﺎﻌﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺍﺮﻣ ﻥﻼﻛ ﻱ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ
ﺪـﻤﻋ ﻩ
ﺲﻜﻌﻨﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻱ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ .
ﻢـﻫ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ـﺑ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﻱﺍﺮ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻲﻋﺎـﻤﺘﺟﺍ
ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻱ .
ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ
ﻱ ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﻪـﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻦﺘﻓﺮـﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻫ ﻭ ﻲـﺸﻳﺎﻤﻴﭘ ﺕﺎـﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻦﻤﻀﺘﻣ ﻢﻫ ﻲﻫﻭﺮﮔ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ
ﺎـﻫ ﻱ
ﮔ ﻮ ﻥﻮﮔﺎﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ، ﻁﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳ
ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﻤﻋ ﻱ .
ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻱ
ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻩ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻜﻳﺩ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱ -
ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺮﻟﻮﻓ ﻭ1
ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻩ ﺎﻫ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﻱ
ﺲﭙﻴﻠﻓ -
2ﻥﻭﺮﭘ ﻲﻧﺍﺮﺤﺑ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﺁ
ﺎـﻫ ﻝﻭﺪـﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ )
1 ( ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺲﻜﻌﻨـﻣ
ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺸﻳﺭ
ﻱ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ
ﻪﺘﻓﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﻮﺷ
، ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﻣ ﻞﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺒﺗﺮ
ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎـﻫ ﺩﺭ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﺍﺬـﻟ
ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ ﺎـﻧﺎﻣﺎﻧ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪـﺒﺗﺮ
ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ I(1) ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ
، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
ﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺠﻨﺳ ﻱﺩﺎ
ﻥﻮﻴﺳﺮﮔﺭ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺏﺫﺎﻛ ﻱ ﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ ،ﺪﻴ
ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﻢﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﺣ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ3
ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﻡﺎﮔ ﻦﻴﺘﺴﺨﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،
ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ
ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﺗ )
(VECM ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ4
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻒـﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ :
) 10
t t t t t p t (
X X- X- ... r- X-r- X- U
D =b D1 1+b D2 2+ +b 1D 1+p +
ﻥﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ X
ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ﺮـﺑ ﻞﻤﺘـﺸﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ )
(Y ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ، )
(K ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ، )
(L ﻱﺭﻭﺎـﻨﻓ ، )
(A ﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ) (،SC ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤـﺼﺗ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ
،ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺵﻼﺗ
ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻂـﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ﻱ
ﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻩ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱ 1385
- 1345 ،
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .
ﻩﻮﻴـﺷ ﻱ ﻥﻮـﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﺟ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﻮـﺑ5
ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ Microfit
ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﻩ
ﺎـﻫ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮـﺳ ﻱ
ﻲﻣ ﺷ ﻮ ﺩ .
4 - ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻪ
ﺎﻫ
ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ،ﻥﻮﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﺟ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ
ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ
ﻞﺒﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ
ﺪﺷ ﻩ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻞﺋﺎﺴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ، ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﻱ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ﺢﻴﺤـﺼﺗ
ﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻮﻃ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺮﺑ ﻪ
ﺎﻫ ﻱ DX ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻦﻴﻤﻀﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺎﻄﺧ ﺕﻼﻤﺟ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ،
ﻓﻮﻧ ﻪ ﻱ ﺪﻴﻔـﺳ ﺎـﻳﺎﭘ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ6
) 0 ( ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫI . ﺭﺩ
1-Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test.
2-Phillips-Perron Test . 3-Co-integration.
4-Vector Error Correction Model.
5-Johnson . 6-White Noise.
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻦﻴﻋ ـﻛﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻡﻭﺰـﻟ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ،ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻥﺩﺮ
ﻲﻌﻄﻗ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻢﻫ
ﻥﻮﭼ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ،ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ،ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋ ﻥﻭﺮـﺑ
ﺍﺯ ﻲـﻳ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻧﺎﻜﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺍﺭ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻮﺗ
ﻢﻴﻤـﺼﺗ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻪـﻴﺟ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ
. ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ،ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ،VAR
ﻣ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻪﺒﺗﺮ ﻱ
، VAR ﻳ ﻚـﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻲـﻨﻌ (AIC)1
ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻨﺘـﺳﺭﺩ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ، (LL)2
ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮـﺷ ﻭ -
ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ (SBC)3
ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻬﺟ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﺕﻻﺩﺎـﻌﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ،
ﻚﻳ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻩﺭﺎـﻣﺁ
ﻱ
» ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ،«
ﻲـﻨﻌﻣ ﻥﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ
ﻱ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ
. ﺭﺩ
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ) 2 ( ﻝﻮﻃ ﻢﻤﻳﺰﻛﺎﻣ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ
ﻱ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ،ﺭﺎـﻬﭼ
ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ (AIC)
، ﻭ(LL) (SBC) ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺋﺍﺭﺍVAR
.
ﻝﻭﺪﺟ 2 - ﻝﻮﻃ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ
ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻱ ﻱ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﻭ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺎﺑVAR
ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻮﻃ
ﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ
SBC AIC
LL
4 3 2 1 0 485,7231
495,2416 502,3582
528,8964
525,0745 548,8579
541,5824
545,9050
552,6491 529,0333 673,8579
638,5824
600,9050 582,6491
534,0333
ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺕﺎﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ
ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣ
ﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻮﻃ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺩ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪ
ﺎـﻫ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱ ﺶﻴـﺑ
ﺮـﺗ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘﻣ ﻦﻳ
ﺰﺗﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ -
ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻚﻴﺋﺎﻛﺁ ﻭ ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ ﻱ
1 ﺖـﺳﺍ
ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ
ﻱ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﻨﻛ
، ﻲﻳﺎﻤﻨﺘـﺳﺭﺩ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﻔﻗﻭ ﻝﻮﻃ ﻪ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺍﺭ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻱ ﻲﻣ
ﻛ ﺪﻨ . ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﻣﺁ
ﻱ
» ﻥﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ
ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ « ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ )
3 ( ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ
ﻱ ﭻﻴـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ
ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ
ﺪﻨﻛ
، ﺩﻭﺭﻭ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ
ﻲﻤﻧ ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
1-Akaike Information Criterion.
2-Log- Likelihood.
3-Schwarz Bayesian Criterion.
