NGHIEN cdu - IHAO LUAN
Can bang nirofc cua he thong
vung kinh te trong fliem phia Nam
O LE TH! TUYET ANH,
N G U Y I NXUAN TRUNG, TRAN THj THANH HAI, PHAM VAN HAI,
N G U Y I NTHANH TUNG, DO DINH CHIEN. TRAN HONG THAI
Vien Khoa tioc Khi b/ang Thuy van va Mdi tn/dng
V
ung kinh te trpng diem phia Nam (KTTDPN) nam trong linj virc sdng Odng Nai, la luu vuc Idn thd 3 d Viet Nam. Oay la khu vuc tap trung nhieu khu cdng nghiep va khu dd thj Idn, tai day cac hoat dpng phat trien kinh te xa hpi didn ra rat manh me. Do dd, yeu cau ve nude cho cac nganh dung nude trong khu vuc la rat Idn. NhOng nam gan day, do nhu cau dung nude ngay cang gia tang, din den nhffng mau thuin giOfa cac nganh sir dung nude, dac biet la giua nude dung cho tudi va phat dien... da va dang xay ra. Trong tuong lai, vdi tdc dp phat trien KTXH nhu hien nay neu khdng cd mpt giai phap sir dung va bao ve tai nguyen nude (TNN) hieu qua thi nhffng mau thuin nay se ngay cang trd nen gay gat hon va din den nguy co suy thoai va can kiet ngudn nude. Tmdc yeu cau thuc tien tren, can thiet phai cd nhffng nghien cdu cu the nham dua ra nhffng giai phap hieu qua trong quan ly tdng hpp TNN.Trong nghien effu nay, chung tdi da lua chpn va sff dung phuong phap md hinh loan cu the la md hinh MIKE BASIN de tfnh can bang nude he thdng cho khu virc nghien effu.
Ap dung md hinh MIKE-BASIN tinh toin ean bing nUdc eho vung KTTDPN
S<f do tinh toan
So dd tfnh toan can bang nude (CBN) he thdng cho vung KTTEPN gdm toan bd he thdng sdng Vam Cd, sdng sal Gdn, sdng Be, sdng Xoai, Ray va sdng Ddng Nai (tff Tri /\n trd xuong) vdi 8 vCing CBN, ti/ong urng vdi 19 khu (bang 1, hinh 1).
SoBeuc^uvao
Tinh toan luang nude den Lupng nude den vung KTTDPN bao gdm lupng nude tir sdng Ddng Nai, sdng La Nga, sdng Be, sdng Sii Gdn, he thdng sdng Vam Cd va eic sdng ven bien. Do sd lieu quan trie Bang 1: Phan Miu can bang nude vung KTTBPN
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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588 911 2.589 2.116 1.643 2.100 847 849
TT 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
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Tai nguyen v a Moi fruong | Kf 2 - Tttiais 1/2018khi tupng thuy van tren luu vue khdng day du, nghien edu da sit dung md hinh MIKE-NAM de md phdng qua trinh hinh thanh ddng chay tu mua eua luu vuc ed sd lieu quan trie. Qua viee hieu ehinh va kiem djnh se tim ra bd thdng so phu hpp eua luu vue ed sd lieu. Sir dung bd thdng sd nay de khdi phue lai so lieu ddng ehay nhffng nam thieu sd lieu. Ddi vdi nhung luu vue khdng cd tram thuy van, cd the sur dung phuang phap tuong tu thuy van de sur dung bd thdng sd eua luu vue lan can ed ehung nguyen nhan hinh thanh ddng ehay
Ket qua hieu ehlnh va kiem djnh md hinh MIKE-NAM dupe trinh bay trong bang 2.
TU bang 2, ed t h i thay dupe giOa sd lieu thue do va tfnh toan ed dp phij hpp kha eao. Chi sd Nash eao nhat dat 88,5%. Nhu vay, ed ttie ket luan: bd
thdng sd cua md hinh ed the sir dung de khdi phue lai sd lieu tai ctJra ra eua luu vuc can nghien effu.
Xay dUhg cac phiMig an nUdc den
Vdi mue dk:h xem xet dupe toan dien nhat ve can bang nude bong tuong lai bao eao da nghien effu xay dung cae phuang an tfnh toan can bang nude trong dieu kien ddng ehay den khac nhau (nam nhieu nude, nude tfung binh va nam it nude).
Trong thue le, dff lieu ve mua va ddng ehay eua vung KTTDPN kha han eh€. Sau khi ttiu thap tai lieu mua tren toan bd khu vuc tU nhieu ngudn khae nhau, nhdm nghien effu nhan ttiay bd sd lieu trong khoang ttidi gian
1981-2007 dam bao dap ffng dupe yeu eau eho tfnh toan. Tren co sd gia ttiiet tan suat mua tmng vdi tan suat ddng ehay nghien effu tien hanh phan tfeh va chpn ra dupe nam tinh Sang 2: Ket qua hieu chinh va Idem dinh mo hinh MIKE-NAM TT
1 2 3
Tram PhudcLong
Talai TdPao
Higu chinh Th^doan 1987-1989 1989-1991 1981-1984
Nash(%) 82,7 88,5 82,5
KiMndinh Thdi doan 19K-1991 1992-1994 1985-1987
Nash(%) 81,5 79.3 77.3
toan ffng vdi cae tnidng hpp dai bieu:
nam nude nhieu, nam nude trung binh va nam nude it lan lupt la: 2000, 1997 va 1995.
Tinh toan nhu cau sCr dung nude • Dua vao cac sd lieu nien giam thdng ke cac ta'nh va eac chi tieu cap nude cho tffng nganh nghien effu da tfnh toan nhu cau nude cua vung KTTDPN cho 6 ddi tupng dung nude chinh, bao gdm: sinh hoat, ndng nghiep (tfdng trot, ehan nudi), ttiuy san, cdng nghiep va eac nhu cau khae (du Ijeh va djch vu, giao ttidng ttiQy va mdi tiiJdng).
Theo ket qua tinh toan tdng nhu cau khai ttiac, sur dung nude cua vung KTTDPN nam 2005 la 4.912 t^ m^.
Trong dd, nhu cau nude cho eay trong chiem t/ trpng nhieu nhat (51,37%), sau dd den nganh edng nghiep (16,43%), ttiuy san (13,10%), sinh hoat (10%), cac nhu cau khac (8,52%) va nhu cau nude cho nganh chan nudi ehiem tf trpng it nhat (0,56%). Ben canh dd, nhu cau nude dung cd su phan bd ro rpt giua eac khu dung nude vdi nhau, didn hinh la khu Sai Gdn chiem b'le Idn nhat (14,03%), tiqp ttieo la khu Ddng Thap Mudi chiem Bang 3: Nhu cau nude theo khu can bang nude - vung KTTDPN
STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Phinkhu C^nOon Thac Mo SrokPhuKfieng PhudcHda S6ngB6
TtvJdng D ^ Ti^tg H? Diu Tjgng Tay hinh GoDauHa BmLAc
xos
Itfm?
23.7 29.3 22.6 39,2 106,6 103.7 176,1 279.4 243.8 564,3
2015 lifnf
33,5 40,5 31.4 64.5 200,6 140,2 323,6 287,3 309.2 758.1
20W iffai'
39,5 46.2 36,6 TI.9 289.5 183.5 520.7 348,4 338.5 910.2
STT 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Phan khu S^G6n Thupng Trj ^ TnAn
edr^Nai hti^Bd
OdngThSpMuen V ^ Co Tay Xoai
Ray Tong
2005 1(fm' 689.1 133.4 290,1 531.5 451.2 663,8 207,9 169.8 186.7 4.912
2015 Iffnf 1078.5
155.7 334.6 685.0 625.4 716.5 248.3 198.2 199.7 6.430
2020 '\
Iffne 1424,6 \
1 7 4 j | 376,0 1 796.1 \ 742,0 j 716.9 j 26^6 212.9 207.4 7.704.
13,51%, Ben Lffe 11,49%, Odng Nai 10,82%.... Cac khu Can Oon, Srok Phu Mieng, Thic Mo v i Phude Hda cd tdng nhu cau it nhat (nhd hdn 1%).
Tren cd sd cic chi tjeu va djnh hudng phat trien kinh te eija vung KTTOPN ndi chung; quy hoach, djnh hudng phit trien kinh te eiJa tffng tinh trong vung ndi rieng va qua phan tich nhan djnh xu thg cua viec khai thac, sff dung tai nguyen nude eua tffng nganh kinh te qude dan, nhdm nghien effu da tien hanh tinh toan du bao nhu cau dung nude cija vung den nam 2015 va 2020 eho cic nginh dung nude ehinh.
Oen nam 2015, tdng nhu cau dung nude cua vung KTTOPN la 6,430 ty m^ (tang 30,92% so vdi nam 2005). Oen nam 2020, con sd nay
dupe du kien dat 7,704 t^ m^ (tang 19,80% so vdi nam 2015 va tang gan 56,82% so vdi nam 2005). Oi6u nay da tao ra mpt ap luc rat Idn tdi tai nguyen nude eua vung trong dieu kipn ngay cang suy giam ve chat va lupng ddi hdi phai cd cic phuong an phat trien ngudn nude phu hpp de tranh tinh trang khung hoang thieu nude trong mua khd.
So lieu cac cdng trinh thuy lai Cdng trinh thuy Ipi dua vao trong md hinh MIKE-BASIN chu yeu la cac ho chffa va nha may thiiy dien. Cic edng trinh nay dffpc md phdng vdi cic thdng sd ky thuat gdm: Sd lieu dac trung hd chffa (Z~V~F); cic muc nude hd (MNC, MNDBT...); cdng suat cua nha miy thuy dipn; diin bien muc
nude d ha luu nha may thuy dien.w.
Nam 2005: Cd 4 hd chffa dupe md phdng trong md hinh l i : Hd Trj An, Dau Tidng, Thic Mo, Can Oon.
Nam 2015 va 2020: Theo quy hoach phit tridn kinh td xa hpi ddn nam 2020, mdt sd hd da dupe hoan thanh va di vao sff dung: hd Phudc Hda, hd Odng Nai 8, hd thac mo md rpng them cdng suat lap miy la 75MW. Bdn canh dd cdn cd du an ehuyen nude tff hd phudc hda sang hd Dau Tieng (ehuyen 50m^/s) dl tham gia cap nude tudi eho mpt sd khu vuc thupc Tay Ninh, Binh Duong va TP.Hd Chi Minh.
Xay dUhg phwcmg an tfnh toan can bang nifdc
Oe dua ra cic giai phip quan ly
Bl^u d& nhu c^u niro>c ndm 2005
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Bi^^5 NBhttP
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Hinh 3: Nhu cau nude nSm 2005 .
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Hinh 4: Nhu cau nude nSm 2015
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Hinh 5: Nhu cau nude nam 2020
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4 0 Tai nguyen va Moi traong | Ky 2 - Thing 1/2010
bao ve va phat trien hpp ly TNN, nghien effu da xay dung mpt sd cic phuong an tinh toan CBN he thdng eho vung tren co sd: cic quy hoach, chien lupc phat trien KTXH eua vung, luu vue, cua tUng dja phuong va tffng nganh; eac van ban, nghi quyet cija Nha nude; xu the phat trien cua cac nganh ed lien quan trong thdi gian gan dSy Cac tieu ehi ehinh dupe xem
xet trong viec xay dung phuong an bao gdm: Ddng chay den; Nhu cau sff dung nude; He thdng edng trinh cap nude. Cae phuong an tinh toan CBN eho vung KTTOPN dupe trinh bay d Bang 4.
Ket qua tinh toin
Ket qua md phdng tuong ffng vdi eac phuong an dupe md ta tff hinh 7 den hinh 13 va bang 5.
Theo ket qua tinh toan, nam 2005 tinh trang thieu nude thudng xuyen xay ra d vung ven bien. Oay la khu vuc cd nhieu sdng sudi nhd vdi lupng mua trong mua kiet nhd. Tdng lupng nude thieu trong mua khd khoang 188 trieu m^ dac biet khi cay trdng vu ddng xuan bude vao giai doan sinh trudng eao nhat va ddi hdi lupng nude tudi Idn trong khi lupng
Bang 4: Cac phuang an tinh toan can bang nude
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Phupng i n Phuong an hien trang
(nam 2005)
Phuong an nam 2015
Phuong an n§m 2020
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H& thdng cdng trinh thuy Ipi
2005
Hp ttidng thuy Ipi Phudc Hda di vao hoat dpng
Hp thdng ttiuy Ipi Phudc Hda va Nh^ m^y thuy dipn OPng Nai 8 di v^o hoat dpng; Nh^
may thOy dipn Thac Mo nang cap cdng suit phat dipn I6n 75 MW.
Nhu cau nUdc 2005
2015
2020
Odng chay den .
2005 Thap Trung binh Cao Thap Trung binh Cao
Bang 5: Bang ket qua thieu nude tai cac khu can bSng nude
Phuong an Phuong an nam hien
trang
Phuang an ngni2015
C^c trudng hdp
2005
T H I : nam it nude
TH 2 : nam nude trung binh TH 3: nam nhieu
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Khu thieu nUdc Ray Xoai Thac Mo Xo^i Th^e Md Ray Bdn Lffc Ddng Nai Sdng Bd Xodi Ray Xoai Ray
• > » ? : • : • : « « • ; • : • ; • . • ; ' - - • • . • > • • • • • • • - • - • • • • • • - • - • •
LUdng nffdc thieu
(trieu vni) 105
71 11 69 62 46 26 4 3 63 39 32 8
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Phuang an nam 2020
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TH 1: n§m it nude
TH 2: nam nude trung
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TH 3: nam nhiPu nude
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Hinh 9: Ban do thieu nirdc viing KTTDPN phi/ang an nam 2015 - tnrdng hap 2
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5 0 Tai nguyen va Moi traong | Ky 2 - Thing 1/2010
mua vao mua khd eua toan vung thap.
Nam 2015, lupng nude thieu eua toan vung KTTOPN la 210 trieu m^
va xay ra d nhieu khu CBN hon so vdi nam 2005. Trong phuong an 2015 - TH 2 va 3, do lupng nude den trong mua kiet tang nen mffe dp thieu nude da giam han. Lupng nude thieu trong mua kiet ehi cdn 102 trieu m^ (2015 - TH 2) va 40 trieu m^ (2015 - TH 3).
Cac khu thieu nude la Ben Lffc, sdng Be, Ray va Xoai. Thdi gian thieu nude nhat tap trung vao eac thang I, II va III.
Ket qua md phdng tff phuong an 2015 eho thay kha nang d i p ffng eija ngudn nude tren luu vue cd giam sut trong cae thang mua khd nguyen nhan la do lupng nude sff dung cho cac ddi tupng diing nude tang manh so vdi nam 2005 nhung lai chua ed quy trinh dieu tiet he thdng hd chffa cap nude trong mua kiet.
Den nam 2020, du kien se xay dung them cac hd chffa va nha may thuy dien Odng Nai 8, nang cap Thuy dien Thac Mo them 75MW. Tuy nhien, do nhu cau nude tang len kha nhieu (tdng nhu cau hon 9 ty m^) nen lupng nude thieu trong mua kiet Idn hon eac phuong an giai doan 2015.
L/dc tinh lupng nude thieu tang tff 47- 167 va 361 trieu rri^ tudng ffng vdi eac trudng hpp lupng nude den cao, trung binh va thap.
De xuat giai p h i p
TU cic ket qua tinh toan CBN he thdng vung KTTOPN, nghien effu da nhan dang mpt sd khu vue ed nguy cd thieu nude eao trong vung va de xuat mpt sd eac giai phap dam bao nhu eau su dung nude eho cac nganh trong tuong lai sau:
Giai phap phi cdng trinh: Quan
ly nhu eau; Lap ke hoach va quy hoach khai thac va sff dung hop ly ngudn nude ngam ddi dao trong vung; Dieu ehinh quy hoach sff dung dat va CO eau eay trdng phu hpp de sff dung nude hieu qua va kinh te; Ra soat va dieu ehinh he thdng td ehffe quan ly luu vue sdng.
Giai phap cdng trinh: Xay dung quy trinh van hanh lien ho chffa tren he thdng sdng Sai Gdn - Ddng Nai;
Tang nang lue trO va tao nguon nude;
Xay dung edng ngan man Vam Cd de cung cap nude tudi va nude cho cae khu edng nghiep thupc hai tinh Long An va Tien Giang; Tang kha nang tieu thoat nude mua, nude thai bang each cai tao kenh rach, cai thien thoat nude bang bdm, xay dung muong va edng thoat nude. Odng thdi, xay dung cae ao, muong tham Ipc thuc vat, hd dieu hda...
Ket luan
Nghien effu da thanh edng trong viec ffng dung md hinh MIKE-BASIN tinh toan md phdng can bang nude he thdng eho vung KTTOPN nam hien trang va trong cac ky quy hoach tuong ffng vdi cic phudng an nude den va nhu eau sff dung nude khac nhau. Cae ket qua tinh toan da dua ra dupe bffe tranh tdng quan ve tinh hinh khai thic sff dung nude va nhan dang dupe cac vung ed nguy ed thieu nude trong tuong lai dua tren co sd cac quy hoach phat trien kinh te xa hpi eua vung. Qua eac ket qua tinh toin nghien effu cung de xua't mpt sd giai phip de giam thieu tdi da nhffng thiet hai ed the cd do thieu nude. Ket qua eija nghien effu se giup eho nha quan ly dua ra nhffng quyet djnh, chinh sach hieu qua nham hudng tdi phat trien ben vffng TNN vung KTTDPN.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [I] Vien quy hoach thijy lai mien Nam 2008 - quy hoach tai nguyen nude luu vuc sdng Dong Nai.
[2] Dao Xuan Hoc: Water resources and sustainable use of water resources in Dong Nai river basin.
[3] Vien khoa hoc khi tuang thuy van va mdi trudng, Ha Noi, 2008 - Du an quy hoach tai nguyen nude vung kinh te trpng diem phia Nam.
[4] Vien quy hoach thijy loi mien Nam - Ra soat quy hoach thuy Ipi phue vu phat then kinh te xa hpi va dam bao qude phdng an ninh vung Kinh te trong diem phia Nam.
[5] Bo xay dting. 1998. Dinh hudng phat trien cap nude dd thi den nam 2020. Nha xuat ban xSy dung.
[6] Quoc hdi nude Cong hda Xa hdi chtj nghla Viet Nam. 1998. Luat Tai nguyen nude dupe Quoc hpi nude Cpng hda xa hdi chu nghla Viet Nam khoa X, ky hpp thff 3 thong qua ngay 20 thang 5 nam 1998 va cd hipu lucid tff ngay 01 thang 01 nam 1999.
[7] Thu tudng Chinh phu. 2006.
Quyet dinh so 81/2006/QO-TTg ngay 14 thang 4 nam 2006 ve ph6 duypt.
"Chidn lupc qude gia ve tai nguy6n nude den nam 2020".
[8] Vien Khi tuang Thuy van.
1985. Dac trung hinh thai luu vuc sdng Vipt Nam,
[9] 0/ ban nhan dan tinh/tp Ho Chi Minh, Ba Ria Vung Tau, Ddng Nai, Binh Phude Binh Duang, Tay Ninh, Long An, Tien Giang. 2006 Bao cao tdng hop Quy hoach tdng thd phat thdn kinh te xa hpi thdi ky 2006 - 2015 vdi tam nhin den nam 2020.
[10] DH/,/nc-MIKE BASIN User's Guide.
[II] DHL DHI software 2007.
MIKE BASIN Reference Manual."
