NGHIEN CLTU - TRAO DOI
Moi quan he giua tang tmong kinh te voi lam phat trong nen kinh te Viet Nam
Hau nhu tat ca cac quoc gia tren the gioii deu theo duoi nhiifng muc tieu Chung, do la: tang trUofng cao, lam phat thap, that nghiep it, can can thanh toan CO so dU, phan phoi thu nhap cong bang. Tuy nhien, khong phai luc nao cac muc tieu nay deu cb the thuc hien va dat duoc ket qua mgt each dong thai. Trong timg boi canh cu the, cac muc tieu nay cd the thdng nhat, bo sung cho nhau hoac ngugc lai cb the m^u thuin, loai trir nhau. Tang trubng va lam phat, hai muc tieu dirge xem la quan troni liang dau trong kinh te VI mb cung vay, vi the viec Uu tieii hay lua chgn muc tieu nao de thuc hien trong ngan han va dai han la dieu quan trgng hang dau doi voi cong tac quan ly nha nudc ve kinh te.
Ly thuyet ve moi quan he giQa tang truTcfng kinh te'vdi Iqm phdt
Theo kinh td hpc vi md, mdi quan he giua tang tru'dng kinh te vdi lam phat la mdi quan he dpng phire tap nhdt trong cac mdi quan he kinh te vi md. Hoat dpng thuc tidn eho thdy, thPng thudng khi cd tang trudng kinh te se ddn tdi lam phat, song lam phdt qud cao se ban che tang trudng, vd kbi lam phdt qua thap Cling khdng kfch thfch su tang trirdng kinh te. Nhu vay, xet cd ve mat ly thuydi va thyc tidn, lam phdt cd thd tac dpng tidu cyc ldn tich eye ldn tang trudng kinh td.
Cd thd gidi thfeh mdi quan he phiic tap nay nhu sau: Trong ngan ban, mudn tang trudng cao hon thi phdi tang ddu tu, tang chi ngan sdch, ha lai suai cho vay, kfch cdu tidu diing, ddy manh xudt klidu, giam nhdp sieu... nhung nd'u lam nhu vdy thi lam phat se tang. Mud'n lam phat tha'p, till phdi thdt chat chi ngdn saeh, that chat ddu tu, tidu dimg, tang lai sudt cho vay, tang dy trif bdt bupe, giam thue sudi thud nhdp
khau... nhung nhu the' thi tang trudng kinh td cung se bi kim ham.
Kinh nghidm ciia eae nudc trdn the gidi cho thdy, cd the danh ddi lam phdt de cd dupc miic tang trudng eao. Vi du nhu My, cd nhung giai doan sir dyng ty Id lam phat cao hon ca mifc tdng trudng GDP de tang cudng ngudn vd'n cho phat trien kinh te (nam 1973, td'c dd tdng CPI la 11,0% vdi td'c dd
ThS. BUI THI THUY NHI Hgc vien Hdnh chinh tang GDP la 5,77%; ndm 1979 CPI tang manh la 13,7% va tang trudng GDP la 3,18%; nam 1981 CPI la 4,4% vdi GDP la 2,45%).
Mac dil cd cac cupc tranh luan sdi ndi vd mdi quan he giifa 2 bieii so nay, tuy nhidn da sd eae nha khoa hpc ddu cho rang mpt mirc lam phdt vira phai se la cai ngudng phdn dinh mdi quan he cimg chidu hoac ngupc chidu giifa 2 bid'n so nay. Ngudng vira phai duoc xdc dinh tuy thupe vao didu kidn cu thd d mdi qud'c gia, va trdn co sd dd; Khi lam phat thyc td = lam phat vita phai thi cd tac dpng tfch cyc ddi vdi tang trucmg kinh td; Khi lam phdt thyc td > lam phdt vira phai thf lam phat se ed tac dpng tidu cyc bode xa'u dd'n tang trudng kinh te. Md'i quan he giua tang trudng kinh te va lam phat dupc bidu didn trdn md hfnh chu U Ipn nguoc nhu trong hfnh 1.
Hinh 1: MO HINH BIEU DIEN MOI QUAN HE GIUA TANG TRUONG KINH TE VA LAM PHAT
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NGHIEN CQu - TRAO DOI
Tdm lai, mdi quan he giifa lam phat va tang trudng la phi tuyd'n tinh. Lam phat chi tac dpng tidu eye ldn tdng trudng khi dat nguang nhdt dinh nao dd. O miic dudi ngudng, lam phat khdng nhat thidt tac ddng tidu cyc len tang trudng, tham chi ed thd tdc dpng duang nhu ly thuyet Keynes dd cap. Dieu dd cung ham y rdng, d mdi nude deu tdn tai mpt pham vi lam phat
"an toan", khi ma lam phat va tang trudng ed mdi quan he ciing chidu.
Trong trudng hop nay, lam phat dupe coi la cai gia tdt yd'u phai tra cho tang trudng kinh te. Tuy nhidn, khi lam phat qua cao, vupt nguang an toan chdc chdn se anh hudng xdu dd'n tdng trudng kinh te.
ThiTc trqng it Viet Nam
Sd lieu thd'ng kd trong gdn 25 nam qua (1986-2010) cho tha'y, mdi quan he giQa lam phat va tang trudng ciia ndn kinh te Viet Nam tuong ddi phifc tap, song dudng nhu cung tudn theo quy luat chung nhu ly thuyet. Xet vd mat xu hudng chung, ed mpt sd nam khi lam phat thdp thi tang trudng kinh td' cung d miic thap, ngupc lai nd'u lam phat d mifc cao thi tang trudng kinh te cung dat miic tuang dd'i. Cu the nhdi la nam 2010 cd 2 bid'n so kinh te vi md da vupt ke' hoach ma Chinh phu va Qudc hpi ddt ra, dd la tdc dp tang trudng kinh te dat 6,78% (so vdi ke hoach 6,5%) va ty Id lam phat la
11,75% (so vdi myc tidu la 7%).
Hoac nam 2009, td'c dp tang trudng tha'p nhdt trong vdng mpt thap ky la 5,23%, ddng thdi ty Id lam phat cung d miic thap 6,88% (thap han con sd du kid'n la 7%)...
Ngodi ra, nhu ly thuyet, khi lam phat dat de'n mdt ngudng cao nhdi dinh, thf lam phat bat dau tac ddng tidu cyc ldn tang trudng kinh te. Trong sudt giai doan 1986 -
1988, lam phat d nudc ta ldn mifc 3 con sd (774,5% nam 1986;
360,4% nam 1987 va 374,4% nam
Hinfi 2: .\l6l QUAN Hli TUONG QU.\N GIUA TOC DO T.4NG TRUONG KINH TE VOl TINH HINH LAM PH.4T 6 VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1999-2010
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
• • i % C P I - • - % G D P 1988) trong khi dd tdng trudng
kinh te rd't tha'p 3,4% nam 1986 hay 2,5% ndm 1987.
Dae biet, cd mpt sd nam ma mdi quan he giiia tang trudng vdi lam phat d nude ta khdng rd net nhu ly thuydt ndu ra. Chdng han trong giai doan tir 2000-2003, lam phat d mirc rat tha'p, tham chf ed nam cdn roi vao tfnh trang giam phat, song tdc dp tang trudng kinh te vdn dupc duy tri d miic cao. Nhirng ndm 1996-1997 cifng urong ty nhu vdy, lam phat ddu d miic dudi 5% vd nen kinh te trai qua tdc dp tdng trudng kinh te ldn nhat tir trude dd'n nay. Ly do ehu ye'u cd thd giai thfch cho vide khdng tudn theo quy luat chung ciia mdi quan he giifa tang trudng vdi lam phat la do tinh trang lam phat va tang trudng kinh te d nudc ta giai doan dd chiu su tac dpng rat ldn bdi nhiing nhan td khach quan tir bdn ngodi (ching han, qua tiinh hpi nhdp kinh td' qud'c te hay lan sdng tang gia trdn thd'gidi...), chif khdng phai do cbfnh sdch tai khda va tidn td md rdng ciia Chfnh phii de thiic ddy tang trudng kinh td'.
Cd le chi'nh \i chi danh gia mdi quan he giira lam phat vdi tdng trudng kinh te theo mdt chieu, do dd thdi gian qua, quan diem xuydn sud't trong dieu hanh kinh td' vi md d Viet Nam la ddy lam phat ldn cao hon de thiic ddy tang trudng. Thdm chf mpt
so nha kinh te cdn cho rdng, nd'u Viet Nam mud'n tang trudng cao thi lam phat hai chif sd Id binh thudng. Tuy vay, dudng nhu cac nha hoach dinh chinh sdch da tam thdi bd qua khfa canh ngupc lai ciia mdi quan he nay, tlie la khi lam phdt ldn qud cao vupt ngudng chudn, se tdc dpng tidu cyc dd'n san lupng san xuat ciia nen kinh te thdng qua eac kdnh nhu ddu tu, tin dyng, tieu dimg. Vide sir dung lam phdt cao de thiie ddy tang trudng kinh te thyc chat la lieu phap "sdc"
vdi mong mud'n tang trudng nhanh de dat dupc thdnh tfch mong mudn, nhung hdu qua tieu cyc gdy ra cho nen kinh td' va anh hudng dd'n ddi sdng eiia dan cu, nhat la tdng Idp ngheo, thu nhdp thd'p bi tae dpng nhieu nhat. Cdc nha kinh te cho rdng, ddy la giai phdp tbiic day tang trudng kinh te nhanh, nhung kem ben vung hay cdn .gpi dd la giai phdp tang trudng "bong bdng".
Vay eau hdi eung can dat ra la d Viet Nam ngudng lam phat vira phai la bao nhidu, ma \'Upt qua ngudng dd thi lam phat cd tac ddng tieu cyc ldn tang trudng kinh te. Van dd nay cd rdt nhidu quan diem dua ra, chdng ban miic lam phdt 1 con sd (tire la dudi 10%/ndm) hay miic lam phat thap ban tang trudng kinh te (theo quan diem ciia dng Ld Diie Thiiy - nguydn Thd'ng ddc NHNN Vidt
Kinh t s v a Dlt bao So 5/2011
i NGHIEN CL/U - TRAO DOI
Moi quan he giua tang truong kinh te voi lam phat trong nen kinh te Viet Nam
Hau nhu tat ca cac quoc gia tren the giai deu theo duoi nhiing muc tieu Chung, dd la: tang trudng cao, lam phat thap, that nghiep it, can can thanh toan CO so du, phan phoi thu nhap cong bang. Tuy nhien, khong phai liic nao cac muc tieu nay deu co the thuc hien va dat duoc l(et qua mot each dong Ihoi. Trong tiing boi canh cu the, cac muc tieu nay co the thdng nhat, bd
sung cho nhau hoac nguoc lai cd the mdu thudn, ioai trii nhau. Tang trudng va lam phat, hai muc tieu dUdc xem la quan trgng hang ddu trong kinh te vi md cung vdy, vi the viec uu tien hay lua chgn muc tieu nao de thUc hien trong ngan ban va dai ban la dieu quan trgng hang ddu ddi vdi cdng tac quan ly nha nudc ve hinh te.
Ly thuyet ve moi quan he giuTa tang tracing Icinh te'vdi iam phdt
Theo kinh td hpc vi mP, mdi quan he giifa tang tru'dng kinh te vdi lam phat la mdi quan he ddng phifc tap nhat trong cae mdi quan he kinh te vi md. Hoat dpng thyc tidn eho thd'y, thPng thudng khi ed tang trudng kinb te se ddn tdi lam phdt, song lam phat qua cao se ban chd tang trirdng, va khi lam phdt qua thd'p ciing khdng kich thich sy tang trudng kinh te. Nhu vay, xet cd vd mat ly thuydi vd thyc tidn. lam phat cd thd tac dpng tidu cyc ldn tfch cyc ldn tang trudng kinh te.
Cd thd gidi thfch mdi quan he phii'c tap nay nhu sau: Trong ngan ban, mud'n tdng trudng eao hon thi phai tang ddu tu, tdng chi ngan sach, ha lai suat cho vay, kich cdu tidu diing, ddy manh xudi khdu, giam nhdp sieu... nhimg ndu ldm nhu vay thi lam phat se tang. Mud'n lam phat thd'p, thi phai thdt chat chi ngan sdch, that chat ddu tu, tidu diing, tdng lai sudt cho vay, tdng dy trti bdt bupe, gidm thud suat thue nhap
khau... nhitng nhu the thi tdng trudng kinh td eung se bi kim ham.
Kinh nghiem ciia cac nude trdn the gidi eho thdy, ed thd ddnh ddi lam phdt de cd dupc miic tang trudng eao. Vi dy nhu My, cd nhung giai doan sir dung ty Id lam phat eao han ca mtic tang trudng GDP dd' tang cudng ngudn vd'n cho phdt trid'n kinh te (nam 1973, td'c dp tdng CPI la 11,0% vdi tdc dp
ThS. BUI THI THUY NHI Hoc vien Hdnh chinh tang GDP la 5,77%; nam 1979 CPI tang manh la 13,7% vd tdng trudng GDP la 3,18%; nam 1981 CPI la 4,4% vdi GDP la 2,45%).
Mac dil cd cdc cupc tranh ludn sdi ndi ve mdi quan he giifa 2 bidn so ndy, tuy nhidn da sdcac nhd khoa hpc deu cho rang mpt mifc lam phat vira phdi se la cai ngudng phan dinh mdi quan he ciing chidu hoac ngupc chieu giiia 2 bid'n sd nay. Ngudng vira phdi dupc xdc dinh tuy thupe vao dieu kidn cy thd d mdi qud'c gia, va trdn co sd dd: Khi lam phat thyc td = lam phat vira phai thf ed tae dpng tfch eye ddi vdi tdng trudng kinh td; Khi lam phat thue te > lam phat vira phai thf lam phat se co tac dpng tidu eye hoac xau ddn tang trudng kinh te. Md'i quan he giua tang trudng kinh td vd lam phat dupe bidu didn trdn md hfnh chu U Ipn nguoc nhu trong hfnh 1.
Hinh 1: MO HINH BIEU DIEN MOI QUAN HE GIUA TANG TRUONG KINH TE VA LAM PHAT
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NGHIEN c a u - TRAO DOI
Tdm lai, mdi quan he giiia lam phat va tang trudng la phi tuyd'n tinh. Lam phdt chi tac dpng tidu cue ldn tang trudng khi dat ngudng nhai dinh nao dd. 0 mtic dudi ngudng, lam phdt khdng nhd't thidi tac dpng tidu eye ldn tang trudng, tham chf cd the tac dpng duong nhu ly thuyet Keynes dd cdp. Dieu dd eiing ham y rdng, d mdi nudc ddu tdn tai mpt pham vi lam phat
"an toan", khi ma lam phat va tang trudng ed md'i quan he ciing chidu.
Trong trudng hpp nay, lam phat dupc coi la cai gia ta't ye'u phai tra cho tang trudng kinh te. Tuy nhidn, khi lam phdt qua cao, vupt nguong an toan chdc chdn se anh hudng xd'u dd'n tang trudng kinh te.
Thifc trgng d V i e t N a m So lieu thdng kd trong gan 25 nam qua (1986-2010) cho tha'y, mdi quan he giiia lam phat va tang trudng eua nen kinh te Vidt Nam tuang ddi phiic tap, song dudng nhu cung tudn theo quy ludt chung nhu ly thuyet. Xet ve mat xu hudng ehung, ed mpt so nam khi lam phdt thdp thi tang trudng kinh te' ciing d mifc thap, nguoc lai nd'u lam phat d mifc eao thi tang trudng kinh td' ciing dat miic tuang ddi. Cu the nhdt la nam 2010 cd 2 bid'n sd kinh te' vT md da vupt ke hoach ma Chfnh phu va Qudc hdi dat ra, dd la tdc dp tang trudng kinh te dat 6,78% (so vdi ke hoach 6,5%) va ty le lam phat la
11,75% (so vdi muc tidu la 7%).
Hoac nam 2009, td'c dp tang trudng thd'p nhat trong vdng mpt thdp ky la 5,23%, ddng thdi ty Id lam phat ciing d mtic thap 6,88% (thd'p ban con sd dy kid'n la 7%)...
Ngoai ra, nhu ly thuydi, khi lam phat dat dd'n mdt ngudng cao nhdi dinh, thi lam phat bdt ddu tac ddng tieu eye ldn tang trudng kinh te. Trong sudt giai doan 1986 - 1988, lam phat d nudc ta ldn mifc 3 con sd (774,5% nam 1986;
360,4% nam 1987 va 374,4% nam
Hinh 2: .M61 QUAN Hii TUONG QUAN GILA IOC DO T.4NG TRUONG KINH TE VOI TINH HINH LAM PH.AT Cf VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1999-2010
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
|;::::::::::::::::::| Q / /"^ r ^ 1
' %GDP 1988) trong khi dd tang trudng
kinh te rdt thd'p 3,4% ndm 1986 hay 2,5% nam 1987.
Dac biet, cd mpt sd nam ma mdi quan he giifa tang trudng vdi lam phat d nudc ta khdng rd net nhu ly thuyet ndu ra. Chdng ban trong giai doan tir 2000-2003, lam phdt d miic rai thd'p, thdm chf cd ndm cdn roi vao tfnh trang giam phdt, song td'c dp tang trudng kinh te vdn dupe duy tri d miie eao. Nhifng ndm 1996-1997 cQng tuang tu nhu vay, lam phat dfo d miic dudi 5% va ndn kinh te trai qua tdc dp tdng trudng kinh te' ldn nhat tir trude dd'n nay. Ly do chu ye'u cd the giai thfch eho vide khdng tudn theo quy ludt chung ciia mdi quan he giifa tang trudng vdi lam phat la do tinh trang lam phat va tang trudng kinh te d nudc ta giai doan dd chiu sy tac dpng rat ldn bdi nhiing nhan to khaeh quan tit ben ngoai (chang ban, qua trfnh hpi nhdp kinh td' qud'c te hay lan sdng tang gia trdn the gidi...), chif khdng phai do chfnh sach tai khda va tien td md rpng cua Chfnh phii dd' thiic day tdng trudng kinh te.
Cd le chfnh vi chi danh gia mdi quan he giiia lam phat vdi tdng trudng kinh te' theo mpt chieu, do dd thdi gian qua, quan diem xuydn sud't trong didu hanh kinh td' vl md d Viet Nam la ddy lam phat len eao ban de thiic d£y tang trudng. Thdm chf mpt
sd nha kinh te edn cho rdng, nd'u Viet Nam mud'n tang trudng cao thf lam phat hai ehii so la binh thudng. Tuy vdy, dudng nhu cae nha hoach dinh chfnh sach da tam thdi bd qua khfa eanh ngupc lai ciia mdi quan he nay, uic la khi lam phat ldn qua cao vupt ngudng chudn, se tae dpng tidu cyc dd'n san lupng san xuat ciia nen kinh te thdng qua cac kdnh nhu ddu tu, tin dyng, tidu diing. Vide sir dyng lam phat cao dd thiic day tang trudng kinh td' thyc chdi la lieu phap "sdc"
vdi mong mud'n tang trudng nhanh de dat dupe thanh tfch mong mudn, nhung hau qua tieu eye gay ra cho nen kinh td' va anh hudng dd'n ddi sd'ng ciia dan cu, nhat la tang ldp ngheo, thu nhap thdp bi tdc dpng nhieu nhat. Cac nha kinh te cho rdng, day la giai phdp thiic day tang trudng kinh te nhanh, nhung kem ben vung hay cdn .gpi dd la giai phap tang trudng "bong bdng".
Vay eau hdi cung can dat ra la d Viet Nam ngudng lam phdt vira phai la bao nhidu, ma vupt qua ngudng dd thi lam phat cd tac ddng tidu cyc len tdng trudng kinh te'. Vdn dd nay cd rat nhidu quan diem dua ra, chang ban miic lam phat 1 con sd (tire la dudi 10%/nam) hay miic lam phat thdp ban tang trudng kinh te (theo quan did'm ciia dng Ld Diic Thiiy - nguydn Thd'ng ddc NHNN Viet
Kinh t^'va Dlt bao So 5/2011
NGHIEN CLfu - TRAO DOI
Nam). Tuy nhidn, ngudng lam phat vira phai la bao nhidu edn phai cdn eif vao mdi quan tdm eiia eac doanh nghidp va ngudi tidu diing Viet Nam.
Trong vai ndm qua, thyc tidn trong san xudt vd tidu diing d Viet Nam da eho thdy rang ne'u lam phat d muc trdn 5% da tao mpt gdnh nang rdt ldn ddi vdi da so tdng ldp ngudi lao ddng ke cd khu vyc tu vd khu vyc cdng.
M o t vdi h d m y c h m h sdch cho V i e t N a m
Trong nhidu ndm qua, Viet Nam dupc ca the gidi biei de'n vdi cdu chuydn tbanh cdng vd tdng trudng kinb te. Cd the dd la ly do vf sao ma tir trudc dd'n nay, dudng nhu Chfnh phii ludn uu tidn cho myc tidu tang trudng ban la myc tidu kidm che lam pbat. Nhitng dpng thai cbfnh sach eiia Qifnh pbii tbirdng xuydn gay a'n tupng rang Cbfnh pbii eoi trpng tang trirdng ngan han hon la sy on dinb cdn thidi de duy trf tang trudng trong dai ban.
Ket qua nhu chiing ta thdy, trong nam 2010 mac dii ed the' dat dupe muc tidu tang trudng GDP song lam phdt da vupt myc tidu gdn bdn didm phdn tram. Day la chua kd dd'n nhirng cdi gia phai tra dd' dat dupc muc tieu tang trudng, cy thd' la thdm but kep (ngdn sach vd thuong mai), lai sudi tang vpt, ty gia cang thdng, lam phat tang eao, mPi trudng kinh doanh bap hdnh... Nhu vay trong nhii'ng nam tdi, da dd'n liic Chfnh pbii phdi cdn ddi lai giua hai myc tidu trai ngupc nhau, tdng trudng GDP bay kiem cbe lam phat dd cd mpt diem dung boa tdi uu.
Hidn tai, lam phat d nudc ta da d mite dang bao dpng. Tir gdc dp lich sir, Viet Nam luPn cd ty Id lam pbat cao hon cac nude ldng gieng trong gdn thdp ky qua la khoang 8,8%, so vdi 2,7% ciia Thai Lan va 5,1% ciia Philippines. Chfnh vi vay, trong didu hanh vi md nhiing nam tdi, Chinb phu cdn phai uu tidn hang ddu cho kiem che lam phat, ddng thdi ciing
phai chap nhan mdt mifc tang trudng kinh te thap ban. Day cung la hudng di hodn toan phu hop vdi quan diem chung ciia cde nha tai trp cho Viet Nam khi hp ydu cdu Chfnh phii Viet Nam phai xem on dinh kinh td' vl md la didu kidn tidn quydi.
Chinh phii ciing cdn tir bd quan diem tdng trudng kinh te theo kieu
"bong bdng" tir nhieu nam qua, vi tang tru'dng kidu nay chi la chay theo thdnh tfch ma khdng quan tdm dd'n nhiing he lyy ciia lam phdt, gay hdu qua ldu dai dd'n pbdt tridn kinh td' ben viing, ddi sdng ciia ngudi ddn va hidu qua sdn xudt, kinh doanh ciia doanh nghidp. Xu hudng cdc nudc phat tridn chpn gidi phap tdng trudng kinh te thuc chdi, dd la dya trdn CO sd gid cd dn dinh d mirc thd'p. Sd di nhu vay la vi: trong nen kinh te thi trudng, nd'u lam phat on dinh tbl ti'nh dy bao dupe nang cao.
Dieu dd giiip cdc nha ddu tu cd the xdy dimg dupe cac phuong an ddu tu hidu qua. Ddi vdi ngudi tidu diing tbl chi tidu ydn tdm, hp khong phai lo cdn nhdc cac mat hang khde dd' thay the do gia tang. Tat ca didu dd da gdp phdn thiic ddy tang trudng kinh td thyc chdt. Tuy vdy, ciing phai hieu rdng, lam phat on dinh chi la didu kien dii cho tdng trudng kinh td, cdn didu kidn edn cho tang trudng phai la vdn dd ciia phat tridn ngudn lye, vd'n va edng nghd ky thuat...
Trong tuydn bd ciia Chfnh pbii dau nam 2011, Thu tudng da khdng dinh quan didm didu hanh chung cho nam nay la dam bao on dinh kinh te vi md va kiem sodt lam phat.
Theo dd, myc tidu Qud'c hpi dd ra cho nam 2011 la tang trudng GDP 7-7,5%, dau tu xa bpi 40% GDP va CPI dudi 7%; tdng phuong tidn thanh toan va tfn dyng tang khoang 25-27%. Tuy vay, lieu ke hoach 7- 7,5% trong tdng trudng ed phai la qua cao, vd nhu vay dd hodn thanh dupc ehi tidu nay, cd thd' mot ldn
niia chiing ta phai trd gia cho miie lam phat tang cao, khien cho ngudi dan vd doanh nghiep them mot lan niia phai lao dao, khdn khd.
Ngay 20/1/2011 vita qua, Tdng cyc Thd'ng ke Trung Qudc da cdng bd GDP ca nam 2010 ciia nudc nay tang 10,3%, manh nhdt trong vdng 3 ndm qua, ddng thdi lam phat d miie 3,3% vupt muc tidu 3% ma Bdc Kinh dat ra. Mac dii mifc lam phat thdp ban rdt nhieu so vdi Viet Nam, nhung Trung Qud'c da cam kdt rdng trong ndm nay se cd nhifng dpng thai thdt chat hon ehinh sach tien td de chd'ng lam phdt thdng qua vide tdng ty Id dy trir bat bupe, tang lai sudi vd cho phep ddng Nhdn ddn td tid'p tuc tang gid. Vdy, lieu day cd phai la mpt kinb nghidm tdt eho Chinh phii Viet Nam hay khdng, khi Trung Qud'c mac dii ehua rai vao tfnh trang lam phdt cao ma chi la nguy ca, bp da cd quan diem phii hpp ve uu tien kiem ehe lam pbdt, ddng thdi cd nhung giai phap kip thdi, trdnh nhifng do vd va xao trdn trong ddi sd'ng kinh te. •
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Le Hong Giang - CEPR Dui hgc Kinh te, Dai hgc Qudc gia Hd Ngi:
Tdng quan kinh te the gidi 2009: Qua ddy vd phuc hoi (412009).
2. Nguyen Vdn Nam (2006) - Dgi hgc Kinh te qudc ddn; Tdc do vd chdt lugng tdng trudng kinh ledViet Nam;
Nhd .xud't bdn DH Kinh ti'qudc ddn.
3. Ngdn hdng the gidi (WB); Diem lgi Bdo cdo cap nhdt dnh hinh phdi trie'n kinh le'Viel Nam 2010: Tdi lien plnic VII Hgi nghi cdc nhd tdi trg cho Viet Nam CG 12/2010.
4. Trung tdm nghien cUii kinli leva chinh sdch CEPR - Dgi hgc Kinh le.
Dai hgc Qud'c gia Hd Ngi. Lua chgn chinh sdch ty gid trong bdi cdnh phuc hoi kinh le(2010).
5. Nguyen Due Thdnh - CEPR Dgi hgc Kinh ti'. Dgi hgc Qudc gia Hd Ngi: Vien cdnh kinh te ndm 2010 vd hdm y chinh sdch (2010).
So 5/2011
22 Kinh t e v a Dit bao
