V A N DE L A M P H A T V A T A N G TRITONG, TY GIA V A D I N H H U A N G X U A T K H A U : K I N H N G H I E M C U A H A N QUOC V A L I E N HE VGTl VIET N A M
VO HAI THANH*
I. Van de lam phat vd tang trudng Trong giai doan 1962-1980, chinh sach kinh te cua Chinh phu Han Qudc uu tien cho tang trudng cao va xuat khau vdi nguon vdn vay tu nude ngoai la chinh : Lam phat d Han Quoc thdi ky nay kha cao luon d muc 2 con so, co nam da len tdi 30%, chi co mot nam dat mire lam phat thap 6,2% va luon cao han mire tang trudng. Lam phat cao hon tang truang d Han Qudc tren thuc te da keo dai tdi mai nam 1992. Chi tit sau cuoc khirng hoang
1997 chinh phii Han Qudc mdi thuc su xcm trong vice kiem soat lam phat va on dinh kinh te vT mo, dam bao tang trudng ben vung.
Lam phat cao trong thdi ky 1962-1980 tren thuc te da la mot cong cu h6 tro cho tang trudng cao cua Him Qudc, vi chinh lam phat da kich ciiu manh me, dong thai chinh phu co dieu kien ho tra titi chinh cho cac doanh nghiep.
Tuy nhi£n, lam phat cao trong thdi ky tang trudng cua Han Qudc da de lai mot so he qua bat lgi:
- Khuyen khich vice sir dung vdn kem hieu qua; hinh thanh cac kenh tin dung phi chinh tlnic gay thiet hai cho ngudi giri tien.
- Vdi lai suat am, ty le tiet kiem cua Han Qudc luon luon thap trong suot giai doan
1962-1982, muc tiet kiem trong thdi ky nay da 6 mire dudi 10% keo dai trong khoang 15 nam va tinh trong giai doan 1960-1974 thi ty l ien si. Pho giam doc Trung tarn Nghien cuu Han Qu6c, Vien Nghien cuu Dong B3c A
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le tiet kiem tu nhan chi dat 13.8%, dieu nay da co anh hudng khong tot tdi nguon vdn tich luy ciia nen kinh te.
Chi tii' nhung nam 1990. dac biet la tir sau cuoc khiing hoang kinh te 1997. Chinh phii Han Qudc mdi thuc su thuc hien chinh sach lai suat duang cao trong khu vuc ngan hang chinh thong va da thanh cong trong viec kiem soat lam phat, gia tang dang ke muc tiet kiem qudc gia. nhung nam 1990 muc tiet kiem qudc gia da dat khoang 35% GDP.
Thuc te ciia Han Qudc co nhung diem tuong dong vdi Viet Nam:
- T u nam 1999, kinh te Viet Nam da chiu anh hudng ciia cuoc khiing hoang kinh te Chau A , nen tdc do tang trudng da cham lai va rai v;io tinh trang thieu phat (1999-2000).
Chinh phii da ap dung chinh sach kich ciiu, gia tang dau tu cong, co phan ndi long chinh sach tien te de thiic day tang trudng, vao thdi ky dau nhung nam 2000, dau tu nha nude cac loai da chiem khoang 50%-56% tong dau tu xa hoi. Nam 2004, mire tang chi so gia ca tieu diing (CPI) da len tdi 9,5%, nam 2005, 2006 chi so nay co giam thap han muc tang trudng nhung tu nam 2007 chi so nay tang vot len tdi tren 12%. cao han muc tang trudng.
Tir thuc te ciia Han Qudc va Viet Nam nay ra mot van de co the can ly giai, do la lieu tang trudng cao co luon gan lieSn vdi lam phat cao, va mire lam phat nao co the dam bao tang trudng ben vung.
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- Truac het phai xem xet m o i quan he giua lam phat va tang trudng trong bdi canh kinh te v i mo. Neu muc do lam phat va tang trudng van trong khuon kho kinh te vT mo on dinh, nghTa la muc lam phat khong qua cao.
cac can ddi thuong mai. thanh toan, ngan sach, ... ve co ban van duoc bao dam, ty le that nghiep khong ldn. vv... thi muc lam phat va tang trudng cao do co the chap nhan duoc.
Muc lam phat cua Han Qudc trong nhung nam 1970 tuy kha cao nhung da khong gay ra nhung bat oil gi dang ke chinh la vi nhung chi so can ddi v i mo khac ciia nen kinh te hie do ve ca ban van dugc dam bao. O Viet Nam tir nam 2004, ty le tang trudng kinh te kha cao khoang 8-9%/nam va lam phat cung cao.
Nam 2004, lam phat len tdi 9,5%, cac nam sau do da giam nhung den nam 2007 lai tang manh trd lai dan tdi tinh trang lai suat ngan hang da bi am. Tuy nhien, muc lam phat ciia Vict Nam la kha cao nhung nhung can ddi v i mo khac noi chung da tiep can gidi han khong an toan nhu tham hut thuong mai ldn, tham hut ngan sach cao, ... do vay, nen kinh le Viet Nam da d vao tinh the phai duang dau vdi nhieu thach thuc va nhung tac dong xaii tu ben ngoai.
- Trong thai ky tang trudng cao ciia Han Qudc thi lai suat tieu giii ngan hang luon am.
Nhung tir nam 1985 den nay, dac biet tir sau nam 1997, lai suat ngan hang ciia Han Qudc da luon cao hon lam phat. do vay lam phat da thuc sir duoc kiem soat giam tir 25,6%
nam 1980 xuong chi con 5-6% tir 1985 den nay. Cuoc cai each kinh te ciia Han Qudc tir sau nam 1997 da dat uu tien cao cho viec on dinh kinh te vT mo, trudc het la kiem soat lam phat. Day la mot bai hoc pho bien hau nhu cho moi nen kinh te muon phat trien b6n vung. Kinh te Viet Nam tir sau 2004, dac biet
la thdi gian gan day da rcri vao thdi ky lam phat cao, lai suat am. va tir kinh nghiem ciia Han Qudc thi giai phap chii yen cho van de nay la thuc thi chinh sach lai suat duang (lai suat ngan hang phai cao hon mire lam phat).
nhung van phai dam bao cac boat dong tin dung ngan hang diem ra binh thuong. an toan va hieu qua.
2. Van de ty gid va dinh hudng xuat khau
Mot nen kinh te co dinh hudng xuat khau thi xir ly van de ty gia la het sire quan trong.
Kinh te Han Qudc co dinh hudng xuat khaii ro ret va la mot dinh hudng song eon. vi Han Qudc hau nhu khong co tai nguyen gi dang ke. Chinh sach tien te ca ban ho trg cho dinh hudng xuti't khau ciia Han Qudc la giam gia dong won lien tuc, dac biet hi khi ty le lam phat d Han Qudc cao han nhieu so vdi cac nude doi tac mau dich chii yeu. Neu tinh ui 1960 den nay dong won da giam gia 16 kin so vdi do la. Trong thap ky 1960, dong won da dugc giam gia manh nhat tdi 4,8 lan. Sau khi che do ty gia hop nhat dugc ban hanh nam 1961, thi den thang 5/1964 dong won da bi giam gia tir 130won/lUSD xuong 255vvon/lUSD; Thap ky 1970 la 2,08 kin, thap ky 1980 la 1.08 lan. Nam 1974 ty gia dong won la 484vvon/l USD va duoc neo buoc cd dinh vdi dong USD cho den nam
1979. Va chinh sir neo huge cd dinh ly gia nay da k i m ham boat dong xuat khau ciia Han Qudc, lam cho nen kinh le Him Quoc phu thuoc nang ne vao vay no nude ngoai de bii dap cho sir thieu hut du tru qudc gia. Nam
1980 ty gia dong won da giam xuong 580won/lUSD. va giam gia elfin eho den cudi nam 1985 la 893won/lUSD; N h d d o , can can thuong mai ciia Han Qudc da chuyen sang thang du, dac biet la vdi M y . De giiun bat
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thang du thuong mai ciia Han Quoc vdi M y . cac nha cam quyen M y da yeu cau Han Qudc phai tuing gia dong won so vdi USD.
Do do. dong won Han Qudc da tang gia trd lai tii 881 won/1 USD nam 1986 len 671 won/1 USD nam 1989 (Chong-Hyun Nam). Thap ky 1990. dong won giam gia hon 1 lan; tir nam 2000 mire giam gia dong won da cham lai va dao dong tren dudi lOOOwon/lUSD. Thuc te Han Qudc da cho thay neu dong won len gia thi lap tuc anh hudng tieu cue ngay tdi xuat khau, do vay ( hinh phii Han Qudc da lucin thuc thi chinh sach ha gia dong won. va day la mot chinh sach nhat quan trong sudt giai doan tang trudng dinh hudng xuat khau tir thap nien
1960 den giiia thap nien 1970 va nua dau thap nien 1980.
Kinh te Vict Nam ciing dinh hudng xuat khau. tuy killing quyet Het nhu Han Qudc.
nhung chinh sach ty gia chua nhat quan theo hudng ha gia V N D . Thdi ky 1989-1992.
V N D hau nhu da tha ndi theo thi trudng.
V N D da mat gia vai lan nhung tir 1992 den 1997 thi ty gia V N D / U S D dudng nhu cd dinh trong khi USD len gia, do vay V N D ciing tang gia theo. Tir 1997. ty gia VND/USD da duoc dicu chinh theo hudng ha gia V N D vdi mot hien do hep 2-3% nam.
Nhieu thdi diein, de chdng lam phat. Chinh phii tham chi lai dieu chinh nang gia V N D . Thuc te Viet Nam eho thay. khi V N D tang gia thi tham hut thuong mai gia tang, khi V N D ha gia thi can can thuong mai da can bang hon. Thdi ky 1989-1992 V N D da ha gia vai lan nen can can thuong mai tir tham hut nang da tro ve trang thai tuong ddi can bang, nhap sieu giam ro ret. Nhung tir 1992-
1997 khi V N D bi tang gia thi muc nhap sieu ciing da tang tro' lai.
Van de dat ra la tai sao vice ha gia dong tien noi dia lai co y nghia het sue quan trong ddi vdi viec gia tang xuat khau. Trudc het. la mot hang hoa ciing chat luong. ciing kieu giang, mau ma. thi kha nang canh tranh ciia no se tuy thuoc vao gia ca, gia cang thap thi kha nang canh tranh cang cao. De co gia ca thap, ngudi san xuat phai tang nang suat lao ddng. nhung vice tang nang suat lao dong khong phai la mot vice de lam. va ciing khong the lam trong mot thdi gian ngan.
Nhung neu ha gia dong noi te, tang gia ddng do la len thi gia tinh bang do la ciia hang hoa do se giam ngay lap tire, nang lire canh tranh ciia hang hoa se tang len. Do vay. nam 1994 Trung Qudc da ha gia dong Nhan dan te khoang 40-50%, va ngay sau do gia hang xuat khau ciia Trung Qudc cung chat luong va mau ma nhu cu nhung gia tinh bang do la ciia no da ha tdi 40-50%, do vay siic canh tranh da tang len tdi 40-50% ma khong can tdi tang nang suat gi ca. Day iludng nhu la mot bi quyet de hang Trung Qudc tran ngap the gidi. K h i cac qudc gia nhan thay siic ep kin at ciia hang Trung Qudc. va sir xam kin vu bao ciia no tai cac thi trudng M y , Nhat, ho mdi nhan ra va yen ciiu quyet liet ddi Trung Qudc phai tang gia dong Nhan dan le.
Cudi ciing Trung Qudc phai chap nhan yen ciiu nay, va tir 2005 den nay dong Nhan dan te da tang gia khoang 20% so vdi do la, va cung tir do kha nang canh tranh ciia hang Trung Qudc cung da giam.
Thu hai, vice ha gia ddng tien noi dia se cd anh hudng true tiep tdi gia ca hang hoa nhap khau. Mot hang hoa cung chat luong, chung loai. man ma nhap khau se cd gia ca tinh bang noi te tang len khi gia dong noi le giam so vdi do la. Mire giam gia noi te so vdi do la cang cao thi gia hang hoa nhap khau
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noi chung cang tang cao. K h i gia hang nhap khau tang cao, thi nhu cau su dung no bi tiet giam neu la hang tieu dung, neu la hang hoa tu lieu san xuat thi ngudi su dung se t i m kiem nguon hang trong nude re hon thay the.
Do vay, gia cac hang hoa nhap khau duoc tang cao tai mot muc nao do se lam cho nhu cau nhap khau giam do cau giam (trir mot so mat hang trong nuoc khong san xuat duoc hoac doc quyen), va nhap sieu cung se giam di, san xuat trong nude duoc bao ve khong phai bdi mot hang rao thue quan ma bdi mot ty gia han che nhap khau, khuyen khich xuat khau. Co ngudi cho rang, gia noi te giam dan tdi gia hang nhap khau tang se khien gia tang lam phat. Day la mot each suy nghl theo logich hinh thuc va chi dung trong ngan han, xet v6 dai han theo qui luat cung cau thi gia tang se dan tdi cau giam, cau giam se dan tdi gia giam va cudi cung se lam cung giam. Do vay, thuc te d nhieu nUdc gia noi te giam rat manh nhung lam phat da khong tang cao luong ung. Ngay tai Han Qudc thap ky 1960, dong won da mat gia tdi 480% nhung lam phat binh quan hang nam cung chi vao khoang 15,6%. Thuc te da di6n ra tai Trung Qudc, Thai Lan. va nhieu nude khac cung vay. Ngay tai Viet Nam thdi ky 1989-1990 V N D da mat gia tdi gan 200%, nhung lam phat thdi ky nay da duoc giam xuong tir 3 chu so xuong 1 chu so.
Thii ba, viec ha gia dong noi to con gop phan dinh hudng lai dau tu, khuyen khich chuyen hudng dau tu vao san xuat hang xuat khau. Noi te cao gia se hudng dau tu vao thi trudng noi dia, tao sue hap dim cac dong tien nong, cac luong vdn dau tu gian tiep, v i khi noi te cao gia thi xuat khau khong co loi chi co nhap khau hudng noi la co loi, dau tu kinh doanh xuat khau vi vay cung suy giam, chi
co dau tu kinh doanh thay the nhap khau la co l o i . Dieu dang chii y la thi trudng noi dia cua nhung nude nhu Viet Nam con qua nho be, nen kha nang hap thu F D I hudng noi (san xuat hang tieu thu trong nude) khong ldn.
Nhung khi noi te ha gia tdi mot muc nao do, thi cac khoan dau tu kinh doanh hudng ngoai, xuat k h i u se co loi ldn hon, va nguoc lai dau tu kinh doanh hudng noi khong con lgi the, do vay, cac dong dau tu se doi hudng tir hudng noi sang hudng ngoai, khuyen khich ho t i m kiem loi nhuan tu ben ngoai./.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Bernd Hayo. 2005, Mass Altitudes Toward
Financial Crisis and Economic Reform in Korea, Marburg Papers on Economics, No. 04- 2005.
2. Cairo University, 2004, The Economic Crisis and Restructuring in Korea, Korea Development Institute (KDI), Korean International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), March.
3. Chwa, Sung-hui, 2001, A New Paradigm for Korea's Economic Development: From
Government Control to Market Economy, Studies in the Korean Economy. Houndmills, Basingstoke. Hampshire; New York: Palgrave.
4. ain Pirie. 2007, The Korean Developmental Stale: From Dirigisme to Neo- Liheralism, Routledge.
5. Min Sup Song, 2000, Korea's Fast Recovery: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies and Reform Programs, Social Science 410.
November.
6. New evidence on high interest rate policy during the Korean crisis, Chac-shick Chung and Se-jik Kim. 2002. IMF-KIEP.
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