HOI NHAP TAI C H I N H QUOC TE VA TANG TRlTdNG KEVH TE dCACNirdCDONGNAMA
Vo Xuan ^^^h
Bai hgc Kinh ti Thdnh phd Ho Chi Minh vd Tmng tam Phdp Viet Ddo tgo ve qudn ly (CFVG) Hd Chi Minh Email: [email protected]
Dirong Huynh Anh
Vien Nghien cuu Kinh doanh, Bqi hgc Kinh ti Thdnh phd H6 Chi Minh Email: [email protected]
Ngay nhan: 24/2/2017 Ngay nhan ban sija: 28/4/2017 Ngay duy?t dang: 25/5/2017
Tom tat:
Bdi bdo ndy xem xet tdc dgng cua hgi nhap tdi chinh quoc te len sifphdt trien kinh te su dung dUlieu tir ndm 2005 din ndm 2016 cho 11 quoc gia & Bong Nam A Bong thdi, bdi bdo nghien cuu danh gid lieu moi quan hi ndy co phu thugc vdo cdc dieu ki^n kinh te, tdi chinh, sifphdt triin cda hi thong phdp lugt, mice do tham nhiing ciia chinh phu vd nhirng chinh sdch vT mo cua cdc quoc gia. Thay vi diing cdc chi so dan le nhu cdc nghien cuu trudc, chung tdi dung ket hgp cdc chi so nhdm co goc nhin ve vdn de todn dien hon vd sdu sdc hon vi tdc dgng cua hoi nhap tdi chinh quoc ti den tdng trudng kinh ti. Kit qud nghiin cuu cho thdy rdng hgi nhap tdi chinh quoc ti khong giup thiic day tdng tru&ng kinh te. Kit qud ndy Id nhdt qudn khi kiim sodt cdc dgc diem kinh te, tdi chinh, the chi vd cdc chinh sdch vimo.
Til khoa: Cdc qudc gia Ddng Nam A; hdi nhap tai chinh qudc te; phat tnen kinh te.
International financial integration and economic growth in South East Asia Abstract'
This paper investigates economic growth effects of international financial integration using a data sample of 11 South East Asian countries for the period 2005-2016. The paper also analyses whether this relationship is influenced by economic condition, financial system, legal environment, level of government corruption, and macroeconomic strategy. Instead of using individual indicator as in previous studies, we use a combinaiton of indicators for a comprehensive study. The result indicates that international financial integration does not affect economic growth This result is consistent when controlling for economical, financial.
polical and institutional development.
Keywords: Economic growth.International financial integration. South-East Asian countries.
1. Gidi thieu bien gidi, kiem soat vdn, ndi long cac chinh sach Ciing vdi su phat triSn cua thi trudng tai chinh th''it chat vdn va tai thiet he thdng tdi chinh ngi dia.
vd sg tang cudng hgi nhap tai ehinli quoc te tren Bai bao nay giiip lam ro tac dgng cua hgi nhap tai the gidi, nhiau qudc gia, dac biet la cac nude dang chinh qudc te len sir phat tnan kinh te cac qudc gia d phat tnen, dang timg budc gd bd eac hang rao xuyen Ddng Nam A, ddng thai gdp phdn md rdng ca sd ly So 240 thdng 6/2017
thuydt d nhiing vdn de sau:
Ddu tien, nghien cuu vd tdc dgng cua hgi nh^p tdi chhih dan tang trudng kinh ta ddi hdi do md ve vdn phai dugc tinh trung binh trong sudt khoang thdi gian nghien eiiu. Vi le dd, bdi bdo sii dyng chi sd ddng vdn FDI di vao (theo ty 1? phdn tram GDP), chi sd ddng vdn FPI (ddu tu danh muc) di vao (bao gom vdn chii sd him va ng theo ty le % GDP), chi sd tdng ddng vdn gdp (bao gom ddng vdn FDI, FPI di vdo vd di ra, theo ty le phdn tram GDP) dd dgi dien eho do md ciia vdn, nhung phuang phap do ludng vdn nay se la chi sd hiiu ich cho viec tmh todn. Hon the niia, nhiing phuong phap nay thi it nh?y cam vdi dg bidn ddng uong ngdn han cua ddng von do cdc yeu td khdng lidn quan ddn hgi nhap tdi chmh qudc te.
Bdi bao by vgng se mang lai mdt cai nhin todn ednh va tac dgng hdi nhap tdi chinh quoc td ddn phat trien kinh ta d cdc qudc gia Dong Nam A.
Thic hai, dd kilm tra mgt sd ly thuyat va nhiing nghien cuu thgc nghiem trudc cho rang hgi nhap tdi chinh qudc ta se chi tdc dgng duong dan tang trudng trong mdt sd dieu kien thd che vd chinh sdch dac biet, bai bao ndy sii dung cac ydu td tac ddng Ian nhau.
Dac bi?t, chiing tdi cdn kiem tra lieu hdi nhap tai chinh quoc td cd tac ddng ciing chieu ddn tdc do tang trudng khi nhirng qudc gia nay cd he thdng ngan hang, thi trudng chimg khoan phat man vd thuc hien tdt chuc nang giiip duy tri lugt phap, miic do tham nhung chinh phii thap, tdng lugng GDP thyc tren ddu ngudi cao, nen giao due phat trien, quan ly tdt can bdng tai khoa vd ti le lam phat thap. Ndi each khac, bai bao nay nham muc dich xem xet hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te se thuc day tang trudng kinh te nhu the nao dudi eac dieu kien kinh te, tai chinh, the che vd chinh sach khac nhau.
Tom lai, bai bao nghien ciiu tac dgng cua hgi nhap tdi chinh quoc te den tang tmdng kinh te d eac qudc gia Ddng Nam A va cung cap mgt sd ham y chinh sach hudng den phat trien ban viing d cac qudc gia nay.
2. Co' sd 1\' thuyet va luge khao cdc cong trinh nghiin cuu thuc nghiem Hen quan
Nhieu nghien cuu da xem xet ve tac dgng cua hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te len tinh trang nen kinh td ca khia canh ly thuyet ciing nhu thue nghiem. Tuy nhien, cac ket qua nghien cuu trudc khdng thong nhat. Cu the, cd nhieu ly thuyat cho rang hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te tao dieu kien cho tang trudng kinh te, nhung mdt sd nghien cuu khac lai khdng ciing quan diem Iren. Mgt sd khac lai cho rang hdi nhap
tdi chinh qudc t§ chi th\rc*sv tdc ddng ducmg ddn nen kinh te khi dap ling dugc mdt sd di6u ki?n ve kmh ta, tai chinh, va thd ch8 nhdt dinh.
Lap ludn cho mdi quan h$ duong giua hgi nhap tai chmh qudc 16 vd tang trudng kinh t6, mgt so nghi6n cuu trudc chi ra rdng hOi nhdp tai chinh qudc te tgo didu kien chia se riii ro, cdi thien da dgng hoa qudc td va do dd nang cao chuyen mdn hda sdn xuat, phdn bd von, vd toe do phdt trien kinh te (Obstfeld, 1992;
Acemoglu & Zilibotti, 1997; Edison va cdc cgng sir, 2002). Ngoai ra, md hinh tang trudng cua trudng phai tan cd didn khdng dinh hgi nhap tdi chmh qudc td giiip ddng vdn hi nai thira vdn chay sang noi thidu vdn mdt each dd ddng va tac ddng duong ddn tang trudng. Them vao dd, hdi nhap tdi chinh qudc te se cdi thien hogt dgng cua hg thdng tdi chinh ngi dia thdng qua tang cudng canh tranh va phdt trien cac dich vu tai chmh. Hdi nhap ciing thiic ddy tang trudng kinh td thdng qua vi^c giiip cac doanh nghifp giam chi phi ddu vao, tang Igi nhuan vd khuyln khieh ddu tu ngi dia. (Markusen & Venables, 1999;
Levine, 2001; Edison vd cac cgng su, 2002; Agenor, 2003; Kiem & Olivei, 2008)
Tuy nhien, nhieu nghien ciiu khac phu nhgn su tdc dgng ciing chieu cua hgi nhap tdi chinh qudc te vdi tang ttudng kinh td. Vi du, Boyd & Smith (1992) phat bidu rdng hdi nhap tdi chinh qudc te d cdc nude cd thd chd vd chinh sdch ydu kem (vi du, he thdng tai chinh va luat phdp ydu kem) cd tha dan den mgt lugng von di ra ngodi tic nude thieu vdn sang nhiing nude thica vdn c6 thS chd tdt. Bhagwati (1998) lap luan rang hdi nhdp tai chinh qudc te cd thd lam cham lai tdc dd tang trudng. Rodrik (1998) va Edwards (2001) cung eho rdng miic dg hdi nhap tai chinh qudc te cao da ddy cac nude d ndn kinh td mdi noi roi vao tinh trang suy thoai trong giai dogn giiia the ky XIX. Theo trudng phai ndy, hdi nhap tai chinh gay ra nhieu ban che ton kem nhung Igi ich thi lai co han den nhirng qudc gia mdi ndi. Hon nira, cac thj trudng mdi ndi vdi the che tdi chinh lac hau rat de bi tac ddng bdi su bien ddng ciia thi trudng tai chinh toan cau, dac biet ddi vdi cac qudc gia cd tai khoan vdn md. Edison va cac cdng su (2002) ciing khdng iing hd vdi quan diem rang hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te se giiip tang cudng tdc do phat trien, tham chi khi su kiem soat cac yeu td ve kinh te, tai chinh, thd cha va chinh sach. Nhu vay, mot sd ly thuyet du doan rang hdi nhap tai chinh qudc td se thuc day tang trudng ehi d nhimg qudc gia cd the che va chinh sach tdt.
So 240 thdng 6/2017
ivinli{(\J'hi!l(riei]
Ngoai ra, mgt sd nghiSn cuu thuc nghiem ciing dua ra nhimg quan di6m khdng dong nhat vd vdn de ndy. Vi dg, Grilli & Milesi-Ferretti (1995), Kraay (1998) da tim ra mdi lien he giua tdc do tang trudng kinh ta vd han che vdn cua IMF, Edison va cdc cgng sv (2002) ket luan rdng hgi nhap tai chmh qudc td thuc chat khdng giup tang trudng kinh td du cd kidm sodt nhung dac diem ve kinh te, tdi chinh, thd chd vd rui ro. Trdi vdi ket ludn ndy, Edwards (2001) chiing minh ring cdc rao can ludn ehuyan vdn qudc te tdc dgng am tdi su phdt triSn d nhiing qudc gia gidu nhung lai tac ddng duong den su phdt trien d nhiing qudc gia ngheo. Nghian cihi nay ciing cho rang the che tdt Id can thiet de hdi nhdp tdi chinh quoc td tdc dgng duong den phdt trien kinh ta. Arteta vd cdc cgng su (2001) vd Edison vd cac cgng su (2002) lai tranh luan rdng kSt qud cua Edwards (2001) Id khdng viing vdi nhiing thay ddi nhd trong phuang phdp kinh td lugng. Dreher (2006) xay dimg mdt chi sd ve todn cdu hda bao gom hgi nhdp kinh te, hdi nhgp xa hdi va hgi nhdp chinh sdch, eho rang toan cau hda xiic tien phdt trien nhung khdng 1dm gidm ddi ngheo trong pham vi Idn. Trong mgt nghidn ciiu khac, Quiim (1997) cho rang hdi nhap tdi chmh qudc ta CO tdc ddng duong den tang trudng kinh te. Tuy nhien, Kraay (1998) vd Arteta vd cac cdng sir (2001) kbang dinh kdt qua nay khdng viing. Cudi ciing, nhieu nghien ciiu ket luan hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc td ed tac dgng duong den tang trudng kinh te d nhung qudc gia that su gidu cd (Blomstrom vd cac cdng su, 1992), cd nen giao dye tidn bg Borensztein vd cac cdng su (1998) hoac he thdng tdi chinh phat trien Alfaro vd cac cdng su (2004) trong khi Carkovic &
Levme (2002) phan bac vd tuyen bd nhiing ket qud ndy Id khdng viing.
Mac dii cd nhieu tranh cai ve su tac dgng ciia hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te den phat trien kinh te, nhung de giai quyet vdn de nay thi khdng dan gian, viec do ludng hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te la rat khd khan chua ke den nhieu qudc gia eon dp dung mdt day cac kiam sodt ve gia vd lugng phuc tap trong phan loai giao djeh qudc te. Do vay, cac nha nghien ciiu gap rat nhieu trd ngai trong viec do ludng vi su khdc biet trong ban chat, cudng do, va miic do hieu qua ciia cac rdo can ddi vdi ddng ehdy vdn qudc te giira cac qudc gia (Eichengreen, 2001).
3. Dir lieu vd phiro'ng phap nghien ciiu 3.1. Phuang phdp nghien cuu
Tuang tu nghien ciiu trudc ve hdi nhap tai chinh
qudc td vd tang trudng kinh td cua Edison va cac cgng su (2002), ch6ng tdi su d\mg md hinh sau:
GROWTH = a +p*IFI + y*X + e (I) trong dd bidn phg thugc GROWTH la tdc do tang trudng GDP thuc tren ddu ngudi, IFI la bien hgi nhap tai chmh qudc te vd X bidu dien mgt ma trdn cua bien kiim sodt. Do v^y, nhu thao lugn d phan tren, mgt vdi ly thuydt cho rdng hgi nhdp tai chinh qudc td se cd tdc ddng duong ddn tang trudng kinh td, nhiing ly thuydt ndy cho rdng p se Idn han 0.
Chiing tdi su dung phuong trinh (1') dd kiem tra xem lieu hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc td chi tdc ddng tang trudng khi ddp ling nhiing didu kien kinh te, tha che vd chinh sdch nhdt dinh hay khdng.
GROWTH = ct-I-pIFI + 6[/F/*r/ + }'X+e (1') vdi X Id mgt bien gdm ma tran cdc bien kiem sodt X.
Vi du, neu x Id bien Law, phuang trinh (1') cho phep phan tich lieu hdi nhap tai chinh qudc te cd mdt tdc ddng anh hudng khdc Idn tang trudng d cac qudc gia khdng vdi he thdng luat phdp mgnh khdng. Dac biet, lay vi phdn phuang trinh (1') theo bien hgi nhap tdi chinh qudc te ta dugc:
5GR0WTH / dIFl = p + d*x Neu 8 > 0, dieu nay cd nghTa Id neu tang cudng hgi nhap tdi chinh qudc te thi se ddy manh tang trudng kinh te ddi vdi eac qudc gia tai mire x cao.
Mdt nghian ciiu dugc phdt trien bdi Boyd & Smith (1992) du doan rang hdi nhap tai chinh qudc td se tac ddng duong den tinh trang kinh te chi d nhirng qudc gia cd he thdng tdi chinh phdt trien va he thong luat phap mgnh. Diau nay cd nghia Id nghien cim du bao rang khi x Id bien Law hoac la mdt bien do ludng cho su phat tnen tdi chinh thi 5 se Idn ban khdng.
3.2. Dieli^u nghien cuu
Bai bao sic dung dir lieu cua 11 qudc gia tgi khu vuc Ddng Nam A' trong giai doan tic nam 2005 den nam 2016 dc xem xet tdc dgng eiia hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te den tang trudng kinh td. Dii lieu bao gdm cac thdng tin sau:
3.2.1. Dir lieu vi hoi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te - Tdng ddng vdn: chi tieu nay dugc tinh bdng tdng ddng vdn (ddng vdn tir FDI va FPI di vdo vd di ra) chia cho GDP Kraay (1998) su dung chi sd nay dS do ludng do md cua tdi khoan von. Nhu da dd cdp d tren, viec do ludng tdng ddng vdn di vao vd di ra dd lam bien dai dien cho hgi nhdp tdi chinh quoc te la kha quan trgng.
- Tdng ddng vdn di vao: Tdng ddng vdn (FDI va
So 240 thdng 6/2017 klllllil'JIliltlrJI'
FPI) di vao chia cho GDP. Khdng gidng nhu tong ddng vdn, tdng ddng vdn di vao loai tru ddng vdn di ra. Mgt Ian niia, chiing tdi fliem bidn ndy de tinh todn vi mdt sd nghien ctm nhdn manh va tdc dgng cua ddng von di vdo ddn hdi nhdp tai chinh qudc te.
3.2.2. DU lieu vi cdc biin so khdc
Cdc bien kiam sodt khdc Id nhihig bien dai dien cho cdc yeu td cd tha tdc ddng den tang trudng.
Ngoai ra, bdi bdo cdn xem lieu hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te chi dnh hudng den tang trudng dudi nhiing dieu kien kinh td, tdi chinh vd chinh sdch dac bi$t.
- Bien Growth dugc tinh bdng tdc dd tang trudng GDP thuc binh qudn tren ddu nguai timg nam vd dugc thu thap trong sudt khoang thdi gian 2005-2016.
- Bien Income tinh bang logarit GDP thuc tren ddu ngudi lay theo ddu nam cho giai doan nghien ciiu.
- Bien Schooling bang logarit cua trung binh sd nam di hgc cap hai cua ddn sd do tudi tren 15, cimg tinh theo ddu ndm.
- Bidn Credit bdng logarit cua tin dung cho khu vuc tu nhan, la miic tin dung md ngan hdng vd cdc trung gian tdi chinh khdc cung ling cho cdc doanh nghiep Ui nhdn ddng gdp vdo GDP trong nam.
- Bien Stock bdng logarit tdng gia tri giao dich ciia cdc chiing khoan ndi dia tai sdn giao dich trong nude cho timg nam ehia cho tdng GDP trong nam dd. Bai bdo sir dung logarit dd giam su anh hudng cua nhirng gia tri ngoai lai cho nhung bidn tai chinh.
- Bidn Inflation bdng toe do tang trudng eiia chi sd gid CPI eho timg nam.
- Bidn Government dai dien cho thang du can can tdi khoa bdng (tdng doanh thu -tdng chi tiau) chia
cho tdng GDP theo timg nam, vdi gid tq duong bieu hien cho thdng du cdn can tai khda, ngugc lai gia tri dm Id tham hyt can can tdi khda.
- Cudi cung, chiing tdi phan tich miic dd phat triSn thd chd dugc do ludng bdng mice do tham nhung (bien comiption) vd sir manh yeu v6 lugt le (bidn law) cua cdc nude qua timg nam, vdi gid tri cdng Idn bidu thi cho mgt the che cdng mgnh, vi du nhu it tham nhung va luat phdp tdt.
4. Ket qud vd thao luan 4.1. Thdng kSmdtd
Cd the thay gia tri ciia bien Growth dao ddng rdt Idn giiia cac nude va qua cac nam. Gid tri trung binh cua hai bien dai dien tham nhimg vd ha thdng luat phdp idn lugt Id -0,332 vd -0,291 cho thdy he thdng luat phdp, nhin chung, d cdc nude Ddng Nam A cdn yeu kem vd miic do tham nhiing khd cao. Miic cdp tin dung khu v\rc tu nhdn, trinh do hgc vdn, thu nhgp ddng ddu nhau d cdc nude. Tuy nhien, ti If Igm phdt Igi khd chenh lech, ti le ndy du qua cao hay qud thdp ciing deu khdng tdt cho nen kinh te. Tdng gid tri giao dich cua chimg khodn ndi dia ciing chdnh lech khd Idn tai cdc qudc gia ndy.
Tiep theo, bdng 2 trinh bay ma trdn tuang quan ciia eac bien nghien cixa. Hai diem ddng chii y cdn dugc nhdn manh trudc khi chiing tdi tidn hanh gidi thich mdt each he thdng vd tac ddng cua hgi nhap tdi chinh qudc td ddn tang trudng kinh td. Ddu tien, nhihig nude gidu thi ed xu hudng md ciia hon. Cu the, ddng vdn vdo tucmg quan duong vdi thu nhap va he sd nay cd y nghia tai miic y nghTa thdng ke 5%, cd nghia la nhirng nude cang gidu thi cdng md rgng giao dich tai chinh qudc td. Thic hai, nhung nude
Tgn bien Growth Corruplion Credit Inflation Schooling Income Slock
Flowcap Inflowcap
Ban Trung binh
0,056 -0,332 -0,291 I.5S9 0,535 1,620 3,495 1,436 0,022 0.369 0.056
ig 1; T h S n g k e m o ta Um nhat
0,152 2,254 1,894 2,192 1,544 1,915 4,748 2,326 0,444 3,309 0,152
Nho nhSt -0,059 -1,698 -1,646 0.494 -1,452 1,057 2,380 0,715 -0,219 -0,136 -0,059
D9 l^ch chuan
0,988 0,892 0,432 0,489 0,148 0,628 0,113 0.785
So 240 thing 6/2017 14
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c/) C ^ —
CO cdc hung gian tdi cWnh, thi hudng chiing khoan phdt hidn, he thong lu^t phap chat che, fliam nhung chinh phu thdp thi cd dg md ve tai khodn vdn Ion, thu hiit nhieu von ddu hi nuac ngodi (bidn income, law va biSn stock tuang quan duong vdi bidn Flowcap vd Inflowcap). Mdt phdt hien khd thu vi vd quan hgng Id d nhihig nude thu nhdp cang cao thi ti le tham nhung cdng thap va cd he thdng phdp luat cdng tot.
4.2. Hpi nhap tdi chinh qudc ti vd tdng trudng kinh te
Ddu tien, chiing tdi ddn hdnh hdi quy khdng bao gdm cdc bidn dgi dien hdi nhap tdi chinh qudc td dd xem xet tdc ddng ciia cdc ydu td ddn tang hudng kinh te. Hdi quy chi don gian gdm cd bian Income -thu nhap, bidn Schooling -hinh do hgc vdn, bidn Government -thang du can cdn tdi khda, bidn Inflation -lam phdt. Chimg tdi hinh bay kdt qua hdi quy OLS vd md hmh bdng GMM d bdng 3.
Bidn Schooling vd bian Income deu mang gid tri dm va cd y nghia thdng ka, Ndi cdch khdc, kdt qud cho thdy tdn tai mdi quan he nghich bidn giiia thu nhap vd trinh do hgc vdn ciia luc lugng lao dgng vdi tang hudng kinh td. Kdt qua ndy ly gidi thuc tidn cac nude dang phdt trien nhu Viet Nam vdn cd tdc do tang trudng cao dii thu nhap thdp, hoac cdc nude phat trien nhu My cd tdc do tang trudng thdp dii thu nhdp vd chat lucmg lao ddng cao. Khi cac qudc gia dat den mdt nguong phat trien nhat dinh thi kha nang tang trudng trong tuong lai se khdng con cao nira va thudng nhirng nude dang phat trien cd trinh do hoc van thap se ed tiem nang tang trudng cao hon. Lam phat tdc ddng duong ddn tang trudng kinh te nhung cdn cdn tdi khda lai khdng tdc ddng den tang trudng kinh te.
Ket qua hdi quy d bang 3 nhin chung phii hgp vdi ca hai md hinh kinh te lugng. Mo hinh bang GMM ciing khang dinh ket qua ciia md hinh hdi quy OLS. Tuy nhien, khi chuyen qua md hinh bdng, mgt sd quan sat ciia cac nude bi khuyet vi khdng du dii lieu hen tuc trong sudt khodng thdi gian tir nam 2005 ddn nam 2016.
sd 240 thdng 6/2017 kiiilitaJliiitlrii'ii
Bang 3: Kit qua hJi quy vM biin p h , t h u Q c t t t ^ J ? tang trtrtBg GDP|,TC t r 8 . d k uguM
Phtrofng phap OLS Phinmgpliip GMM
Schooling Income Inflation Government
.0,0488*
.0,0226»**
0,0163*
0,0253
-0,0463***
-0,0202***
0,0103 -0,00177 Ghichu: »•*, '*, 'thikifnmircynghia 1% S%va 10%
Bine 4; Ting tnrtng Mnh t l yi hoi n h | p tM chinh quoc t i
Flowcap Inflowcap
Phuong phap OLS -0,00998*
0,0951
Phuang phap GMM -0,00152
-0,0126 Ghichu: •**. **, * thi hien mice y nghm 1%, 5%va 10%
Ti^p theo, chnng toi nghien cto xem xet t4e d^ng dinh su anh huong cua hoi nhjp tai chinh qu6c 16 Ito cua hOinh^P tai chinh qn6c 16 len ting trudng kinh tang truong kinh te.
tS. Kit qui hSi quy bang 4 cho thiy khong co mOt 4J.Hpiiihfi>m chmh qudc tidmHithimgOiuki^
SV hdtrvmpih cho tac dOngciahpi nhap tti chinh ImhtitM chinh, thi chi va chinh sichkhic nhau qu6c tS din tang tracmg kinh IS. Sil dung u4c lucjng \J(,i; \,jaig bSng phuong phap h6i quy OLS la tdt hdi quy cho du Ii?u bang d6 kiSm soat tinh npi sinh nhat tuy nhita dir lieu tai chmh At de vi pham ve cua dong v6n. Tuy nhiSn, khdng c6 mOt chi s6 dai nOi sinh, da c^ng tuygn, tu tucmg quan va phuang dien cho hoi nhSp tai chinh qu6c t6 nio la co y nghia sai thay d6i. Do do, bai bao sft dimg mo hinh GLS vdi tang truong kinh ti. Do d6 chiing toi giai thich ii thay thi, phuong phap nay c6 kha nang dua ra kSt qua kinh ti luong nay la khong m?nh dS khjng k6t qua khong chech t6t nhjt. Ngoai ra, ket qua uac
Bang 5: Tang trir&ng kinh te va h5i nhap tai chtnh quoc te: dieu kiSn kinh te A - Tic dong oia ySu to thu nhlp
Bi6n ph^i thuoc: t£c do tang traimg GDP thyc tren dSu ngucri, 2005-2016, udc luong bang mo hinh OLS
Do luvng h$i nh^p t^i cbinta qudc te IFI
Flowcap 0,0188 Inflowcap -0,353
B - Tdc dgng ciia yeu to trinh dd hgc vdn
Bien phu thuoc: toe dg tang trudng GDP tiiuc tren ddu ngudi GLS ' '
Do lirimg h$i nhap tai chinh qu6c t l IFI
Flowcap -0,494 Inflowcap -0,275 IFI: international financial integration - hgi nhdp tdi chinh
Ghi chd: ***, **, * the hien mucy nghia 1%, 5% vd 10%.
SS 240 thdng 6/2017 16 IFI*(Incoine)
-0,006 -0,122*
1,2005-2016, udc IFI*(SchooUng)
-0,175*
0,241 quoc te
Income -0,0393***
-0,0479***
lugng bang md hinh
Schooling -0,106**
-0,0892*
KinhleJhaUrieii
Bang 6: Tang trirdng Idnh tS vd hdi nhap tdi chfnh quoc t^: md rdng tai chinh A - Sir phat trien ciia tai chinh ngan hang
Bien phy t h u ^ : t6c dg tang trudng GDP thuc tren dlu again.
Do lirdng hoi nhap tai chfnh qu6c te IFI
Flowcap 0,0595***
Inflowcap 0,139
B - Sir phat trien ciia thi tnrcmg chiing khoan
Bien phu thuoc. toe dp tang truong GDP thuc tren Shi ngudi, Do Ivitng hdi nhap t^i chfnh qu6c te IFI
2005-2016, iroc luong b5ng mc IFI*{Credit)
-0,0529***
0,00324
2005-2016, udc luong bSngmc IFl*(Stock)
i hinh GLS Credit -0,0293***
-0,0304***
1 hinh GLS Stock Flowcap
Inflowcap
IFI: international financial integration - hgi nhgp tai chinh quoc ti.
Ghichu: ***, **, * the hien mirc y nghTa /%, 5%va 10%.
lugng khi chiing tdi sii dung udc lugng GMM ciing cho kdt qud tuong thich vdi k§t qua ndy.
Trdi vdi eac ly thuyet vd bang chdng thuc nghiem trudc, ket qua bdng 5 chi ra rang hgi nhdp tai chinh qudc tg khdng cd tdc ddng duong den tang trudng kinh te d eac qudc gia cd mire GDP tren dau ngudi hay trinh do hgc van cao. Ket qua hdi quy nay cung cho thdy hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te chi thiic day tang tmdng kinh te d nhirng qudc gia ngheo, ngugc lai, hgi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te tac ddng am den tang trudng d nhirng qudc gia gidu, tuy nhien nhan djnh ndy khdng viing (vi ehi cd mdt trong hai bien dai
dien cd y nghia thdng ke tai miic 10%).
Tuong tu, he sd hdi quy bdng 6 cho thdy hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te khdng tac dgng duong den tang trudng d nhiing qudc gia cd he thdng ngdn hdng phdt tnen nhung thi trudng chiing khoan phat trien lai hd trg dieu ndy. Ket qua ndy khdng bde bd gid dinh rang hdi nhap tdi chinh qudc te khdng lien quan den tang trudng kinh te khi mdi quan he nay dugc dat trong dieu kien phat trien tdi chinh. Tuy nhien, A cd su khdng thdng nhdt trong ket qua ciia hai chi sd dai dien nen khong the ket luan rang hdi nhdp tdi chinh thiie ddy tang trudng kinh te trong dieu kien Bang 7: Tang trirdng kinh te vd hoi nhap tai chinh quoc te: yeu to the che
A - He thong luat phap
Bien phu thuQC toe do tang truong GDP thuc tren dau ngirm, 2005-2016, uoc lircrngbingiTiohinh G Do luong hpi nhap tai chinh quoc i% IFI IFI*(Law) Lav
Inflowcap
B - Mue do tham nhung
Bien phu thuoc: toe dp tang tnrang GDP thirc tren dii Do ludng hpi nhap tai ehinh quoc te
0,163
IFI
0,0220 -0,0288***
, 2005-2016, irac luong bang mo hinh GLS lFI*(Con-uption) Corruption
Inflowcap IFI: inte Gin dm
il financial integration - hoi nhap tai chinh quoc i ihe hicn muc v nghJa 1%. 5% va 10%
So 240 thdng 6/2017
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Bang 8: Ting trutag Unh ti va h$i nhap tii chinh qu6c tl: chfnh »4ch vi mo
t:^'^,.riT^Z.., ^ o n . GDP .hue .Tin daunguojjOOl-^OI „. uoc luon.bjln, n.6 hinh GLS
Do luong hgi nhap tai chinh quoc tfi Flowcap
Inflowcap
IFI: international financial integration - hgi nhqp tai chinh quoc ti Ghichu: ***, **, *thihienmucynghial%.5%vd 10%
IFI*(Govenunent) Goveniment -0,0235
0,0580
0,00106 -0,00364
-0,0644 0,0500
B - Chinh sich tiSn t?
Bi6n phy thupc: tdc dp tang truong GDP thuc tren dau ngu£n, Do liTorng h$i nhap tai chinh qnoc te
i, 2005-2016. udc lugng bang mo hinh GLS lFI*(Inflation) Inflation Flowcap
Inflowcap
0,00601 0,0838
-0,00474 -0,0551
0,0271*^
0,0284**
IFI: international financial integranon - hoi nhdp tdi chinh q Ghi chu: ***, **, * thi kien mucy nghTa 1%. 5% vd 10%
thi trudng tai chinh phdt trien.
Kgt qua d bang 7 khdng ling hg eho quan diem rdng hgi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te giiip tang trudng kinh tS khi tdng cudng su phdt tn6n the che. Cu thd, he sd hdi quy ciia bien tuong tdc ve luat phdp mang ddu dm, eon bien tucmg tac cua tham nhung cho ra ket qud khdng cd y nghia thdng ke, dieu ndy cd nghTa la hdi nhdp tdi ehinh qudc te tac ddng am den tang trudng kinh te khi qudc gia tang cudng luat phap. Mac dii ket qua hoi quy cung cap mgt sd ling hd cho quan diem hdi nhap tai chinh qudc te giiip tdng trudng kinh te phy thuoc vao su dn dinh vT md, nhung phdt hien nay khdng dii manh de khang djnh mdi quan he ndy. Tdm lai, bdi bao khdng tim thdy bang chung cho quan diem rang hdi nhdp tai ehinh qudc te tac ddng duong den tang trudng kinh te chi ddi vdi nhihig qudc gia cd the che ehinh sach tdt.
Cudi Cling, ket qud d bang 8 ciing khdng ling hg cho quan diem rang hgi nhap tai chinh qudc te thiie day tang tnidng kinh te. Ddi vdi bidn tuong tac, hdi nhap tdi ehinh qudc te khdng tac dgng ddn tang trudng khi chinh phii thang du can can tai khda va ket qua khi xet den lam phat ciing cho ra tuong tu.
5. Ket luan vd ham y chinh sach
Bdi bdo nay sir dung du lieu cua 11 quoc gia Ddng Nam A giai doan tir nam 2005 d%n nam 2016 vd nhieu phuong phap kinh tg lugng dd kiem tra tac ddng ciia hgi nhap tdi chinh qudc t8 len tang trudng kinh te, ddng thdi phan tich lieu hdi nhdp tai chinh qudc le tac dgng den tang truong kinh tg cd phu thugc vao miic do phat tricn kinh ti. trinh do hgc
vdn, phdt triSn tdi chinh, sir phdt hien ciia he thong luat phdp, muc do tham nhung ciia chinh phu va cac chinh sach vT md. Bai bao ddng gdp vdo nghien cuu thue nghiem mgt sd vdn d6 sau: (i) sir dyng ket hgp hai chi sd do ludng hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc tS; (ii) xem xet tac ddng ciia hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te d6n tang trudng kinh te cho man dir lieu ciia cac nude khu vuc Ddng Nam A; (iii) ap dung phuong phap kinh te lugng de xCr ly chech thdng ke tdn tai trong cdc nghien cuu trade ve tdc ddng cua hdi nhdp tai chinh qudc te den tang trudng kinh te; vd (iv) kiem tra xem lieu hdi nhdp tdi chinh qudc te chi thiic day tang trudng kinh le trong mgt sd dieu kien kinh te, tai chinh, the che, chinh sdch dac biet md cdc nghien cuu trudc da de cap hay khdng.
Ket qua khdng ling hg cho quan diem rang hpi nhdp tai chinh qudc te tu nd cd the thiic day tang trudng kmh tB, tham chi khi cd cae dieu kien khac bd trg (kinh iB, tdi ehinh, the che vd chinh sdch). Tuy nhien, ket qud ndy khdng am ehi eac nude cd dg md ve tdi khoan vdn cao thi khdng gan Hen vdi sir thdnh cdng eiia nfin kinh te. Ngodi ra, chiing tdi phat hien ra rang hgi nhdp tai chinh qudc te khdng cd quan he vdi tang trudng kinh te va kk qua ndy la nhdt quan khi chiing tdi su dyng nhidu phuong phdp kinh te lugng. Tuong ty, mac dii cd nhung ngoai le v^ ket qua dugc dua ra nhung chiing tdi khdng bac bd gia thiet rang hdi nhap tai chinh qudc td khdng lien quan den tang trudng kinh tg tham chi khi kdt hgp vdi cac dac diem ve kinh te, tai chinh, thg che va vi md
Mac dii ket qud nghien cuu phan Idn khdng ung hd eho
Sd 240 thdng 6/2017
kinlikyytrk'n
vigc hdi nh|p tdi chmh qudc td thuc ddy tang trudng trinh md rgng hdi nhap qudc te, neu chinh phu tan dung kinh td nhung mgt s6 kit qua hdi quy ngoai le duong, tdt co hgi ndy, se thiic ddy tang trudng kinh te m^nh me chdng han nhu d cac nude ngheo nan ttii hgi nhdp tai hon. Ngoai ra, tang cudng he thdng luat phap vd tinh chinh qudc tS tac dgng duong ddn tang trudng kinh t6. minh bach ciia chinh phu se cai thien dugc dg md cua Kdt qua nay cd ham y chmh sdch cho YiBt Nam. Cg tdi khoan vdn, tu do giup phat trien nen kinh te mot thd, Yi%t Nam hien tai dang d giai d o ^ ddu cda qud each hieu qua.
Ldi thua nhdn/cdm on: Nghien cuu ndy dugc tdi trg bdi Quy phat trifin khoa hoc vd cdng nghe quoc gia (NAFOSTED) trong dS tai ma s6 502.99-2015.27.
Ghi chu:
1. G6m: Brunei,Campuchia, Dong Timor, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanraar, Philippines, Singapore, Thai Lan, Viet Nam.
Tdi li|u tham khao
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S6 240 thing 6/2017 19 klllllll'J'lliltll'iOll
