Nguyen Quang Khai Taing Dong nam 2019-
Chuyen tham cua Tong thong V. Putin toi Saudi Arabia va cac Tieu vuong qudc .\rab Thong nhal (UAE), hai quoc gia co vai tro va anh huong ldn nhat, hai dong minh quan trong nhat cua My tai Trung Dong tir ngay 14-16 thang 10 nam qua da dua quan he hgp tac giua Nga va cac nudc nay len miic phat triSn cao nhat ttr tmoc tdi nay. Hang chuc thoa thuan hop tac trong tat ca cac linh vuc da dugc ky ket, ke ca hgp tac quan su. Cac nha lanh dao cua ca Nga, Saudi Arabia va UAE dSu danh gia rat cao kjt qua chuyen thSm va cho ring quan he hgp tac cua hg vdi Nga chua bao gid phat trien tdt dep nhu hi^n nay. Lanh dao cao nhat cua ca ba nudc dju khing dinh mong muon phdt triSn manh me hon nua quan he httu nghi va hgp tac tay doi.
Neu nhu trade day cdn cd nhQng hoai nghi ve vai trd ciia Nga d khu v^c Trung Ddng, thi nSm 2018 li nSm khing djnh vi the ngay cang vttng chic ciia Nga tai khu v\rc. NSm 2015, khi Nga dua quan md chiSn djch quan sir tai Syria, nhieu nha quan sat cho ring Nga se bi sa lay gidng nhu Lien Xd d Afghanistan trade dSy. Tuy nhien, di6u dd da khdng xay ra.
Den nay vdi s\f giiip dd cua cdc lire lugng vu Irang Nga, quan dpi Syria da gianh dugc thdng lgi to ldn, giai phdng dugc hcm 90%
lanh thd. Quan dpi Nga vd Syria nim hodn todn the chii d^ng, tinh hinh tren chi6n traong Id khdng the dao nguge dugc, buoc cdc luc lugng doi lap phdi budc vao ddm phdn. Tren tradng qudc ti, vi thS ciia chinh quySn Bashar Al-Assad ngdy cdng dugc nang cao. Cdc nudc Arab trudc day tay chay chinh quySn Syria nhu cdc Tieu vucmg qudc Arab Thdng nhit, Jordan tham chi Saudi Arabia dang cd ki hoach md Iai Dai sii quan cua minh tai Damascus. Lien dodn Arab cung dang xem xet dua Syria trd lai td chuc ndy.
Dien dan Astana do Nga, Thd NhT Ky va Iran chii tri da dua ra nhieu sdng kien vd dat dugc thda thuan ve cdc nguyen tac nham gidi qu\ et cudc khiing hoang Syria keo ddi 8 ndm nay. Xhieu nha quan sdt chinh tri cho rang, con dudng di tdi hod binh cho Syria phai qua Astana.
Ve mat chien luge, viec Nga dua quan sang Syria khdng chi giup chinh quyen ciia Tdng thdng B. Al-Assad khdi bi sup dd ma cdn de khang dinh sir trd lai manh me ciia nudc Nga d khu vuc Trung Ddng, phuc hdi vai trd cudng qudc ciia minh trong viec giai quyet cdc van de khu vuc vd qudc t^. Cdn cu hdi quan Tartous va cdn cil khdng quan Hmeimim ciia Nga tai Syria dugc trang bi cdc ioai vii khf tdi tdn nhat dang ldm thay ddi tucmg quan luc lugng tai Trung Ddng. Su cd mdt vi quan su tai Syria cho phdp Nga kiim sodt toan bg viing trdi vd vimg bien khu vuc Dia Trung Hdi vd Trung Ddng, ciing cd vi tri ciia minh.
Ngay 18 thdng 11 ndm 2019, ngoai tradng My Mike Pompeo tuyen bd: Chinh quyto Tdng thdng Donald Trump nhit tri ring viec xdy dung cdc khu dinh cu dan su cua Israel a Bd Tdy, v6 ban chdt khdng phdi Id khdng phu hgp vdi luat phap qudc t i Thu tudng Israel Benjamin Netanyahu ngay lap tiic tuyen bd, sir thay ddi quan diSm cua My coi cac khu dinh cu Do Thdi khdng phdi Id hdnh dgng phi phap la mdt viec ldm "siia chua sai lim lich su".
Tuyen bd cua Washington dugc dua ra trong bdi cdnh ndi bd nudc My hk sue cdng thing, Tdng thdng My D. Trump dang phdi ddi mjt vdi nguy co bi ludn tdi va cd khd nang bi phe truat. Chinh tradng Israel cung dang trong tinh trang het siic hi tic. DSn nay, sau cudc bau Cli lan hai, da qua han chdt theo quy djnh cila Hien phap, thti tudng B. Netanyahu van chua thdnh lap dugc chinh phii, tdng
Tgp chi nghien ciiru CHAU PHI & TRI
Trung Dong nam 2019... Nguyen Quang Khai
thdng Reuven Rivlin dang tinh kha nang giao cho Beny Gantz, thii llnh dang "Xanh-Tring"
(dang doi lap) dung ra thanh lap chinh phii mdi. Day la Ian dau tien trong lich su Israel da khong thanh lap dugc chinh phii sau bau cu. Trong tinh hinh phuc tap va cang thang nhu vay, tuyen bo cua chinh quyen My dugc coi la "mgt hon da nem hai con chim". Thu nhdt, nham tranh thii sy iing hp ciia cac nhan vat Do Thai trong npi bp chinh quyen My ddi vdi tdng thdng D. Trump trong cugc khung hoang vdi Qudc hgi. Thu hai, gdp phan ciiu van thli tudng Israel B. Netanyahu khdi cudc khiing hoang chinh phu hien nay.
2. Anh hirong cua My tai Trung Dong suy giam
Quyet dinh nit cac lyc lugng ciia My khdi khu vyc Trung Ddng va mdi day nhat la My nit quan ra khdi mien BIC Syria la mdt trong nhiing bing chung ve sy that bai trong chinh sach ciia Washington tai Trung Dong. Tong thong D. Trump da cdng khai thiia nhan sy thit bai ciia My d khu vuc nay ke tir cugc xam luge Iraq nam 2003. Ong ndi: Washington da chi 8 ngan ty USD cho cac hoat dgng quan sy d Tnmg Ddng ma khong dem lai lgi ich gi. Sy can dy ciia My vao cac van de cua khu vyc la mgt giai phap tdi te nhat.
Quy6t dinh nay ciia Tdng thdng D. Trump da gap phai mot lan sdng chi trich manh me khdng chi ciia dang Dan chii ma ca dang Cgng hoa, bdi vi day dugc coi la mdt sy nit lui khdi khu vyc, ddng minh, tao dieu kien de Thd NhT Ky md chien dich quan sy tieu diet cac luc lugng vu trang ciia nguoi Kurd d miin Bac Syria Ngay 17 thang 10 nSm 2019, Qudc hgi My da bd philu vdi da sd phieu ap dao chua timg cd (354/60), trong do cd 129 philu ciia dang Cgng hoa len an Trump quyet dinh nit quan.
Cudc xung dot Syria dang buac vdo hoi kit khdng cd su tham gia cita My
Viec My nit quan khoi Syria khong phai nhu lau Nam gdc giai thich la do da hoan thanh cudc chien chdng td chuc Nha nudc Hdi giao (IS) va de tap trung chdng chinh quyen Bashar Al-Assad, Nga va Wan. Ly do nay hoan toan khdng thuyet phuc. My quyet dinh nit quan khdi mien Bac Syria chu yeu la do tinh hinh tai Syria khdng the dao nguge, chinh quyen cua Tdng thong Bashar Al-Assad dugc sy ho trg ciia cac lyc Iugng vii trang Nga da gianh dugc nhieu thang lgi, giai phdng 95%
lanh thd, cudc xung dot dang di vao hoi ket.
Tinh hinh d Syria la khdng the dao nguge.
Hon 90% lanh thd Syria da dugc giai phdng, nhieu nudc Arab da ndi lai quin h? ngoai giao vdi Syria va hien dang tho^ thuan de dua Syria trd lai Lien doan Arab (AL). Dien dan Astana dang phat huy ket qua trong giai quyet cudc ximg dot Syria ma khdng cd My. Uy ban Hien phap 150 thanh vien dai dien cho chinh quyen Damascus, phe doi lap va tat ca cac ting ldp ciia xa hgi dan su lan dau tien da dugc thanh lap va td chuc cac cugc hgp tai Geneva. Tdng thdng B. Al-Assad dang lam chu cugc chai. Cac nha quan sat cho rang Nga, Iran va chinh quyen Syria dang "thu chien lgi pham" sau khi My rdt.
Sa lay tgi Afghanistan, My dang tim cdch rut qudn
Theo cac ngudn tin ciia My, cugc chien Afghanistan keo dai 18 nam ke tu nam 2001 din nay d3 ngdn het ctia My tren dudi 1 nghin ty USD, khoang 150 nghin ngirdi Afghanistan va hon 2,5 nghin linh My bi chit. Hien nay d Afghanistan cd khoang 14 nghin binh sT My.
Hoat dgng ciia My tai Afghanistan tieu tdn ngan sach nha nudc 45 ty USD hang nam.
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 01(173) thang 1/2020
Nguyen Quang Khai T m n g E)onq nam 2019..-
\'di sue manh quan su va chi phi khdng 16 nhu vay. 18 nam da qua M> va cac nudc Lien minh quan sy Bac Dai 1 a\ Ducmg da khong tieu diet dugc Taliban. Nguge lai, Taliban hien kiem soat ban 60% lanh thd dang trd thanh mgt luc lugng chinh tri, quan su cd anh hudng ldn d Afghanistan. Taliban dang tren the manh, giai phap cho cugc xung dot Afghanistan khong cdn nam trong tay Washington.
Mac du thda thuan cudi cCing giiia Washington va Taliban chua dugc ky ket, nhimg dgng lyc de dat dugc thoa thuan la rat manh me. Van de mau chdt nhat la My dong y nit quan khdi Afghanistan s6 tao dieu kien de dang han cho vi?c noi lai cac cugc dam phan sap tdi tai Doha. Nhu vay, cd ca sd de tin tudng mgt Hiep dinh cudi ciing se sdm dugc ky ket.
Tong thong D. Trump tham Afghanistan ngay 28 t h ^ g 11 nam 2019 da khang dinh se noi lai cac cugc d^m phan vdi Taliban va dtra cdc binh sy My ve nha sdm. Ong cung muon dat dugc thda t h u ^ vdi Taliban de cd the bao cao ve
"thanh qua lich sir" nay tnrdc cugc hgp Qudc hgi va tranh thii phieu trong cudc bau cii Tdng thong cudi nam 2020.
Trong cugc hgp npi cac mdi day, Tdng thdng D. Trump ndi: Vi?c Lien Xo dua quan sang tham chiln tai Afghanistan la nguyen nhSn dan den su pha san va sup dd ciia Lien bang Xd Viit. Ong D. Trump dat cau hoi: CJ each xa Afghanistan 10 nghin km, tai sao My lgi phai dua quan sang tham chien d dat nudc nay?. Viec nit quan khdi Afghanistan sau tuyen bo nit cac luc lugng My khdi Syria la nam trong ke hoach ciia Tong thdng D. Trump nhim giam sy cd mat ciia Washington tai khu vyc Trung Ddng, phuc vy cho chinh sach
"nudc My tren het" cua dng.
Tai Afghanistan, My da bi sa lay vao cugc chiln keo dai 18 nam ma Tdng thong D.
Trump ggi la "mdt cudc chien khdng cd hdi kit". Ong dang rit mudn nit khdi viing la>
nay thong qua cac cugc dam phan vdi phong trao ddi lap Taliban tai Doha cua Qatar. Viec nit quan My khoi Afghanistan, giong nhu Syria cung se tao ra mot khoang trdng cho Nga, Pakistan, Iran, An Dp va ca Tmng Qudc khi Bac Kinh dang chti trucmg md rgng anh hudng ciia minh sang phia Tay thdng qua sang kiln "Vanh dai, con dudng".
Khdng binh dinh duac Iraq, Baghdad rai vdo vong dnh hu&ng cua Tehran
Tai Iraq, mac dii chinh quyen ciia Tdng thdng Saddam Hussein bi lat dd da 16 nam, mgt lyc lugng hiing hau ciia My cd mat tai nudc nay da khdng dn dinh dugc tmh hinh. Cac cudc bieu tinh ram rg dau thang 10 nam 2019 vira qua tren k h ^ dat nudc Iraq chdng chinh phii, ddi cai thien ddi song da iam gan 200 ngudi chet va hang ngan ngudi khac bi thuang. Ngay cang cd nhieu tieng noi ciia ngudi dan ciing nhu lanh dao Iraq doi My nit quan. Iraq dang rai vao vdng anh hudng cua Iran.
Hien nay, 3/4 lanh dao cap cao ciia Iraq theo dong Shiite than Iran, trong dd cd Tdng thdng Bahram Salih. Phdn ldn cac nhan vat nay da sdng thdi gian dai, dugc hgc tap va dao tao tai Iran. Sau khi chl dp Saddam Hussein bi sup dd nam 2003, ngudi Shiite len nim quyen, dky ngudi Sunni trd thanh phe d6i lap thieu sd. Cac lyc lugng dan quan Hashd Sha'abi theo ddng Shiite than Iran dugc coi la quan dpi thir hai tai Iraq ddng vai trd hit sue quan trgng trong viec giu gin an ninh va bao ve chinh quyen Shiite.
Theo bao The National Interest cua My, Dai sii quan My tai Baghdad la ldn nhat thi
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAL PHI & T R I " "
Trung Dong n^m 2019.. Nguyen Quang Khai
gidi vdi dien tich gip 6 lin tru sd Lien hgp qudc tai New York, bien chl 1000 can bd iigoai giao va cac quan chirc tryc thudc. So nhan vien an ninh bao ve Su quan len tdi 3000 ngudi. Chi phi hang nam cho Dai su quan nay len tdi gin 1 ty USD. Mac dii vay, anh hudng cua My tai Iraq chua bao gid giam Slit nhu hien nay ke tir khi lat do che do Saddam Hussein nam 2003. Cd the ndi, Iran dang thang trong cudc chien gianh anh hudng tai Iraq.
Cdng thdng v&i dong minh Tho NhiKy My da de mat Thd NhT Ky la ddng minh quan trgng nhat ciia minh va la quoc gia thanh vien quyen lyc thii hai trong khoi Hiep udc Bic Dai tay ducmg (NATO). Nhiing nd lyc ciia Washington trong viec ban gan sy ran niit va giai quyet cdc bat ddng trong quan he cang thing vdi Ankara da khdng thanh cdng. Tnrdc nhung ldi de doa cua Tdng thdng D. Trump "se pha huy nen kinh te ciia Thd NhT Ky", Tdng thdng R. Erdogan van quyet dinh md chien dich quan sy vao mien Bac Syria dl quet sach Iyc lugng cua "Cac don vi bao ve nhan dan (YPG)" ciia ngudi Kurd, ddng minh ciia My trong cugc chien chdng khiing bd ma khdng phdi hgp vdi My.
Bit chip cac bien phap trimg phat ciia My, Thd Nhi Ky vin thi hanh chinh sach hudng Ddng, thit chat quan he vdi Nga. Ankara van quyit djnh mua he thdng phdng khdng hien dai S-400 va se mua may bay chiln diu Sokhoi-35 cua Nga, tiip tuc quan he vdi Iran, ling hp phong trao Hamas d Gaza va di dau trong viec chdng lai quyit dinh ciia My cdng nhan Jerusalem la Thii dd ciia Israel.
Cugc xung dot Israel - Palestine be tdc Giai phap cho cudc xung dot Israel Palestine cang ngay cang di vao bl tac do
Tdng thdng D. Trump da thay doi hoan toan quan diem ciia chinh quyen B. Obama. Viec cdng nhan Jerusalem la thii do ciia Israel va chuyen dai sii quan My ve thanh pho nay, viec cong nhan cao nguyen Golan ciia Syria bi chiem dong la mdt phan lanh tho cua Israel, hgp phap hoa cac khu dinh cu cua Israel d Bd Tay chiing td Washington hoan toan thien vi Israel va khdng cdn co the ddng vai trd la ngudi trung gian hoa giai dang tin cay trong dam phan hda binh. Da ba nam trdi qua ke tir khi ong Trump trd thanh chii nhan ciia Nha Tring, cudc xung dot Israel - Palestine khdng nhung khdng dugc giai quyet ma cdn trd nen cang thing hcm. Khdng chi ngudi Palestine ma ca ngudi dan Israel ciing td ra that vgng trudc ke hoach hoa binh vdi cai ten "Thoa thuan the ky" ciia My.
Thoa thuan nay nhim giai quyit cugc xung dot Israel-Palestine nhtmg coi nhu da that bai trudc khi nd dugc cdng bd chinh thiic, vi nd di nguge lai cac nghi quyet ciia Lien hgp qudc, dac biet la nghi quyet 181 (1947) ciia Dai hdi ddng Lien hgp qudc, nghi quyet 242 (1967), 338 (1972) ciia Hdi ddng Bao an, Hiep dinh Oslo ve c^c nguySn tic ciia giai phap (1993) ky ket giua Israel va Palestine va giai phap hai nha nudc da dugc cgng ddng qudc te va chinh My va Israel trudc day da timg ling hd va di nguge lai chinh nghi quyet nam 1978 cua Bd Ngoai giao My coi cac khu dinh cu ciia Israel la "khdng phu hgp vdi luat phap qudc te".
Ke hoach nay cua chinh quyen D. Trump thuc chat la nham xoa bd van de Palestine, hoan toan khdng de cap gi den viec thanh lap Nha nudc Palestine theo dudng bien gidi trudc nam 1967 ma chi tap tning vao viec dau tu ggi la "giiip dd" Bd Tay va dai Gaza xay dung va phat trien kinh te. Day la y dd
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 01(173) thing 1/2020
Nguyen Quang Khai Trung Pong nim 20l9-ii
Vdi sue manh quan su va chi phi khdng 16 nhu vay, 18 nam da qua M\ va cac nudc Lien minh quan sy Bac Dai Tay Duong da khdng tieu diet dugc Taliban. Nguge lai, Taliban hien kiem soat hon 60% lanh thd dang trd thanh mdt luc lugng chinh tri, quan su cd anh hudng ldn d Afghanistan. Taliban dang tren the manh, giai phap cho cugc ximg dot Afghanistan khdng con nam trong tay Washington.
Mac du thda thuan cudi cung giira Washington va Taliban chua dugc ky ket, nhimg dgng lyc de dat dugc thda thuan la rat m ^ me. Van de mau chdt nhat la My ddng y nit quan khoi Afghanistan se tao dieu kien de diing hon cho viec ndi lai cac cudc dam phan sSp tdi t^ Doha. Nhu vay, cd ca sd de tin tudng m^t H i ^ dinh cuoi ciing se sdm dugc ky ket.
T6ng th^ng D. Trump tham Afghanistan ngay 28 thang 11 nam 2019 da khing dinh se noi tai cac cugc dam phan vdi Taliban va dua cac binh s^ My ve nha sdm. Ong ciing mudn dat dugc thda thuan vdi Taliban de co the bao cdo ve
"thanh qua lich sii" nay trudc cupc hpp Qudc hpi va tranh thii phieu trong cudc bau cii Tdng thong cudi nam 2020.
Trong cupc hpp ndi cac mdi day, Tdng thdng D. Trump noi: Viec Lien Xd dua quan sang tham chien tai Afghanistan la nguyen nhan dan den su pha san va sup dd cua Lien bang Xd Viet. Ong D. Tnomp dat cau hdi: Ci each xa Afghanistan 10 nghin km, tai sao My lgi phai dua quan sang tham chien d dat nudc nay?. Viec nit quan khdi Afghanistan sau tuyen bo nit cac lyc lugng My khdi Syria la nim trong ke hoach ciia Tdng thdng D. Trump nhim giam sy cd mat ciia Washington tai khu vyc Trung Ddng, phuc vy cho chinh sach
"nudc My tren het" ciia dng.
Tai Afghanistan, My da bi sa lay vao cugc chien keo dai 18 nam ma Tong thdng p- Trump ggi la "mdt cudc chien khong cd hdi kit". Ong dang rat mudn nit khdi viing lay nay thdng qua cac cugc dam phan vdi phong trao d6i lap Taliban tai Doha ciia Qatar. Viec nit quan My khdi Afghanistan, gidng nhu Syria cCing se tao ra mdt khoang trdng cho Nga, Pakistan, Iran, An Do va ca Trung Qudc khi Bic Kinh dang chii truong md rdng anh hudng cua minh sang phia Tay thdng qua sang kien "Vanh dai, con dudng".
Khdng binh dinh duac Iraq, Baghdad roi vdo vdng dnh huang eua Tehran
Tai Iraq, mac du chinh quyen ciia Tdng thdng Saddam Hussein bi lat dd da 16 nam, mgt luc lugng hiing hau ciia My cd mat tai nudc nay da khdng dn dinh dugc tinh hinh. Cac cudc biiu tinh ram rg diu thang 10 nam 2019 vira qua tren k h ^ dit nudc Iraq chdng chinh phii, ddi cai thien ddi sdng da lam gan 200 ngudi chit va hang ngan ngudi khdc bi thuong. Ngay cang cd nhiiu tiing ndi ciia ngudi dan ciing nhu lanh dao Iraq doi My nit quan. Iraq dang roi vao vdng anh hudng cua Iran.
Hien nay, 3/4 lanh dao cip cao cua Iraq theo ddng Shiite than Iran, trong dd cd Tong thdng Bahram Salih. Phin ldn cac nhan vat nay da song thdi gian dai, dugc hgc tap va dao tao tai Iran. Sau khi chl do Saddam Hussein bi syp do nam 2003, ngudi Shiite len nim quyen, day ngudi Sunni trd thanh phe ddi lap thieu sd. Cac luc lugng dan quan Hashd Sha'abi theo dong Shiite than h-an dugc coi la quan ddi thii hai tai Iraq ddng vai trd hit sdc quan trgng trong viec giir gin an ninh va bao ve chinh quyin Shiite.
Theo bao The National Interest ciia My, Dai sii quan My tai Baghdad la ldn nhit thi
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAL PHI & TRC"'- -^AK,,. „i m / m \ t^^
Trung Oong nam 2019.. Nguyen Quang Khai
gidi vdi dien tich gip 6 lin try sd Lien hgp qudc tai New York, bien chl 1000 can bg
"goal giao va cac quan chiic tryc thudc. Sd nhan vien an ninh bao ve Sir quan len tdi 3000 ngudi. Chi phi hang nam cho Dai su quan nay len tdi gin 1 ty USD. Mac dii vay, anh hudng ciia My tai Iraq chua bao gid giam sut nhu hien nay ke tir khi lat do che do Saddam Hussein nam 2003. Co the ndi, Iran dang thang trong cugc chien gianh anh hudng tai Iraq.
Cang thdng v&i dong minh Tho NhiKy My da de mat Thd NhT Ky la ddng minh quan trpng nhat ciia minh va la qudc gia thanh vien quyen lyc thu hai trong khdi Hiep udc Bic Dai tay duong (NATO). Nhumg nd lyc ciia Washington trong viec han gin sy ran nut va giai quyet cac bat ddng trong quan he cang thing vdi Ankara da khdng thanh cdng. Trudc nhiing ldi de doa ciia Tdng thdng D. Trump "se pha huy nen kinh te ciia Thd NhT Ky", Tdng thdng R. Erdogan vin quyit dinh md chiln dich quan sy vao mien Bac Syria dl quet sach luc lugng cua "Cac dan vi bao ve nhan dan (YPG)" ciia ngudi Kurd, ddng minh ciia My trong cupc chiln chdng khimg bd ma khdng phdi hgp vdi My.
Bit chip cac bien phap trimg phat ctia My, Thd NhT Ky vin thi hanh chinh sach hudng Ddng, thit chat quan he vdi Nga. Ankara van quyit dinh mua he thdng phong khdng hien dai S-400 va se mua may bay chiln dau Sokhoi-35 ciia Nga, tiip tuc quan he vdi Iran, ung hp phong trao Hamas d Gaza va di dau trong viec chdng lai quyit dinh ciia My cdng nhan Jerusalem la Thu dd ciia Israel.
Cuoc xung dot Israel - Palestine bi tac Giai phap cho cudc xung dot Israel Palestine cang ngay cang di vao bl tic do
Tdng thdng D. Trump da thay ddi hoan toan quan diem ciia chinh quyen B. Obama. Viec cdng nhan Jerusalem la thu do cua Israel va chuyen dai sii quan My ve thanh phd nay, viec cong nhan cao nguyen Golan ciia Syria bj chiem dong la mdt phan lanh tho cua Israel, hgp phap hoa cac khu dinh cu cua Israel d Bd Tay chiing td Washington hoan toan thien vi Israel va khdng con co the dong vai trd la ngudi trung gian hoa giai dang tin cay trong dam phan hda binh. Da ba nam troi qua ke tir khi dng Trump trd thanh chii nhan ciia Nha Trang, cudc xung dot Israel - Palestine khdng nhumg khong dugc giai quyet ma con trd nen cang thang han. Khdng chi ngudi Palestine ma ca ngudi dan Israel ciing td ra that vgng trudc ke hoach hoa binh vdi cai ten "Thoa thuan the ky" cua My.
Thoa thuan nay nhim giai quyit cugc xung dot Israel-Palestine nhtmg coi nhu da thit bai trudc khi nd dugc cdng bo chinh thiic, vi nd di nguge lai cac nghi quyit cua Lien hgp qu6c, dac biet la nghi quyet 181 (1947) ciia Dai hgi ddng Lien hgp quoc, nghi quyit 242 (1967), 338 (1972) ciia Hgi ddng Bao an, Hiep dinh Oslo ve cac nguyen tac ciia giai phap (1993) ky ket giiia Israel va Palestine va giai phap hai nha nudc da dugc cgng ddng qudc tl va chinh My va Israel trudc day da timg ling hg va di nguge lai chinh nghi quyet nam 1978 cua Bg Ngoai giao My coi cac khu dinh cu ctia Israel la "khdng phii hgp vdi luat phap quocte".
K I hoach nay cua chinh quyen D. Trump thuc chit la nhim xoa bd van de Palestine, hoan toan khdng de cap gi din viec thanh lap Nha nudc Palestine theo dudng bien gidi trudc nam 1967 ma chi tap trung vao viec diu tu gpi la "giiip dd" Bd Tay va dai Gaza xay dung va phat trien kinh te. Day la y do
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHl & TRUNG fiONG so 01(173) thang 1/2020
Nguyen Quang Khai Trung E>dnq nam 2019.^
muon dimg chieu bai kinh te de lam lu md cac muc licu chinh tri, hgp phap hoa sy chiem ddng ciia Israel ddi vdi cac vimg lanh thd Palestine.
Chinh sach nay dang lam mat long tin ciia cac ddng minh ciia My tai khu vyc va phii di tim cac ddng minh khac tin cay ban. Co the noi day la that bai chien luge ldn trong chinh sach Trung Ddng ciia My. Ngay ca My ciing khdng tin vao sy thanh cdng ciia "Thda thuan the ky". Gan day, chinh dng D. Trump da tuyen bd ring Ngoai trudng Michael Pompeo cd the diing khi dng td nghi ngd ve kha nang thanh cong ciia ke hoach nay.
Chu nghTa khiing bd vdn Id moi de dga to l&n doi vai cdc nu&c
Td chuc Nha nudc Hoi giio (IS) mac dii da bj danh b ^ d Iraq va Syria, nhimg van chua bj tieu di?t hoin toan. Theo bao cao ciia Lau Nam Gdc, hi?n nay c6 khoang 14.000 18.000 chiln binh IS, trong do cd 3.000 ngudi nudc ngoai van cdn nim vimg d Syria va Iraq, chuake 10.000 tii binh IS hi?n dang bi giam giet trong cdc nha tu ciia cdc lyc lugng Dan chii Syria (SDF) ciia ngudi Kurd d mien ddng Syria cd the thoat ra bat cu liic nao.
Cac dan vj tryc thupc IS sau that bai d Iraq va Syria da nit vap boat dgng bi mat "nam ngii chd thdi" ho^c chuyen dia ban hoat dpng sang cac khu vyc khac d Bic Phi, chau A tham chi ca chau Au. Day la mdi de doa to ldn ddi vdi an ninh khdng nhiimg ciia Syria ma cdn ca toan bp khu vyc.
Phong trao "Mua Xuan Arab" tiep tuc lan r^ng
Tmh hinh bdt on tgi cdc nu&c Thdi gian gan day, mgt cugc khung hoang chinh tri trim trpng da xay ra tai
Algeria. Sudan, Lebanon va Iraq, khien cac qudc gia nay red vao tinh trang cang thang va h6n loan. Cac cugc bieu tinh ram rd vdi su tham gia ciia hang trieu ngudi d cac nudc nay da khiin ngudi ta lien tudng den phong trao
"Miia xuan Arab" biing nd tir nam 2010 den nay. Cac cugc bieu tinh phan ddi d cac qudc gia nay van chua cd trien vpng eham dut.
Tai Sudan, tir giiia thang 12 nam 2018, nhiiu cugc bieu tinh ldn ciia quan chung vdi sy tham gia cua hang tram nghin ngudi phan ddi tinh trang khimg hoang kinh tl, thieu hang hoa va gia ca leo thang van tiep tuc nd ra, bat dau bing khau hieu "khong dugc de dan ddi", va ngay sau dd la cac khau hieu chinh tri ddi lat dd chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Sudan Omar al-Bashir - ngudi da cam quyen dat nudc Sudan trong hom 30 nam qua.
Tai Algeria, ngay 16 thang 2 nam 2019, nhiiu cudc biiu tinh da nd ra tai Thii do Alger va cac thanh phd khac ciia Algeria thu hut hang trieu ngudi thugc cac ting ldp quin chung tham gia. Day la dgt bieu tinh ldn nhit trong lich su Algeria ke tir khi nudc nay gianh dugc dpc lap nam 1962, cQng nhu kl tir khi bimg nd phong trao Miia Xuan Arab nam 2010 din nay.
Tai Lebanon, ngay 17 thang 10 nam 2019 da no ra cac cupc biiu tinh vdi sy tham gia cua tir 1,5 trieu ngudi din 1,7 trieu ngudi tren toan qudc. Cudc biiu tmh nay dugc coi la ldn nhat rir tnrdc tdi nay. Din nay phong trao phan doi van khdng hi giam ma cdn thu hiit sy tham gia cua ddng dao cac ting ldp xa hdi.
Tai haq, tir diu thang 10 nam 2019 din nay, Iraq chiing kiln mpt lan sdng biiu tinh chdng chinh phu cua Thu tudng Abdul Mahdi. Day la dgt biiu tinh chdng chinh phu ldn nhat ke tir khi My tin cdng lat dd chinh
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAL PHI & TR- ^ * M/tn-i\ *I.A„„ m m n
Trung Pong nam 2019.. Nguyen Quang Khai
quyen cua Tdng thdng Saddam Hussein nam 2003 den nay vdi su tham gia ciia hang trieu ngudi tren toan quoc. Den nay da cd gan 400 ngudi bi thiet mang va hon 16 nghin ngudi bi thuang trong cac cudc dung do vdi canh sat.
Nguyin nhdn ldm bung nd cdc cugc bieu tinh phdn doi
Mac dil cac cudc bieu tinh biing nd dudi cac hinh thiic va cac tang ldp dan chiing tham gia khac nhau, nhumg deu xuat phat tir nhung nguyen nhan gidng nhau. Dd la tinh hinh khiing hoang kinh te - xa hgi tram trpng, ddi sdng ngudi dan kho khan, sy quan ly yeu kem ciia chinh phii va nan tham nhting tran lan dan den gia tang bat man trong dan chiing.
Tgi Sudan, tinh hinh cang thang dugc dy bao trudc tir lau khi hang hda d trong nudc vd cimg khan hiem, gia ca cac nhu yeu pham tang nhanh chdng mat; ddng Bang Sudan mat gia nghiem trpng, len tdi 80%; ty le lam phat piii ma vugt qua 30% mdi thang. Cac bien phap thit lung budc bung ciia Chinh phu Sudan thyc hien theo khuyen nghi ciia Quy Tiin te qudc tl (IMF) nhim pha gia dong tiin, bai bd trg gia liia my, dien, nudc va cac nhu yiu phim khac da lam cho ddi sdng cua ngudi dan ngay cang them chat vat. Nam 2018, ngan sdch qudc gia tham hut 2,5 ty USD da lam cho nen kinh t l Sudan vdn khd khan ngay cang trd nen kiet que. D I bii dap lai sy thieu hyt ngan sach, Chinh phii Sudan buoc phai tang cac loai thul danh vao ngudi dan va eham dut cac khoan trg cap.
Nan tham nhung la can benh tram kha cua dit nudc nay. Theo Td chirc minh bach qudc te (TT), Sudan xlp thiJ 170/180 qudc gia vl chi sd tham nhiing. Sudan hien van la mdt trong nhiing nudc ngheo nhat khu vuc chau Phi.
Algeria: Dan so chi cd 43 trieu ngudi, nhung la mgt trong nhung nudc giau nguon tai nguyen thien nhat the gidi vdi trir lugng diu md len tdi 12,2 ty thimg (xuat khau 632.000 thimg/ngay), tru tugng hoi dot 4,499 ty m3 (xuat khau 55 t)' m3). Trong khoang thdi gian tir nam 2000 den 2013, Algeria da thu dugc ban 1.000 ty USD tir xuat khau dau md va khi ddt. Vdi nguon tai nguyen phong phii va thu nhap Idn nhu vay, Algeria le ra phai la dat nudc CO mgt nen kinh te phat trien va ddi sdng ctia ngudi dan phai dat d muc cao. Tuy nhien, Algeria trong nhirng nam gan day lai roi vao khimg hoang, kho khan chua timg cd va ddi sdng cua ngudi dan bi giam siit nghiem trgng.
Hien nay cd khoang 30% thanh nien Algeria den do tudi lao ddng bi that nghiep.
Mat khac, nan tham nhiing tran lan da gop phan kim ham sy phat trien kinh tl ciia dat nudc, khien nen kinh te Algeria von da het sire khd khan ngay cang trd nen tram trgng hcm. Theo bao cao cua Td chirc minh bach qudc te (IT) ve chi so tham nhiing toin cau, nam 2017, Algeria xep thii 112/180 qudc gia cd nan tham nhung cao.
Lebanon: Qudc gia nay dang lam vao mdt cugc khiing hoang kinh te - xa hpi tram trgng va trd nen tdi te hcm bdi nan tham nhung tran lan trong chinh quyen. Ng cdng cua chinh phii ngay cang tang, Iam phat khdng kiem soat dugc. Gia ca, dac biet la cac hang hoa lien quan true tiep den ddi song hang ngay ciia ngudi dan deu tang manh nhu dien, nudc, banh mi, xang diu. Trong tinh hinh nhu vay, le ra can phai cd cac bien phap nham giam bdt khd khan cho ngudi dan thi chinh phii lai tim each tan thu de bu dip thiiu hyt ngan sach.
Viec chinh phu danh thue su dung cac cudc gpi Messenger va WhatsApp gan day chi la gigt nudc tran li. Nguyen nhan sau sa cua nd
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG so 01(173) thang 1/2020
Nguyen Quang Khai Trung €>6nq nam 2019-^
muon dung chieu bai kinh tc de lam lu md cac muc tieu chinh tri, hgp phap hoa sy chiem ddng ciia Israel doi vdi cac vimg lanh tho Palestine.
Chinh sach nay dang lam mat Idng tin ciia cac ddng minh cua My tai khu vyc va phai di tim cac dong minh khac tin cay ban. Co the ndi day la that bai chien luge ldn trong chinh sach Tnmg Ddng ciia My. Ngay ca My cung khdng tin vao su thanh cdng cua "Thoa thuan the ky". Gan day, chinh ong D. Trump da tuyen bd ring Ngoai trudng Michael Pompeo c6 the diing khi dng td nghi ngd ve kha nang thanh cong ciia ke hoach nay.
ChU nghTa khiing bd vdn Id moi de dga to l&n ddi v&i cdc nu&c
Td chuc Nha nudc Hdi giao (IS) mac du da bi danh b^i d Iraq va Syria, nhung van chua b| tieu di?t hoan toan. Theo bao cao cua Lau Nam Gdc, hi?n nay cd khoang 14.000 18.000 chiln binh IS, trong dd cd 3.000 ngudi nudc ngoai van cdn nim vimg d Syria va Iraq, chua ke 10.000 tu binh IS hien dang bi giam giii trong cac nha tii ciia cac lyc lugng Dan chii Syria (SDF) ciia ngudi Kurd d mien ddng Syria cd the thoat ra bat cu liic nao.
Cac dan vi true thudc IS sau that bai d Iraq va Syria da nit \ko boat dpng bi mat "nam ngii chd thdi" hoac chuyen dia ban boat dpng sang cac khu vyc khac d Bic Phi, chau A tham chi ca chau Au. Day la mdi de doa to ldn ddi vdi an ninh khdng nhumg cua Syria ma cdn ca toan bg khu vyc.
Phong trdo "Miia Xuan Arab" tiep tuc lan rgng
Tinh hinh bdt dn tgi cdc nu&c Thdi gian gan day, mpt cugc khiing hoang chinh tri tram trgng da xay ra tai
Algeria. Sudan, Lebanon va Iraq, khien cac quoc gia nay rai vao tinh trang cang thang va hon loan. Cac cupc bieu tinh ram rd vdi su tham gia ciia hang trieu ngudi d cac nudc nay da khien ngudi ta lien tudng den phong trao
"Miia xuan Arab" biing nd tir nam 2010 den nay. Cac cugc bieu tinh phan ddi d cac qudc gia nay van chua cd trien vgng eham dut.
Tai Sudan, tir giiia thang 12 nam 2018, nhieu cudc bieu tinh ldn ciia quan chiing vdi su tham gia cua hang tram nghin ngudi phan ddi tinh trang khiing hoang kinh te, thieu hang hoa va gia ca leo thang van tiep tuc nd ra, bit dau bang khau hieu "khdng dugc de dfin ddi", va ngay sau dd la cac khau hieu chinh tri ddi lat dd chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Sudan Omar al-Bashir - ngudi da cam quyen dat nudc Sudan trong hon 30 nam qua.
Tai Algeria, ngay 16 thang 2 nam 2019, nhieu cudc biiu tinh da nd ra tai Thu dd Alger va cac thanh phd khac ciia Algeria thu hiit hang trieu ngudi thudc cac ting ldp quin chiing tham gia. Day la dgt biiu tinh Idn nhit trong lich sii Algeria kl tir khi nudc nay gianh dugc dpc lap nam 1962, cung nhu kl tir khi bimg nd phong trao Miia Xuan Arab nam 2010 din nay.
T^ Lebanon, ngay 17 thang 10 nam 2019 da nd ra cac cudc biiu tinh vdi sy tham gia cua tir 1,5 Uieu ngudi din 1,7 trieu ngudi tren toan qudc. Cudc bieu tinh nay dugc coi la ldn nhat tir tnrdc tdi nay. Din nay phong trao phan ddi vin khong hi giam ma con thu hdt sy tham gia cua dong dao cac ting ldp xa hdi.
Tai h-aq, tir diu thang 10 nam 2019 din nay, Iraq chiing kiln mgt lan sdng biiu tinh chdng chinh phu cua Thii tudng Abdul Mahdi. Day la dgt biiu tinh chdng chinh phu ldn nhat ke tir khi My tin cdng lat dd chinh
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHi & T F " " ^ '•^ -ft n i / I -7^^ t\,&„„ 1 rtfittv
Trung Dong nam 2019.. Nguyen Quang Khai
quyen cua Tong thong Saddam Hussein nam 2003 den nay vdi sy tham gia cua hang trieu ngudi tren toan quoc. Den nay da cd gan 400 ngudi bi thiet mang va han 16 nghin ngudi bi thuong trong cac cugc dung dg vdi canh saL
Nguyen nhdn ldm bung nd cdc cugc bieu tinh phdn doi
Mac dil cac cudc bieu tinh bimg nd dudi cac hinh thu:c va cac tang ldp dan chiing tham gia khac nhau, nhung deu xuat phat tu nhimg nguyen nhan gidng nhau. Dd la tinh hinh khung hoang kinh tl - xa hgi trim trgng, ddi sdng ngudi dan khd khan, sy quan ly yeu kem ciia chinh phii va nan tham nhiing tran lan dan den gia tang bat man trong dan chiing.
Tgi Sudan, tinh hinh cang thing dugc dy bao trudc tir lau khi hang hda d trong nudc vd cimg khan hiem, gia ca cac nhu yeu pham tang nhanh chdng mat; ddng Bang Sudan mat gia nghiem trgng, len tdi 80%; ty Ie lam phat phi ma vugt qua 30% mdi thang. Cac bien phap thit lung budc byng cua Chinh phii Sudan thyc hien theo khuyen nghi ciia Quy Tiin te qu6c te (IMF) nham pha gia dong tien, bai bd trg gia lua my, dien, nudc va cac nhu yiu pham khac da lam cho ddi sdng cua ngudi dan ngay cang them chat vat. Nam 2018, ngan sach qu6c gia tham hyt 2,5 ty USD da lam cho nin kinh tl Sudan vdn khd khan ngay cang trd nen kiet que. Dl bii dap Iai sy thieu hut ngan sach, Chinh phu Sudan budc phai tang cac loai thul danh vao ngudi dan va chim dirt cac khoan trg cip.
Nan tham nhiing la can benh trim kha ciia dit nudc nay. Theo Td chiic minh bach qudc te (TI), Sudan xlp thu 170/180 qudc gia vl chi sd tham nhung. Sudan hien vin la mdt trong nhtrng nudc ngheo nhat khu vuc chau Phi.
Algeria: Dan sd chi co 43 trieu ngudi, nhung la mdt trong nhCmg nudc giau nguon tai nguyen thien nhat the gidi vdi trii lugng dau md len tdi 12,2 ty thimg (xuit khiu 632.000 thimg/ngay), trii lugng bed dot 4,499 ty m3 (xuat khau 55 ty m3). Trong khoang thdi gian tir nam 2000 den 2013, Algeria da thu dugc hon 1.000 ty USD tir xuat khau dau md va khi ddt. Vdi ngudn tai nguyen phong phu va thu nhap ldn nhu vay, Algeria le ra phai la dat nudc cd mgt nen kinh te phat trien va ddi sdng cua ngudi dan phai dat d miic cao. Tuy nhien, Algeria trong nhtmg nam gan day lai rai vao khung hoang, khd khan chua timg cd va ddi sdng cua ngudi dan bi giam siit nghiem trgng.
Hien nay cd khoang 30% thanh nien Algeria den do tudi lao dpng bi that nghiep.
Mat khac, nan tham nhung tran lan da gdp phan kim ham su phat trien kinh te ciia dat nudc, khien nen kinh te Algeria vdn da bet sue khd khan ngay cang trd nen tram trpng hcm. Theo bao cao ciia Td chiic minh bach qudc te (IT) ve chi sd tham nhiing toan cau, nam 2017, Algeria xep thir 112/180 qudc gia cd nan tham nhiing cao.
Lebanon: Qudc gia nay dang lam vao mgt cugc khung hoang kinh te - xa hdi tram trgng va trd nen tdi te ban bdi nan tham nhung tran lan trong chinh quyen. Ng cdng ciia chinh phu ngay cang tang, lam phat khong kiem soat dugc. Gia ca, dac biet la cac hang hoa lien quan tryc tiep den ddi sdng hang ngay ciia ngudi dan deu tang manh nhu dien, nudc, banh mi, xang dau. Trong tinh hinh nhu vay, le ra can phai cd cac bien phap nham giam bdt kho khan cho ngudi dan thi chinh phii lai tim each tan thu de bu dip thieu hut ngan sach.
Viec chinh phu danh thue sir dyng cac cudc ggi Messenger va WhatsApp gan day chi la gigt nudc tran li. Nguyen nhan sau sa cua no
Tap chi nghien ciiru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 01(173) thang 1/2020
Nguyen Quang Khai Trung Dona nam 2019..^
da tich tu trong nhieu nam nay. Dd la cac \ an dl kinh tl-xa hdi ciia Lebanon. Gan 40%
thanh nien Lebanon that nghiep, nan tham nhung tran lan, cac dich vu cong cdng rat kem. Them vao do, chinh phu lien tuc tang cac loai thue, danh vao tiii tien ciia ngudi dan.
Iraq: Da 17 nam ke tir khi My va phucmg Tay can thiep lat do che do cii, tinh hinh Iraq khong nhiing khong dugc cai thien ma ngay cang trd nen tdi te hon.
La mgt trong nhimg nudc giau co nhat the gidi, dan so chi cd 37,2 trieu ngudi, nhung Iraq co trii lugng dau mo len tdi 140,3 ty thimg, dung thu nam the gidi, san lugng khai thac diu d^l 4,45 trieu thimg/ngay, trong dd xuat khau han 3,6 tri?u thimg/ngay. Rieng xuit khau dau thd mdi ngay cilng da dem lai thu nh^p cho ngan sach tren dudi 220 trieu USD. Tdng thu nh^p quoc ngi GDP tinh theo sire mua tuang ducmg (PPP) dat 734 ty USD va GDP danh nghia dat 250 ty USD. Ngoai ra, Iraq cdn cd nhieu tai nguyen thien nhien khac nhu khi ddt, phdt phat, luu huynh, cha la...
Dit nudc giau cd nhu v^y, nhung tinh hinh kinh tl-xa hgi ludn luon d trong tinh trang khung hoang, cupc sdng cua ngudi dan hit sue khd khan. Theo Ngan hang thi gidi (WB), d Iraq ty 1? that nghi?p trong tang ldp thanh nien len tdi ban 40%, ban 60% dan so sdng d miic ngheo khd. Den nay, ngudi dan Iraq vin phai v^t Ipn vdi kho khan de sinh tdn.
N^n tham nhiing da cudp di mdt phan dang ke cua ngan sach nha nudc. Uy ban Liem chinh - ca quan chdng tham nhung cua chinh phli hi?n dang tien hanh dieu tra hon 5.000 vu tham nhiing, trong dd phan ldn la cac quan chiic cap cao trong Chinh phii. Hang nghin vu viec lien quan den cac bp trudng va quan chiic cip cao da bien thu cdng quy len tdi 600 ty
I S D tir 2003 din nay. T6 chiic minh bach qudc te (ITO) xep Iraq la mdt trong 12 nudc tham nhiing nhat the gidi.
Ngoai ra, viec thyc hien che dp da dang tai cac nudc nay trong khi tinh hinh chua chin mudi da dan den viec chinh quyen khdng kiem soat dugc. Ci Algeria, Sudan ciing nhu d Lebanon, Iraq cac dang phai va td chiic chinh tri, ke ca nhung to chiic cyc doan mgc len nhu nim. Rieng d Iraq va Algeria cd din hang tram dang phai va to chiic chinh tri khac nhau boat dgng, tranh gianh quyen lyc va lgi ich nhdm, gay bat dn va hon loan xa hgi.
TO-yiu cdu cdi thiin dai song ddn sinh din doi Idt do chinh phd
Cac cudc bieu tinh bit dau bang cac khau hieu ddi cai thien ddi sdng, dan dan chuySn sang ddi lat do chinh phu. Tdng thdng Algeria Abdelaziz Bouteflika sau 20 nam cim quyin, hien dang d tudi 83 va bi dm nang nhung van ra ling cii nhiem ky 5, dudi sdc ep cua phong trao bieu tinh da phai tir chiic dl tiin hanh biu cir tu do. Tdng thdng Sudan Omar Al-Bashir cam quyin 30 nam da bi bit do dgc tai va tham nhung. Toan bd ndi cac cua dng bi iat dd. Tuang ty nhu vay, Thu tudng Lebanon Saad Hariri va Thu tudng Iraq Adel Abdul Mahdi ciing da phai ra di.
Trung Ddng vdn la mdt khu vyc lgi ich dan xen va ncri tranh gianh Igi ich cua nhiiu nudc, dac biet la giira cac nudc ldn. Trong tinh hinh ngi bg My luc dye, Tdng thdng D. Trump dang dung trudc nguy co bi luan tdi va phi tmit. Cudc biu Cli Ting thdng d MS^ dang din gan. NATO chia re sau sic, chau Au bit dn sau Brexit, cugc chiln thuang mai My-Tning len dirih diem, bit ddng giua My va Lien minh chau Au, quan he My-Nga cang thing, khung hoang hat nhan han va vin dl Trilu Tien
Tgp chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & T * m n ^^\ thi„a i n m ^
Trung Dong nam 2019... Nguyen Quang Khai
chua cd chieu hudng hoa diu, cudc xung dot Israel di vao ngo cut, khiing hoang chinh phii tai Israel....va tat ca nhirng gi dien ra nam 2019 bao hieu Trung Ddng mgt nam mdi day sdng gid.
3. Tuyen bo hgp phap hoa cac khu dinh cu cua Israel d Bd Tay, Tong thOng Donald tiep tuc day giai phap cho cuoc xung dot Israel - Palestine dang di vao be tac
Ngay 18 thang 11 nam 2019 Ngoai trudng My Mike Pompeo tuyen bo: Chinh quyen Tdng thdng Donald Trump nhat tri rang viec xay dung cac khu dinh cu dan sy ciia Israel d Bd Tay, ve ban chat khdng phai la khdng phii hgp vdi luat phap qudc tl.
Thli tudng Israel Benjamin Netanyahu ngay lap tire tuyen bd, sy thay ddi quan diem ciia My coi c^c khu djnh cu Do Thai khdng phai la hanh dpng phi phap la mgt viec lam
"sua chira sai lam lich sii".
Tuyen bo cua Washington dugc dua ra trong bdi canh npi bd nudc My hit siic cang thing, Tdng thdng My D. Trump dang phai ddi mat vdi nguy co hi luan tpi va co kha nang hi phi truit. Chinh trudng Israel cijng dang trong tinh trang het siic be tic. Den nay, sau cugc biu cii lin hai, da qua ban chdt theo quy dinh cua Hiln phap, Thu tudng B. Netanyahu vin chua thanh lap dugc chinh phii, Tdng thdng Reuven Rivlin dang tinh kha nang giao cho Beny Gantz, thu ITnh dang "Xanh-Trang"
dang doi lap dirng ra thanh lap chinh phii mdi.
Day la lin diu tien trong lich su Israel da khdng thanh lap dugc chinh phu sau biu cu.
Trong tinh hinh phiic tap va cang thing nhu vay, tuyen bd cua chinh quyen My dugc coi la "mgt hdn da nem hai con chim". Thu nhit, nhim tranh thii sy iing hd ciia cac nhan vat Do Thai trong ndi bd chinh quyin My ddi
vdi Tong thdng D. Trump trong cupc khimg hoang vdi Qudc hdi. Thii hai, gop phan cCai van Thu tudng Israel B. Netanyahu khdi cudc khimg hoang chinh phii hien nay.
Trong qud khu Israel da tung trd lgi cdc khu dinh cu cho Ai Cap va Palestine
Bd Tay da bi lyc lugng Israel chiem ddng trong cudc chien tranh nam 1967. Trudc do, sau cudc chien tranh Arab - Israel nam 1947- 1949, Bd Tay nam dudi quyen kiem soat ciia Jordan.
Cac nghi quyet cua Hpi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc da nhieu lan coi viec xay dung cac khu dinh cu cua ngudi Israel tren dat Palestine la bat hgp phap va trai vdi Cdng udc Geneva nam 1949, nghiem cam dua ngudi Israel sang sinh sdng tai cac vimg dat bi chiem ddng.
Quan diem ciia cpng ddng quoc te, trong dd cd My tir trudc tdi nay la Nha nudc Palestine phai dugc thanh lap tren vimg lanh tho Bd Tay va Dai Gaza. Thang 12 nam 2016, Hpi ddng Bao an da tai khang dinh coi cac khu dinh cu cua Israel la bat hgp phap. My cung da bd phieu thuan cho nghi quyet nay.
Trudc day, Israel ciing da xay dyng cac khu dinh cu khu dinh cu tren cac lanh thd cua ban dao Sinai va Dai Gaza bj hg chiem dong trong chien tranh nam 1967. Tuy nhien, sau khi ky Hiep udc hda binh giiia Ai Cap va Israel nam 1979, Israel da tra lai cac khu dinh d Sinai cho Ai Cap va nam 2005, tra Iai cac khu dinh cu d Dai Gaza cho chinh quyen Palestine.
4. Tuyen bo cua My thien vi Israel, khong gdp phan giai quyet cupc xung dot Israel - Palestine
Tiip theo viec cdng nhan Jerusalem la Thii do cua Israel, chuyen Dai sii quan My ve
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 01(173) thing 1/2020
Nguyen Quang Khai Trung Dong ngm 2019-^
thanh phd nay, cong nhan cao nguyen Golan cua Syria bi chicm dong la mpt phan lanh tho Israel, viec chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng D.
Trump luyen bd hgp phap hoa cac khu dinh cu ciia Israel d Bd Ta\ ro rang la vi pham cac nghi quyet ciia Lien hgp qudc ve cudc xung dpt Israel - Palestine, di nguge lai chinh nghi quyet nam 1978 ciia Bg Ngoai giao My coi cac khu dinh cu cua Israel la "khong phii hgp vdi luat phap qudc te".
Tuyen bd nay ciing hoan toan trai vdi nhihig thoa thu^n da dat dugc giiJa Israel va Palestine nham giai quyet cugc xung dot, dac bi?t la Tuyen bo ve cac nguyen tic cua giai phap (Declaration of Principles DOP) cdn dugc ggi la Thoa thuan Oslo ky nam 1993 giQa Israel va To chuc Giai phdng Palestine (PLO). Tuyen bd nay cua My la sy coi thudng ngudi Arab, ngudi Palestine va cgng ddng quoc te dang cd ging tim ra mgt giai phap cdng bing va ben vOmg cho cupc ximg dgt, dap ling dugc lgi ich chinh dang ciia tit ca cac ben lien quan.
5. C$ng dong quoc te len an tuyen bo cua My
Cac nudc Arab, phuong Tay va Lien hgp qudc da len an quyet dinh ciia chinh quyen My tir bd Igp tnrdng trudc day khing dinh cac khu dinh cu ciia Israel d Bd Tay la bat hgp phap.
Thu ky Uy ban chap hanh PLO Saeb Erekat cho biet chinh quyen Palestine (PA)
"da bat dau mpt loat cac budc di chdng lai lap trudng gan day ciia My ve cac khu dinh cu, Crong dd cd viec trieu tap cudc hpp ciia Hdi ddng Bao an, Dai hpi ddng Lien Hgp Qudc, Tda an Hinh su Qudc tl va Hpi ddng Nhan quyen. Tdng thu ky Lien doan Arab Ahmed Aboul Gheit da len an va coi tuyen bd ciia My la "mpt sy phat trien rat tieu cyc, coi thudng
cac ngu} en tac phap ly da dugc ghi trong lual phap qudc te".
Bd Ngoai giao Ai Cap, Jordan, Qatar... deu tuyen bd cho rang cac khu dinh cu cua Israel la Uai vdi luat phap qudc te va viec Washington thay doi lap trudng la mdt hanh ddng "gilt chit giai phap" cho cupc xung dot Israel - Palestine.
Bao cao vien dac biet ciia Lien Hgp Qudc vl tinh hinh nhan quyen d cac viing lanh thd ciia Palestine, Michael Link da len an tuyen bd ciia My ve cac khu dinh cu, cho day la sy vi pham trang trgn su ddng thuan qudc te va se chi dan den hgp phap boa su chiem ddng ciia Israel.
Ngudi dung diu chinh sach ddi ngoai Lien minh chau Au (EU) Federica Mogherini tuyen bd, lap trudng cua EU la ro rang, khdng thay doi va khing dinh: mgi boat ddng djnh cu ciia Israel la bat hgp phap, gay nguy hiim cho kha nang ton tai cua giai phap hai nha nudc va trien vpng cho mdt nen hda binh lau dai. EU keu ggi Israel chim dirt cac boat dgng dinh cu.
Bd Ngoai giao Nga, Phap, Anh, Due, Thd NhT Ky... diu hiyen bo cho ring: Chinh sach dinh cu ciia Israel tai cac vung dit bi chiim dong la bit hgp phap, trai vdi luat phap qudc te va trai vdi cac nghi quyit cua Hgi ddng Bao an, ud ngai ddi vdi boa binh va de doa giai phap hai nha nudc.
Uy ban Chir thap dd qudc tl (ICRC), Td chiic Theo doi Nhan quyin (HRW) tuyen bd chinh sach dinh cu cua Israel mau thuin vdi cac quy dinh co ban ciia luat nhan dao qudc te, luat chiem ddng. Ngay ca img cii vien tdng thong My, Thugng nghi sT Bemie Sanders thudc dang Dan chu cung cho ring, cac khu
12 Tgp chi nghien cuu CH.AL PHI & T - -tti^Mr- „A nii-i-Ti\ *K4„
Trung Dong nSm 2019.. Nguyen Quang Khai
dinh cu ciia Israel la bit hgp phap. Ong noi:
mdt lan nira. Trump dang cd lap Washington bang cac quan diem cyc doan cua minh.
6. Tac dong tir tuyen bo ciia My Ddng thai mdi nhat nay cua Washington mdt lan niia lam mat di vai trd trung gian hoa giai ciia My, day giai phap cho cudc xung dot Israel - Palestine von da be tac cang trd nen be tac hcm. Tuyen bo ciia My cho thay su thien vi ro rang ciia My doi vdi Israel, chic chan se dan den gia tang cang thang giiia chinh quyen cua Tdng thdng Trump va ngudi Palestine, ciing nhu khoet sau sy chia re giiia My va cac ddng minh truyen thdng d chau Au.
Ngay sau tuyen bd cua Ngoai trudng M.
Pompeo, Su quan My tai Jerusalem da khuyen cao cdng dan My can nhac viec di tdi Jerusalem, khu Bd Tay hoSc Dai Gaza, ddng thdi gia tang nhan thiic ve tinh hinh an ninh tai cac khu vyc nay. Khuyen cao cua Sii quan My cho biet cac ca nhan va to chirc phan ddi tuyen bd ciia Ngoai trudng M. Pompeo cd the se cd cac hanh ddng nham vao cac eg quan chinh phli My, lgi ich hoac cdng dan My d khu vuc Tnmg Ddng.
Quan diim cua Tdng thSng My D. Trump vi cudc xung dgt Israel - Palestine
Quan dilm ciia Tdng thdng Trump ve cudc xung dot Israel - Palestine cd the nhan thay ro thdng qua nhimg hanh dpng sau:
Thang 2 nam 2017, mdt thang sau khi nham chirc, Tdng thong D.Tnimp tuyen bd sin sang lam trung gian hda giai nham tim ra mdt giai phap hoa binh gitia Israel va Palestine. Tuy nhien, ong nhan manh rang dng khdng img hd "giai phap hai nha nudc", trai vdi chinh sach ctia My tir trudc tdi nay.
Thang 5 nam 2017, Tong thong D. Trump den tham Israel va Lanh thd Palestine bj chiem dong.
Thang 12 nam 2017, D. Trump cong nhan Jerusalem la thii do vTnh vien, khong chia cat dugc ciia Israel.
Thang 8 nam 2018, My tuyen bo ngCmg tai trg cho Ca quan Cuu trg ciia Lien Hgp Qudc giiip ngudi ti nan Palestine (UNRWA) va xoa bo hon 200 trieu USD vien trg cho ngudi Palestine.
Thang 9 nam 2018, My tuyen bd ddng ciia van phong Ca quan ngoai giao Palestine d Washington.
Thang 3 nam 2019, My dong cira van phong Lanh sy quan cua minh tai Jerusalem (dugc coi la mgt phai doan ngoai giao ben canh chinh quyen Palestine) va sap nhap vdi dai sii quan My tai Jerusalem.
Thang 3 nam 2019, D. Trump tuyen bd cdng nhan chu quyen cua Israel doi vdi Cao nguyen Golan cua Syria bi Israel chiem ddng nam 1967.
Thang 5 nam 2019, Jared Kushner, con re va cd van cua Tdng thong D. Trump ve Tnmg Dong tuyen b6 'Thda thuan thi ky" cua My se khdng de cap den "giai phap hai nha nudc".
Thang 6 nam 2019, Dai sii My tai Israel, David Friedman khang dinh Israel co quyen sap nhap "cac bg phan" ciia Bd Tay bi chiem ddng. J. Kushner tiet Id khia canh kinh te ciia
"Thoa thuan the ky" cua My tai Bahrain.
Thang 11 nam 2019, Bd trudng Ngoai giao Mike Pompeo tuyen bd My khdng con coi cac khu dinh cu ciia Israel d Bd Tay bi chiem ddng la "khdng phii hgp vdi luat phap qudc tl".
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 01(173) thang 1/2020 13
