T H a C TIEN - KINH NGHIEM
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Nguyen Ngoc Binh *
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udc khiing hoang tai chinh qudc te thdi gian qua da lam cho nen kinh te Viet Nam gap nhiing khd khan nhat dinh. Chinh phii Viet Nam da de ra nhieu chinh sach, giai phap khac nhau nham iing pho vcii tac dgng tieu cue ciia khiing hoang, trong dd, chinh sach hd trg lai suat (HTLS) giiip cho td chiic, ea nhan vay vdn ngan hang de san xuat kinh doanh la mot chii truong quan trgng vdi muc tieu gdp phan ngan chan suy giam kinh te, duy tri tang trucing, bao dam an sinh xa hdi. Tir khi chinh sach HTLS dugc ban hanh den nay, da cd nhieu cdng viee dugc trien khai, nhieu ket qua dat dugc va ciing da phat sinh nhirng van de can dat ra do su bien doi cua tinh hinh mdi.1. KET QUA CUA CHINH SACH HTLS TREN DIA BAN THANH PHO H 6 CHJ MINH
Tinh den ngiiy 03/9/2009, dung cho vay HTLS ciia cac to chirc tin dung tren dia ban dat 79.689 ty ddng, chiem 19,93% so vdi du na HTLS ca nudc (399.739 ty dong)
va chiem 15,99%)/ td'ng du ng cho vay tren dia bim.
Viec thuc hien chinh saeh HTLS da mang lai mdt sd ket qua tich cue:
- Ddi vdi Chinh phii: Ngudi dan
* Ngan hang Nha nudc Chi nhanh - . thanh pho Ho Chl Ivlinh 40 I Top chi Ngdn hdng so 19 thdng 10-2009
THU'C T I E N KINH NGHIEM
tin tudng vao Chinh phii, nhd kip thdi thuc hien chinh sach kich cau, dua dat nudc thoat ra khoi kho khan trong thdi ky khiing hoang kinh te tren toan the gidi.
- Doi vdi kinh tc ciia TP Hd Chi iVIinh: Chuang trinh HTLS da gop phan kich thich kinh tc TP Ho Chi Minh phat trien. So vdi cuoi nam 2008, tiim thiing diiu nam 2009 kinh te thanh phd dat dugc mdt sd ket quii sau: (Biing 1)' '
- Ddi vdi td chuc tin dung cho vay HTLS: Co dieu kien tim kiem them khach hang mii van giam dugc ehi phi tiep thi, gia tiing du ng, ban che ng xau do khach hiing vay von cd dieu kien tni ncy tot hem.
- Ddi vcii khiich himg vay vdn HTLS: Da sd ciic doanh nghiep ducrc khiio sat, deu tang loi nhuiin, tiing doanh so boat dcing, giiim thieu sa thai cdng nhan, giam chi phi vay vdn, chi phi siin
xuat dan den gia thanh san pham giam, giiip cho khach hang vay von duy tri hoae md rong san xuat - kinh doanh; duy tri hoae tang sd lucmg lao ddng hien cd, dae biet ed nhirng don vi cdn tao them nhieu viec lam mdi.
(Bang 2)
- Ddi vdi ITnh \uc \a nganh kinh te: Chucmg trinh HTLS giiip cho boat ddng san xuat - kinh doanh phat trien, cac nganh, ITnh vuc thugc ddi tucmg HTLS hoae bi anh hudng tac ddng ciia khimg hoiing tai ehinh cd dieu kien vucrt qua khd khan, phat trien tdt hon so vdi cac nganh, ITnh vuc khdng dugc HTLS. Trong 8 thang diiu niim 2009 so vdi cudi nam 2008, cac nganh dugc HTLS deu cd tang trucing nhu nganh Det tiing 14,7%; May 4,7%; Thuang nghiep 23,5%;...
- Doi vdi nen kinh te: Chuong trinh kich cau ciia Chinh phii da kich thich cae doanh nghicip diiu tu phiit tricii, mcr rc)ng siin xuiit, gdp phiin vao duy tri va tiing trucing GDP; liim tang nhu cau ve lao dong trong dieu kien kinh te kho khan, gop phiin dn dinh kinh tc vT mo va an sinh xa hdi.
Bang 1:
Bang bieu mpt so chi tieu tang tru'dng cua TP.H6 Chi Minh Chltieu
- Gia tri s3n xuat cong nghiep -Tong v6n CflutiTxayduTig
Tang tri/dng so sanh vdi ngay 31/12/2008 11,4%
18,1%
- Tong mufc hang hoa ban 16 19,9%
Rieng (J6i yd'\ v§n de giai quy§t viec lam: Tinh ehung trong 8 thang dau nam 2009, toan Thanh ph6 da giai quy^t viec lam cho 194.400 lao dong, trong do s6 ch6 lam mdi du'dc tao ra \^
91.200 cho lam.
Top chi Ngdn hdng I so 19 Ihdng 10 20091 41
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THUC TIEN - KINH NGHIEMBang 2:
Ket qua khao sat cua Sacombank d6i v(3i 197 doanh nghiep tren dia ban TP.HCM cd dU nd HTLS Idn tai ddn vi khing dinh, chinh sach HTLS cua Chinh phu da cd tac dong tich CLfc, cu the:
+ 69% doanh nghiep cho rang, chinh sach HTLS da gdp phan giam bdt khd khan cho doanh nghiep, giup cho doanh nghiep giam di/dc chi phf, ha gia thanh san pham, tang kha nang canh tranh;
+ 64% doanh nghiep md rpng quy md kinh doanh;
+ 32% doanh nghiep tao viec lam va tang them ngi/di lao dpng.
2. NHUPNG VAN D E DAT RA VA D U BAO SAU K H I KET T H U G C H I N H SACH H 6 TRO LAI SUAT
Nhin ehung, hieu qua cua chinh sach HTLS da dugc the hien rd qua mdt sd ndi dung trinh bay d tren, tuy nhien phai nhin nhan thue te, viee thuc hien cac bien phap kich cau, chdng suy giam kinh te trong thdi gian qua, ehi la
"lieu thude" hd trg cho doanh nghiep vucrt qua khd khan, duy tri va phat trien san xuat. Cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam khdng nen coi dd la mdt "ciiu canh" eho toan bci boat ddng kinh doanh lau dai ciia minh.
Nhimg vdn de dgt ra:
- Can bang vT md ciia nen kinh te Viet Nam sau khi ket thiic gdi kich cau se dugc giai quyet nhu the nao: van de ve can ddi ngan sach; ve tham hut can can thuong mai, ve lam phat cd the gia tang,... Tat ea nhirng van de tren ed hay khdng se la thach thiie eho Chinh phu Viet Nam trong giai doan sau khiing hoang;
- Cd can them gdi giai phap kich thich tuong tu tiep theo
khdng? Viec HTLS cd lam cho doanh nghiep Viet Nam gap phai nhung tranh chap thuong mai (chdng ban pha gia, eanh tranh khdng binh dang) ciia eae tap doan, td chiic va doanh nghiep cac nude hay khdng?
- Khi ket thiic chinh sach HTLS (gdi ngan ban, dugc HTLS 08 thang va trung, dai ban 24 thang) thi cae don vi, ca nhan dugc vay vdn, phai trd ve vdi bach toan gia thanh theo lai suat thuong mai;
neu chil quan, khdng cd ke hoaeh ehuan bi tdt, cd the se lai rai vao tinh trang khd khan nhu trudc khi dugc HTLS, nhat la ddi vdi cae doanh nghiep cd 100% sd du vdn vay ngan han dugc HTLS. Van de nay neu ed xay ra thi nen giai quyet nhu the nao? Cd hay khdng su can thiep ciia Chinh phii?
Mpt so du bdo:
- Ddi vcii nen kinh te Viet Nam:
Sau khi chinh sach hd trg lai suat ket thiic, nguy ca lam phat tang cao la dieu cd the xay ra, dieu nay xuat phat tir nguyen nhan do viec tang chi tieu ciia Chinh phii, tang dau tu viio nen kinh te de duy tri
va phat trien kinh te trong thdi gian qua.
- Xuat, nhap khau va thj trudng ndi dia: Du bao boat ddng xuat, nhap khau Viet Nam cd the se dugc cai thien, song kim ngach xuat khau van chua the dat tdc do tang trudng manh nhu nhung nam trudc day. Trong khi dd, rao can bao hd mau dich gia tang lam cho xu hudng tieu thu hang hda tren thi trucing ndi dia tiep tue phat trien.
Khd khan ddi vcii doanh nghiep se tiep tue la van de thi trucing, tieu thu hang hoa. Van de dat ra eho doanh nghiep la lam sao de tieu thu dugc san pham, lam sao cd thi trucing, lam sao giam chi phi d miic thap nhat ma van dat dugc yeu cau de ra cho viec phat trien doanh nghiep. Day la bai toan lien quan den quan tri doanh nghiep trong dieu kien kinh te co nhieu bien ddng bat thudng. Tuy nhien, trong thcii gian gan day, da cd tin hieu cho thay nen kinh te the gidi da vucrt qua khiing hoang.
Dieu nay ciing la ca sd thuan Icrt de cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam co dieu kien gia tang giao dich quoc te, md rdng thi phan. De tan dung dugc "ca hdi" nay khdng phai doanh nghiep Viet Nam nao cting cd the thuc hien dugc.
Du bao trong thdi gian tcii viec phat trien thi trucmg: tiep can thi trucing ndi dia, tim kiem thi trucing mcii se la dieu cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam hucing tdi. Do dd, canh tranh ciia cae doanh nghiep Viet Nam d trong nudc eiing nhu d ngoai nudc se khoe liet hem sau giai doan khiing hoang cung nhu sau khi ket thiic chinh sach HTLS ciia Chinh phii.H
42 I Top chi Ngdn hdng so 19 thdng 10-2009
