QUAN HE DOI NGOAI
QUAN HE TRUNG QUtfC-AN BO
TiirSAU BAI Htl XIX BANG CDNG SAN TRUNG t u t c
• • •
NGUYEN XUAN TRUNG*
NGUYEN THI OANH**
Tom tit: D^i hoi XDC cua Dang Cpng san Trung Qu6c da vach ra mpt muc tieu dly tham vpng va mpt Ip trinh ro rang cho vi the ciia Trung Qu6c trong "thdi dai mdi" vai cac muc tieu chign lupc toan cSu va "giac ma Trung Quoc". Nhirng dieu chinh chien lupc va phuang thiic phat tri6n nay da tac dpng true ti6p d6n quan he Trung - An. Neu tnrdc Dai hpi XIX, quan h? Trung - An phat trien phvtc tap trong khuon kho 3Cs (hap tac, canh tranh vi xung dot), thi sau Dai hpi XIX mSi quan he v6n phiic tap nay cang phat triin theo nhiing chieu huong kho dinh doan, da chifiu va da dien hon trong khuon kh6 4Cs (xung d^t, canh tranh, hgp tac va ngan ch^n). Bai viit lam ro su biln dpng trong m6i quan he song phucmg Trung - An, tii m6i quan he "Im" vS kinh t^,
"lanh" vS chinh tri - an ninh (khuon kho 3Cs) sang xu hudng hep tac theo chilu hudng 6n dinh han, nhimg van trong khong khi cua "hoa binh Istnh" bai cac xung dot chinh tri van chua dupe giai quyet triet de (4Cs).
Tir khoa. Nude Idn, quan he Tnmg Quoc - An Dp, Dai hpi XIX DCS Trung Quoc
Mff dau mpt Trung Qudc quyet doan han, trdi Bao cao ciia Tap Can Binh tai Dai hdi day b a n va mpt Tap Can Binh quyin XIX da dat muc tieu day tham vpng, mpt luc manh va tap trung hon se gia tang dinh hudng va Ip trinh rd rang cho vi tbS nhirng thach thuc mdi cho An Dp bdi cua Trung Qudc d6n giira thS ky XXI. khu vuc lang giSng v l n la mpt npi dung Sau Dai hdi, Tap Can Binh trd thanh quan trpng trong chinh sach ddi ngoai
"'hat nhan Idnh dao" - lanh dao Trung cua Bac Kinh (SutirthoPatranobis, 2017).
Qudc quyen lyc nhat k l tir thdi Mao Hien nay, Trung Qudc la n i n kinh t6 Trach Ddng, vdi hira ben hien thuc hda cd muc GDP Idntbiihai th^ gidi, day chinh
"Giac m a Trung Qudc" mdi phuc
hung sue manh vT dai vdi Tu tudng chii * ^^^/ '^^- '^'^^ ^2**'™ ^^ ^ " **' ^^ '^^^
, ^ ^ , ,. .^ i • Nam A
nghia xa hoi dac sac Trung Quoc thai „ ^ p ^ . Dai hoc KHXH va Nhin van, Bai h,c dai mai. Nhieu quan diem cho r i n g , QuScgiaHaNoi
NGHIEN Clill TRUNG OUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
la ngudn lyc vimg chac de hien dai hda quan dpi. Trung Qudc da tang chi tieu qudc phong len 118% trong giai doan tir 2007 - 2016 va la qudc gia cd muc chi tieu quan su Idn nhat d chau A va chau Dai duong (Sudeep Kumar, 2017). Vay nhung dieu chinh, myc tieu nay tac ddng nhu the nao den Ipi ich chien luac va an ninh cua An Dp d cap dp quoc gia, khu vuc, toan cau ndi rieng va quan he Trung - An ndi chung.
1. ChiSn IiTffc cua Trung Quoc sau Dai hoi XIX va nhung anh hwtfng den quan he Trung - An
- Dinh hinh ro chiin luac todn cau vd
"Giac ma Trung Quoc "
Trung Quoc ludn cd tham vpng toan cau va da xay dyng chien lupc de dat duac tham vpng do. Chien luac toan cau cua Trung Qudc bat ngudn tir Chu tich Mao Trach Ddng vdi tuyen bd ve "sit minh lich su mai" cua quan dpi Trung Qudc la bao ve cac lai ich dang md rpng khap the gidi. Chu tich Tap Can Binh tien xa ban, theo dudi myc tieu cudng quan, trien khai dy dn BRI day tham vpng ket ndi Trung Qudc vdi Trung A, Nam A, Trung Ddng, chau Au va chau Phi de hien thuc hda "Giac ma Trung Quoc", phyc bung dan tdc Trung Hoa. Chien lupc toan cau dupe the hien thdng qua
"muc tieu ba giai doan": Giai doan 1 - Xa hdi kha gia toan dien nam 2021; giai doan 2 - trd thanh nude xa hpi chii nghia hien dai vao nam 2035; giai doan 3 - trd thanh nude phat trien toan dien vao nam
2049 - diing vao ky niem 100 nam thanh lap Cdng hda Nhan dan Trung Hoa.
Trong Bao cao chinh tri Dai hdi XIX, cum tu "todn edu" xuat hien 13 lan, ham y nhan manh den: (i) Vai trd cua Trung Qudc trong quan tri toan cau va thiet lap trat ty the gidi theo hudng cd lai cho Trung Qudc; (ii) Vai trd cua Trung Qudc trong phan cong kinh te qudc te, ddng gop cho an ninh sinh thdi toan cau; (iii) Thue day toan cau hda kinh te qudc te, ddng gop cho sy phdt trien toan cau, budc vao chudi gia tri trung, cao cap ciia toan cau, phat trien quan he ddi tac toan cau. Vdi muc tieu cudi cung la "khong quen tam nguyen ban dau, gbi nhd su menh, giucmg cao ngpn cd CNXH dac sac Trung Qudc, quyet thang trong xay dyng toan dien xa hdi kha gia, gianh thang Ipi vT dai CNXH dac sac Trung Qudc thdi dai mdi, phan dau khdng met mdi thuc hien Giac ma Trung Qudc, phuc hung vT dai dan tpc Trung Hoa"
(Chinamediaprojee, 2017).
- Ddy manh dieu chinh phuang thuc phdt triin
Tai Dai hpi XIX, Tap Can Binh cam ket xay dimg "dat nuac xa hoi ehu nghia hien dai" tren co sd "Tu tuang Tap Cg.n Binh vi chit nghia xd hoi dac sac Trung Quoc thai dai mai". Trong dd, cum tu
"thai dqi mai" duac sir dung 36 lan trong bao cao chinh tri cua dng (Elizabeth Roche, 2017). Trong phln dau bao cao, dng nhan manh.- "Trung Qudc gid da thuc sy viing manh ve kinh te va chinh tri, dii siic de tien den mdt vi tri
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019 29
N G U Y £ N XUAN T R U N G - NGUVeN TH! OANH
xiing dang trong trat tu the gidi... "Phyc hung dan tpc" dupe hieu la khdi phuc vi tri trung tam ciia Trung Qudc tren chinh trudng toan cau, nhung vdi tu each la mdt cudng qudc kieu mdi - vua theo chu nghia toan cau vira theo chu nghia ban dia bai ngoai... Da den luc chiing ta phai gianh lay vi tri trung tam ciia the gidi va ddng gop nhieu ban cho nhan loai"
(Rebecca Liao, 2017). DiSu dd cho thiy, vi?c dua Trung Qudc vao vi the trung tam trong cac van de quoc te la muc tieu Idn trong chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia Tap Can Binh sau Dai hdi XIX.
vi kinh te, Tap Can Binh nhan manh se tang cudng tiep can thi trudng dau tu nude ngoai, md rpng ITnh vyc dich vu, tang cudng cai each theo dinh hudng thi trudng ve ty gia va he tbdng tai chinh, ddng thdi tang cudng vai trd cua cac cdng ty qudc doanh, gan bd vdi the gidi va cam ket giai quyet bien ddi khi bau, ling hp ty do thuong mai toan cau.
Vi chinh sdch doi ngoai, bao cao cua Tap Can Binh cung da giri mot tbdng diep quan trpng ra the gidi, trong dd cd nhimg diem tich eye ddi vdi quan he Trung - An. Tap Can Binh khang dinh sy can thiet ciia toan cau hda, bao dam sy dn dinh va hda binh tren the gidi nhu mdt dieu kien tien quyet cho sy phat trien cua tat ca cac qudc gia. Va ngay ca khi Trung Qudc "tien gan ban den tnmg tam cua vii dai the gidi", Bac Kinh "se tiep tuc ddng vai trd nhu mdt qudc gia Idn vd cd trach nhiem", dng phu nhan ve "chmh tri cucmg quyen" va "chien tranh lanh"
trong su cbia re Xhk gidi hien nay thanh cac khdi ddi diu va cac qudc gia nen nhin manh din quan he ddi tac, chu khdng phai lien minh, tat ca cac van de giiia cac qudc gia nen dupe giai quy6t thong qua ddi thoai thay vi ddi dau",
"xay dyng cdng ddng chung van menh nhan loai"; cac nguyen tac binh dang va dan chu trong quan he qudc te. Mat khac, Bao cao cua dng d^ cap den each tiep can van minh ddi vdi tuang lai cua nhan loai,
"chiing ta nen tdn trpng sy da dang cua cac n6n van minh" (Chinaindiadialogue, 2017). Nhung dinh hudng chien lupc nay phu hop vdi mong mudn cua An Dp, bdi An Dp Cling dang tim kiem mdi quan he hpp tac binh dang vdi Trung Quoc Nhiing dieu nay ciing duoc cac chinh tri gia va ngudi An Dp nhin nhan mpt each tich eye bdi An Dp va Trung Qudc la hai nen van minh chau A c6 dai.
Ve cdch thuc trien khai chinh sdch doi ngoai, sau Dai hpi XIX, vS co ban, Trung Qudc van tiep tuc cac sang kien chien lupc toan cau, dien hinh la BRI vdi mpt chinh sach ddi ngoai "da tang nac" va "da hudng" hem. Trong dd, "thu hiit vdo"
(bringing-in) va "di ra ngoai" (going-out) dupe xem la ndi dung quan trpng cua chinh sach ddi ngoai nay (Xie Tao, 2017). Cu thi, "thu hiit vdo" lien quan den keu gpi dau tu va td chiic cac hdi nghi thuang dinh, sy kien Idn d Bac Kinh, con "di ra ngodC lien quan den cac chuyen tham nude ngoai ciia cac lanh dao cap cao nham ky ket cac tbda thuan thuang mai, chuong trinh bpfp tac va thiic
30 NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
day dau tu ra nude ngoai. Chinh sach ddi ngoai nay ket hap vdi chi^n lupc "thu hut vdo " va "di ra ngoai" dang duoc theo dudi trong bdn de xuat chinh sach ngoai giao:
"Quan hi nuac lan kiiu mai", "ngoai giao ntrac lan dac sac Trung Qudc",
"cQng dong ciing chung van minh" vd
"quan hi quoc te kieu m&i".
Nhu vay, sau Dai hdi XIX, chiSn luae
"thai dqi mai" ("new era" strategy) cua Tap Can Binh tiep tuc dupe day manh vdi tham vpng chinh la d khu vyc chau A
Thai Binh Duang, khdng chi &k tang cudng anh hudng ma con de "ki6m chiing" sy suy giam anh hudng ciia My d khu vyc nay thdng qua nd lyc dan din thay ddi hi$n trang ciia khu vyc. Theo dd, tang cudng cac Ipi ich hang hai, thiic diy cac mdi quan he an ninh song phuong va da phucmg manh me ban, cae tbda thuan va hpp tac kinh te tdt ban tbdng qua cae hiep dinh thuang mai tu do (FTA) va tap trung vao hpi nhap va ket ndi kinh te khu vyc la nhiing dac diem chinh cua chien lupc chau A - Thai Binh Duong cua Trung Qudc.
- Trung Quoc dieu chinh chinh sach vdi cac nude lang gieng
Trong chinh sach ngoai giao, cac nude lang gieng ludn duac xem uu tien hang dau bdi so vdi cac cudng qudc khac, Trung Qudc la nude cd sd luong cac qudc gia lang gieng Idn nhat, vdi 14 qudc gia cbia se bien gidi tren dat lien va 8 qudc gia cd bien gidi tren bien. Khdng cd nude Idn nao hien nay cd mdi trudng dia chinh tri nhu Trung Qudc.
NGHIEN CAU TRUNG QUtfC so 1 (209) - 2019
Theo Bdo cao chinh tri cua Tap Can Binh tai Dai hpi XIX, muc tieu va chien lupc ngoai giao cua nude nay la thuc day toan dien ngoai giao nude Idn dac sac Tnmg Qudc, binh thanh bd cue ngoai giao toan phuang vi, da tang nac, da chieu, tao mdi trudng ben ngoai tich cue cho sy phat trien cua Trung Qudc, thuc day xay dyng quan he qudc te kieu mdi, xay dung cdng ddng chung van menh...
(Chinamediaproject, 2017). Trong dd, ngoai giao lang gieng tiep tuc dupe xem la bat nhan. Neu d Dai hpi XVIII, quan diem "lang gieng yin on", "Idng gieng hda thuan " vd "lang gieng gidu manh "
dupe xem la tu tudng cot loi trong ngoai giao lang gieng, thi den Dai bdi XIX, Tap Can Binh da nang cac khai niem nay thanh mpt khai niem bao tnim ban, dd la
"cong dong chung van minh chau A ", lam sau sac quan be vdi cac nude lang gieng theo quan diem "than, thdnh, hue, dung" vdi phuang cham "than thien vai Idng giing, Idm doi tdc vai lang gieng"... (Chinamediaproject, 2017).
Theo td Nhan dan Nhat bdo cua Trung Quoc ngay 15/11/2017, sau Dai hpi XIX, hop tdc kinh ti tra thdnh trong tdm ciia ngoqi giao lang giing cua Trung Quoc.
Viec dat uu tien kinh te cua Trung Quoc du kien se md ra nhieu co hdi phat triin kinh te cho cac nude lang gieng, trong dd cd An Dp. Khdc vdi phuang Tay, dien hinh la My, EU ludn diing bien phap trimg phat kinh te khi cd cang thSng, xung dot chinh tri va ngoai giao, Trung Qude de cao giai phap nay trong quan he , 3 1
NGUYEN XUAN TRUNG - NGUYEN THj OANH
vdi cae nude lang gieng. Tham chi khi cang thang vdi mot sd nude Ddng Nam A
\h van dh Biin Ddng, Bien Hoa Ddng hay dung dp vdi An Dp d bien gidi, Tnmg Qudc cung khdng lya chpn trimg phat kinh te vdi eac nude nay. Nhu vay, trong quan he vdi cac nude lang gieng, Trung Qudc mdt mat gay siic ep va khdng nhupng bp trong cac van de lanh tbd nhung vln tang cudng quan he tbdng qua hap tac kinh t6, tai chinh va thuang mai.
Trong quan diim cua Trung Qude, An Dp vira la nude Idn, vira la quoc gia lang giing nen Trung Qudc se tich eye va chu ddng lam sau sac moi quan he song phuang vdi An Dp thong qua tang cudng bpfp tac vi chinh dang, qudc hpi, doan thi, dia phuang, nhan van... vdi ITnh vuc trpng tam la thiic day hpp tac kinh te, thuong mai, dau tu. Ve van de bien gidi, phia Trung Qudc se cd gang lay ddi thoai di giai quyit tranh chap, lay hiep thuang di hda giai mau thuan.
2. Quan he Trung Quoc - An Do sau Dai hoi XIX
Theo quan diem cua mdt sd hpc gia phuang Tay va An Dp, neu trude Dai bdi XIX, quan he Tnmg - An phat triin phuc tap trong khuon khd 3Cs (hpp tac, canh tranh va xung dot) (Herbert Wulf, 2014), thi sau Dai hdi XIX mdi quan he von phiic tap nay cang phat trien theo nhiing chieu hudng khd dinh doan va da chieu han trong khuon kho 4Cs: xung dot (conflict), canh tranh (competition), hap
321
tdc (cooperation) va ngan chan (containment) (Manoj Joshi, 2018). Sau day chung toi se phan tich quan he Trung Qudc - An Dp theo khudn khd 4Cs.
2.1. Xung dot
Khia canh xung dot duoc the hien d cac van di nhu: Tranh chap bien gidi, sy mat can bang trong thucmg mai song phuang, vin di Tay Tang, xay dap chan sdng Brahmaputra, sang kiin BRJ (hanh lang CPEC); lien minh chiin lupc Pakistan Tnmg Qude; anh hudng ciia Bic Kinh ddi vdi cac td chiic qudc ti nhu Lien hpp qudc va cac the chi da phuang mdi do Trung Qudc thanh lap nhu AIIB, tao CO hpi cho BSc Kinh can trd cac Ipi ich, muc tieu va tiing ndi cua An Dp tren cac di§n dan da phuang trong cae van de toan eiu. Ngoai ra, Bac BCinh da chdng lai nhiing nd lyc cua An Dp de dua nhom khimg bd Jaish-e-Muhammed, Maulana Masood Azhar cd try sd tai Pakistan vao danh sach nhiing td chiic kbiing bd cua Lien hop qudc. Day la nhiing khia canh xung dot cd tit trude Dai hdi XIX va sau Dai bdi XIX, nhiing khia canh xung dot nay van tiep dien va cd nhiing dien bien mdi.
Van de bien giai giira hai nuac dang phdt triin theo chieu huang "hoa binh Iqnh" Yiu td xung dot giiia hai nude hien nay tiip tuc gan lien vdi xung dot bien gioi va mdi quan be eiia Trung Quoc vdi Pakistan. Tay Tang va Kashmir tiip bac lam phiic tap van di gidi quyet tranh chip lanh tbd giiia hai nuoc. Nhiing
NGHIEN CQU TRUNG QUd'C so 1 (209) - 2019
thach thiic ve van de bien gidi giiia hai nude khdng chi d khia canh song phuong ma con lien quan den nude thu ba Pakistan, Nepal va Bhutan - tren bien gidi phia Bac. Tuy nhien, tir sau Dai bdi XIX vdi phuang eham cua Tnmg Qudc trong van de bien gidi vdi An Dp la can bang cac mdi quan he hda binh vdi eac lai ich cot loi, van de bien gidi giiia hai nude dang cd chieu hudng phat trien tich cue.
Trong nhiem ky dau tien cua Tap Can Binh, dam phan bien gidi khdng cd bat cii tien bp nao lien quan den vdng dam phan Dai dien dae biet (Special Representative Talks) giiia bai nude. Sau Dai hpi XIX, Trung Qudc da khang dinh '"cam kit gidi quyet cdc tranh chap khde biet thong qua doi thoai"
(Chinamediaproject, 2017). Khai niem quan he nude Idn kieu radi cua Tnmg Qudc, khdng chi hudng den My hay Nga ma con ca An Dp. Chu tich Tap Can Binh ciing da nhiiu lan nhan manh, Tning Qudc cin tranh rai vao "bay Thucydides" khong chi ddi vdi My, ma eon cd vdi An Dp. Do dd, qua sy cd d Doklam, cd t h i thiy, Trung Qudc se no lyc k i i m c h i va sir dung eac bien phap phi chiin tranh vdi nude Idn nhu An Dp.
Day chinh la mpt bieu hien cua "quan he nuac lan kieu mai" cua Trung Qude vdi An Dp.
Sy chuyin bien tich cue trong van de bien gidi t h i hien d nd lyc cua hai ben sau sy kien Doklam thdng qua cac hoat dpng ngoai giao da dien. Sau Hpi nghi thuang dinh BRICs tai Ha Mdn (thang NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019 —
9/2017) va cupc hpp cua Bd trudng Ngoai giao RIC (Nga, An Dp, Trung Qudc) tai New Delhi (thang 12/2017), dpc bien gidi Trung - An da trd nen yen binh hon. Thang 12/2017, Cd v i n An ninh qudc gia An Dp, Ajit Doval va Uy vien Qude vy dac trach ngoai giao Duong Khiet Tri da ket thiie vdng dam phan Dai dien dae biet lan thii 20 ve van de bien gidi Trung - An. Phia Trung Qudc tuyen bd "co che nay khdng chi la mot kenh ddi thoai cap cao ve cac van de bien gidi giiia hai ben ma eon la nen tang quan trpng cho ket ndi chien luac giua Trung Qude va An D p . . . Hai ben nhat tri, trong thdi gian chd hudng giai quyet cudi ciing, can duy tri hda binh d khu vuc bien gidi"
(Sana Hashmi, 2018). Trong cupc hpp bao ben le ky hpp Qudc hdi Trung Qudc (ngay 8/3/2018), Ngoai trudng Vuong Nghi phat bieu: "Du cd nhiing khd khan, thach thiic nhat dinh, quan be Trung - An v i n tiip hjc phat trien... Con rong Trung Qudc va con voi An Dp khdng nen dau da ma cd the nhay miia vdi nhau"
(Xinhua, 2 0 1 8 / Dieu nay cho thay, mdi quan he cua hai ga khdng Id chau A tir cudi nam 2017 den nay dang tung budc thodt khdi be tac sau su kien Doklam, dy bao nhiing budc phat trien tich eye trong quan he song phuong.
Vi vay, mac du trong van kien Dai hdi XIX, Trung Qudc tuyen bd khdng cd bat ky nhuang bp nao ve cac van de lien quan den bien gidi, an ninh qudc gia va
"quyet khong tie bo quyin lai chinh ddng cua minh ", nhung Trung Qudc dudi thdi
^ J
NGUYEN XUAN TRUNG - NGUYEN THj OANH
Tap Can Binh ciing de cap den quan diem dung "minh triit phuang Dong"
(Oriental wisdom) de giai quyit tranh chip bien gidi. Den nay, Trung Qudc chua dua ra quan diem, y nghia ciia
"minh triet phuang Dong", nhung de xuat ciia Trung Qudc ve ea ban dupe ngam hieu la tim ra giai phap "ehinh tri"
trong pham vi "Panehsheel" Nam nguyen tac chung sdng hda binh - nen tang quan trpng de Trung Qudc va An Dp tham chieu trong giai quyet cac tranh chap bien gidi (Cbinadaily, 2014). Giai phap "chinh tri" la giai phap tdi uu bdi ea An Dp vd Tnmg Qudc deu nhan thiic duoc rang, ea hai ben se la nhiing ngudi thua cupc neu cd xung dot bien gidi xay ra. Nhu vay, sy kien Doklam cho thay xung dot giiia hai cudng qudc hat nhan cd the khdng leo thang thanh mdt cupc giao tranh quan sy nhung nd ciing ham y rang "chien tranh Iqnh", "hoa binh lanh" van bien dien trong quan he hai nude.
BRI tiip tuc Id "mdng toi" trong buc tranh quan hi Trung - An. Ddi vdi BRI, mac du, Trung Qudc ludn md rpng canh ciia va no lyc "keo" An Dp tham gia, nhung An Dp van giii quan diem bat hop tac, tham chi phan ddi sang kiin nay.
Mac dii, Trung Qudc tuyen bd tim nhin eiia BRI la "nguyen tac ciing ton tai hda binh, ton trong chu quyen lan nhau",
"hop tdc cung thdng" giiia eac qude gia nhung dudng nhu khdng tao duac niim tin cho New Delhi, bdi thyc ti cho thiy nhiing hanh dpng cua Trung Qudc trong
xung dot 73 ngay d cao nguyen Doklam (thdng qua Chiin thuat "Idt cat salami"
va don phuong cd nhiing hanh ddng nham thu Ipi cho rieng minh va sau do la chien luge "tam chiing chien phdp"
(chiin tranh tam ly, chiin tranh truySn thdng va chien tranh phdp ly" (Lindsay Hughes, 2017) va mdt phin CPEC di qua Kashmir - khu vuc tranh chap giua An Dp va Pakistan - hoan toan di ngupc lai nhimg luan diem tren. Thdng cao chinh thire cua Bd Ngoai giao An Dp ngay 13/5/2017 viit: "Chung tdi cho rang, cdc sang kien ket ndi phai dya tren cac thong le quoc te dupe thira nhan rpng rai, quan tri tdt, tdn trpng phap quyen, cdi md, minh bach va binh dang... Cae dy an ket ndi phai dupe thuc tbi tren co sd ton trpng chu quyen va toan ven lanh thd".
Thu tudng Modi ciing nhan manh: "Ket ndi, ban than nd khdng the phii nhan hoac lam suy giam ehu quyen ciia cae qudc gia khac (Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, 2018). Mat khac brong khudn khd BRI, de eiing cd ly thuyet chudi dao ciia minh, Tnmg Qudc dang dang dau tu Idn d An Dp Duang, dien hinh la d Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives. Ddi vdi An Dp, day la cac boat dpng mang tinh bao vay, kiim tda An Dp. Vdi sy ra ddi cua chiin lupc "An Do Duang - Thdi Binh Duong: tu do vd ma"
cua Tdng thdng Trump, mac dii chua co cac tuyen bd chinh thiic nhung An Dp da ed xu hudng "ngd" sang nhdm eac nude dan chu, hudng den bd tii My - An - Nhat - Australia, tao the ddi trpng vdi Trung
- NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
Qudc. Dieu nay chac chan se la trd ngai cho quan he Trung - An.
Neu nhiem ky diu tien eiia Tap Can Binh tir nam 2013 - 2018 dupe coi la giai doan "khai xuong " (promotion) eua BRI, thi sau Dai hpi XIX, tiic nhiem ky thii 2 ciia dng (2018 -2023) dugc xem la giai doan "trien khai/thue thi" (execution), vdi viec Bac Kinh thiic day mdt loat eac dy an va giao dich thuang mai vdi hang loat cac qudc gia d chau A va tren the gidi. Dieu d6 cd nghia, trong nhung nam tdi chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia Trung Qudc se xoay quanh trpng tam la BRI. Dieu nay se la thach thirc vdi An Dp ciing nhu quan he, anh hudng cua An Dp vdi cac nude lang giSng Nam A, tham chi la d khu vuc chau A.
2.2. Canh tranh
Yiu td canh tranh the hien d nhieu khia canh. Thit nhdt, mac du ve khia canh kinh ti. An Dp khdng phai la ddi thu
"ndng ky" ciia Trung Qudc, nhung d khia canh chinh tri. New Delhi van duy tri su hien dien, anh hudng manh me d khu vuc bien gidi ciia ea An Dp va Trung Qudc, dac biet la d Nam A. Thie hai, canh tranh trong quan diem giira hai nude ve tu each thanh vien cua An Dp tai Hdi ddng Bao an Lien hgp qudc, Nhdm cac nude cung cap hat nhan, su ehia se cac lai ich toan cau, ty do hang bai, tdn trpng phap luat qudc te va each tiep can de ling phd vdi chu nghia khiing bd. Thii: ba, su tang tnrdng kinh te nhanh cua bai ddi thu d chau A va sy ddi lap ve be thdng quan
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUdC so 1 (209) - 2019 —
tri - trong khi quyen luc chinh tri d Trung Qudc ngay cang tap trung thi d chieu nguge lai An Dp ngay cang md rpng va khang dinh cac gia tri dan chu. Thu tu, la canh tranh anb hudng chien lupc d cae dia ban, khu vyc cd Ipi ich cua hai nude.
Canh tranh chien lupc d Nam A, quyen lye khu vyc cua An Dp da phan nao bi suy yeu bdi sy tham gia kinh te ngay cang tang eua Trung Qude vdi cdc nude lang gieng cua An Dp la Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan va Sri Lanka.
Canh tranh anh hudng d An Dp Duang - khu vuc vdn dugc xem Id viing anh hudng truyen thdng, "sdn sau chiin luac", "miin hap phdp" (rightful domain) va "van menh hiin nhiin" ciia An Dp" (Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2003). O dia ban canh tranh nay, mac dii An Dp cd Ipi the hon Trung Qudc do nam d vi tri chien luge d An Dp Duong eiing nhu cac SLOC quan trpng gdm ca "con duang ta lua trin bien " eiia Trung Qude nhung d chieu nguge lai, Trung Qudc cd Ipi the ve mat kinh te tbdng qua cac khoan vien trg, dau tu va nhiing don bay khac vdi cac qudc dao d day (N.T.Oanb, 2016). Hien nay "con duang ta lua trin bien " la "mieu ki con ngua thdnh Troy" (am chi hanh ddng nghi binh) de banh trudng vi the dia chinh tri ciia Trung Qudc d An Dp Duong" (Thdng tan xa, 2015) tbdng qua diy manh hien dien va phat trien cac tuyen van tai bien, hanh lang nang lugng xuyen lyc dia thdng qua Trung A, dupe
^
NGUYiN XUAN TRUNG - NGUYEN TH! OANH
cac nha phan tich My gpi la "Chudi ngoc trai" ciia Trung Qudc. De doi trpng, canh tranh vdi Trung Qudc, An Dp ciing dang de cap den mpt ke hoach mang ten "chiic vdng cd kim cuang" (necklace of diamonds) (Dalbir Ahlawat, 2012) vdi cae can cii d ndi dia nhu Kochi, Karwar, Mumbai, Visbakhapatnam va vdi cac qudc dao d An Dp Duang - Lakshadweep, quan dao Andaman va quan dao Nieobar, quan he ddi tac vdi Seychelles, Mauritius, Madagascar vd Oman nhu mpt gpng kim ddi vdi Trung Qude.
Ben canh khu vyc Nam A va An Dd Duong, canh tranh chien lupc giiia Trung Qudc va An Dp edn the hien d cac dia ban khac nhu nhu Ddng Nam A, Trung A, chau Phi, My Latinh. d nhirng dia ban nay, Trung Qudc cd uu the vugt trdi so vdi An Dp bdi siic manh kinh ti, va mac dii la nude di sau nhung An Dp van kien tri canh tranh. 6 eac khu vyc nay, trong khi ddi vdi Trung Qudc la nhiing budc di ebien lupc day toan tinh (dien binh la thdng qua BRI), thi An Dp ehu yiu la nhiing phan img mang tinh chiin thuat.
2.3. Hop tdc
Khia canh hap tdc giiia hai nude the hien a cdc dien ddn song phuong vd da phuang, dae biet la nhimg budc tiin quan trong trong hap tdc kinh ti. Trung Qudc va An Dp hgp tac tai eac diin dan nhu BRICs, AIIB, Ngan hang phat tt-iin radi (NDB), WTO, vin di biin ddi khi hau, gin day nhit, ngay 11/12/2017, An Dp da gia nhap Td ehiic hop tac Thugng Hai (SCO).
Khia canh hop tac con thi hien d quan be ngoai giao. Thang 12/2017, Bd trudng Ngoai giao Trung Quoc Vuong Nghi va Uy vien Qude vy Duong Khiet Tri da den tham An Dp. Dac biet, vao thang 4/2018, Thu tudng Modi va Chu tich Tap Can Binh da cd cupc gap tai Hpi nghi Thupng dinh khdng ehinh thire d Vii Han. Day la sy kien mang tinh budc ngoat bdi day la lan dau tien mpt lanh dao An Dp cd hpi nghi thugng dinh khdng chinh thiic vdi lanh dao cua mdt qudc gia. Trong cupc gap, Thu tudng Modi phat bieu "chau A va the gidi se cd mpt tuong lai tdt dep hem khi An Dp va Trung Qude cung nhau tin tudng, cd Idng tin, cam thdng ddi vdi Ipi ich cua ddi phuang" (Sana Hashmi, 2018). Day la bang chiing cho thiy An Dp mong mudn eai thien quan he vdi Trung Quoc. Bdi trude khi diin ra cupc gap nay, phia An Dp da ed nhieu chuyen tham chinh thiic den Trung Qudc, cy thi la chuyen tham cua Ngoai trudng Vijay Gokhale (tbdng 2/2018) va C6 vin An ninh qudc gia Ajit Doval (thang 4/2018).
Tuy nhien thuc ti cho thiy, Trung Qudc can An Do cUng nhieu nhu An Do can Trung Qudc. Trong khi Doklam dai di?n cho mpt diem tbdp trong mdi quan he, sy kien d Vu Han la mpt nd lyc di sira chiia nhung "loi nhip " trong quan he hai nude.
Trong cupc hpp. Tap Can Binh cho ring Trung Qudc va An Dp la "xuang sdng"
cua sy da eye hda toan eau va toan ciu hda kinh te, la bai dpng luc quan trpng cua tang tnrdng kinh te the gidi, hai nude nen cung nhau ddng gdp vao hda binh va
36 1 NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
phat trien toan ciu. "Trung Qude vd An Do nin la nhimg nguai hang xdm vd ban be tdt vd nin xem nhau la ddi tdc phdt triin" (ndtv, 2018). Tir quan diim cd dii khdng gian cho ca hai nude cimg tdn tai va thinh vugng, Dai sii An Dp tai Trung Qude ciing cho rang "cdc nuac lan ed the Cling tdn tqi mdt cdch hda binh bdt chap nhung khac biet trong he thdng" (Sana Hashmi, 2018).
Hgp tdc eiia hai nude cUng dugc thi hien qua tuyen bd tdng cuang hgp tdc a cdc ca chi song phuang vd da phuang. O dien dan da phuang, phat bieu cua Thu tudng Modi tai Ddi thoai Shangri-La (tbdng 6/2018) cho thay sy coi trpng eua An Dp trong quan he vdi Trung Qudc:
"Khdng cd mdi quan he ndo ciia An Do ed nhieu tdng nac nhu mdi quan hi vai Trung Qudc... Hgp tdc giiea hai nude dang md rong, thucmg mai dang tdng trudng... Chau A vd the giai se cd mot tuang lai tdt dep han khi An Do vd Trung Qudc lam viec cung nhau trong niim tin vd su tin cay, cdm thdng vdi Igi ich cua nhau" (mea.gov.in, 2018). Phia Tnmg Qudc hoan nghenb "nhimg nhan xet tich cue" eiia Thu tudng Narendra Modi ve quan he An Dp Trung Qudc tai Ddi thoai Shangri-La. Ngudi phat ngdn vien Bd Ngoai giao Tnmg Qudc tuyen bd:
"Chiing tdi dd ghi nhan vd ddnh gid cao nhimg nhan xet tich cue cua Thu tuang Modi vi quan he Trung Qudc - An Do...
Trung Qudc sdn sdng hgp tdc vdi phia An Do de duy tri ddng luc tich cue cua su phdt triin quan he song phuang, thuc day
NGHIEN Cllni TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
hap tdc cung cd lai, xu ly dung su khde biet, duy tri hda binh dgc biin giai vd quan he Trung - An" (Business-standar, 2018).
O dien dan song phuang, ngay 13-7- 2018, ddi thoai ve cac van de hang bai lan thit 2 giiia An Dp va Trung Qudc cap Vu trudng da dupe td chirc tai Bac Kinh.
Theo y kien cua nhieu hpc gia, day la ea che gdp phan nit ngan khoang each va la cau ndi giiip hai nude cimg co long tin giiia An Dp va Trung Quoc d khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong. La hai cudng qudc Idn dang trdi day, An Dp va Trung Qudc cd lai ich rpng Idn va chdng lan tren bien d khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong. De ngan chan su canh tranh bien thanh xung dot trong ITnh vue hang hai, hai nude dang cd gang tang cudng eac ca ehe, kenh ket ndi ngoai giao chien luge. Phuang phap tiep can ngoai giao "tu dudi len " da bat dau dupe tnen khai vdi viec ddi thoai giiia cde quan chiic chinh phu va sau do se dugc tien hanh d cae cap chinh tri cao hon nham timg budc nit ngan khoang each thieu long tin chien lupc giua An Dp va Trung Qudc.
Gia tdng gid tri thuang mai vd vdn di mdt can bang cua An Do trong quan hi thucmg mqi vdi Trung Qudc dugc cdi thien. Sau Dai hdi XIX, quan he kiiih t i Trung - An la dan chiing cho luan diim:
Kbi he thong kinh te van dang trong qua trinh toan cau hda, xung dot khdng lam suy giam quan he kmh te. Cu thi, nam 2017, hai nude cd xung dot nghiem trpng 37
NGUYiN XUAN TRUNG - NGUYEN THI OANH
d Doklam, din din su cang thing trong cae van de khae, nhu Hanh lang CPEC, Bac Kinh can trd nhiing nd luc ciia New Delhi trd thanh thanh vien eua NSG. Tuy nhien, quan he kmh ti, thuong mai hai nude van phat trien tich eye. Tai phien hpp thii 11 cua Nhdm hpp tac kinh te, thuang mai, khoa hpc va edng nghe (thang 3/2018) hai nude da dua ra giai phap di tang cuong hpp tac thuang mai va dau tu song phucmg, dua ra giai phap di giam mit can bang thuong mai va bat dau dam phan ve Hiep dinh thuang mai ty do (FTA). Nhung phat trien nay la minh chiing cho thay mac du cd nhiing bat ddng ve quan he an ninh nhung hgp tac kinh te vln la try cot trong quan he hai nude.
Tham hut thuang mqi gidm nhe: Theo so lieu thdng ke cua Trung Quoc, thuang mai hai nude bimg nd tir nam 2017. Cu thi, gia tri thuong mai hai chieu dat muc ky luc: 84,44 ty USD brong nam 2017, tang 18,63% so vdi nam 2016. Han niia, xuat khau cua An Dp sang Trung Qudc da tang 40%, do dd phan nao giam su tham hut thucmg mai ciia New Delhi vdi Bie Kinh. Cy the, tham but thuang mai ciia An Dp vdi Trung Quoc d miic 51,08 ty USD tt-ong nam tai chinh 2016-2017, giam nhe so vdi 12 thang trude dd. Con so nay dua tren tdng gia tri thuang mai 71,48 ty USD frong nam 2016-2017 (Manoj Joshi, 2018).
Ddu tu FDI Id diem sdng trong quan he kinh te song phuang. Nhung nam gan day, dau tu song phuang da cd nhiing
budc tiin tieh eye. Dau tu tryc tiep nude ngoai ciia Trung Qudc (FDI) vao An Do hi thang 4/2000 din tbdng 6/2017 d miic 1,67 ty USD, chi bing 0,49% tdng FDI vao An Dp trong ciing ky. Rieng nam 2017, cae cdng ty Trung Qudc nhu Alibaba, Fosun, Baidu va Tencent da dau tu 5,2 ty USD vao 30 edng ty mdi thanh lap d An Dp. Tap doan Alibaba ciia Trung Qudc va eac chi nhanh cua tap doan nay da diu tu khodng 1,7 ty USD vao cac cdng ty mdi thanh lap d An Dp nhu Paytm va BigBasket (Kashyap Arora, Rimjhim Saxena, 2018). Tir giua nam 2017 din nay, diu tu eua Trung Qudc vao An Dp chu yeu tap trung vao eac dy an khdi nghiep va linh vyc cdng nghe, ky thuat sd.
Nen tdng eua mdi quan he kinh te hai nude xuat phat tir loi ich ma hai ben mang lai cho nhau. Quy md khdng Id cua nen kinh te Tnmg Qudc, tang Idp trung luu dang phat trien va siic mua eiia nen kinh te tieu dung trong nude mang lai tiem nang to Idn ve thi trudng hang hda va dich vy ciia An Dp ciing nhu ngudn dau tu Idn hon. Dac biet An Dp dang co ke hoach tang cudng nganh cdng nghiep san xuat va Trung Qude ed ke hoach tang chudi gia tri lien quan den ITnb vye nay.
Mat khac, trong bdi ednb Trung Qudc dang phai ddi mat vdi ehinh sach thue cua My, thi ben canh cac bien phap ty ve thuong mai, Bac Kinh dang tim din New Delhi nhu mpt ddi tac kinh te tiem nang.
Bd trudng Thuang mai Trung Qudc Chung San ciing da dua ra tuyen bd di
^
- NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
giai quyet van de tham hut thuong mai cua An Dp trong quan he vdi Trung Qudc (Forbes.com, 2018).
2.4. Ngdn ch^n
Ve khia canh ngan chan, day chinh la mdt phuang dien "an" trong mdi quan he Trung - An. Mdt mat, Tnmg Qudc thi hien su nghi ngd ddi vdi An Dp, dac biet la lien quan den cac dien tap quan sy Quad, Malabar, "tir giac kim cuang" An - My - Australia - Nhat. Trung Qudc nhin nhan ebien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang nhu mdt muu dd di ngan chan su trdi day va gia tang anh hudng cua Trung Qudc. Mat khac. An Dp xem cac boat ddng eua Tnmg Qudc d Nam A tai cang Gwadar d Pakistan, Maldives va Sri Lanka la nhiing nd lyc de bao vay, ngan chan va kiem toa An Dp ddng vai trd Idn ban d trong va ngoai khu vue Nam A. Ngoai ra, Igi ich cua New Delhi d (Bien Ddng) cd the hi anb hudng bdi mpt Bae Kinh quyet doan dudi quyen Tap Can Binh.
An Dp hien nay dang la mpt hat nhan trong chien lupc An Do Duang - Thdi Binh Duang: Tu do vd ma eua My. Theo mpt sd hpc gia Trung Qudc, ddng ca eiia chien luge nay la ngan chan BRI ciia Trung Qudc sang An Dp Duong. My nhin nhan An Dp la mpt nhan td quan trpng, mdt mat xuat phat tit vi tri chien luge cua An Dp d An Dp Duong, vdi siic manh kinh te, quan su, gia tri ddn chu.
An Dp se ngay eang ddng vai trd quan trpng di kiem tda cdc kenh hang hai quan
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUd'C so 1 (209) - 2019
trpng cua Tnmg Qudc d An Dp Duong.
Mat khac quan trgng hon, hien nay An Dp va Trung Qudc dang cd nhiing tranh chap va mau thuan ve Igi ieh va chien luge. "Chien lupc mdi nay nham ddi trgng vdi Trung Qudc thdng qua viee xay dyng mpt co che mdi vdi nhiing nd luc chung cae ddng minh va ddi tac an ninh cua My tai khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong nhu Nhat Ban, An Dp va mdt sd nude thanh vien ASEAN"
(TTXVN, 2017). Su "bdi sinh" cua "bp tir" Australia - My - Nhat - An cd hai tdc ddng ddi vdi Trung Qudc. Mdt mat, day chinh la mdt "thach thiic an ninh true dien" ddi vdi Trung Qudc, nhung d khia canh khac, se eang cung cd sy tap trung cua Tnmg Qudc vao khu vyc chau A - Thai Binh Duong. Vao ngay 7/6/2018, ben le Hpi nghi cac quan ehire cao cap ASEAN tai Singapore, mdt cupc hpp thii hai ve doi thoai an ninh tii giae da dien ra. Tuy nhien, van chua cd dau hieu nao cho thay viec the che hda ca ehe nay.
Mae dii nhan thirc dugc rang hgp tac vdi My, Australia, Nhat la mdt giai phap an toan cho An Dp de ddi trpng vdi Trung Qudc. Nhung xuat phat tir thuc ti, An Dp va Trung Quoc cd chung bien gidi dai, dang cd tranh chap va dudi gde dp kinh te. An Dp ciing cin Trung Qudc nhieu nhu Trung Qudc can An Dp va An Dp khdng the c6 cang thang d bien gidi trude cupc tdng tuyen cii vao nam 2019 tbi lien ket cua An Dp vdi tii giac kim cuong de doi trpng lai Trung Qudc hoan toan khdng cd Igi.
39
NGUYiN XUAN TRUNG - NGUYEN THj OANH
Tam nhin cua An Dp vi khu vuc An Dp Ducmg - Thai Binh Ducmg dupe the hien ro net trong bai phat bieu ciia Thu tudng Modi tai Ddi thoai Shangri la (ngay 1/6/2018). Theo dd, "An Dp khdng xem khu vue An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang nhu mot chien luge hay cau lac bd ciia nhiing thanh vien gidi ban... cdng khdng xem dd la nham chong lai bat ky qudc gia nao... ma la mdt tam nhin tich cue vdi nhieu khia canh: dai dien cho mdt khu vuc ty do, md va bao tnim vi sy tien bd va thinh vugng... An Dp ung hp mdi trudng thuang mai dya tren quy tac, md, can bang va dn dinh... su tham gia ciia An Dp d khu vyc nay mang tinh bao tnim, tdn trpng, ddi thoai, hpp tae, hda binh va thinh vugng, cam kit tuyet ddi vdi luat phap qudc te (mea.gov.in, 2018).
Thdng cao bao chi Bp Ngoai giao An Dp neu rd: An Dp da trinh bay ve tim nhin eua An Dp ddi vdi An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong thdng qua bai phat biiu eua Thii tudng Modi tai Ddi thoai Shangri-La tai Singapore... Ca hai ben nhan manh sy can thiet phai tang cudng ban nua hgp tae hang bai nhu mot khia canh quan trpng cua quan he song phuong An - Trung va la nen tang de ciing ed long tin lan nhau ve ehinh tri va chiin luge giiia hai nude (Economietimes, 2018).
Mpt bgc gia An Do eho rang, phat biiu ciia Thii tudng Modi dang ed lam
"xoay chuyen " khai niem An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong theo each khdng mudn lam "mdt long" Trung Qudc va tim nhin nay khae biet vdi quan diim cua My. Dac
biet, trong khi nhin manh ve mdi quan he vdi Trung Qudc, Thu tudng Modi lai khdng di cap din "Quad" nhu mot co chi de ddi trpng vdi Trung Qude. Tuy nhien, trong bdi canh siic manh va anh hudng eua Trung Qudc ngay cang tang d Tay Thai Binh Duong va Ddng An Dp Duong thi hgp tac vdi "bd tir" van la lya chpn uu tien ma An Dp edn tinh den (semp.com, 2018).
Ket luan
Neu Dai hpi XVIII, mdi quan he Trung Qudc la "dm" ve kinh te, "lanh"
ve ehinh tri - an ninh khi ludn d trong tinh trang nghi ki va ed nhiing mau thuln kit ciu (N.T.Oanh, 2016) thi sau Dai hdi XIX, xu hudng quan he Trung - An da phat trien theo chieu hudng dn dinh ban, nhung van trong khdng khi eua "hda binh lanh" bdi cae xung dot chinh tri vin chua dugc giai quyet triet de. Mat khae, each tiep can hda giai (conciliatory approach) hien nay ciia Trung Qudc ddi vdi An Dp, mdt phan do bdi canh kinh ti toan ciu va an ninh khu vuc (Shyam Saran, 2018) hon la vi Igi ich cua ca hai ben. Cac tuong tac gin day giua An Dp va Trung Qudc da phan nao dn dinh quan he hai nude va mac du cac cupc hgp va cam kit ngoai giao nay khdng dam bao cho mpt mdi quan he on dinh ben vung nhung la nhung budc di tich cue de quan ly cang thang giiia hai ngudi khdng Id chau A trong tam ngan va trung ban.
Tir sau Dai hpi XIX din nay, ban chit cua eac van de trong mdi quan he Trung -
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
An hau nhu khdng thay ddi, diiu thay ddi la bdi canh qudc te va khu vyc da thuc day hai ben cd nhiing dieu chinh mang tinh chien thuat trong ngin ban de phu hpp vdi chien luge trong dai ban va thich ling vdi tinh hinh khu vyc va qudc te.
Nhung nhung dieu chinh mang tinh chien thuat nay tac dpng tich eye den mdi quan he song phuang hai nude, dac biet la trong van de bien gidi va quan he kinh te.
Dieu do cho thay, chi khi khdng xung dot, khdng ddi dau, tdn trpng lan nhau va hgp tac cung thang tbi quan he Trung - An mdi cd the hudng tdi md hinh quan he nude Idn kieu mdi tren the gidi va quan he lang gieng dn dinh d cbdu A.
Nhung trong tuong lai gan, dieu nay khd xay ra. Do dd, chi khi Trung Qudc tiep tuc ap dyng hieu qua "quan he nuac Idn kieu mai" vdi An Dp tbi quan he bai nude se dn dinh va hieu qua hon. Trong tim ngan ban, khdng cd kha nang ve bat ky sy "lech chuan" trong khudn khd 4Cs cua quan he Trung - An. Theo dd, canh tranh, hgp tac, xung dot va ngan chan se tiep tye la nhiing khia canh dan xen, trong do yeu td vira hgp tac vira canh tranh la ro net nhit. Day la thdi diem khd khan doi vdi New Delhi khi can phai tao ra sy can bang giua viec binh thudng hda quan he vdi Trung Qudc, tang eudng hpp tac vdi My de tao ddi trpng vdi su md rpng anh hudng cua Bac Kinh va tranh khdng bi keo vao lan sdng chii nghia bao bd cua My. Ngoai mdt sd dn dinh chung va tam thdi, ky vpng ve mpt mdi quan be dn dinh va ben vimg ban kha la md nhat.
TAI L I E U T H A M K H A O
1. ASEAN Secretariat, 2015, ^ Blueprint for Growth: ASEAN Economic Community 2015:
Progress and Key Achievements, ASEAN Secretariat, 5.
2. ASEAN Secretariat and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2017), ASEAN Investment Report 2017 - Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Zones in ASEAN, ASEAN@50 Special Edition, Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat, Indonesia, October 2017.
3. China, India Should Regard Each Other As "Partners": Xi Jinping, https:// www .ndtv.cora/ india-news/china-india-are-backbone- of-worlds-multi-polarization-economic- globalisation-chmese-president-xi-ji-1844293, truy cap ngay 15/7/2018.
4. China - India Trade Wars in Africa, https://theworldpolitics.org/china-india-trade- wars-in-africa, tniy cap ngay 22/7/2018.
5. China welcomes Modi's remarks on bilateral ties at Shangri-La Dialogue, https://
economic times.indiatimes com/news/ pohtics- and-nation/ china-welcomes-modis-remarks-on- bilateral-ties-at-shangn-la-dialogue/articleshow/
64447639.cms, truy cap ngay 20/7/2018.
6. "Chinese FM Calls for Mutual Trust with India", Xmhua, htlp://www. xinhuanet. com/
english/2018-03/08/c_13702 4429.htm
7. Dalbir Ahlawat, India's Strategic Perceptions: Dilemmas and Opportunities, Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter- Terrorism Macquarie University, Sydney, 12 July 2012.
8. Deinla, I. 2017, The Development of the Rule of Law in ASEAN: The State and Regional Integration, Cambridge University Press.
9. Elizabeth Roche, 2017, Why India o watching China Communist Party Congress
NGHIEN CliU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019 41
N G U Y S N XUAN T R U N G - NGUYEN THj OANH
keenly, https://www livernint.com/Politics/ tHt44 Vtp2N 1 hxtwNFBMkFL/Why-India-is-watching- Chma-Communist-Party-Congress-keenly.html, truy cap ngay 15/7/2018.
10. Executive Summary, Conference on India and the Emerging Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean Region, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Thong tdn xa. An Do Duong: diem nong trong tranh gianh anh hucmg Trung - An, Tai lieu tham khao dac biet, s6 009-TTX, ngay
13/1/2005.
11 Full Text of Li Keqiang's Speech at Opening Ceremony of Boao Forum, Ministry of Commerce, People's Republic of China, http://www.chinadaily.com.en/china/2014-04/l 1 /contentl7425516.htm, truy cap ngay 18/7/
2018.
12. Herbert Wulf, China, India and the three Cs, Stockhom International Peace Research Institute https://www.sipri.org/ commentary/blog/
2014/china-india-and-three-cs.
13 India needs the Quad to counter China's growing power in the Indo-Pacific region, https://www.scmp.com/comment/ insight- opinion/china/article/2154470/india-needs-quad- counter-chinas-growing-power-indo, truy c^p ngay 20/7/2018
14.hiama, S., and Sim, E. W, 2015, The Foundation of the ASEAN Economic Community, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
15. Japan International Cooperation Agency and Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (2015), The Impacts ofTPP and AEC on the Vietnamese Economy Macroeconomic Aspects and the Livestock Sector, University of Economics and Business - Vietnam National University, Hanoi, August 2015.
le.Jeremy Diamond, 2018, 5 things to know about Trump's national security strategy, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/18/ politics/5-
thmgs-to-know-about-trumps-national-security- strategy/index.html, truy cap ngay 19/12/2017.
17. Kashyap Arora, Rimjhim Saxena (2018), India- Chiana economic relations- an assessment, https://southasianvoices.org/ mdia- china-economic-relations-an-assessment/, truy cap ngay 20/7/2018
18. Manoj Joshi, 2018, Fresh overtures hint at a thaw in India-China relations, https://
www.orfonline.org/research/fresh-overtures-hint- thaw-india-china-relations/, truy c|p ngiy 15/7/2018.
19.Lindsay Hughes, 2017, Implications of the Chinese Communist Party's 19th Congress: Part One: Xi Consolidates Power, http://www.
futuredirec tions.org.au/publication/implications- chinese-communist-partys-19th-congress-part- one-xi-consolidates-power/, truy cap ngay 21/7/2018.
20 Littoral, Carlisle Barracks, Pa : U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2006.
21. Nguyin Hoai, 2016, "Viet Nam thanh 'vung triing' tieu thu hang hoa Dong Nam A", Bao dien tu VNEXPRESS, Truy cap tai dia chi:
https://kinhdoanh.vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/vi- mo/viet-nam-thanh-vung-trung-tieu-thu-hang- hoa-dong-nam-a-345 8945 .html.
22. Nguyin Thi Oanh, 2016, "An Do trong su canh tranh chien liroc a An Do Duong hiln nay", Tgp chi Nghien cicu An Dp va chau A, s6 \2 (49), 2016.
23. Nguyen Thi Oanh, 2017, Chinh sdch
"ngoai giao ca sa ha tdng" cua Trung Quoc a khu vuc Nam A, Nghien cixu Trung Quoc, so 7 (191), thang 7/2017, h-. 29-30.
24. Observation on the 19"' Congress report, http://chinamediaproject.org/2017/10/
24/observations-on-the-19th-congress-report/, truy cap ngay 15/7/2018.
25.Prime Minister's Keynote Address at Shangri La Dialogue, https://www.mea.gov.in/
42 - NGHIEN CirU TRUNG QUOC so 1 (209) - 2019
SpeechesStatements.htm?dtl/29943/Prime+Minis ters+Keynote+Address+at+Shangn+La+Dialogu e+June+OH-2018, truy cap ngay 15/7/2018.
26. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, 2018, What does the Modi-Xi summit mean for Sino-Indian relations?, https://www. orfonline. org/ research/
what-does-the-modi-xi-summit-mean-for-sino- indian-relations/, truy cap ngay 21/7/ 2018.
27. Ralph Jennings, 2018, China Eyes Improved India Ties In Case OfSino-U.S. Trade War, https://www.forbes.coni/sites/ ralphjennings/
2018/04/03/china-moves-to-reconcile-with-india- amid-threat-of-sino-u-s-trade-war/#714018785896, truy cap ngay 20/7/2018
28. Rebecca Liao, 2017, "Where Xi Imping Will Take the Middle Kingdom Next", Foreign Affairs, https://www. foreignaffairs. com/articles/
china/2017-10-30/chinas-new-helmsman, truy cSp ngay 15/7/2018.
29. Sana Hashmi,2018a, What to Expect from India-China Relations in 2018?, http://theasiadialogue.com/2018/01/15/what-to- expect-frora-india-china-relations-in-2018/, truy cap ngay 18/7/2018.
30. Sana Hashmi, 2018b, India China relations after Wuhan, http://theasiadialogue.
com/2018/06/26/india-china-relations-after-the- wuhan-summit/, truy cap ngay 7/7/20018.
31. Shyam Saran, 2018, India China relations m the age of Xi Jinping, https://
yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/india-china-relations- age-xi-jinping, truy cap ngay 22/7/2018.
32. Siddharth Singh, Bridging India-China Strategic Distrust in the Indo-Pacific, July 18, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/ Tai heu tham khao
33. Sudeep Kumar, 2018, China's growing strategic influence in Asia is a threat to India, http://www.wionews.coni/ world/ chinas- growing-strategic-influence-in-asia-carries- N6HIEN Cl)U TRUNG QUdC so 1 (209) - 2019
grave-implications-for-mdia-23307, truy cap ngay 15/7/2018.
34.Sutirtho Patranobis, 2017, Stronger, more powerful Xi Jinping will bring foreign policy challenges for India, https://www.
hindustantimes. com/world-news/stronger-more- powerfiil-xi-jinping-will-bring-foreign-policy- challenges-for-india/story-10183Yy85172k KQN0k0gnK.html, tray cap ngay 15/7/2018.
33. Thanadsillapakul, L, 1997, "Framework Agreement on the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA)", Thailand Law Forum, Available at:
http://www.thailawforum.eom/articles/lawanaia.h tmi.
34. T6ng cue Th6ng ke Viet Nam - GSO (2018), Nien giam thong ke 2017, Nha xuit ban Thong ke. Ha Noi.
35. TTXVN, Hpc gia Trung QUdc phan tich ve chien luac "An Bp Ducmg - Thdi Binh Duong", Tin Kinh te, so 2911-TTX, ngay 7/12/2017, tr.3.
What does the 19th CPC National Congress mean for China-India relations and the world?, http://chinaindiadialogue. com/ what-does-the- 19th-cpc-national-congress-mean-for-china- india-relations-and-the-world, truy cap ngay 18/7/2018.
36. Worid Bank, 2017, "Doing Business 2017:
Equal Opportunity for All", A World Bank Group Flagship Report, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Washington DC.
37. World Bank, 2018, "Doing Business 2018:
Reforming to Create Jobs", A World Bank Group Flagship Report, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Washington DC.
38. Xie Tao, 2017, "Chinese Foreign Policy with Xi Jinpmg Characteristics", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://
camegieen dowment.org/2017/11/20/chinese- foreign-policy-with-xi-jmping-characteristics- pub-74765, tray cap ngay 15/7/2018.
