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VAI TRO CUA CAC NHAN TO HAP THU TRONG MOI QUAN H | GiffA FDI VA TANG TRlfdNG KINH TE 6 CAC QUOC GIA DANG PHAT TRIEN
NgAynh4n: 01/7/2014 Ng^y n h e n lai: 27/8/2014 Ng^y duy^t dSng: 10/9/2014 Ma s6'; 9-14-NCTD-g
Nguyin Khdc Quoc Bdo (*)
Tom tdt: Bdi nghiin ciiu ndy thdo ludn khd ndng hap thu hiiu qud (absorptive capacities) cdc lai ich tic ddu tiC trUc tii'p nicdc ngodi (FDI) cda cdc qud'c gia dang phdt trien. Sii dung phiiong phdp hSi quy GMM trin mau nghiin ciiu gom 44 quoc gia dang phdt triin trong giai doan 1993-2012, kit qud nghiin ciiu cho thdy tdc dgng cua FDI ten tdng triidng hodn todn phu thuoc vdo chdt liCang thi che vd do on dinh kinh te vl mo. Han nSa, til bdn than nhdn to hdp thu bao gom chdt lUang thi chi, do Sn dinh kinh ti vi mo, td'c dd do thi hoa vd chdt lugng ca sd ha tdng... cung co tdc dong true tiip len tdng triidng kinh ti. Kit qud nghien ciiu ndy hdm y rhng Chinh phu cua cdc quoc gia nhdn ddu tii khi hoach dinh cdc chinh sdch khdng nin chi tap trung vdo viec thu hut dong vd'n FDI, md quan trong Id phdi di kem vdi cdi thien the che, khudn khd ludt phdp cung nhiC giU on dinh moi trUdng kinh te ui md niu mud'n phdt huy tdi da hieu qud cua ngudn vdn FDI cho phdt trien.
Tit khoa: FDI, nhdn td hdp thu, tdng trudng kinh te, GMM.
Gidi thi^u
C^c d6ng vd'n ddu tif, dac bi§t la FDI la mot trong nhQng n h a n tfi' chinh trong qu^ trinh phdt tri§"n va hpi nhap qu6'c te cua cAc quo'c gia dang phat tri§"n. Ve ly thuyg't, FDI se tac dgng va gop p h a n v^o tSng tradng kinh ti (EG) cua cac quo'c gia. Tuy nhien, cac ke't qua nghien ciJu thUc nghigm ve mo'i quan he giaa FDI va EG 1& khong ro r a n g vk thie'u sii thong nhat. Nhu'ng chinh sdch diTa t r e n gia dinh r^ng FDI se dem iai tac dpng tich cac len tang tradng trong mot s6' hodn canh rat CO the ddn den ke't qua khong n h a mong muon. Do dd, bdi vie't ndy nghien citu c^c yeu to d6ng vai tr6 Id dieu kien de FDI c6 tdc dpng tich cac len tdng tradng, hay noi cdeh khac Id qud trinh tdng tradng kinh te cd the ha'p thu diiac cdc lgi ich cua FDI d cdc quoc gia dang phat trien.
Qua khao sdt tdi ligu ta cdc nghien cau trade day, tdc gia cho rdng nguyen nhan cdc bdng
chiJng thac nghiem ve mo'i quan he giQa FDI vd EG khong nha't qudn vdi nhau Id vi cdc nghidn cau nay da khong x6t m6t cdeh ddy du vai tr6 cua nhu'ng "nhan to' ha'p thu" (absorptive capacities). Cac n h a n to' ndy vCfa tdc d6ng tnJc tie'p Ign tdng tradng va thu hut ddu ta FDI, vifa la dieu kien de niTdc nhdn dau t a hadng lpi tii dong vo'n ndy. Vi vay, n h a n g mo hinh hoi quy EG theo FDI nhOng thieu c^c bi§'n kig'm sodt, dai dien cho cdc n h a n to' hap thu se khien cho ket qua hoi quy khong chinh xdc. Nghien cilu ndy nhdm tra ldi cho cac cau hdi: c6 phSi cdc qud'c gia vdi moi tradng kinh tg' vi mo vd thfi*
che tot hon cd thg" tan dung diiac nguon vffn FDI mpt cdeh hi$u qud hon hay khong?
Mo'i quan h^ co d i i u ki^n givfa FDI vk t a n g trtfdng k i n h te
Vai trd cua von ddu t a len t d n g tradng kinh tg' da dagc de cdp trong edc ly thuyg't kinh t^
hoe n h a md hinh Harrod - Domar, md hinh Solow vd ly thuydt tfing t r a d n g n^i sinh. Mdc
I Cdng nghe Hg^in Hatig
S6'102 •Thine 9/2014
NGHIEN CUU TRAO DOI < « «
du t i m quan t r o n g cua tid't kigm luon dacfc nhdfn manh trong mo hinh Harrod - Domar nhihig k^t ludn chinh ducfc rut ra lai cho rdng ngu6n von ddu t a cdn thig't cho n e n kinh tg' khong n h a n g phu thudc vdo tig't kiem, md cdn t a dau t a mdi, cu t h ^ Id FDI. Thong qua FDI, khdng n h a n g n h i l u h d n g hda vd'n mdi dUdc tao ra (tdng tdi sdn vd'n v|it chat cua n^n kinh tg') md chi phi d^ sdn xud^t ra chiing cdn gidm di (do sa cdi thidn trong nSng sud't nhd cdng nghg mdi), qua dd tdc ddng tich cac tdi tdng tradng kinh tg'. Ben canh do, cac nghign cd'u thac nghiSm bd sung eho md hinh Solow vd 1^ thuyg't tfing tradng npi sinh cho tha'y rfing cdc n e n kinh te* dang tdng tradng nhanh d^u cd chung mpt so ddc diem: on dinh kinh te' vi mo vd chinh tri, hg thd'ng y tg' vd gido due td't han, n e n the che' td't hon, edc chinh sdch ho trg vd thiic day giao thaong cung nha ddu t a nadc ngodi. Trong dd, FDI Id mdt kenh quan trgng dem lai sa chuyen giao cdng nghg dg'n cdc qud'c gia dang phdt trien thdng qua higu ang "lan tda cdng nghe"
(technology spillovers).
Nghidn cau cua Blomstrdm vd cdc tdc gia (2001), cho rdng FDI gdp phan thiic ddy tdng tradng kinh tg' khi qud'c gia tie'p n h d n dau ta sd hau mdt trinh dd gido due nhd't dinh. Trdi lai, nhang nghien cau cua Carkovic vd Levine (2005), Blomstrdm vd Wolf (1994) lai khdng tim thfi'y bdng chang ndo chang minh cho vai trd quan trgng cua gido due. Ke't qua taong phdn ndy Id do viec laa chpn big'n dai dien cho nhdn td' gido due cua cdc nghien cau trade dd khdng the hidn dagc sg khac biet ve cha't lagng gido due giaa cdc qud'c gia (Miao Wang vd Sunny Wong, 2011).
Cf mOt khia canh khde, mpt vdi tdc gia thi cho rdng mOt thi tradng tdi chinh phdt trien Id dilu kign tign quye't d l FDI cd the thuc ddy tdng tradng kinh tg'. Ldp lu^n ndy cho rdng FDI chi cd t h i thuc dfi'y tdng tradng khi thi tradng tdi chfnh d qud'c gia nhdn ddu ta phdt t r i l n m$t cdeh ddy dii vd cd kha nfing giup chu chuyin ddng vd'n dg'n cdc hoat dpng ddu
t a san xuat cd higu qua. Han nQa, hieu tfng lan tda v l kie'n t h a c (knowledge spillovers) chi xdy ra khi cdc doanh nghigp trong nadc cd kha nfing ddu t a vao vige tie'p thu cdng nghe nadc ngodi vd dieu ndy cd t h i hi h a n chg' khi thi tradng tdi chinh trong nadc kem p h a t t r i l n (Adams, 2009; Alfaro vd cdc tdc gia, 2009; Hermes vd Lensink, 2003). Dp md thaong mai cung cd the Id dieu kien de FDI tae ddng tich cgc Ign tdng tradng kinh te (Alguaeil va cdc tdc gia, 2002; Balasubramanyam va cac tdc gia, 1999; Alguaeil vd cdc tac gia, 2004).
Chd't lagng co sd ha t a n g dia phapng, ddc biet Id truyen thdng va giao thdng van tai cung Id n h a n td' bo sung cd lien quan (Easterly, 2001;
Li vd Liu, 2004).
Anh hadng ciia mdi tradng kinh tg' vi md va kha ndng thu hiit ddng vd'n nadc ngodi cung da dagc nghidn cau sau rdng (Demekas va cde tac gid, 2007). Sg bd't on vi rad cd t h i gay can trd cho qud t n n h tich luy vd'n va tfing tradng kinh tg'. Nhang chii bdo cho dp ba't on kinh te' vi md thudng dagc dung Id lam phdt, ty le ng nadc ngodi cao vfi t h a m hut ngfin sdch. Nhang nhdn td' ndy dagc cho Id lam gia tdng tinh bdt I n , Ifim xfi'u di mdi tradng kinh doanh vfi do dd Ifim giam td'c do tfing tradng. Hon nda, chiing cdn tao ra sa khdng chfic ehfin, t a dd khdng chi ngdn can vigc tig'p can ddng vd'n nadc ngodi, mfi edn ldm giam hieu dng thuc da'y nfing sua't ciia FDI, Luan diem cud'i cung nay da chdng thae bdi Prufe va Tond! (2008).
Ngofii ra, cac nghien cau thgc nghiem gan day cung nhd'n manh de'n vai trd quan trpng cua t h i che cd the anh hadng ddng ke de'n hoat ddng kinh tg'. Day lfi nhang k i t luan chinh trong cdc bdi nghien cdu cija Rodrik vd cdc tdc gia (2004), Acemoglu vd Johnson (2005), Adams (2009) vd Easterly (2005). Theo Easterly (2005), khdi niem the c h l de cap de'n "nhang sg sdp xg'p mang tinh sfiu xa (deap-seated) trong xa hdi nha quyen sd hau, ludt phdp, truyen thd'ng phdp ly, ldng tin giaa con ngadi, trdch nhi^m ddn chu cua chinh quyln vd nhdn quyln". Taong
CotX( nghe
ngan hang I
S6'102 "Thing 9/2014 I
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tg n h a tinh ba't on kinh tg' vi md, ngoai tac ddng trgc tig'p de'n tfing tradng, he t h d n g the che cung ddng vai trd la n h a n td" ehinh thu hiit ddng vd'n FDI. Sd di n h a vay la bdi vi, nha ddu t a FDI (dac bigt la FDI dau t a mdi - greenfield FDI) ludn phai dd'i m a t vdi vd'n de chi phi chim va chi phi chim thi bi dnh hadng bdi tinh ba'p benh, khdng chdc chfin eung n h a tinh hieu qua ciia he thd'ng phap luat vd chinh tri (Demekas va cac tdc gia, 2007). Mdt he thd'ng the che' td't se giup lam giam nhang chi phi chim lien quan khi thgc hien ddu ta (chang h a n chi phi "bdi tron").
Cac nghien eau thgc nghigm taong tg cung cho tha'y rdng, de cd mpt md'i quan he tich cgc giaa FDI va t a n g trudng kinh t e , ddi hdi phai cd mpt khudn kho phdp ly td't va mdt mdi tradng t h i che' on dinh. Dilu nay ed the lara gia tdng hieu ang lan tda t a FDI bdi vi nd anh hadng trgc tie'p dg'n mdi tradng boat dgng kinh doanh (Bengoa vd Sanchez-Robles, 2005; Prufer vd Tondl, 2008).
Nha vay, td cdc bdng chang thgc nghiem ve md'i quan hg giaa FDI va EG, chung ta cd t h i tha'y ludn cd sa xua't hien cua cac n h a n td' nha giao due, chd't lagng t h i chg', mdi tradng kinh doanh, sg phdt t r i l n thi tradng tdi chinh vd cO sd ha tdng... ldm cho FDI cd tdc dpng rd rgt va tieh cgc Ign EG. Ve phaong dien ky thuat, mdt md hinh hdi quy d l tim kig'm md'i quan hg giaa FDI vfi EG md thie'u cac bie'n k i l m scat dai dign cho cac ye'u to' vaa ngu se cho ra mdt ke't qua cd y nghia tha'p hoac khdng chinh xac. Ndi mdt each khac, chinh cac ye'u td' nay da tac dgng trgc tie'p vd chi phd'i md'i quan he giaa FDI vd EG.
Chinh vi vdy, quan he giaa FDI vd EG dagc xem Id mdt md'i quan he cd dilu kien, nghia Id FDI chi thgc sg tdc ddng tich cgc len EG khi cd sg xua't hien cua edc dieu kien vaa neu vd ehinh cac dieu kien nay dagc xem Id cac n h a n td' cho qud t r i n h hd'p thu FDI cua mdt qud'c gia. Nghien cau ndy p h a t t r i l n md hinh t h i hien md'i quan he cd d i l u kien gida FDI vd EG thdng qua cdc n h a n to' h a p thg vd mong mud'n ddng gdp cac bfing chdng t h a c
n g h i e m ve cfic nhfin to' n a y d cdc qud'c gia dang p h a t t r i e n .
Phtfdng p h a p n g h i e n ctfu v a dS U^u Mo hinh nghien ciXu
D l gidi quye't muc tigu n g h i e n cau da dat ra, b a i vig't da xay dgng mdt mo hinh the hign vai trd cua nhfin to' h d p thu dg'n md'i quan he FDI-EG. Md h i n h n a y cd dang:
Theo cac md hinh t r u y i n thd'ng, big'n phu thudc - td'c dd tfing t r a d n g GDP thgc binh quan dau ngadi - dagc gidi thich bdi logarit co s6 t a nhjgn cua GDP thgc binh qudn ddu ngadi hai ndm trade; n h d m cdc big'n dpc lap (Xj) bao gom ty so' gida td"ng tdi san ed' dinh tich luy vdi GDP va td'c do t a n g t r a d n g dan sd';
ty sd' giaa tong ddng vd'n FDI vdi GDP. Vigc do ladng ddng vd'n FDI b ^ n g ty so t r e n dace da sd dgng rdng rai trong n h i l u nghidn cdu (Adams, 2009; Herzel va cac tdc gia, 2008) vd tig'p tue dagc sd dgng trong nghien cdu ndy Tac gid hoan t h i e n md hinh, bdng cdeh b l sung thdm mot nhdm bie'n ddc ldp (Zj^) vdi mgc dich do ladng tdc ddng cua cfic nhdn td dac thu cua qud'c gia tie'p nhfin dau t a ldn md'i quan he giaa FDI vd t a n g tradng kinh te'. Nhdng n h a n to' ndy bao gom gido due, chd't lagng t h i che', sg on dinh kinh tg' vi rad, ecf sd ha t a n g . Miao Wang vd Sunny Wong (2011) lap luan r d n g bie'n dai dien cho nhan td' giao due dagc chon bdi cdc nghien cdu trade day khdng the hidn dagc sg khdc biet ve cha't lagng gido due giOa edc qud'c gia. Cu the, h a m lagng tri thdc tich luy dagc trong mdt ndm dao tao tai qud'c gia nay rd rdng se khdng bdng vdi mdt ndm ddo tao tai qud'c gia khac. Cdc chi bfio dai dign eho n h d n td' gido due thadng dagc sd dung gom: sd' ndm di hpc trung binh (Carkovic vfi Levine, 2005), ty Ig dan so' cd t r i n h dp pho t h d n g trd ldn (Li vd Liu, 2005). Tfie gia eho r d n g cdc chi bdo ndy
ED con<ingh« n g a n h a n g
.So l o : •Thang 9/2014
NGHIEN cufu TRAO DOI « « <
khdng thdt sg do ladng dugc trinh do cua Ige lagng lao ddng cung n h a kha nfing tig'p thu cdc cdng nghe mdi - d i l u kien quan trpng d l higu dng lan toa eiia FDI xay ra. Do dd, tfie gid chpn ty le ddn sd* cd t r i n h do dai hgc hoae cao ddng de ldm b i l n dai dien eho nhfin to' gi- do due n h a trong nghien edu cua Miao Wang vd Sunny Wong (2011).
Cha't lagng t h i che dagc dai dign bdi chi sd' tg do kinh te' (Index of economic freedom lEF) - do t l chdc The Heritage Foundation vd Wall Street Joumai thu thfip vfi tinh tofin. Chi sd' ndy thgftng dgge sd dung bdi cdc nghidn cOu thgc nghiem trade ddy v l tdng tradng kinh te' vd dagc xem nha thadc do cho kha ndng thu hdt ddng ddu ta nadc ngodi cua mpt qud'c gia.
Bengoa vd Sanchez-Robles (2005) Ifip lufin rdng lEF eao ddng nghia vdi n e n kinh te' hadng ngoai vd it bi can thigp ciia Chinh phu han.
Mdt dfic diem quan trpng cua chi sd' ndy mfi tdc gia muon nhd'n m a n h dd Id nd xem xet nhieu khia canh, chu yg'u lfi cdc khia canh v l the ehe vd ehinh sdeh cd a n h hadng md'i quan h^ FDI - tfing tradng. Trong dd bao gdm ca dd md v l thaong mai vd mdc do phdt t r i l n , hdi nhdp cua thi tradng tfii chinh. Nha vay vdi vigc sd dgng chi sd' l E F , bdi nghien cdu cd t h i xem xdt dggc tdc ddng chung cua ca 4 nhdn t l (chd't laong t h i che, mdc dd hdi n h a p thacfng mai, mdc dp hdi n h a p tai ehinh vfi trinh dd phdt t r i l n cua thi tradng tdi chinh).
Ngofii ra, tdc gia cung thdm vdo tich giaa FDI vd l E F (fdi*ecfree) trong md hinh de tim kig'm bdng chang cho cau hdi Ueu cha't lagng t h i che tot ed ldm tdng kha ndng thg hadng lgi ieh t a FDI cua mdt qud'c gia hay khdng.
Nhdn td' I n dinh kinh te vi md dagc dai dien bdng ty Ig no nadc ngofii t r e n gid tri xuat kha'u (External debt to export ratio) Cdc nghien cdu thgc nghigm trade day thadng Iga chpn vd cai big'n mdt trong s6' 5 tidu ehi dagc dung d l do ladng do I n dinh kinh te vi md theo tidu chudn Maastricht; dd la lam phdt, ldi sud't dfii han, ty sd' ng qud'c gia t r e n GDP, thdm hgt cdn cfin ngfin sdeh vd sg on dinh cua
ty gid. Vigc Iga ehpn bien ndo sg tuy thudc vao n h a n dinh eua tdc gia v l t i n h hinh kinh te' vi md cua edc nadc dagc ehpn mau trong thdi ky nghign cau. Trong mdu quan sat eua nghien cdu n a y gdm 44 qud'c gia dang phdt t r i l n trong giai doan 1993-2012, vdi hai sg kign quan trong la khung hoang tai chinh chau A (1997) vd khung hoang tdi ehinh todn eau (2008-2010). Tdc gia cho rang bien td't nhfi't d l dai dien cho dd ba't on kinh tg' td bdn ngodi Id ty le ng nadc ngodi t r e n gia tri xud't khau (exdeb) vi big'n so' ndy nam bat dagc tfie ddng cua ty gia vfi xua't khau (hai kenh t r u y i n ddn chu yg'u - ngofii ddng vd'n FDI - t r u y i n dan tac ddng cua khung hoang Ign cdc nadc dang phdt t r i l n ) . Dong thdi, bie'n ndy cdn the hien dagc xu hgdng tfing ng nadc ngodi cua nhieu nadc trong mdu nghien cdu.
Dai dign cho dp ba't on kinh tg' bgn trong se Id lam phat (infla). Bgn canh tac ddng trgc tie'p len tdng trgdng, dp on dinh kinh td' vi "
md cung dagc xem Id dieu kien de mdt qud'c gia thu hadng dapc lgi ieh t a FDI. Taong tg nha vdi nhdn td' cha't lagng t h i e h l , tde gid daa tich sd'(fdi*exdeb) vd (fdi*infla) ldm bie'n ddc lap d l k i l m dinh gia thuye't nay.
Dd'i vdi nhfin to' co sd ha tang, bdi nghign cdu sd dung bie'n so lagng thue bao dign thoai tren mdt ngan dan. So vdi cdc thadc do khde thadng daoc dung trong cac nghien cdu trade ddy nha he thd'ng thiiy lpi, sd' lagng tradng hoc, sd' lapng benh vien. thi chi bfio nay cd nhieu au diem vagt trdi Thd nha't, nd phan anh dagc chi phi va mac dp khai thdc eo so ha tang eua mdt qud'c gia. Bdi vi cdng cd nhieu thue bao dien thoai t r e n mdt ngan dan thi chi phi bien eua he thd'ng vien thdng edng thfi'p. Tha hai, ddy la chi bao cd tinh so sanh rd net giaa cac qudc gia.
£>i? li^u nghien ciiu
Da lieu dagc thu thap cho nghien cdu nfiy gom 44 qud'c gia trong khoang giai doan 1993-2012.
Ndm 1993 dagc chon ldm mdc vi bdt ddu ta ndm ndy dd ligu cho todn bd cfic qud'c gia
CdngnghQ n Q d H 113119 S6'l02«Thingy/2OI4
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mdi cd sfin. Ngoai tri^ chi s6' l E F , cac diJ lidu cdn lai dagc thu t h a p td bd da lieu World Development Indicators (WDI) p h a t h a n h bdi Ngdn hdng The gidi (WB) vao n a m 2013.
Vigc chpn mdu cde qud'c gia dagc cdn ed vao hai tigu chi: (i) Tae gid ehi chpn n h a n g qud'c gia dgge WB phdn Ioai vao nhdm qud'c gia cd thu nhap thd'p, trung binh - tha'p va trung binh; (ii) Tdc gia loai cdc qud'c gia cd d a n sd' vdo ndm 2012 dadi 1 trieu ngadi. Tdc gia tin rdng, so vdi nhang n e n kinh te' ldn hPn, vai trd eua FDI d n h a n g qud'c gia ndy khdng t h a t sg cd y nghia dd'i vdi nghidn cdu. Vdi mgc tieu nghien cdu da trinh bay, tfie gia thge hign chgn mdu sao cho p h a n ldn nhQng qud'c gia dagc chgn thgc hign chie'n lage phfit trien kinh te hadng ngoai vdi t r g n g tdm la thu hut FDI. Dong thdi, mdu dagc chpn cung bao gdm nhang qud'c gia ma trong sud't thdi ky nghien cdu da t r a i qua cac dgt cai to lam tfing tinh on dinh kinh te' v: rad vd mdi tradng t h i chg'.
K e t q u a n g h i e n c i i u va t h a o l u a n
vfiy, d l khdc phue cfic vi p h a m ndy, tfie gia sd dung phaang phdp GMM vdi ma trfin trgng s i White de khdc phue khuyet d i l m phagng sai thay d i i , ndi sinh vd thay b i l n infraSjt bdng Ainfras; (..i, bien popit bfing Apop^ t.i d l khdc phgc h i e n t a g n g da cdng tuyg'n.
Ngodi ra, cd mdt sg t h a y doi v l ki thudt khi tie'n h a n h hoi quy: (i) Tac gia hoi quy md hinh theo dang sai p h a n bgic 1 cua td't ca cac b i l n trong md hinh de khdc phue hign tggng tg taang quan vd loai bo cac tdc ddng cd' dinh (fixed effect); (ii) Thay vi them big'n t r i cua bien phu thudc ldm b i l n dgc Igp khi tie'n h d n h hoi quy, tdc gia thgm bie'n tre ciia log C0 so t g nhidn eua gid tri GDP (Alguaeil vd cac tde gid, 2010); (iii) Theo nghien cdu Holtz-Eakin vfi cdc tdc gid (1988), tdc gid sd dung big'n trd cua ede bie'n ndi sinh Id bien cdng eg, bdi vi dieu ndy giiip cdc big'n ndi sinh dagc xdc dinh trade; (iv) Sd dgng sai p h a n bac 1 cua bil^n trd cua cdc big'n bi da cdng tuye'n Id bie'n cdng cu.
Khi b^i quy md hinh (1) bdng phaang phap binh phaong bd nha't thi cde gia dinh rang budc bi vi pham bao gdm phaong sai thay doi, tg taong quan vd da edng tuyg'n. Hon nda, theo nghign cau cua Alguaeil vd cde tde gia (2010), cd md'i quan he hai chilu giaa FDI vd td'c dp tfing tradng kinh tg' vd day Id mdt nguyen nhfin dfin dd'n hien tagng ndi sinh. Vi
Theo k i t qua k i e m dinh md'i taong quan tuyen tinh (he so taong quan Pearson) vd phi tuyg'n (he sd' taong quan Spearman), hai b i l n FDI vd td'c do p h d t t r i l n kinh te' ed md'i quan h^
cdng chilu, tuy nhign gid tri tuyet dd'i h^ s i taong quan k h d n g cao, dieu ndy phu hgp vdi lap ludn cua tdc gia d t r e n , ngodi bdn than FDI ra, sg hien dien eua cfic n h a n t l hd'p thu B a n g 1: Gial thfch cac bie'n so' va n g u o n du' li^u
B i e n GDP pop di fdi urban ini'ras ecfree exdeb infla tertiarj-
D i n h n g h i a GDP thgc binh quan dau ngu'di Toe do t a n g tru'dng dan so
Ty le giCfa dong von dau t u trong nisdc va GDP Ty le FDI t r e n GDP
Ty le t a n g tru'O'ng dan so t h a n h thi So luong thue bao dien thoai t r e n mot ngan dan Chi so' tix do kinh tS'
Ty le ng nu'd'c ngoai t r e n gi^ tri xuat khau Lam phSt
Ty 1^ dan so' co trinh do bSc dai hoc/cao ddng
N g u o n dS l l $ u WDI (2012) WDI (2012) WDI (2012) WDI (2012) WDI (2012) WDI (2012) Tlie Wall Street Journal v& The Heritage Foundation
WDI (2012)
WDI (2012) ^ , WDI (2012) J
U J Si 102 •Than
anhang
J 9/2014
-
NGHIEN CtJfU TRAO DOI « < «
cua q u i c gia nhfin ddu t a c6 vai trd ddng k l tdc dOng Ign ttfc d§ t d n g t r a d n g k i n h te'.
K i t qua h i i quy dagc t r i n h bdy trong Bdng 2.
Cdc b i l n ddc Ifip trong edng thiJe (1) dagc tudn t g t h e m vdo md h i n h td (1) d i n (9), d md hinh (10), t o d n bd big'n ddc l a p vfi cde bi^n tgong tde giaa FDI vdi b i l n chi so l E F , ty s i ng nadc ngodi t r e n xud't khdu, l a m p h a t dagc t h e m vdo. Gia t r i p-value cua k i l m dinh
J chdng to cae md h i n h d i u phu hgp. Tuy n h i e n , cdc kd't qud thu dagc bdi kiem dinh Arellano-bond lai eho t h ^ y , cdc md hinh t a (1) dg'n (4) va md h i n h (6) cd h i e n tggng t g taong quan (autocorrelation). D i l u ndy khig'n cac hg so' hdi quy eua ehung k h d n g ddng t i n cay. Tfie gid cho r d n g nguyen n h d n khig'n hign t a g n g t g taong quan xud't hign d ede md h i n h Id do bd sdt bid'n (omitted variables).
Bdng c h a n g la ke td rao h i n h (7) trd di, khi
B a n g 2: K i t q u a n g h i e n citu
Big'n phu thu^c; To'c do t i n g trifdng GDP thgc. PhJOng phap hoi quy. GMM. Thdi ki: 1993-2012
L„yi pop
dl
fdi
Model (1) -1.974- (-16,5) -1,981*
(-53,4) 0,169*
(33.80) 0.314-' (41,8)
Model (2) -2,019"' (-8,29) -0,631*
(-5,692) 0,200*
(18,3) 0,273*
(16,4) Model (3)
-2,069*
(-6,49) -0,611*
(-3.44) 0,191*
(11,64) 0.269*
(12,49) Model (4)
-2,411*
(-6,216) -0,844*
(-4.363) 0,177*
(9,148) 0,248*
(9,403) Model (5)
-3,323*
(-6,74) -1,037**
(-2,51) 0,154*
(5,19) 0,215**
(6,85) Model (6)
-2,072*
(-4,94) -0,874*
(-3,311 0,206- (5.69) 0,233- (5,04i
Model (71 -3.786*
(-6,53) -1,127- (-2,84) 0.141*
(3,90) 0,218*
(5,91) Model (8)
-3,584- (-5,72) -1,200*
(-3,13) 0,176*
(3,891 0,187- (4.051
Model (9) -4.44*
(-5,62) -1,42*
(-3,91) 0,212*
(2,91) 0.171"
(3,031 Model (10)
-3,88*
(-5,06) -0,95—*
(-1,83) 0,179-' (2,06i 0,032 (0,499 i Structural variables
urb.„
,„f™
0.962*
(7.491 1,009*
(5,69) 0,364' 15.821
0,185 (0,6861 0,324*
(5,41(il 2,610- (5,85) 0,357*
(3,071 0,677--
(2,.^G) (6,55i
1,830*
(4,35) 0,296—
'2.501 1,873- (3,851 0,36.3*
(2,731 1,71-"
(1,92) 0.38' 12,62)
1,673-' (2,2641 0,538 (2,921 Institutiaiial variable
ecfree 0,213*
(10,421 0,167-
(G.02) 0,1.5^^
(5,77) (),18;i- (4,95)
0 096- '3,171 Macroeconomic instability variables
„d.b infla tertiary
-0,028' (-4,63)
-0,029"*
(-11,331 -0,02*
(-4,82) -0,023*
(-^,14) -0.003-**
(-2.69) -0,019**
(-2.19) -0,005- 1-2,45) 0,110*
(3,02|
-0.014-**
(-1,82) -0,001 (-1,27) 0,0.52 (1,577) Interaction terms
fdix rdi X fdix inna Obs St«st SOSC test Wald (J) Wald (IT)
7 4 8 0,618 0,099 0,000
-
7 4 8 0,546 0.0168 0,000
-
745
0,555 N A 0,000
-
745
0,542 X A 0,000
-
745 0,789 0,464 0,000
-
745 0,629
NA 0,000
-
745 0,673 0.816 0,000
-
745 0,715 0,918 0,000
-
745 0,838 0.699 0,000
-
-0,007- '2,571 -0,002- (-3.091 -0,002' (-4,38) 745 0,866 0,875 0,000 0,0059 Ghi dm " * , ••, • tdn luat dai dicn mdc y ngliia 10%, 5'~r. 1% Ket qud hoi quy bao gdm constant term, Gid In luang Ung vdi S lest. SOSC lest, Wald lest td p-valuc, Bien cdng cii bao gom. riy, ,_^, pop,,., • pop,, j , rfi,, ^, fdi^, ^. urban^, ^, infras^, j
infras^, ^, ecfree^, ^, ctdcb^j 2; "'f^°,.i -j Old tr; Irong 0 Id gid Iri sai's6 chudn
cotMjmihc n g d n h a n g
So 102«Th,infy/20l4
m
> » » NUnitNUUU IKAU0UI
eae bid'n exdeb, infl, t e r t i a r y va edc bie'n taong tdc dagc daa vdo thi ke't qua cua k i l m dinh Arellano-bond cho thd'y k h d n g con hien tagng tg taong quan n a a .
Can ca tren ke't qua cija kiem dinh Arellano-Bond vd kiem dinh J, n h a n g md h i n h dang tin eay nha't Id md hinh t a (7) de'n (10). Dung n h a ki vgng, dau eiia he so' hoi quy cua bie'n to'c do tdng tradng dan so' vd GDP cf thdi ki tr\i6c la am vd da'u cua bid'n di (dai dien eho vd'n dau ta trong nadc) la daong. Taong tg, he so' ciia big'n urban vd infrast Id daong vd cd y nghia, dieu ndy phii hop vdi ki vgng cung nha bdng chang thgc nghigm cua cac nghien cau trade day. Trong cac mo hinh (7), (8) va (9), he so' hdi quy cua bie'n fdi daong vd cd y nghia thdng kg, tuy nhign, trong md hinh (10), khi cac big'n taong tac fdiit x ecfreeit, fdiit X exdebit, fdiit x inflit dagc daa vdo md hinh, bie'n fdi khdng c(3 y nghia naa, Mac khac, kie'm dinh Wald, gom ca kiem dinh rieng le va kie'm dinh dong th&i cho he so' cua cac bie'n taong tdc ndy, deu chang td chung cd y nghia. Dieu ndy cd nghia la trong cac md hinh (7), (8) vd (9), he so' eua big'n fdi da "ha'p thu" tac dgng ciia cac n h a n t a taong tac nay khi chung chaa dagc daa vdo. Dieu ndy minh chang rdng, tac dgng cita FDI len t a n g tradng kinh te' tai mgt quo'c gia hoan toan phu thudc vdo cha't lagng the che' va sg dn dinh kinh tg' vi md eua quo'c gia do.
Dd'i vdi bie'n tertiary, tac gia khdng tim dagc bang chang thgc nghiem cho tac ddng ciia gido dgc Ign tdng tradng. Nguyen n h a n ed the' Id do cha't lagng giao due a cac nadc vd'n khdng dong deu nhau, bie'n ty le dan so cd trinh dd dai hgc/cao ddng md tac gia Iga chon - cung n h a cde nghien cau khdc - khdng the hien dagc sg khac biet nay. Tuy nhien, tac gia cho rdng va'n de dd'i vdi n h a n t(3' giao due ehi mang tinh ki t h u a t bdi tac dong ctia n h a n to' gido due da bi "hap thu"
vdo trong t h a n h phan tac ddng cd' dinh (fixed effect) ciia phaong t r i n h hoi quy vd do dd khdng anh hadng tdi ke't luan cua chung ta
v^ md hinh. D^n day, cd t h e rut ra cdu tra ldi cho hai c^u hdi chinh cua bdi nghign cau ndy: (i) Dd'i vdi cdc qud'c gia dang phdt trien, dgng Ige t h a t sg cho t d n g tradng kinh te trong dai h a n chinh la vai trb cua FDI kg't hgp vdi n h a n g tie'n bg trong chinh sdch vd ca'u triic n e n kinh td"; (ii) Cd day du bdng chang dg' tin rdng cac quo'c gia vdi moi tracfng kinh ti vi md vd t h i che' td't hon cd t h e t a n dung dagc nguon vd'n FDI mgt each hieu qua hdn. Khong n h a n g vdy, theo ke't qua cua nghien edu ndy, mdi tradng kinh te' vi md on dinh vd t h i che td't Id di^u kien tidn quyg't md nha't dinh cdc qud'c gia dang p h a t t r i l n phai dat dagc de thu hadng lgi ich t a FDI. Ta dd chung ta cd t h i daa ra hai h a m y ve m a t chinh sdch. ThiJ nha't, thu h u t FDI k h o n g dong nghia vdi phat t r i l n . Bdng chdng thgc nghigm ma tdc gia thu dagc Ciing cd' quan diem cho riing cdc chinh sach nhdm tao dgng Ige cho nha dau ta jni6c ngoai k h d n g du de tao ra t d n g tradng bin vang. T h a hai, dd Id cai t h i g n mdi tradng ddu ta, on dinh kinh td' vl md mdi Id cd't ldi cua mdt chinh sach dung d i n . Chinh phu qud'c gia sd t a i dga t r e n bo'i eanh ddc trang ciia qud'c gia minh - cdn daa ra n h a n g chinh sach phd'i hgp m d t each h a i hda cdc thanh t^
trong cong thdc t a n g t r a d n g . Cac t h a n h to' do bao gdm mdt mdi t r a d n g ehinh sach - kinh te' thich hop de hieu a n g lan toa cd the didn ra, cac chinh sach thu h u t ddng vd'n nadc ngoai va ddc biet la thuc day p h d t t r i e n cdng ngh$
- dgng Igc to'i hau de d a t dagc tdng trgdng kinh te' ben vang.
Ke't l u a n
Trong n h a n g t h a p nien g a n day, nhieu qud'c gia dang phdt t r i l n da xem vigc thu hut FDI la n h a n td' ehinh ye'u trong chig'n laoc phat t r i l n kinh tg' ciia minh. Tuy nhign, vai tr6 t h a t sg eua FDI do'i vdi tdng tradng kinh te vdn la mgt eau hdi md cde nghign cdu thgc nghiem vdn con t r a n h cai. Dga trdn quan diem rdng cdc qud'c gia dang p h d t t r i l n vd'n khdng dong nha't vdi nhau vd cde n h d n to ddc trang cho ca'u true vd mdi trudng kinh te' ciia
m cotKjntihp n g a n h a n g
SfV 102 •Thiing 9/2014
NGHIEN CUTU TRAO DOI < « «
quo'c gia tiep n h d n ddu t a c6 t h e viia ed tdc ddng t r g c tig'p len t d n g t r a d n g , thu h u t von FDI vaa Id d i l u kign d l n a d c n h a n d i u t a h a d n g lgi t a FDI. N g h i e n cau da chi ra r ^ n g
"nhdn td" hd'p tbu" a n h h a d n g de'n k h a ndng thu hadng lgi ich t a FDI cua qud'c gia n h d n dau ta. K i t qua ndy cd t h e ldm s a n g td hon moi quan hg giaa FDI vd t a n g t r a d n g , dong thdi cho thd'y t d m quan t r g n g cua ye'u td' cha't lagng t h i che' vd sg on dinh cua moi t r a d n g kinh doanh khi d d n h gia t a c ddng cua FDI.
Ngodi ra, khi chaa dga vdo md h i n h cdc big'n taong tdc, dnh h a d n g cua FDI Ien EG ludn daong vd cd y nghia, tuy nhign y nghia cua
he scT ndy da bi t r i e t tidu khi cdc bie'n taong tdc dagc t h g m vdo, dieu dd cd nghia r d n g cde nadc dang p h d t t r i l n chi cd t h i thg hadng dagc lgi ieh tit FDI nd'u cai t h i e n dagc mdi t r a d n g t h e ehg' vd gia dagc on dinh vi md. Tuy nhign, nghien cau ndy chaa cho tha'y hieu a n g lan tda vd co che' truyen ddn t h o n g qua tich luy vd'n, dau mdi Id ca ehg' bi tac ddng bdi do ba't on vi md, cung n h a mdi t r a d n g the chg' kem. Bdi vig't chi ra r d n g du Id qua co che' ndo di chang n a a thi hieu ang t i n g t h e ciia FDI Ign t d n g t r a d n g se k h d n g t h i ton t a i ng'u thig'u n h a n g bade tie'n trong va'n d l cai each the chg' vd mdi t r a d n g kinh td' vi md"
T a i l i ^ u t h a m k h a o
1 Acemoglu & Johnson (2005), Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms volatility, crises and growth Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 50, Issue 1, January 2003, pp. 49-123
2 Adams, S. (2009). Foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Xfrica. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 939-949.
3. Alfaro, L„ Chv^a, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S„ & Sayek, S. (2010). Does foreign direct investment promote growth? Exploring the role of financial markets on linkages. Journal of Development Economics, 91(2), pp. 242-256,
4. Alfaro, L,, Kalemli-Ozcan. S., & Sayek, S (2009) Foreign direct investment, productivity and financial development The World Economy, 32a). pp 111-135.
5. Alguaeil, M , Cuadros, A , & Orts, V (2002), Foreign direct investment, exports and domestic performance in Mexico A causality analysis. Economics Letters, 77. pp.371-376
6 Alguaeil. M.. Cuadros, A.. & Orts. V. (2004) Openness and Growth' Re-Examining Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Output Linkages in Latin America. The Journal of Development Studies, Volume 40, Issue 4, pp. 167 - 192.
7. Alguaeil, M., Cuadros, A . & Orts, V (2011). Inward FDI and growth: The role of macroeconomic and institutional environment.
Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 33, Issue 3, May-June 2011. pp. 481-496
8. Balasubramanyam, V. N,. Salisu. M,, & Sapsford. D. (19991. Foreign direct investment as an engine of growth The Journal of International Trade vd Economic Development, 8, pp 27-40
9 Bengoa, M,, & Sanchez-Robles, B. (2005) Policy shocks as a source of endogenous growth Journal of Policy Modelling, 27, pp 249-261,
10. BlomslKim, M , & Kokko, A. 11998). Multinational corporations and spillovers. Journal of Economic Surveys, 12, pp.
247-277.
11. Blomslrtim. M , & Wolf. E. (1994) Multinational Corporations and Productivity Convergence in VIcxiro In W Baumol.
R Nelson. & E. Wolf (Eds ). Convergence of Productivity: Cross-Xationa) Studies and Historical Evidence {pp. 263-284).
Oxford vfi New York. Oxford University Press
12. Hlomslr«m. M , Globerman, S , & Kokko, A. (2001). The determinants of host country spillovers from foreign direct investment. In N, Pain (Ed ), Inward investmenl, technological change and growth: The impact of multinational corporatioiiK on the UK economy, London: Palgrave.
13. Carkovic. M., & Levine, R (2005). Does foreign investment accelerate economic growth^ In T. H, Moran, E M. Graham, &.
M BloTTTilrOm (Eds ), Does FDI promote development? (pp 195-220), Washington, D C • Institute for International Economics 14. Demekas, D , Horvith. B., Ribakova, E , & Wu. Y. (2007), Foreign direct investment in European transition economies The role of policies Journal of Comparative Economics, 35(2). pp 369-386.
Congnglx n Q d n H d n g B M So 1U2*Thang 9/2014 l f i ]
> » » NUmtN(;UU IKAUUUI
15. Easterly. W. (2005) National policies and economic growth: A reappraisal. Handbook of economic growth (Chapter 15) G6rg. H., & Greenaway, D. (2004) Much Ado about nothing? Do domestic firms really benefit fi^m foreign direct investment?
World Bank Research Observer, 19(2), pp. 171-197.
16 Hermes, N., & Lensink. (2003). Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Studies, 40(1), pp. 142-163.
17 Herzer, D., Klasen, S., & Nowak-Lehmann, F, <200S). In search of FDI-Ied growth in developing countries: The way forward. Economic Modelling, 25, pp. 793-810.
18. Holtz-Eakin, D.. Newey, W. & Rosen, H. S. (1988), Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica, Vol, 56, No 6, November 1988. pp. 1371-1395
19. Li, X.. & Liu. X, (2004). Foreign direct investment and economic growth. An increasingly endogenous relationship. World Development, 33, pp 393-407.
20. Miao Wang & Wong Sunny, M C. (2011). FDI. Education, and Economic Growth. Quality Matters. Atlantic Economic Journal, Volume 39. Issue 2 , pp. 103-115
21. Pr(jfer. P., & Tondl, G. (2008). The FDI-growth nexus m Latin America: The role of source countries and local conditions.
Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research Discussion Paper, n° 61
22. Rodrili, D„ Subramanian. A„ & Trebbi. F (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9. pp. 131-165.
Thong tin tac gia:
(*) TS, Nguyin Khdc Quoc Bdo hitn dang cong tdc tai Khoa Tdi Chink, TrUdng Bai hoc Kinh te TP.HCM.
Link viic nghidn ciXu chinh- Tdi chinh qu^c tg, Qudn tri riii ro tdi chinh vd Tdi chinh cdng ty da qud'c gia Cdc nghien ciiu dtigc cdng bd trSn cdc tap chi trong nUdc: Tap chi Phdt tnen Kinh te. Tap chi Cdng ngh? Ngdn hdng. Tap chi Phdt tnen vd Hgi nhdp; td'ng cong 25 bdi
Email, [email protected].
NGAY
1 2 3 4 5 6 3 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 BINH QUAN
Tren tlii CrUdng hen ngan h5ng THANG
7 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21.246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246
2S
21,246 21.246
TILING
21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,2*6 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246
TY GlA BINH QUAN CUA VND Tat NHTMCP Ngoai tliirong TH.ANG Gia mua
21,300 21,290 21,270 21,270 21,270 21,270 21,260 21.240 21,225 21,190 21,150 21,150 21,150 21,180 21,180 21.212
Gia ban 21,560 21,350 21,330 21,320 21,320 21,320 21.310 21,290 21,275 21,240 21,200 21,200 21,200 21,230 21,230 21,263
THANG 8 Gia mua 21,200 21,200 21,200 21,200 21,190 21,200 21,190 21,185 21,185 21,185 21,180 21,180 21,180 21,180 21,185 21,183
Gia ban 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,250 21,240 21,250 21,250 21,235 21,235 21,235 21.230 21,230 21,230 21,230 21,235 21,233
VA USD T H A N G 7 + 8/2014
NGAY
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 BINH QUAN
Trin thi tmfrng lien ngan h i n g THANG
7 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21.246
TH.4NG 8 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246 21,246
21,24«
Tfli NHTMCP Ngoai thuang THANG
7 Gia mua
21,180 21,180 21,195 21,195 21,195 21,185 21,190 21,210 21,210 21,210 21,210 21,210 21,200 21,205 21,205 21,205 21,212
Gli bSn 21,230 21,230 21,245 21,245 21,245 21,235 21,240 21,260 21,260 21,260 21,260 21,260 21,250 21,255 21,255 21,255 21,263
THANG 8 Gia mua 21,185 21,185 21,185 21,180 21,170 21,175 21.175 21,175 21,175 21.180 21,185 21,170 21,170 21,170 21,170 21.170 21,183
Gia ban 21,235 21,235 21,235 21,230 21,220 21,225 21,225 21,225 21,225 21,230 21,235 21,220 21,220 21,220 21,220 21,220 21,233
Trfcfng Lao
m coTKincihi, n g s n h a n g
,«'102 •Thang 9/2014
