TAP CHJ CONG THIfdNG
DANH GIA NHAN TO
TAC DONG DEN PHAT TRIEN CHO VAY DOANH NGHIEP Vl/A VA NHO CUA NGAN HANG THlJCfNG MAI CO PHAN PHAT TRIEN THANH PHO HO CHI MINH
- CHI NHANH DAK LAK
• THAI THANH HA - NGUYEN QUANG H U N G
TOM TAT:
Nghien edu thue hien tren cac doanh nghidp vda va nhd (DNVVN) dia ban tinh Dak Lak, nham lam sang td nhan to nao dUdc ngan hang quan tdm vd co anh hddng manh nhd't de'n quyd't dinh phat tnen cho vay dd'i vdi cac DNVVN tai tinh Ddk Ldk. Ke't qud td phan tieh cho tha'y:
Ldi nhudn, Tong tai san, Ty le tai san the' chap/ldng tai sdn la cac nhan td ddpc ngan hang quan tdm va cd dnh hddng manh nha't den quye't dinh phai trien cho vay dd'i vdi eac DNVVN tai tinh Dak Lak.
Tiif khoa: Ngdn hang IhdPng mai cd phan, cho vay, doanh nghiep nhd va vffa, nhan td tae ddng, HD Bank.
1. Mo^dau
Trong qua trinh bid'n ddi, td do hda va ed phan hda d Viet Nam, cdc doanh nghiep vda va nhd ddng mpt vai trd quan trong, ddpc ehinh quydn vd xd hpi tbda nhan ca ve ly luan va thffc tidn [1; 2;
3]. Theo Sach trang ve DNVVN do Bp Ke hoaeh va Dau td vffa mdi cdng bo', loai hinh doanh nghiep nay ed tam quan trpng lo Idn vi giff vai trd quan trpng trong nen kinh te va eac doanh nghidp vffa va nho thudng chie'm ly Id cao trdn tdng so' doanh nghidp cd nddc [18]. Tai Viet Nam, cbi xet cdc doanh nghidp cd dang ky, ty le nay la tren 97%.
DNVVN ddng gop tdi 40% GDP cd nddc va sd
dung 50% Ide lUPng todn nen kinh td' trong nifdc [18]. Dd'i vdi cac dia phddng tai Tdy Nguyen, DNVVN la tru cdt cua kinh te dia phddng, trong do CO cd tinh Dak Ldk [19].
Viet Nam dat muc lieu to'c dp ldng trddng GDP binh quan 7 - 8%/nam [15; 17]. Vdi muc tidu nhd vay, vide phat trien cho vay ngan hang gid vai trd cde ky quan trpng [10;11;12]. Nhidm vu do dddc cac ngan hang quan triet day du vdi trdch nhiem cao. Trong bd'i cdnh dd, viec phat trien eho vay eua ngdn hang se gan lien vdi quyet dinh cua ngan hang cd cho DNVVN dddc phep vay vd'n, hay khdng ddpc phep vay vd'n cua ngan
266 So 22^ Thang 12/2019
TAI CHiNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
hang [16]. Ngdn hdng ThUPng mai Cd phan Phat tridn thanh phd' Hd Chi Minh - Chi nhanh Ddk Ldk (HDB Chi nhanh Dak Lak) la mdt chi nhdnh cua HDB kinh doanh tren dia bdn mdt tinh vung ddng bdo thidu so', dia hinh chia cat vdi didu kien kmh te - xa hdi co nhieu khd khan [20]. Viec tang trddng ddnd edn cd nhffng mdt han che'nhd't dinh, chua phat huy dddc ldi the' canh tranh, thi phan cho vay chid'm ty trpng thd'p. Cd the thd'y, ve ngan han cung nhd dai ban, vide phat tnen eho vay luon la muc lieu hang dau eua HDB Chi nhanh Dak Lak, dac biet Id dd'i vdi nhdm khdch hang DNVVN , VI day la nhdm khach hang day lidm ndng tai dia bdn linh Ddk Ldk [19].
Nghien cdu nay thUc hidn tren eac DNVVN tren dia bdn tinh Ddk Ldk nham lam sdng to nhan td'nao cd dnh hudng dd'n quye't dmh cho vay vd'n cua doanh nghiep. Thdi diem thu thdp so' lieu vao dau quy 4 nam 2019. Day la thdi didm thich hdp vi cdc hoat ddng kinh doanh cua cdc DNVVN da va dang hoat dong dn dinh, khdng chiu tac ddng do ydu to' thdi vu vd doanh thu nhd thdi didm cud'i nam. Sd'lidu dddc thife hien dUa trdn cde bdo cao thuye't minh vay vd'n ma cac DNVVN nay thUc hien va ddpc Idu giff tai HDB Chi nhanh Dak Lak.
Tidu chuan vd quy dinh ve DNVVN dUde dffa tren Nghi dinh sd 39/2018/ND-CP quy dinh chi tie't mdt sddieu cua Luat Hd trp doanh nghiep vffa va nhd va Quye't dinh sd 27/2018/QD-TTg ngay 16/7/2018 do Thu tffdng Chinh phii ban hanh.
2, Phddng phap nghidn cu'u
Ve tieu ehi Ida chpn doanh nghidp cho nghien cdu dua vao Nghi dinh so 37-NDCP dUdc ban hanh nam 2018. Nghi dinh nay neu rd, cac DNVVN cd .so Iddng lao ddng td 1-300 ngddi hoac long tdi san dddi 100 ty ddng. Trong thifc td', cd nhffng DNVVN cd sd' lao ddng nhd hPn 300 ngudi, nhUng Iai ed tai sdn Idn hPn quy dinh.
Them nda trong thdc td', Iai cd cdc DNVVN cd ldi san doanh nghiep il hdn quy dinh nhdng so' lao ddng ldn hdn 300 ngUdi. Vi vay, de tranh vide khdng hpi du tieu ehi nhU trdn, trong td'ng sd' 160 DNNVV dddc Ida chon ddu dap dng dUdc ea 2 tieu chi do Nghi dinh eiia Chinh phu va Quye't dinh cua Thu tddng Chinh phu ban hanh.
Bang 1. Dgc diem cac doanh nghiep vL/o va nho trong m6u nghien cifu
Q u y e t d|nh vay von
C h o v a y v o n C h u a c h o v a y 75/19 S o n a m h o a t d f i n g
DU6i 3 n a m Tren 3 d e n 9 nam Tren 9 n a m long Lao d$ng
D i i d i 2 0 lao d o n g Tren 2 0 den 2 0 0 Tren 2 0 0 Tortg Q|a ban hoat ddng
T r o n g t i n h
N g o a i t i n h ke ca xuat k h a u TB'ng
N 90 70 160
N 40 80 40 (60 N 40 90 30 ISO
N 80 80 160
%
67%
43%
100%
%
25%
50%
25%
100%
%
25%
57%
18%
100%
%
60%
60%
100%
Nguoiv HDB
So Mu DNVVN tgi Chi nhdnh Dak Lak
Nghidn cdu ndy dddc thdc hien trdn 160 DNVVN ed hd sd vay vd'n gdi tai HDB Chi nhdnh Ddk Ldk. Cdc DNVVN ndy dd va dang boat ddng tren dia ban linh Ddk Ldk. Danh sach cdc DNVVN vay vd'n trong dieu ira dddc lay trong cd sd dff lieu cua Phdng khach hang doanh nghiep vd cho vay vd'n tai HDB Chi nhdnh Ddk Ldk va dddc Ida chpn ngau nhien de phan tich. Sd' lieu dieu tra dddc Id'y tai cac bao cao tai ehinh, bdo cao ke't qud kinh doanh cua DNVVN theo trong 3 quy lien tiep tinh dd'n thdng 11 nam 2019, do DNVVN gdi tdi bd phan tham dinh du an vay vd'n cua HDB Chi nhanh Dak Lak |20|. Qua trinh
TAP CHi CONG THIflfNG
phdn tieh sd lieu tff eac bdo cdo tai ehinh nay eho thd'y dac diem cua ede DNVVN vay vd'n tai HDB Chi nhanh Dak Ldk la phia hdp vdi cae lidu chi theo nhd quy dinh eua Nhd nUdc nhd tai Bdng I.
Do cae DNVVN tren dia ban linh Dak Ldk deu hoan thanh cae tai san the'chd'p ndn nghien edu nay khdng trinh bay trong Bang 1. Md hinh hdi quy binary logistic cung chi thieh hpp vdi bid'n so' phu thudc nhi phan, nen viec phan loai nhu trdn de sddung trong qud trinh phan tieh la hoan loan hdply [8;9].
3. Kd't qua nghidn cihi
De bid't dUde anh hudng eua tffng nhdn to' tdi quyd't dinh cho vay vd'n eua ngan hdng dd'i vdi cdc DNVVN trdn dia ban rinh Dak Ldk, nghidn edu nay sd dung phan tieh hdi quy Logistic [7;91.
PhUdng phap phan tich ndy cd nhidu diem Uu vidt hdn cac phUPng phap khac, bdi vl phddng phap nay ed the tan dung dddc nhdng Uu didm cua
phUdng phap phan tieh phan ldp (discriminant analysis) vffa tan dung dUde nhffng Uu diem cua phddng phap phdn tich hdi quy tddng quan, khi ma bie'n doc lap cua phddng phdp hdi quy logistic lai ia mdt bid'n nhi phan binary chd khong phai la mot bid'n so'hoe (numerical) [5;9].
Sd dung thd'ng kd T-Test ddc lap de kiem tra gid tri trung binh ve tdi sdn, ve lao ddng va doanh thu eua DNVVN 2 nhdm dddc vay va khdng dffdc vay eho tha'y mdc y nghia thd'ng kd 2 chieu dat mdc y nghia la 0,000. Do vay, so' Iddng phan bd eua 2 nhdm DNVVN nhd da neu tren la hPp Iy, vl vay 2 nhdm DNVVN nay dddc sd dung de kidm dinh, danh gia vide quye't dinh phat trien cho vay eua HDB Chi nhanh Dak Lak [20].
Sd dung phan mem SPSS 20, ke't qua phan tich hdi quy logistics do'i vdi 8 bie'n sd'dau vao cua cac DNVVN vay vd'n tin dung lai tinh Dak Lak ddpc the hien d Bang 2. Cac bid'n sd ddc ldp
Bang 2. Phan tich hoi qui ladng quan logistic - tac dong cua cdc yeu td \ tdi quyet djnh cho vay tgi HDB Chi nhdnh Ddk Ldk
Bien so Xi (Quy mo lao dong) X2 (Loi nhuan) X3 (Tai san CO dmh) X4 (Tai san luu ddng) X5 (Tong tai san)
Xg (Ty le Tai san the chapn'ong tai san) X7 (Ty suat nO/chu s6 hOu) Xg (Thdi gian tap'hua'n, td'ng sdtuan) He so ag
2-log likelihood Cox & Snell R Square Nagelkerde R Square
S.Beta 0,021 0,32"
3,55 -0,23 3,66*
1,02*
2,16 2,15 -0,206 169,16 0,632 0,699
S.E.
0,52 0,67 0,68 0,31 0,29 0,62 0,61 0,52 1,62
Wald statistics 0,55 0,13 15,12 2,33 0,018 11,5 3,36 3,69 0,05
Sig.
0,306 0,001 0,06 0,054 0,046 0,05 0,088 0,066 0,88
Ghi chu: * Mdc y nghTa thdng ke 0,05 ^ * Miic y nghia thong ke 0.01 Bie'n phu thuoc: Cho vay = 1; Khong cho vay = 0
268 So 22-Thang 12/2019
TAI CHINH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
dau vao eua phUdng trinh hdi quy logistic gdm cd cac yeu to' nhd: Quy md vay vd'n, Ldi nhuan doanh nghidp; Gid tri lai san cd' dinh; Gid tri tai san Idu ddng; Gid tri tdng tai san; Ty Id tdi sdn thd cha'p/tdng ldi san; Ty sud'l nd hidn hanh/vd'n chu sd hffu; Thdi gian tap hua'n luy tid'n tinh bang tuan cho de'n thdi didm ndp ddn vay vd'n tai ngdn hang. Cu Ihd: Bid'n sd'X2 (Ldi nhuan) cd he so' Be la trong md hinh hdi quy logistic la 0,32 vdi mdc y nghia thd'ng ke la 0,001 la khd cao vd bid'n sd nay cd anh hudng dd'n quye't dinh eho vay vd'n cua HDB Chi nhanh Dak Lak. Tid'p dd'n la bie'n sdTong tai san X5 vdi hd so' Be ta la 3,56 vd mdc y nghia thd'ng ke la 0,45 nhd hdn 0,5. Bid'n sd X6 (Ty le tai san thd' chd'p/Tdng tai san) cd anh hddng theo chieu thudn de'n quyd't djnh cho vay vd'n cua HDB Chi nhanh Dak Ldk khi he so' Beta cua phUdng trinh logistic la 1,02 vdi mdc y nghia thdng ke la vda du 0,05. Cdc bid'n sd' cdn lai nhd Bie'n sd' XI (Quy md lao dong) ed dnh hffdng khdng nhieu den quyet dinh eho vay vd'n vdi he sd' Beta ia 0,021 nhUng khdng dat mdc y nghTa thd'ng kd vdi mdc y nghia thd'ng ke Id 0,306. Bie'n so' X3 (Tdi san cd' dinh) va X4 (Tai san Idu ddng); X7 (Ty sud'l nd/chu sd hffu) X8 (Thdi gian tdp hud'n, tdng so' luan) tddng td khdng cd anh hddng ddn quye't dinh cho vay vd'n cua HDB Chi nhdnh Dak Lak dd'i vdi DNVVN tren dia ban Ddk Lak.
Mo hinh hdi quy logistic ma nghien edu nay sd dung eho thd'y chi so' 2-Iog likelihood dat ldi gid tri 169,15 he sd' tddng quan Nagelkder R Square dat tdi 0,699, ke't hdp vdi cdc chi so' khde cho ta tha'y 69,9 % sd thay ddi cua md hinh da dddc giai thich td hdi qui logistic vd ddy Id mot he so' IUdng quan kha eao [4]. Cdc ke't qua kidm dinh thd'ng ke nay cho thd'y tinh chac chan cua mo hinh ma chung tdi sddung Irong phan tieh. Chi so'thdng ke phan dnh tinh ehinh xdc cua md hinh cho thd'y ly Id dd doan cua md hinh la khd cao, ldn tdi trdn 70% mdt lan nffa xdc nhan lai ket ludn dda ra. Kd't qua IhUc nghiem cua md hinh hdi quy logistic do SPSS thdc hien ddPc trinh bay d trdn cho tha'y rdng md hinh ma chung toi sd dung la hoan todn hdp iy vd cho kd't qua chac chan [6].
4. Ke't luan
Ke't qua td phan tich dmh Iddng d tren cho tha'y quy md lao ddng, tdi san cd' dinh vd ldi san !du ddng, ty suat tai san thd' chd'p trdn tdng so' lai san nd va thdi gian tap hua'n khdng phai la nhffng ye'u to' chu ye'u anh hddng de'n quyet dinh phat trien eho vay dd'i vdi eac DNVVN lai tinh Dak Lak. Trai lai, nhffng yd'u to'nhd: Ldinhuan, Tdng tai san, Ty Id tdi san the chap/tdng tdi sdn, mdi la cdc nhdn to' dupe ngdn hdng quan tdm va ed anh hudng manh nha't de'n quye't dinh phdt tridn cho vay do'i vdi cdc DNVVN lai linh Ddk Lak.
Ke't qud nghien cdu nay gid'ng nhieu vdi cac nghien cdu trUdc day chtng ban nhd cda Thanh va cdng sU (2016) [16]; cua Mare Covi/ling and Paul Westhead (2016) [15]; Haminton va Fox (1998) [17].Didunay eho thd'y, cac ngdn hang thUdng mai van difa vdo tidu chi truyen thd'ng de dda ra cdc quyd't dinh cho vay vd'n dd'i vdi cac DNVVN, khdng ehi d nddc ta, d tinh Dak Lak ma cdn d cac qud'c gia khac. Theo Bdo cdo Moi trudng kinh doanh 2018 cua Ngan hdng The gidi (WB), Chi sd tie'p can tin dung eua Viet Nam xe'p ihd hang 29 tren tdng sd' 190 qud'c gia dUPe khao sat, dat 75 diem trdn thang diem 100, tang 5 didm vd cai thidn 3 bdc so vdi ndm 2018.
Cd the nhan dinh rang, cac ngan hang thddng mai chua thffc sU "man ma" dd'i vdi khdch hang DNVVN, mdt phan do quy md vd hidu qud tin dung khdng cao, trong khi rui ro va chi phi hoat ddng eao [10]. Cae ngan hang thUPng mai ehUa cd cdc sdn pham - dich vu chuyen bidt cho nhdm khdch hang DNVVN, cdc sdn pham chda da dang, linh boat. Dac bidt, thu tue tin dung edn rddm ra, phdc tap, eung la mdt trong nhffng "rao can " khie'n cac ngan hang thddng mai chda Ihd gidi ngdn cho DNVVN [12].
Ve phia eac ngdn hdng thffdng mai cdn gap nhieu khd khan thach thdc khi cho DNVVN vay vd'n bdi viec thie'u tdi sdn dam bao, thdng tin kem minh bach, kha nang dap dng du dieu kien hd sP vay vd'n cdn han chd', thid'u phffdng dn kinh doanh kha thi, ed the la cac nhan to'dan den vide khd cho vay dda tren ddng lien. Ben eanh dd, DNVVN thddng ngai hodn thien thu tuc vay vd'n do thdi
TAP CHl GONG THIflfNt
quen, do thie'u thdng tin, thid'u cdnbd hieu bie't ve doanh. Vide cai thidn Chi sd tiep can tin dung tai chinh, ve thu tuc vay vd'n [1 ;3] dien ra trong bd'i canh Chinh phu ndi chung vd CAc chuydn gia tai chinh cho rang, tin dung Id Ngan hdng Nhd nUdc ndi rieng dang nd Idc tim ye'u id' ed't ldi cua mdt doanh nghidp Chinh sach nhidu gidi phdp cai thien mdi trddng kinh doanh, tin dung rdng md va nhieu hd trd sd giup cac tuy nhidn van chUa dap dng dUPc yeu cau do con doanh nghidp ydn tdm ddu td, san xua't, kinh nhidu vddng mac [18;19] •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Vo, T. T, T.C. Tran, V. D. Bui and D. C. Trinh 12011), 'Small and Medium Enterprises Access to Finance in Vietnam', inHarvie, C, S. Oum, andD. Narjoko (eds.). Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Access to Fmance in Selected East Asian Economies. ERIA Research Project Report 2010-14, Jakarta: ERIA. Pp 151-192.
2. Chinh phi (2018). "Quye't dinh so 27/2018/QD-TTg ban hdnh He thd'ng ngdnh kinhte Viet Nam".
3. Le Xudn Bd, Trdn Kim Hdo, Nguyen Hffu Tluing, 2006. Doanh nghiip vtia vd nho cua Viet Nam trong dieu ben hdi nhgp kinh lequdc te. Hd Ngi: Nhd xud't bdn Chinh tri qudc gia.
4. Mason R.&Lm D.& Marchal W.(2000). Staiisiical Techniques for Business and Economics, 10th Ed, McGraw - Hill International Edition.
5. GerardE. Dallal, Ph.D. "LogisticRegression". http-//www.tufts.edu/~gdallalAogislic hmi6.
6. Hair, Anderson Tatham, and Black etal "Multivariate Data Analysis" 5th Ed, Prentice Hall (2004).
7. CooperD &SchindlerP. "Business Research Metlwds". 7th Ed.McGraw-Hill International Edition 8. Nghi dinh so 39/2018/ND-CP ngdy 11/03/2018 cua Chinh phu ve quy dinh chi tie't mot sd dieu cda Ludt Ho tra doanh nghiep vita vd nho
9. Mason R &Lin D.& Marchal W.(2000). Statistical Techniques for Business and Economics, 10th Ed. McGraw - Hdi International Edition.
10. Nguyen Ddng Ddn, 2018. Tin dung - Ngdn hdng. TP. Ho Chi Minh: Nhd xudi bdn Thdng ke Tdi bdn ldn thii 3.
11. San N and Wolfe (2016). ' Determinants of Successful Access to Bank Loans by Vietnamese SMEs: New Evidence from the Red River Delta'. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce, April 2016, vol. 21, No. },pp 1-23.
12. Nguyen Minh Kieu, 2007 Tin dung vd Tham dinh tin dung ngdn hdng. TP. HCM: Nhd xudt bdn Tdi chinh.
14. Quy dinh sd 1627/2001/QD-NHNN cda Ngdn hdng Nhd nudc ngdy 31/12/2001 ve viec ban hdnh quy chi'cho vay cda to chiic tin dung doi vdi khdch hdng.
15. Marc Cowling and Paul Westhead (2016). 'Bank lending decisions arui small firms: Does size matter?
International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, Vol. 2 No. 2,1996, pp. 52-68.
16. Thanh V&Cuong N & Dung T& Chieu T (2016) 'Small and Medium Enterprises Access lo Finance in Vietnam'.
Chuang 6, Bdo cdo nghien cUu cua Viin Nghiin ciiu Qudn ly kinh le Trung UOng.
17. Robert T. Hamilton & Murk A Fox (1998). The financing preferences of small firm owners'. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, Vol. 4 No. 3,1998. pp. 239-248.
18. MPI (2019). Sdch trdng ve doanh nghiep Viet Nam. Nhd xud't bdn Thdng ke 2019.
19. Nien gidm Thong ke tlnh Ddc Lac (2019).
20. HD Bank (2018). Bdo cdo tong ket hoat ddng cua ngdn hdng HD Bank thdnh phd HCM chi nhdnh Ddc Ldc.
270 So 22-Thang 12/2019
TAI CHJNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
Ngay nhSn bai: 7/H/2019
Ngay phan bien danli gia va su'a chi}a: 17/11/2019 Ngay cha'p nhSn dang bai: 27/11/2019
Thong tin tdc gia:
1, PGS. TS. THAI THANH HA Trifdng Dai hoc Ngoai thUdng Ha Noi 2. N G U Y S N QUANG HlfNG
Hpc vien cao hoc, Trrft/ng Dai hpc T3y Nguyen
EVALUATING FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOANS FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISE BY HO CHI MINH CITY
DEVELOPMENT COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK -DAK LAK BRANCH
• Assoc. Prof. PhD. THAI THANH HA Foreign Trade University
• NGUYEN QUANG HUNG PhD's Student, Toy Nguyen University
ABSTRACT:
The study was conducted on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Dak Lak province, in order to clarify which factors are most interested in banks and have the strongest influence on loan development decisions for SMEs m Dak Lak province. The results from the analysis show that: Profit, Total assets. Mortgage / total assets ratio are the factors that and have the strongest influence on the loan development decision for SMEs in Dak Lak province.
Keywords: Joint stock commercial bank, loan, small and medium enterprises, impact factor, HD Bank.
