TAP CHJ CONG THtflfNG
TAC DQNG CUA NGANH LOGISTICS DEN TANG TRl/dNG KINH TE
TAI CAC NlJCfC ASEAN
• V6 TH! NGQC TRINH - LE VIET MANH - N G U Y I N BUI BA NGOC
TOM TAT:
Tac ddng cua nganh Logistics dd'n tang trffdng kinh td dang trd thanh tam didm nghien cffu thu hut dffdc sff quan tdm eua nhieu nha nghien effu (Wang et al., 2010). Bai vid't ndy xem xet tac ddng eua nganh Logistics de'n tang trffdng kinh te' sff dung phffdng phap Sai phdn GMM vdi tac dpng cd dinh cd trpng so' (weighted fixed effect D-GMM) dd d6c Iffdng md hinh dff lieu bang tai ede nffdc ASEAN trdng giai doan 2000 - 2017. Kd't qud nghien cffu hoan toan tffdng thich vdi ly thuye't va cac nghien cffu thffc nghidm trffdc: eac nhdm bien dai didn cho Logistics (gom
"Giao thdng van tdi" vd "Thdng tin - Vidn thdng") cd tac ddng tieh cffc va dang ke den tang trffdng kinh td' tai Idiu vffc nay, nha't la ITnh vffc "Thdng tin - Vidn thdng". Dieu nay ham y rang ASEAN nen ehu trpng dau tff vdd Imh vffc "Giao thdng van tai" va dac bidt tdp trung manh vao ITnh vffc 'Thdng tin - Vien thdng" de thuc d£y kinh te' tang trffdng.
Tiif khoa: D-GMM, ASEAN, logistics, tang trffdng kinh te.
1. Gidi thi^u
Trong bd'i canh hpi nhdp kinh td' todn cau hien nay, ngdnh Logistics dang trd thdnh ngdnh edng nghiep dffng dau cd ddng gdp quan trpng vao tang trffdng kinh te' (Hayaloglu, 2015). Dd la nganh thffc hien vide dieu phd'i va quan ly ddng ludn chuyen nguyen lieu va hang hda tff ndi san xuat dd'n ndi tieu thu, bao gdm cac hoat ddng phtie hdp nhff chuyen chd, Itfu giff va eung ffng vd cd lien quan de'n nhieu ITnh vffc nhff: giao thdng van tai, kho bai, hffu ehinh, vien thdng, cdng nghe thdng tin... Nganh Logistics boat ddng hidu qua se tao ra gia tri gdp phan thuc day hoat ddng sdn xua't vd tidu dting, tff dd thuc day tang trffdng kmh td'. Vi vay, tffdng tac giffa nganh Logistics va tang trffdng kinh td' thu hut dffdc sff quan tam Idn eua cac nha nghien cffu vd cae nhd hoach dinh chinh sach. Cd nhidu nghien cffu thffc nghiem ve Logistics trong kho tang hoc thuat vdi phan Idn kd't qua cho rang nganh Logistics hidu qua cd tde ddng tich cffc dang kd de'n tang trffdng kmh td' (Boopen, 2006; Yamaguchi, 2007; Kayode, 2013;
Ding, 2008; Roller, 2001; Madden and Savage,
2000; Sezer, 2017; Hayaluglo, 2015). Tuy nhien, edc nghidn effu ehu yd'uehitap trung vao tac ddng rieng re eua mdt ITnh vffe ndd do thupc nganh Logistics de'n tang trffdng kinh te, chang han nhtf anh hffdng cua ITnh vffc giao thdng van tai {Boopen, 2006; Yamaguchi, 2007; Kayode, 2013), hoae anh hffdng eua vidn thdng, thdng tin- truyen thdng (Ding, 2008; Roller, 2001; Madden and Savage, 2000). Bdn canh do, ede nghidn ciiu ve Logistics dffdc thffe hidn ehu ye'u hffdng ve cSc nffde phat trien (Sezer, 2017; Hayaluglo, 2015).
trong khi tai cac nffdc dang phat tridn thi chiia dffpe chu trpng, dac biet la tai cae nffdc chau A thupc khu vffc ASEAN.
Vdi muc tidu lam rd tac ddng cua nganh Logistics dd'i vdi ta ng trffdng kinh te' trong khu vtfc cac qud'c gia dang phdt trien vd cDng lam phong phii them so' Iffdng nghidn effu ve ITnh vffc nay trong kho tang hoe thuat, bdi nghien cffu nay kha"
sat tac ddng eua nganh Logistics de'n tang trifong kinh te tai khu vffe ASEAN su" dung phffdng ph^p ffdc Iffdng dff lieu bang ddng GMM trong giai doan 2000-2017.
146 So n -Thdng 6/2019
KINH TE
! 2. Ctf sd ly t huyet
Logistics dffdc cho la huyd't mach cua ndn kinh te giup eho hang hda Iffu thdng mdt edeh hidu qua, vi thd' ddng gdp ddng kd vdo tang trffdng kinh te' (Islam, 1995). Nhidu nghien cffu chi ra cac ddng cd thuc day kinh td' tang trffdng bao gdm dau tff eho tai sdn cd' dinh, cd sd ha tang edng edng, ddu tff eho giao thdng van tai vd vidn thdng, FDI, ehi tidu cdng eua ehinh phu, tang trffdng ddn sd'va cd ea'u dan sd', von con ngffdi, thffdng mai, va nghien cffu vd phdt trien (Madden va Savage 2000; Dinh et ak 2008; Chu, 2011). Hayaloglu P. (2015) phdn tich tae ddng eua phat trien nganh Logistics dd'n tang trffdng kinh te'trong giai doan 1995-2011 tai
^ edc nffdc phdt tridn thude khd'i OECD va ghi nhdn dau tff vao cd sd ha tang Logistics bao gdm giao thdng van tai va phat tridn vidn thdng - truyen
•" thdng dem lai sff ddng gdp vao tang trffdng kinh td' ,'• d cac nffdc OECD. Yamaguchi (2007) nghien cffu ," mdi quan he giffa hoat ddng van tdi bang dffdng
•* hdng khdng vd hidu qua kinh td' vi md tai Nhdt
^'"' Bdn giai doan 1995 - 2000 va phdt hien rang vide tid'p edn de ddng, nhanh chdng edc dich vu vdn tdi bang dffdng hang khdng lam tang dp hieu qua cua cdc hoat ddng kinh td' vT md tai qud'e gia ndy.
Wang, Y., & Wang, L. (2010) nghien cffu danh gia md'i quan he giffa nganh Logistics va tang trffdng
• kinh te' d Trung Qud'c trong giai doan tff nam 1997-2005. Ke't qua cho tha'y dau tff vdo nganh Logistics eua khu vffe FDI ed tde ddng dd'n tang trffdng kinh te' nhffng khac nhau trong tffng giai doan vd ddy eung Id nhdn td chinb thiie ddy kinh . te' Trung Qud'c. Tai cac nffdc dang phat trien,
Boopen (2006) nghien effu tac ddng cua ha tang giao thdng tdi tang trffdng kinh td' eho ede nffdc khu vffe can Sahara giai doan 1980 - 2000. Bdng cdc phffdng phdp hoi quy OLS va phan tieh dff lieu bang GMM, ke't qud ehi ra md'i tffdng quan thuan '; va nhd'n manh vai trd cua dau tff ha tang giao '" thdng vd tang trffdng kinh td'. Tai chdu A,
•"' Gunasekera et al. (2008) tim ra md'i quan he giffa phat tridn dffdng cao td'c dd'i vdi tang trffdng kinh ' td' tai Sri Lanka. Nghien cffu nay cho rang cai
• thidn cd sd ha tang giao thdng se lam tang hieu
^ qua giao nhdn hang hda bang he thd'ng dffdng ''' dffdng bp cao td'c nhd vdo mang Iffdi giao thdng '"' thdng thoang hdn.
'- Ngoai ra, mdi hen he giffa phdt trien Logistics
!'• vd tang trffdng kinh te' dffdc tim thay trong ede
• nghien effu thffc nghiem la hai chieu. Ben canh tac
ddng tich cffe eua Logistics dd'n tang trffdng kinh te' thi ngffdc lai kinh te' tang trffdng lai tbiic day sff phat tridn eua Logistics. Reza (2013) va Lean (2014) chi ra vai trd quan trpng cua Logistics trong vide hd trd vd duy tri tang trffdng kinh td'. Ngffdc lai, tang trffdng kinh te cd tac dpng keo theo nhu elu dd'i vdi ngdnh Logistics, nd ddi hdi sff phdt trien cua cd sd ha tang giao thdng de theo kip dd tang trffdng eua nen kinh td'.
Tdm lai, phan Idn edc nghien cffu deu nhd't qudn rang thdng tin - vidn thdng, van tai dffdng hang khdng, van tai dffdng bp va dau tff cho ha tang giad thdng cd tdc dpng tich effe dd'n tang trffdng kinh te'.
Tuy nhien, tde ddng cua giao thdng dffdng sdt dd'n tang trffdng kinh te' la khdng rd rang tai eac nffdc phdt trien. Ben canh do, ede nghidn cffu cung tim tha'y mdi quan he 2 chieu giffa logistics va tang trffdng kinh te. Mdt mat. Logistics la nen tang cho tang trffdng kinh te'; mat khdc, td'c dp phdt trien kinh te edng nhanh ddi hdi td'c dd phat trien nhanh chdng cua Logistics.
3. Tdng quan vd tang trffdng kinh te' va hogt dOng logistics cac nffdc khu vffc asean
3.1. Tdng trffdng kinh te cda khu vtfc ASEAN trong giai doan 2000-2017
Tang trffdng kinh te' binh quan cua ca khu vffc ASEAN trong giai doan tff nam 2000-2017 dffdc bieu dien trong Hinh 3.1.
Nhin ehung, tang trffdng kinh td'binh qudn eua ca khu vffc cd nhieu bie'n ddng va cd the chia thdnh 3 giai doan. Thff nhat la thdi ki tang trffdng kmh td' trffdc thdi diem khung hoang nam 2008- 2009. Nhin ehung, GDP cua ea khu vffc trong thdi ki nay dat td'c dp tang trffdng khd td't; tang trffdng binh qudn cho ea giai doan dat mffc 6.57%/nam.
Thff hai Id thdi ky khung hoang kinh te 2008-2009 da lam cho tang trffdng khu vffc nay bi anh hffdng nang nd, tff td'c dp tang trffdng 7.09%/nam (2007) giam xud'ng edn 4.70%/nam (2008) vd cham day d mffc 2.47%/nam (2009). Thff ba la thdi ki tdng trffdng kinh te' dffdc phuc hdi sau khung hoang kinh te tff nam 2010-2017, tang trffdng kinh td blnh quan eua ed giai doan nay dat 5.47%/nam.
Tinh trong ed giai doan tff nam 2000 - 2017, tang trffdng kinh te'trung binh dat mffc 5.75%/nam, cao hdn nhieu so vdi mffc tang trffdng chi 1.83% cua OECD. Nguyen nhdn cd the la hau hd't ede nffdc trong khu vffc ASEAN la nhu'ng nffde dang phat trien, vi the'cd tdc dp tang trffdng eao hdn so vdi cdc nffdc phat trien.
So 11 -Thang 6/2019 147
TAP CHi CONG THlftfNG
Htnh 1: Tang tnfdng kinh te binh quan cua ca khu vtfc ASEAN tCt nam 2000-2017 OOn vj: %
# C?^'' Cs^"^ CS^" # C?^"" G ^ CS^ # * G ^ Qi^^ Cs^^ ? > ^ G^'' ^"^^ ^^'^ Ci^^ 0^''
3.2. Tong quan ve Logistics cua cdc nffdc thugc khu vtfc ASEAN
Luu luang hdng hda van cliuyin bdng dudng bien cua khu vUc ASEAN
Lffu Iffdng h a n g h d a v d n c h u y e n b a n g dffdng b i e n n d i dia vd qud'c t e ' c u a khu vffc A S E A N tff n a m 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 7 (Hinh 3.2) ed t h e dffdc chia thdnh 2 giai d o a n . Giai d o a n thff nha't tff n a m 2004 - 2014 vdi xu hffdng e h u n g e u a lffu Iffdng h d n g h d a t a n g nhffng k h d n g lidn tuc qua e d e n a m , Itfu Iffdng t a n g trung binh tff 1.451 tridu td'n vao n a m 2004 len de'n 2,126 tridu td'n v d o n a m 2 0 1 4 , t a n g 4 6 . 5 % . Giai d o a n thff h a i tff n a m 2 0 1 4 - 2 0 1 7 , b a t d a u b a n g sff g i a m m a n h v d o n a m 2 0 1 5 va sau dd tang trffdng trd lai v a o 2 n a m sau.
Nguon: Tong hgp li( sd Heu ciia Ngdn hdng Thi gidi
Chieu ddi dUdng bg cdc nUdc ASEAN t^nam 2008-2017
C h i e u d d i dffdng bd khu vffc A S E A N tii nam 2 0 0 8 d e n n a m 2 0 1 7 dffdc m d ta trong Hinh 3.3 c h o tha'y c a c nffde A S E A N l u d n t d p trung diuttf vd m d r d n g c d s d h a t a n g dffdng b d . Nam 2008, t d n g c h i e u d d i dffdng bd d a t k h o a n g 1,2 trieukm va t a n g l e n g a n 1,7 t r i e u k m v d o n a m 2017.
C h i e u d d i dffdng bd e d e nffde A S E A N tit nam 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 7 l u d n t a n g k h a d e u , t a n g trffdng trung blnh d a o d p n g tff 3 - 4 % / n a m , m p t eon s d thtfc stf d d n g kd so v d i k h u vffc c a c tidu vffdng qudc Anh ( c a o nhd't e h i 0 . 2 6 % ) ( C d q u a n V a n tai chdu Au, 2 0 1 7 ) . Sff m d r d n g v e c h i d u d a i dffdng bd tai khu vffe A S E A N c h o tha'y h o a t d d n g v a n chuydn
Hinh 2: LIAJ Iifdng hang hoc van chuyen bang difdng bien ngi dja va qud'c fe cua khu v i / c ASEAN tCf nam 2004-2017
Ban vi: Tneu ton
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 - Liru lugng hang hoa van chuyen bang dirang bien di qudc tS - Liru luang hang hoa van chuyen bang ducmg bien trong noi dia
Ngudn: The ASEAN year. booi
148 So 11 -Thdng 6/2019
KINHTE
Hinh 3: Chieu dai dUdng bg khu vi/c ASEAN ta ndm 2008 den ndm 2017
L800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1.000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Nguon: Tong hgp td so heu cua Ngdn hdng Thi'gidi vd ASEAN year book
trong nganh Logistics cua khu vffc tie'p tuc phat trien trong tffdng lai.
So'ngUdi sffdung internet (% ddn sd) So ngffdi sff dung internet cdc nffdc thude khu vffc ASEAN giai doan tff ndm 2000-2017 dffdc the hien trong Hlnh 3.4. Cd the tha'y, sd ngffdi sff dung internet khdng ngffng gia tang nay, Td'c dd tang trffdng ve sd ngifdi sff dung internet cac nffdc trong khu vffe eao nhffng lai khdng ddng deu giffa cdc qud'c gia, trong do Brunei va Singapore ddn dau khu vffc vdi ty Id 94,9% va 84,4% nam 2017, Myanmar
vd Lao tha'p nha't khu vffe vdi ty Id dat 30,7% va 25,5%. Dieu nay eung phan anh thffc trang ve khodng cdch phat trien giffa cdc nffdc trong khu vffc, nha't la ttong bd'i eanh edng nghidp 4.0, sff ban che ve mang internet la can rao can Idn dd'i vdi sff phdt trien nganh Logistics va tang trffdng kinh te.
4. Phffdng phap nghidn ciJu va ngudn di? li^u 4.1. Mo hinh nghien cffu
Md hlnh sff dung dff lieu bang de phdn tieh tde ddngcuaLogisticsddn tang trffdng kinh te'tai cac qudc gia khu vffc ASEAN cd dang nhff sau:
Hinh 4: Ty le ngtfdi sCf dung internet cac nifdc khu vtfc ASEAN giai dogn 2000-2017
100.0 ^^•'^ 84.4 60.0
40.0 20.0 OO
. J ^"-1 52.9 49.6
34.0 32.3 3 0 "
25.5
y / A^ / •/ / / # / #
* ^ / / / ^* - i ^ c / / / /
• 2000 • 200112002 • 2003 • 2004 • 200512006 • 200712008
• 2009 •2010 •2011 "2012 2013 2014*2015 2016 2017
Nguon: Tong hgp tit sd lieu cua Ngdn hdng Thi gidi vd ASEAN year book
So 11 -Thdng 6/2019 149
TAP GHi CONG THIfdNG
GDPpc,, = C + p|GDPpc,,-l -I- (JjROAD,, + P3SEA + P4AIR,, + PsMCS^,, " (Eq 1) -I- PgINT,, + P7GFCE,, -I- pgEMPn + v„
Trong dd:
- GDPpc,^: GDP binh quan dau ngffdi (USD hien hanh) cua qud'c gia i tai nam t,
- GDPpc,,_,: Bie'n trd bdc I eua GDPpci,t (tang trffdng kinh td' nam trffde) dai dien cho sff tich trff vd'n vat chd't, vi vay ed anh hffdng de'n tang trffdng kinh te eua nam hien tai.
- ROAD],: Chieu dai dffdng bd eao td'c tai mdi qud'c gia (km) cua qud'e gia 1 tai nam t;
- SEA|j: Lffdng container qud'c te' di qua ede cang bien eua qud'c gia i trong nam t (nghin TEUs);
- AIRj,: Lffdng hang hda dffdc van ehuydn bang dffdng hang khdng cua qudc gia i trong nam t (trieu td'n-km);
- MCSi,: Sd thud bao dien thoai di dpng (tinh tren 100 ngffdi) cua qud'e gia i tai nam t;
- INT,,: Sd Iffdng ngffdi sff dung internet (%
tren tdng dan sd) eua qud'e gia 1 tai nam t;
- GFCEji: Chi tidu cua chinh phu cho hang hda va dieh vu cud'i cung (% trdn GDP) cua qud'c gia 1 tai nam t;
- BMP, t: Ti Id tham gia Iffc Iffdng lao ddng tinh trdn dan so (% tren tdng dan sd') eua qud'c gia i tai nam t.
Cd nhieu phffdng phdp dd ffdc Iffdng md hinh Eq.l: hdi quy OLS, hdi quy vdi bie'n gia (LSDV),
\i6c Iffdng ham hdp ly cffc dai (MLE), va ffdc Iffdng GMM. Dinh et al. (2008) va Chu (2011) sff dung 3 phffdng phdp de ffdc lffdng cho md hinh gdm OLS, LSDV va GMM. Hai tae gia deu thdng nha't rdng phffdng phdp GMM dem lai ke't qua td't nhd't, cd the khdc phuc va'n de ndi smh do md'i quan he hai chieu giffa bid'n phu thupc vd ede bid'n giai thich.
Bai nghidn cffu nay sff dung phffdng phap GMM vdi tdc ddng ed' dinh de ffdc Iffdng md hinh Eq.l cd tinh de'n sff khdc bidt giffa cdc qud'c gia.
Khac vdi ede nghien cffu tren, chung tdi suf dung phffdng phdp GMM cd trpng sd' (Cross section weighted GMM) nhdm khae phuc hidn tffdng phffdng sai sai so thay ddi (HET) ed the xay ra dd dff lieu cua cac qud'c gia cd sff phan tan Idn, ,sff chenh lech khoang cdch phat trien giffa eac qud'e gia trong cung khu vffe cd the tao ra cdc quan sat di bidt (outliers).
Mdt sd kiem dinh can thie't dffdc thffe hidn
i 150 S o i l -Thdng 6/2019
nham bao dam tinh hdp Id cua kd't qua nghienciJy bao gdm: (1) Kiem djnh tinh dtifng ciia dff li6u^
kiem dinh ADF nham bao dam ke't qua irdc li/dn?
khdng phai la hdi quy gia mao; (2) Kiemdinlidj edng tuyd'n (tffdng quan cao giffa ede biendeclSpi bang nhan tif phdng dai phffdng sai (VIF);[3j Kidm dinh tff tffdng quan eua phan dff: dfingthon;
ke Q va Iffdc dd tff tffdng quan PACF.
4.2. Nguon dff liiu
Bai nghidn cffu sii dung dff Hdu thff capcocau true bang khdng can bang (unbalanced panel) bao gdm 10 qud'e gia ASEAN trong giai doantifnim 2000 de'n nam 2017. Ngudn dff heu dffpc ld'yti[\p hang The' gidi va tai lieu thd'ng ke cua ASEANic ASEAN stadstical yearbook). Giai doannghiencifi nay dffpe chon vl tinh sdn ed cua sd lieu,
5. Kd't qua nghien ciJu va thao lu$n 5.1. Thd'ng ke mo td vd ma trdn tid/ngqm Phan ndy md ta dac diem thd'ng k6 cuacsc bie'n trong md hinh nhdm xac dinh quy luatpliiii phd'i eua dii lieu, xem xet dff lieu cd tinhcliii phan tdn hay tap trung, cung nhff ddnh gia milt dp tffdng quan giffa cac bie'n trong md hlni..Cac dae didm thd'ng ke cua dff lieu cd lidnquandEi eac gid thie't cua md hinh ffdc Iffdng vl ai hffdng dd'n dp tin cdy va hieu qua eiiakelqiu ffdc Iffdng. Kd't qua thd'ng ke md ta dffdc diete d Bang I.
Nhin chung edc bie'n ed hd sd'phdn tan(lyle gffa phffdng sai va gia tri trung binh) kha Idn, thay dff Heu khdng tap trung va va c6dQ[^!
tan cao. Ben canh dd, cac bie'n cd chenh M giffa gid tri Idn nha't va nhd nhd't khd Idnchotoy dd'u hidu ede bie'n d'n ehffa ede gia tri ngoaiiii Mat khae, hau he't gia tri cua eac bien khdngiuJi theo quy ludt phan phd'i chua'n (he sdJarque-Bai cd y nghia thdng ke eao d mffc 1%).
Sd tffdng quan giffa cac bid'n ddc lap vdi fa phu thupc dffdc md ta bang ma trdn he so tW quan giffa ede bid'n trong Bang 2 nhff sau;
GDPpc cd tffdng quan thuan vd hfdngdoiao vdi cac bie'n doe lap gdm SEA, AIR, MCS,GFCE (gid tri he so' tffdng quan cap cao hdn 0.5).T'')' nhidn, GDPpc cd tffdng quan tha'p vdi cac bien"
md (gid tri he so' tffdng quan nhd hdn 0.4).^
Tffdng quan giffa edc bid'n ddc lap hau nW khdng cao (dffdi 0.6), ngoai trff bien AIRv^SU Dd dd, can Iffu y kidm dinh hidn tffdng da tpnj tuyd'n cua bie'n AIR va bie'n SEA khi danh gia 1^^
qua hdi quy.
KINH I E
4;
•It Bien GDPpc
%i ROAD
•' SEA AIR en INT
•1.1 '*'^^
* GFCE
" EMP 3lfa
So quan sat 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121
Bang 1.Thong Mean 12,476.20 92,209.26 7,644.97 1,740 29 35 60 91.51 12.04 66.30
ke m o to c u a m a u hoi quy Std.Dev.
16,649.02 108,659.00 9,874.00 2,317,17 26.01 46.47 6.16 7.37
Min 388.27 2,271 00
61.00 0.02 0.25 0.98 3.46 58.15
Max 57,714,30 421,535.00 33,869.00 7,981.25 94 87 176.03 26 48 84 22
Jarque-Bare (45.76)*
(22.95)*
(39.29)*
(53 4)*
(7.45)*
(8.65)*
(14.80)*
(19.55)*
i\k,<,, '*) dgi dien cho mdc y nghia 1%
Bang 2. Ma trqn tUdng quan cua cac bien trong mo hinh
M I M GDPPC '*'• ROAD
SEA - AIR
«.-. INT MCS . GFCE lUDiii EMP
GDPPC 1.00 -0 43 0.60 0.62 0.72 0.43 0.33 -0.30
ROAD
100 - O i l -0.18 -0.26 0.01 -0 20 0 05
SEA
1.00 0.86 0.69 0 53 -0.11 -0.20
AIR INT
1.00 0.65 0 36 -0.06 -0,24
1.00 0.71 0.33 -0.42
MCS
1.00 0.10 -0 02
GFCE
1.00 -0 45
EMP
1.00 Nguon: Tinh todn cua nhom tdc gia
Bdng 3. Ket qua kiem dinh nghiem ddn vj ADF (ADF Test)
dapi!
it*-
tttJiEi
; B J 5
of- 0,'-
'^'
l i i ' ' iSl^'
Ky hl$u Bien GDPpc
ROAD SEA AIR MCS
INT GFCE
EMP
B|cO (Level) 0.7 -1.24 3 05 0.66 3.01 2.81 1.89 0.81
Sal phan B$c 1 -2.06"
-2.35*
-1 68"
-2 48*
-2.27**
-4.46*
-3.08*
-1.52***
Chu thich: * cd y nghia thd'ng ki d mdc 1%, ** d mdc 5%. *** dmdc 10%
So 11 -Thang 6/2019 151
TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
GDPpe,, = C + p|GDPpCi,rl + P2ROAD,,,
+ P3SEA + P4AIR,, + P.,MCS„ (Eq.l) + p6lNT, t + P7GFCE,, + PgEMP, J + Vi,
Trong do:
- GDPpc,,: GDP binh qudn dau ngffdi (USD hien hanh) cua qud'c gia 1 tai nam t;
- GDPpc,,_,: Bid'n trd bde 1 cua GDPpci,t (tang trffdng kinh td' nam trffdc) dai dien cho sff tich trff vd'n vdt chd't, vi vdy cd dnh hffdng dd'n tang trffdng kinh te' cua nam hien tai.
- ROADj,: Chieu ddi dffdng bd cao td'c tai mdi qud'c gia (km) cua qud'c gia i tai nam t;
- SEAj,: Lffdng container qud'c te' di qua cae edng bien cua qud'c gia i trong nam t (nghin TEUs);
- AIR,,: Lffpng hang hda dffdc van chuyen bang dffdng hang khdng cua qudc gia i trong nam t (tridu td'n-km);
- MCS,,: So' thue bao dien thoai di dpng (tinh trdn 100 ngffdi) eua qud'c gia 1 tai nam t;
- INT,,: So' Iffdng ngffdi sff dung internet (%
tren tdng dan sd') cua qud'e gia i tai nam t;
- GFCE,,: Chi tidu eua chinh phu cho hdng hda vd dieh vu cud'i ciing (% tren GDP) cua qudc gia i tai nam t;
- EMP,,: Ti le tham gia Iffc Iffdng lao ddng tinh tren ddn sd' (% tren tdng dan so') cua qud'c gia i tai nam t.
Cd nhieu phffdng phdp dd ffdc Iffdng md hinh Eq.l: hdi quy OLS, hdi quy vdi bie'n gia (LSDV), ffdc Iffdng hdm hpp ly effe dai (MLE), vd ffdc Iffdng GMM. Dmh et al. (2008) vd Chu (2011) sff dung 3 phffdng phdp de ffdc lffdng cho md hinh gdm OLS, LSDV vd GMM. Hai tde gia deu thd'ng nha't rang phffdng phdp GMM dem lai ke't qua td't nhdt, ed ihd khae phuc vdn de noi sinh do md'i quan be hai chieu giffa bid'n phu thudc va cac bid'n giai thich
Bai nghidn cffu nay sff dung phffdng phap GMM vdi tdc ddng ed' dinh de ffdc lffdng md hinh Eq.l cd tinh de'n sff khdc bidt giffa cac qud'e gia.
Khde vdi cae nghien effu tren, chung tdi sff dung phffdng phdp GMM cd trpng so' (Cross section weighted GMM) nham khac phuc hien tffdng phffdng sai sai so' thay doi (HET) cd the xay ra do dff lieu eua edc qud'c gia cd sff phdn tan Idn, sff chenh Ideh khodng cdch phat tridn giffa cdc qudc gia trong ciing khu vffc cd the tao ra cac quan sat dl bidt (outliers).
Mdt so kiem dinh can thid't dffdc thffc hidn
nham bao dam tinh hdp Id cua ke't qua nghien ciiu bao gdm: (1) Kidm dinh tinh dffng eua dff lieu bang kiem dinh ADF nham bao dam kd't qua ffdc li/ctng khdng phai la hdi quy gia mao; (2) Kiem dinh da cdng tuyen (tffdng quan cao giffa cac bid'n dpclSp) bang nhdn liJ phdng dai phffdng sai (VIF); (3) Kidm dinh tff tffdng quan cua phan dff: dung thong ke Q va Iffde dd tff iffdng quan PACF.
4.2. Nguon dff lieu
Bai nghidn cuM sd dung dff lieu thff cd'p co cau true bang khdng can bang (unbalanced panel) bao gdm 10 qud'c gia ASEAN trong giai doan tff nam 2000 de'n na m 2017. Ngudn dff heu dffdc lay tff Ngan hdng The' gidi vd tai heu thdng ke cffa ASEAN (the ASEAN statistical yearbook). Giai doan nghien ciiu nay dffpc chpn vi tinh sSn cd cua sd lieu.
5. Kd't qua nghidn cifu va thao lu$n 5.1. Thong ke mo td vd ma trqn tiding quan Phan nay md ta dae diem thd'ng kd euac^c bie'n trong md hinh nham xac dinh quy ludtphan phd'i cua dff lidu, xem xet dff lieu cd tinh chat phan tan hay tdp trung, ciing nhff ddnh gid mtfc dd tffdng quan giffa cac bie'n trong md hinh... Cac dac didm thd'ng ke cua dff Heu cd lidn quan den cdc gia thie't cua md hlnh ffdc Iffdng vd anh hffdng de'n dp tin eay va hieu qua cua ket qua ffde Iffdng. Kd't qua thd'ng kd md ta dffdc the hien dBang 1.
Nhin chung cac bie'n ed he so' phdn tdn (ty Ie gffa phffdng sai va gia tri trung binh) khd Idn, cho tha'y dff lieu khdng tap trung va vd cd dp phan tan cao. Bdn canh do, edc bie'n ed chenh lech giffa gia trj Idn nhd't vd nhd nhd't khd Idn eho thSy dd'u hieu cac bie'n a'n ehffa eac gid tri ngoai lai.
Mat khac, hau he't gia tri eua ede bie'n khdng tuan theo quy ludtphan phd'i chud'n (he sd Jarque-Bera ed y nghia thd'ng ke cao d mffc 1%).
Sff tffdng quan giffa cae bid'n dpc Idp vdi bien phu thudc dffdc md ta bang ma tran hd sdtifcfng quan giffa cac bie'n trong Bang 2 nhff sau:
GDPpc ed tffdng quan thudn va tffdng dd'i cao vdi ede bid'n dpc lap gdm SEA, AIR, MCS, GFCE (gid tri he sd tffdng quan cap cao hdn 0.5). Tuy nhidn, GDPpc cd tffdng quan thap vdi cae bienvi md (gia tri he so' tffdng quan nhd hdn 0.4).
Tffdng quan giffa eac bid'n ddc Idp hdu nhtf khdng cao (dffdi 0.6), ngoai trff bid'n AIR va SEA.
Do do, can Itfu y kiem dinh hidn tffdng da cong tuyd'n cua bie'n AIR va bie'n SEA khi danh gia kei qua hdi quy.
150 Sdn -Thang 6/2019
KINH TE
Bang 1. Thdng ke mo ta cue mau hoi quy Bien
GDPpc ROAD SEA AIR INT MCS GFCE EMP
So quan sat 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121
Mean 12,475.20 92,209.25 7,544.97 1,740.29 35.60 91.51 12,04 66.30
Std.Dev.
16,649.02 108,659.00 9,874.00 2,317.17 26.01 46.47 5.16 7.37
MIn 388.27 2,271.00 61.00
0.02 0.25 0.98 3.46 58.16
Max 57,714 30 421,535.00 33,869.00 7,981.26 94.87 176.03 26.48 84.22
Jarque-Bare (45.76)*
(22 95)*
(39.29)*
(53.4)*
(7 45)*
(8 65)*
(14.80)*
(19.55)*
*) dgi dien cho mdc y nghTa 1%
Bdng 2. Ma trqn tUdng quan cua cdc bien trong mo hinh
GDPPC ROAD
SEA AIR INT MCS GFCE EMP
GDPPC 100 -0.43 0.60 0 62 0.72 0.43 0,33 -0.30
ROAD
1.00 -0,11 -0 18 -0.26 0.01 -0 20 0.05
SEA
1.00 0 86 0.69 0.53 -0.11 -0.20
AIR
100 0.55 0.36 -0.06 -0.24
INT
1.00 0,71 0.33 -0.42
MCS
100 0.10 -0.02
GFCE
1.00 -0.45
EMP
1.00 Nguon: Tinh todn cda nhdm tdc gid
Bang 3. Ket qud kiem djnh nghiem ddn vj ADF (ADF Test) Ky hl$u Bien
GDPpc ROAD SEA AIR MCS
INT GFCE
EMP
B9c0 (Level) 0.7 -1.24 3 05 0.66 3,01 2 81 189 0.81
Sal ptian Bdc 1 -2,06"
-2 35*
-1.68"
-2 48*
-2.27**
-4.46*
-3.08*
-1,52***
Chu thich. * CO y nghia thd'ng ke d mdc 1 %, ** d mdc 5%, *** d mdc 10%
So 11 -Thdng 6/2019 151
lAPCnlCONnHlfdNG
Bang 4. Ket qua udc lactng D - G M M vd D - G M M vdi t a c dpng c o dinh Mo tilnti D-GMM co trpng s6
C
D(GDPC(-1))
D(ROAD)
D(SEA)
D(AIR)
D(MCS)
D(INT)
D(GFCE)
D(EMP)
AR(1)
AR(2)
R^ dieu chinh Durbin-Watson
H#so
Pi
fc
h h
Ps
h
Pi
h
M6 tilnti 1 3995.004 (1.279) -413,74 (-1 084)
0.001 (0,44) 0,183*"
(1.833) 0,107 (0 227) 18.623 (0 966) 8 448 (0.185) -907,686*
(-3.633) 626.142*
(3,032)
0.421 1499
Mo tilnti 2 9407 525*
(1896,8) -1028.9*
(-1821.1) 0.003*
(635 089) 0.279*
(3679.419) 0.157*
(341.16) 22.02*
(1497 98) 5 32*
(187.113) -1144.295*
(-15365) 710.35*
(4068,27) 0,299*
(4750.584)
0 486 1.796
Mo hlnh 3 8313 986*
(1919,097) -906.36*
(-1854.2) 0,005*
(1050.77) 0.196*
(2906.923) -0,166*
(-372,55) 29,662*
(1990,2) 39.357*
(1447.9)
-1144 69*(-18248)
732.785*
(4431,01) 0 468*
(7264,15) -0.489 (-7287) 0.607 2.044
Md hlnh 4
•2677,370*
(-2973.364) 335.293*
(3439.724) 0.003*
(713,03) 0.225*
(3462,104)
0.190*(446,91)
42,583' (3118 535)
34.209*
(1275 98) -1143.064*
(-18467,14) 669 054*
(4437 47) 0.518*
(8434.97) -0,413*
(-6498,97) 0.598 1.992
Chii Ihich:
- Bien phu thudc GDP binh qudn ddu ngudi d dgng Id sai phdn b$c 1.
- Gid In thd'ng ke I (t- statistics) dugc ghi bin dudi hi sd Udc lu^.
(*) Idcdy nghia thdng ke dmdc 1%; (**) d mdc 5% vd (***) dmdc 10%
5.2. Kiem dinh nghidm ddn vi (kiem dinh tinh dffng cua chudi)
Kidm dinh tinh dffng cua cac bie'n trong md hinh la bffdc thffc hidn ein thie't nham dam bao ke't qua hdi quy khdng bi gia mao (spurious regression).
Kd't qua kiem djnh nghiem ddn vi Dickey-Fuller md rdng (ADF) eho tha'y cac chudi bid'n deu khdng dffng d bac 0 nhffng dffng d bac 1 (Bang 3).
5.3. Ket qud ffdc liiang
Vi cac bid'n deu dffng d bSe 1 (tffc chudi dttng sai phan) ndn md hinh nghidn effu (Eq.l) dffdc if^c Iffdng theo phffdng phap GMM dffdi dang sai phan bac 1 (first difference), gpi la D-GMM. Ben C£
dd, dff lieu cd dp phan tan eao, ddng thdi ehiia cac gia tri di biet ndn phffdng phap D-GMM ed trpng sd dffdc de xuS't de ffdc lffdng. De dam bao ket qua
152 S d n -Thdng 6/2019
KINH TE
ffdc lffdng hieu qua va cd thd phan tich tac ddng ridng cua eac bien ddc lap de'n bie'n phu thude, ta can kiem dinh hidn tffdng da cdng tuyen. Ke't qua kiem dinh VIF cho tha'y khdng ed hidn tffdng da edng tuyd'n cao giffa cae bid'n doe ISp (VIF<10).
Nham kiem tra dd manh cua ke't qua ffdc Iffdng (robustness test), md hinh Eq. 1 dffdc ffdc Iffdng vdi 4ky thuatkhacnhau.Md hinh (1), (2) va (3) la cac md hinh ffdc Iffdng D-GMM vdi tae ddng ed' dmh (md hinh (I) la ffdc Iffdng D-GMM thdng thffdng, md hinh (2) la ffdc Iffdng D-GMM vdi xff Iy tff tffdng quan bac 1, md hinh (3) tffdng tff md hinh (2) vdi xu" ly tff tffdng quan bac 2 cua phan dff). Md hinh (4) tffdng tff md hinh (3) nhffng khdng tinh de'n tac ddng cd dinh. Ke't qua cua 4 md hinh dffdc trinh bay trdng Bdng 4.
Nhin ehung, ket qua eua ca 4 md hinh ddu cd y nghTa thd'ng kd ve mffc dd phu hdp vdi dff lidu. Tuy nhidn, md hlnh (1) va (2) cd he so' R- tha'p (dffdi 50%) va cd da'u hidu cua hidn tffdng tff tffdng quan {hd sd'Durbin-Watson =1.4 va 1.79 tffdng ffng).
Ngoai ra, cae he so' ffde Iffdng eua cae bid'n dai didn ebo Logistics khdng ed y nghTa thd'ng kd hoae y nghia thd'ng kd khdng eao (10%). Trong 4 md hinh trdn thi md hinh (3) eho kd't qua td't nha't vdi do phij hdp eua md hinh d mffc y nghia I %. Phan Idn cac hd sd ffde Iffdng ddu ed y nghTa thdng ke cao (1%) va cd y nghTa kinh te' phu hdp vdi ly thuyd't. Md hlnh giai thich dffdc 60% sff bid'n thidn ciia bie'n phu thudc va khdng bi hidn tffdng tff tffdng quan (be sd' Durbin-Watson x§.'p xi 2 va quan sat Iffdc dd PACF phan dff eho tha'y hd sd tffdng quan rieng eua phan dff deu nam trong khoang tin eSy).
Chinh vi vSy, md hlnh (3) dffdc chpn dd thao luan ke't qua.
He so' PI cda bie'n tre tang trffdng kinh te' dai dien eho sff hdi tu tffdng dd'i cua tang trffdng kinh te'theo thdi gian ndncd da'u ky vong am. He s o p ,
= -905.35 va cd y nghTa thd'ng kd cao (1%) cho thS'y cac qud'c gia ASEAN ed sff hdi tu v^ tang trffdng kinh te' trong glai doan nghidn cffu. Dieu nay nha't quan vdi ly thuye't tang trffdng kinh td' va cung hoan toan tffdng tff vdi kd't qua cua cac nghien cffu trffde (Chu, 2011; Dinh 2008).
Nhdm bie'n dai dien cho 'Giao thdng van tai' cd tac dpng tich effe va dang ke de'n tang trffdng kmh td' khi he so' eua bie'n ROAD va SEA deu dffdng 02 = 0.005 va ps = 0,196) va ed y nghia
thdng kd cad d mffc 1%. Khi cd them 1 km dffdng bd cao tdc se lam GDPpc tang thdm 0.005 USD hoac khi cd them 1.000 container qud'c te' di qua cac cang bien thi GDPpe tang 0.196 USD. Ket qua nay hoan toan ddng nhS't vdi cae nghidn effu thffc nghidm khae (Serzer, 2017; Hayaloglu, 2015; Lean 2014; Kayode, 2013; Boopen, 2006). Tuy nhien, van tai b5ng dffdng hang khdng (AIR) lai ed tac ddng tidu cffc dd'i vdi tang trffdng kinh td' thd hidn qua he sd'/34 = -0.166, cho thay thu nhap binh quan tinh trdn dau ngffdi se giam 0.166 USD khi cd them mpt trieu ta'n hang hda dffdc van tai thdng qua dffdng hang khdng. Nguyen nhan cd the la do van tai hang khdng khdng phai la phffdng tidn ehu yd'u phuc vu hang xua't nhap khau tai cac nffdc ASEAN. Kd't qua nay ngffdc vdi ke't qua nghien cffu tai cae nffdc phat trien eua Yamaguchi (2007), Hayaloglu (2015) va Serzer (2017).
Nhdm bid'n dai didn cho 'Thdng tin - Vien thdng ed cae he sd' ffde Iffdng mang da'u dffdng (/3j= 29.66 va jS^ =39.35) va deued y nghia thd'ng kd cao d mffc 1%, cho thay sd' Iffdng thue bao di ddng tinh trdn 100 ngffdi (MCS) va ti Id ngffdi sff dung internet tinh tren dan so' (INT) thuc day tang trffdng kinh td' mdt each dang ke. Cu the, tinh tren 100 ngffdi kbied them 1 ngffdi sff dung dien thoai di ddng thi thu nhap blnh quan tinh tren dau ngffdi se tang them gan 30 USD, va con so' nay la 40 USD kbi cd them 1 % dan sd sff dung internet. Ke't qua nay nha't quan vdi mot so' nghien cffu trffdc (Serzer, 2017 va Hayaloglu, 2015).
Ngoai ra, cac bie'n vT md gdm cd 'Chi tieu chinh phu' (GFCE) va 'Ty le tham gia Iffc Iffdng lao ddng eua dan so'' (EMP) la cac bie'n kiem soat trong md hinh. Ca hai deu cd y nghia thong ke cao d mffc 1%, trong dd GFCE cd tac ddng trai chieu lpj= -1.144,69) nhffng EMP lai tae ddng cung chieu (;6g= 732,78) vdi tang trffdng kinh td'.
Ke't qua nay eung thd'ng nha't vdi ke't qua nghien cffu cua Chu (2011) va Sezer (2017).
6. Ke't luan va ham y chinh sach Bai vie't nghidn cffu tac dpng cua Logistics de'n tang trffdng kinh te' tai cae nffde ASEAN, sff dung phffdng phap ffdc Iffdng sai phan GMM tren dff lieu thff cap vdi ea'u true bang trong giai doan 2000 de'n 2017. Ke't qua ffdc Iffdng D-GMM cho thay Logistics vdi dai didn la "Giao thdng van tai" va
"Thdng tin - Vien thdng" deu cd tac dpng tieh effe
So 11 -Thang 6/2019 153
TAPCHlCONGinifllNG
va dang kd de'n tang trffdng kinh te' tai cae nffde ASEAN, trong dd, tae ddng cua 'Thdng tin - Vien thdng' dffdc tim tha'y manh me hdn. Ke't qua cung cho tha'y cae loai hinh giao thdng khae nhau ed tae ddng khac nhau den tang trffdng kinh te'. Trong khi giao thdng dffdng bd va dffdng bien tac dpng lich cffe den tang trffdng kinh tethi dffdng hang khdng lai cho thay tac ddng khdng rd ret.
Ke't qua nghidn cffu tren ham y rang ehinh phu nen dau tff phat tridn ha tang giao thdng van tai va dac biet la ITnh vffc 'Thdng tin - vidn thdng' de tbiic day tang trffdng kinh td'. Dau tff vao ha tang giao thdng thuc day kinh td' tang trffdng thdng qua viec giam chi phi va tie't kiem thdi gian trong qua trinh van ehuydn, lffu kho... Dau tff vao ITnh vffc thdng tin
vidn thdng tao da cho tang trffdng kinh te'taicSc nffdc dang phat tridn (dien hinh la khu vi(c ASEAN), thdng qua viec giup hoat ddng nghien ciJu va phat trien (R&D), cac hoat ddng thdng tin, xiJc tid'n thffdng mai va dau tff, va eac dich vu logistics khac trd nen thuan ldi va nhanh chdng hdn.
Bai nghidn effu nay ed the hffu ich cho cac niidc ASEAN khi dd ra chinh sach kinh te' vT md. Tuy nhien, bai nay cung cd mpt so' gidi ban nha't dinli khi chtta dffa day du cae bie'n vT md de kiem soat md hlnh (vi du: FDI, dp md effa nen kinh td',..), d6ng thdi cung chffa phan tieh tac ddng cd dinh de tliay sff khac biet cua tffng qud'e gia. Day cung la de xuat cho hffdng nghien effu tid'p theo nham khac phuc cac ban che' neu trdn •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Boopen. S. (2006). Transport infrastructure and economic growth: Evidence from Africa using dynamic panel estimates. The empirical economics letters. 5(1), 37-52.
2. Chu, Z. (2011). Logistics and economic growth: A panel data approach. The Annals of regional science, 49(1). 87- 102.
3. Ding. L, Haynes, K. E., & Liu, Y. (2(X)8). Telecommunications infrastructure and regional income convergence in China: Panel data approaches. The annals of regional science. 42(4), 843-861.
4. Gunasekera, K., Anderson, W., & Lakshmanan, T. R (2008). Highway-induced development: evidence from Sri Lanka. World Development, 36(11). 2371-2389.
5. Hayaloglu, P. (2015). The impact of developments in the Logistics sector on economic growth: The case of OECD countries. International Journal oj Economics and Financial Issues. 5(2), 523-530.
6. Kayode, O., Babatunde, 0., & Abiodun. F. (2013). An empirical analysis of transport infrastructure investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Social Science, 2(6), 179-188.
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Transport Policy, 32. 96-104.
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:: A panel data approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4). 1127-
10 Reza, M (2013). The relationship between Logistics and economic development in Indonesia: Analysis oflim series data. JurnalTeknik Industri, 15(2), 119-124.
11. Roller, L. H, & Waverman, L (2001) Telecommunications infrastructure and economic developmeni: A .simultaneous approach. American economic review, 91(4). 909-923.
12. Sezer. S., & Abasiz, T (2017). The Impact of Logistics Indusliy on Economic Growth; An application in OECD countries. Eurasian Journal of Social Sciences. 5(1), 11-23.
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KINH TE
14. Yamaguchi, K. (2007). Inter-regional air transport accessibility and macro-economic peiformance in Japan.
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 43(3), 247-25.
Ngay nhan bai: 12/5/2019
Ngay phan bien danh gia va su'a chSa: 22/5/2019 Ngay chSip nhan dSng bai: 2/6/2019 Thong tin tdc gid:
ThS. VO THI NGOC TRINH - LE VIET MANH - NGUYEN BUI BA NGOC Khoa Kinh te'va Quan ly cdng, Trffdng Dai hoc M^ Thanh phd'Ho Chi Minh
THE IMPACTS OF LOGISTICS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASEAN COUNTRIES
• Master. VOTHI NGOC TRINH
• LE VIET MANH
• NGUYEN BUI BA NGOC Faculty of Economics and Public Management,
Open University of Ho Chi Minh City ABSTRACT:
Impacts of Idgistics on the economic growth are attracting more attention of researchers and becoming a research spot (Wang et al., 2010). This study examines the impacts of logistics on the economic growth by using method of weighted fixed effect D-GMM to esdmate panel data model in ASEAN in the period from 2000 to 2017. The result shows that proxies of logistics including 'Transportation" and "Information - Telecommunication" have significantly positive impact on the economic growth in ASEAN, especially for Information - Telecommunication, which is quite consistent with the previous empirical studies results. The resuh also implies that goverments of countries In ASEAN should focus on investing in transportation and especially pay attention on Information - Telecommunication field for promoting their economic growth.
Keywords: D-GMM, ASEAN, logisdes, economic growth.
So 11 -Thong 6/2019 155
