Khi ndi den quan he thUdng

CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 05-2009

KINH TE - XA HOI

QUAN HE THUONG MAI NHAT - MY

• • •

NCTA C U O I T H E K Y XX VA DAU THE KY XXI

K

hi ndi den q u a n he thUdng mai N h a t - My, ngQdi t a lien tQdng tdi Hiep dinh An n i n h N h a t - My va Hiep dinh Hoa b i n h San Francisco N h a t ky vdi My va cae nQdc hQu q u a n khdc hdi t h d n g 9 n a m 1951.

Tren q u a n diem chinh tri, day dUdc coi la cd sd p h a p ly de lien m i n h N h a t - My r a ddi. C h i n h t r e n cd sd nay da r a ddi c i i gpi la hpe t h u y e t Yoshida - t e n gpi cua T h u t u d n g N h i t - dng Shigeru Yoshida - dai dien cho N h a t ky 2 hiep dinh ndi t r e n . Cac n h a binh luan chinh t r i thdi sti qud'c te eho rang, hpe t h u y e t Yoshida thtlc chat la chinh sach k i n h te - xa hdi cua N h a t sau n a m 1951 - n a m ddng m i n h t r a o t r a nen ddc lap cho N h a t dudi d a n g quyen tQ q u i n vdi sQ bao trd ctia My.

NgQdi t a cho r i n g , ddy la chd diia de lien m i n h N h a t - My ngay cang gan bd m a t t h i e t vdi n h a u vd de q u a n he thUdng m a i N h a t - My ngay cang p h i t t r i e n . Hiep d i n h Hoa b i n h San Francisco k h d n g cho p h e p N h a t ttl tliilc hien e i c h a n h dpng q u i n sti, khdng cho p h e p N h a t lien m i n h q u a n sQ vdi b a t ky nQdc nao, ngay ca vdi cac dao q u d n My d a n g ddn t r u t r e n d i t nude N h a t ; ve m a t ngoai giao, N h a t cung b o a t dpng dQdi trQdng cua My.

DQ sao c h a n g nQa, sau khi N h a t dupe dpc lap dQdi d a n g tti tri t h i trong lien m i n h vdi My, N h a t cd n h i e u chii dpng hdn t r o n g cdc v a n de p h i t t r i e n

Th.S. N g u y e n Tuan Minh Vien Nghien cilu Chdu My va khdi phuc kinh te sau chien t r a n h . Dd la chQa ke lien minh N h a t - My, mpt m a t b i o d i m an ninh cho N h a t yen t a m lam an, khdi phiic va p h i t trien kinh te; m a t k h i c , khdng che v i kiem soat N h a t p h a t trien q u a n dpi; do vay cho phep N h a t tiet kiem dupe chi phi quan sU, khien cho so' chi nay chua n a m nao vUdt qua 1%. GDP ciia Nhat, tao cho N h a t cd ngudn tai chinh ddi ddo tap t r u n g vao phuc hdi d i t nUdc sau Chien t r a n h The gidi thQ hai.

NhQng t a i sao My lai hd trp N h a t nhQ vay, trong khi ngQPi t a van nhd lai t r a n ac chien T r a n C h a u Cang (ngay 7/12/1941), khdng quan N h a t bat ngp n e m bom chdn vQi h a n g ngdn thuy q u a n luc chien cQng cac phQPng tien chien t r a n h hien dai My dQdi day bien Hawaii. Luc dd. My dat len b d n g dau nhiem vu phai loai bd N h a t ra khdi h a n g ngu nhQng ddi t h u giau k h i n a n g c a n h t r a n h chdng lai My. Cdn ngUdi dan My - n h i t la dan q u i n d i o Ha'waii cd le den bdy gid van khdng quen t h i m boa T r a n C h a u C i n g cung n g i y d i u N h a t t u y e n chien vdi My ldm h a n g n g a n con em hp vinh vien n i m dudi day bien cang nay.

Ve thiic c h i t . My da loai bd dQdc N h a t nhQ la ke t h u chdng My va gan c h a t N h a t vao lien m i n h vdi My.

Dd'i vdi My viec lien m i n h vdi N h a t , mpt m a t se tao n e n mdt ddng m i n h vdi n h i e u hy vpng ve chinb tri, cung

SO 05-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY q u a n diem l a p trQdng vdi My t r o n g

cac van de h a i b e n cung q u a n t a m t r e n eac dien d a n quo'c te; m a t k h a c , hy vpng N h a t se trd t h a n h ddng m i n h t h a n can giup My t h i e t lap p h d n g t u y e n q u a n sti c u n g H a n Qud'c ehd'ng chu n g h i a Cdng s i n (Lien Xd, T r u n g Qud'c vd Trieu tien) d Ddng Bae A.

S a u k h i dQdc ddc l a p dQdi d a n g tQ q u i n , N h a t td chQc lai bd m a y c h i n b quyen, cd cd'u lai n e n k i n h te, ddi mdi phQdng thQe td chQc, q u a n ly boat dpng s i n x u a t k i n h doanh; nhd vay n e n kinh t e N h a t dQdc khdi phuc d i n dan va b a t d a u cd b d n g boa x u a t k h a u s a n g My t r o n g t h a p nien 50 va 60 ciia t h e ky XX. T r o n g thdi gian nay, N h a t xuat k h a u s a n g My chii yeu c i c m a t h a n g cdng n g h i e p n h e , n h i e u n h a t l i h a n g det may, t r o n g dd p h i i ke den ao k h o i c , b a n g mQc d d n h m a y va n h i e t ke re tien. N a m 1956, N h a t mdi x u a t k h a u dupe cho My 16 dtd. De'n cud'i t h a p nien 60, N h a t b a t d i u dUa vao t h i trQdng My s i n p h a m ciia n g a n h cdng nghiep t r u y e n t h a n h (Radio).

Cd the ndi r i n g , den giQa t h a p nien 70 ciia the ky XX, quan he thQdng mai Nhat - My chQa ed nhQng xung dot dang ngai cho cac n h a doanh nghiep N h a t vi hang boa N h a t chQa nhieu. edn thi trUdng ndi dia dupe b i o hp. Theo "Luat bdi dodi va kiem soat ngoai thQdng"

Nhat ban h a n h n a m 1949, h a n g h o i nhap vao N h a t phai dQdc phep treng han ngach N h a t "cap" chd My.

Den giQa t h a p nien 50, do dp lilc ctia My. N h a t md rdng cdc hpp ddng tQ n h a n n h a p k h a u cdc m a t h a n g ctia My. D i u t h a p nien 70, mQe t h u e q u a n ctia N h a t da b a n g mQc t h u e ctia My va EU; tdi n a m 1979 niQc t h u d n h a p k h a u vao N h a t t h i p n h i ' t t r o n g cac nUdc cdng n g h i e p . Luc n a y N h a t chi cdn giQ lai b a n ngach n h a p h a n g ndng s i n cua My va cua c i c nude khac, vi N h i t cho r a n g n d n g t h d n la nen t i n g

ciia v a n h o i d a n g i a n va t r u y e n thd'ng v a n h o i d a n tdc N h a t , vi vay can b i o ve n d n g d d n va h a n g n d n g s i n N h a t k h d n g bi h a n g n h a p k h a u c a n h t r a n h .

TQ niia cud'i t h a p n i e n 70 trd di N h a t mdi cd n h i e u m a t h a n g xua't k h i u - c h u ye'u la s a n g My. R i e n g m a t h d n g dtd va p h u t u n g dtd N h a t ban cho My t r o n g thdi gian 1981-1988 tri gia k h o a n g 175,6 t y U S D , nbUng N h i t chi m u a dtd va p h u tQng dtd ciia My t r i gia k h o a n g 2,5 t y U S D ; nghia la My n h a p sieu ctia N h a t ve m a t h a n g n a y la 173,1 ty U S D , tQdng dQdng 58,2 % t d n g h a n n g a c h budn b a n N h a t - My.

Mac dQ h i e n nay, N h a t g i n h vac k h o i n g 1/3 t h a m h u t n g a n sach My b i n g each m u a t r a i p h i e u k h o bae n h a nQdc My, d a u tQ n g a y c i n g n h i e u vao nen k i n h t e My, t a o dieu kien t h u a n ldi eho My p h d t t r i e n s i n xuat, tao cdng a n viec ldm, dn dinh xa hdi;

nhUng My v a n bupc tpi h i n g h o i N h a t ngdy cang l a n a t h a n g h o i My ngay t r e n t h i trQdng My.

Lich sti q u a n he hai nQdc sau chien t r a n h cd thay, t r o n g l i n hdi kien giQa T h u tQdng N h a t va Ngoai trQdng My hdi n a m 1954 (giQa dng Shigeru Yoshida vd dng J. F. Dulles). Ngoai trQdng My chd r i n g , h i n g hoa Nhat khdng t h e lot dQdc vao t h i trQdng My vi chat iQpng, kieu dang, m i u m a hang hoa N h a t chQa t h e d a p Qng thi hieu ngQdi tieu d u n g My. Vi vay, luc dd d N h a t x u a t hien l u a n t h u y e t cho r i n g , trong khi eac cdng ty, d o a n h nghiep the gidi tim mpi c i c h de moi tien trong tui tien ciia ngQdi tieu dQng. thi tai sao cic cdng ty, doanh nghiep N h a t lai khdng tim mpi each ddi mdi cdng nghe. t r a n g bi lai ky t h u a t de n i n g cao n a n g s u i t lao ddng, chat lUdng cdng tac, dd'i mdi kieu d i n g , m i u m a va h a gia t h a n h s i n p h a m , lam cho h i n g h o i N h a t cd nhieu k h a n a n g c a n h t r a n h vdi c i c mat

CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 05-2009

h a n g cdng loai cua c i c nifdc k h i c tren thi t r u d n g the gidi de moi t d n g xu tien trong tdi tien cua ngUdi tieu dung.

Cd le tii n e n cdng n g h i e p q u a n sii hi chien t r a n h t i n p h i , N h i t chuyen s a n g nen k i n h te p h u c vu tieu d u n g t r o n g sinh b o a t h i n g n g i y de d i n g ddi mdi cdng n g h e , k i e u d i n g , m a u ma s i n p h i m hdn c i c nUdc k h i c . Che nen t d t h i p nien 70, tdng t h a m h u t ngdai thUdng cua My vdi N h i t I i gan 34 ty U S D , d 10 n a m s a u - len tdi 324 ty USD, lam cho q u a n he thUdng mai N h a t - My cang t h a n g hdn hdi t h a p nien 60 va 70 cua t h e ky XX. My cho r a n g . My t h i m h u t ngoai thUdng n h i e u vdi N h i t nhU vay c h u yeu la:

- N h i t d u n g h i n g r a e t h u e quan v i cic b a n ngach n h a p k h i u mdt sd h i n g h o i de bao ve s i n xui't trong nUdc, do vay h i n g h o i cua My v i cua cac nifdc k h i c khd Ipt dUdc vao thi trUdng Nhat,

- G i i n h i n cdng d N h i t re l i m cho g i i ca s i n p h a m cua N h i t t h i ' p hdn g i i h i n g c d n g loai cua My, da t h e ty g i i ddng Yen N h i t t h i ' p hdn so vdi ddng USD, lam cho h a n g h o i N h i t co nhieu kha n a n g c a n h t r a n h vdi c i c m a t h a n g c d n g loai cda My ngay t r e n thi trUdng My,

Dd vay. My ddi N h a t p h i i :

X o i bd mpi h a n ngach n h i p k h i u v i c i c r i o c i n t h u e q u a n dd h i n g h o i My va nifdc n g o i i lot vao N h i t khdng hi b a n che d bi't ky gdc dp nao: n h u My da md cda n h i p h a n g cda N h a t ,

Cai each va md cda thi trifdng. tii dd h o i thifdng nuii, n h u N h a t cam ket khi xin gia n h i p WTO, ke ca phai n a n g ty gia ddng Yen so vdi ddng USD,

Mac dd N h i t cha'p n h i n yeu cau cua My, tliuc hien nguyen tac thi trUdng md, n l u i n g thi trUdng N h a t v i n c h u a du'dc md cUa thiic sU nhU y mud'n cua My. vi N h a t d d n g t h u tuc t h u e cpian iibu'c t a p v i d d n g rao can

ky t h u a t de b a n che h a n g ngoai n h a p - trong dd cd h i n g h o i My,

Trd ngai ldn nha't chd h a n g ngdai n h a p v i d N h a t I i : xa hdi N h a t la xa hpi k h e p kin, I i sii phdc t a p cda che dp q u a n lieu do chu n g h i a q u i n phiet de lai v i h a n g rao ngdn ngd, Cdng can ndi r a n g , t u y My phe p h i n . bupc tpi N h a t k h d n g md cda n h a p h a n g My, nhUng chinh My cung co luc k h d n g d i p d n g yeu c i u cung cap h a n g cho N h a t . NgUdi ta nhd rang, da cd thdi gian N h a t yen c i u My cung cap cho thi trUdng N h i t Idai dtd t i i nhd, trpng t i i k h d n g ldn de p h d hdp vdi m a t dudng nhd. hep cda Nhat, nhUng My khdng d i p d n g dUpc yen can n i y ,

T r a n h c i i My - N h i t xung q u a n h van de md cUa thi trUdng N h i t t h u d n g di den ngo cut, vi quan diem hai ben k h i c n h a u v i vi hai ben k h d n g hieu b e t n,di tinh, dac diem cda n h a u , O day N h i t chap n h i n buy bd b a n ngach va c i c r i o c i n t h u e quan, nhUng lai k h d n g d i dpng gi den nguyen t i c thi trUdng md. c i n My mud'n N h a t md cda thi tru'dng nhU My da md cda cho h a n g h o i N h a t vao My, C i c n h a kinh te cho rang, nguyen n h i n My t h i m h u t ngoai thifdng vdi N h a t la dd: Ddng Yen mat g i i sd vdi ddng USD. vi vay h i n g h d i N h i t cd nhieu k h i n a n g c a n h t r a n h tren thi trUdng My, Cdn h i n g h o i cua My cdng vi the ma khdng cd k h i n a n g canh t r a n h vdi h a n g h o i N h a t tren thi trUdng N h i t , Dd vay. My yeu c i u Nhat md cUa thi trUdng t i i chinh N h i t de tad t h u a n lpi chd giad thUdng qudc te, N h i t chap n h a n yeu c i u n i y . da tu do boa thi trUdng t i i chinh. Nam 1985.

N h i t da n a n g ty g i i cldng Yen len 30"o

so vdi ddng USD lam cho cic cong ty

xui't k h i u h i n g cho My phai ken chpn

n h d n g m a t h a n g My cd nhieu nhu can

de cd the khdng hi giam sdt tlui nh;ip,,.

6

SO 05-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY

Do N h i t thiic hien chinh sich ty gii linh hoat, cai tien cdng t i c quan ly, hdp ly hoa dUdc cic khoin chi h i n h chinh - q u i n tri. cho nen thu n h i p cua cic doanh nghiep xui't khau khong hi giam. m i ddi khi cdn tang dUdc kim ngach xua't k h i u .

Tru'dc nam 1980. Nhat d i u tu vio My mdi nam khoang 5 ty USD. chu yeu de giai n g i n cho nhdng dii i n cua My khai t h i c vat tu. nguyen lieu d Indonesia. Australia va Brazil phuc vu p h i t trien kinh te My va de My xiy diing cic cdng ty Idp r i p phu tdng do cac doanh nghiep My lam ra P khu viic Chau A - Thii Binh DUPng t h i n h s i n p h i m hoan chinh rdi lai b i n cho khu viic nay.

Neu gida t h i p nien 80 ve trUdc, tham hut ngoai thifpng cda My vdi Nhat dupc coi la van cie cang thang hang dill trong quan he thu'dng mai Nhat - My. thi td giua thap nen 80 ve sau. gay can liing dau trong quan he dd'i ngoai gida My va N h i t lai Ii van de My bupc tpi N h i t len Idt mua b i t dpng s i n va mpt so doanh nghiep My.

gay khd khan cho My trong viec q u i n ly nen kinh te, quan ly cic ngudn thu ngan sich.

Chinh sich khuyen khich d i u tu cua My d thap nien 80 da tao cd hpi t h u i n ldi cho N h i t dau tU vao My.

Neu vio cud'i nam 1980, tdng vd'n dau tu cda N h i t vao My la 26.3 ty USD.

thi cudi nam 1983 len tdi 284,8 ty USD, chiem 15,9% tdng GDP vio My.

Den d i u thap nien 90 cda the ky XX, kinh te N h i t cd di'u hieu khdng binh thu'dng, thu n h i p tren thi trUPng chd'ng khoan tang nhanh. gdp phan lam tang gia dia dc. tang tinh trang dau c() tren thi tru'dng chdng khoan, Trong thdi gian 1986-1990 chi sd Nikkei tren thi trifdng chdng khoin Tokyo tang 3 lan, Cud'i cung sii phdn

vinh gii tao cua nen kinh te N h i t thdng qua tdng ao chi so' Nikkei hi vd Id. nen tai chinh bong bdng hi xi hdi.

lam cho kinh te N h i t lam vio suy thoii, tri tre, nhieu thu tUdng Nhat phai td chuc khi chua het nhiem ky vi khdng du'a dupc nen kinh te N h i t thoat khdi suy thoii, Mai den thdi dng Koizumi len lam-thd tifdng nam 2002 - 2006. nen kinh te ldn thd 2 the gidi n i y mdi phuc hdi trd lai: cd nghia la t h i m hut ngoai thu'dng ciia My vdi N h i t lai bat d i u tang len. nhUng khdng nhieu bang t h i m hut ngoai thu'dng cda My vdi Trung Qudc.

Vi du, nam 2006 tham but ngdai thUdng cua My vpi Nhit Ii 88.4 ty USD, chiem 7,2% tdng tham hut ngoai thifdng cda My. cdn cda My vdi Trung Qud'c Ii 232.5 ty USD chiem 28%, Do vay. cang thang quan he ngoai thUdng My vi Nhit tru'dc diy nay chuyen sang gida My v i Trung Qudc, Luc nay trong buon bin vdi My, Nhat kem EU. Trung Qudc, Canada va Mexico; cdn trong budn bin vdi Nhat, My ddng d i u ve tdng kim ngach xua't khau cho N h i t (chiem 34.4%)), ddng thd 2 ve tdng kim ngach nhip khiu.cda Nhat (chiem 12,6/o tdng kim ngach xui't k h i u cua Nhit). Su suy glim kinh te Nhat v i tdng thim hut ngoai thUdng cda My vdi Trung Qudc da hdi giii phan nao quan he My - Nhit trong linh viic ngoai thUdng.

Cic n h i binh luan kinh te the gidi cho rang, mpi phan tich trien vpng phat trien quan he ngoai thu'Png My - Nhat deu p h i i tinh den lpi ich kinh te qua lai gida hai nifdc nay. Vi ngeii nhdng ly do chinh tri, quan sii thi kinh te cung la nhan to' quan trong cung cd lien minh Nhat - My trong thpi gian qua va trong tifdng lai •

Xem Quan he Nhdt - My trong thdi gian qua. Theo tap chi My vd Canada - so 7/2008.

Bai viet tham gia De tdi KX.0l.03106-10.