CHINH TRI - KINH TE - XA HOI
k m m HOANG THj TRUftNG CHANG KHOAN THACH THlfC GAI GAGE E M TE CUA TRUNG QUOC
HA HONG VAN - NGUYEN THj THU HI^N N G U Y I N THj HA PHI/ONG Vien Nghien cdu Trung Qudc
Tdm lat: Bai viet phac hpa biic tranh loan canh ve khiing hoang TTCK ciia Trung Qu6c vao thai diem gi&a thang 7 nam 2015. Trong do, tap trung phan tich nbung nguyen nhSn gSy ra khiing hoang, nit ra nhifng nhEin xet va danh gia budc dau vh triln vpng cua TTCK Trung Qu6c trong thdi gian t6i.
Tir khoa:: Thi truong chung khoa (TTCK), Chi s6 chiimg khoan Thuong Hai, Trung Qu6c.
1. Dien bien tinh hinh TTCK Trung Quoc trong thoi gian gan day
- Sau thdi gian tdng mgnh, tic giira thdng 6 den ddu thdng 7 ndm 2015, TTCK Trung Qudc dd chimg kien su sut gidm mgnh nhdt trong 10 ndm qua.
Chi trong 1 tuiin tir 26/6 den ngay 3/7 tren ca 2 san Thucmg Hai va Tham Quyen v6n hoa da giam 6.000 ti NDT, gia c6 philu trung binh a 2 san trong 1 tuan giam 13,8%''l Trong vong 3 tuan tir 12/6 dkn 111, chi s6 chumg khoan Thuang Hai (Shanghai Composite Index) da giam 29%, cu6n phang khoang 3,2 nghin ti USD von h6a, tuong dirong 2 lan quy mo cua toan
bO TTCK An Do'^'. Chi trong 1 phien giao dich ngay 3/7, chi so SCI da giam den 5,8%, ngay 7/7 chi s6 SCI tilp tuc giam them 1,29%, a miic 3728,19 dilm. Chi s6 chung khoan Tham Quyen (Shenzhen Composite Index) da giam 39% ke tCr mijrc dinh horn 12/6, trong khi cac nha giao dich ky quy v i n tiep tuc manh tay xa hang. DSn ngay 25/8, Chi s6 SCI giam hon 40% so voi dinh ma no thiet lap vao giiia thang 6, xuong con 2965 diem .
- Trong vong 1 thdng da co han 600 cong ty ngirng giao dich.
Truoc tinh trang TTCK sut giam chong mat, dk "tu ve" truac tinh trang "dut
NGHIEN Clhi TRUNG QUOC so 8(168) - 2015
H A H 6 N G V A N - NGUYEN TH| THU HIEH-PUJUTtn i n j r
phanh" ciia cac chi so chung khoan, nhieu cong ty Trung Qu6c da xin ngung giao dich c6 philu. Trong phien giao dich ngay 7/7/2015, bu6i trua co 23 cong ty tuy6n b6 t?m thai ngimg giao dich, buoi chieu toi lai c6 them 173 cong ty xm ngimg giao dich, nhu vay chi trong 1 phien da co tai gan 200 cong ty xin ngimg giao dich. Trong vong khoang 1 thang ke tir ngay 1/6 den ngay 7/7, da co han 600 cong ty ngimg giao dich, nang tong so cong ty ngung giao dich tren 2 san Thuong Hai va Th3m Quyln len toi 942, chiem khoang 1/3 tong so cong ty niem yIt (2783 c6ng ty) trSn ca 2 san. Day ciing la con so ky luc ngimg giao dich trong lich sii*''*. Phan Ion cac cong ty ngimg giao dich la cac cong ty niem yet o san Tham Quyln, noi cac doanh nghiep nho hon chiem da s6*^'.
So CO phieu hi ngimg giao dich tren ca hai san la 1600 co phieu***, co tfing tri gia 1,4 nghin ti USD, tuong duong 21% miic von hoa ciia TTCK Trung Quoc''*. Trong b6i canh chiing khoan Trung QuIc mit diem manh, thi cac vu ngimg giao dich ngay cang tro nen phi biln. Trong khi do, tren TTCK My, hi?n co 121 cong ty tam ngimg giao dich, chilm chua dky 0,2%
tong muc von hoa ciia thi truang. Tgi H6ng Kong, so co phieu tsun ngimg giao dich la 186, chiem 4,7% miic v6n hoa toan thi trucmg'^l
Co the noi, su sut giam trong giai doan gin day cua TTCK Trung QuIc khiln khong it nhd dau tu bit ngcr, trd tay khong
kip, thi tru6mg sut g i ^ qua nhanh, hilm gap*''. Wk dot tang, giam lin nay dmirc vi nhu mOt bai hpe sau sac vl rui ro cho cic nha dau tu chiing khoan Trung QuIc.
2. NguySn nhan
Thu- nhdt, suy gidm tdng trir&ng kinh te vd he qud cua cdc chinh sdch diiu tih kinh ti vT mo cua Trung Qudc da lam TTCK Trung Quoc phdt trien qud ndng
Nguyen nhan ro rang nhit din din s\t sut giam qua nhanh TTCK Trung ()uoc thai gian qua la do syr suy giam tSng trudng kinh tl. T6c d6 tang truang kinh t^
ciia Tnmg Quoc nam 2014 chi la 7,4%, miic thap nhat trong 24 nam qua.
Ndi long chinh sdch tiin 1$. D I duy tri tang truang kinh te, Trung QuIc da c6 cac chinh sach noi long chinh sach tien te.
Trong mpt thai gian ngin, hi thang 11/2014 din nay Ngan hang Trung ucmg Trung Quoc da 3 lan giam ISi suat vao thang 11/2014; thdng 3/2015 va ngay 11/5/2015 (lai suit ca ban giam 0,25 dik phan tram), va 3 lan ha ti le dii trii bat buOc vao ngay 5/2/2015 va 'ngay 2O/4/2015 (giam ti 1? du tru bit bupc 1 diSm phan tram)*'*** va mdi day nhit vao ngiy 28/6/2015*"* nham duy tri tang trudng.
Bong bong nhd ddt v&. Khoang hon 4 thdng truac, 67 trong ting s6 70 thanh pho dupe kiem tra bdi chinh phu Trung Quoc thi gia nha dit suy giam va van trong tinh trang ton dpng vao nhihig thang tiep theo.
Theo IMF, bit dong san va cdc hoat d$ng NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 8(168)-2015
J hodng thi truomg chung khoan....
lien quan khdc udc tinh chilm khoang 33% trong cac hoat dong kinh tl ciia Trung
Theo Thdi bdo New York, cac nha diu tu sd hUu gip hai din ba lin ban gid tri cSn h$ binh thudng tren thi trudng trong khi ngudi CO nhu cau thuc su thi kho tiep can vi gid cao. Trong boi cdnh do, thang 11 nSm 2014, chinh quyen tnmg uong Trung Quoc da ha ldi suat. Vdi viec ha lai suat thip hon, va su "xi hoi" cua thi trudng nha ddt dd dan tdi sir diu ca tren TTCK vdi hy vpng tim vdn do cua cac nhd ddu tu.
Tren thj trudng ndy, cdc doanh nghi$p can huy dpng von va phat hdnh cl philu cho gidi dau tu mua ve de kiem ldi. Nhd dau tu thong qua cdc cong ty moi gidi, qua cdc ngdn hang cd the de vay tien dua vao thj trudng, cdc doanh nghiep de co them vln dl thanh todn cac khodn ncr qud Idn cua hp. Khi giai toa dieu kien tai trg cho gidi dau tu nhu vdy, chinh phii Trung QuIc dd thoi len bong bong co phieu nhd phan ling ham Idi ciia ngudi ddn, Id nhd diu tu, vd dieu do mdi giai thich viec co phieu tang vpt.
r/iu* hai, dau tu 6 at, hifu ung tdm ly ddm ddng
- Hi^u ung ddm dong ciia cdc nhd ddu tu cd nhdn thiiu Mnh nghidm
Cac nhd diu tu ca nhan chilm 80 - 90%
giao djch tren TTCK Trung Quoc. Fit nhiiu trong so hp deu rat mdi me vdi hoat dpng diu tu, khi chi rieng thang 5/2015 dd c6 tren 14 tri^u tai khoan giao dich dugrc NGHIEN CIJIU TRUNG QUtfC so 8(168)-2015
lap mdi. Dieu do co ngMa, hang trieu ngudi giao dich co phieu Trung Quoc hien nay co rat it h o ^ khdng c6 y niem true tilp ve bong bdng chiing khodn vd dl v5 thi trudng hdi giai d o ^ ndm 2007 - 2008.
Trung Quoc co khodng 90 trieu ngudi ddu tu CO phieu, va trong thdi gian gin day do thi trudng tdng diem manh me nen da thu hiit mpt luong Idn dan thudng trong do cd khong it nhung ngudi nong dan cac vung ndng thdn ciing tham gja vao TTCK.
Hi$n d nhieu viing ndng thdn Trung (^oc, ngudi ndng dan dang bd be viec ddng dng va don tien tich cdp de mua cd phieu, hp chi ra ddng ngoai gid TTCK giao dich*'^*.
Vdi dac diem cac nha diu tu non tre, diieu kinh nghidm tham gia rit nhiiu vao TTCK Trung Qudc nhu vdy, vdi hg TTCK Id noi ghe vao hot chiit tien roi di cho khdc, nhu ghe qua sdng bai lam vai canh bgc. Kieu dau ca danh bac nhu vay luon khien TTCK len bao va xudng cang bao*' '.
- Ngdn hdng do von Idn vdo TTCK.
Tinh den cuoi thdng 5^015, tien trong cdc to chiic tdi chinh tien te, cdng ty chiing khoan, cac cdng ty quy, cdng ty bdo hiem gan 13 nghin ti NDT, trong do cd din 90%
la den tii ngan hang, von cua ngdn hdng dd vao TTCK duy tri d miic 4.000 ti NDT^'^.
Cdc bipn phdp ndi Idng tiln t€ thdi gian gan ddy, nhu gidm ty le du tru: bit budc ^ gidi phdng dugc 2300 ti NDT dua vao luu thong, hi vpng ngdn hang cd nhiiu tien hon ho trg nen kinh te thyc, nhung cuoi ciing ngdn hdng da do 4000 ti NDT vao TTCK*'**.
HA HONG VAN - N G U Y I K •••> .
Dieu nay ciing gdp phan tao nen bong bong tren TTCK, vd no cung ly giai vi sao vao thdi diem cdc doanh nghiep van ldm dn binh thudng, tham chi Igi nhuan con co phdn giam siit ma gia co phieu mang ten hp lai tang len manh me.
Thu ba, tinh trang giao dich k^ quy vufjd ttgu&ng
Viec giao dich ky quy dning khoan la viec vay tiln tir ngudi moi gidi de trd cho vi8c mua them cd phieu md ngudi mua khong dii tiln dl trd cho no. Ngudi mua chiing khodn d\ra tren viec vay von. Loai giao dich Id giao dich tiem nSng dem lai Igi nhuan rit Idn, nhung ben canh do, nii ro ciing cue Idn cho ngudi dau tu, hp se mit nhiiu han sd tien hp dd dau tu, vd khi gid cd phieu giam thi cdc co phieu hp ndm giii trd nen vo gid tri, va nha ddu tu bi yeu cau phdi dua them tien de can ddi tai khoan cua hp (margin calls). Dieu nay dan den tinh tr^mg cdc nhd ndm giii c6 philu buSc phdi bdn co phieu cua hp de c6 tiln mat, hieu iing day chuyen Id tinh trang giam gia cd phieu vd ai ciing muon ban co phieu chii khong mua vdo.
Giao dich ky quy chiing khoan la hinh thiic phd biln tren TTCK toan ciu, song tai Trung QuIc, hoat ddng ndy biing phdt manh me trong vong ban mpt nam qua. Ty 1$ dung ddn bay tren tdng lugng vln tren TTCK da cham nguang ky luc hdi diu ndm nay, cao hon rdt nhiiu so vdi miic timg ghi nhdn trong lich sii tai bit ky TTCK ndo khac. Mot khi giao dich ky quy
bi that lai, thi trudng lap tuc phdi diiu chinh va ddy TTCK gidm dilm m^nh, dac biet la cdc nha ddu tu phai chat vat dk dap ling bien dp giao dich ky quy mdi nay*"*.
Tinh hinh Trung Qudc hien gid kha gidng tinh hinh cua Hoa Ky nhiing nam 30 thl ky 20, TTCK Hoa Ky bimg nl nhung lay da tr^n nen lai sudt thap vd ddu ca Ion.
Nhit Id khi giao dich ky quy vugt khoi tim kilm soat va Cue du trii lien bang Hoa Ky that lai giao dich ky quy chi 8 thdng tmoc khi TTCK dd vd day nen kinh te cua Hoa Ky vao suy thodi*'^'-
3. Cac bien phap ma Trung Quoc da thirc hifn nham on dinh TTCK
• Dwa ra mot so bi§n phap nghi§p vu nham on djnh thf trwimg
Ngdy 4/7, dng Tiiu Cuong - Chu tich Uy bdn qudn ly chiing khodn Trung Quoc da chu tri td chiic tpa dam vdi 21 nha quan ly cao cdp dieu hanh cong ty chiing khoan, nham dua ra cdc bi$n phap dn dinh TTCK.
Trudc do, ngay 3/7, Uy bdn quan ly chiing khodn Trung Qudc da cfing bo gioi ban md rpng cd phieu ciia cong ty de tang von ddu tu vdi miic dp Idn, nhdm giii on dinh thi trudng; tdng han ngach cac nha ddu tu nudc ngoai du tieu chudn QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors) tu 80 ti USD len 150 ti USD;
tap trung bl tri dieu tra vd nghiem khac ddnh vao cac hanh vi diu ca; cdc cong ty ngoEii hdi gia nhap thi trudng vd mua ETF (Exchange Traded Fun). Ngay 4/7, co 21
NGHIEN CUIU TRUNG QUOC so 8(168) - 2015
hodng thj trudng chtfng khoan...
cdng ty chiing khodn cd dnh hudng Idn 6 Trung Qudc bd ra 100 ty NDT mua vao cac cd philu ETF. Ddng thdi, Uy ban chiing khoan chinh thiic cong bl dinh chi viec xin niem yIt mdi tren thi trudng (IPO**''* nhim han chi ngudn cung, cho phep hang loat cong ty ngiimg giao dich,...
Ngoai ra, theo bdo Chiing khoan Trung Qudc, gidi qudn ly Trung Qudc cam kit gi^
quyet cac mdi quan ngai vl viec thao tiing thi trudng, edt gidm phi, ndi long cac quy dinh cho vay nhdm tao diiu kien cho gidi dau tu thuan Igi ban khi mua cl philu*^***.
• Tang cuong cong tac tuyen truyen, giao dye cho ngu^ dan giCr on djnh long tin
Hdng loat cac td bdo Idn nhu Nhdn ddn nhdt bdo, Tan Hoa xa,... da lien tilp ddng nhiing bai bdo khing dinh Trung Quoc cd du dieu kien, dii nang luc, du long tin dS giii thi trudng von on dinh.
Van de mdu chdt chinh la Idng tin cua ngudi ddn, ciia cdc nha diu tu, "long tin cdn quy ban vdng bac".
Nhieu bai bao phan tich, viec tdng giam bat thudng cua TTCK d6u ti§m in rui ro, quyen Igi ciia cdc cong ty dugc niem yet va cdc nhd ddu tu la "sat sudn", bat cii su dd vd nao cua thi trudng deu dnh hudng nghiem trpng den doanh nghiep, den nen kinh te thuc, den quyen Igi ciia tat cd mpi ngudi. Vi v^y, bdt ke Id ting Idp qudn ly, nhihig ngudi tham gia thi trudng hay cdc ca quan bp nganh khdc deu phai cd trach nhiem chung tay todn luc on dinh thi trudng.
NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC so 8(168) - 2015
• cac ngSn hang Ion cua Trung Quoc cho vay 209 ty USD de ciru TTCK
Ngdy 17 thdng 7 nam 2015, nhitng ngan hang Idn nhdt Tnmg Qudc da cho vay 1,3 nghm ty te (209,4 ty USD) lai suit thip cho td chiic tai chinh cho vay ky quy dugc nha nudc hfi trg de ngan ehan cufic khiing hoang cd phieu*^'*. Cd khodng 17 ngdn hdng thuang mai cho Cong ty tdi chinh chiing khodn Trung Quoc vay. Cong ty tdi chinh chiing khoan Trung Qufic Id dinh che duy nhdt cung cdp dich vu cho vay ky quy cho cac cong ty chung khodn Trung Qudc vd dugc xem nhu mdt dng din quan trpng cua chinh phu Trung Quoc dl chfing 1^ bien ddng cua thi trudng chting khodn*"*.
Nhu vay, sy sut giam ciia TTCK da khien Chinh phu Trung Qudc phai dua ra gdi gidi Cliu Idn nhu vay di cimg vdi cdc no lye nghiep vu nhdm Sn dinh thj trudng.
• Tmng Quoc dieu chinh ty gia dong NDT
Do da kinh tdng trudng kinh tl cham lai, TCCK Trung Qudc lao ddc qud nhanh, tdng trudng xuit khiu gidm, Trung QuIc dd dieu chinh ty gid ding NDT trong thdi gian gdn ddy. Trong 3 ngay lien tiep tir ngdy 11 den ngay 13/8 nam 2015, Ngan hang Trung uong Trung Quoc da cd dpng thdi phd gid/giam gid dfing NDT lien tilp trong 3 ngay lien. Dong npi te ciia Trung Quoc da cd nhihig ngay gidm gid manh nhat ke tit ndm 1994. Ty gid tham chieu ding NDT ngdy 11/8 Id: lUSD = 6,2298
H A H S N G V A N - N G U Y i N .
4;
NDT, gidm 1,9% so vdi miic 6,1162 dugc dp dung trudc do. Miic pha gid 1,9% theo ngdy dugc coi Id manh nhat d Trung Qufic kl tii thdng 1/1994*^*. Ngay 12 vd 13/8, Ngan hdng nhan ddn Trung QuIc da tilp tuc pha gid ddng NDT them 1,6% va 1,1%.
Trudc day, di ciing vdi sy tang gia ciia dfing NDT, cdc dong tiln nong tii nudc ngodi dfi vao thi trudng Trung Qudc. Vdi no Iyc nhim kilm sodt dugc cdc ddng tien diu tu CO the dan den sy ddu tu dot bien tren thi trudng chiing khoan, Ngdn hang nhdn dan Trung Qufic da can thiep, giam gid ding NDT nhdm ban che sy dau ca tren TTCK*^**.
• Trung Quoc bom 100 ty USD vao he thong ngan hang de tang tinh thanh khoan va huong dong dau tw vao nen kinh t4 thyc
Di lien sau viec dieu chinh ty gid, Trung QuIc thyc hi^n bam 100 ty USD vdo he thong ngdn hdng de tang them tinh thanh khoan cho cac ngan hang ndy.
Ngdy 18/8, Ngdn hang trung uang Trung Quoc rot 48 ty USD vdo Ngan hang Phdt trien Trung Qufic va 45 ty USD vdo Ngan hang Xuat nhap khau Trung Qufic.
Sang ngdy 19-8, Ngan hdng nhan dan Trung QuIc lai tilp tyc rdt them 17 ty USD vdo 14 ngdn hdng khac*^^*.
Muc tieu cua gdi bam tiln lin ndy la nhdm hudng ddng diu tu vdo nin kinh tl thyc nhu xuat khiu va xdy dyng ca sd ha ting thay vi chay vao diu tu tai TTCK*^^*.
4. Mpt si danh gia va nhan xet TTCK Trung QuSc di xudng dnh hu&ng t&i su on dinh c&a nen kinh ti Trung QuSc
Trong thdi gian tdi, TTCK Trung QuIc kha ndng Id tilp tyc xudng die. Vigc nhiiu cfi philu bi ngimg giao djch sS khien cac nha diu tu ngai mua vao hon vi lo cfi philu sau khi mua ciing sg bi ngimg giao dich.
Trudc tinh binh nhu vdy, tdc ddng xSu din nin kinh te Trung Quoc la co kha ndng xdy ra. Theo phdn tich, sd dT tang hudng kinh tl qu^ 2 nam 2015 duy tri dugc miic 7% mdt phin la do TTCK tang qua nhanh vd qua manh. Nlu khong co sy dong gop ciia tbi trudng nay, kinh te quy 2 nam 2015 ciia Trung Qudc chi la 6%. Do vdy, quy 3 vd 4 ndm 2015, vific duy tri sy tang trucmg kinh tl cda Trung Qudc cd the se kho khdn hem. Chinh phu Trung Qudc co thS phai gidm toe dp cdi cdch doanh nghidp nha nudc do phdi gidi ciiu TTCK*^'*.
Ben c^nh do, sy syt gidm ciia TTCK Trung QuIc cung cd tdc dpng xau tdi niem tin cua cdc nhd ddu tu trong va ngoai nudc.
Diu ndm nay, TTCK tang dilm vun vut cua Trung Qudc da giiip tao ra mpt so lugng Idn cdc trieu phii va ty phii mdi is nudc nay, it nhat Id tren gidy td. Nhung gift day, sy sut gidm ciia TTCK Trung Quoc dang khiln ting Idp sieu giau nudc nay dieu diing, it nhit 5 ngudi Trung QuIc dS mat ngoi vi ty phii chi trong vong may tuan qua, khiln si ty phii mdi dugc tao ra 6 nudc ndy trong ndm nay chi cdn 17 ngudi.
8
NGHIEN cdu TRUNG OUAc so 8(168) - 2015•I hodng thj tnr&ng chdng khoan...
Da lao die chdng m$t cua TTCK Trung Quoc da lam xdi mdn nilm tin cua Iyc lugng chinh tren thi trudng nay - hem 90 tri$u nhd dau tu cd nhan chilm khodng 80% toan thi trudng.
Sy can thiep manh ciia nhd nudc Trung Qufic vao thi trudng nhu dd hang trdm ty USD vdo thanh khodn cho thi trudng nay thay vi lam yfin Idng cac nha diu tu nudc ngodi da khien cho hp hodng sg vd vl mat ddi han, cdc nha ddu tu nudc ngodi sB e ngai trong vific tilp tuc diu tu vdo thj trudng Trung Quoc.
5(f s^t gidm cda TTCK Trung Quoc cd the tdc dgng cdn trd' tdi tiin trinh cdi cdch m& ciiu Knh virc tdi chinh Trung Quoc. Dudi tdc dpng cua khung hodng ndy, cdc nhd l^p sdch Trung QuSc cd the gidm toe dp cdi cdch tdi cliinh vd quoc te hda dong NDT.
Nhan td chinh trong ke hogch cai each ciia Ong Tap Can Binh la md cira h? thong tai chinh. Tnmg Quoc can cdc ngdn hang nudc ngoai ho trg trong vi?c md cira va cin cdc nba diu tu cd hiing thii vdi cdc sdn phim tai chinh cua Trung Quoc, bao gdm cac san phim tdi chinh sii dyng ding NDT, mpt nhan tfi chinh trong quoc tl hfia dfing NDT.
Cac phan ling chinh sdch cua Trung Qudc cimg nhu su dfi loi ciia cac nhd chiic trach Tnmg Qufic dfii vdi cac nha diu tu nudc ngodi doi vdi sy syt giam cua TTCK lin ndy cd thl can trd nhung yeu ciu cip bach cua cdi cdch ITnh vyc tdi chinh va lam NGHIEN Clhi TRUNG QUOC so 8(168) - 2015
gidm ddu tu tdi chinh ciia cdc nha dau tu nufifc ngodi vao thi trudng Trung Quoc trong nhimg nam tiep theo.
Tuy nhien, ke cd trong trudng hop TTCK cua Trung QuSc tiep tuc xuong doc thi cdng khd cd khd ndng xdy ra suy thodi kinh te
Thir nhdt, nen kinh te Trung Quoc dua vdo vdn cua cdc ngan hdng nhieu ban la vdn tir TTCK. Dieu nay cd nghTa la ke ca khi TTCK tiep tuc xufing dfic vd cdc cfing ty khong the huy dfing vdn tir thi trudng thi nen kinh te cUng Ichong dimg Igi hdn khi md cdc ngdn hdng vdn dong vai trd tra ddu ma van hdnh bdnh xe kinh te. Va cac ngan hang Trung Quoc se khong roi vao tinh treuig nguy hiem vi hp khfing tham gia nhieu vdo cac giao dich don bdy*^^'.
Ben canh do, hau bet cdc hfi gia dinh cit giii tdi san cua hp dudi dang tien mat va tien gui ngan hang chii khdng phai dudi dang CO phieu. Doi vdi cac cong ty, hau het bp khfing dua tren viec huy dpng cl phieu Id ngudn von ddu tu vd mpt khdi lugng Idn cac ngan hang Tnmg Quoc khfing lien quan nhieu vdi TTCK*^^*.
Thic hai, theo chuyen gia Truang Chi VT, Deutsche Bank thi chi sfi Shanghai Composite van dang la mpt trong cac chi sfi chiing khodn phat trien tfit tren thi trudng toan can, cac nha dau tu tham gia thi trudng tir trudc thang 4 van co Igi nhuan hoac it nhat la hda von tinh tdi thdi diem sut gidm. Chuyen gia Macquarie cua Australian Investment Bank ciing dfing y
9
HA HONG V A N - NGUYEN TH! THU HIEN - NUUTEN i nj i
vdi nhdn dinh nay vd cho rang, sy sut gidm cung tdc dong khfing phai Id Idn dfii vdi ngudi ddn Trung Qudc.
Thir ba, gid tri cd phieu chiem ty le khong Idn trong long tdi sdn cua ngucfi ddn vd tdng vdn xd hdi. Theo Qu Hongbin, chuyen gia kinh tl HSBC tai Trung Qudc, tac dpng thuc te co the thap hon dy tinh do hieu ling thinh vugng ciia TTCK Trung Quoc nho ban nhieu so vdi udc tinh, gia tri cfi phieu chi chiem dudi 15% tai san hfi gia dinh va gia tn phat hanh co phieu chiem khoang dudi 5% tong vfin xd hfii. Tang trudng tieu dung binh quan mfit hp gia dinh chu yeu dugc dan ddt bdi tdng trudng thu nhdp chii khdng phdi su thay ddi cua tdi sdn. De chiing minh them cho luan dilm nay, Cong ty dich vu tai chinh GaveKal nhan xet, TTCK Trung QuIc chi dong vai tro mfit sfi nho hp gia dinh ciia Trung Qufic, khodng tir 20 trieu din 30 trieu hp gia dinh Trung Qufic tir ting lop trung luu den ting Idp giiu co*^***.
Tdc d^iig true tiep vd gidn tiip doi v&i kinh ti Viet Nam
Tdc dpng tryc tilp cua TTCK Trung QuIc dii vdi kinh tl Viet Nam co khd ndng Id khong nhiiu. Dong vln nit ra tir thi trudng Trung QuIc sang thi trudng Viet Nam la khfing ddng kl do quy mfi tM trudng Viet Nam nhd, chua du hip thu dong tien nay'""*.
Tac dfing gian tilp cua TTCK Trung Qufic dfii vdi Viet Nam se co thl nhiiu hon tdc dpng tryc tilp. Thii nhit Id kha
10
nang tac dpng ddi vdi quan he thuang mai giiia hai nudc. Do chiing khodn tyt die nSn nhdp khdu tir Viet Nam vdo Trung QuIc CO the giam do tfing cdu Trung QuIc suy gidm. Mot trong nhirng nfi lye dl fin djnh TTCK cua Trung Qufic la phd gid ding NDT cd the ddn den nhdp sieu tir Trung Quoc cua Viet Nam se tang len nua. Thii hai Id khd ndng tac dpng len TTCK Viet Nam. Do xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Trung Qufic cd the giam, nfin tinh hip dan va kha ndng sinh Idi cua cdc cl philu ciia cdc doanh nghiep cd hang hoa xuit khdu nhieu sang Trung Quoc cd the suy gidm*^^'.
Tdm lai, mdc dii Trung QuIc khdng dinh ddy du dieu kien, nang luc, long tin dl duy tri TTCK fin dinh, tuy nhien da s6 dy dodn cho ring TTCK Trung QuIc co the tiep tuc di xufing trong mpt khodng thdi gian niia, nhung khd nang dl va co le cung it xdy ra. Theo ong Chad Padowitz, Gidm dfic dau tu quy Wingate Asset Management, d Melbourne, Australia "B5t ky sy ho trg nao cua chinh phii Trung Qufic cung se chi cd tdc dung ngdn han dfii vdi thi trudng. Sy hfi trg thyc sy duy nhSt la hp phai tao dugc sy tdng truong can bing cho nin kinh tl. Do la diiu tfit nhat hp cd thl lam"*^^*. Nfin kinh tl thyc Trung Qufic dang trong tinh trang suy gidm tdng trudng, cac doanh nghiep sdn xuat kinh doanh gap rdt nhiiu kho khdn, trong nam 2014, tinh trang tiep can ngufin von kho,
"ddt" cua cdc doanh nghiep het siic noi com. Viec nen lam cua chinh phii Trui^
— NGHIEN curu TRUNG QUtfC so 8(168)-2015
g hodng thi trudng ch&ng khoan....
Qufic chinh Id dua ra cdc chinh sdch tiln te, thue, tai chinh uu dai, nhdm hudng ngufin tien di vao nen kinh tl thyc.
Tu vin dl cua TTCK Trung Qufic, cd the thiy ring cdc vin dl cua nin kinh tl Trung Qufic ngdy cang bfic Ip ro hon. Mac dii, Trung Qufic dang thyc hien chuyin dfii phuang thiic phat trien va tai ca ciu nin kinh te, va cd nhung phdn iing nhanh, quylt liet trong viec gidi ciiu TTCK vd cdc van de kinh te vT mo, nhung ro rang rdng, nhiing van de npi tai cua thl chi kinh tl khong the giai quyet de dang mpt sdm, mpt chieu.
CHU THICH:
(1) Gid tri von hoa Itru thong tren TTCK Thugng Hdi vd Thdm Quyin da gidm 6.000 ti NDT trong I ludn 0'mB'^-MM^i^-Mi^'>M 67ii^7t), http://news.xinhuanet.com/2015-07/04/
c_1115814922.htm
(2) Hdng tram cdng ty Trung Qudc ngimg giao dich cd phiiu, http://vneconomy.vn/the-gioi/hang- tram-cong-ty-trung-quoc-ngung-giao-dich-co- phieu-2015070704013638.htm
(3) Timothy B. Lee (2005), Chinese stocks see another day of turmoil, http://www.vox.com/
20}5/8/23/919589I/china-stock~market-crash (4) Khdng thi dii khd ndng de trdnh khdi "rai ", cdc cong ty ngirng giao djch dd gdn 1000
(m^^W^m- f ? ) { * r ^ K i a i £ ^ ^ ) , http://news.
xinhuanet.com/fortiine/2015-07/08/c_127996425.
htm
(5) Hang trdm cong ty Trung Qudc ngimg giao dich cd phieu, http://vneconomy.vn/the-gioi/hang- tram-cong-ty-tning-quoc-ngung-giao-dich-co- phieu-2015070704013638.htm
(6) Khong the du khd nang de trdnh khoi "rai ", cdc cong ty ngirng giao dich da gdn 1000 f K t ^ t e m ^ f e " f ? W - ' ^ w ] B 3 £ ^ ^ ) , http://news .xlnhuanet.com/fortune/2015-
07/08/c_l 27996425 .hrni
(7) Hdng tram cdng ty Trung Qudc ngimg giao dich CO phieu, http://vneconomy vn/the-gioi/hang- tram-cong-ty-trung-quoc-ngung-giao-dich-co- phteu-2015070704013638.htm
{8) Hdng tram cdng ty Trung Qudc ngirng giao dich cd phieu http://vnecononiy.vn/the-gioi/hang- n^m-cong-ty-ming-quoc-ngung-giao-dich-co- phieu-2015070704013638.htm
(9) Bdn td bdo l&n Tdn Hoa Xa, Nhdn ddn nhdt bdo... ddn dudng lien tuc phdt ngdn, no l\rc thuc day thl trudng co phieu A thodt fchoi "khung hodng"
nhdt thdi, http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2015- 07/06/c_^ 127988080.htm
(10) Ngdn hdng Trung uang Trung Qudc gidm ti le du trir bdt buoc de kich thich nen kinh te, http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/china/2015/04 /150419_china_bank_nT
(11) http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2015- 06/27/c_ 127957848.htm
(12) John Divine, 3 China stock will crash in 2015http://investorplace.com/2015/01 /china-stock- market-crash-2015/view-alI/#.VZy2kVJOJLM
(13) Ndng ddn Trung Qudc do xo ddu lu chung khodn, http://vneconomy.vn/the-gioi/nong-dan- trung-quoc-do-xo-dau-tu-chung-khoan- 201506l0044622441.htm
NGHIEN Cl)U TRUNG QUOC so 8 ( 1 6 8 ) - 2 0 1 5
11
HA HbNG V A N - N G U Y E N i n [ i n U
^.
(14) Chung khodn ludt doc, Trung Qudc mdt 2.800 li USD http://tuoitre.vn/tin/the-gioi/chung- khoan-tuoI-doc-tnjng-quoc-mat-2800-ti- usd/772716.html
(15) TTCK sut gidm sdu bdo dgng ngudn tiin ngdn hdng dd vao (TTCK) f&ti U^^M-^^^
^'if ^ ^ A i t i S ^ ^ , http://news.xinhuanet.com/
2015-07/07/c_I27993692.htm
(16) TTCK syt gidm sdu bdo dgng nguon tien ngdn hdng dd vdo (TTCK) WLIUU^^-^^^^
^ fi" ^ ^Kti^¥f , http://news.xinhuanet.com /2015-07/07/cJ 27993692.htm
(17) http://www.baomoi com/4-nguyen-nhan- khien-chung-khoan-Tmng-Quoc-lao- doc/127/l6989356.epi
(18) John Divine, 3 China stock will crash in 2015. http://investorplace.com/2015/01/china- stock-market-crash-2015/view-
all/#.VZy2kVJ0JLM
(19) Nhat b4o Chihig k h o ^ : Long lin cua Tiiu Cuang chinh id long tin ciia thi trudng cd phiiu Trung Qudc, http://news .xinhuanet.com/
fortune/2015-07/06/c_l 27988080.htm (20) Chung khodn lugt ddc. Trung Qudc mdt 2.800 ti USD , http://tuoitre.vn/tin/the-gioi/chung- khoan-tuot-doc-trung-quoc-mat-2800-ti- usd/772716.html
(21) China unleashed $209 billion to save the stock market, http://v™w.businessinsider.coni/r- china-banks-Iend-209-billion-to-margin-lender-to- lift-stock-prices-media-2015-7
(22) Trung Qudc dd cho vay 209 ty USD di cuu thf trudng. http://thegioitiepthi.net/thoi-su-thi- truong /nung-quoc-da-ch(>-vay-209-ty-usd-de-cuu- thi-truong/
(23) Trung Qudc tiep luc phd gid nhdn ddn te, http://kinhdoanh.vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/quoc- te/trung-quoc-tiep-tuc-pha-gia-nhan-dan-te- 3262668.html.
12
(24) Yi Xianrong, Will RMB enter a new round of depreciation?http://www.chinausfocus.coin/
finance- economy/will-the-rmb-enter-a-new-round- of-depreciation/
(25) Trung Qudc bam han 100 ty vdo hf ih&ig ngdn hdng, http;//nhipcaudautu.vn/tai-chinh/tlii- truong-quoc-te/trung-quoc-bom-hon-100-ty-usd- vao-he-thong-ngan-hang-3282568/
(26) China is so worried about growth it just pumped SI00 billion into banks lo kickstart the econo/wyhttp://www.businessinsider.coni/a^-china- injects-nearly-lOO-bn-into-banks-for-economy-lift- 2015-8
(27) Tin kinh t^, ThSng tin xa Vi?t Nam, 23 thing 7 nam 2015
(28) http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-china- wall-street-crash-stock-market-still-a-long-way-to- go-2015-7#ixzz3fH7aZial
(29) http://www.businessinsider.coni/most- chinese-investors-and-corporations-are-not- invested-in-stock-market-2015-7
(30) http://v™'w .businessinsider.com/most"
chinese-investors-and-corporations-are-not- invested-in-stock-market-2015-7#ixzz3fJmcVmGd
(31) Tfn Thanh (2015), "Dai h6ng thuy" tren TTCK Trung Qu6c: Tac d^ng tiic tfi&i t6i Vift Nam chua Idn. http://baodauttJ.vn/dai-hong-thuy- tren-ttck-trung-quoc-tac-dong-UiC-thoi-toi-viet- nam-chua-lon-d30481 .html
(32) Phan Minh Ngpc (2015), Chung khoan Trung Quoc lao ddc vd dnh hudng din VN hllp://www. thesaigonlimes. vn/132993/Chung- khoan-Trung-Quoc-lao-doc-va-anh-huong-den- VN.html
(33) Han nua thdng, chung khodn Trung Quoc svt gdn 25%, http://vneconomy.vn/the-gioi/hoii- nua-thang-chung-khoan-trung-quoc-sut-gan-25- 20150630110531908.httn
— NGHIEN Cdu TRUNG QUtfC 50 6(168)-2015
