MOI T R L T O N G OAU T l / 6 CHAU PHI
1. Cd hoi
De cdi thien dieu kien pbdl trien kinh le, chau Phi cbii trgng Ibu but ddu lu nudc ngodi ehu yeu dya vao liem luc to ldn cua khu vuc minh. Xu bucing loan cau hod vd dd thj hod dang mang lai cho chdu Phi nhirng ccr hdi dau tu mdi. Ben canh dd, mdi Irudng ddu tu a chdu Phi cting dang tiem an nhieu rui ro hern cho cdc nha dau tu.
Chdu Phi chiem khoang 15"o dan sd \a 1/5 lanh thd todn the gic'ri nhung chi dong gdp 2% san lucmg loan cau. Hien liii. da_\ la nicil trong nhirng khu \ irc ngheo ddi \a kem pbal trien nhat trcMi the gidi. Mae dii \ii_\.
chau Phi \an cdn rat nhieu kha nang e;ii thien \a phat trien cac \ img kinh le cimg nhu cac thi IrucVnu tromz \ eu cua minh.
Bang 1:
Toe do tang trudng (%) Lam phdt (%)
M2/GDP (%) Quy mo chinh phu (chi lieu %GDP) Dir trtr qudc le (ihang nhap khau) Ng (%GDP)
Ch
1
!
i 1 1
iu Phi ngay Dong Nam (1980)
7,3 17,0 27,2 19.4
3,6 3,4
nay A
so vdi Dong N .Mot so nu'6(
Phi chon loc
i 6.4 7.1
27,9 22,8
10.0
i 9,9 im A thi
• chiiu (2007)
i
- - 4
i
ip ky 1980 C hiiu Phi Clin Xahara (2007)
6.6 7.9 62.4 25,1
5.8 '^2 ">
.\giidn: IMF. African Department. Sub-Saharan .Africa: Private Capital Fueling Growth.
.May 22. 2008
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI A IKIAG nityu so 07 (47) thiing 7/2009 51
Nguyen PhUdng Anh MOI trUdng dau tU.
2. Dong luTc phat trien kinh te chu yeu Tang Irudng kinh le ciia khu vye chau Phi chu yeu dya vdo lieu diing. Dan sd dang lang len ciing vdi Ihu nhap dugc cdi thien dang lam lang sire mua ddi vdi nhieu mat hdng nhu dien Ihoai. cdc trang thiel bi bien dai vd xe bai. Quan trgng ban ntra Id nhirng lien bd trong cdc cbinb sach tien te, ludt. Ihuong mai. thue vd cdc chinh sdch tdi chinh dang icio mang lai nhieu hieu qud. Ngodi ra. cdc ngudn vdn ldn chii yeu Id thdng qua vien irg vd dau lu true liep nudc ngoai dang duge dau lu vao he thdng ca sd ha ldng. cac ngdnh dien lu vd Ihdng lin lien lac. Nhd dd. chdu Phi da dat dugc tdc do phdt irien manh me trong mdl thdp ky trd lai dav'. Tdc do pbdl trien kinb le d chau Phi can Xahara dat trung binh 6%/nam ke tir nam 2004.
3. Tai nguyen thien nhien la nguon Ic^i chu yeu cua kinh te chau Phi
Chdu Phi la khu vuc tap trung ngudn tdi nguyen ihien nhien Idn cua the gidi. The gidi dudng nhu khdng bao gid Ihod man nhu cau ve hdng hod. cbinb dieu ndy da lao dieu kien phat trien mdt sd ITnb vye irong nen kinb te chau Phi nhu: ndng nghiep. dau mo. khi ga lu nhien. kim cuang. vdng. bdng. nhdm \d cdc vat lieu ihay the. Trong thyc le. ,80% gid tri xudl khdu cua luc dia ndv Id cdc san pham dugc tao ra tir ngudn tdi ngu}en thien nhien.
Chdu Phi da tra thdnh luc dia cung cdp nhieu nbal ngudn nang lugng can thiel cua the gidi. Chang ban. mdt trong nhung ngudn dau mo Idn nhdl the gidi nam a Nigeria.
Ngoai ra. cdc nude Angola. Sudan vd Guine Xich dao gan day cung bat dau tham dd them nhirng ngudn ddu mo mcii hoae tang lugng ddu khai tbdc lu nhung ngudn san cd. Cac nudc san xuat dau mo cua chdu Phi dat tdc do lang irudng GDP khoang 9.9%o nam 2008 so V di 8,8% nam 2007
Biing 2: Tai nguyen thien nhien ciia Chau Phi (% trong dy trir toan cau)
40%
V Klioiris skn 30%
20%
LSm! 17%
Ngudn: -Best Asset Class, BAC Africa Natural Resources
Tgp chi nghien euu CHAI' PHI A TRl'^G » d \ G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009
Moi trudng dau tU. Nguyen PhUdng Anh
Bang 3: Thu-ong mai chau Phi can Xahara - My
(trieu USD)
2004
2005
2006
2007
8,4
10,3
12.1
14.3
35,9
50,4
59,1
Xuat khau ciia My Nhap khau ciia My
67,4
Ngudn: International Monetary Fund, Unblocking Trade-Finance & Development.
December 2006
Djeh vu vien thdng, Internet dang Id Mac dii van cdn nhidu ihaeh thirc. nhimg nhung ngdnh cd tdc do lang trudng nhanh d chau Phi vdn dang tiep tue edi thien nang luc chdu Phi. Trong ITnb vuc dien thoai. chdu eua minh trong he thdng thucmg mai loan Phi Id mdt trong nhung thi trudng pbdl trien cdu. Theo biing 3. tdng gid tri ihucrng mai nhanh nhdt tren todn cdu. lao ra nhieu co hdi giira My vd chau Phi da tang len gan 15%
cho ngdnh thuang mai cung nhu cho tirng trong nam 2007. Cung trong nam nay. nhap doanh nghiep trong nudc. Vi du nhu Nigeria. khau thuc phdm vd dieh \ u cua chdu Phi lir mdl ddt nudc ddng dan nhat d chdu Phi can
Sahara da lieu Ibu gdn 500.000 chiec dien ihoai vdo nam 1999. Den nay. con sd dd da tang Ien khoang 36 trieu chiec vd chae chan cdc djeh vu nay se cd nhieu co hdi pbdl trien han nira khi ma dan sd dang tang len. nen kinh te cd nhieu khdi sac. Trong ITnb vuc Internet, sd ngudi sir dung Internet a chau Phi da lang rat nhanh. chiem 14%o sd ngudi sir dung tren loan the gidi. Ghana. Kenya vd Senegal cung dang lim kiem nbtmg nganh nghe cd khd nang pbdl trien. Ihdnh lap cdc lrung lam tra Idi dien thoai vd xir ly sd lieu de cung cdp cho cdc nudc phat trien.
My tang 14% so vdi nam 2006 vd tang gdn gap ddi so vdi nam 2004. Kbi xudt khau hang hod van Id ehia khod de chau Phi hgi nhdp \di thuang mai the gidi thi chau Phi cdn phai da dang hod hem nira cdc hdng hod cdng nghiep vd djeh vu. ihiel bi dien tu \ a del may.
4. Thj tru'dng chau Phi la nguon ldi chu yeu cua khu vu'c chau A
Trung Qude vd An Do la hai nude eung chiem 10% kim ngach xudl nhap khdu eua chau Phi \d mdl dieu dae biel Id xuat khau ciia chdu Phi ehu yc^u Id sang Trung Qudc.
Kbi md hdu hel cdc nircVc tren the gidi nluip
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI A Till >G »0>G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009 53 .J
N g u y e n PhUdng A n h Moi trUdng dau tU.
khau hang hod vd dich vu lir Trung Qudc ihi xudl khau ciia chau Phi vao Trung Qudc lai lang lrung binh 40%o/nam kd tir nam 2002.
Ngodi ra, Trung Qudc da ird ihanh chii lin dung mdi ciia chau Phi, ngdy cdng lang cudng ung hd ve ldi chinh Ihdng qua dau tu true liep, gidm ng, trg cdp va cho vay. De ddm bdo dieu nay. chinh phii Trung Qudc da lang chi lieu Irong nhieu ITnh vuc ciia chdu Phi nhu dau md, gido due, che bien thuc phdm. giao thdng vd lien lac; tiep tyc dau lu khoang 12 ty USD Irong 3 nam ddu lien ke lir nam 2007 vd dy linh se lang khoang 20 ly USD Irong 5 nam liep theo. Rieng ngdnh che bien dau. linb den cudi nam 2006, Trung Qudc da ddu tu vdo chau Phi 11,7 ly USD, liep luc lang Ihem 5 ly USD vd cd ke hoach cho vay 3 ty USD Irong khodng 3 nam liep theo. Cdc ngudn vdn cua Trung Qudc cbu yeu dugc dau lu vdo cdc nudc dau mo nbu Angola, Nigeria, Sudan vd Zambia.
5. Ldi ich cua cac nha dau tu* dang tang nhanh
Ddi vdi cdc nudc mdi ndi thi ddu lu trye liep nudc ngodi ddng vai trd quan trgng trong qua trinh phdt trien kinh le. Rat nhieu ddng vdn dang dau tu vdo ngdnh cdng nghe va dao lao ky nang. dieu dd cdng ldm nhanh them qud trinh pbal trien cua cdc nudc nay.
Tai chau Phi. gid nhdn cdng thdp. tiem nang pbdl trien thuang mai vd tinh thanh khodn dugc cai ihien la lyc hiil cdc ddng vdn ddu lu lu nhan irong cdc ngudn vdn qudc le.
Ddu lu iryc liep nudc ngodi liep luc Id ngudn ddu lu Icm ciia vdn lu nhdn lai chau Phi can Sahara, hien lai da vugt qua 20 ly USD.
Trong khi Nam Phi va cac nudc xudl khau ddu tiep luc Id chii the cbinb thu bill ddng vdn EDI, thi dau tu vdo cdc nudc cdn lai trong khu vuc chau Phi can Sahara cting dang lang len, dat khodng 4,1 ty USD nam 2006. Mdl sd cdng ly nudc ngodi dang dau lu vdo khu vye ndy bao gdm Air Erance, Exxon, Shell va DeBeer.
Bang 4: Dong von dau tu tu nhan (ty USD
6 0 50 4 0
>0 20 10 0 10
" ' i 1 1
• • • • TOTAL
1 1
tV.J
:• ^li
, • !
I I I
2000 2001 2002 200 3 2 004 2005 200 6 2 007
Nguon: IMF, African Department, Sub-Saharan Africa: Private Capital Fueling Growth, May 22, 2008
Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI A TKC^G nd:\G so 07 (47) thiing 7/2009
Moi trUdng dau tU... Nguyen PhUdng Anh
Cac ddng vdn ddu tu tang len nhanh chdng dugc phan dnh thdng qua viec cdi ihien khdi lugng vdn dau tu, sy phdt banh trai phieu qudc le cua cdc nudc chau Phi va so lugng cdc cdng ly niem yet ngay cdng tang tren thj trudng chimg khodn dia phuang. Trong giai doan 2000 - 2007 da cd them 66 thj trudng chimg khodn dia phuang dugc niem yet. Cdc cdng ty ed gia tri tdi san tren 100 irieu USD niem yet tren thj trudng chimg khodn da tang tir 34 len 109 cdng ty trong eiing mdt giai doan.
Nhu'ng kho khan hien tai
Tuy kinh te chau Phi da irdi qua nhieu thay ddi quan trgng trong thai gian qua nhung con ducmg ddi van dang d phia trudc.
Nhtrng gdnh nang ng xau vd te nan tham nhung van edn tdn tai la nbtmg can trd ddi voi qud trinh phdt trien kinb te trong tuong lai ciia chdu Phi. Nhieu nude chau Phi da nd
luc de thodt khoi danh sdch nbimg nudc cd cbl sd phdt trien eon ngudi thdp nhat, nhung ket qud cdn rdt ban che do linb irang \a bdi va cbinb tri bat dn, cdc cude noi chien, biio ddng, thj trudng vdn kem pbdl trien, hu\
ddng tren tbi trudng trong nucic ibdp, khdi lugng giao dich ihuong mai nho, kha nana gidi ngan kem, lam phdt, nhimg thav ddi bdt thudng ciia gid ea, cdc qu\ dinh khdng rd rang ve cac mat bdng kinh doanh vd eac rao cdn thuang mai. Ben canh dd la ede \an de nhu thieu thdng lin xde ihuc \ e ldi cbinb, gid cao, vdn de thue, kha nang thanh khoan gidm. bdo cdo thieu chat che \ d ddu lu ngoai te mao hiem...Tdt ea cdc yeu id dd da gav ra mire do rui ro eao kbi dau tu v do thi irucrng chau Phi.
Ngudn: Van Eck Securities Corporation.
Distrihulor 99 Park Avenue. .\cir )'ork. .Veu York 10016. vancck.coni
Liroc djeh: Nguyen Phuang Anh Vien Nghien eiiu Chau Phi va Trung Dong
Tap chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI A TKIAG f»d.\G so 07 (47) thiing 7/2009 55
