QUAN TR!-QUAN LY
MC< RONG VIEC LAM VA HAM Y CHINH SACH (TRlJCfNG HCfP NGHIEN ClfU d CAC TINH VUNG DUYEN HAI VIET NAM)
• DINH PHI HO
TOM TAT:
Nghien citu nay nham danh gia cac yd'u to' dnh htfdng den md rdng viec lam cua vung Duyen hdi Viet Nam, Nhdm tdc gia dtfa vao dtf lieu bang (186 quan sat) cua 21 tinh thanh trong Vung giai doan 2011-2018, ke'thdp ham hdi quy dtf lieu bang. Ba md binhhdiquy cdban dd'i vdi dtf lidu bang dtfdc sii dung, gdm: (i) Md hinh hoi quy iruyen thd'ng theo phtfdng phap binh phtfdng nhd nhat (Pooled OLS regression model), (ii) Tac dong ngau nhien (REM), (iii) Tac ddng cd' dinh (FEM). Ke't qud nghien ctfu cho tha'y, md hinh tdc ddng cd' dmh la phu hdp va cac ye'u td' tdc dong de'n md rdng vide lam, bao gim: (i) Cd ca'u gid tri nganh cdng nghiep cua tinh, thanh phd' trong tdng gid tri nganh cdng nghiep ca ntfdc; (ii) Tdc dd tang trtfdng GDP; (iii) Chi sd' ndng Itfc canh tranh cap linh; (iv) So'lau danh bat bai san xa bd; (v) Thu nhap binh quan bang nam cua ngtfdi lao ddng trong doanh nghiep; (vi) Ty le hoc sinh tot nghiep trung hoc pho thdng.
TiJf khda: Viec lam, viing Duyen hai, hdi quy dtf heu bang.
1. Gidi thidu
Nam trong chudi cac chinh sach, chie'n Itfdc phat trien kinh te', kinh te' bien dtfdc Viet Nam he't stfc chii trong. Dang Cdng san Viet Nam va Chinh phu Viet Nam da cd nhi^u Nghi quye't, Chi thj ve phal tnen kinh te'bien ttf nhtfng nam dau thap nien 1990. Dang chu y nha't la Hdi nghi Ian thtf ttf Ban Cha'p hanh Trung tfdng Dang khda X da thdng qua Nghi quye't so' 09-NQ/TW ngay 09/02/2007 ve Chie'n Itfdc hien Viel Nam den nam 2020. Viet Nam cd dtfdng bd bien dai 3.260 km, tren I trieu km- them luc dia vdi nhieu dao, quan dao; nhieu tai nguyen bien nhtf hai san, dau
khi; tiem nang kinh te'bien nhtf du hch, cang bien, giao thdng bien, siJa chtfa tau, thuyen, dich vu hau can, cd the hinh thanh viang phdt trie'n cao, lao hieu tfng thuc day cdc viing, mien kinh te' khac CLing phat tnin.
Tuy nhien, de phat tnen kinh te' bid'n, ngoai viec khai thac td't cac tiem nang, ldi thd' v^ bien, can chu trong khai thac td't ngudn Itfc lao ddng, trong dd dang chu y la Itfc Itfdng lao ddng tai cac tinh. thanh phd'Duyen hai. Phal trien kinh le'bie'n phdi gan lien vdi dn dinh ddi sd'ng, viec lam va tao viec lam mdi cho ngtfdi lao ddng cac tinh, thanh phd'Duyen hdi.
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Vdi cac hiep dinh thtfdng mai ttf do dtfdc Viet Nam ky ke't vdi cac to chtfc, cdc ntfdc, nhtf: Lien minh chau Au (EU), Khu vtfc mau dich ttf do cdc ntfdc Ddng - Nam A (AFTA), Lien minh kmh te' A - Au (EAEU), Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c dangmdra cho Viet Nam nhtfng trien vong phat trien kinh le' nhtfng cCing khdng it khd khan, thdch thtfc, trong do cd thach thtfc ve viec lam. Van de tranh chap chu quyen bien, dao tren bien Ddng nhtfng nam gan day tao nen nhtfng tiem an nhieu rui ro dang de doa de'n viec lam va ddi sd'ng cua ngtf dan va ngtfdi lao ddng d nhieu nganh nghe kinh te'bien nhtf dau khi, du lich bien, cang bien, giao thdng bien, khai thdc, ddnh bat hdi san. Do dd, md rdng viec lam la mdi trong thach thtfc cua phal trie'n kinh te' viing Duyen hai.
Tuy nhien, thdi gian qua, chtfa cd nhieu nghien ctfu mdt each cd he thd'ng de gidi thich cau hdi dat ra: Ye'u td' nao anh htfdng de'n md rdng viec lam? Van de dat ra cung la thach thtfc dd'i vdi cac nha nghien ctfu va nhtfng nha chinh sach d Viet Nam. Bai vie't nay tSp trung vao 3 noi dung chinh: (1) Cung cap nen tang cd sd Iy thuye't ve viec lam; (2) Md hinh dinh Itfdng xac dinh cac yeu td'anh htfdng dd'n vide lam; (3) Gdi y chinh sdch nhdm md rdng viec lam
2. Cd s^ ly thuyd't va thtfc nghiem 2.1. C(fsdly thuyet vd mo hinh nghien cdu Theo To chtfc Lao dong Qud'c te - ILO (2008), viec lam la mdt tinh trang trong do cd stf tra cdng bang tien hoac hien vat, do cd stf tham gia tich ctfc. trtfc tie'p, cd tinh cha't ca nhan vao mdt boat ddng san xua't ra hang hda hoac cung cap dich vu dd' dtfdc ira Itfdng hoac lim kie'm ldi nhuan.
Theo Luat Viec lam Viet Nam (Qud'c hdi Viet Nam (2013), viec lam la boat ddng lao ddng tao ra thu nhap ma khdng bi phdp lual cam.
Viec lam, trtfdc he't la lam cdng viec de nhan dtfdc tien Itfdng, lien cdng hoac hien vat ttf cdng viec do; Hai la, cdng viec dem lai Idi ich cho ban than, ma ban than cd quyen su" dung hay sd htfu mot phan hay loan bd ttf lieu sdn xua't de' thtfc hien cdng viec; Ba la, lam cdng viec cho chinh gia dinh minh va khdng difdc tra thu lao dtfdi ba't ctf binh Ihtfc nao.
Viec lam cua qud'c gia dtfdc xac dinh: ty le phan tram (%) nhtfng ngtfdi cd viec lam (dang
lam vide) chie'm trong td'ng so' dan trong do tuoi cd kha nang lao ddng dtfdc quy dinh va hien dang sd'ng tai Viet Nam {GSO, 2015).
Smith, A. (1976) cho rang ngudn gd'c cua stf giau cd la lao ddng; lao ddng tao ra gia tri, khdng chi lu'dng ma cd ldi nhuan va ldi ttfc. Gia trj ma ngtfdi cdng nhan cong thdm vao gia tri vat chat dtfdc chia thanh 2 phan: mdt phan tra Itfdng cho cdng nhan, phan cdn lai la Idi nhuan cua doanh nghiep. Gidi chu se khdng thud cdng nhan ne'u ho thd'y khdng nhan diWc doanh thu ttf viec ban san pham do cdng nhan lam ra cao hdn td'ng sd vd'n ma bo bd ra. Marx K. (1887) cho rang, dau tif tang (tang ttf ban) se lam gia tang nang sua't lao ddng va tang cau stfc lao ddng; do dd, khd nang cd viec lam ciia ngtfdi lao ddng se dtfdc gia tang.
Theo Marshall, A. (1920), de' bdo dam viec lam thi va'n de diiu tie't cung va cau cua thi trtfdng lao ddng cd y nghTa r§l quan trong va stf dieu tid'tnay dtfdc thtfc hien hoan toan ttf ddng theo quy lual thi trtfdng. Pigou C. (1920) cho rang, tha't nghiep la do lien Itfdng cao, khi giam tien Itfdng se lang viec lam vi se giam chi phi san xua't va lam gia (dug kha ndng thue mtfdn them lao ddng. Hdn ntfa, giam chi phi san xua't se lam giam gia ca hang hda; qua dd lam tang stfc mua, kich thich dau ttf md rdng san xua't, lam gia tang cau lao ddng; tdc dong ttf cdu lao dong thtfc le' se la yeu to' xac dinh viec lam. Keynes, J.M. (1936) cho rang, tinh trang viec lam dtfdc the hien qua md'i quan he, tac ddng gitfa cac yd'u td' thi trtfdng lao tldng, tinh trang that nghiep, tinh trang san xuat, khd'i Itfdng sdn pham va quy md thu nhap. Khi thu nhap tang Idn thi lieu dung cung tang len. Tuy nhien, do tam ly cua cdng chiing, td'c do lang cua lieu diing thap hdn td'c do tang cua thu nhap, lam cho cau tieu dung giam ttfdng dd'i so vdi ihu nhap, din de'n mot bo phan hang hda khdng bdn dtfdc.
Day la nguyen nhan ddn den khung boang, anh htfdng dd'n san xuat chu ky sau, lam giam viec lam, gia tang tha'l nghiep. Nguyen nhan cua khung hoang va that nghiep la do thie'u hut hieu qua cua cau, vi vay, can thiet phai lang quy m6 hieu qua cua cau de ngan ngtfa khung hoang va that nghiep. Do dd, de' gidi quye't viec lam, tdng thu nhap ddi hdi phai stf dung cdc cdng cu, chinh sach kinh te nham khuye'n khich dau ttf va giam
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tie't kiem, md rdng Itfdng cau, nhtf vay mdi giai quye't du'dc tinh trang khung hoang va that nghiep. Mdi stf gia tang dau ttf deu keo theo stf gia tang cua cau bo sung cdng nhdn, cau ve ttf lieu san xua't; do vay, lam tang cau tieu ddng, tang gid hang hda, tang viec lam cho cdng nhan.
Phillips, A. W. (1958) da dtfa ra Iy thuye't dtfdng cong Phillips, cho tha'y md'i ttfdng quan ty le nghich gitfa td'c do lam phdt va mtfc do that nghiep: td'c dp lam phdt cang cao thi mtfc do that nghiep cang tha'p (viec lam dtfdc md rdng), va ngtfdc lai. Lewis, W. A. (1954) dtfa ra Iy thuye't nhi nguyen ve van de lao viec !am bdng each chuyen dich lao ddng gitfa hai khu vtfc cua nen kmh te'. Da't dai ngay cang khan hie'm, trong khi lao ddng ngay cang tang dan de'n dtf thtfa lao ddng d khu vtfc ndng nghiep. Dich chuye'n lao ddng dtf thtfa ttf khu vtfc ndng nghiep sang khu vtfc cdng nghiep se ndng cao tang trtfdng va viec lam cho nen kinh td' Fei, J.C.H and Ranis G.
(1964) tie'p tuc md rdng Iy thuye't nhi nguyen, cho rang, khu vtfc cdng nghiep cd nhieu kha nang Itfa chpn cdng nghe sdn xua't, bao gdm cdng nghd siJ dung nhieu lao ddng nen cd the' thu hut he't Itfdng lao ddng dtf thtfa cua khu vtfc ndng nghiep. Tuy nhien, viec di chuye'n lao ddng Id do chenh lech thu nhap du Idn gitfa lao ddng cua 2 khu vtfc quye't dmh: khu vtfc cdng nghiep chi cd the thu hut lao ddng ndng nghiep dtf thtfa khi cd stf chenh lech tien cdng du Idn so vdi khu vtfc ndng nghiep.
Theo Oshima H.T. (1962), mdi quan he giffa 2 khu vtfc ndng nghiep va cdng nghiep dtfa tren nhtfng dac die'm khdc biet ciia cac ntfdc dang phdt trien chau A- gid mua: nen ndng nghiep liia ntfdc cd tinh thdi vu cao, Nen ndng nghiep liia ntfdc van thie'u lao dong luc dinh cao ciia thdi vu va chi dtf thtfa lao ddng trong mua nhan rdi. Vi vay, can gitf lai lao ddng ndng nghiep va chi tao them viec 1dm trong nhtfng thang nhan rdi bang each tang vu, da dang hda cay trdng vat nudi va sii dung lao ddng nhan rdi trong ndng nghiep vao cac nganh san xua't cdng nghiep can nhieu lao ddng.
Nhtf vay, Itfc Itfdng lao ddng trong ndng nghiep se dtfdc SIJ-dung het. Harris, J.R & Todaro. M P.
(1970) nghien ctfu viec lam qua stf di chuyen lao ddng tren cdsd thtfc hien dieu tie'l thu nhap, lien Itfdng giffa cac khu vtfc kinh te'khac nhau. Nhtfng
ngtfdi lao ddng d khu vtfc ndng thdn cd thu nhap trung binh tha'p. Ho Itfa chon quye't dmh di chuyen lao ddng ttf vung cd thu nhap thap sang khu vtfc thanh thi cd thu nhap cao hdn. Nhtf vay, qua irlnh di chuyen lao ddng mang tinh ttf phat, phu thudc vao stf Itfa chpn, quye't dinh ciia cdc ca nhan.
Do do, viec lam la van de trung tam trong phat trie'n kinh te. Vide lam dtfdc md rpng tren cd sd cdn bang cung cau tren thi irtfdng lao ddng, tang trtfdng kinh te', tang dau ttf, dich chuyen lao ddng theo quy md, bieu qua nganh san xua't va md'i quan he hdp ly gitfa lam phat va that nghiep.
Thdng qua cac nghien ctfu ngodi ntfdc vd trong trong ntfdc ke ttf nhtfng nam 1990 de'n nay (Bang 1), cd the nhdn dien cac ye'u id' anh htfdng de'n md rdng viec lam bao gdm 3 nhdm ye'u to': (i) Nhdm ye'u to' kinh te^; (ii) Nhdm ye'u td' vi mdi trtfdng dau ttf; (lii) Nhdm ye'u td' ve nhdn Itfc.
(Hinh 1).
Ccf cdu gid tri sdn xuat nganh cong nghiep: Ty le gia tri san xua't nganh cdng nghidp ciia tinh, thanh phd'trong tong gid tri san xua't nganh cdng nghiep ciia ca ntfdc, do Itfdng quy md kinh te nganh cdng nghiep ciia cac tinh, thdnh phd'. Ty le nay cang Idn thi khd nang tich luy tai dau ttf, md rdng sdn xual cdng cao, cau lao ddng cang lang, qua dd cho phep lao ra nhieu viec lam mdi cho ngtfdi lao ddng.
GDP Ndng nghiep: Ty trpng GDP cua nganh Ndng nghiep trong td'ng GDP ciia nen kinh te'cua tinh, thanh phd'; do Itfdng quy md kinh te' ciia nganh Ndng nghiep. GDP nganh ndng nghiep cua tinh, thdnh phd cang Idn, ihi quy md tich lijy tdi dau ttf, mdrdng san xua't ciia nganh cang Idn, cau lao ddng trong nganh cang tang cho phep giai quye't dtfdc nhieu viec lam cho ngtfdi lao ddng.
Tdc do tdng trUdng GDP dia phuang (Gross regional domestic product. GRDP): Td'c dd tang trtfdng GDP dia phtfdng cang cao thi nin kinh te cang phdt trien. Theo do, quy md tich luy tdi dau ttf, md rdng sdn xua't cdng Idn He qua la c^u lao dong cdng tang, dem lai nhieu kha nang giai quye't viec Idm cho ngtfdi lao ddng.
Quy mo dien tich nuoi trong thuy .sdn: Dac ihu ciia cac dia phtfdng viing Duyen hai vdi the' manh nudi trong thiiy sdn. Dien tich mat ntfdc nudi trdng thiiy san, do Itfdng quy md san xua't ciia
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Vdi cdc hiep dinh thtfdng mai ttf do dtfdc Viet Nam ky ket vdi cac to chtfc, cac ntfdc, nhtf: Lien minh chau Au (EU), Khu vifc mau dich lif do cdc ntfdc Ddng - Nam A (AFTA), Lien minh kinh te' A - Au (EAEU), Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c dang md ra cho Viet Nam nhtfng tnen vpng phdt trie'n kinh te' nhtfng cung khdng it khd khan, thach thtfc, trong dd cd thdch thtfc ve viec lam. Va'n de tranh chap chii quyen bien, dao tren bie'n Ddng nhtfng nam gan day tao nen nhtfng tiem an nhieu riii ro dang de dpa de'n viec lam va ddi sd'ng ciia ngtf ddn vd ngtfdi lao ddng d nhieu nganh nghe kinh te' bien nhtf dau khi, du Hch bie'n, cdng bien, giao thdng bien, khai thdc, ddnh bat hai san. Do do, md rpng viec Idm la mdt trong thach thtfc cua phat trien kinh te viing Duyen hai.
Tuy nhien, thdi gian qua, chtfa cd nhieu nghien ctfu mdt each cd he thd'ng de' giai thich cau hdi ddt ra: Ye'u td' nao anh htfdng de'n md rpng viec lam? Van de dat ra cQng la thach thtfc dd'i vdi cdc nhd nghien ctfu va nhtfng nha chinh sach d Viet Nam. Bai vie't nay tap trung vao 3 ndi dung chinh: (1) Cung ca'p nen lang cd sd ly thuye't ve viec 1dm; (2) Md hlnh dinh ltfdng xac dinh cdc ye'u td'anh htfdng de'n viec lam; (3) Gdi y chinh sdch nham md rpng viec lam
2. Ccf sd ly thuye't va thtfc nghiem 2.1. Ccfs&ly thuye't vd mo hinh nghien cdu Theo Td chtfc Lao ddng Qudc t e - ILO (2008), viec lam la mdt tinh trang trong do cd stf tra cdng bang tidn hoac hien vat, do cd stf tham gia tich ctfc, trtfc tie'p, cd tinh cha't cd nhan vao mdt hoat ddng san xua't ra hang hda hoac cung ca'p dich vu de dtfdc trd Itfdng hoac tim kie'm idi nhuan.
Theo Lu3t Viec Idm Viet Nam (Qud'c hdi Viet Nam (2013), viec lam Id hoat ddng lao ddng tao ra thu nhap ma khdng hi phdp luat cam.
Viec lam, trtfdc he't Id lam cdng viec de nhan dtfdc den Itfdng, tien cdng hoac hien vat ttf cdng viec do; Hai la, cdng viec dem lai ldi ich cho ban than, md ban than cd quyen stf dung hay sd htfu mot phan hay loan bd ttf lieu san xua't de ihi/c hien cdng viec; Ba la, lam cdng viec cho chinh gia dinh minh va khdng dtfdc trd thu lao dtfdi ba't ctf hinh thtfc nao.
Viec lam ciia qud'c gia dtfdc xdc dinh: ly le phan tram (%) nhtfng ngtfdi cd viec lam (dang
lam viec) chie'm trong long sd' ddn trong dp tuoi cd kha nang lao ddng dtfdc quy dinh va hien dang sdng lai Viet Nam (GSO, 2015).
Smith, A. (1976) cho rang ngudn gd'c cua sif giau cd la lao ddng; lao ddng tao ra gia tri, khdng chi Itfdng ma cd ldi nhuan va ldi ttfc. Gid trj ma ngtfdi cdng nhan cdng them vao gia tn vat chat dtfdc chia thanh 2 phan: mdt phan tra Itfdng cho cdng nhan, phan cdn lai la ldi nhuan ciia doanh nghiep. Gidi chii se khdng thue cdng nhan ne'u ho tha'y khdng nhan dtfdc doanh thu ttf viec ban san pham do cdng nhan lam ra cao hdn long so' vd'n ma bp bo ra. Marx K. (1887) cho rang, dau tif tang (tang ttf ban) se lam gia tang nang sua't lao ddng va tang cau stfc lao ddng; do dd, kha nang cd viec lam ciia ngtfdi lao ddng se dtfdc gia tang, Theo Marshall, A. (1920), de' bdo dam viec lam thi van de dieu tie't cung va cau cua thi trtfdng lao ddng cd y nghTa rat quan trpng vd stf dieu del nay dtfdc thtfc hien hoan loan itf ddng theo quy luat thi trtfdng. Pigou C. (1920) cho rang, tha't nghiep Id do tien Itfdng cao, khi gi^m lien Itfdng se tang viec lam vi se giam chi phi san xua't va 1dm gia tang kha nang thue mtfdn them lao ddng Hdn nffa, giam chi phi sdn xua'l se lam giam gia ca hang hda; qua dd lam tdng stfc mua, kich thich dau ttf md rpng san xua't, lam gia lang cau lao ddng; tac ddng ttf cau lao ddng thtfc te' se la yeu to' xdc dinh viec lam. Keynes, J.M. (1936) cho rang, tinh trang viec lam dtfdc the hien qua mdi quan he, tdc ddng giffa cac ye'u td thi trtfdng lao dong, tinh trang tha't nghiep, tinh trang san xuat, khd'i Itfdng san pham va quy md thu nhap. Khi thu nhap tang len thi lieu diing ciing tang len. Tuy nhien, do tam Iy cua cdng chung, td'c dp tdng cua lieu dCing thap hdn td'c dp lang ciia thu nhap, lam cho cau lieu dung giam ttfdng dd'i so vdi thu nhap, dan den mdt bd phan hang hda khdng ban dtfdc.
Day la nguyen nhan ddn de'n khung hoang, anh htfdng de'n sdn xua't chu ky sau, 1dm giam viec Idm, gia tdng that nghiep. Nguyen nhan cua khung hoang va tha't nghiep la do thie'u hut hidu qua cua cau, vi vay, can thie't phai lang quy mo hieu qua ciia cau de ngan ngtfa khiing hoang va that nghiep. Do dd, de giai quye't viec 1dm, lang thu nhap ddi hdi phdi sff dung cac cdng cu, chinh sdch kinh te nhdm khuye'n khich dau ttf va giam
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tiet kiem, md rdng Itfdng cau, nhtf vay mdi giai quye't dtfdc tinh trang khiing hoang vd tha't nghiep. Mdi stf gia tang dau ttf deu keo theo stf gia tang ciia cau bo sung cdng nhdn, cau ve ttf lieu san xua't; do vay, lam tang cau tieu dung, tang gia hang hda, tang viec lam cho cdng nhan.
Phillips, A. W. (1958) da dtfa ra ly thuye't dtfdng cong Phillips, cho tha'y md'i ttfdng quan ly le nghich giffa td'c dp lam phat va mtfc dp that nghiep: td'c dp lam phdt cang cao thi mtfc dd tha't nghiep cang tha'p (viec lam dtfdc md rdng), vd ngtfdc lai. Levi'is, W. A. (1954) dtfa ra ly thuye't nhi nguyen vd vd'n de tao viec lam bang each chuyen dich lao ddng gitfa hai khu vtfc ciia nen kinh le'. Da't dai ngay cang khan hie'm, trong khi lao ddng ngay cang tdng ddn de'n dtf thtfa lao ddng d khu vtfc ndng nghiep, Dich chuyen lao ddng dtf thtfa ttf khu vtfc ndng nghiep sang khu vtfc cdng nghiep se nang cao tang trtfdng va viec lam cho nen kinh le'. Fei, J,C,H and Ranis G.
(1964) tie'p tuc md rpng ly thuyet nhi nguyen, cho rdng, khu vtfc cdng nghidp cd nhidu khd ndng Itfa chon cdng nghd san xud't, bao gdm cdng nghe stf dung nhieu lao ddng nen cd the' thu hut he't Itfdng lao ddng dtf thtfa ciia khu vtfc ndng nghiep. Tuy nhien, viec di chuyen lao dong Id do chenh lech thu nhap du Idn giffa lao ddng ciia 2 khu vtfc quye't djnh: khu vtfc cdng nghiep chi cd the' thu hiil lao ddng ndng nghiep dtf thtfa khi cd stf chenh lech lien cdng du Idn so vdi khu vtfc ndng nghiep.
Theo Oshima H,T. (1962), md'i quan he gitfa 2 khu vtfc ndng nghiep va cdng nghiep dtfa tren nhtfng dac diem khac biet cua cdc ntfdc dang phat trien chau A- gid miia: nen ndng nghiep lua ntfdc cd tinh thdi vu cao, Nen ndng nghiep liia ntfdc van thie'u lao ddng liic dinh cao ciia thdi vu va chi dtf thtfa lao ddng trong mda nhan rdi, Vi vdy, can gitf lai lao ddng ndng nghiep va chi tao them viec lam trong nhtfng thang nhan rdi bdng each tang vu, da dang hda cay trdng vat nudi vd sff dung lao ddng nhan rdi trong ndng nghiep vao cdc nganh san xua'l cdng nghiep can nhieu lao ddng, Nhtf vay, Itfc Itfdng lao ddng trong ndng nghiep se dtfdc su" dung hd't. Harris, J.R. & Todaro, M. P, (1970) nghien ctfu viec lam qua stf di chuyen lao ddng tren cd sd thtfc hien dieu tie't thu nhap, tien Itfdng giffa cac khu vtfc kinh te' khdc nhau. Nhtfng
ngtfdi lao ddng d khu vtfc ndng thdn cd thu nhap trung binh tha'p. Hp Itfa chpn quye't djnh di chuye'n lao ddng ttf viing cd thu nhap tha'p sang khu vtfc thanh thi cd thu nhap cao hdn. Nhtf vay, qua trinh di chuye'n lao ddng mang tinh ttf phat, phu thudc vdo stf Itfa chpn, quye't dinh ciia cdc cd nhan.
Do do, viec lam la va'n de trung lam trong phdt trien kinh te'. Viec lam dtfdc md rpng tren cd sd can bang cung cau tren thi trtfdng lao ddng, tdng trtfdng kinh te', tdng dau ttf, dich chuyen lao ddng theo quy md, hieu qua nganh san xua't va md'i quan he hdp ly giffa lam phat va that nghiep.
Thdng qua cac nghien ctfu ngoai ntfdc vd trong trong ntfdc ke' ttf nhtfng nam 1990 de'n nay (Bang 1), cd the nhan dien cac ye'u td' dnh htfdng de'n md rpng viec lam bao gdm 3 nhdm ye'u td': (i) Nhdm ye'u to' kinh td'; (ii) Nhdm ye'u to' ve mdi trtfdng dau ttf; (lii) Nhdm ye^u to' ve nhan Itfc, (Hinh 1).
Ccf cdu gid tri sdn xud't nganh cong nghiep: Ty le gid tri sdn xud't nganh cdng nghiep ciia tinh, thanh phd'trong tdng gia tri san xud't nganh cdng nghiep ciia ca ntfdc, do Itfdng quy md kinh te' nganh cdng nghiep ciia cdc tinh, thanh phd'. Ty le nay cang Idn ihl kha nang lich liiy tai dau ttf, md rdng sdn xua't cang cao, cau tao ddng cang tang, qua do cho phep tao ra nhieu viec lam mdi cho ngtfdi lao ddng.
GDP Nong nghiep: Ty trong GDP ciia nganh Ndng nghiep trong tdng GDP ciia nen kinh te' ciia tinh, thanh phd'; do Itfdng quy md kinh te ciia nganh Ndng nghiep. GDP nganh nong nghiep ciia tinh, thanh phd' cang Idn, thi quy md tich luy tai dau ttf, md rpng sdn xuat ciia nganh cang Idn, cau lao ddng trong nganh cdng tang cho phep giai quye't dtfdc nhieu viec lam cho ngtfdi lao ddng.
Tdc do tdng trudng GDP dia pliucng (Gross regional domestic product, GRDP): Td'c dd tang trtfdng GDP dia phtfdng cang cao thi nen kmh te' cang phdt trien. Theo dd, quy md tich luy tai dau ttf, md rpng sdn xua't cang Idn. He qua Id cau lao ddng cang tdng, dem lai nhieu khd nang giai quye't viec lam cho ngtfdi lao ddng,
Quy md dien tich nuoi trong thuy sdn: Dac thu cua cdc dia phtfdng vung Duyen hai vdi the' manh nudi trdng thuy san. Dien tich mat ntfdc nudi trdng thiiy san, do Itfdng quy mo san xud't cua
So 19^Thang 10/2019 107
TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
Hinh 1: Cac yeu to anh hUdng den viec lam
YEU 16 KINH TE
Quy md nen kinh te: Cd cau cdng nghiep; GDP Ndng nghiep; Td'c dp tang trudng GDP,
Quy md san xuaft: Dien tich mat nudc nudi trong thuy san, Dien tich san xuat mudi; Sd ludng tau danh bat xa bd-
Nang lUc canh tranh: Chi sd nang iUc canh tranh (PCI) Thi trtfdng hang hda: Sd iKOng chd
Dan sd: Tdc dp tang trucing dan so
YEU TOVE NHAN LUc
Trinh 66 nhan Itfc: Ty le hoc sinh td't nghiep pho thdng Siic khde: So lUdng cO sd kham, chua benh Mtfc sdng: Thu nhap cua lao ddng
Ty le lao dong tCr 15 tuoi trd len dang Idm viec (CO viec lam) so vdi tong ddn so
nganh Thiiy san. Dien lich mat ntfdc nudi trdng thiiy sdn cang Idn ihl quy md san xual cua nganh thiiy san cdng idn. kha nang hd'p thu iao ddng cang cao, cho phep gidi quye't dtfdc nhieu viec lam cho ngtfdi lao ddng,
Quy mo dien tich ddt sdn xud't mudi: Dien lich da't san xua't mud'i do Itfdng quy md san xua't ciia diem dan. Dien tich da't san xuat mud'i cdng Idn, cdng tao dtfdc nhieu viec 1dm, khd nang hap thu lao ddng cang cao, San xua't mud'i ciing Id ddc thu neng cua mdt sd'dja phtfdng vung Duyen hai.
So luctng tau ddnh bdt thiiy sdn: So' tau danh ba't hai san xa bd do Itfdng quy md san xua't ciia ngtf dan, Sd' Itfdng tau ddnh bdt hai san xa bd cang nhieu, kha nang ha'p thu lao ddng cang cao.
Chi .so ndng li/c canh tranh: Chi so nang Itfc canh tranh cap tinh (PCI) do Itfdng nang Itfc canh tranh trong viec thu hiit dau itf cua cdc tinh. thanh phd'. Tinh, thdnh phd' cd PCI cang cao, cang cd nhieu khd ndng thu hut dau ttf. Dau ttf cang Idn, cau Iao ddng cang cao, Dieu dd ddng nghTa vdi viec gia tdng cd hdi viec lam cho ngtfdi lao ddng.
Thi trudng hdng hoa: So' Itfdng chd do Itfdng khd nang tie'p nhan san pham vd cung tfng hang hda cua thi trtfdng. Sd'Itfdng chd cang nhieu, viec tie'p nhdn san pha'm va cung tfng, tieu thu hang
hda cdng thuan lien, chi phi san xual va tieu thu hang hda giam.
Ddn sd: Ty le gia tang dan so' phan dnh mtfc dp gia tdng ngudn cung lao ddng cho thi trtfdng hang hda stfc lao ddng. Ngudn cung ciia thi trtfdng hang hda stfc lao ddng cang Idn, cang lao dp Itfc gia tang viec lam.
Trinh do nhdn lUc: Ty le hpc sinh td't nghiep trung hpc phd' thdng (THPT) do Itfdng trinh dp hoc vd'n ciia ngtfdi lao ddng, la mdt trong nhffng ye'u td anh htfdng de'n chat Itfdng ngudn nhan Itfc. Ngtfdi Iao ddng cd ly le td't nghiep THPT cdng cao, kha nang tiep thu, ndm bat, van dung cdc kie'n thtfc chuyen mdn ky thuat, kha nang ttf dao tao, ren luyen tay nghe cang td't, cd hpi viec Idm gia tang.
Sdc khde: Sd Itfdng cd sd kham chtfa benh do cdcsdy te'tinh, thanh phd qudn ly (bao gdm benh vien; phdng kham khu vtfc; tram y te xa, phtfdng, cd quan. doanh nghiep) cho phep do Itfdng quy md chdm sdc stfc khde cho ngtfdi lao ddng. Quy md chdm sdc stfc khde ciia ngtfdi Iao ddng (tham kham, nghi dtfdng, chtfa benh) cang Idn thi stfc khde ciia ngtfdi lao ddng cang td't. Stfc khde cdng tdt thi chat Itfdng ngudn nhan Itfc cdng cao, ngtfdi lao ddng cdng cd nhieu ihudn ldi de gia nhap vao thj trtfdng lao ddng va tim kie'm cd hdi viec lam.
108 So 19-Thong 10/2019
QUANH!-QUAN IV
Mdc song: Thu nhdp binh quan hdng nam ciia ngtfdi lao ddng trong doanh nghidp phan anh dieu kidn mtfc sd'ng (thu nhap, chi lieu, mtfc sd'ng, nhd d, tdi san) ciia ngtfdi Iao ddng trong doanh nghiep, Thu nhap cang cao, thi dieu kien kinh le', mtfc sd'ng cang td't, ngtfdi Iao ddng cdng cd nhieu thuan Idi de ndng cao stfc khde thd' Itfc, tinh than, hpc tap, trau ddi kie'n thtfc van hda, chuyen mdn, khoa hpc ky thuat qua dd nang cao chd't Itfdng ngudn nhdn Itfc. Nguon nhan Itfc cd cha'l Itfdng
cao ddng nghTa vdi viec ngtfdi lao ddng cdng cd nhieu thuan ldi de tham gia vao thi trtfdng lao ddng, tim kie'm cd hpi viec Idm.
2.2. Mo hinh nghien cdu Iffa chpn Bang I cho biet md hinh nghien ctfu Itfa chon:
Bie'n phu thudc: Viec lam (Y) Bie'n ddc lap 12 bie'n Y = f ( X i ) v d i i = 1 den 12.
Ky vpng: Cac bie'n ddc lap tdc ddng de'n i (cung chieu).
Bang 1. Mo hinh nghien cijfu liia chon
1
1
II
1
2
3
4
Ten bi^n Do ludng Ky vpng (H) Ngudn Phu thu$c
Ty le viec lam (Employment rate, EMP)
Ty le lao ddng td 15 iud'i trd len dang lam viec (co viec lam) so vdi long dan so (%),
lan Coxhead & cdng tac (2009);
Jean-Pierre Cling & cdng stf (2010);
Gaelle Pierre (2012), Xavler Oudin va cdng su (2014),
Bien ddc ISp
Ty le gia tn nganh Cdng nghiep (Percentage of Industry, INDP
Ty le gia tn nganh Ndng nghiep (Percentage of Agricultural GDR AGRP)
Tdc do tang trudng GDP dia phuang (Growth rate ofGRDP, GDPR)
Dien tich nudi trdng thiiy san (Aquatic Area, AQUA)
Cd cau gia in nganh Cdng nghiep ciia tinh, Ehanh phd trong td'ng gia tn nganh Cdng nghiep ca nudc.
Ty trong GDP cua nganh Ndng nghiep trong long GDP cua nen kinh te (%).
Tdc dd tang trudng GRDP theo gia so sanh 2010 (%).
Dien tich mat nudc nudi trdng thuy san.
(1000 Ha)
^
+
+
+
Rhys Jenkins (2004a), Hyun H. Son (2005), Tran Nhuan Kien va Yoon Heo (2009); Brian Mccaig va Nina Pavcnik (2011); Gaelle Pierre (2012), Xavier Oudin va cdng sU (2014), Philip Ab- bott va cong su (2015); Dinh Phi Hd va Nguyen Van PhUdng (2015) Oshima, H.T (1993): Hyun H, Son (2005); lan Coxhead va cong su (2009); Jean-Pierre Cling va cdng sU (2010); Brian Mccaig va Nina Pavcnik (2011); Gaelle Pierre (2012), Xavier Oudin va cdng su (2014), Philip Ab- bott va cdng su(2015).
Philip Ifeakachukwu and Nwosa (2014); lan Coxhead va cong su (2009), Jean-Pierre Cling va cdng su (2010), Gaelle va cdng su (2012);
Xavier Oudin va cong su (2014) Ddng Van Tuan va cong sU (2011);
Arthur O'Sullivan (2011), Dang Tu Lan (2002).
So 19-Thang 10/2019 109
TAP CHi CUNG THIfdNG
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
len bien
Dien tich san xuat mudi (Salt area, SALA)
Sdtau danh bat (Ship quantity, SHIPQ)
PCI
Sd lUdng cho (Market quantity MARQ)
Ty le gia tang dan sd (Population growth rate, POPR
Ty le hoc sinh tdt nghiep (Graduation rate, GRAR}
So luong Cd sd kham, chOa benh (Medical unit, EDIU)
Tu nhap (Income, INC)
Do ludng
Dien tich dat san xuat mudi (1000 ha).
Sdtau danh b^thai san xa bd (Tau)
Chi so nang luc canh tranh cap tinh
So luong cho (Cho)
Ty le gia tang dan so {%)
Ty le hoc sinh td't nghiep THPT (%},
Sd lu'dng cosd kham, chOa benh (so cd sd).
Thu nhap binh quan hang nam ciia ngudi lao ddng trong doanh nghiep (trieu ddng).
Ky vpng (H)
+
+
+
*
*
*
*
+
Nguon
Dong Van Tuan va cong SU.
(2011), Arthur O'Sullivan (2011);
Dang Tu Lan (2002).
Dong Van Tuan va cong su (2011);
Arthur O'Sullivan (2011); BJng Tu Lan (2002).
Arthur O'Sullivan (2003); Kunal Sen (2008), Dong Van Tuan va cong su (2011).
Balassa (1966); Nguyen The Tram va cong su (2005), Dong Van Tuan va cong su (2011).
Lewis (1954), Bang Tu Lan (2002);
Nguyen The Tram va ctg. (2005), Tran Dinh Chin (2012).
Arthur O'Sullivan (2003), Nguyen Thi Kim Dung va cong SU (2005);
Kunal Sen (2008); lan Coxhead va cong sy (2009), Vu Hoang Nam va cong su (2010), Nguyen Dung Anh (2014); Dinh Phi Ho va Nguyen Van Phuong (2015); Chris N.Sakellatiou and Harry A Patri- nos (2000).
Nguyen Thi Kim Dung va c6ng sU (2005), Nguyen Thi Hue (2014);
Dinh Phi Hd va Nguyen Van Phuong (2015); Pham DUc Thuan va Duong Ngoc Thanh (2015).
Chris N.Sakellariou va Harry A Pannes (2000); Arthur O'Sullivan (2003); Tran Nhuan Kien va Yoon Heo (2009); Nguyen Diing Anh (2014); Philip Abbott va cong sU (2015); Pham DUc Thuan va Duong Ngoc Thanh (2015).
110 So 19-Thdng 10/2019
QUAN TR!-QUANir
3. Thiet ke'nghidn cu'u 3.1. Off lieu (Bdng 2) - Thdi gian: 8 nam (2009 - 2016).
- Khdng gian: 21 tinh/thanh phd' cua vung Duyen hai Viet Nam,
Bang 2. Cac tinh chon loc cOa vung Duyen hdi Viet Nam STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
liNH QUANG NINH HAI PHONG NAM DINH NINHBlNH NGHEAN HA TINH QUANG BiNH QUANG TRI DA N A N G QUANG NAM QUANG NGAI BiNH DINH PHU YEN KHANH HOA BiNH THUAN BEN TRE TRA VINH KIEN GIANG SOCTRANG BAC LIEU CAMAU
MA SO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
3.2. Nguon dii lieu
Nghien cu'u s\S dung dif lieu cua Tong cue Thd'ng ke (GSO), Cue Thd'ng ke cua 2! tinh, thanh phd' Duyen hai va Phdng Thifdng mai va Cdng nghiep Viet Nam (VCCI).
3.3. Mo hinh dfflieu bang
Do dff lieu siJ dung theo 2 chieu (i) Thdi gian (T = 8 nam); (ii) Khdng gian (21 tinh/TP), theo Baltagi B,H. (1999), md hinh kmh te'lu'dng thich hdp la dang md hinh quy dif lieu Bang (Panel Data).
Theo Hsiao C. (2003), trong phan lich, hdi quy diJ lieu bang cd cac md hinh chinh sau Pool OLS (Pool Ordinary Least Square, Binh phu'dng be nha't thd), FEM (fixed effects model, iVId hinh lac ddng cd' dinh), REM (random effects model, md hlnh tac ddng ngau nhien).
+ Mo Innh Pooled OLS:
Dd lieu bang bao g6m N ddi tu'dng (Tinh/TP) va T thdi gian (2009-2016), md hinh hdi quy tuye'n tinh truyen thd'ng du'dc xac dinh bdi:
Yit = p0 + pIXlit + p2X2il
+ ...-(-p 12X12it +|ait (1);
Trong dd: i = 1 de'n N; 1= I de'n T.
pit: Gia trj phan dtf ciia md hinh, dd'i tu'dng i cua nam thif t. Md hinh cd 12 bien ddc lap.
Md hinh Pool OLS thuc cha't la md hinh OLS binh thifdng, dieu nay xay ra khi siJ dung diJ lieu bang nhu" mdt dam m3y diJ Heu binh thtfdng khdng phan biet theo nam va theo dd'i tifdng. Do dd, ke't qua tfdc lu'dc khdng du'dc tin cay.
+ Mo Innh tdc dong cd'dinh (FEM) Md hinh tac ddng cd'dinh la mdt dang md rdng cua md hinh hdi quy tuye'n tinh truyen thd'ng.
Trong dd, phan dif cua md hinh 1 dUdc tach ra lam 2 bo phan:
pit = VI + Kit
Thanh phan ii dai dien cho ta't cac cac bie'n khdng quan sat difdc khac nhau giffa cac dd'i iLfdng nhifng khdng thay ddi theo thdi gian. Thanh phan sit dai dien cho nhifng bie'n khdng quan sal dtfdc khac nhau giffa cac dd'i iffdng va thay doi theo thdi gian.
Yit = pO + piXIit + p2X2it
+ ...+ pl2X12it +vi + eit' (2) + Md hinh tdc dong ngau nhien (REM) Md hinh lac ddng ngau nhien la mdt dang md rdng cua md hinh hoi FEM. Trong dd, phan dif (vi) cua md hlnh 2 du'dc tach ra lam 2 bo phan:
vi = aO -(- wi
Thanh phan ba't dinh (aO): Dai dien cho ta't cac cac bie'n khdng quan sat dtfdc khac nhau giffa
So 19-Thang 10/2019 H I
TAP GHJ CQNG THIfdNG
cac ddi tffdng nhtfng khdng thay ddi theo thdi gian. Thanh phan ngau nhien (wi): Dai dien cho tat cac cac bien khdng quan sat dffdc khac nhau giffa cac dd'i tifdng nhu'ng thay dd'i theo thdi gian.
Yit = pO + p l X l i t + p2X2it
+ ... + pl2X12it +G)i + 8h" (3) Theo Hsiao C. (2003), hai md hlnh (2) va (3) thich hdp cho sff dung md hlnh hdi quy dff lieu Bang. De xem xet md hlnh FEM hay REM phu hdp hdn, can sff dung kiem dinh Hausman (Hausman, 1978). Thifc chat, kie'm dinh Hausman de xem xet cd ton lai tif tUdng quan giffa ei va c&c bie'n ddc lap hay khdng.
Gid thuyet (Hypotheis, H):
HO: ei va bie'n ddc lap khdng tifdng quan, HI: ei va bie'n ddc lap cd tifdng quan.
Theo Baltagi (1999) va Gujarati (2003), khi gia trj Pvalue < 0,05, ei va bie'n doc lap tu'dng quan vdi nhau, bac bd gia thuye't HO, sd dung md hlnh tac ddng cd'dinh, Cdn ngifdc lai, ta sffdiing md hinh tac ddng ngau nhien.
4. Kd't qua va thao luan
Kel qua cua kiem dinh Hausman (Bang 3) Bdng 3. Kiem dmh Hausman Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation. FIXED
Test cross-section random effects Test Summary
Cross-sectron random
Ctii-Sq.
Statistic 36.410965
Ctii-Sq d.f.
12 Prob
0.0003
Bang 3 cho tha'y Prob. = 0,0003 < 0,05, bac bd gia thuye't HO, md hlnh hdi quy tac ddng cd'dinh la phii hdp (Hsiao C , 2003),
Ke't qua cua md hlnh tac ddng cd' dinh Trong Bang 4, theo Green (1991) cac bie'n GDPR. GRAR, INC, INDP, PCI, SHIPQ cd Prob.
< 0,05 (mifc lin cay tren 95%). R- hieu chinh
= 0.900; 91% thay doi cua Viec lam (EMP) difdc giai thich bdi cac bie'n ddc lap ciia md hlnh. Prob (F-statistic) = 0,000, md hlnh hinh hdi quy phii hdp vdi dff lieu thffc te vdi mdc tin cay 99% (Ve tong the', cac bie'n ddc lap Iffdng quan tuye'n tinh
ViF,
vdi bie'n phu thudc). Theo Fomby T.B, Hill R.C, and Johnson S,R, (1984), gia tri thd'ng ke Durbin - Watson: 1 <d=i.433 < 3, md hlnh khdng cd hien tifdng Iff tffdng quan ciia phan dff.
Theo Kutner, M. H. va cdng sff (2004):
. /
' I -l^, Trong dd:
VlFi: Do phdng dai phffdng sai (variance inflation factor, VIF) cua bie'n ddc lap thd i.
Ri- He sd' R- hieu chinh cua bie'n ddc lap thif i.
R',: He sd' xac dinh R- hieu chinh cua md hlnh hdi quy phu thif 1.
X1 = aO -1- aIX2 -i- a2X3 +..,+ alOX12 (I) Dtfa vao phffdng trinh, xac dinh R21. Tffdng tif xac dinh R^2;„.. R-I2,
Bdng 5. Do phong dqi phJdng sol (VIF)
AGRP AQUA GDPR GRAR INC INDP MARQ MEDIU PCI POPR SALA SHIPQ
Adjusted R^
0.7444 0.5012 0.3654 0.4032 0.2815 0.2720 0.2084 0.8319 -0.0093 -0.0061 0.0035 0.0035
1-R2 0 2556 0.4988 0.6346 0.5968 0.7186 0.7280 0.7916 0.1681 1.0093 1.0061 0.9966 0.9966
1/(1-R=) 3.9129 ' Z 0 0 4 8 ~
1.5758 1.6756 1.3917 1.3737 1.2633 5.9477 0.9908 0.9940 1.0036 1.0035
Kfii VIFi < 10, khong co hien liWng quan tuye'n tinh giBa cac bien doc lap (Belsley, Kuli andWelsch, 1980)
Theo Park (1996), khi li/ong quan giUa Phan du: binh phuang (RSQUARE) va bien phu thuoc cua mo hinh co dang ditdng thing (tuye'n tinh), khong cd hien tiTOng phuong sai phan diTthay doi.
112 So 19-Thdng 10/2019
QUANTRI-qUANlV
Bdng 4. Ket qud c u a m o fiirih t a c dong Dependent Vanable; EMP
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/24/19 Time: 14:28 Sample: 2011 2018 Periods included: 8 Cross-sections included: 21
: o djnti (FEU/I)
1
1
Total panel (balanced) observations: 168 Variable
C AGRP AQUA GDPR GRAR INC INDP MARQ MEDIU PCI POPR SALA SHIPQ
Coefficient 13.45667 -0.030915 0.075798 1.079869 0.051121 0.064101 1.945589 0.001966 0.012665 0 092401 -0.006031 0.000292 0.001183
Std. ETTOT
5.220480 0.047056 0.070072 0.221486 0 020163 0 012320 0 468346 0 004450 0 015809 0 033733 0 385893 0.000341 0.000588
t-StatistIc 2.577669 -0.656988 1.081725 4.875667 2.536675 5.203019 4.154168 0.441833 0 801143 2 739222 -0.015630 0.855986 2.012992
Prob.
0.0110 0.5123 0.2813 0.0000 0.0123 0.0000 0.0001 0.6593 0.4245 0.0070 0.9876 0.3935 0.0461
1 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared
Adiusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0 927165 0.909900 1.237066 206.5948 -255.7525 53.70319 0.000000
fvlean dependent var S.D. dependentvar Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat
55.16667 4121270 3 437530 4.051165 3 686573 1.433809
So 19-Thang 10/2019 113
TAP CHi CdNG THIfdNG
Hinh 2: Bieu dd phdn dif binh phi/dng RSQUARE
Hlnh 2 cho tha'y difdng tffdng quan cd dang tuyen tinh.
Nhu'vay, qua he thdng cac kiem dinh, cac ye'u td'anh hffdngde'n md rdng viec lam bao gom: (I) Cd ca'u gia tri nganh cdng nghiep cua tinh, thanh phd Irong tdng gia iri nganh cdng nghiSp ca nffdc;
(2) Td'c dd tang irffdng GDP; (3) Chi sdnang Iffc canh tranh cap tinh; (4) So tau danh bat hai san xa bd, (5) Thu nhap binh quan hang nam cua ngu'di lao ddng trong doanh nghiep; (6) Ty le hoc smh td't nghiep THPT.
5. Ham y chinh sach
De md rdng viec lam cho cac tinh/thanh phd thudc vung Duyen hai, cac dia phu'dng nen quan lam de'n:
- Phdt trien nganh cong nghiep: Ke't qua nghien cffu va thuc tiln nhffng nam qua da chi ra rang, nganh cdng nghiep khdng chi gdp phan thiic day tang tru'dng kinh te', ma cdn giai quye't di/dc nhieu viec lam cho ngffdi lao ddng, VI vay, can ffu tien tap trung vd'n con ngffdi va cac ngudn Iffc de phat trien nganh cdng nghiep iheo the' manh nguyen lieu tai chd va gSn vdi ffng dung cdng nghd than thien mdi irffdng, khdng anh hffdng de'n the'manh phat tnen du Ijch smh thai bien.
- Thuc day tdng triidng kinh te: Nhieu nam qua, kmh te' Viet Nam giff mffc lang irffdng kha
cao da lao ra du'dc nhieu viec lam mdi cho ngffdi lao ddng. Thffc tidn da chffng minh rang, chi khi kinh te phat trien thi viec lam cua ngffdi lao ddng mdi dffdc dn dinh, ddi sd'ng mdi dam bao. Vi vay, can phai tap trung, huy ddng vd'n con ngi/di va moi nguon Iffc nham thuc day tang trffdng kinh le. Tao dieu kien thuan Idi de doanh nhan, hd gia dinh va ca the bd vd'n dau tu' kinh doanh, lam an; nudi dffdng doanh nghiep trong nffdc, huy ddng cao nha't moi nguon )iJc trong dan chung cho muc tieu phat trien kinh te', Cai thien mdi trffdng dau iff thuan ldi. hanh lang phaply rd rang, minh bach, ddn gian hda cac thii tuc de thu hut dau ttf nUdc ngoai vdi tinh than doanh nghiep nffdc ngoai la mdt bd phan quan trong trong cac thanh phan kinh te'qud'c gia, thanh cong ciia doanh nghiep nu'dc ngoai ciing la thanh cdng cua Chinh phu. Tranh thu sff ung ho cua cac chinh phu, td chffc va ca nhan nffdc ngoai cac ngudn Iffc, nha't la ngudn vd'n. cdng nghe de dau tff xay dffng cd cd ha tang phuc vu muc lieu phat trie'n kinh te',
- Cdi thien moi trUdng ddu tii, ndng cao nang liic canh tranh: Khi nang Iffc canh tranh difdc cai thien, cac tmh. thanh phd' se cd nhieu ldi the' de keu goi, thu hut dau tff tff nhieu thanh phan kinh te' trong nffdc va nffdc ngoai. Quan tam tdi nang cao chi sd' nang Iffc canh tranh de khdng ngffng cai thien mdi irffdng dau tff va nang cao nang Iffc canh tranh.
- Ho trd ngff ddn trang bi phffdng tien khai thdc, ddnh bat hdi sdn: Mot thffc te' lii nang Iffc khai thac. danh bSt hai san. nhat la danh bat hai san xa bd cua ngff dan dang thie'u va ye'u. Mac du, nhffng nam qua da dffdc tang cffdng nhi6u nhffng van chffa dap ffng dffdc yeu c^u cua ngif trffdng khi ngay cang phai vffdn xa vdi nhieu rui ro, ba't trac: mffa bao. sff cffdp pha cua tau, thuyen nffdc ngoai lam thidt hai ve phffdng tien va t^i san ciia ngif dan. Cdng sua't be, trang thie't hi thie'u thdn nen tau. thuyen ciia ngifdan khd vffdn de'n bien xa, bam bien lau ngay, de hi hff hai
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trifdc nhffng tac ddng cua thien tai va la'n cdng ciia tau, thuyen nffdc ngoai. VI vay, can day nhanh va hoan thien cac chinh sach hd trd ngff dan trang hi mdi tau, thuyen; bd sung phffdng tien, cdng cu khai thac, danh bat hai san, nha't la danh bat d ngff trffdng xa. Hoan chinh he thdng cang bie'n, au tau, ndi neo d3u cho ngff dan khi gap mffa bao; dich vu cung ffng vat tiJ, sffa chffa lau, thuyen hif hdng; bao ve td't ngff dan tru'dc nhffng hanh ddng pha hoai cua tau, thuyen nffdc ngoai. Tie'p tuc chffdng trinh hd trd ngff dan lai sua't hdp ly de vay vd'n ddng tau Idn vdi trang Ihie't bi hien dai, du sffc vffdn khdi. bam bien.
- Cdi thi?n thu nhap vd dieu ki$n kinh techo ngffdi lao dgng: Khi thu nhap va mffc sd'ng cao th!
ngffdi lao ddng cd dieu kien de nSng cao sdc khde ihe life, tinh than, hpc tap, trau ddi kie'n thffc van hda, chuyen mdn, khoa hoc ky thuat, qua dd nang cao chat Iffdng ngudn nh3n life. Ngudn nhan Iffc cd chat Iffdng cao ddng nghTa vdi viec ngffdi lao ddng cd nhieu thuan ldi de tham gia vao thj irffdng lao ddng, gia tang cd hdi tim kie'm dffdc viec lam. VI vay, can quan lam de'n cd bien phap de nang cao thu nhap va cai thien ddi sd'ng cho ngu'di lao ddng, nhff' (i) Md cac trung tam dao tao. day nghe de ngffdi lao ddng dffdc trang hi cac kien thffc chuyen mdn ky Ihuflt can thie't khi tham gia lao ddng cd nang sua't, cha't Iffdng. hieu qua cao, qua dd tang thu nhap va cai thien didu kien kinh le'; (ii) Da dang hda nganh nghe, san pham de ngffdi lao ddng vdi kie'n thffc, kinh nghiem ciia minh cd the tham gia sau rdng vao thi trffdng lao
ddng, tim kie'm cd hdi viec lam, tao ke' sinh nhai ben vffng va lau dai; (iii) Phat huy cac idi the' ve tai nguyen da't dai, khoang san, khi hau, lao ddng, mdi tru'dng kinh doanh keu goi dau iff, qua dd tao ra nhieu viec lam mdi cho ngu'di lao ddng. Khi cd hdi viec lam gia tang, ngifdi lao ddng cd nhieu dieu kien de Iffa chgn difdc viec lam phii hdp.
- Ndng cao trinh do hoc van, chuyen mon ky thudt cho ngi/di lao dong: Tnnh do hoc va'n cang cao, kha nang tie'p thu, nSm bat, ffng dung cac tie'n bd khoa hoc ky thuat, kha nang iff dao tao, ren luyen tay nghe ciia ngffdi lao ddng cang tdt.
Trinh do chuyen mdn ky thuat cang cao, ngffdi lao ddng cang cd nhieu c0 hdi tim kie'm viec lam.
Vl vay. can dan tu' thich dang cho giao due. dao tao: md rpng hd thd'ng trffdng Idp pho thdng, cac trung tSm hu'dng nghiep, day nghe, cac cd sd dao tao nghiep vu. ky thuat, cac trifdng trung hpc, cao dang, dai hpc. phii hdp vdi quy md cua nen kinh te' va dieu kidn, ddi hdi thffc tidn cua tffng tinh, tffng thinh phd' va da't nffdc. Giao due. dao tao phai gan vdi thi trffdng vide lam, vdi nhu cau lao ddng ma xa hdi dang can, Tranh dko tao theo kha nang ciia nha trtfdng, hay theo chi tieu ma Bd, nganh chu quan giao ma khdng quan tam tdi nhu c^u cua xa hdi, din dd'n thffc trang sinh vien td't nghiep khdng cd viec lam vi cha'l Iffdng khdng dap ffng yeu cau cdng viec, hay thifc trang "thffa thay, thie'u thd" nhff hien nay. Quan tam de'n lien ke't, tranh thii sff ling hd, dau tff ciia cac chinh phii, td chffc, ca nhan nifdc ngoai md cac trifdng dao tao. day nghe, giao due vdi chat lu'dng cao •
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Ngay nh$n bai: 14/9/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va su'a chu'a: 24/9/2019 Ngay chS'p nhan dang bai: 4/10/2019
Thong tin tdc gid:
PGS.TS. DINH PHI HO Trffolng Dai hpc Phan Thie't
THE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS:
CASE STUDY IN VIETNAM'S COASTAL PROVINCES
• Assoc.Prof, Ph.D DINH PHI HO Phan Thiet University
ABSTRACT:
This study aims to assess factors that intluence the employment growth of the costal region in Vietnam. In this study, an extended regression function was used for a panel data with 186 observauons of 21 cities and provinces in the period from 2011 to 2018. In addition, three regression models based on the panel dataset were also employed in this study, including: (i) Pooled - OLS regression model (Pooled OLSM); (ii) Random Effects Model (REM); and (iii) Fixed Effects Model (FEM). The study's results show that the FEM model is sudable and factors affecting the employment growth include (i) Structure of industrial value of province and city in total value of industry nationwide; (ii) GDP growth rate; (iii) Provincial Competitiveness Index; (iv) Number of offshore fishing vessels; (v) Average annual income of employees working for enterprises; and (vi) Percentage of high school graduates.
Keywords: Job, coastal region, panel data regression.
118 So 19-Thong 10/2019
