<-%
MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
N H O N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO ^
mo HINH CANH BAO
va chinh sach huang toi on dinh kinh te vi mo
Nguyen Phi Lan *
1. Loi mo dau
Mac du cic nghign ciiu vg khiing hoang dgn te va cin cin thanh toin da dugc nghign cihi trong nhirng nam 70 ciia thg ky trudc vdi sy khdi diu va dat ngn mdng cua GS Paul Krugman, nhung cac cude khung hoang kinh tg - tai chinh trong vdng ban 20 nam trd lai day nhu khung hoang
"tequila" cua Mexico (1994 - 1995), khiing hoang tai chinh khu vyc Chau A (1997 - 1998), khung hoang kinh tg tai Nga nam 1998, khung hoang Braxin va khiing hoang kinh te thg gidi nam 2008 da cho thiy sy cin thigt phai phit trign cic md hinh canh bio sdm khiing hoang tai cic nudc dang phit trien va mdi ndi nhu Viet Nam.
Thyc tiln phit trign kinh tg the gidi cho thiy khi qui trinh toan elu
hda va ddng chu chuygn vdn trgn thi trudng loan cau tang len, ty do hda tai khoan vang lai va tai khoan vdn khdng kip thdi digu chinh kip so vdi qui trinh ty do hda va cai cich d cic khu vyc kinh tg khic;
nhigu thi trudng mdi ndi, cic ngn kinh te chuygn ddi theo dinh hudng thi trudng xuit hien; sy ygu kem trong edng tic digu hanh chinh sich kinh tg vi md da dat ngn kinh tg thg gidi ndi chung va cic nudc ndi rigng dung trudc nguy ca khiing hoang kinh tg va tign te siu sac trong tuong lai. Do dd, viec xay dyng cae md hinh canh bio va dy bao vg nguy co khiing hoang kinh tg, tign te va boat ddng ngin hang va kinh nghiem ciia cic nudc trgn thg gidi va trong khu vyc la bgt sue cin thigt va cin dugc nghign ciiu mdt each toan dien dg
giiip Viet Nam trinh duge cic cudc khiing hoang tign te trong tuang lai. Dg hieu rd dugc cic md hinh canh bio sdm vg rui ro kinh tg vi md va khung hoang tign te (EWS), trong nghign cuu nay, tic gia trinh bay vg cic thg he md hinh EWS da dugc phit trign trgn the gidi va ting dung chiing trong digu kien ngn kinh tg Viet Nam.
Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thunhdt
Md hinh EWS thg he thii nhit dugc xay dyng va phit trien bdi GS kinh tg Krugman (1979) va dugc Flood va Garber (1984) cai bien sau dd. Theo Krugman (1979), khung hoang tign te dan dgn tii thim hut ngan sich cao. Khi chi tieu Chinh phii tang cao va dugc
* NHNN
Tapchidganhang so2o3/20ll 27
j ^ N H Q N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO
den te hda nd thdng qua viec tang trudng dn dung trong nudc, ngn kinh tg se phai ddi mat vdi tinh trang lam phit tang cao va ddng tign trong nudc bi mat gia, cic nha diu tu va cu din cd xu hudng gam giii ngoai te. Khi dd, de duy tri ty gia tai miic da an dinh (trong che do ty gia ed dinh), Ngan hang Trung uang (NHTU) se budc phai giam dy trii ngoai te cho tdi miic can kiet. Kgt qua la muc can bang ty gii dugc thigt lap trudc dd khdng cdn bao dam dugc niia va phi gii xay ra do stic ep cua thi trudng tign te va can kiet dy trir ngoai hdi ehinh thiic. Theo quan sit cila Krug- man, trudc thdi dig'm ddng ndi te bi phi gii, cac nha diu CO cd thg' phin doin chinh xic vg kha nang mat gii cila ddng ndi te khi quan sit cic chi sd kinh tg vi md nhu miic chi tigu cua Chinh phii va tdc do tang trudng cung tign. Do dd, cic nha diu co se ban ndi te de mua ngoai te de trinh nhirng tdn thit khi mat gii xay ra. Hanh dgng ddng thdi cila hg (bin ndi te va mua ngoai te) trong bdi canh bit dn kinh tg vi md se la mdt cudc tan cdng dau ca vao ndi te va khign dy tru ngoai hdi sut giam nhanh ban va miie pha gia se xay ra sdm hon.
Md hinh canh bio thg he thii nhit cbi ra rang sy mat can ddi kinh tg vi md la nguygn nhan cua khiing hoang tign te. Theo dd, sy tang trong ehi tigu Chinh phU va dugc dgn te hda nd thdng qua he thdng ngan hang se khign tang trudng tin dung qui mire, gay mit gia thyc tg ddng ndi dia, tham hut tai khoan vang lai vdi quy md Idn, hieu qua dau tu trong cac dy an thap, cung nhu sy ygu kem trong cdng tac giim sit he thdng ngin hang, tai chinh. Kgt hgp vdi sy ehgnh lech giiia nhiing cam kgt va tuygn bd ciia cac nha quan ly kinh tg vdi kha nang giii cac cam kgt dd se lam suy giam muc do tin cay eua cdng chiing vao cdng tic digu hanh chinh sach tign te cila Chinh phii. Tat ca cic ygu td neu trgn se ed thg gay ra mdt cudc khung hoang tign te (Nguygn Khic Minh 2008).
Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thii hai
Ckc md hinh thg he thii hai la sy tigp ndi cic nghign cuu cua Krugman (1979) va Flood va Garber (1984).
Theo Obstfeld (1986, 1994 va 1996), cac md hinh canh bio thg he thii 2 khdng xuit phat tu cic ygu td kinh tg vT md can ban ma tap trung vao ky vgng.
Nhiing md hinh nay nhin manh tim anh hudng ciia ky vgng hien thyc hda khung hoang va nhiing rdi loan thi trudng tdi mdt ddng tign. Theo dd, mdt cudc khung hoang dgn te xay ra do:
- Ky vgng gan kgt vdi nhau theo hudng gay ra khiing hoang;
- Hanh vi bay dan mdt cich hgp ly;
- Tinh lan truygn.
Ky vgng gin ket vdi nhau theo hudng gay ; "'^""8 hoang phan inh sy bi quan cua cic nha dau to va corig chiing vg cong tic digu hanh chinh sacli kinh tg cua Chinh phu, cic bio cio vg tinh hinh khdng sing sua eua nin kinh tl hay cic sy kien chinh tri. Ngu sd ngudi bi quan cd ky vgng ve sy mit gii ciia ddng ndi te, thi hanh ddng ciia nhiing ngudi nay se gay ra sy mit gia cua ddng ngi te trgn thi trudng.
Hanh vi bay dan phan anh sd ddng nhiing ca nhan va td chdc tham gia thi trudng hanh ddng theo kigu an theo hoae di theo xu thi chung eda thi trudng.
Tinh lan truyin the hien tic ddng lan tda khung hoang tign te ttr cic nudc phit sinh khung hoang trong khu vyc do cic mdi lign kit thuang mai, tai chinh, diu tu. Nd ciing ly giai tai sao cac nudc cd quan he thuong mai va tai chinh trong khu vyc rat dg bi tic ddng lan truyen khung hoang.
Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thu ba
Cic md hinh canh bio thg he thii ba dugc xiy dyng sau cudc khung hoang tai chinh - tign te Chau A 1997 - 1998. Theo Kaminsky va Reinhart (1999), md hinh canh bio thi he thir ba la md hinh canh bao vg khiing hoang kep, gin ket giiia khung hoang ngin hang va khiing hoang tign te thdng qua mdt khu vyc tai chinh mong manh dg dd vd. Theo hg, ng xau trong he thong ngan hang thudng la mdt trong nhiing nguyen nhan gay khung hoang ngan hang nhung thudng di trudc khung hoang dgn te. Khi khiing hoang tign te xay ra thi se nhanh chdng tic ddng lam trim trgng khiing hoang ngan hang, kit qua la ngn kinh tg roi vao khiing hoang kep.
Cudc khung hoang tign te tai eac nudc Ddng A nam 1997 da cho thay trudc khung hoang, cic nudc Chiu A cd ngn tang kinh te vi md tuang ddi tdt nhu tang tradng GDP cao, that nghiep thap, lam phat va chi tieu ngan sich dugc kiem soit, tham hut tai khoan vang lai d mire thap, ddng vdn diu tu nudc ngoai chay vao manh me, chinh tri va kinh tl dn dinh. Tuy nhign, dang sau hire tranh sing sua dd la nhihig vin dg cila he thdng ngan hang nhu ng xau tu ngudi vay trong nudc vdi nhirng khoan vay ngoai tg ngin ban tu nudc ngoai khdng diing cdng cu phdng ngiia nii ro ty gii.
Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thii tu
Nhin chung, ba the be vg md hinh canh bio khiing hoang tign te diu phan inh cac ygu td kinh tg nhu: chi sd CPI, tang trudng kinh te, thim but ngan sich, cin cin thanh toin, cung den, tin dung trong nudc va cic ygu td phi kinh tl nhu: ky vgng, hanh vi biy dan va tinh lan tmyln la ca sd cho viec xay dung md hinh canh bao sdm tiln te. Tuy nhign, Breuc: (2004) da dat ra cau hdi vl vai trd cua cic ylu to •' chg nhu 28 Tapchiflganhang so2o3/20ll
MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
N H Q N G VAN DE KINH T^ VT MO ^
khung phip luat, luat bao ve quyln sd hiiu, quy dinh tai ehinh... trong md hinh canh bio. Chinh vi vay, md hinh thi he thu 4 vl canh bao khung hoang tien te da ra ddi trgn ca sd kit hgp cac ylu td cila thg he md hinh thir 1, 2 va 3 va bd sung thgm ygu td thg chg vao md hinh.
2. Cac chi so'do luong nguy co rui ro Ichung hoang tien te va ung dung do'i voi dieu kien Viet Nam
2.1. Cdc chi so cdnh bdo
Cac cudc khung hoang tidn te, ngin hang trgn thg gidi gan day dgu cho thay miic do gay tdn that to Idn cua ehung tdi toan bd nen kinh tg ndi chung va loan bd he thdng ngan hang ndi rigng, chi phi cho tdng thiet hai chilm khoang 10 - 15% GDP. Chinh vi ly do dd ma cae chuygn gia kinh te, nha hoach dinh chinh sach va gidi diu tu ludn quan tam tdi cic tin hieu canh bio sdm vg rui ro tign te va boat ddng ngan hang.
Kaminsky, Lizondo va Reinhart (1998) da xiy dyng 105 chi sd va dugc chia thanh 6 nhdm, bao gdm:
- Nhdm khu vyc kinh tg ddi ngoai;
- Nhdm khu vyc tai chinh;
- Nhdm khu vyc san xuat thyc;
- Nhdm khu vyc chi tigu chinh phii;
- Nhdm cic ygu td ciu true va the che;
- Nhdm cac ygu td chinh tri.
Kaminsky va cac ddng sy da xay dung cac chi sd ndi trgn dya trgn nghign eiiu 26 cudc khung hoang ngan hang va 76 cudc khung hoang tien te vdi quy md Idn va nhd tai 20 ngn kinh tg trgn thg gidi (bao gdm ca cic nudc da va dang phit trign) trong giai doan
1970 - 1995. Hg cho rang tin hieu canh bio khung hoang tign te hieu qua nhit la cac chi tigu:
- San lugng thyc cua ngn kinh tg (gan day cic nghign cuu da chil trgng phin tich miie do ehgnh lech giua san lugng thyc va san lugng tigm nang cua ngn kinh te);
- Kim ngach xuat khau;
- Miic do ehgnh lech giiia ty gia thyc so vdi dudng xu thg;
- Gii cd phigu;
- Tdc do tang chi sd CPI;
- Tdc do tang cung tign, hay rdng ban niia la ty sd cung tign trgn tdng dy trii ngoai te.
Mdt sd chi tigu canh bio khac cung dugc sii dung nhung kem hieu qua hon la:
- Kim ngach nhap khau;
- Chgnh lech giiia lai suat tien gui thyc tl trong va ngoai nudc;
- Ty sd giiia tin dung trgn huy dgng vdn;
- Ty sd giiia lai suit cho vay tren lai suat tign gui;
- Tiln gui ngan hang.
Cic chi dgu dugc xay dyng bdi Kaminsky va cic ddng sy ciia dng dugc xem la cac chi sd quan trgng cho cic nha kinh tg lya chgn trong viec dinh gii rili ro khung hoang tign te va boat ddng ngin hang theo cic phuong phip phi tham sd. Tuy nhign, cac nha nghien cihi kinh tg gin day da cd nhiing y kign phg phan each tiep can ciia Kaminsky va cac ddng sy khi dua ra qui nhigu chi sd canh bio khign cho viec lya chgn cic ngudng canh bio rui ro khung hoang tien te va ngin hang trd ngn khd khan va kem hieu qua.
Chinh vi ly do dd ma cac nha nghign cuu gan day da tign hanh lya chgn mdt sd cic chi sd canh bio quan trgng dai dien dac trung cho 6 nhdm trong cic md hinh thi he thu nhit, thir hai, thir ba dg dinh gii xic suit xay ra khiing hoang tign te va ngan hang trong cic md hinh Logit hoae Probit, hay cdn ggi la phuang phip tham sd. Viec sii dung md hinh tham sd cd tie dung cho bigt thdi diem ed xic suit xay ra khiing hoang trong vdng 12-24 thing ciing nhu cic ham y chinh sich trong md hinh.
2.2. Ung dung doi vdi dieu kien Viet Nam Viec canh bio sdm rUi ro kinh te vi md va khiing hoang tign te dugc tic gia xiy dyng dya trgn md binh canh bio sdm (EWS) tham sd. Theo cic nghign cuu trgn thg gidi gin day, ngn kinh tg cd dau hieu khiing hoang tign te quy md nhd khi ty gii hdi doii thyc (RER) vugt qua ngudng trung binh ciia nd tii 2 den 3 lin do lech chuan (se) trong vdng tii 2 - 3 thang lign tuc trd Ign hoae ty gii hdi doii thyc lech khdi xu thg cua nd keo dai lign tuc tir 3 thing trd Ign'. Do vay, md hinh EWS rili ro kinh tg vi md va khiing hoang tidn te cd dang nhu sau:
2.2.1 Md hinh Logit
Dya trgn dii lieu thu thap theo thing tir 01/1996 - 12/2009, md binh bam Logit vdi thdi gian dy bio 12 thing den 24 thing dugc su dung. Vdi khung thdi gian canh bio trong vdng 12-24 thing, dung ham Logit ta ed md hinh canh bio sdm rui ro khung hoang tign te nhu sau:
Crisisj t = 1, ngu ty gii thyc lech khdi muc xu thg trong vdng 24 thing;
= 0, ngu khdng cd diu bieu vugt khdi miic xu thg trong vdng 24 thing;
Ggi Crisisj j la xic suit xay ra rui ro khiing hoang tien te trong vdng 24 thing tdi, md hitih se la:
Crisis, 1
\ + e -(«(,+«, J^l,,,+«2Jf2,J+-.+%^*i.,) ^ '
Md hinh cd 1 bign phu thuge va cic bien dgc lap Tap chi rtgan hang so 203 /20II 29
MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
^ N H Q N G V A N D E KINH T £ VT MO
(cic bien dgc lap the hien cic chi sd cinh b i o ve khiing hoang tien te).
2.2.2 Cdc bien sii dung trong md liinh 2.2.2.1 Biin phu thudc
CrisiSj ( l i y gii tri 1 hay 0 tuy theo chi sd RER cd
\'ugt ngudng cinh bio trong vdng 24 thing.
2.2.2.2 Bien doc lap
Viec lya chgn cic bign dgc lap (chi sd canh bio tien te) dya tren cic chi sd cua Kaminsky va cic cdng sy cua dng, cic bign nay phan inh cic yeu td kinh tg giy ra rui ro khiing hoang tien te. Viec dua cac chi sd canh bio tign te vao md hinh phai dam bao y nghia thdng ke va cd dugc cic ggi y chinh sich dg giam thieu va ban chg khung hoang trong tuong lai.
2.2.3 Ngudn die lieu
Dii lieu vdi quan sit theo thing tir 01/1996-12/2009 dugc thu thip tu Tdng cue Thdng kg, Quy Tign te Qudc tl (IMF), Ngin hang Phit trien Chau A (ADB) va Ngin hang Thg gidi (WB).
2.2.4 Ddnh gid chat luang cdnh bdo
M
Dau hieu canh b i o cd riii ro khiing hr hay khdng cd rui ro khung hoang trong vdng 1 - -'-''•' ^4 thing dugc chia thanh cic diu hieu canh bao theo ma tran nbu sau: (xem Bdng 2)
Sai lim loai I: ClA+C Sai lim loai II: B/B-i-D
Ty le canh bao diing: A-i-D/A-i-B-i-C+D Miic do giy nhieu: (B1B+D)1(AJA+C) 2.2.5 Kit qud thuc nghiem
Kgt qua udc lugng cho thiy cac chi sd canh bio trong md hinh dgu cd y nghia thdng kg cao d miic 1, 5 va 10%. Trgn co sd udc lugng md hinh canh bio khung hoang tien te, chiing ta cd thg thay:
- Md hinh 1 gdm 6 bien, trong dd cd 5 bign co y nghia thdng kg d muc 1 va 10%, giai thich 49% tic ddng giy rili ro khung hoang tign te tai Viet Nam bao gdm: bign ddng ty gii, tang trudng tin dung, thim hut tai khoan vang lai, muc dy trii ngoai hdi va tdc do tang cung tign.
- Md hinh 2 gdm 7 bign, trong dd cd 6 bign cd y
Bang 1: Giai thich cac chi s6 canh bao anh hudng den xae suSt xay ra khung hoang 1 Bien doc lap
Bien kinh te trong nudc Ty gia thyc
Tham hut tai khoan vang lai/GDP Ty le tang dy ttir ngoai hdi Ty le xuit khiu
Ng nudc ngoai ngan han/Dy trii ngoai hdi Tdc do tang trudng tin dung ngi dia Cung tign M2/dy trir
Tang trudng kinh tg trong nudc Bien kinh te qudc te Tdc do tang gii diu thg gidi Tang trudng kinh te My
Viet tat trong md hinh
RER CURENTAC
RESERVE EXGROWTH SHORTDEPT CREDGROWTH
M2RESERVE GROWTH
OIL_PG USGROWTH
Gia trj
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
7
Tac dong du kien tdi khiing hoang
Tang Tang Giam Giam Tang Tang Tang/giam Tang/giam
Tang Tang/giam
Ngudn
IMF IMF IMF IMF IMF IMF IMF GSO
IMF IMF
Bang 2: Cac dau hieu canh bao rui ro
Rui ro ty gii trong vdng 24 thing Khdng ed nii ro vg ty gii trong vdng 24 thing
Dau hieu canh bio A B
Khdna cd diu higu canh bio C D
Luu y: Viec ry gid vic0 khoi diim xu thi dihi ra trin 3 thdng Id ddu hieu bdo trudc cua khdn^ tiin ti 30 Tap chi ftgan hang so 2o3 /20II
li MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
N H Q N G VAN DE KINH T S VT M 6 ^
Bang 3: Ket qua mo hinh canh bao sdm tien te (EWS) Bien
RER
CREDGROWTH CURRENTAC RESERVE M2RESERVE EXGROWTH SHORTDEPT GROWTH USGROWTH OIL_PG He sd khdng ddi R2
Sai lim loai I Sai lim loai II Miie do gay nhigu
EWS(l) 0,0035***
(0,00) 0,0030*
(0,07) 0,1192***
(0,01) -0,1765***
(0,01) -6,2827***
(0,00) 0,0033(0,85)
-31,7608***
(0,00) 0,49 0,16 0,09 0,10
EWS(2) 0,0048***
(0,00) 0,0216
(0,60) 0,2531***
(0,00) -0,1778*
(0,06) -7,3704***
(0,00) 0,1116***
(0,01) -0,3544**
(0,05)
-46,9844***
(0,00) 0,56 0,13 0,14 0,16
EWS(3) 0,0046***
(0,00) 0,0314
(0,43) 0,2446***
(0,00) -0,1915*
(0,08) -7,7603***
(0,00)
0,1035**(0,02) -0,3502***
(0,01) -0,2177*
(0,06) 0,0491*
(0,07) -41,9990***
(0,00) 0,58 0,16 0,17 0,22
Luu y: P-value nam trong ddu ngogc; *** cdy nghia thdng ke 1 %; ** cdy nghia thdng ke 5%; * cdy
• nghia thdng ke 10%;
nghia thdng kg, giai thich 56% tic ddng giy rui ro khung hoang tien te bao gdm: bign ddng ty gii, tang trudng tin dung, tham hut tai khoan vang lai, miie dy trir ngoai hdi, tde do tang cung dgn, ng ngin ban va tang trudng kinh tg.
- Md hinh 3 gdm 9 bien, trong dd cd 8 bign cd y nghia thdng kg giai thieh 58% tie ddng cua cic bien giy riii ro khiing hoang bao gdm: bign ddng ty gii, tang trudng tin dung, thim hut tai khoan vang lai, muc dy trii ngoai hdi, tdc do tang cung dgn, ng ngin ban, tang trudng kinh tg Hoa Ky va gia dau thg gidi.
Nhiing bign trong md hinh canh bao la nhung nhan td CO ban dg phan tich kha nang gay ra rui ro tiln te
tai Viet Nam va kign nghj chinh sich trong bdi canh cac can ddi kinh tg vi md cua Viet Nam ehua thyc sy ben viing.
Ket luan
Trgn ca sd ly thuyet cac md hinh canh bao thg he thii nhat, thir hai, va thii ba, md hinh xay dyng trong bai vigt chi mdi chi dung lai tai md hinh thi he thii nhit. Viec xay dyng va phit trien cic md hinh canh bio the he thu hai va ba la hgt siic cin thilt trong bdi canh thi trudng tai chinh - tign te Viet Nam dang hdi nhip vao khu vyc va thg gidi. Do dd, tic ddng lan truygn rui ro khiing hoang tien te va ngin hang tii cic
Tapchiflganhang s62o3/20ll 31
^ NHUTNG VAN DE KINH TE VT MO
Jl
nude trong khu \yc \ a tren thg gidi tdi Viet Nam la rit Idn. Han thg niia, rili ro khiing hoing tign te va boat ddng ngan hang din dgn tir cic dgt tin cdng diu co vao ddng ndi te cd kha nang lan truygn trgn pham vi tOan ngn kinh tg la rat Idn.
Nhiing dign bign trgn thi trudng ngoai hdi gan day ciing phan inh ky vgng va tam ly biy dan trong viec diu ca va gam giii ngoai te.
Tren ca sd phin tich kgt qua udc lugng md hinh canh bio rui ro khung hoang dgn te va cic ly thuygt vg md hinh canh bao sdm, de han chg rui ro khung hoang tign te va ngin hang tai Viet Nam trong tuong lai, can luu y:
Thie nhdt, thyc tign quan sit cic nudc cd khung hoang tign te va boat ddng ngin hang cho thay tang trudng tin dung cao ludn di trudc khiing hoang dgn te. Mgt trong nhiing nguygn nhan khign tang trudng tin dung cao tai mdt sd nudc dang phit trien va chuygn dich co ciu kinh te la viec chi tigu ngan sach dugc tien te hda. Tang trudng tin dung cao ludn di kem lam phit, do dd, muc tigu kigm soit tang trudng tin dung phai la muc tigu hanh ddng sd mdt trong mdt ngn kinh tg bi tign te hda. Bgn canh dd, viec tang cung dgn can hudng vao muc tigu uu tign sd 1 la kigm soit gia chii khdng phii muc tigu tang trudng kinh te.
Thie hai. Viet Nam trong giai doan 2001 - 2010 dugc ghi nhin la mdt trong nhiing nudc cd tdc do tang trudng cao trong khu vyc. gdp phin quan trgng trong chign lugc xda ddi giam ngheo ciia Viet Nam.
Mac dii tang ttudng cao nhung chit lugng ciia tang trudng thyc sy la vin dg can dugc quan tam. Tang trudng Viet Nam hien nay qui phu thudc vao vdn, do viy, md hinh tang trudng dya \'ao vdn se khdng cdn phit huy tic dgng Idn ddi \di tang trudng cua Viet Nam irons
thdi gian tdi. Trong giai doan 2011 - 2015, Viet Nam khdng nen dat muc tigu tang trudng kinh tl cao d mdc 7,5 hay 8,0%/nam. Vi dat muc dgu tang trudng cao se di kem lam phit trong bdi canh cac can ddi vi md cua chiing ta chua bgn virng.
Viet Nam chi ngn hudng tdi miic tang trudng d muc 7%/nam la phu hgp vdi nang lye cua nen kinh te, do dd, se khdng tao i p lye cho he thdng ngin hang trong viec huy ddng cic ngudn lye cho tang trudng. Trong giai doan nay, Viet Nam ngn tip trung dn dinh cic cin ddi vi md va tii ciu triic md hinh tang trudng dg tao da cho tang trudng cao trong cic giai doan tigp theo.
Thie ba, tai khoan vang lai cua Viet Nam trong nhigu nam lign tyc d trang thai tham hut. Digu nay cd nghia la tigt kiem ludn thip ban dau tu trong nude, dg bii dap trong khoang tham hut nay, binh quin mdi nam Viet Nam se phai di vay nudc ngoai mdt khoan vay tuong ling khoang tii 6,5 - 7% GDP. Diy ciing la mgt nguyen nhan chinh khign ng cdng cua Viet Nam dang d miic cao so vdi nhigu nudc trong khu vyc. Do dd, chi dgu Chinh phii can ban chg va dugc kigm soit mgt cich hieu qua, trinh su dung diu tu edng dg tao tang trudng kinh tg. Thyc dgn phit triln cic nudc tren the gidi cho thiy, diu tu cdng vao boat ddng kinh tl ludn kem bieu qua va khdng tao ra tang trudng Idn. Ngu sii dung diu tu cdng de tao ra tang trudng khdng chi cd nguy co diu tu cdng lin it diu tu khu vyc tu nhan, ma cdn giy ra lam phit.
Thu tu, xuit khau cua Viet Nam hien nay la xuat thd cd gii tri thip la chinh trong khi dd phai nhap khiu cic ygu td dau vao cho tang trudng. Do dd. dg ddi mdi md hinh tang trudng kinh tg mdt cich cd hieu qua, Viet Nam can cd chien
lugc trong xuit khau ^,°
cic mat hang va dich \ '^^^^
cd gia tri gia tang tri' . aai nail, trong khi do co ciu nli '<r Idiau phai hgp ly, chii trgng ':• : l^hau cac san phim cd tic aaag nang cao nang suit lao ddng cua ngn kinh te.
Do vay, tham hut tai khoan vang lai se thip ban va giam thilu dugc rui ro khung hoang dgn te. Digu nay ciing ham y ring trong 10 nam tdi, 2011 - 2020, chung ta ngn chii trgng phit ttiln nganh cdng nghiep phu trg. Nhiing bai hge thanh cdng hay that bai rut ra trong chign lugc phit trign cdng nghiep cua cac nudc di trudc nhu Thai Lan, Malaysia hay Indonesia ciing cin dugc tham khao.
Thu ndm, ddi vdi chinh sich tai khda, Viet Nam can da dang cic ngudn thu trgn ca sd cic quy dinh eda phip luat va thyc hien quan ly ehi tigu ed hieu qua, hudng tdi thu hep din bdi chi ngan sich dudi 4%
tham cbl la dudi 3% GDP sau nam 2015; cin tang cudng sy kgt hgp hieu qua va ddng bd giiia chinh sich tai khda va tign te trong cdng tic dieu hanh kinh tg vi md.
Thie sdu, cin phai xay dyng mgt thg chg viing chac, dac biet trong linh vyc ngan hang. Thyc tien phit trign khu vyc tai chinh - ngin hang cua nhigu nudc trgn thg gidi da cho thay, sy nhiet thanh cua mdt sd nudc trong viec ty do hda he thdng tai chinh khi thigu cic dieu kien can ban cin thigt vg mat thg chg se lam cho he thdng tai chinh - ngan hang phai ddi pho vdi nhigu riii ro ve khung hoang dd vd ngan hang.a
' Do Viet Nam chua timg xav ra khung hodng tien te, do vay, tdc gid gid dinh rdng Viet t^am co ddu hiiu rdi ro khiing hodng tiin te quy mo nho khi RER vuot qua ngudng trimg binh ciia no tu2 - 3 lan se hodc \i,'</t qua diim xu thi ciia no trong von:; j _ j thane lien tuc.
32 TapchiOganhang s6 2o3/20
