c d CHE DA PHadNG KHU VL/C:
MOT SO TAC DONG T6| VAI TRO TRUNG TAM CUA ASEAN VA HAM Y CHINH SACH
DOI v d l VIET NAM
NGUYEN HONG QUAN*
NGUYfeN VAN KHU**
Tom tdt: Trong nhdng thgp ni&n gdn ddy, chu nghia da phuang dd trd thdnh md hinh hgp tdc chinh gida cdc qudc gia d khu vdc chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang. Td khi Diin ddn Khu vdc ASEAN (AMF) ddgc thdnh lap ndm 1994, khu vdc ndy da trdi qua thdi ky bung nd cdc ea chi hgp tdc an ninh da phuang. Mgt logt diin ddn da dUac hinh thdnh d nhiiu cdp do, chinh thdc vd khdng chinh thdc. Cdc ca che ndy dd gdp phdn duy tri hoa binh, on dinh, tgo diiu kiin cho kinh ti khu vdc phdt trien nhanh vd on dinh. Tuy nhien, cd quan diim nghi ngd vi vai trd an ninh khu vUc cHa cdc ca chi ndy. Su phdt triin, md rgng cua cdc ca che hgp tdc da phuang cd gdy phuang hgi tdi vai trd trung tdm cua ASEAN trong nhdng ndm tdi? Diiu do cd hdm y gl ddi vdi chinh sdch cua Viet Nam trong thdp ky tdi? Bdi viit phdn tich sU phdt trien vd md rgng cua cdc ca chi da phuang d khu vuc; gidi trinh ly do bung no cdc thi chi da phuang vd xu hudng phdt triin tuang lai; ddnh gid tdc dgng cua cdc ca chi da phdang ddi vdi vai trd trung tdm eda ASEAN.
Cudi cung, cdc tdc gid xin neu len mot sd hdm y ddi vdi Viet Nam trong 10 nam tdi.
Tit: khoa: ca chi hgp tdc da phuang; vai trd an ninh khu vuc; vai tro trung tdm eda ASEAN.
1. Stf p h a t t r i e n v a m& r g n g c u a c a c chau A - Thai Binh Difcfng, tao r a "khoang ctf c h e da phiftfng cf c h a u A Thai trong quy^n life" d khu vifc'^'. Cac nUde lo Binh Diitfng ^g^. ^g ^^ ^^^ i^^ ^^^ ^^.^^^ q^^^ ^^ ^^^^
Moi tritimg dia chien liicfc m&i Ban. Khi ay, kha nang va sii tham gia cua Chi&'n tranh Lanh ke't thuc khie'n moi Trung Quoc con h a n che', nhiAig khi anh tnJ&ng an ninh quoc te va khu vUc bie'n hUcfng kinh te va chinh tri ciia ciicfng quoc dpng. My va Nga deu giam sd hien dien cf nay tang len, cac niTcfc nho bat dau lo
^ Thie'u tudng, GS.TS. Nguyin Hong Quan, Vien Chien lUcJc Quoc phong
** NCS. Nguyin Van Khu, Dai hoc Khoa hpc xa hpi & Nhan van, Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Noi
Nghien cdu Dong Nam A, so 8/20l9_
ngai'2*. Trong khi do, khu vdc chau A Thai Binh DiTcfng chiJa c6 ccf che nao du kha nang giai toa nhOng lo ngai va thach thiic an ninh tren'^*. Chinh vi vay, da xuat hign y ti/cfng co che da phiftJng co kha nang dung hoa ca My, Trung Quo'c va Nhat Ban, dong thcfi dap iJng duac mong muon ciia cac nU6c nho, cac nudc dang phat trien trong viec duy tri hoa binh va on dinh d khu vu'c. Diln dan Khu vUc ASEAN (ARF) ra dcfi, danh da'u lan song bung no cac cd che da phuong dau tien & khu vuc.
Kinh te Trung Quoc phat trien nhanh chong da giup nUcfc nay cai thien dang k^
SLfc manh va vi the tren trU&ng quo'c te.
Trung Quo'c ngay cang tich cUc can dU vao khu vUc, dac biet la vao ASEAN. Tuy nhien, sU phat trien ay gay ra quan ngai ve nguy ccf can can quy^n lUc bi thay doi, tao ra thach thu'c mdi do'i vdi an ninh khu vu'c'*'. Khong it nudc lo ngai hi thon tinh, nen co xu hUdng ket be vdi nhau hoac lien minh vdi cac cUdng quoc khac d^ nang cao kha nang ran de cua minh'^l My tim each hinh thanh cac cap do hop tac da phuong de CO duoc kha nang ran de ldn hcfn'^'. Cac nUdc khu vuc mong muo'n hinh thanh ccf che hcfp tac da phUdng co kha nang dung hoa va dung nap tat ca cac nUdc ldn, hUdng tdi can bang chi§'n lu'cfc va can bang quyen lUc d khu viTc. Day co the la each ti&'p can tot nhat do'i vdi an ninh khu vdc.
Mat khac, Trung Quoc tr6i day dung thdi ky toan cau hda phat trien nhanh chong. Ttr dau nhCfng nam 1990, toan cau hoa tao ra giai doan phat trien biing no cf chau A - Thai Binh Duong. Nhat Ban, Han Quoc, Dai Loan va Singapore dugc xem la
"bon con ho" phat trien kinh te d chau A, khich le mdt loat qudc gia khac md ciia thi trUdng va hoi nhap vao nen kinh te the
gidi, tao ra sU ttiy thuoc iSn nhau ngay cang tang. Cac quo'c gia mud'n phat trien Idnh t§
thi khong con each nao khac ngoai viec thuc day tU do thucfng mai''^'. Mot loat hi&p dinh thuong mai tu do song phUOng va da phuong duoc ky ke't, dan de'n bijng no ccf che hop tac kinh te da phucfng d khu vdc.
Nhffng thdch thffe m&i
Trong the ky 21, ban chat thach thdc an ninh truyen thong va phi truyen thong thay doi nhanh chong. Kh6ng chi UU tien giai quyet cae thach thdc truy6n thong, cac quoc gia con phai dng pho hieu qua vdi cac thach thdc phi truyen tho'ng*^'. Tai khu vdc, cang thang trong tranh chap lanh tho, lanh hai CO xu hUdng gia tang, trong khi d6, thach thdc an ninh phi truyen thong lai noi len, trd thanh moi de dpa thUcfng trUc nhU bien doi khi hau, t h a m hpa thien tai, buon lau, cUdp bien, ma ttiy, tan cong mang va tpi pham xuy6n quoc gia..., de dpa sd ton vong va thinh vdong cua cac quoc gia*-^'.
Thach thde nay cd dac diem chung la:
pham vi xuyen quoc gia; phat trien nhanh chong; sdc tan pha quy mo ldn; khd xac dinh chu the gay ra thach thdc'^'^'. Do do, khong mpt quo'c gia dcfn le nao c6 the dng pho hieu qua vdi cac thach thdc nay, ma phai thong qua hpp tac da phdcfng d cap khu vuc. Day chinh la dpng lUc quan trpng d&n tdi each tie'p can hpp tac da phuong de giai quyet cac thach thdc d khu viic.
Trong boi canh do, vai trd ciia lUc lddng quoc phong co sU phat trien mdi. Thd nhdt, dam traeh them vai tro thuc day hop tac quoc phong, mot bp phan ca'u t h a n h cua chinh sach doi ngoai va an ninh'^^', hinh t h a n h cac quan he dong minh, ban be. My gpi each tie'p can nay la "can dd chie'n lucfc", nham giam thieu kha nang
Nguyin Hong Qudn, Nguyen Vdn Khu - Ca che da phuang khu vdc...
xay ra xung dot; thuc day quan he dan sd - qu§n Si/^^'. Thd hai, Idc lddng quoc phong dupc bo sung mpt so chdc nang va nhiem vu mdi, nhd flng phd vdi cac thach thdc an ninh phi truyen thd'ng. ARF, Hpi nghi Bp trddng Quoc phong cac nudc ASEAN (ADMM) va H6i nghi Bo trddng Quoc phong cac nddc ASEAN va cac nddc Doi tac (ADMM+) la cac cd ch§' dien hinh trong hdp tac dng phd vdi cac thach thdc an ninh phi truyen thong, dac biet la trong linh vdc cdu trp nhan dao va tham hpa, chd'ng khung bo, chd'ng cddp Men.
Bon xu hiCcfng chinh cua h&p tdc da phiicfng khu vUc
Trddc tien, hinh thanh cac di§n dan mdi vdi sU tham gia cua ta't ea cac nddc thanh vien ASEAN. ASEAN phat huy dupc vai trd trung tam, qua viec ap dung cac nguyen tac, chuan mUc trong eac co che hpp tac da phddng mdi tai ARF, ADMM+
hoac Hpi nghi Cap cao Bong A (EAS). Cac nddc muo'n trcf t h a n h do'i tac cua ASEAN deu phai chap nhan "Phdong thdc ASEAN"
va ky ke't Hiep Udc Hiiu nghi va Hpp tac (TAC). Dieu nay giup ASEAN ddng vai tro cam lai trong nhieu boat ddng da phUcfng d khu viic.
Xu hudng thd hai, hinh t h a n h cac cd ehe da phdong mdi khong cd su tham gia day du cua cac t h a n h vien ASEAN'^^'. Cac CO che' nay dUpc hinh t h a n h tr&n cd sd lien ke't dia ly la chu yeu. B§n canh dd, con co cac cd che hdp tac dUa tren moi quan tam an ninh chung nhd Thda thudn nam quoc gia ve qudc phdng (FPTA). Trong ca hai trddng hdp tren, sd tham gia cua mot so' nudc t h a n h vien ASEAN co the giup truyen ba nguyen t i e va chuan miic cua ASEAN ra khu vdc rong ldn hcfn, tao moi
lien ket va hdp tac gida ASEAN vdi cac t6 chdc khac trong cac linh viic cung quan tam. Sii lien ke't gida ASEAN vdi APEC hoac ARF the hien tam anh hddng cua ASEAN tai cac cd che nay, dac biet la trong khuon kho nguyen tSc chung.
Xu hudng thd ba, hinh thanh eac to chdc mdi, khong cd sd tham gia cua bat ky mgt nddc ASEAN nao'^*'. Cac t6 chdc nay CO cd ehe, nguyen tac hoat dpng rieng, cd the khac biet vdi ASEAN, nhd khSng ap dung nguyen tac "dong thuan" cua ASEAN.
Xu hudng thd td, ngay cang hUdng tdi cac chddng trinh hpp tac qud'e phong va an ninh. Trong moi trddng chidn Iddc bie'n dpng va thach thde an ninh n6'i len, chUdng trinh nghi sd cua cac co ch6' hpp tac da phddng khu vUc ngay cang dich chuyen sang Cfng phd vdi thach thdc quo'c phong va an ninh<^^'. Chuong t n n h nghi sU cua ASEAN ngay cang tap trung vao cac van de quoc phong va an ninh, trong khi nhieu CO che hpp tac an ninh mdi ddpe hinh thanh, cac cude hpp lien quan den linh vdc nay tdng vpt; dong thdi cung thuc day hinh t h a n h eac diln dan an ninh mdi b khu viic nhd Do'i thoai Shangri-La, Diln dan Hucfng Sdn-Bac Kinh, Doi thoai An ninh Tokyo, Doi thoai An ninh Seoul, Hdi nghi An ninh Moscow...
Hign tffOng chSng ldn cua cac ccf che da phff&ng khu vffe
Su phat t r i l n va md rdng nhanh chdng cija cac cd che hpp tac da phdcfng dan de'n chong lan ve pham vi, thanh vien, quy mo va ca chddng trinh hpp tac.
Thd nhdt, xu hddng ehong lan gida cac cd ch&' ve pham vi khu vdc dam trach. Hien CO it nhat 7/18 co ehe da phddng khdng dda tren tieu chi lien ket dia ly (xem Bang
Nghien cdu Dong Nam A, sd 8/20j9_^
1)'^^*. Chinh vi vay, sU chong lan ve khu viic dia ly kha phdc tap (xem So d6 1).
Thd hai, ch6ng lan ve chuong trinh va boat dpng hpp tae. Hien nay, hau het cac cd che da phdong & khu vdc deu cd chuong trinh hpp tac ve an ninh, trong do c6 the ehong lan, khac biet, tham chi la trai ngdpc vdi nhau. Vi du, APEC ra Tuygn bo' chung ve chd'ng khung bo' tai cupc hpp Thdpng dinh nam 2001 (tai Thdpng nkip'^\ CM 13 ngay sau, ASEAN cung ra Tuyen bo chung Hanh dpng eho'ng khung bo''^^'. Do dd, nhCfng nddc thanh vien cua ASEAN va APEC phai tuan thu ca hai van kien tren, trong dd co the cd chi tiet va npi dung khac biet nhau; hoac ca ARF va ADMM+ deu cd chdcfng trinh hpp tac ve cdu hd, cdU nan, ke ca hpp tac tren thiie dia.
Bang 1 phan anh quy rao, pham vi cua cac linh viic hpp tac hi chong lan gida cac ca che hdp tac khu vdc. H^u he't cae to chdc khu vdc deu cd chucfng trinh hpp tae dng pho vdi nhdng thach thdc an ninh phi truyen thd'ng*^^'. Do do, can dieu pho'i de tranh chong lan, g§y lang phi khong can thie't'20».
2. Tac dpng d6'i vcfi vai tro t r u n g tilm cua ASEAN
Sd phat trien nhanh chdng eua cac ca'u true da phuong co the phddng hai tdi sd doan ket ASEAN:
Thd nhdt, xu hudng phat trien cac cO che da phdcfng mdi khong ed sd tham gia ciia ASEAN hoac cac nddc thanh vien ASEAN se lam cho vai tro trung tam ciia ASEAN bi thaeh thdc. To chdc Hpp tac Thdpng Hai (SCO) hoac Diln dan cac dao qud'c Thai Binh Ddcfng (PIF) da tao ddng anh hddng thong qua md rpng thanh vien.
ca che va chdOng trinh hpp tac, dong thdi ngay cang ddng vai trd trung tam trong hdp tac khu viic, tham chf canh tranh vdi ASEAN. SCO da quyet dinh md rpng thanh vien, len ke hoach md rong vi thd' va vai tro, hddng tdi trd thanh "mot co che da phdcfng giai quyet eac va'n de cap bach hien nay, dam bao an ninh, on dinh va phat trien ben vdng toan khu viic"'^^'.
Thd hai, mdt s6' thanh vidn ASEAN tham gia cac ccf che da phdong khdng do ASEAN lam ndng cd't, cd the lam cho cac thanh vien ASEAN khac nghi ngd rang hp khdng Uu tien cao cho ciing cd' vi thd' trung tam cua ASEAN nda. Thai Lan coi cac co chg' da phdong chi la mdt cdng cu bo trd cho hdp tac song phdong^^^'. Indonesia nghi ngd vai tro trung tam ciia ASEAN'^^', UU tien tham gia cac cd chd' qud'e te ldn hcfn nhu Diln dan Dan chu Bali (BDF) hoac G20'^^*. Nhdiig quan diem ay lam xdi mdn sii doan ket trong ASEAN. Neu khong gan ket trong khoi, cac co ehe an ninh khu vdc de bi ben ngoai chi pho'i, tr^t tii an ninh khu vdc CO the bie'n tddng sang trat tii cddng quyen hoac eanh t r a n h quyen liic gida cac nddc Idn'^^', khong eo ldi eho ASEAN va cac nddc t h a n h vidn.
Thd ba, canh t r a n h gida cac cUdng qud'c trong cac co che da phdong do ASEAN gid vai tro chu dao cung de dpa vai trd trung tam ciia ASEAN. Lich sd da chu^g minh, moi quan he chinh tri gida cac cudng quo'c ludn cd tac dpng quan trpng de'n hpp tac da phddng, trong do cac co che do ASEAN lanh dao khong la ngoai le'^^l Su canh tranh dd gay nghi ngd l i n nhau trong quan he vdi ASEAN. Trung Quo'c ngay cang lo ngai ve quan he cua Nhat Ban, An Do va Australia khong chi vdi ASEAN ma ca vdi cac nddc t h a n h vien ciia to chdc nay. Theo
Nguyin Hong Qudn, Nguyen Vdn Khu - Ca che da phdang khu vuc...
Sd d6 1. Sii c h o n g l a n v l k h u vtfc dia ly d a m trach c u a c a c ctf c h e da phtftfng k h u vtfc c h a u A - Thai B i n h Dtftfng
The Matrix of Multilateral Mechanisms in the Indo-Pacific Region
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Asian Nations
ANZUS - AusHalia - New Zealand - US treaty
APEC - Asia-PacTfJc Economic Co peratlon
SRICS- Braiil-Russia-Cliina-Sout Africa EU-Euraoean Union
F P D A - R v e P wer Defenc Arrangemen EAS-East A6ia Summit
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Trung Quo'c, viec nang cap quan hd An Dp - ASEAN len tam "do'i tac chi§'n Idpc" la bddc di cua ASEAN nham can bang a n h hddng vdi Trung Quoc d khu vUc'^'^'. Hdn niia, Trung Qud'c ludn coi cac cd che da phuong la cong eu de My "the ehe hda sU can dd" vao khu vdc'^^', kiem che sii phat
trien cua nUde nay. Di^u quan trpng nha't do'i vdi ASEAN la can tranh ehpn ben khi xem xet ung hp hay khong ung hp cae chuong trinh nghi sii cua nhdng nddc ldn, dac biet la khi cac chdOng t n n h nghi sii dd phuc vu cho muc dich eiing co vi th§' va vai trd nddc ldn trong cac cd che an ninh trpng
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Bang 1; Sl^ chong lan giula cac
Cd che'
ADMM ADMM + APEC ARF ASEAN ASEAN+
BIMSTEC BRICS EAS PPDA GMS ISMMD LMI PIE SAARC SCO SLD T&QSC CPTPP
Gidfi han khu viic dia ly
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thong 06 Co 06 Co 06 06 06 C6 Co 06 06 06 06 Co Co Co 06 Co 06
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yeu nhu ARF, ADMM+ hay APEC.
Thd tu, sii chong ian ve cac dU an va chddng trinh hpp tac gida ASEAN va eac CO che hpp tac do ASEAN lam chu dao co the lam suy yeu vai tro trung tam cua ASEAN. Hien co qua nhieu co che da phddng tap trung vao giai quyet cac van de
chong lan vdi nhau, dae biet la trong Imh vdc hpp tac qud'e phdng va an ninh. Sd chong lan trong chddng trinh hdp tac va d i l n tap HADR ciia ADMM-i- va ARF khien cac nddc t h a n h vien phai phan bo hpp ly nguon Idc cho cac hoat dpng tren.
Dieu tucfng tU cung xay r a d co che Ddi thoai Shangri-La. Theo mpt so hpc gia
Nguyin Hong Qudn, Nguyin Vdn Khu - Ca che da phdang khu ^
khu vdc can cat giam cac co che hdp tac da phddng, tranh dan trai nguon liic, nen chpn cd che d^ tap trung ngu6n liic t h a m gia; it cd chd' hdn cd the tao ra nhieu ccf hpi hdp tac va tap trung hcfn.
3. Ham y doi vcfi Vi^t N a m
Hoa binh va on dinh khu vdc tao thu$n Ipi cho Viet Nam tid'n h a n h chinh sach DSi mdi, duy t n phat trien on dinh, thuc day cac ldi ich an ninh va kinh te, dong thdi nang cao vi the quoc gia tren trddng quoc te. Sau khi trd thanh t h a n h vien ASEAN, Viet Nam da tich cdc hdi nh§p. Muc tieu hpi nhap toan dien vao ASEAN la mot trong nhOftig dinh hddng chinh trong chinh sach dd'i ngoai, gdp phan vao t h a n h cdng sau hon 30 nam thiic hien chinh sach Doi mdi. Trong suo't qua tiinh do, ASEAN ludn duy tri dupc vi the trung tam trong viec giam sat sd phat trien cua ca'u true khu vdc trong bb'i canh canh t r a n h My - Trung, gdp phan thuc day hda binh, an ninh va on dinh d khu vdc.
Trong linh vdc chinh tri va an ninh, Viet Nam coi ASEAN la diem tda chie'n lUdc de md rpng quan he vdi khu vdc va eac eddng quo'c thS' gidi. ASEAN cung la didn dan de Viet Nam giai quye't hda binh cac tranh chap, xung dot, tren co sd song phuong hoac da phuong. Trong linh vdc kinh te, ASEAN giup Viet Nam mcf rpng thi trUdng thUdng mai va dau td vdi cac quoc gia trong va ngoai ASEAN va to chdc qude te.
Tuy nhien, nhiJftig tac dpng doi vdi vai tro trung tam ciia ASEAN trddc sd bCing no cua cac ccf che da phddng khu viic co t h i khong ed ldi cho cac muc tieu chinh sach do'i ngoai Viet Nam. Tac dong dang chu y nhat, la su suy giam anh hddng vai trd
trung tam eua ASEAN tai cac diln dan qud'c te. Khi ay, vi the va quan diem cua Viet Nam tai cac cd che nay khong ddpe danh gia cao, bdi nd khong dUpc hau thuIn dac lUc td mpt ASEAN vdi vai trd c^m lai.
Viet Nam se gap kho khan trong viec dinh hinh cac khuon kho hpp tac khu vdc va qud'c te. Khi do, Viet Nam phai tuan thu cac nguyen tac, chuan mdc cua nude khac neu dUdc thdng qua tai cac ccf che da phdcfng, trong dd cd the co nhdng nguyen tae khong phii hdp vdi Ipi ich qud'c gia cua Viet Nam.
Sd chong lan trong chUdng trinh nghi su gida ASEAN va cac co che da phdong khac khie'n Viet Nam gap khd khan khi bo' tri nguon Idc tham gia. Viet Nam co the phai bd' tri dan trai nguon Idc han che cua minh, hoac chi tap trung vao mpt vai co ch§' quan trong. Neu ASEAN duy tri dUpc vi the trung tam, Viet Nam chi cln tap trung Uu tidn tham gia day du vao cac chdOng trinh nghi sii cua ASEAN, dong thdi thiic day sU can dU ra ngoai khu viic thdng qua cae ban dieu pho'i cua ASEAN tai cac cd che khae.
Mpt diem nda, khi cac cd che da phdcfng mdi xu§^t Men vdi sii tham gia cua m6t vai nUdc ASEAN, cac nUdc nay khong cdn du tien cao cho chdcfng trinh nghi sd cua ASEAN; nhdng nddc nay co the thoa hiep tai cd che mdi, trong dd cd cae van de nhay cam, lam xdi mon cac nguyen tac va chuan miic ciia ASEAN, anh hddng den Ipi ieh quoc gia ciia Viet Nam, dac biet la cac van de lien quan de'n tranh chap chu quyen.
Mot ASEAN ye'u hoac thieu doan ke't la cd hpi de cac cddng qud'c ehi phoi chuong trinh nghi sd, dan dat va dinh hddng to chdc nay thanh mpt co che phuc vu cho Ipi ieh rieng cua hp. Khi dd, ASEAN se trd thanh edng cu de cac eddng quoc canh tranh anh
Nghien cdu Dong Nom A, so 8/20l9_
hifdng, gay mat on dinh khu vdc. Mdt moi trddng nhd vay se khdng cd Ipi eho dinh hudng chinh sach ngoai giao cua Vi&t Nam vi mpt ASEAN manh va doan ket.
Cud'i cung, sii phat t r i l n cae cd che da phddng khu vdc ludn gan vdi sd canh tranh gay gat gida cae nddc ldn, nguy co tao ra cue dien cang thang khdng co Ipi cho an ninh va phat trien ciia Viet Nam. Tuy nhi&n, cang thang va canh tranh gida eac nude ldn, dac biet la gida My va Trung Quoc, de dpa hda binh, on dinh khu vdc vd'n ddpe ASEAN vdi vai tro trung tam hau thuSn trong nhieu nam qua. Trong khi do, hda binh, on dinh cung la mot trong nhOttig dieu kien tien quye't eho sU phat trien ben vdng va 6n dinh xa hpi cua Viet Nam. Ma't on dinh khu viic la mpt trong nhdng md'i de dpa va thach thdc dd'i vdi eac muc tieu phat trien cua Viet Nam, khie'n Viet Nam cd nguy cd bi tut hau ngay eang xa hdn.
Thay Icfi ke't l u a n
Su phat trien nhanh chong ciia cac cd chd' da phdcfng d khu vdc ehau A - Thai Binh Duong dien ra d nhieu cap dp, tao ndn mpt mang Iddi ca'u true hpp tac da phUOng phdc tap, dan xen, da tang na'c, trong do ed nhdng ccf ehe hdp tac vdi sii tham gia eua toan bp hoac mot so nddc ASEAN. Trong ehdng miie nha't dinh, sii phat trien dd cd the gdp phan cung co' vai tro cua ASEAN va vi the trung tam eua to chdc nay, nhung cung thaeh thdc vi the va vai tro cua ASEAN do ch6ng la'n ve trach nhiem, thanh phan tham gia, chdc ndng va linh vdc hpp tac cua cac co che eu va mdi. Ben canh dd, sd canh tranh gida cac ccf che mdi va cu, cung nhd canh tranh giiia cac cddng quo'c cung tae dpng, anh hudng nghiem trpng den vi the va vai trd eua ASEAN.
Vai tro dieu pho'i hoat dong hop tac da phdong d khu viic cua ASEAN bi suy y^u CO t b l khdng cd ldi dd'i vdi Viet Nam, dac biet trong viec duy tri mdi trddng hda binh, an ninh va on dinh cf khu viic^Mot mdi trddng khdng chac ehan va bat dn co the lam tram trpng hon cdc nguy cd va thach thdc ma Viet Nam dang phai dd'i mat, trong dd co nguy co bi bi tut hdu xa hdn ve kinh te; nguy cd hi xam pham chu quyen trong vung lanh th6, lanh hai. Vi the va vai trd trung tam cua ASEAN hi suy giam cung g^y kho khan cho Viet Nam trong viec chu dpng dinh hinh luat chdi &
khu viic, eung nhd viec nang cao vi the va anh hudng eua Viet Nam d khu vdc va trdn trudng qud'c td'.
La thanh vien ASEAN, ldi ich qud'c gia trong chinh sach dd'i ngoai ciia Viet Nam la phan da'u duy tri va thuc day Cpng dong ASEAN manh, cung cd' vai trd trung t a m cua ASEAN trong cac di&n dan hop tac da phUcfng khu vdc, eung nhd trdn toan t h ^ gidi. De thdc hien dddc muc tieu nay, Viet Nam can tich cdc va chu ddng phd'i hdp vdi cac quoc gia trong va ngoai ASEAN de cung ed' va tang cddng doan k&'t npi kho'i, xay ddng ASEAN t h a n h Cong dong vdng manh. Tiep dd, can xem xet dieu chinh mpt so' nguyen tac trong "Phdong thdc ASEAN" cho phu hpp vdi tinh hinh, cung nhd vi the mdi vdi td each la mpt Cdng dong. Can uu tien hpp tac vdi cae qud'c gia dong quan diem trong ASEAN, cung nhU eac dd'i tac quan trpng ngoai ASEAN, d6 cung cd' vai trd trung t a m cua ASEAN trong hop tac da phdcfng vi hda binh, an ninh va on dinh khu vdc, thuc day thinh vdpng ehung. Cud'i cung, c l n hgp tac vdi cac nddc trong va ngodi khu vdc de dam bao qua trinh phat trien cua cac co che da
Nguyin Hdng Qudn, Nguyin Vdn Khu - Ca che da phuang khu vdc...
n
phdcfng mdi Wiong thay the hoac phUdng hai de'n vi th&' va vai trd cua ASEAN trong ca'u true an ninh khu viic./.
CHU THICH
1. Erik Beukel (2008), "ASEAN and ARF in East Asia's Secunty Architecture: The role of Norm and Power", trong Danish Institute for International Studies, Report, So 4, tr. 27.
2. Erik Beukel (2008), Tdi lieu dd ddn, tr. 28.
S.Alice D. Ba (2016), "ASEAN and the Changing Regional Order: The ARF, ADMM, and ADMM-Plus", ASEAN@50, 4 (146 - 157), tr. 147.
4. Paul T.V., (2013), International Relation Theory and Regional Transformation, Cambridge University Press, tr. 8 - 9.
5. Kenneth N. Waltz (1979), "Theory of International Pohtics", Waveland Press In., tr. 127.
6. Stephen F. Burgess&Janet Beilstein (2017), "MultQateral Defence Cooperation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region: Tentative Steps toward a Regional NATO?", Contemporary Security Policy, 258 • 279, tr. 259.
7. Paul T.V., (2013), Tdi lieu dd ddn, tr. 125.
8. Devin T. Hagerty, Michael R. Chambers, and Amy L.Freeman (2012), "Defence Diplomacy in Southeast Asia", Asian Security, 8:3, tr. 224.
9. Mely Caballero-Anthony (2012), "Non- traditional security challenges, regional governance and the ASEAN Political Security Community", trong Ralf Emmers (2012), ASEAN and the Institutionalization of East Asia, Routledge Taylor &Francis Group, tr. 27.
10. Mely Caballero-Anthony (2012), Tdi lieu dd ddn.
11. Andrew Cottey and Anthony Forster (2004), Reshaping Defence Diplomacy: New Roles for Military Cooperation and Assistance, Oxford University Press, tr. 6.
12. Andrew Cottey and Anthony Forster (2004), Tai lieu dd ddn, tr.l3.
13. nhu CO chg' hpp tac trong Sang kien Ha ngu6n song Mekong (LMI), Tieu vung Mekong md rpng (GMS), va To chdc Hpp tac Kinh te chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC).
14. nhu Hiep h6i cac nUdc Nam A vi su hpp tac khu vuc (SAARC) hoac To chdc Hpp tac Thuang Hai (SCO).
15. Cong trinh nghi&n cdu ciia Bp Ngoai giao Indonesia cho thay, td nam 2009 - 2014, 42% van ban do ASEAN c6ng bd lifen quan de'n cac va'n d^ an ninh truyen thong va phi truyen tho'ng, trong khi cac cupc hpp lien quan de'n quoc phong - an ninh d khu vUc tang gap ba lin, td 40 (nam 2009) len 220 CUOC hpp (nam 2014); din theo Sarah Teo and Bhubhindar Suigh (ed.) (2016),
"The future ofthe ADMM/ADMM-Plus and defence diplomacy m the Asia-Pacific", S.
Rajaratham School of International Studies, tr. 15.
16. SCO md rpng tdi Pakistan, An Do vdi tU each thanh vien, hoac tdi Campuehia vdi tU each ddi tac doi thoai, phan anh tu duy md r6ng dua tren Ipi ich va moi quan tam ehig'n luoc chung, loi keo dong minh, chd khong can cd vao vi tri dia ly. Mot sd ccf che da phUcfng khac khong dUa tren tieu chi lien ket dia ly nhu FPDA hay ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, va Hoa Ky). FPDA gom 2 thanh vien ASEAN (Singapore and Malaysia), hai thanh vien chau Dai DUcfng (Australia and New Zealand), va mpt thanh vien chau Au (Vucfng quoc Anh), gay ra sU chong lan ve khu vUc dia ly dam trach cua cac CO che da phUcfng,
17. APEC (2001), "Statement on Counter- terrorism", Shanghai, China.
18. ASEAN (2001), "2001 ASEAN Declaration on Joint Action to Counter Terrorism".
19. ADMM+ va ARF deu tie'n hanh diin tap
12 Nghien cdu Ddng Nam A. so 8/20j9_
HDAR, ARF la DiREx (Diln tap Giam nhe thi§n tai, to cbdc lan dau td 2009) con vdi ADMM+ la dien tap HDAR (to chdc lan dau td 2013 tai Brunei). DiREx to chdc hai nam mpt lan. Ca hai hinh thdc diln tap nay co the to chdc tai lanh tho hoac tren viing bien cua cac thanh vi&n ASEAN.
20. ASEAN va D6'i thoai Shangri-la co nhieu chuong trinh chong lan, ca ve ccf chS', thanh phan tham gia va noi dung thao luan. Ca hai co chi nay deu tao dieu kien cho cac nudc tham gia thiic day hpp tac song phUcfng va da phuong thong qua cac cuoc gap ben le cac hoi nghi chinh.
21. SCO (2016), "The Tashkent Declaration of the Fifteenth Anniversary of the SCO".
22. Chulacheeb Chinwanno (2013),
"Thailand's Security PoUcy: Bilateralism or Multilateralism", in T. T. William and B.
Taylor (ed.), Bilateralism, Multilateralism and Asia-Pacific Security, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, tr. 83.
23. Leonard C. Sebastian (2013), "Indonesia's Dynamic Equilibrium and ASEAN Centrality", in Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks, the National Institute for Defence Studies, Japan, tr. 22-23.
24. Leonard C. Sebastian (2013), Tdi lieu dd dan, tr. 16.
25. G.John Ikenberry, Tdi lieu dd ddn, tr. 89.
26. Tae-Hyo Kim (2013), "Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia:
Relevance, Limitations, and Possibihties", in Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks, the National Institute for Defence Studies, Japan, tr. 110.
27. Mingiang Li (2013), "New Security Challenges for China in East Asia", in Prospects of Multdateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks, The National Institute for Defence Studies, Japan, tr. 64.
28. Satu Limaye (2013), "Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific:
To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks", The National Institute for Defence Studies, Japan, tr. 136.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Alice D. Ba (2016), "ASEAN and the Changing Regional Order: The ARF, ADMM, and ADMM-Plus", ASEAN@50, Vol.4, 146 - 157.
2. Amitav Acharya (2013), "ASEAN 2030:
Challenge of Building a Mature Political and Security Community", Asia Development Bank Institute, 441.
3. Ankit Panda (2016), "ASEAN Foreign Ministers Issue, Then Retract Communique Referencing South China Sea", The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2016/06.
4. Andrew Cottey and Anthony Forster (2004), Reshaping Defence Diplomacy: New Roles for Military Cooperation and Assistance, Oxford University Press.
5. APEC (2001), "Statement on Counter- terrorism, Shanghai, China", APEC, http://www.apec.org/Meeting-Papers/Leaders Declarations/2001/2001_aehn.
6. ASEAN (2001), "ASEAN Declaration on Joint Action to Counter Terrorism', http://asean.org/? static_post=2001-asean- declaration-on-joint-action-to-counter- terrorism.
7. Australian Government (2017), Australian Foreign Policy White Paper 2017, Canbera.
8. Brendan Taylor (2013), "Conceptualizing the Bilateral-Multilateral Security Nexus", in T. T. William and B. Taylor (ed.), Bilateralism, Multilateralism and Asia- Pacific Security, Routledge, Taylor &
Francis Group.
9. Bp Qu6'c phong Viet Nam (2009), Sdch trdng Quoc phong, NXB Quan doi nhan dan. Ha Npi;
10. Cari Thayer (2014), "US-ASEAN Defence
Nguyin Hdng Qudn, Nguyen Vdn Khu - Ca che da phdang khu vdc.., 13
Ministers Meet in Hawaii", The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/us-asean- defence-ministers-meet-m-hawaii.
11. Chulacheeb Chinwanno (2013),
"Thailand's Security Policy: Bilateralism or Multilateralism", in T. T. William and B.
Taylor (ed.). Bilateralism, Multilateralism and Asia-Pacific Security, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group.
12. Devin T.Hagerty, Michael R. Chambers, and Amy L.Freeman (2012), "Defence Diplomacy in Southeast Asia", Asian Secunty, 8:3.
13. Erik Beukel (2008), "ASEAN and ARF in East Asia's Security Architecture: The role of Norm and Power", Danish Institute for International Studies, Report 4.
14. Galiya Ibragimova, "Alter 15 Years, the SCO IS Ready to Expand", Russia Direct, http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis.
15. Kenneth N. Waltz (1979), Theory of International Politics, Waveland Press In.
16. Leonard C. Sebastian (2013), "Indonesia's Dynamic Equilibrium and ASEAN Centrality", m Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks, the National Institute for Defence Studies.
17. Mely Caballero-Anthony (2012), "Non- traditional security challenges, regional governance and the ASEAN Political Security Community", in Ralf Emmers (2012), ASEAN and the Institutionalization of East Asia, Routledge Taylor &Francis Group.
18. Mingjiang Li (2013), "New Security Challenges for China in East Asia", in Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks, The National Institute for Defence Studies.
19. Nick Bisley (2013), "Asia Security and the Prospects of Multilateralism: Australian Perspectives", ui Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in the Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gop of Security Outlooks, The
National Institute for Defence Studies, Japan.
20. Paul T.V., (2013), International Relation Theory and Regional Transformation, Cambridge University Press.
21. Prashath Parameswaran (2015), "China Reveals New Proposal to Boost Defence Ties With ASEAN", The Diplomat, http ://thediplomat.com/2015/10.
22. Ralf Emmers (2012), ASEAN and the Institutionalization of East Asia, Routledge, Taylor& Francis Group.
23. Stephen F. Burgess&Janet Beilstein (2017), "Multilateral Defence Cooperation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region: Tentative Steps toward a Regional NATO?", Contemporary Security Policy, 258 - 279.
24. Sarah Teo and Bhubhindar Singh (ed.) (2016), "The future of the ADMM/ADMM- Plus and defence diplomacy in the Asia- Pacific", S. Rajaratham School of International Studies.
25. Satu Limaye (2013), "Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific:
To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks", in Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Security Outlooks, The National Institute for Defence Studies
26. SCO (2016), 'The Tashkent Declaration of the Fifteenth Anniversaiy of the SCO", https://ccdcoe.org'sites/defaulffiles/documents.
27. Tae-Hyo Kim (2013), "Multilateral Security Cooperation in Northeast Asia:
Relevance, Limitations, and Possibilities", in Prospects of Multilateral Cooperation in Asia Pacific: To Overcome the Gap of Secunty Outlooks, the National Institute for Defence Studies.
28. Tomotaka Shoji (2013), "ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and ADMM Plus: A Japanese Perspective", NWS Journal of Defence and Security.
29. Yeganeh Torbati and Trinna Leong (2015), "ASEAN Defence Chiefs Fail to Agree on South China Sea Statement", Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article.
