KINH TE
N0 CONG VA DlJ BAO KICK BAN VE NO CONG
• N G U Y I N THANH BINH
T 6 M TAT:
Bai nghien cu'u nily giiip ifdc lifdng difdc ly le nd cdng Irong nhifng nam lie'p theo difa tren cdc kich ban kinh te difa ra. Cd ba kich ban kinh te' du'de gia djnh bao gom: (1) Kich ban kinh te cd sd; (2) Kjch ban kinh te cao; (3) Kich ban kinh te thap. Ba kjch bdn kinh te nay difa tren tinh hinh phdt trien kinh le va dda vao cac dff lieu trong qua khd' cung nhif kich ban do cac cd quan ban nganh difa ra. Md hinh ifdc lifdng VAR de dif bao cho ty le nd cong theo tifng kich bdn da du'de thUc hien.
Tiif khda: Dif bdo nd cdng, nd cdng, kich ban kinh te'.
1. D^t vS'n d^
Dd'i vdi qud'e gia dang phat trie'n, hoal dgng vay no cua qudc gia nham muc dich thu hiil ngu^n vd'n nhan rdi tif cac ca nhan cung nhu' to' chifc irong xa hdi, trong va ngoai nifdc nham dap iTng nhu cau phat trie'n kinh te'- xa hoi. Viec vay nd hinh thanh nen nghia vu tra nd, bao gom ca gd'c, lai vay va cac chi phi lien quan tdi khoan vay. Xua't phdt tuf quy iuat dd. khai niem "nd cdng" ra ddi de md td nhifng khoan nd do khu vifc cdng vay ciia cac to chifc. cd nhdn trong va ngoai nifdc nhhm trang trdi cdc khoan chi tieu, gdp phin thdc hien ehd'c nang. nhiem vu ciia minh. Do dd.
vice lang nd cdng dong nghia vdi tang ganh nang cho ngan sdch khi phdi chi tra cac khoan nd vay.
La qudc gia dang phal trien, Viet Nam can sd dung nd cdng nham giiip dau tif xay ddng cd sd ha tang tao nen tdng cho phat trien kinh te'. Vdi tiem lu'c kinh le cdn han che. viec sii" dung nd cdng thdc sd can thie't vdi Viet Nam. Dac thil sd dung nd cong ciia nddc ta chii ye'u la nd Chinh phij va Chinh phii bdo lanh. nen lu'dng lien nd
cdng huy ddng trong nifdc gan nhu' khdng ddng ke. Viec phat hanh trai phie'u chinh phii cung chda ihifc sif mang lai ty trgng idn so vdi nd chinh phii ciia Viel Nam. Do dd. viec kiem sodl nd cdng la van de quan trong dd'i vdi cac qudc gia nhu' Viet Nam.
Miic dil theo danh gia cua cdc chuyen gia, nd cdng cua nddc ta van dang d mdc an loan (56,1%
GDP). Tuy nhien, viec dp dung mii'c khdng vu'dt qud 65% GDP Clia IMFap vdi cac nu'dc dang phal trien se lam cho Viel Nam cd the bj ddng va ma't kiem soal linh hinh ihifc te. Dac biet, td'c do lang irddng kinh te' trong giai doan qua dang cd xu hddng giam so vdi nhifng nam trifdc. Dif bao lang trifdng kinh te'nam 2020 giam cdn 6,5%, trong khi dd nam 2019 td'c do tang trddng kinh te dat mdc 7,02% (World Bank. 2020). Tinh trang suy giam Iam cho cdc nguy cd ve lang ndi life hay GDP se gap khd khan trong viec tie'p tuc kie'm sodl nd cong. Ben canh dd, tham hut Ngan hang Nha nddc, dang d mdc 6% GDP. se lam cho ganh nang nd cdng trd len nghiem trpng hdn nifa.
So 9-Thang 5/2020 99
De cd nhu'ng ke hoaeh siV dung nd vay hav nd cdng mdl cdch phii hdp. tranh rdi vao tinh trang khiing hoang, ma'l kiem soat \ e nd cong, viec dif bao difa ra cdc kich ban kinh te co the xay ra de dda ra tinh hud'ng dif bdo kha thi giup Chinh phii co cac chinh sach dau tif phu hdp. nhdm dem lai hieu qud kinh te'td't nha't la dieu can thie't. Vdi nhu cau cap thie't cua viec dif bdo nd cdng tdi nam 2030.
mac du da cd nhdng dinh hddng ve miJc nd cdng nhifng chifa cd nghien cdu cu the trong viec xay difng cac kich ban ddbdo ndcdng. Vi vay. bai \iei nay thi/c hien nhdm dda ra cdc kich ban phii hdp de dif bao nd cdng cua Viel Nam ldi nam 2030.
2. Tong quan ly thuye't 2,1. Khdi nifin
Theo World Bank, nd cdng la nghTa vu nd ciia bd'n nhdm chu the, bao gdm: (I) Ndcua Chinh phii irung ddng va cdc bg, ban, nganh irung ifdng. (2) Nd ciia cdc ca'p chinh quyen dia phu'dng. (3) Nd cua ngan hang trung ifdng. (4) Nd ciia cdc to chdc dgc lap thda man mpl trong cdc dieu kien: (i)
; Chinh phii sd hdu iren 50% vd'n hodc cd dai dien chiem hdn 50% thanh vien ban giam dd'c; (ii) Viec quye't lap ngan sdch ciia cdc to chdc na> phai difdc Slf phe duyel cua Chinh phii; (iii) Chinh phii la ngu'di chiu trdch nhiem tra nd ne'u to chdc nay mat kha nang thanh loan (World Bank. 2017).
He tho'ng quan ly nd va phan tich tai chinh cua UNCTAD quy dinh: Nd cong khdng chi bao gom nd Chinh phii, nd dddc Chinh phii bdo lanh va nd Clia chinh quyen dia phu'dng. mit cdn bao gom cdc nghTa vii nd ctia ngan hang trung ddng. cdc ddn v|
I trdc thugc chinh phu, bao gom cd doanh nghiep f nha nddc d ta't ca cdc ca'p chinh quyen va mdt so'
khodn nd ngam djnh khde nhd nd Iifdng hdu. cdc khoiin bao hiem xa hgi cung dddc tinh vao khoan nd Chinh phii trong nd cong {Mai Thu Hien &
Nguygn Thi Nhif Nguyet, 2011).
IMF quy dinh: Nd cdng ciia mdt quo'c gia bao gom nd Clia khu vifc lai chinh cdng va nd cua khu
\Lfc phi tai chinh cdng. Trong do: Khu vu'c tai chinh cong bao gom: To chdc tien te (ngan hang trung Ifdng, cac to chdc tin dung nha nddc) va cac td chifc phi lien le (cac to chdc tin dung khdng cho vay ma chi cd chdc nang hd trd phdt tnen). Khu
\ifc phi lai chinh cdng bao gdm: Chinh phii. tinh, Ihanh phd'. cac to chdc chinh quyen dia phddng.
cdc doanh nghiep phi tai chinh nha nddc. Td chilc Hdp tac phdt trien kinh le (OECD) cho rang, nfl cdng la tong cac khoan nd ciia lai ca cac dinh che cdng. Khai nidm nay cho rdng. nd cua DNNN vJ ta't cd cdc i6 chdc kinh te khac cua nha nddc d^u la ndcdng (IMF. 2001).
Theo he thdng cua Viet Nam, khi Luat Quanly nd cdng cd hieu life thi hanh. nd cdng difdc phSn dinh ro rang va quy dinh: "Nd edng bao g6m; nd Chinh phii, nd dddc Chinh phii bao lanh va nd ciia chinh quyen dia phddng" (Luat Quan Iy nd cdng.
2017). Tiong do: Nd Chinh phii la khoan nd phfil sinh tif cdc khoan vay trong ndde, nifdc ngodi dtfde ky ket, phal hanh nhan danh Nha nifdc, nhan danh Chinh phii hodc cac khodn vay khde do Bd Tfii chinh ky ket, phat hanh. uy quy^n phdi hdnh Iheo quy dinh ciia phdp luat; Nd dddc Chinh phii b3o lanh la khoan nd eiia doanh nghiep, td chi?c Idl chinh. lin dung vay trong nddc, nddc ngoai difdc Chinh phu bao lanh; Nd ehinh quy^n dia phddng 1^
khoan np do Uy ban nhdn dan tinh. thanh phd'tnfc thupe trung ifdng ky ke't. phdt hanh hoae uy quyen phat hanh (Luat Qudn ly nd cdng. 2017).
2.2. Dac diem
Tin? nhd'l, nd edng dddc gdn lien vdi sd hifu Nhi nddc cung nhd quyen life ehinh iri ciia Nha ntffic.
Nhd ndde la chii lhe duy nha'l ed quyen quye'tdinh qud trinh lao lap va silf dung nd cdng. Cdc chfnh sach eung nhif cd che ve nd eong do Nhd ntfiSc quye'l dinh bdng lual phap, do cd quan quyen life cao nha't phe duyel. Viec tao lap va sd dung nd cdng cdn phu thupc vao quan diem ciia Nhd ntfdc di/a tren cac muc tieu kinh te - xa hdi quoc gia dSt ra trong tdng thdi ky (Luat Quan ly nd cong, 2017).
Thd hai, nd cdng bao gom ldi ieh chung, ldi ich xa hdi. Cung nhdcdc va'n de ve lai ehinh cdng, nd eong phan dnh quan he kinh te giifa Nha nifdc vdi cdc chli the khac nhau trong nen kinh te. huy dOng va phan phd'i nguon tai chinh quo'c gia (Luat Quan iy ndcdng, 2017). Do dd, hoat ddng tai chinh cdng phdn dnh cde quan he ldi ieh giCfa Nha nifdc vdi cac chu the khac nhau trong n6n kinh te. Trong do, ldi ich long the dddc ddt len hang dau va chi phoi cdc quan he ldi ich khac (Luat Quan ly nd cdng, 2017;
Mat Thu Hi^n & Nguydn Thi Shi' \':ii\et. 2011).
Thdba. nd cdng ed pham \i dnh udng rpng tdi kinh te-xa hdi cua quo'c gia. No cdng -dn lien vdi
100 sd9-Thang 5/2020
KINH TE
\iec thdc hien cde chdc ndng va nhiem vu cua Nha nifdc, dddc the hien tren la'l ca cac ITnh vifc tif kinh le. van hda. gido due, y te. xa hgi, quo'c phdng, an ninh (Lual Quan 1\ ndcdng. 2017). Hoal dpng vay - trd no cong cd tde dpng den thu nhap. dau tif vd lieu dung ctia hau he't cdc chii the trong nen kinh tc'. Tuy nhien, pham vi va mde dp tde ddng de'n dau cdn tuy ihudc vao chinh saeh quan ly nd cdng, bd'i eanh kinh le - xd hgi quo'c gia trong tifng thdi ky vd tuy ihugc vao lifng chii the (Lual Quan ly nd cdng. 2017).
Thdtu. Nhd ndde chju trdch nhiem tra nd trife tie'p hoae gidn tie'p (Lual Quan ly ndcdng, 2017).
Khac vdi edc khoan nd ihdng thifdng, nd cdng dddc xdc dinh la mpt khoa n nd ma Nha mfdc (bao gom cdc ed quan nha nifdc ed tham quyen) cd trdch nhiem tra nd (Lual Quan ly np eong, 2017).
Trach nhiem tra nd eua Nha nifdc difpc the hien difdi hai gdc 66: (1) tra nd trde lie'p va (2) tra nd gidn liep. Trong dd: Tra np trdc tie'p (cdc khoan nd chinh thdc) dddc hieu la cd quan nha ndde cd tham quyen se la ngurdi vay va cd quan nhd nifdc se chiu trdch nhiem Era nd khoan vay (Luat Quan ly ndcdng, 2017). Dd la cdc khoan vay eiia Chinh phu vd chinh quyen dia phifdng. Do'i vdi tra nd gidn tiep (cdc khoan np dif phdng) la irddng hdp cd quan nhd mfdc cd tham quyen bdo lanh de mgt chli the trong nddc vay nd. trong trddng hdp ben vay khdng tra ddde nd thi trach nhiem tra nd se ihude \'e cd quan bao lanh (Lual Quan ly nd edng, 2017). Hoae irddng hdp cd quan nha ndde cd tham quyen chiu trach nhiem lien ddi dd'i vdi khoan nd dd do cd dai dien chii sd hifu trong td chdc vay nd (Ludt Quan ly nd cdng, 2017).
Thd nam, nd edng dddc quan ly theo quy trinh chat che cung vdi sif tham gia ciia cd quan Nha nddc cd tham quyen. Viee nay nhdm dam bao hai muc dich: (I) dam bao kha nang trd ndcua ddn vi su'dung \d'n \ a \ \;i cao hdn nifa ia dam bao can can thanh lodn vT md va an ninh tai chinh quo'c gia; (2) de dat difde nhflng muc lieu eiia qua trinh siidiing vd'n.. viec quan ly nd cong mdt cdch chat che con cd y nghia quan trpng ve mat chinh trj giiJp dam bdo uy tin quoc gia (Lual Quan Iy nd cdng. 2017). Do dd. theo quy dinh cua phap luat.
nguyen tde quan l\' nd cdng la "Nha nu'dc quan ly ihd'ng nha't. toan dien nd cdng ti^ viec huy ddng.
phan bo. su'dung von vay den \iec tra nd"(Luat Quan ly nd cdng. 20l7t.
3. Phufdng phap va ke't qua drf bao nd cong de'n 2030
3.1. PhiifJngphdp dubdo
De dif bdo i\ le nd edng eua Viet Nam trong giai doan 2020-2025 cd xei tdi nam 2030, lac gia tie'n hanh len phifdng dn 3 kieh ban kmh tenhdm tranh cac sai so' dif bao cung nhd dd phdng cac tru'dng hdp xay ra khi nen kinh le gap cdc trifdng hpp khde nhau. Cdc kich ban kmh le bao gom: (1) phu'dng an cd sd; (2) phddng an cao: (3) phu'dng dn tha'p.
Phifcfng dn ca sd
Phu'dng an cd sd du'de \a> ddng difa tren cac ye'u to'moi trddng kinh ke on dinh va thuan ldi cho cdc nganh nghe cung nhd hoal ddng qudn iy ngan sach thuan ldi. Ddng thdi. cdc hoal dgng hdi nhap kmh te phat trien theo dung ke hoaeh da de ra.
Nen kinh te co kha nang hu\ dpng cdc nguon life d mdc trung binh. lien tuc. on dinh va ben vffng cho ca giai doan tdi nam 2025 vd dinh hu'dng tdi ndm 2030, nhd thifc hien tifdng dd'i td't cdc eai cdeh ve the che. chinh sach va hanh ehinh. Cud'i ciing la, va'n de ve he Ihd'ng ha lang ky thual dddc phdt trien d mde dp vifa phai, phu hdp vdi kha nang lich liiy cdn han che eua nen kinh te
Dd'i vdi phddng dn cd sd. cdc bien dau vdo cho dif bao bao gom: Tang trifdng kinh te cao; lam phat vda phdi: ty gia dong npi dia lang.
Phifang dn cao
Kich ban phu'dng dn cao du'a ra cdc dnh hudng ve hiep dinh thu'dng mai nhif CPTPP cung nhif edc hiep dinh thddng mai khde khi di vao thifc thi hieu qua. Nen kinh te'cd kha nang huy dpng cac nguon life d mu'c cao. lien tuc, d'n dinh va ben vffng cho ca giai doan tdi nam 2025 va dinh hu'dng tdi nam 2030. nhd thu'c hien lot cde eai each ve the che, chinh saeh va hdnh chinh. Ben eanh do, vdi kich ban phifdng dn cao dda ra gia dinh ve viec thu - chi ngan sdch ddde thifc hien hieu qud, giiip tan dung td't nguon life cua da't nifdc va trdnh lang phi trong cdng tde chi ngan saeh. Kich ban phudng an cao cung dda ra tinh hud'ng cho cac doanh nghiep trong va ngoai nifde hoat ddng td't. edc ke boach phat trien doanh nghiep dat difdc ngoai dd kie'n; Chinh phu hd trd lot cho edc doanh nghiep hoat ddng.
So 9 - T h a n g 5/2020 101
Ddi vdi kich ban phifdng dn cao, cac bien dau vaode' ddbdoiy le ndcdng bao gom: Tang tru'dng kinh te vffdl ke hoaeh; lam phat giam; ty gid ddng npi dia lang.
PhUifng dn ihd'p
Kich ban tdng trddng tha'p dif kie'n xay ra trong edc dieu kien: Mdi tnfdng trong mfdc kem on djnh (Ihl trifdng, ed the xay ra khiing hoang kinh le):
Nen kinh te chi cd kha nang huy ddng cac nguon life d mdc tha'p do nhffng tri tre trong thffc hien cac cai edch ve the che, chinh sdch va hanh chinh. Kha nang gia nhap cdc khdi thffdng mai ldn khdng trien khai; cdc rdi ro ve thien tai. dich benh cd the xay ra mpl edch ba't thddng, gay ton hai ldn tdi nen kmh te.
Ddi vdi dff bdo ty le nd cdng theo phffdng dn Ihap, cdc bie'n dau vao de dif bdo ty le nd cdng bao gom: Tang trffdng kinh te sul giam; lam phdt lang:
ly gid dong npi dia giam manh.
Vdi cae kieh ban dffa ra. lac gia sff dung md hinh VAR (Vector autoregression) de ffdc Iffpng.
dff bdo bie'n dau ra la ly le nd cdng dffa tren cac bien dau vao la cac chi so' md la ve ihj irffdng vi md nen kmh le'.
3.2. Kit qud dif bdo
Vdi cdc kich ban dffa ra. ke't qua dif bao cho tha'y, ly le nd cdng theo phu'dng an kich ban ed sd (nen kinh te phat trien on dinh) cd ty le nd cong vao nam 2020 la 53.44% GDP; ty le nd cong ldi mim 2025 la 58,77% GDP vd ldi nam 2030 ty Ie nd cdng la 63.98%. Dong thdi, vdi kich ban phffdng an cao chi ra nam 2030, ty le np cdng se chi dat 61.69% GDP; vdi phifdng dn kich ban tha'p khi nen kinh te'suy thoai, ly le nd cdng de'n ndm 2030 dat mdc 65,63% GDP. (Bang 1)
4. Ke't luan va khuye'n nghi
Qua phffdng phap dff bdo difa tren cac kich ban kinh te va ffdc Iffdng md hinh VAR, ke't qua dif bao vdi ca ba kich ban eho tha'y mffc chenh lech giifa ede kich ban ve ty le nd cdng la khoang 2%. Trong dd, trong tru'dng hdp xa'u nhii't thi ty le nd cdng se d mdc 65.63%. Day dffpc coi la mffc nd cong nam trong pham vi khdng an loan nhif each dffa ra cua cac to chdc qudc te (nhff IMF hay Worldbank). Ke't qua na> cho thd'y. trong trffdng hpp kinh te suy ihoai. ddng (VND) ma't gia. thi mdc nd edng tdi nam 2030 --e vffdt mdc an todn ma cdc to chdc dffa
Bang 1. Dti bdo ty le nd cong theo cdc phi/dng dn
I Ty I§^ndc6ng ' "Iy 1$ n? cong Tyl$ni3c6r^
' PhUftigan ' PhiWngan I Phuong an ! I cdsd ' cao I thap I 2020
2021 2022 2023 2024 2026 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
53.44 54.52 55 61 56 71 57.77 68.79 59.79 60.80 6184 62.91 63.98
53.35 54.19 55,02 55,85 56.69 57.62 58.35 59.19 60.02 60.85 6169
54.64 55.80 ~ 56.95 58.10 59.19 J 60.24 ,jj 61.27 al
- T
"" --
62 32 63.39 64.50 65.63
ra. Tuy nhien, cd the tha'y, t^ \6 chenh lech vdt mffc an loan chi la 0.63% nen chi can sff dieu chinh nhd ve chinh sdch hdp ly thi cd the ffng phd vdi tJ le nd edng vao ndm 2030. Dong thdi. vdi kich bdn kinh te'edsd vd kjch bdn kinh te'cao chira mdc n^
cdng se dffdc duy tri d mffc 63% ne'u khdng cd si/
thay ddi ddng ke ve sff phdi trien eua n4n kinh It.
Trong irffdng hdp thuan idi, ly le nd edng vdo ndm 2030 ed the dmffc 61%.
Tff ket qua nghien cffu nay, tic gia cung dffa ra mgl so' khuye'n nghi ve chinh sach nham ffng phd vdi tru'dng hdp xa'u cd the xdy ra khi ty le nd cdng vffdt ngffdng 65%. Co the tha'y, viec kiem sodtnt?
cdng cua Viet Nam trong nhffng ndm gan daycd ke't qua td't. Tuy nhien, viec vay nd trong cac nam tdi se cdn tang len khi ma cdc dif an phdt trien cd sd ha tang dang trien khai dang dd vd thieu von, nhtf: dddng sat dd Ihj Ha Ngi, sdn bay Long Thanh,,., Do anh hifdng ciia dai dich Covid-19 nen cdc dff dn tren loan quo'c dang cung bj dnh htfdng ve lien dp. ViSc keo dai tie'n dd se lam eho cdcchi phi tang thdm dan tdi viec ihieu von hodc ddi von rat d6 xay ra. Do vay. viec \ay M'/O la dieu can difdc tinh todn tnfde de hodn ih]^;n n'l't cdc dff dn edn dang dd do thie'u vd'n •
KINH TE
TAI L I P U T H A M K H A O :
I. IMF. (2001). Guidelines for Public Debt Management. litlps://wM-w.imf.org/external/np/mae/pdehi/
2000/eng/inde.x.him
2.LualQuan\\ ncJ cong. (20]7).hltp.s://iliinienpliapluat.udvan-ban/iai-chinh-nlia-nuoe/Luat-Qiian-lv-iio-co,ig- 337l65.a\px
.1. Mai Thu Hlln, Nguyin Thi Nhtf Nguyet. (2011). Tinb hmh ng cong vd qudn ly ng cdng d Viet Nam. Sbv.
4. World Bank. (2017). Chinb sdch Tdi khda hudng tdi Ben vUng. Hieu qud vd Cong bdng. 108.
5. World Bank. (2020). Tong quan v^- Viet Nam [Text/HTML]. World Bank. htlps://ww^v.worldbank.org/vi/eoun- try/vietnam/over\'iew.
Ngay nh^n bai: 1/4/2020
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va s^a chffa: 11/4/2020 Ngay chap nh§n ddng bai: 21/4/2020
Tiwng tin lac gid:
TS. NGUYEN THANH BINH
Trirdng Cao dang Thrfofng mai va Du ljch Ha Npi
VIETNAM'S PUBLIC DEBT:
OUTLOOK AND FORECAST
• Ph.D NGUYEN THANH BINH Hanoi College of Commerce and Tourism
ABSTRACT:
This smdy is to find out how future economic situations lead lo the change in Vietnam's public debt by esdmating the public debt ratio of Vietnam in the coming years based on given economic scenarios. There are three economic scenarios which are built on economic data in the past and economic scenarioes built by agencies under the Government of Vietnam, namely (I) Basic economic growth scenario; (2) Higher economic growth scenario; and (3) Lower economic growth scenario. A VAR estimadon model to forecast the public debt rado was implemented under each scenario. The study's results show that the optimal public debt ratios by 2030 under the higher economic growth scenario, the basic economic growth scenario and the lower economic growdi scenario are 61.69%, 63.98% and 65.6%. respectively with the fluctuation level of public debt of 2% in each economic growth scenario. It can be seen that even in the worst economic growth scenario for Vietnam is 65.63%, 0.63% higher than the warning public debt ratio of 65%, hence controlling public debt measures for the lower economic growth scenario can be implemented.
Keywords: Public debt forecast, public debt, economic scenarios.
So 9 - T h a n g 5/2020 103
