:iii. ' . i . i .
OUAIN HE KIINH TE THl/dNG MAI VIET NAM HOA KY
TS. Nguyin Van Binh Bo Cong thuong
I. Quan he thifdng mai: Nhufng danh gia c h u n g
Hien nay Viet Nam l i dd'i t i c budn b i n ldn thQ 38 ciia Hoa Ky (tinh gdp ca xua't va nhap khau). Neu chi tinh
rieng ve xua't kha'u, Viet Nam dQng vao hang cao hdn (thQ 32). Bang sd lieu sau day cho tha'y dieu dd va ta dang xua't sieu vao thi trQdng n i y 10 ty USD/nam.
Doi tac b u o n ban ciia Hoa Ky n a m 2008 top 40
Don vi: trieu USD Stt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
N u d e Canada Trung quo'c Mexico Nhat Ban DQc Anh Han quo'c Phap Arab Saudi Venezuela Dai Loan Brazil Ha Lan Italia An Do Bi Nigeria Malaysia
Nhap k h a u 334.840 337.504 216.328 139.112 95.828 58.419 46.687 43.372 54.283 50.281 36.204 30.061 21.103 36.015 25.866 17.379 38.236 30.633
Xua't k h a u 222.424
67.166 131.507 61.435 50.151 49.061 33.074 26.748 11.846 11.829 23.628 29.027 37.076 13.896 17.340 25.769 3.991 11.495
Can c a n 112.415 270.338 84.821 77.677 45.677 9.357 13.613 16.624 42.437 38.452 12.576 1.033 15.974 22.119 8.526 8.390 34.246 19.139
Stt 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Nude Singapore Ireland Thuy Sy Nga Israel Thai Lan Australia Iraq Colombia Tay Ban Nha Hong Kong Indonesia Angola Algeria Chile Thuy Dien Philippines Nam Phi UAE Viet Nam Thd Nhi Ky Argentina
Nhap khau 15.719 31.298 17.716 26.721 22.264 23.488 10.535 21.723 13.059 10.972 6.496 15.660 18.763 19.351 8.182 12.450 8.700 9.959 1.268 12.611 4.641 5.680
Xuat khau 25.656
8.080 20.245 8.936 10.238 8.400 20.948 2.079 10.568 11.897 15.881 5.719 2.094 1.228 11.367 4.657 7.975 6.186 14.620 2.673 10.277 6.720
Can can 9.937 23.218 2.529 17.785 12.026 15.088 10.413 19.644 2.491 925 9.385 9.940 16.670 18.123 3.184 7.793 726 3.772 13.353 9.938 5.636 1.040 Nguon: USITC
Nam 2008 l i mdt nam day khd khan dd'i vdi xua't khau ctia Viet Nam ndi chung v i hang xuat khau di Hoa Ky ndi rieng. Tuy nhien, vdi nhQng nd liic ciia c i nQdc v i ctia tQng nganh ndi rieng, xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang Hoa Ky van tang trQdng kha va vQa van dat chi tieu xuat khau ciia nam. Udc tinh n i m 2008, xuat khau h i n g Viet Nam sang Hoa Ky dat k h o i n g 12,3 ty
USD (theo so' lieu ciia H i i quan Viet Nam), vQa dung chi tieu 21,4% so vdi n i m 2007 (nam 2007 la 29%).
Nhap k h i u dat 2,7 ty, tang 56,5% so vdi nam 2007 (73% nam 2007) dUa tdng kim ngach xuat nhap khau giQa Viet Nam v i Hoa Ky den 14,9 ty USD. Thang dQ thQdng mai vdi Hoa Ky l i 9,6 ty USD, chiem 64% tdng kim ngach hai chieu (nam 2007 la 71%, nam 2006 la 77%).
So' lieu xua't nhap k h i u giiJa Viet N a m va Hoa Ky n a m 2008 {so lieu Udc tinh)
Muc
XK NK XNK
Udc tinh ThQc
h i e n 2008 12.261
2.678 14.939
So vdi nam 2007 ThQc hien
nam 2007 (tr.USD)
10.097 1.711 11.808
So c h e n h lech Trieu
USD 2.164,00
967,32 3.131,32
% t a n g giam
21,4 56,5 26,5
So vdi ke h o a c h XK 2008 Ke h o a c h
n a m 2008 (tr.USD)
12.300
So' c h e n h lech Trieu
U S D -39
% t a n g g i a m
0
Nguon: Hdi quan 'Viet Nam
Tinh rieng den het t h i n g 10, tdng kim ngach thUdng mai hai chieu Viet Nam - Hoa Ky nam 2008 la 12,3 ty USD (tang 28,5% so vdi cung ky nam trUdc). Trong dd, hang hda ciia Viet
Nam xuat sang Hoa Ky dat tdng cdng 10 ty USD, tang 21% so vdi cung ky.
Nhap khau tQ Hoa Ky 2,3 ty USD (tang 77,4% so vdi cung ky), thang dQ thQdng mai xap xi 7,8 ty USD.
Tang trifcfng xuat nhap khau giijfa Viet N a m va Hoa Ky qua cac t h i n g ciia nam 2008
1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
8 0 0 6 0 0
4 0 0
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X K N I K
Loai trQ nhQng bien ddng ciia 2 thang diu nam, do i n h hUdng manh ciia yeu td' mua vu va cic dip le, 'nhin chung, kim ngach xuat k h i u van tang.
Tuy nhien, bat dau tQ dau Quy III, xuat hien da'u hieu kim ngach xuat khau tang chim v i tham chi suy giam, do khting hoing kinh te b i t dau cd tic dpng den hang xua't khau ciia Viet Nam, cic ddn hang cho thdi diem cud'i nim khdng deu v i thUa thdt. Dti kien tic ddng niy se thQc sQ ro net d dau va
giQa nam 2009 do tac ddng ciia khiing hoing kinh te Hoa Ky va toan ciu.
Xuat khau
Cic mat hang xuat khau chti IQC ciia ta sang Hoa Ky v i n la det may (5,1 ty- USD), dd gd (1,1 ty USD),'giiy dep (1 ty USD) va hing thuy s i n (788 trieu USD), chiem 65,4% tdng iQdng xuat khau.
DQdi day la sd lieu Qdc tinh kim ngach ctia cac mat hang xuat k h i u Viet Nam sang Hoa Ky trong n i m 2008 v i chenh lech so vdi nam 2007.
Dan vi: Trieu USD iA •< M u c ••: ,
Det may Do go Giay dep Thuy san
Hang dien tii, linh kien Hat dieu
Ca phe Day cap dien
Tdng XK
U6c tinh 2008
5.113 1.079 1.039 788 317 285 221 100 12.261
So v6i nam 2007 2007
4.465 949 885 729 273 228 212 83 10.097
Chenh lech 648,2 130 154,2 59 44,1 57 9 17,6 2,164
% t a n g giam 14,52 13,70 17,42 8.09 16.15 25.00 4.25 21.20 21,40 Nguon: Hdi quan Vwt Nam
A. Nhom hang cong nghiep Det may
Udc tinh kim ngach xuat khau det may ca nam 2008 dat 5,1 ty USD, tang 14,5% vdi nam 2007, day la mQc tang trQdng thap hdn rat nhieu so vdi nam 2007 li 46%.
Nguyen nhan chii yeu l i do nhu cau tieu dung giim manh cung nhQ khd khan ve mat tin dung ciia cac n h i nhap khiu d Hoa Ky nen cac hpp ddng cho mua Thu, Ddng v i mua Giing sinh bi giam ddng ke.
Tuy nhien, trong bd'i canh khd khan ctia Hoa Ky v i the gidi niy, neu so vdi cic nUdc xua't khau det may chii ye'u khac vao Hoa Ky thi day la nd liic ldn ctia nganh det may Viet Nam, bdi vi trong khi h i u het cac nUdc nay deu giim c i doanh so' va thi p h i n thi Viet Nam van lien tuc t i n g (nhap khau mat h i n g nay cua Hoa Ky 10 thang dau nam giim -3% so vdi cQng ky nam 2007). Theo sd' lieu ciia Uy ban ThQdng mai Hoa Ky (USITC), neu nhQ nhQng t h i n g cud'i nam 2007, dau nam 2008, xuat khau det may Viet Nam dQng thQ 4
d thi trQdng Hoa Ky, thi sang thang 7 Viet Nam vQpt An Dp dQng thQ 3, thang thQ 8 va thang 9 vQpt Mexico de dQng thQ 2. (Tuy vay, tinh ci 10 t h i n g 2008 thi Viet Nam v i n la nUdc cd thi phan dQng thQ 4 d Hoa Ky ve xuat khau hang det may).
Ngoai ra, viec Viet Nam tranh thu tang dQpc thi phan trong khi Trung Qud'c giim thi p h i n (do ddng Nhan dan te tang nhanh, chi phi lao ddng tang va qui che ve mdi trQdng dd'i vdi nginh det may bi that chat) cung la mdt nguyen n h i n ding ke de giii thi'ch viec tang trQdng nay.
Mac du vay, ben canh nhQng khd khan ve nhu ciu nhap k h i u d Hoa Ky, van de lam phat, nguyen lieu dau vao, lao ddng d trong nUdc thi xuat khau det may sang Hoa Ky van gap nhQng trd ngai ve chinh sach ctia Hoa Ky, dac biet la ChuOng trinh gidm sdt hdng det may Viet Nam nhap khau vio Hoa Ky.
Bat diu tQ dau nam 2007, chQdng trinh niy da anh hQdng khdng nhd den kha nang sin xuat va xua't khiu hang det may ctia Viet Nam sang Hoa Ky,
han che viec dau tQ md rdng phat trien s i n xuat may mac tai Viet Nam, gay t i m ly lo ngai cho cic n h i nhap khau - bin le My khi dat hang tai Viet Nam.
Tuy nhien, mdi day, Hoa Ky d i cdng bd vao ngay 21 thang 11 vQa qua ket qua ra soat ddt ba va cung la ddt
ra soit cud'i cung ciia chQdng trinh niy, r i n g Viet Nam khdng b i n p h i gii h i n g det may tai Hoa Ky va ChQdng trinh se cha'm dQt vad ngay 20 thang 1 nam 2009 khi Chi'nh quyen Td'ng thd'ng Bush ket thuc va it cd kha nang gia han them.
Stt 11 2 33 44 55 66 77 88 89 110
B a n g s o l i e u n h a p k h a u h a n g
Qudc gia Trung Quoc Mexico An Do Viet Nam Indonesia Bangladesh Pakistan Honduras Cambodia Canada Tdng Khac
Tdng NK cua Hoa Ky
TlO/2007 26.798.539
5.356.632 4.656.894 3.648.723
3.628.296 2.675.175 2.658.173 2.172.501 2.059.578 1.967.950 55.622.460 28.705.652 84328111
d e t m a y c i i a
TlO/2008 26.902.468
4.747.542 4.640.854 4.471.258
3.688.713 2.971.163 2.569.766 2.262.194 2.057.438 1.925.190 56.236.581 25.867.540 84.328.111
H o a K y n a m 2 0 0 8 Dem ui: Nghin USD C h e n h lech
Gia tri 103.929 -609.090 -16.040 822.535
60.417 295.988 -88.407 89.693 -2.140 -42.760 614.121 -2.838.112 82.104.123
% 0 -11 0 23 2 11 -3 4 0 -2 1 -10 - 2.223.988 Nguon: USITC.
Gidy dep
Do nhu ciu tieu dung ctia Hoa Ky bi that chat, dac biet giim dd'i vdi nhung hpp ddng cd ddn gia cao, ke tQ diu quy III, da cd dau hieu giim sut trong kim ngach. Td'ng kim ngach xua't khau 10 thang d i u nam dat 850 trieu USD, tang 15,3% so vdi cung ky nam ngoai. Udc tinh c i nam 2008 dat 1,04 ty USD, tang 17,42% so vdi nam 2007. MQc tang trQdng, nay cd cham hdn so vdi ci nam 2007 (22,2%), nhUng van la mQc tang trQdng k h i . Day cung la cd' gang ciia Viet Nam trong bdi c i n h nhu cau tieu dung mat hang nay ciia Hoa Ky giam gin 2%.
Nganh cdng nghiep giay dep ctia Hoa Ky p h i n nhieu da chuyen dich ra khdi nQdc nay, s i n xuat ndi dia chi cdn chiem chQa tdi 2% dung iQpng thi trQdng va chi tap trung vio 20 loai s i n pham cu the. Ben canh dd, Qud'c hdi Hoa Ky cdn dang xem xet dQ l u i t
"Giiy dep hdp tui tien" nham loai bd mQc thue nhap khau cao dd'i vdi giiy dep gii tQ thap tdi trung binh. Do dd, giiy dep xua't khau ctia Viet Nam (cung nhQ cua cac nQdc khac) it chiu nguy cd khdi kien bdi n g i n h cdng nghiep trong nQdc ctia Hoa Ky.
So TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Quoc gia Trung Qud'e Italia Viet Nam Brazil Indonesia Thailand Mexico Tay Ban Nha An Do Dai Loan Tdng Khae Tdng NK My
Nam 2007 14.089.664 1.200.391 1.031.623
757.868 382.598 256.835 247.678 209.916 163.588 120.639 18.460.802 809.519 19,270,321
10'V2007 12.097.873
994.687 878.612
655.943 330.917 218.587 208.078 177.236 137.201 101.194 15.800.328 691.365 16.491.693
Dc/n vi: Nghin USD 10"'/2008
12.411.473 970.207 1.007.021
449.274 341.714 210.132 211.608 148.967 160.068 141.570 16.052.035 622.920 16.674.954
Chenh lech (%) *
2,60 -2,50 14,60 -31,50
3,30 -3,90 1,70 -16,00 16,70 39,90 1,60 -9,90 1.1 B. Nhom hang nong nghiep
Udc 12 t h i n g nam 2008, tang trUdng xuat khau ndng s i n dat 18%- 20% so vdi cung ky nam ngoai; thuy hai s i n tang 8%-10%, dat khoing 800 trieu USD; dd gd tang 13%-14% dat khoing tren 1 ty USD.
* Nhan dinh chung
NhQng t h i n g cud'i n i m , tinh hinh xuat khau gap nhieu khd khan hdn do canh tranh xuat khau cao, he thd'ng ngan hang khiing hoing nen lim giam k h i nang thanh khoin ciia cac doanh nghiep dd'i vdi cac ddn h i n g tQ Viet Nam. Viec that chat tin dung cua cic nQdc da khien cho cic nha nhap khau phai yeu ciu cho doanh nghiep Viet Nam t r i cham sau khi ban hang.
Dieu niy dan den viec xuat khau gap khd khan va hi dinh tre.
Do nhu ciu thi trUdng giim, cd nhQng ddn hang nha nhap khau da ky ket nhQng dd'i t i c da cat, khdng tiep tuc mua khien p h i n ldn cic doanh nghiep p h i i cat giim cdng sua't che bien, nhan iQc.
* Doi vdi nhom hang cu the Nhom hdng nong sdn:
Nhin chung, nhQng t h i n g dau nam va den quy 11/2008, h i u het cac mat hang ndng s i n kim ngach deu tang chii yeu do gii xuat k h i u tang; sd' lupng mdt sd' mat hang tang nhU che, hat tieu... NhQng thdng cud'i nam, gii xuat khau mdt so' mat-hang nhU ci phe, cao su giam manh (binh quan t h i n g 11 gii ci phe d mQc 1.700 USD/tin giam tdi 2% so vdi cung ky nam 2007; gia cao su giim tdi 12% so vdi cung ky nam ngodi do ye'u to' gia d i u the gidi giam).
Kim ngach Qdc tinh ca nam chi t i n g khoang 18% vdi viec duy tri mQc tang trQdng ctia mdt sd' mat hang nhQ hat dieu (dti kien tang khoing 25%), che, hat tieu. Theo sd' lieu Hii quan Hoa Ky, mac du nhu ciu nhap khiu ndi chung ctia Hoa Ky giam, nhUng nhap khau mpt so' mat hang ndng s i n van duy tri mQc tang cao nhQ ca phe, che va cic s i n pham cit l i t khac tang 18% trong 10 t h i n g diu nam.
Nhom hdng thuy hdi sdn:
Nhu ciu nhap khau hang thuy h i i s i n ciia thi trQdng Hoa Ky bie'n ddng trong nam, dan den kim ngach xuat khau cung bien ddng that thQdng.
Tdm ddng lanh v i c i tra, ba sa van la nhQng mat h i n g xua't khau chii iQc cua Viet Nam sang Hoa Ky.
Trong nhQng thang dau nam, nhu cau nhap k h i u ctia Hoa Ky dd'i vdi c i va cac thiiy h i i s i n khac giim, tQ giQa nam va nhQng t h i n g cud'i nam kim ngach nhap khau cd xu hudng tang nen kim ngach nhap k h i u 10 t h i n g ciia Hoa Ky (dd'i vdi c i va cac thiiy s i n khic) tang 12%.
Tuy nhien, tdm ddng lanh cd nhieu bien ddng, xu hudng tieu dung giam.
Cac doanh nghiep che bien thiiy san cho rang sQc tieu thu d mdt sd thi trQdng nhQ My, Nga, Trung qud'c khdng tang, ddn h i n g khdng ldn, sd' lUdng giim. Nen kinh te tang trQdng cham chap da anh hQdng trQc tiep tdi nganh cdng nghiep dich vu (nha hang), mdt kenh tieu thti tdm chii yeu d My. Cdc doanh nghiep xua't khau trong nUdc thieu vd'n, gii cic loai vat tu tang, nguyen lieu phuc vu cho xuat khau thuy s i n deu tang nen ngUdi nudi bi thua Id, dan den tam ngQng nudi ci chuyen sang trdng lua hoac i p dung md hinh lua - ci ket hdp thay lua - tdm. Tieu thii tdrq giam vi day ludn la mpt mat h i n g xa xi.
Ivim ngach cic mat hang xuat khau thiiy s i n chii yeu sang Hoa Ky Qdc tinh 12 thang va so vdi cung ky 2007 nhQ sau:
Tom dong Ignh dat 450,2 trieu USD do nhu ciu thi trQdng Hoa Ky giam manh ke tQ t h i n g 6/2008. Hien nay, gia tdm qud'c te giam, tdm su cua Viet Nam v i n bi canh tranh ve gii vdi tdm chan trang ctia mdt so' nUdc. Viet Nam chUa dap Qng dQdc nhu ciu ctia
thi trQdng dd'i vdi tdm the chan t r i n g , trong khi Thai Lan v i Trung qud'c d i p Qng nhu ciu thi trQdng.
Cd tra, cd basa dat 80 trieu USD do ngudn cung trong nQdc dn dinh, Viet Nam v i n chiem vi tri trong top 5 nQdc xuat khau ca tra v i basa sang Hoa Ky.
Mat h i n g c i tra va c i ba sa van tdn tai rao can ldn l i thue chdng ban p h i gii cao.
Doi vdi mat hdng do go:
Do nhu cau thi trQdng Hoa Ky giim ding ke (10 t h i n g giim 10%), xu hQdng giim d i n tQ d i u nam. Canh tranh xuat k h i u cao nen kim ngach ca nam Qdc tinh duy tri d mQc khoing 13% - 14%. Theo sdlieu H i i quan Hoa Ky, mdt so' nQdc duy tri mQc tang gdm Trung qud'c (22%), Indonesia (9%), Viet Nam, Mexico (14%)), Dii Loan (23%); cic nQdc k h i c giim ddng ke nhQ Canada (-6%), Brazil (-11%). Viet Nam dQng thQ tQ trong so' cic nQdc xuat k h i u dd gd ndi that sang Hoa Ky.
SQc tieu thu ciia ngQdi d i n Hoa Ky cung giam dd'i vdi mat hang nay lam cho nha phan phd'i bi Q dpng tdn kho hang hoa, nha nhap khau budc p h i i giam quy md nhap k h i u , ddng thdi gay sQc ep cho cic nha xua't khau giim gii h i n g hoac tim ngudn hang d cac nQdc cd gii re hdn nen canh tranh xua't khau tang cad. Ddng thdi, cic doanh nghiep gap khd khan do Hoa Ky mdi ban hanh Dao luat Ndng nghiep, Dao l u i t An toan san pham.
Kinh te Hoa Ky suy thodi va khiing hoang tai chi'nh tac dpng den xua't khau ciia Viet Nam, cd chieu hQdng giim nhQng t h i n g cud'i nam do nhu ciu tieu dung cua ngQdi dan Hoa Ky giam; mpt sd' chinh sich v i quy dinh mdi ciia Hoa Ky cung anh hQdng de'n xua't khau ciia Viet Nam va de dpa k h i nang xua't khau, nhat l i trong tinh hinh khd khan hien nay.
Luat Ndng nghiep dQdc Qud'c hdi Hoa Ky thdng qua (thdng 2/2008) ge cd hieu lUc dp dung thang 12/2008, quy dinh rd viec khai bao ngudn gd'c xuat xQ nguyen lieu gd va thQc vat;
cac che tai dd'i vdi viec x u i t khau gd t r i i phep. Ddy se l i mdt thich thQc dd'i vdi xua't khau gd v i s i n pham gd cua Viet Nam trong viec khai bio ro ngudn gd'c xuat xQ hang hda, ngudn cung Qng nguyen lieu gd va cac s i n pham khac cd ngudn gd'c tQ thQc vat.
Bd Ndng nghiep Hoa Ky dang dti kien dQa ra quy dinh mdi thQc thi Luat Ndng nghiep 2008 (Farmbill 2008) theo dd tat ca cic loai thudc chiing c i da trdn catfish nhap tQ nQdc ngoai phii cd chQng nhan ve ky thuat
che bien v i quy trinh va che dp kiem tra chat iQdng p h i i tQdng dQdng tieu chuan hien hanh ctia My ma Bd Ndng nghiep dang dp dting. Nhu vay, se la rao cin r i t ldn dd'i vdi xuat khau mat hang nay ciia Viet Nam sang Hoa Ky do k h i nang d i p Qng yeu cau la rat khd khan.
3. Nhap khau
Tdng nhap khau 10 thang d i u nam dat gan 1,3 ty USD, to'c dp tang tuy tha'p hdn tdi mdt niia tdc dp tang nhap khau nam trUdc nhUng van dat mQc kha la 77,4%. Mpt so' mat hang nhap khau tang manh nhQ mat hang d td cic loai tang 190,1%, thQc an gia sue tang 169%, bdng cic loai tang 109%.
Mot so' mat hang nhap khau Viet Nam tii Hoa Ky 10 t h i n g 2008
Muc May moc thiet bi
to eac loai Bong cac loai
Chat deo nguyen lieu ThQc an gia sue
Nguyen phu lieu det may, da giay May tinh, dien tii & linh kien Go va san pham go
Tong nhap khau
10th/
2008 339,9 233,8 147,9 145,7 128,1 120,8 107,5 102,2 2,263,3
So vdi Cling ky nam trQdc ThQc hien
lOT/2007 264,3
80,6 70,5 94,8 47,6 96,1 75,1 76,6 1,276,2
So c h e n h lech
75,6 153,2 77,4 50,9 80,5 24,7 32.4 25,6 986,1
% tang giam
28,6 190,1 109,8 53,7 169,1 25,7 43,1 33,4 77,4 Nguon: Hdi quan Viet Nam
* Danh gia khd khan va thuan lOi L Thudn lgi
Khd ndng tdng thi phdn: Nhieu nUdc vd'n la ngudn cung cap ldn cho Hoa Ky dang gap khd khan, dac biet li Trung Qudc vdi nhQng van de ve chat iQdng s i n pham va gia ca, nhieu mat hang da va dang bi cao bupc l i bin pha gia hoac trd cap t r i i quy dinh. Rat nhieu nha nhap khau My
da quyet dinh chuyen hUdng sang tim kie'm ngudn cung cap mdi tQ Viet Nam vdi hy vpng dat hieu q u i cao va dn dinh lau dai.
Hogt dgng xuc tie'n thUOng mgi cua Viet Nam mdy ndm qua dang phdt huy tdc dung: Du kie'n 2009 vdi 19 hoat ddng trong chQdng trinh Xuc tien thUdng mai qudc gia, gap ddi so vdi nam 2008, nhieu doanh nghiep Viet
Nam se cd dieu kien trQc tie'p tiep xuc vdi thi trQdng Hda Ky. Ngoai chQdng trinh Xuc tien thQdng mai qud'c gia, ngay cang cd nhieu doanh nghiep tQ td chQc di nghien cQu, k h i o s i t thi trQdng, tim kiem ban h i n g tai cic cupc hot chd, trien lam thQdng mai.
Ldi sudt ngdn hdng vd ty gid dang bien dpng theo chieu hQdng thuan ldi che doanh nghiep xuat khau trong nhQng thang cud'i nam va sang nam 2009.
Theo dii bao, gid nguyen lieu sdn xudt hdng xudt khdu vd gid ddu tho cd xu hudng giim trong ndm tdi cung cd mat thuan ldi giup giam gii thanh sin pham x u i t k h i u ciia Viet Nam.
0 t i m vi md, cdc cugc dot thogi trong linh vUc kinh tethuang mgi nhu Hiep dinh khung ve thQdng mai d i u tu (TIFA); viec de nghi My d i n h che dp GSP cho Viet Nam, nhdm cdng t i c hdn hdp ve cdng nhan Viet Nam la nen kinh te thi trQdng... dang dQdc hai ben tich ciic trie'n khai tao' mdi trQdng kinh doanh t h u i n ldi cho doanh nghiep.
2. Kho khdn
Khiing hodng kinh te tdi chinh hien nay tai Hoa Ky va the gidi tdc ddng nang ne len toan linh viic: nhu ciu tieu dung sut giim, chi'nh sdch that chat tin dung cua Chinh phti Hoa Ky cung nhu kha nang tai chinh giim ctia nha nhap k h i u Hoa Ky chae chin se tac ddng manh de'n xuat khau ciia Viet Nam.
Ca che gidm sdt hdng det may: Tuy Chinh quyen Bush da cam ket ke ca bang van ban gtii Bp trQdng Cdng thQdng, sau khi tie'n hanh r i soit ddt cudi cung se cdng bd cham dQt chQdng trinh giam sat. Tuy nhien, Chi'nh quyen nay cung khdng bao d i m r i n g sau khi chuyen giao quyen luc (20/1/2009) Chi'nh quyen mdi se i p
dat hoac khdng i p dat trd lai cd che nay dd'i vdi Viet Nam trong khi dang bat dau tie'n h i n h mpt- chQdng trinh tQdng tQ dd'i vdi Trung Qud'c vdi ly do nQdc nay chQa p h i i Id mdt nQdc cd nen kinh te thi trQdng.
Ludt mdi ve an todn sdn phdm nhgp khdu ctia Uy ban An toan san pham tieu dung Hoa Ky (CPSC), theo dd, ta't ca cac s i n pham det may xua't khau (va mdt so' s i n phdm dd chdi tre em bang nhiia, gd) vio thi trQdng My se phai tuan thii theo nhQng quy dinh mdi chat che v i k b i t khe hdn rat nhieu, luat nay chi'nh thQc cd hieu iQc tQ t h i n g 2/2009.
Thue chdng bdn phd gid, chdng trg cdp ddi vdi cd tra, ba sa va tdm nhap khau tQ Viet Nam v i n tie'p tuc hi ap dat.
Ludt nong nghiep mdi (Farm Bill) ctia Hoa Ky ap dung tQ 2009 thiic chat la rao c i n ky thuat k h i ldn dd'i vdi hang nhap khau tQ nQdc ngoii ndi chung v i die biet dd'i vdi nhieu nhdm hang xua't khau chinh ciia Viet Nam nhQ dd gd, npi that, det may, thuy s i n ke c i hang thii cdng my nghe...
Khi D i n g Dan chii len n i m quyen tai Hoa Ky, tU tudng bdo hg s i n xuat trong nudc trong gidi chi'nh tri td ra dang t h i n g the cd the tdc ddng tdi viec md ctia thi trQdng, trQdc het la xdy diing va ap dung cac dinh che khdng vi thuan ldi hda thQdng mai hoac dat cac nhd xuat khau vao nguy cd de bi khdi kien ban pha va trd cap.
Ddi vdi doanh nghiep Viet Nam:
Han che ve nang IQC s i n xui't v i cung Qng d i p Qng yeu cau ve chat iQdng, sdlQdng v i gii ca canh tranh
Khd khan ve nang iQc t i i chi'nh, dieu kien huy dpng vdn do lai s u i t ngan h i n g va chi phi iQu thdng, van t i i cao.
Kinh nghiem va ky nang t i c nghiep vdi ban h i n g han che, thieu tinh lau
dai, ben vQng, chQa chti ddng tich cQc tim kiem va giQ gin k h a e h h a n g .
* Giai p h a p 1. Cap vi mo
Tiep tuc v a n dpng p h i a Hoa Ky t r a o G S P cho Viet N a m (My da gQi bao cao cho Qud'c hpi d cap Bp ThQdng mai, k h d n g c i n P cap Td'ng thd'ng), ddng thdi tich ciic n g h i e n cQu de dQa r a dQdc Id t r i n h c i i cdch p h a p l u a t Viet N a m ve Lao dpng va cdng doan theo hQdng phQ hdp hdn vdi tieu chudn qud'c te vi day l i v a n de Viet N a m cung p h i i dd'i m a t t r o n g qua t r i n h hdi n h a p sdu hdn vao n e n k i n h te qud'c te.
Viet N a m c i n t a n g cQdng hdp t i c vdi C h i n h quyen Hoa Ky de sdm dQdc cdng n h a n la n e n k i n h te t h i trQdng, va dieu n i y cd y n g h i a q u a n trpng, nha't la khi t a p h i i dQdng d i u vdi cdc vii kien b a n p h a gia hoac trd cap.
Tiep tuc n a m b a t c i c t h d n g tin ve nhQng dpng t h a i cua chinh quyen mdi lien q u a n den Cd che' giam sdt h a n g det may Viet N a m , c u n g nhU t a n g cQdng cdng tac v a n ddng cdc cd q u a n v i hiep hdi lien q u a n ciia Hoa Ky ting hp viec n h a p k h a u h a n g det may Viet N a m vao nQdc nay.
Phd bien va td chQc t a p h u a n cho doanh nghiep ve l u a t mdi ciia Hoa Ky lien q u a n den L u a t Ndng nghiep (Farm Bill 2008), n h a t la viec k h a i bao ngudn gd'c x u a t xQ dd gd x u a t k h i u ; c i c quy dinh ve tieu c h u a n ky t h u a t dd'i vdi cd da t r d n (catfish) n h a p k h i u v i o Hoa Ky, tiep tuc theo ddi t i n h h i n h va cd nhQng ddng t h a i c h u a n bi tiep xuc. Ben c a n h dd c a n h bao cho d o a n h n g h i e p ve L u a t an todn san p h a m n h a p k h a u ciia Hoa Ky, dac biet dd'i vdi h a i m a t h d n g det m a y v i dd chdi t r e em de c i c d d a n h nghiep iQu y va p h d n g t r i n h ;
Thdng t i n thQdng m a i : Ciing cd' va n a n g cao h i e u q u a cua c i c m a n g dien tii do Bp q u a n ly t h e o hQdng cd t h e t r u y cap n h a n h va n h i e u cd sd dQ lieu mpt c i c h cd h e thd'ng. TrQdc m a t can tie'n h i n h xay diing dQ lieu ve d o a n h nghiep Viet N a m . Mot t r o n g nhQng khd k h a n va tieu tdn n h i e u thdi gian, cdng sQc cua cdc thQdng vu hien nay la k h i dd'i t i c de n g h i gidi t h i e u b a n hdng, k h d n g cd n g u d n dQ lieu chinh thd'ng, vQa chi t i e t vQa cap n h a t de phuc vu kip thdi ( n a n g cao c h a t iQdng t h d n g tin ctia m a n g V i n a n e t ) .
Tie'p trie n a n g cao n d n g liic va md rpng he thd'ng cd q u a n dai dien thQdng mai, xuc t i e n thQdng mai tai Hoa Ky de d i p Qng n h u cau ciia d o a n h nghiep c u n g nhU ddi hdi ciia thi trQdng tiem n a n g nay.
2. Cap vi mo
Ti'ch ciic t h a m gia cac chQdng t r i n h xuc tie'n thUdng m a i 2008-2009 mdt c i c h n g h i e m tuc va h i e u q u i .
Trong qud t r i n h giao dich vdi k h i c h h a n g b e t sQc c h u y dieu kien t h a n h t o i n vi hien n a y n h i e u n g a n h a n g Hoa Ky d a n g gap khd k h a n , de phdng k h i n d n g n g a n h a n g cd t h e bi p h a s a n t r o n g q u a t r i n h xQ ly chQng tQ t h a n h t o a n d a n de'n t i n h t r a n g khdng t h u dQdc t i e n hdac kien t u n g phQc t a p .
T a n g cQdng sti lien k e t giQa cac d o a n h nghiep t r o n g c u n g n g a n h h a n g de cd t h e tiep n h a n nhQng ddn h a n g ldn m i mdt d o a n h n g h i e p k h d n g cd dieu kien tQ thiic hien ddn le.
Dd'i vdi mpt so' m a t h a n g tdm, c i t r a c i b a s a d a n g bi i p t h u e b a n p h i gid:
de nghi cac d o a n h n g h i e p k h d n g dQdc dQa qua nUdc thQ b a de bdn vao My.
TrQdc m i t , Hiep hpi thiiy s i n cung vdi cac Bp Hen q u a n phd'i hdp c h a t che t r o n g viec n g i n c h a n n g u y cd dUa c i t r a vao dien bi k i e m s o i t n h a p k h a u
tQ nam 2009. Ben canh dd, cac doanh nghiep cung cin chu y hdn de'n quy trinh s i n xuat, d i m bao ve sinh an toan thiic p h i m .
Ve lau dii can phai tim cich tang k h i nang canh tranh ctia hang Viet Nam bang cich cat giam cic chi phi xuat khau nhU giim gii cQdc, ddng thdi nang cao c h i t iQdng dich vu van tii bang cac bien phap n i n g cao quy md va sti dung cac phQdng tien hien dai, nang cap cac cing bien len t i m qud'c te.
II. Quan he dau tvt
1. Chinh sach dau tQ ciia Hoa Ky vdi cac nQdc dang phat trien
Khi diu tQ ra nQdc ngoai, My mud'n chti ddng nam vd kiem soat ngudn nguyen lieu - nang iQdng, chi phd'i cac nganh che tao quan trpng, cac boat ddng tai chi'nh, ngdn hang, khd'ng che thi trQdng, chuyen giao cdng nghe, thu hut hang hda vao My. Theo so' lieu chinh thQc ctia My, hien nay d i u tu triic tiep ciia My cd mat d h i u het tat ci cac nQdc tren the gidi, khoing ditdi 75% tdng FDI cua My ra nUdc ngodi dUdc chuyen den khu viic cac nudc phat trien, gin 25% cdn lai dUdc chuyen vao cdc nUdc dang phat trien.
Mdt diem can luu y trong chinh sach diu tQ cua My vio cic nQdc dang phat trien Id vQdn tdi cap dp vi md, chuyen vd'n dau tQ triic tiep vdo XI nghiep, chQ khdng l i p dQ i n thdng qua mpt cd quan trung gian cap nha nUdc. Ddng thdi My mud'n thuc day phat trien khu vQc tQ nhan s i n xuat nhd ciia cac nQdc,'va do'i vdi cic nQdc XHCN cu la nham hd trd cho q u i trinh tQ nhan hda. My cung rat chu y den viec cap vd'n cho cdc xi nghiep do My "dd dau", nham duy tri v i kiem soit chung trong he thdng t o i n cau
ciia cic cdng ty xuyen qud'c gia. Thtic te cho tha'y rang, dau tQ triic tiep ciia My ra nQdc ngoii, n h a t la dd'i vdi cdc nQdc dang phat trien, ben canh nhQng muc dich kiem ldi. My cdn mud'n nhQng ndi cd d i u tQ ctia My la ndi cd quan he td't ve kinh te vd chinh tri vdi My.
Trong nhQng nam gan day. My thiic hien qua trinh ddi mdi va tai cd cau lai nen kinh te, p h i t trien cac nganh hien dai cd hdm iQdng khoa hpc cao, va day manh boat dpng xuat khau nham bao d i m p h i t trien cao v i dn dinh, cd kha nang chi phd'i thi trQdng qud'c te. De dat dQdc muc di'ch ndy. My se ti'ch cQc d i u tQ ra nQdc ngoai de nang cao hieu q u i tQ ban ciia minh, ddng thdi chuyen giao nhanh cdng nghe da ldi thdi sang cic nQdc dang phat trien v i nhap nhQng mat hdng san xua't kem hieu qua trong nQdc.
Du dau tQ d bat ky dau, miic tieu hang d i u ctia My ludn la ldi nhuan v i to'c dp tang trQdng ctia ldi nhuan trong thdi ban kinh ddanh. Md hinh d i u tQ ciia My chu ye'u Id tu nhan nhd dQa tren trinh dp ky thuat hien dai vdi tQ tQdng l i m an ldn va nhanh.
Chi'nh diem ndy da khie'n mpt so' nQdc chau A tha'y khd hdp t i c , dd trinh dp p h i t trie'n kinh te ndi chung ciia da't nQdc, trinh dp cdng nhdn, ky sQ, can bd q u i n ly,... khdng d i p Qng dQdc nhQng ddi hdi cao v i "rach rdi" dd, va hp mud'n hdp t i c vdi Nhat B i n hdn, it cang t h i n g hdn nhQng lai phu hdp hdn vdi trinh dp phdt trie'n v i tinh cich ctia gidi kinh doanh ban xQ. Viet Nam cung phai dd'i dien vdi thtic te nay va hdn the nQa cdn phai bie't liia chpn giQa cdng nghe khdng hien dai nhQng re tien tQ cac nQdc NICs v i cic nQdc ASEAN khdc vdi cdng nghe hien dai nhQng dat tien tQ My.
2. Q u a n d i e m c i i a H o a Ky v e m o i trQdng d a u tQ c i i a V i e t N a m
Nhiing ddnh gid khong thuan lgi Tien t r i n h ddi mdi nen kinh te cham, ha tdng cd sd k e m p h a t trien khdng kip vdi n h u c i u p h a t trien kinh te ndi chung va p h i t trien d i u tQ ndi rieng.
Thi trQdng t a i chinh chQa dn dinh, cd nhieu rui ro t r o n g k i n h doanh, chQa chuyen ddi dii dp de cd dupe thi trQdng tai chi'nh l i n h m a n h cho cac boat ddng thQdng m a i va d i u tQ.
Tinh t r a n g q u a n lieu, t h a m n h u n g lam tdn thdi gian v i c i n trd thtic hien diu^tU.
Hieu q u i kinh te vd n a n g s u i t lao dpng tha'p do sti yeu kem ve n a n g lUc canh t r a n h qudc te cdn kem qua xa cac nUdc trong k h u vUc.
K h i c biet ve van hoa, t a p q u a n va l u a t le t h u d n g mai cung la nhQng trd ngai cho cac n h a dau tQ x a m n h a p thi trUPng.
NhUng ddnh gid thuan lgi
• Viet N a m l i t h i trQdng d a n g q u a n t a m cho d i u tQ v i xui't k h a u ctia Hoa Ky. Hoa Ky k h a n g dinh vi t r i ctia minh trong tQdng lai d Viet N a m va khdng mudn m a t cd hpi chiem linh thi trQdng d a n g p h a t trien sdi ddng.
Viet N a m d a n g kien tri thilc hien chinh sdch ddi mdi tiep tuc, sau khi gia n h a p WTO se tao mdi trQdng d i u t u hQdng g i n lai vdi qui c h u a n qud'c te, vdi n h i e u chi'nh sdch ngay cang tien bd de d i p Qng yeu c i u ciia c i c n h i ddu tU.
D a n h gia cao nhQng tiem n a n g ciia t h i trQdng Viet N a m : d a n so'ldn va cd t r i n h dp van hod, gia lao ddng t h i p , chinh tri dn dinh, dii trQ tdi nguyen, n a n g iQdng Idrl, k h a n a n g p h d t t r i e n ndng nghiep cao, bd bien ddi rpng va giau ngudn k h a i t h a c . Dd Id nhQng ha'p d a n cho d a u tQ d i i b a n v i hpp t i c kinh te ciia Hoa Ky.
Kinh te Viet N a m d a n g md cQa dd'i vdi cdc n h a d a u tQ Hoa Ky, thdi thuc cac cdng ty Hoa Ky d a n h gia cdc tiem n a n g thQdng m a i d Viet N a m . Bd ThQdng m a i Hoa Ky d d n h gia. Viet N a m la mdt t h i trQdng cd nhieu trien vpng vd d i y n a n g dpng.
Hoa Ky k h a n g dinh t a n g cQdng q u a n he d i u tQ, thQdng m a i vdi Viet N a m trQdc b e t l i vi ldi i'ch k i n h te vd muc tieu chie'n iQdc ciia Hoa Ky.
ChQdng t r i n h O P I C v i hd trd ctia Ngan h i n g xua't n h i p k h a u Hoa Ky (Eximbank) la dpng liic thuc d i y cac cdng ty nhd va vQa cua Hoa Ky q u a n t a m tdi d i u tQ vao Viet N a m . Hoat ddng cua E x i m b a n k vdi Viet N a m thtic te cd t h e coi la mdt d a n g d i u tU gian tiep thdng qua tdi trd x u a t k h a u cua Hoa Ky vao Viet N a m . E x i m b a n k d a n h gia Viet N a m la qud'c gia p h a t trien n h a n h va d a n g tao ra nhQng cd hpi Idm an to ldn cho cdc cdng ty Hoa Ky. D i u t u vd'n vao cac linh viic n h a nQdc se tao dieu kien cho c i c cdng ty Hoa Ky canh t r a n h va lam chuyen bien n h a n h dinh hQdng thi trQdng v i t h a y ddi cd b i n cd cau kinh te ciia ta theo chieu hudng tien bd hdn (tang quy md va hieu qua kinh te). Hien nay ta chUa sii d u n g dQpc ngudn vd'n nay.
3. H o a t d o n g d a u tQ (FDI) ciia H o a Ky t a i V i e t N a m
Theo bao cdo ctia Bd Ke hoach vd D i u tu, n a m 2008, FDI cQa Hoa Ky tai Viet N a m (vd'n d a n g ky) dat 4,2 ty USD, dQng thQ 12 t r o n g so' cac nQdc cd vd'n FDI d i u tQ ldn nha't vao Viet N a m . Vi t r i nay chQa tQdng xQng vdi tiem n a n g ciia h a i nQdc. Hoa Ky d i u tQ h a n g n g h i n ty U S D r a nQdc ngodi h a n g n a m (1.290 ty U S D n a m 2007).
S a u khi Viet N a m gia nhap WTO, mdi trQdng d i u tU d nUdc ta da dUdc cai t h i e n ve n h i e u m a t , va c i c cdng ty
Hoa Ky da bdy td quan tam hdn den diu tu tai Viet Nam. Nam 2007 hai nQdc da cd nhQng cudc tiep xuc cap cao nhi't de thQc day quan he kinh te thQdng mai. Ket q u i chuyen tham My chinh thQc ciia Chti tich nQdc Viet Nam ndm 2007 da thuc day ky ket thu hut dupe 7 ty USD FDI ctia My vao Viet Nam. Nam 2008, FDI ctia My mdi vdo nUdc ta dat 2 ty USD, b i n g ci so' FDI da vao Viet Nam tQ trUdc den nay. Diy Id mpt da'u hieu td't trong thdi ky suy thoii toin ciu dang dien ra r i t phQc tap. Tuy vay, de cd the thu hut FDI ciia Hoa Ky, Viet Nam can phii cii thien mdi trQdng d i u tU manh hdn nQa, m i trQdc het la chuyen ddi manh me hdn sang thi trQdng til do vd cai thien quan he vdi Hoa Ky thdng qua cic thda thuan mdi cao hdn WTO (Hiep dinh d i u tU song phuong - BIT vd Hiep dinh thQdng mai tii do song phQdng - FTA). Hai thda thuan niy dang cd cd hdi (BIT dang dam phan va My dang liy y kien cdng chung de tien h i n h dam phin FTA vdi ta). Day la mpt dau hieu tdt trong tien trien quan he thQdng mai giQa hai nQdc.
D a n h gia c h u n g
Trd ngai ldn nhat l i cic van de chinh tri vi kinh te thQdng dan xen nhau, nhieu van de chQa the giai quye't dQdc cung mpt luc. Cac nha diu tU My nhan xet ring, Viet Nam da cd rat nhieu cai tien va ddi mdi trong boat ddng thu hut dau tu nQdc ngodi, nhQng cdn nhieu viec chUa that sQ lam an tam cic nha diu tu. Ndi chung, cic nhd dau tQ My mong mud'n luat diu tQ ctia Viet Nam cung nhQ cac quy dinh phip luat khac
cd lien quan den linh vQc dau tQ phii thdng thoing, chinh xic, de hieu, it thay ddi de hp yen tam lim an lau dai d Viet Nam.
Ye'u td' ha'p dan ctia mdt thi trQdng
"trinh nguyen" mdi bat dau md ciia m i Viet Nam cd dQdc trdng nhQng nam qua nay khdng cdn la thtic te nQa. Hien nay, cac nha d i u tQ My nhin nhan thi trQdng Viet Nam vdi con mat nghiem khac hdn trQdc. NhQ vay, neu Viet Nam khong cd nhieu chuyen bien kha quan hdn trong viec cai thien mdi trQdng d i u tQ, thi viec canh tranh thu hut dau tQ vdi cic nQdc ASEAN khac se gap nhieu trd ngai. Do k h i c biet ve van hda, tap quan, doanh nhan My van gap nhieu khd khan khi de'n Viet Nam. Cd n h i d i u tu nhan xet r i n g : "Nhi d i u tQ My khi thQdng iQpng hdp t i c l i m an thi diia nhieu vio cdng viec giay td da dQdc chinh thQc hda b i n g cic vdn b i n luat p h i p va kiem toin, trong khi d day, khdng chi rieng d Viet Nam md hau nhQ d k h i p Ddng Nam A, ngQdi ta lam an van diia chinh vid cic quan he ca nhan vdi c i nhan."
Xet ve ye'u td' lao dpng re thi Viet Nam vdn cdn re hdn so vdi cic nUdc ASEAN k h i c v i chic chin Qu diem n i y v i n cdn p h i t huy tdc dung trong tUdng lai gin, nhQng xet ve lau dii, ldi the lao dpng re khdng p h i i l i m i i mai va cho mpi thQ. Ta p h i i vQdn len tren t i m "lao dpng re" ma vQdn tdi nhQng n g i n h cdng nghe cao manh me hdn nQa. Ta p h i i sang gd ciia cac nganh n i y ctia My chQ dQng n i m chd hp den gd ctia ta •
