PHAN TICH TAC DONG CUA PHA GIA TIEN TE DEN TANG TRUONG KINH TE
VIET NAM THOI Kl 2000 2012
NGUYiN MINH HAI*. PHAN TAT HI^N** & DANG HUY^N LINH**
Muc tieu bai viet la nghien cuv tdc dpng cua phd gid tien te den tdng trudmg kinh te & VN.
Cdch tiep can or day Id su dung loai md hinh hdi quy chuyen tiep trffn (STR) u&c lugmg quan he giira ti gid thuc, cung tien, chi tieu cda Chinh phu vdi sdn lugrttg (GDP) cua VN giai doan 2000- 2012. Ket qud cho thay tdc dpng phd gid tien te cd hieu umg ma rgng sdn lucmg niu tdng truong cung tien thap hon nguong 24,46%. Ngugrc lgi, khi tdc dg tdng trudmg cung tien cao hon nguong ndy thi phd gid tien tg se tdc dgng tieu cue den sdn lugmg.
Tir khda: Phd gid tien te, tdng truong kinh te. hoi quy chuyen tiep tran (STR). ti gid hdi dodi, tdng truong cung tien, sdn luong, Viet Nam.
1. Gidii thieu
Pha gia tien tc thuomg dugc su dung de cai thien can can thuang m^i, can can vang lai, tang du trii ngoai hoi ciia mgt quoc gia. Trong khi co su dong thu^n rang pha gia tien te la mgt eong eu quan trgng de dieu chinh cae mat can doi ben ngoai, thi van ton t^ii Uanh luan xung quanh van de pha gia tien te eo thS ho Ug tang trudng kinh t£ hay khong?
Nghien euu phan tich tac dgng eua pha gia tien te den tang tmdng kinh t8 VN giai doan 2000-2012. Cu the hon, tac gia van dung mo hinh hoi quy chuyen tidp Uom (STR) dl tiln hanh khao sat phan ung cua san lugng diu ra doi vdi bien dpng eua ti gia hoi doai. Cach tilp can ebo phep lam sang to nhirng dieu ki?n ma theo do pha gia tien te eo the dan den viee thu hep hoac md rpng san lugmg dau ra tiiy theo toe dp tSng trudng cung tien.
2. PhUc^ng phap luan va md hinh ufng dyng 2.1. Co so phuong phdp ludn Cic li thuyit thuang m?i tmyen thing da ehimg minh ring pha gia tien te cd the cai thien can can
•TTiS., Tnremg D^ihQC Quang Tmng Email [email protected]. hienphantat18@gmail com. "ThS.. Tnjong D^i hoc Sai Gdn — Vi$n Chiin luoc Phdt triin, 80 K4 tio^cti & Diu tn thuomg mai nhd hang xuat khau re ban va hang nhap khau dat hom'"'. Cae li thuyet Keynes mdi eho rang tang xuit khiu rong la mgt nhan tl quan Ugng eho phep thue day san xuat npi dja, tao ra nbu cau lao dpng, tang ciu tieu dung, cau dau tu, va cuoi eung la tang san lugng eua nen kinh te. NPi each khac, pha gia tiln te eo the khoi phuc cae mat can doi ben ngoai, ding thdi tae dpng tich cue den tang tmdng'^l Tuy nhien, mpt si lap luan kinh te cimg vdi nhieu bing chung djnh lugng'^' lai eho thay pha gia tien te eiing anh hudng tieu cue den tang tmdng thong qua mgt si kenh tae dpng:
- Pha gia tiln te se lam tang gia hang nhap khau, gay ra lam phat eho nen kinh te. He qua cua lam phat do pha gia tiln te din den thu hep tong eau npi dja. Ben eanh do, tae dpng cua ehi phi nhap khau eae san phim tmng gian eao ban eiing lam giam di tae dpng tich cue eua pha gia doi vdi can can thuang mai. - Pha gia tiln te eo the lam giam dau Ur vao tai san el dinh do eae nude dang phat trien thudng phai nhap khiu hang hoa von (capital goods). Tae dpng nay se nghiem trpng bom neu bang hoa von phai nhap khau chiem ti le eao trong tong dau tu. PHAT TRieN KINH Tt B^N VONG GIAI OOAN 2011 -2020
PHAT TRIEN KINH TE Isd 269, Thang Ba nam 2013]
- He qua eiia lam phat do pha gia tien te eon lam tang lai suat va tang tien luong, dan den tang eae ehi phi dau vao eho san xuat eiia eae doanh nghiep.
- Pha gia tien te lam tang ganh nang ng va tra ng doi vdi eae khoan vay bang ngoai te, dan den suy giam nguon lue ebo ehi tieu va san xuat.
Do tae dpng eiia pha gia tien te den tang tradng dan xen ea yeu to tieh eue va tieu eue nen viee phan tieh, danh gia va lugng hoa eae tae dpng nay la het sue phiie tap. Nghien eim eiia M. Bahmani & 1.
Miteza (2003)'''' da tong quan 4 eaeh tilp ean dupe su dung de phan tieh tae dpng eiia pha gia tien te doi vdi tang tradng:
- Caeh tiep ean Uude va sau pha gia (Before- After Approach): So sanh san lugng eiia mpt nhom nude Uong 3 nam trade va 3 nam sau khi pha gia tien te. Han ehe Idn nhat eua eaeh tiep ean nay la khong danh gia duge tae dgng rieng re eiia pha gia den san lugng.
- Caeh tiep ean nhom dieu khien (Control-Group Approach): So sanh san lugng ciia mpt nhom nude thue hien pha gia tien te vdi mpt nhom nude khong pha gia trong ciing mpt khoang thdi gian. Cach tiep can eho rang tat ea eae nude pha gia va khong pha gia chju tac dpng moi tradng kinh te quoc te nhu nhau do do su thay doi san lupng eiia eae nude pha gia la do tae dpng eiia chinh sach pha gia. Mae du each tiep can nhu vay khae phue duge nhuge diem eua each tiep can trade va sau pha gia nhung nhieu nha kinh te cho rang viee so sanh giiia eae nude phai tien hanh pha gia vdi eae nude khong pha gia la khong thoa dang bdi eae nude pha gia thudng dang CO tinh hinh kinh te yeu kem hon nhieu eac nude khong pha gia. - Cach tiep can mo phong vT mo (Macro - Simulation Approach): Su dung eae mo hinh kinh te lugng vT mo cau tnic (Macro Econometric Model) hoac cae mo hinh can bang tong quat tinh toan duge (Computable General Equilibrium Model) de mo phong tae dpng eua pha gia doi vdi san lugng. iTu diem eua each tiep can la cung cap rat nhieu eae phan tieh kinh te vT mo, dae biet la co ehe tmyen dan tac dpng cua pha gia den san lupng eung nhu eae bien so kinh te vi mo khae. Tuy nhien, viec xay dung cae mo hinh loai nay la hit sue tin kem, phue tap.
Cach hip can kinh tl lugng (Econometric Approach): Cac loai mo hinh kinh tl hrpng duge su dung de phan tich tae dpng eua pha gia doi vdi san lupng bao gom ude lupng panel data ebo mpt nhom nude, md binh chuoi thdi gian (Time Series Models), mo hinh ehuoi thdi gian cau tnic (SVAR, VECM), va hoi quy chuyin tilp Uon STR'^' (Smooth Transihon Regression Models). Bien duge giai thieh Uong eac mo hinh nay la san lugng va cae bien gidi thieh CO the la ti gia thue, ti gia danh nghTa, chi tieu cua Chinh phu, ti le ehi tieu eua Chinh phu Uen GDP, eung tien, dieu kien thuong mai (term of Uade), xuat khau, nhap khau, lai suat, dp chenh san lupng (output gap), ti le that nghiep, gia dau tho,...
2.2. Md hinh kinh te lugrng
Mo hinh su dung de nghien euu tac dpng eua phd gia tien te den tang tradng kinh te VN dua Uen dpg mo hinh eua Edwards (1989b)''^''. Phuong trinh eiia mo hinh duge bieu dien nhu sau:
logY=ao + ailogE + a2logM + aalogG + u (1) Trong do: Y la san lugng hay GDP theo gid thpc te, G dai dien eho ehi tieu cua Chinh phu, M la tang tradng cung tien, vd E la ti le pha gia eua ti gia thpc.
He so a 1 do ludng dp eo gian giiia sdn lugng va ti gia, ddu vd dp Idn eua he so ndy cho bilt tae dpng eua pha gia den sdn lugng. Vi ti gia hoi dodi dupe xae dinh nhu Id don vj dong npi te tinh theo don vj tien te quoc te nen he so am cua ti gia hoi dodi ham y rang phd gia se lam gidm sdn lupng, ngupe lai he so duong ham y pha gia se thue ddy md rpng sdn lupng. He so a.2 the hien tdc dpng cua cung tien den san lupng vd dupe ki vpng dau duong (+). He so as phdn dnh tdc dpng eua hieu qua chinh sach tdi khoa doi vdi sdn lugng vd eiing duge ki vgng ddu duong (+). Phuong Uinh (1) e6 the duge ude lugng bang cdch su dung hoi quy chuyen tiep tran phi tuyen (STR). Dang phi myen eua phuang trinh dupe bieu dien nhu sau: logY=ao + ajlogE + azlogM + aslogG + [a'o + a'llogE + a'zlogM + a*3logG]G(s„Y,e) + e, (2)
Trong d6,^i''^2'^3 la cae tham so trong phan myln tinh cua md hinh, ^ 2' ^ 3 Id cdc tham si 3 4
trong phan phi tuyIn cua mo hinh, va f,~/7*/(0,a-„') Ham chuySn tilp G(r,c,J,)=|^l + ex;7|-rn(^,-c,)|j r>0
la mpt ham cua biln chuyin tilp lien tuc theo s, bj chan (hi chan giira 0 va 1) va phu thuoc vao cac bien chuyen hip (s,), tham si nguong (e) va tham si
"dp Uom" y. Cae veeto (|) va 6 bieu thi eho eae tham so Uong phan tuyIn tinh va phan phi myln cua mo hinh tuong ung. Ham chuyen G eo the co dang don di?u hoac dii xung tuy thupe vao K = 1 hay K = 2 Uong ham chuyen. Neu K = 1 thi mo hinh dupe gpi Id LSTRl voi mpt nguong duy nhat va qua trinh chuyin giira hai Uang thai la dom dieu. Nlu K = 2 (mo hinh LSTR2) se co mpt nguong phia Uen va mpt nguong phia duoi giira hai trang thai.
Quy Uinh mo hinh boa STR bao gom ba giai do^in la chi dinh, uoc lupng va danh gia'^l Giai doan chi dinh mo hinh la kiem djnh tinh chdt phi tuyen cua mo hinh tuyen tinh (1), tir do lua ehpn ra mpt biln chuyen eu the va mpt dang mo hinh eu the (LSTRl hoac LSTR2) cho ude lupng phi Uiyln.
3. Ket qua u'dc \itdng md hinh STR ve tac dpng pha gia tien te den tang tru'dng
Trong nghien cuu nay tac gia su dung bp so lieu chuoi thoi gian tan suat quy voi 71 quan sdt, tir quy 1-1995 din quy 111-2012 eho cdc biln da Uinh bdy Uong phuomg trinh (2). Cdc si lieu GDP vd chi tieu ciia Chinh phu theo gia so sanh, ehi so CPI do Vu H? thong Tai khodn Qude gia - Tong Cue Thong ke (GSO) ude tinh. Cdc so lieu eung tien vd ti gid cua VN va chi si CPI ciia My dupe Idy tir ca sd dir lieu IFS (International Financial Statistic) eua Quy Tien t? Quoc tl (IMF). Trong nghien cuu nay ti gia thuc ehi dupe tinh giua VND/USD. DI danh gid dupe day du tdc dpng eua ede bien npi sinh (ti gid thue vd cung tien) den tang tmdng, dp tre eua bien ndy Uong mo hinh dupe ehpn Id 4 vd dp tre eua bien ngoai sinh (chi tieu cua Chinh phu) Id 2. Do tdt cd cae bien eo m|it Uong phuang trinh ude lupng (2) deu Id cdc ehuoi thdi gian khdng dung nen cdc bien deu dupe chuyen thdnh cdc sai phdn bdc nhdt cua logarit tu nhidn.
Vi nghien euu tap trung vao moi quan he phi tuyen tinh eo the co vd cac dnh hudng bdt dii xung cua pha gid Uen te den tang tmdng nen budc dau tien Id thue hien ede kilm djnh tuyIn tinh cua phuomg trinh (1) theo eac bude da dupe mo td d Uen.
Qud Uinh thue nghiem nay dupe dua Uen each tiep can di rir tong qudt tdi eu the (general to specific) bang viee loai bo eae khodng tre ea biet nhdm tli thieu AIC. Ket qud va eac h? so ude lugmg dupe trinh bay trong cot thu nhat d Bdng 2. Kilm djnh eae chi djnh tuyen tinh cua mo hinh khdng djnh khong CO bat ki ddu hieu khuylt tat ndo vd mue dp phii hpp eiia mo hinh kha eao vdi he si xde djnh R^ = 0,7424.
Ket qud ude lugmg tir mo hinh tuyIn tinh eho thdy phd gid tien te se tdc dpng tieh cue din sdn lugmg sau 2 quy.
Bang 1. Kiem djnh tuyen tinh di/a vao chi djnh cua STR
Bien chuyen tiep Gia trj p-value Chi djnh mo hinh Trend 1,6766e-01 Linear
Ay,., 1,6211e-02 LSTR2 Ay,.2 2,1432e-03 LSTRl Ayw 7,6766e-04 LSTR2 Ayw 3,4737e-04 LSTR1 Agt 2,2492e-02 LSTR2 Ag,., 2,1313e-02 LSTR2 Ag,.2 3,8443e-02 LSTR1 Am, 1,745e-04* LSTRl Am,., 6,1153e-02 Linear Am,.2 1.2492e-02 LSTR1 Ae, 5,5664e-01 Linear Ae,., 3,5409e-02 LSTRl Aei.2 8.6211e-02 Linear
Ghi chu: Ket qua chi dinh mo hinh dira vao gia trj p-value nho nhat.
Bdng 1 trinh bdy ket qud p-value eua cdc kiem dinh tuyen tinh thue hien Uen mo hinh tuyen tinh da ehi djnh. Gid tri p-value thdp nhat ngu y bdc bo manh nhdt gid thilt tuyIn tinh. Dua Uen phep so sdnh gia Uj p-value eua H2, H3, H4, mo hinh LSTRl dupe lua ehpn. Mae dii cae kiem djnh tuyen tinh ehung to rang phan Idn ede bien chuyen tiep deu eo gid trj vd viee ehpn lua bien chuyen tiep ed the ddn CAC CHINH SACH VA TANG TRLTONG ^0
PHAT TRI^N KINH Jt BtN VUNG GIAI OOAN 2011 -2020 ^ 3
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den mpt vai dang mo hinh phi tuyen khae nhau nhung mo hinh li thuyet eua Edwards (1) da gpi y ve vai tro eua eung tien Uong moi quan he giua pha gia va san lupng nen bien Am, dupe ehpn lam bien ehuyln tilp eua STR de tiln hanh uPe lupng mo hinh LSTRl.
Bang 2 Uinh bay eae gia tri eua G va C khi tien hanh eue tieu hoa tong binh phuong eae phan du trong qua trinh grid seareh. Tham so dp doe y = 8,14 the hien qua Uinh ebuyen tiep kha Uon tir thai ki tang tmong eung tien "eham" (G = 0) den thai ki tang tmong eung tien "nhanh ban" (G = 1). He so C
= 24,46 the hien nguong cua tang tmong eung tien ma tai do tae dpng eua eac bien so den san lupng eo buoc chuyen tiep, tuc la ban chat eae quan he kinh te giira eae bien so thay doi ke tii nguong nay. Tu eae ket qua Uong Bang 2, co the nit ra mpt so nhan dinh nhu sau:
- Chi tieu eua Chinh phu (bien Ag): Dau eua bien ehi tieu eua Chinh phu mang dau + (dau duong) trong thai ki tang tmong eung tien thap (G = 0).
Ngupc lai, Uong thai ki tang tnrang eung tien eao (G
= 1) dau eua bien ehi tieu eua Chinh phu mang dau - (dau am). Tong eac he so Ag,.2 tae dpng den tang tmong kinh te bang - 0,232. Dieu nay ham y ton tai hieu ung thu hep san luong khi mo rpng ehi tieu eua Chinh phu.
- Ti gia thue (bien Ae): Dau eua bien ti gia thuc mang dau (+) Uong thdi ki tang trudng cung tien thap (G = 0). Trong khi do, thdi ki tang tmdng cung tien eao (G = 1) dau eua bien ti gia thuc mang dau (-). Tae dpng tong cpng eua he so Ae,.2 den tang tmdng san lupng la + 0,357, nghTa la eac boat dpng kinh te eo kha nang dupe cai thien khi tien hanh pha gia tien te. Nhung tae dpng nay ehi xay ra trong thdi ki tang trudng eung tien thap dudi ngudng 24,46%. - Cung tien (bien Am): Dau eua bien eung tien va cac dp Ue eua bien nay mang dau (-) trong thdi ki tang tmdng eung tiln thSp (G = 0). Thdi ki tang tmdng cung tien cao (G = 1) dau cua bien eung tien Am mang dSu (+). Tac dpng tong cpng cua bien cung tien din tang tmdng san luong vdi dp tre 2 quy la + 0,157, nghTa la tang eung tiln co tae dpng tich cue den tang tmdng. Sau day la ket qua ude lupng mo hinh STR d dang phuang trinh (eac si d Uong ngoac la t-ratio):
A,v = 0,12173 - 0,0023921x Ay,., -0.75534x Ay,.,
+ 0,68316xAy, ^ + 0,08486x Aj^,.,-0,07868x Am, - 0,56389x Am,_, -l,8466x Am,., -2.22570 x Ae + [ -0,36570x Ay,, + 0,82954x Ay,., -0,80778x Ay, ^ -0,317 31xA5,., + 2,00369x Am.., + 2,69631x AeJ x' (1 + exp{(-8,13643 x (Am, + 24,4634)}]-'
Ket qua ude lupng mo hinh tuyen tinh va mo hinh phi myen deu ung hp ebo gia thuyet pha gia tiln te CO bieu ung lam tang san lupng. Tuy nhien, nhirng phat hien eua mo hinh STR eo nhieu khac biet so vdi mo hinh tuyen tinh, Uong do ehi ra rdng Uong giai doan tang tmdng eung tien thap duai ngudng 24,46% thi tae dpng pha gia tien te den tang tmdng kha manh me. Ngupe lai, khi toe dp tang tmdng eung tien eao ban ngudng 24,46% thi pha gi4 tien te se tae dpng tieu cue den san lupng, the hien a dau am eua he so hoi quy thu dupe.
Tat ca eae kiem dinh chuan doan va kiem dinh tinh phu hop eung dupe trinh bay d Bang 2. Cac kiem djnh chuan doan khong lam tang them bat ki moi lien quan nao doi vdi mo hinh tuyen tinh chi djnh, cae gia thuyet khong eo tu tucmg quan, va tham so khong doi. Ngoai ra, eae gia tri p-value cua kilm dinh LM vl ARCH bac 8, va kilm dinh Jarque-Bera cua mo hinh la phu hop.
Bang 2. Ket qua Ude lUpng md hinh tuyen tinh va md hinh 2 cd che LSTRl cua GDP tang tru'dng Bien
chuyen tiep Ay,-3 Ay:--.
Linear LSTR1 Model
model G=1
0,07137 0,12173 (3,5414) (2,0768) -0,5701 -0.0023921 -0,36570 (-6,5806) (-1.7688) (-1,8438) -0,5032 -0,75534 0,82954 (-6,0501) (-1.774) (1,7191) -0,5164 0,68316 -0,80778 (-5.5775) (3,2666) (-3,3847) 3 6
So 269. Thang Ba nam 20ia Agt-t
0,1315 (1,7462) 0,08486
(2,1210) -0.31731 '-1,8008) Ami -1,4367
(-1,7281) -0,6679 (-4,3135) -1,9930 (-1,5510)
-0,07868 (-1,8749) -0,56389 (-2,6143) -1.8466 (-1,5748)
2,00369 (1,7115) Aei ^e^,
Ae..2 0,8178 (5.6643) 2.479732
(1,7688) -2,12265 (-1.84538)
Transit. Vb Amt
y/c ^' = 8,13643 c =-24,4634 Goodness
SD of resid 0.036 R' 0,7424 0,92187 AlC/SC -5.09/-5,56 -7,83/-6.12 Diagnostics (p-values)
Autocorr(8) 0,3413 0,7951 Mormaiity 0,5976 0,7334 ARCH(8) 0,8745 0,5876 Constancy
Nonlinearity 0,5571 Not computed
(inversion problem) Ghi chii: Gid trj thong l<e t-statistics trong dau ngogc don.
4. Ket luan nghien cuTu va thufc tien tac dong cua pha gia tien te den tang tru'dng giai doan 2000-2012
Trong khuon kho kha nang mo hinh hoa ciia mo hinh STR voi cac nguon dir lieu dau vao tin cay nhat CO thi duge tir T6ng cue Thong ke va Quy Tien te Qu6c tl, nhom nghien ciiu nit ra mgt vai ket luan ve tae dgng cua pha gia tien te den tang tmong kinh te VN nhu sau:
- Cac nghien cuu thue nghiem tmoe day ve pha gia tien te bang cae mo hinh ehuoi thoi gian tmyen thong thuong gia dinh ve eac moi quan he myen tinh vi the khong the phan anh eae moi quan he cua cae bien so kinh te vT mo mgt each day du, dac biet khi CO tae dpng eua cac bien so*khac cung c6 lien quan den san lupng dau ra. Trong khi do, mo hinh STR chi ra mpt each tiep c^n c6 tinh den tac dpng eua cung tien bang ham phi tuyen, eu the la: Pha gia tien
te se giup mo rong san lupng voi dieu kien toe do tang eung tien thue te duoi nguong 24,46%. Trong truong hgp toe dp tang eung tien \argt qua nguong nay thi pha gia tien te lai co tae dpng thu hep san lupng.
- Van dung ket qua dinh lupng xem xet thuc tien pha gia tien te va tae dpng pha gia tien te den tang Uuong kinh tl VN giai doan 2000 - 2012 c6 thi thay:
+ Ke tu sau cupc khung hoang tai ehinh Uen te chau A 1997-1998, VN da thue hien ehe dp neo ti gia CO dieu chinh dan (crawling peg). Ti gia VND/USD da dugc duy Ui on dinh trong kboang thdi gian dai, tu quy 1/2000 din quy III/2009 ti le pha gia VND/USD quy sau so quy tmdc luon dudi 1%. Tuy nhien, toe dp tang tmdng eung tien Uong giai doan nay la rat eao, binh quan Uen 26,5%.
Chinh vi vay, tae dgng eua pha gia tien te eo the da anh hudng tieu cue den tang tmdng nhung tae dong khong nhieu do ti le pha gia thap.
+ Trong giai doan mat can doi vT mo vira qua, ti .gia VND/USD lien tuc bi pha vdi ti le kha eao, tinh hr quy lV/2009 din quy 11/2011 ti gia VND/USD da tang tren 24%. Rieng cac quy 1/2010, 1/2011 va 11/2011, tl le pha gia len din 5,04%; 9,35% va 3,64%. Trong khi do, tie dp tang eung tien giai doan, nay van kha cao, dae biet tir quy III/2010 den quy 1/2011 toe dp tang eung tien so vdi cung ky cao (26,5%; 29,7% va 25,9%) di kem vdi ti le pha gia eao. Theo so lieu eua Tong Cue Thong ke, toe dp tang tmdng GDP nam 2011 giam xudng 5,8% so vdi tic dp tang 6,8% eua nam 2010. Chiing t6i cho rang tic dp tang trudng GDP nam 2011 giam eo the eo nguyen nhan tir tae dpng eua viee pha gia tien te. -I- Tu quy 111/2011 den nay, Ngan hang Nha nude da thuc hien cae chinh sach that chat de on dinh kinh tl vT mo. Nam 2012, ti gia VNDAJSD tham chi da giam 0,96% so vdi nam 2011. Trong boi canh mat can dii vT mo keo dai thi day dupe eoi la mpt thanh eong trong viee on dinh tam li thj tmdng va kiem chl lam phat cua eo quan hoach djnh ehinh sach tien te. Tuy nhien, viee Ngan hang Nha nude "neo cimg"
ti gia VND/USD trong khi tang tmdng cung tien, va tin dung ea nam dat thap (20% va 7%, mong img), ding thdi tang trudng kinh te eung rat kho khan CACCHINHSACHVATANGTRUONG, ««V
PHAT TRI^N KINH re B^N VUNG GIAI DOAN 2011 -2020 O #
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(5,03%) thi thuc thi chinh sach ti gia c6 dinh la khong hoan toan hop li.
5. De xuat cac giai phap
Chinh vi vay, theo quan diem cua nhdm nghien euu, Ngan hang Nha nuoc nen thuc hien eae giai phap trong nam 2013 nhu sau:
(i) Ndi rgng bien dp giao dpng eua ti gia len ±3%
nham dieu hanh ti gia va thi tmdng ngoai hoi phu hpp vdi eae tin hieu eua thi tmdng. Bien dp de xuat ehinh la bien dp trade khi Ngan hang Nha nude thue hien pha gia 9,3% va thu hep bien dp rir ±3% xuong
±1% vao ngay 11/2/2011.
(ii) Tien hanh timg bude giam gia dong npi te de ho trp tang tradng, gop phan dat mue tieu tang GDP 5,5%. Nhom nghien euu de xuat ti le pha gia blnh quan nam 2013 so vdi nam 2012 la khoang 3-5%.
(iii) Tuy nhien, de dat dupe muc tieu ho Up tang tradng khi tien hanh pha gia tien te thi tang tradng eung tien can dupe kiem soat dudi ngudng 24,46%
nhu kit qua ude lupng cua nhom nghien euu da ehi ra. Do tang tradng eung tien bao gom tang tmdng tin dung va thay d6i du trir ngoai hoi (change in net foreign assets) nen tac gia de xuat kiem soat tang tradng tin dung cua eae ngan hang thuong mai rtr 12-15% pjy theo dien biln eua tinh hinh kinh te vi mo. De xuat nay can cu Uen thuc te du tru ngoai hoi eua VN da tang manh trong nam 2012 va eo kha nang tiep tuc tang Uong nam 2013B
CHU THICH
[1] Hai li thuyet chung minh tac dpng cua pha gia tien t# co the cai thien can can thijong mgi la dieu ki^n Marshall - Lerner (Marshall - Lerner conditions) va hieu ijng duong cong chii' J (J-curve effect).
[2] Chinh vi nhung li do nay nen pha gia tien t^ luon la mpt cong cy quan trpng trong cac chuang trinh on djnh hoa (stabilization programs) cua Quy Tien tp Quoc te (IMF), xem chi tilt trong M. Bahmani va I. Miteza.(2003), "Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary" ? A survey article, Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.
[3] Xem chi tiet hon trong M. Bahmani va I. Miteza.(2006), "Are Devaluations Contractionary ? Evidence from Panel Cointegration", Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.
[4] Da trich din.
[5] Tham khao chi tiet d Terasvirta (2004).
[6] Tham khao Edwards, S.(1989b), Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. [7] Tham khao chi tiet d Terasvirta (2004)
[8] Bao cao tinh hinh kinh te xa hpi nam 2012 cua Tong eye Thong ke.
[9] Thong cao bao chi v§ danh gia dieu hanh chinh sach tien te nam 2012, djnh hudng dieu hanh trong n§m 2013.
[10] Theo bao cao "Cap nhat tinh hinh phat trien kinh te Viet Nam" cua Ngan hang The gioi trinh bay tgi Vi^n Chien lupc Phat trien, Bp Ke hoach va Dau tu' thang 1/2013.
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TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
Ahmed, S., (2003), "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Latin America and Implications for Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes," Joumal of Development Economics, 72, 181-202.
Brijggemann, R. and Lutkepohl, H. (2001), "Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a
U.S. Monetary System," in R. Friedmann, L. Knuppel and H. Lutkepohl (eds.), Econometric Studies: A Festschrift in Honour of Joachim Frohn, LITVerlag, Munster, 107-128.
Chou, W.L, and Chao, C.-C, (2001), "Are Currency Devaluations Effective? A Panel Unit Root Test."
Economics Letters, 72, 19-25.
Edwards, S.(1989b), Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
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Halpern, L., and Wyplosz, C, (1997), "Equilibnum Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, 44, December, 430-461.
Ilir Miteza (2006), "Exchange Rates and Non-Linear Dynamics in Output: Evidence from Bulgana", Joumal of Economics and Business Vol. IX - 2006, No 1 (91-115).
Le Quoc Ly, (2004), Tl gia hoi doal - nhiing van de II lu$n va thi/c tiSn dieu hanh & VN, NXB Thong ke. Ha Noi.
Le Van Tu/ & Nguyen Quoc Khanh (2000), MQI so van de ve chinh sach ti gia hoi doai cho muc tieu phat trien kinh ti a VN, NXB Thong ke, Ha Ngi.
M. Bahmani va I. Miteza.(2003), "Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary" ? A survey article, Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2
M. Bahmani va I, Miteza.(2006), "Are Devaluations Contractionary ? Evidence from Panel Cointegration", Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.
Mejia-Reyes, P. Osborn, D. R. and Sensier, M. (July 2004), Modeling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Growth in Latin America, Vers. 35,University of Manchester, 25 Feb. 2006.
Nguyin Khac Minh (2009), "Ca sa li thuyet chu6i thai gian phi tuyen va irng dung vao xay du-ng mo hinh pheln tich Igm phat cho VN", Chuang trinh ho tra kTthugt cua chau Au cho VN, Hap phan 5: Phan tich thong ke, cong cy chfnh sach, Bp Ke ho^ch va Dau tu.
Terasvirta, T. (2004), "Smooth Transition Regression Modelling," in H. Lutkepohl and M. Kratzig (eds.), Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 222-242.
Vu Quoc Huy & cpng sp (2011): Ti gia hoi doai giai doan 2000-2011: Cac nhan to quyet djnh, va miic do sai l$ch tic dgng doi vol xuat nh$p khau, Ban quyen Oy ban kinh t§ cua Quoc hpi va UNDP tgi VN, 2011.
CAC CHlNH SACH VA TANG TRUONG,
PHAT TRI6N KINH re B^N VUNG GIAI OOAN 2011-2020
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