KINH TE NGANH - LANH TH
Tac dong lan toa cua dau tu* cong den san xuat va gia trj gia tang cua TP. Ha Noi
MAI THI THU' PHO THI KIM CHI"
CHG THj NHCldMG*"
NGUYiN PHC/ONG T H A O " "
Blng vi$c ap di^ng md hinh cSn do'i li^n nganh I/O, bai vie't danh gia tac ddng lan toa cua dSu tif cdng din san xuS't va gia tri gia tdng cac nhdn td'tdng c^u cud'i ciing cua Ha Ndi. Tuf do, di/a ra m^t sd' khuyd'n nghi chinh sach hiXdn^ tdi tdng cifcfng cac tac dOng lan toa tfch ci^c cua diu ti/ cdng Ha Npi nhdm ndng cao hi$u qua tai cd'u true dau tvt cdng cua Thanh phd'.
(hay ma trdn hd so' chi phi todn phdn). Ma trdn nay eho bid't chi phi toan phan de san xua't ra mot ddn vi sff dung cudi cung nao dd.
(^uan he cd ban eiia Leontief trong I/O eho phdp xem xet tdc ddng lan tda ciia cde nhan td tdng eau den san xud't vd gid tri tdng thdm. Trong nghidn cffu nay, de danh gid tac ddng ciia dau tff cdng dd'i vdi gid trj san xud't vd gid tri gia tang ciia kinh id'Thanh phd', he so' lan tda se dffdc sff dung ldm edng cu do Iffdng chinh.
Lan tda cua nhdn td'tong cdu de'n sdn xud't Su" dung quan he ed bdn eiia Leontief: X = (l-A"*)'.
Y" (1)
Vdl A*" la ma tran he sdchi phi trung gian trffe tie'p, I Id ma tran ddn vj, V Id ma trdn \i cdu theo ngdnh, ddng eiia ma tran the hipn ngdnh sdn pham, cdt cua ma trdn V Id cdc nhdn td'cua tdng cdu trong Ha Ndi. De y rdng, cau d day bao gom tieu diing cud'i cung. tieh luy, xud't khau ra ntfde ngodi vd xua't khau ra tinh khde, khdng bao gdm nhdp khau.
Lan toa cua cdc nhdn tdtdng cdu din gid trf tdng them
Sffdung quan he V = \(I-A'')'.Y'' (2)
O day V la ma tran he sd cua gid trj tang thdm, V la ma trdn gid trj tang them. Quan he ndy ehi ra stf lan toa eiia cde nhan td'tong eau dd'n cdc nhan td'cua gid tn tang thdm, nhtf: thu nhap ciia ngtfdi lao ddng, thue sdn xud't, kha'u hao tai san cd djnh vd thang dff san xua't.
Quan he (1) cho thd'y, lan tda eua tiftig nhan td eua eau dd'n gid tri san xua't, nhihig chffa chdc mtfc dp lan toa cua edu dd'n gid trj sdn xuat cao dd tao ra thu nhap Iff phan tff trdn dffdng ehdo bdng 1, cdc san xud't ciia qud'e gid cao, van dd quan trpng Id khi phan tfl' ngodi dffdng ehdo bdng 0. kich edu vao dau ngdnh san pham ndo, se tao ra nhieu
Ma tran (1-A)' Id ma trdn Leontief thu nhap nha^t cho tinh/vung hodc da't nffdc.
PHI/ONG PHAP
Md hinh can dd'i lien ngdnh 1/0 dffdc GS. Wassility Leontief xdy dffng vdo cud'i ndm 1930 bat nguon Iff nhffng y ttfdng trong cudn "Tff Ban" cua Karl Marx va cung nhd dd, dng dd dffdc nhdn gidi Nobel kinh tdndm 1973. Tff dd dd'n nay, md hinh I/O dffdc gidi hpe gia dd cap dd'n nhtf mpt cdng cu quan trpng trong vide phdn tich va dtf bdo ve ed'u tnie kinh Id' cua mot dd't ntfdc bode mdt vung trdn cd sd xem xet cdc md'i quan he lien ngdnh trong kinh td'.
Trong md hinh I/O, ma trdn Leontief cdn gpi Id ma tran he sdchi phi toan phan.
Id cdng cu ddng vai ird quan trong, phuc vu hffu ich cho vide phan tich, dtf bdo.
Quan he hdm sd'cd bdn ciia md hinh 1/0 cd dang:
A*X+Y=X Trong dd:
A: ma ff-an he sd chi phi trung gian trtfc tid'p.
X: la vectd gia tri sdn xudt.
Y: la vectd sff dung cudi cOng.^
Quan he A*X+V=X cd the bieu dien nhtf sau:
Y = (I-A)*X X = (I-A)' * Y
Trong do; 1 la ma trdn ddn vj, cdc
; tam Thdng l I IXi bciO Kmh te - Xa ho
51
KINH TE NGANH - LANH THO
BANC 1: LAN TOA CUA CAC YEO i d TOnO CAU CUOI CUNG Tfli SAN XUAT VA THU NHAP CUAHANpl
Gia tn san xual Gia in gia tang
Tit-u diing
1.2967 0.636.1
T6*ng tich luy
1.1744 0.3824
Trong do Ti'ch luy
cflng 1,1745 0.3827
Kch luy khde 1,1740 0.382-1
Xua't khau 1.13876 (1,39680
HiMH I: DQ LAM TOA CUA TJCH LUY COMG HA NQl DEN GTSX VA GTGT SO Vdl TP. HO CHI MINH VA CA MClCJC
• TP HCM •Cdni/dc
BAMG 2: DO LAM TOA CUA TICH LUY CONG VA CAC TJCH LUY KHAC DEM GIA TR| GIA T A N G
CUA HA NQI SO Vfll TP. HCM VA CA MddC
Tich luy cong Tich liiy khae
HftNOl 0.3827 0.3823
IT.HltClrfftOiita 0.4441 0.4300
Ciml&c 0,4362 0,5346
Thong ke
Cd 2 loai bdng I/O dd la bang I/O dang nhap khau eanh tranh (competitive-import type) vd dang I/O nhdp khau phi canh tranh (non-competitive import type).
Nghien etfu nay sijfdung bang can ddi lidn ngdnh dang phi canh tranh cua Ha Ndi nam 2007 de tinh todn tdc dpng ciia cdc ye'u to tdng eau cud'i cung (trong dd cd tdch tieh liiy cdng) tdi san xud't va thu nhap eua Ha Ndi. Do trong giai doan 5 nam cd'u true nen kinh td' dtfde the hipn eOa bang cdn dd'i lidn ngdnh khd dn dinh, do dd cdn dd'i lidn ngdnh dang phi canh tranh nay ed thd' dai dien eho giai doan 2005-2010.
Ben eanh dd, nghien etfu su" dung bang can dd'i lidn nganh dang phi canh tranh ciia Viet Nam ndm 2007 vd bang edn dd'i lidn ngdnh cua TP Ho Chi Minh nam 2007 de dtfa ra cdc phdn tich so sanh giffa Hd Npi vdi ca ntfdc vd TP. Ho Chi Minh.
Sdlidu ve dau ttf edng eua Ha Ndi (dtfde su'dung di taeh tdng tieh luy thdnh tich luy cdng vd tieh luy khae) dtfdc ld'y ttf nien gidm ihdng ke ndm 2007 cua Vidt Nam, Ha Ndi vd TP Ho Chi Minh.
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
^ Trong tdng vdn dau ttf xa hpi cua Hd Ndi. cd ngudn vdn dau ttf ttf ngan sach nha ntfdc dtfdc hid'u nhtf la vd'n dau ttf cdng va cae ngudn vd'n khde. Trong phan nay
se phan tich tinh lan toa cua diu lu cong (nguon dau ttf ttf ngan sdch nhd niAJc) de'n gid tri san xud't vd gid tri gia tdng cii cdc nhan td tdng cau cud'i ciing eiia HI Ndi qua bang I/O phi canh tranh eiia la Npi ndm 2007 va dan tdi mpt sd kdt quJ;
(!) Do lan tda cda tich ldy cdng Hi Ndi trudc ddy con thd'p so vdi cdc yd»t6 hinh ihdnh tdng cdu vd vdi con sd tuang ffng cua TP. Ho Chi Minh vd cd nffdc. . Sur dung bang I/O cho phep tinh lodn dp lan tda eua cac yd'u to trong tdng dn eud'i eiing, bao gom cde ye'u td: tidudil%
tich luy (irong dd cd tich luy edng vd tich luy khde), xua't kh£u de'n gia trj sdn xual vd gid tri gia tdng. Kd't qua tinh todn S Bang I cho tha'y. khi tdng 1 ddng vao tich luy edng eiia Hd Npi, se thu dtfde kho3ng 1,17 ddng gia trj san xua't vd 0,38 dong gid tri gia tdng. Tuy nhien, mtfc dO lan tda eua tich IQy cdng v§n tha'p nhat trong cdc yd'u Id' tdng cau cua Ha Noi. Cd the tha'y, tdng 1 ddng trong tieu dung vd xuS^t khau ciia Ha Ndi se tang gid trj san xuift ttfdng tfng 1,297 vd 1,139 ddng vd gid trj gia tang ttfdng tfng 0,636 vd 0,397 dong.
Vide dp lan tda cija tich luy edng da gid tri san xua't ciing nhtf gid tri gia tdng thd'p hPn cdc yd'u id tdng cau khde ed the giai thich phan ndo cho vide lam phit tang manh trong giai doan vtfa qua. Khi nen kinh id' Viet Nam ndi chung vd Hi Ndi ridng thtfc hidn ede chinh sdeh kich eau nhdm vtfc day nen kmh te do i^c ddng cua khung hoang, tuy nhidn vi$c tang dau ttf khdng lam tdng dtfdc ndng li/c san xuat va hidu qua nen kmh te thi mgi ddng thai kich cau chi tac dpng ldm tdng lam phat md thdi. Them vdo dd, vipc nen san xud't cdn phu thudc nhieu vdo nguyftn lieu nhap khau thi kich c^u cdn cd the dan dd'n tdng thdm hut thtfdng mai.
So sanh vdi TP. Ho Chi Minh vd d ntfdc, cd the thay, tac ddng eua diu ttf cdng Ha ndi vdi gia tn san xud^t vd ca gii trj gia tang deu d mtfc thap hdn. Ndu nhif tang I ddng dau ttf cdng d Ha Ndi ehi thu dtfdc 1,17 ddng gia trj san xua't vd 0.38 ddng gia tri gia tdng, tbi con sd ttfdng iJng la 1,443 va 0,444 cho TP. Ho Chi Minh vd 1,860 vd 0,436 ddi vdi ea ntfde.
(2) Do lan tda cua tich ldy cdng cHo Hd Ngi cao hem so vdi tich ldy khde.
Xet trong cd eau tich luy edng yJ tieh luy khae cd the tha'y dp lan toa cua tich luy cong d Ha Npi cao hdn ch6t it so vdi tich luy ttf cdc khu vtfc khae. Mpi ddng tich luy cong cd the dem lai 0,3827
52
. Di/btoJdong gia trj gia tdng, trong khi I ddng tich luy ttf cdc khu vtfc khde ehi mang lai 0,3823 ddng gid tri gia tang. Ddy cung la xu htfdng eQa ciia TP. Ho Chi Minh khi dp lan tda ttf vdn cdng Thdnh phd ndy eao hdn dp lan toa ttf cde tich luy vdn khde (ttfdng tfng Id 0,4441 so vdi 0,43).
Kd't qua nay triing vdi nhdn dinh trong nghidn cifu quan he giiJa cdc viing kinh te trong didm bang bang can dd'i lidn viing cua TS Bui Trinh (2012).
Tuy nhidn, xet tren pham vi toan qud'c, tinh todn cho thd'y kd't qua ngtfdc lai khi dd lan tda eua tieh luy cdc ngudn vd'n khde cao hdn khd nhieu dd lan tda ttf tich luy vd'n edng. Dieu nay ed the eho thay nhihig gpi y nghidn etfu ve stf khde bipt giffa hidu qua dau ttf ciing nhtf stf phdt trien cdc loai hinh dau ttf gitfa cdc khu vtfc kinh te' trpng diem va cdc viing cdn lai.
KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGHI Cd the thd^y, sd dung bang I/O de ddnh gid hieu qua dau ttf cdng eua Ha Ndi cd nhieu tfu diem, trong dd tfu diem Idn nha^c la cd the phan dnh btfc tranh td't nha't ve todn bp hoat ddng san xud't cda nen kinh td'. Nd phan anh mdi quan he lidn ngdnh/lien viing trong qua trinh s^n xua^t va su" dung san pham cho lieu dung cud'i ciing, tich luy tdi san, xud't khau hdng hda vd dich vu cua toan bd nen kinh te, ddng thdi phan dnh quan hp ve phia thu nhap, sd lidu ve thu cua ngtfdi san xua't, Ihue sdn xud't, Ihang dtf vd khau hao deu Id nhffng sd lieu phan tich hd't stfc quan trpng khd cd phtfdng phdp ndo cd thd thay the. Ngodi ra, cdn cho phep tfdc ltfdng mtfc dp tae ddng cua cdc nhan to' ciu tdi sdn xud't vd lbu
nhdp, ttf dd xem xdt hieu qua cua mdl sd' yd'u to' trong tdng cau.
Tuy nhidn, trong dieu kidn ihtfc te dp dung bang I/O vao ddnh gia hidu qua dau ttf cdng eho Ha Ndi, ngodi nhffng nhtfdc diem cd' hCha cua bdng I/O, nhtf.
eham dtfdc cap nhat, khdng dtfdc loai bd yd'u Id' ve gid...
thi bang I/O Ha Ndi chtfa dtfde cap nhat hidn nay cdn nhilu han che do quy md Ha Ndi da thay ddi chtfa dtfdc cap nhdt trong bang I/O, ddng thdi tinh thd'ng nhal giffa cae sd lieu thdng ke ve vd'n edng va sd lieu trong bang I/O cdn thap. vi the anh htfdng dd'n khuyen nghj dtfa ra ttf tinh todn. Ngodi ra, do mdt sd nguyen nhan khach quan khae nhtf thdi gian, sd lipu... ndn nghidn ctfu I/O cua de ldi cdn mdt sdhan chd'.
Tuy cd nhffng ban che' nha't djnh, nhtfng ddy Id mdt trong nhtfng phtfpng phap djnh Itfpng cd ed sd khoa hpc vd dtfdc nhieu nghien cihi su" dung. Nhtfng ket qua ban dau dtfa ra khd kha quan khi triing khdp vdi nhffng nghidn ctfu quy md da dtfpc dd'n hdnh trtfdc dd. Tong ket eae tinh todn ttf bang I/O cd the dtfa ra mdt so nhan djnh ve tdc ddng eiia dau ttf edng Ha Ndi nhtf sau:
Tha nhdt, mtfc dp lan tda tdi nen kinh td' ctia dau ttf edng Hd Ndi thdng qua gid tri san xua't vd gid in gia tdng cdn ban che' so vdi cac yd'u to khde ttf phia eau vd so vdi TP. Hd Chi Minh cung nhtf ea ntfde. Dieu nay cung ehi ra mpt minh chtfng cho vide thtfc hidn chinh sach kich cau dau ttf Id mot trong nhu^g nguydn nhan chinh gdy ra lam phdt d Ha Npi thdi gian qua,
Tha hai, so vdi dau ltf cua cdc khu vtfe khde, dau ttf cdng cua Ha Ndi cd da'u hieu tich ctfc hdn, the hidn qua he so lan tda eua tich liiy cdng tdi san xud't vd thu nhap deu cao hPn. nhtfng day Iai Id xu the ngtfdc vdi ca ntfdc.
Ttf ede kd't luan nay cd the thd'y, hidu qua dau ltf cdng cua Ha Ndi chtfa dtfdc nhtf mong ddi, vl the' nhi?ng giai phdp nhdm tai ed cd'u dau ttf cdng can dtfdc diy manh hdn. Tuy nhidn, cung can can nhdc dd'i ttfdng ehiu tae ddng cua cdc ehinh sdch dieu hanh vi md ndi chung vd chinh sdch kieh cau ndi rieng nhdm tranh hidn ttfdng dau ttf lam lang gid vd day lam phat cao, trong khi dat dtfde hidu qua han che muc tidu thiic day san xua't, hd trd tdng trtfdng.Q
TAI LIEL THAM KHAO
I Tong cue Thd'ng kd (2008). Niin gidm Thd'ng ke Viet Nam ndm 2007
2. Nguydn Phtfdng Thao, Ngd Van Phong, Bui Tnnh (2014). Tdng cau cudi cung, san xua't va thu nhap cua Vidt Nam: Mot vdi so sdnh vdi Trung Qudc. Tgp chi Kinh te vd Du bdo, so 12
3. Bui Trinh, Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Trung - Dien Vu. Pham Le Hoa, Nguyen Viet Phong (2012).
New Economic Structure for Vietnam Toward Sustainable Economic Growth in 2020, Global Journal of HUMAN SOCIAL SCIENCE Sociology Economics &. Political Science, Vol. 12, Issue 10, Version 1.0,2012
4 Bui Trinh, Kiyoshi Kobayashi. Trung-Dien Vu (2011). Economic integration and trade deficit:
A Case of Vietnam, Journal of Economic and International Finance, Vol 3( 13), pp 669-675 5 Bui Trinh, Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Thai Nguyen Quang, Phong Nguyen Viet (2012). Multi- interreClonal economic impact analysis based on multi-interregional input output model considering of 7 regions "^ Vietnam, 2000. Joumal of Finance and Investment Analysis, Vol. I, Issue 2, pp.83-118
