LUONG THI THAO • PHAM VAN OOAN
Sif can thiep nha nifdc vao chfnh sach tai chinh cua cac doanh nghiep tai Viet Nam
Li/dng Thi Thao"^* Pham Van Ooan'"
Ngay nhan bai: 27/5/2016 | Bien tap xong: 02/3/2017 | Duyet dang: 10/3/2017
TOM TAT: Nghien cu'u nay kiem tra tac dpng tu" hai hinh thu'c can thiep cue nha Du'dc doi vdi chfnh sach tai chi'nh (CSTC) cua cac doanh nghiep dViet Nam - can thiep trUc tiep thong qua t y le sd hu'u va can thiep gian tiep thong qua phan chia cac vung kinh te trgng diem (KTTB). Bang cac ydc lu'dng cua mo hinh hoi quy hai giai doan (2SLS) va mo hinh bien gia binh phu'dng toi thieu (LSDV) vdi mau dD'lieu cua 315 doanh nghiep Viet Nam trong giai doan 2007-2014, ket qua nghien cu'u cho thay, hai hinh thdc can thiep nay cua nha nu'dccd tac dpng trai chieu doi vdi CSTC (don bay tai chi'nh, ky han nd, t y le nam giO' tien mat) va lam giam hieu qua hoat dpng cua cac doanh nghiep. Ben canh do, SLfdung each thi^c mdi la bien so ve khoang each dia ly, de xem xet mdc dp can thiep gian tiep cua nha Du'dc, nhdm tac gia ket luan, su" can thiep gian tlep giup han che tac dpng tu* su" can thiep trt/c tiep. Ngoai ra, t h i tru'dng trai phieu doanh nghiep (TPDN) phat trien se la nguon tai trd bo sung cho phep giam s i / phu thupc cua doanh nghiep vao nha nu'dc.
Til' KHOA: chi'nh sach tai chi'nh, can thiep trUc tiep, can thiep gian tiep, 2SLS
1. Gidi thieu doi vdi nhfing nen kinh te dang phat trien Cac hoc thuyet kinh te can dai va hien dai nhif Viet Nam thi siJ can thiep ciia nha nUdc tranh luan kha nhieu ve vai tro cua nha nUdc vao nen kinh te manh me hcfn. Nha nUdc can trong nen kinh te thi trUdng. Dang chu y la thiep vao nen kinh te bang nhieu each khac hoc thuyet kinh te ciia Keynes va trUdng phai nhau. Cac nghien ciiu ciia Shieifer va Vishny Keynes de cao sti can thiet can thiep va vai tro (1994). Gui (1999), Firth va ctg (2008), Li va cua nha niidc doi vdi n^n kinh te. Thtic te hien Zhao (2009), Chen va ctg (2011), Caprio va ctg nay tai hau het cac nen kinh te tren the gidi
cung chiing minh vai tro nay. Sii can thiep cua ^ _ ^ ^ _ ^ ^ ^
nha nudc vao nen kinh te d cac quoc gia khac - Lirdng Thj Thao - Tri/dng Oai hoc Kinh le TP.HCM;
nhau CO cac miic do va tinh hieu qua khac 279 Nguyen Tri Phiftfng, QIO, TP. Ho Chi Minh; Email:
nhau. 6 nhflng nen kinh te phat trien, cac he [email protected].
thong kinh le d do hoat dgng tilong doi tron
tru, hieu qur, mflc do can thiep cua nha nfldc T Pham Van Ooan - Trucfng Oai hoc Kinh te TPHCM, thap hdn c he thong kinh te d dd hoat dong 279 Nguyen Tn Phi/dng, 010, TP. Ho Chf Minh; Email:
chfla >!uo ^m tru, hi?u qua khong cao. Con [email protected].
S6132 Thang3.2017 TAP CHtC6N0NGHeNGAN HANG 7 3
SUCAKTHIEP NHA NUOc VAO CHINH S A C K T A K H I N H C U A C A C DOANH NGHIEP TAi VIET NAM
(2013) cho thay, cd hai phifong thdc can thiep chi'nh la: (i) can thiep tnic tiep thong qua ty le sd hflu nha nfldc (SHNN) d cac doanh nghiep;
(ii) can thiep gian tiep thong qua nhflng chinh sach flu dai rieng cho cac doanh nghiep trong cac vung KTTD.
Ngoai ra, cac nghien cflu tnidc chi chu trong den cac quyet dinh dau tfl hay tai trd rieng le ma it chu y den nhflng quyet dinh tai chinh tong hcjp cua doanh nghiep (Shieifer va \^shy, 1994;
Chen va ctg, 2011; Chen va ctg, 2013; Pessarossi va Weill, 2013).
Sau 30 nam doi mdi, Viet Nam da dat dfldc nhflng thanh tiiu quan trong ve cac mat cua ddi song Idnh te - xa hoi, nhflng quan ly nha nfldc cdn boc 16 nhieu han che Uen quan den dau tfl cong, quan Iy va sfl dung tai san cong, trong dd quan ly doanh nghiep nha nfldc (DNNN) con nhieu yeu kem, gay thiet hai ldn cho nen kinh te.
Nhflng doanh nghiep chiu sfl can thiep sau cua nha nfldc thfldng phai thtfc hien nhflng nhiem vu chinh trj hay xa hoi thay cho cac muc tieu kinh te. Sfl yeu kem cua cac tap doan, tong cong ty ldn thuoc SHNN da trd thknh van de thdi sfl thu hut sfl quan tam cua toan xa hoi. Tai Viet Nam, nhflng nghien cflu mang tinh chat tong the ve van de nay dfloc cong bo con rat han che, day la dpng life thuc day nhdm tac gia thfle hi^n bai nghien cflu nay.
Muc tieu cua nghien cflu nay nham xem xet tac dong tfl hai hinh thfle can thi?p nha nfldc den CSTC cua cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam va moi quan he gifla hai hinh thfle can thiep nay.
Ngoai ra, bai nghien cflu cung danh gia tac dong cua sfl phat trien thi trfldng TPDN doi vdi cac doanh nghiep. De dat dfldc muc tieu nghien cflu, nhdm tac gia tim cau tra ldi lan Ifldt cho nhflng cau hdi sau day:
(!) Mflc dp SHNN co tac dpng nhfl the nao doi vdi CSTC cua doanh nghiep?
(2) SHNN cd tac dpng khac biet nhfl the nao tdi cac doanh nghiep trong va ngoai vung KTTD thupc quan li cua chinh quyen trung fldng va chinh quyen dia phflong?
(3) Sfl phat trien thi trfldng TPDN cd giflp han che anh hfldng cua SHNN doi vdi doanh nghiep?
2. Ctf sor ly thuyet
2 . 1 . N h f i n g l y t h u y e l k i n h t e v e ^ ^ o c u a n h a nfldc
Thao luan ve vai tro cua nha nfldc trong nen kinh te, cac tnidng phai ldn trong lich sif tfl tfldng kinh te dfldc chia thanh hai quan diem chinh. Thfl nhat, quan diem de cao vai tro cua thi trfldng ciia cac trfldng phai co dien (William Petty, Adam Smith, David Ricardo), tan co dien (tfl Leon Walras, Alfred Marshall cho den cac trfldng phai trpng ti^n, trpng cimg, co dien mdi) va chu nghia tan tfl do (Walter Eucken, Alfred Muller-Armack, Ludwid Erhard, Friedrick von Hayek) cho rang nen kinh te thi trfldng cd sfl on dinh von cd thong qua cd che "canh tranh tfl do" giup bao dam sfl can bang chung cua nen kinh te.
Sfl can thiep cfla nha nfldc vao hoat dpng cua thi trfldng la can thi^t nhflng ciing chi dfl^c gidi han theo nguyen tac "thi trfldng nhieu hdn, nha nfldc can thiep it hdn." Thfl hai, quan diem de cao vai tro nh^ nfldc cua Keynes vi trfldng phai Keynes (John R. Hicks, Alvin H.
Hansen), chu nghia the ch^ (Wesley Mitchell), kinh te hpc phai ta (John K. Galbraith) vk kinh te chinh tri hpc cap tien cho rang, khdng co mpt ca chB tfl hanh nao co th^' thuc day n^n kinh te tfl bdn chii nghia den k h i nang sfl dung toan bd nguon nhan life va lam cho hoat ddng dau tfl tang Ien d^u dan. Do vlly, de nin kinh te binh on va thich flng vdi cac bien ddng thi sfl can thiep ciia nha nfldc Ik giai phap tat yeu.
Cach tiep can va quan diem If thuyet cua cac trfldng phai la khac nhau tuy thupc vao nhflng dac diem ciia kinh te thi trfldng d tflng giai doan lich sfl. nhflng bien co kinh te ldn trong tflng giai doan hoac stf khac biet ve dpng cd, l(?i ich giai cap dflng sau cac quan diem ly thuyet.
Tuy nhien, ngay nay, khong trfldng phai nao co the phu nhan hoan toan vai trd cua nha nfldc trong nen kinh te.
Sfl can thiep ciia nha nfldc vao nen kinh te hfldng tdi nhieu doi tfldng khac nhau nhflng chu yeu la doanh nghiep. Sfl can thiep nh^
nfldc mpt mat de ngan chan ho5c ban che cac tac ddng khdng mong muon do hoat dong cua
7 4 TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG | Thang3.2017 I So 132
LU0NGTHITHAO-PHAMVANDOAN
doanh nghiep gay ra, cdn mat khac, de ho trd doanh nghiep giai quyet nhflng van de rieng nhfl: thieu von, khd khan ve mat bang, cac han che ve cdng ngh? ciing nhfl ca che chinh sach, khudn kho phap ly. Hai hinh thfle can thiep chinh cua nha nfldc doi vdi doanh nghiep la:
(i) sfl can thiep trflc tiep thdng qua ty le sd hflu chi phoi von nha nfldc tai cae doanh nghiep, tfl dd dai dien nha nfldc tham gia trflc tiep quan ly hoac chi phoi boat ddng doanh nghiep (Shieifer va Vishny, 1994; Gui, 1999; Firth va ctg, 2008; Chen va ctg, 2011); (ii) sfl can thiep gian tiep thdng qua viec nha nfldc Ifla chpn cac vung KTTD la nhflng vung hpi tu day du nhat cac dieu kien phat trien, cd kha nang tao Idi the canh tranh, lam dau tau tang trfldng va cd nhieu chinh sach flu dai cho cac vung nay.
Tfl dd, cac doanh nghiep trong vung se dfldc hfldng nhflng tac dpng gian tiep tfl cac flu dai nay (Li va Zhao, 2009; Almazan va ctg, 2010;
Caprio vactg, 2013; Shao va ctg, 2014).
2.2. Cac nghien cflu thfle nghiem Ban ve tae dpng eua hai loai can thiep cua nha nfldc doi vdi ddn hiy tai chinh va ky han nd cua doanh nghiep, Shieifer vk Vishy (1986) cho rang doanh nghiep vdi nhieu chu sd hflu nho khong tra tien cho bat ki ai dieu hanh hoat dpng cua minh mpt each rieng Ie. Ben canh do, dfla vao ly thuyet rui ro thanh khoan. Diamond (1991) nhan dinh rjng, cac nha phat hanh nd ngan ban cd xu hfldng bi Idem soat nhieu hdn va cd rui ro thanh khoan ldn hdn trong nhflng lan phat hanh nd tiep theo. Do dd, cac doanh nghiip vdi ty le SHNN cao cd nhieu kha nang sfl dung nd dai han tfl eac ngan hang thudc SHNN de han che viec bi kiem soat va nii ro thanh khoan. Mat khac, theo Almazan va ctg (2010), eac doanh nghiep trong cac cum edng nghiep cd xu hfldng thfle hien mua lai nhieu hdn, cd ty le npi thap hdn va sd dfl tien mat Idn hdn so vdi cae doanh nghiep cung nganh ben ngoai cum cdng n g h i ^ . Ngoai ra, Myers va Majluf (19841 cung cho rSng, eac doanh nghiep d cac thanh pho va trung tam cdng nghe dang phat trien c'ng duy tri nhieu tiet kiem hdn de ddn ---an *^*"^ ^^ ^^^ ^^"8 trfldng. Tiep sau dd,
Shao va ctg (2014) eho thay, sfl can thiep tnic tiep thdng qua ty le SHNN dan den cac doanh nghiep sfl dung ddn bay tai ehinh cao hdn va ky han nd dai hdn, trong khi sfl can thiep gian tiep thdng qua phan chia cac vung phat trien kinh te cd tac dpng ngfldc lai va lam giam anh hfldng tieu cflc tfl sfl can thiep trflc tiep. Tren ca sd cac nghien cflu tren, hai gia thuyet dfldc dat ra cho tnidng hdp eae doanh nghiep tai Viet Nam:
Hia: doanh nghiep co ty le SHNN ldn hdn thi CO xu hudng sti dung don bay tdi chinh cao hdn vd nd co ky han ddi hdn.
H2a: doanh nghiep trong viing KTTD co xu hudng sii" dung don bdy tdi chinh thdp hdn vd nd CO ky han ngdn hdn so vdi cdc doanh nghiep ben ngodi.
Trong CSTC, viec n^m gifl tien mat giup doanh nghiep cd sfl linh boat ve tai ehinh.
Bates va ctg (2009) nghien cflu v^ tac dpng cua SHNN va cac dac diem doanh nghiep den Ifldng tien mat nam gifl toi flu nhfl cd hpi tang trfldng, rui ro ddng tien, chi tra co tde va kha nang tiep can thi trfldng von. Ket qua cho thay, doanh nghiep ed ty le SHNN cao thi de dang tiep can tin dung ngan hang thdng qua sfl ho trd eua nha nfldc, nen ton tai moi quan he nghich bien gifla Ifldng tien mat nam gifl va ty le SHNN. Caprio va ctg (2013), Shao va ctg (2014) ket luan ring cac doanh nghiep trong vung KTTD cd ty le ndm gifl tien mat eao hdn cac doanh nghiep ben ngoai. Tfl dd, hai gia thuyet ve can thiep cua nha nfldc den viee nam gifl tien mat dfldc thiet lap:
Hlh: doanh nghiep vdi ty le SHNN cao hdn CO xu hudng ndm giU it tien mat hdn.
Hlh: doanh nghiep trong vitng KTTD co xu hudng nam giU nhieu tien mat hdn cdc doanh nghiep ben ngodi.
Nghien cflu tac dpng cua sfl can thiep nha nfldc tdi quyet dinh dau tfl va hieu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep, Gui (1999) chi ra rang, eac cd hdi tang trfldng dfldc do Ifldng bang tap hdp eac cd hpi dau tfl cd tfldng quan thuan vdi chlnh saeh vay nd va chi tra eo tflc. Chen va ctg (2011) cho rang, bat can xflng thdng tin cflng nhfl sfl mau thuan gifla giam doe va cac nha
S6132 1 Ttiar>g3.2017 i TAPCHICbNGNGHeNG^NHANG 7 5
S(/CAN T H I E P N H A NUdc VAOCHfNHSACHTAICHiNK CUA CAC DOANH NGHICPTAI VltT NAM
dau tfl ben ngoai lam can trd viec doanh nghiep thfle hien cac dfl an dau tfl toi flu. Dong thdi, sfl can thiep cua nha nfldc doi vdi cae doanh nghiep quoe doanh thdng qua SHNN hoac sfl lanh dao bdi ngfldi dai dien nha nfldc se bdp meo hanh vi dau tfl va lam anh hfldng xau den hieu qua dau tfl. Tiep sau dd, Chen va etg (2013) ket luan r&ng, sfl can thiep ctia nha nfldc cd quan he tieh cflc doi vdi quyet dinh dau tfl cua doanh nghiep, tac dpng dd doi vdi DNNN cao hdn so vdi doanh nghiep tfl nhan trong nfldc va doanh nghiep nfldc ngoaL Nghien eflu nay cung eho thay rSng, hfldng thay doi cua dau tfl lam giam hieu qua dau tfl cua cac DNNN va cac doanh nghiep tfl nhan trong nfldc. Ben canh dd, Shieifer va \nshy (1994) eho rang, cac chinh tri gia can thiep vao doanh nghiep, bupc cae giam ddc phai hoi lp cho hp nham giup doanh nghiep khdng phai di theo cac muc tieu ma cac chinh tri gia da dat ra khien hieu qua hoat dpng eua doanh nghiep hi giam sut. Sun va etg (2002) cung chi ra, moi quan he gifla SHNN va hieu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep cd dang hinh ehfl U ngflpe. Cd nghia la, d mot mflc dp can thiep thdng qua ty le SHNN nhat dinh nao dd doi vdi doanh nghiep se la toi flu. Bang each tiep can mdi hdn, Kang va Kim (2012) cho thay r^ng, cac doanh nghiep thudc SHNN cd hieu qua boat dpng tot hdn eac doanh nghiep dflpc dieu hanh bdi nha nfldc va viec tfl nhan hda cae DNNN giup cai thien tinh hinh quan tri doanh nghiep. Shao va ctg (2014) eung chi ra, ca hai hinh thfle can thiep deu lam tang chi tieu von va giam hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep.
Ngoai ra, doanh nghiep dfldc sd hflu bdi ehinh quyen trung fldng chiu tac ddng rd ret hdn doanh nghiep thude sd hflu cfla ehinh quyen dja phfldng. Tfl dd, tae gia dat ra hai gia thuyet:
Hic: doanh nghiep co ty le SHNN cao hdn CO xu hudng chi lieu von nhieu hdn vd hieu qud hoat dgng kem hdn.
H2c: doanh nghiep trong vimg KTTD co xu hudng chi tieu von nhieu hdn vd hieu qud hoat dong kem hdn cdc doanh nghiep ben ngodi.
De cap den thi trfldng trai phieu, Pessarossi va Weill (2013) da phan tich eac yeu to anh hfldng den quyet dinh ve nd cua doanh nghiep
tren ca hai hinh thfle la trai phieu \ .i ~ ,tc khoan vay hdp von va tim thay bang chflng ung hp anh hfldng cua SHNN don quyet dinh tren do eae doanh nghiep thupc SHNN ^hi vay tren thi trfldng trai phieu, ehfl khdng khai thac ca hai thi trfldng nd. Ngoai ra, sfl can thiep chinh tri cua nha nfldc giup cae doanh nghiep thupc SHNN cd dfldc flu dai tiep can vdi thi tnidng trai phieu hdn la cac doanh nghiep khac. Hai tac gia nay cung eho rang, de ed dfldc mpt thi trfldng von h o i n hao hdn, tflc la von dfldc phan bo tot hdn cho nhieu doi tfldng khac nhau, mang tinh canh tranh cao hdn, giam thieu dfldc rui ro tin dung cho he thdng ngan hang thi nha nfldc can han che can thiep vao qua trinh phat hanh trai phieu. Dac biet, Shao va ctg (2014) da ehi ra rang, thi trfldng TPDN phat trien se cung cap nguon tai trd bo sung va Iam giam tac dpng eua can thiep nhk nfldc lfin don bay tai chinh cua doanh nghiep.
3. Mo hinh, phUtfng phap va du' li^u nghien cu'u
3.1. Md hinh va phfldng phap nghien cflu Nghien cflu nay se ke thfla phfldng phap nghien cflu eua Shao va ctg (2014) de xem x6t can thiep gian Uep thdng qua bien sd khoang each dja Iy dong thdi sfl dung hoi quy hai giai doan (2SLS) de khac phuc van de npi sinh gifla cac bien trong mo hinh. Trinh tfl nghien cflu dfldc tien hanh nhfl sau:
• Bflde 1: Kiem dinh hai gia thuyet H i a va H2a ve tac dpng cua sfl can thiep nha nfldc den don bay tai chinh va ky han nd cua doanh nghiep.
6 bflde nay, 2SLS dfldc sfl dung nham kiem soat moi quan he noi sinh gifla bien ddn bay tki chinh va bien ky han nd. 2SLS thfle chat la md hinh hoi quy vdi bien cdng cu, trong dd bien cdng eu la bien dfldc dfla vao md hinh hdi quy chinh vdi vai tro dai dien cho bien npi sinh de khac phuc hien tfldng npi sinh. Bien cdng eu thda man hai dieu kien: tfldng quan vdi bien ndi sinh va khong tfldng quan vdi phan sai so trong md hinh chinh. Bien ddn bay tai chi'nh dfldc fldc Ifldng trong giai doan mdt bang cac bien ngoai sinh va bien cdng eu, cdn bien ky
P C H ; C 6 N G N G H E N G A N H A N G | Thang 3.2017 So 132
LUONO THI TKAO • PHAM V A N DOAN
han nd dfldc fldc Ifldng trong giai doan hai, gdm ca bien giai thich ddn bay tai chinh de dfldc fldc Ifldng trong giai doan 1. Md hinh dfldc the hien nhfl sau:
Giai doan 1: LEV^, = a + p.ITV , + P^X., +
p,F[X,+ u_ + £, (1) Trong dd: LEV - ddn bay tai ciiinh cua
doanh nghiep i tai thdi diem t; ITV ^ do Ifldng sfl can thiep nha nfldc theo hai phfldng thfle:
trflc tiep thdng qua ty le sd hflu nha nfldc (GOWN) va gian tiep thdng qua vung kinh te trpng diem (KER). Moi bien se dfldc lan Ifldt thay the vao tflng md hinh; X.^^ - vec td cua cae biffn kiem soat bao gom quy md doanh nghiep (SIZE), tai san hflu hinh (TANG), kha n a i ^ sinh ldi (PRO), cd hpi tang trfldng (GRO), von iuan chuyen (NWC), chi tieu von (CAPEX), thue suat hieu Iflc (TAX) va kiet que tai chinh (DIST); FIX - tac dpng co dinh theo nganh la mdt vec td cac bien gia nganh nham kiem soat tinh khdng dong nhat gifla cac nganh. Yiec phan nganh eac doanh nghiep dfla tren tieu
chuan phan nganh toan cau (Global Industry Classification Standards) dang dtiac Sd Giao dich Chflng khoan (SGDCK) TP. Ho Chi Minh (HOSE) ap dung; u - anh hfldng dac trflng thdi gian, dfldc dfla vao md hinh de loai bd nhflng anh hfldng do thay doi dieu kien vi md theo thdi gian (Hsiao, 1986); e^ la sai so ngSu nhien.
Giai doan 2: D M A T , u + P.ITV,, + pjLEV^, + pjY^, + P / I X + il, + £^, (2)
Trong dd: LEV ^ - ddn bay tai chinh dfldc fldc tinh tfl giai doan mpt theo (1); Y ^ - vec td cua cac bien kiem soat bao gdm SIZE, DISTR.
De xac dinh chinh xac tinh he thong cua phfldng trinh thi d giai doan hai khdng xet tdi cac bien cdng cu TANG, PRO va NWC (Shao vactg, 2014).
• Bflde 2: Kiem dinh hai gia thuyet H i b va H2b ve tae dpng eua sfl can thiep nhk nfldc den ty le nam gifl tien mat cua doanh nghiep.
CASH , = a +p,ITV + P^CASH ,, + p^Z,, + p^FIX.+ u| + £^, ' '• (3) B a n g l : Mo ta cac bien
^ ^ K S I ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ H S I S S I I I ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ M I
Sdr hijru nha ni/dc (GOWN) GTW
GLC Viing KTTD (KER) Chi s6 nang idc canh tranh cap tinh (PCI) Ty te nam giCr tien mat [CASH)
Bi^n gia chi so nang IUc c?nh tranh c5p tinh (PCI dummy]
Don bay tai chinh (LEV)
Khoang cache: 3 ty (DIS)
La bien gia, nhan gia trj la l neu nha nUiJc scf hCfu >25%gia doanh nghiep, ngi/^c l^i se nhan gia tn 0. So lieu ve SHNN du'rfc lay t f l ban thuydt minh cua bao cao tat chi'nh va bao cao thu'dng nien cua cac doanh nghiep
SHNN trung u'dng SHNN dja phu'dng
La bien gia, nhan gia tri 1 neu tru sd chi'nh cua doanh nghiep trong vimg KTTD (hole mpt trong cac thanh pho dai dien cho cac viing KTTD], ng\Jdc lai th't bSng 0 La cht so CO gia tri trong khoang 0 va 100, gia tri cang ldn cho t h % miJcdp thj tru'cfng hoa cang Idn ciia tinh, thanh pho dUtfc xet. So lieu du'dc thu thap tir pcivietnam.org
Tien mat va dau tU ngin han Tong lai san
La bien gia c6 gia trj la 1 neu PCI cua 1 tinh nao do ma doanh nghiep tpa lac 6 trSn mO'c trung vi, ngu'dc lai 5§ nhan gia t n 0
No dai han -:- Nd ngan han Tong tai san
Binh quan gia quyen ciia khoang each dia ly tfnh bang km ti/v\ tri cita doanh nghi?p tdi 5 trung tam giao thong van tai chmh d Viet Nam (Ha N^i, Hai Phong, Da N5ng,TP.
Ho Chl Minh va Can Thd). Thudc do khoang each tren Google Map sS du'dc sfl dung de tfnh khoang each. Du" lieu ddpc lav loa.
S6132 Thang3.2017 ! TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG 7 7
sir CAK IHiep NHA NMCVAOCHINHSACHTAICHINH CUA CAC DOANH NGHICP TAI VIETNAM
Quy mo (SIZE)
Tai san hij'u hinh (TANG)
Kha nang sinh ldi (PRO)
Tang trifling (GRO)
Von luan chuyen (NWC)
Thi tru'dng trai phieu (BOND)
Riji ro d6ng tien (CFR)
Dong tien (CF)
Thue suit hieu iyc (TAX)
Chl tieu von (CAPEX)
Chitrac6tu'c{DiVP)
Kihannd(DMATl
Ki?tqu? tai chi'nh (DISTR)
— 1 Ln [gia tri s6 sach tdng tai sdn)
Tai san co dinh hiJu hinh r6ng Tong t i i san
[Tai san cd dinh hijfu hinh rong = tai san CO djnh hOru hinh -khdi hao m9 ^^^
Lai nhu^n thuan tii ho^t d^ng kinh doanh tnfctc khau hao Tong tai sdn
(Ldi nhuan thuan tir hogt dpng kinh doanh trudc khau hao
= Idi nhuan t h u i n + kh^u hao) Tdc do tang tru'dng doanh thu 1%)
V6n Iuan chuyen r6ng(NWC) T6ng t i i sin
NV^C = Tai san ngSn h^in - Nd ngSn h?n (trieu dfing)
La bien gia, nhan gia trj la 1 tir nam 2009 trd di, va nhan gia trj la 0 cho giai doan trUde do. Tac gia chon nam 2009 la cot mde danh dau sfl phat trien cua thj tru'dng trai phieu Viet Nam can cfl thdi diem 24/9/2009, thj trfldng trai phieu chfnh thu'c khai tru'dng di vao hoat dpng.
Do lech chuan cua dong ti§n trong vong ba n i m gSn nhat Thu nhap sau iai vay, co tiic
va thue nhdng trddc khau hao EAT - Co tile + Khau hao Tong t i i sin Tong t i i sdn
Chi phi thue Thu nhap trddc thue
Chi tifiu von T6ng t i i san
La bien gta, nh^n gia trj 1 neu doanh nghi?p tra co tflc, nh?n gla trj 0 neu kh6ng t r i CO tflc
No d i i han Tong no
La mpt chl so, tfnh theo cong thu'c (-0,737*size) + (0,043*size2) - (0,04*Age) (Hadlockva Pierce, 2008)
Trong do: CASH ^ - ty le nam gifl tien mat Clia doanh nghiep i tai th6i diem t; Z. - vec to cac bien kiem soat bao gom rui ro d6ng tien (CFR), dong Uen (CF), SIZE, LEV, chi tra c6 tile (DIVP) va DrSTR (Shao va ctg, 2014; Bates va ctg, 2009). De kiem soat do ben viing trong nam gia tien mat, bien tre mot ky cua bien phu thuoc dupc dUa vao phuong trinh dong vai tro nhif bien doc lap.
De khac phuc van de ngi sinh trong mo hinh (3), phUdng phap 2SLS dUOc si dung thay
cho Udc Iupng LSDV co han che la khong khac phuc dupc noi sinh trong nghign ciiu (Shao vi ctg, 2014).
• Budc 3: Kiem dinh hai gia thuyet Hic v4 H2c v^ tac dpng cua can thiep nha nUdc t6i quyet dinh dau ta (chi tieu von) va hieu quJ hoat dpng Clia doanh nghiep:
l/dc lupng LSDV dupc thUc hign vdi cic biln pb\f thupc la CAPEX v4 PRO, cd dang;
CAPEX,, = a +P,ITV, + P,M„ + PjFIX,+ u,
+ ^, (4)
78 rAPChiCONGNGHlNGANHANG | Thang 3.2017 1 So 132
Ll/ONGTHI THAO « PHAM VAN DOAN
Trong do: vec to Mi,t - vec tc* chiia cac bien Idem soat bao g6m SIZE, GRO. NWC, DIVP va DISTR (Shao va ctg. 2014).
PRO^ = a + p ^ n v , + P,Ny+p3HX,+u,+e,(5) Trong do: N - vec td cac bien Idem scat bao gom SIZE, GRO. NWC, LEV va DISTR (Shao vactg, 2014).
• Biidc 4: Xem xet anh hiicfng cua hai hinh thiic can thiep cua nha niidc trong dieu kien CO tac dong cua thi tnicfng TPDN. ThUc hien tiidng tu Budc 2 nhUng bo sung them bien gia BOND va bien tUcfng tac BONDxGOWN.
3.2. Mo ta dut lieu
Mau nghien ciiu bao gom 315 doanh nghiep niem yet thupc cac nganh khac nhau tai Viet Nam trong giai doan 2007-2014, gom 164 doanh nghiep niem yet tai HOSE, 138 doanh nghiep ni^ra yet tai SDGCK Ha Npi (HNX), con lai la cac doanh nghiep giao dich tren Upcom. Mau khong bao gom cac doanh nghiep tai chinh vi cac doanh nghiep nay thudng bi dieu chinh bang cac quy dinh rieng va cd cau triic bao cao tai chfnh dac trUng.
Dfl lieu dupc lay tii cac bao cao tai chinh va bao cao thudng nien Hen quan cua cac doanh nghiep. Nguon dii lieu dUpc thu thap tii cac website vietstock.vn va cophieu68.vn.
4 . K e t q u a n g h i e n cuTu va t h a o luan Bang2cho thay, tyle doanh nghiep V i a Nam cd SHNN dang ke chiem ty trong cao (51,7%).
Dac biet, cd tdi 85,7% cac doanh nghiep trong mau nghien o i u trong viing KTTD. Khoang each trung binh den nam trung tam giao thdng van tai ldn cuz cac doanh nghiep la 827.687 km. Mat khac, ddn bay tai chinh trung binh cua cac doanh nghiep d mdc 52,1% cho thay, cac doanh nghiep cd cau tnic vdn tham dung np. Tinh trung binh, cac doanh nghiep duy tri lupng tien mat khoang 16% so vdi tdng tai san. Xet ve cau tnic ky han cua np thi ty le np dai han tren tong tai san cua cac doanh nghiep tuong doi thap, chi khoang 18,6%.
Theo ket qua trong cot (1) Bang 3 ve tac ddng cua sU can thiep nha nUdc tdi ddn bay tai chinh, cac doanh nghiep ldn, cd nhieu tai san cd dinh hiiu hinh, hieu qua hoat ddng thap, von lUu ddng thap cd xu hUdng sd dung ddn bay tai chinh cao. Cdt (2) Bang 3 cho thay, nhflng doanh nghiep cd ty le SHNN cang ldn thi sii dung ddn bay tai chinh cing cao. Cdt (3) Bang 3 cho thay, ca sd hflu ciia chinh quyen trung Uong va sd hflu ciia chinh quyen dia phuong deu tUPng quan thuan vdi ddn bay tai chinh nhUng sd hflu ciia chinh quyen trung Uong cd tac ddng manh hon so vdi sd hflu cua Bang 2: Thdng ke mo ta cac bien cd ban
GOWN 1 KER
DIS (km) LEV CASH
SIZE PHO GRO NWC CAPEX
CF DIVP DMAT
0,517 0,857 827,687
0,521 0,160 1.258,917
0,113 0,124 0,208 0,051 0,106 0,846 0,186
1,000 1,000 814,400
0,550 0,092 1.258,500
0,093 0,119 0,187 0,020 0,087 1,000 0,090
0,500 0,350 63,944 0,215 0,680 726,798
0,116 0,529 0,217 0,120 0,111 0,359 0,222
0,000 0,000 799,000
0,203 0,012 252,500
0,016 -0,270 -0,052 -0,010 0,018 0,000 0,001
1,000 1,000 905,600
0,786 0,351 2.265,500
0,229 0,490 0,500 0,166 1 0,212 1,000 0,546 !
S6132 , mang3.20i7 I T«>CH[CONGNGH6NCANHANG 7 9
su CAM THItP ^1A mtSakO CHlNH SMHTAI CHINH CI)« CAC DOANH NGHlEPTAI VltT NAM
Bang 3: r a c d p n g c u a S l / c a n t h i e p n h a n U d c d e n d o n b a y t a i c h f n h v a i<
GOWN GTW
GLC KER DIS PCI ,., SIZE TANG PRO NWC TAX DISTR So quansat
R'
0,036—
(6,5901 0 , 0 2 2 - "
(4,400) -0,164—
(-7,220) - 0 , 4 3 5 " ' (-29,810) -0,002 (-0,370) -0,018- (-1,700)
2.201 0,234
0,021- (1,650)
0,035—
(6,340) 0,022—
(4,480) -0,165—
(-7,290) -0,434—
(-29,780) -0,002 (-0,370) -0,015- (-1,420) 2.201 0,236
0,034-*
(1,960) 0,012 (0,740)
0,035—
(6,320) 0,022"*
(4,520) -0,169—
(-7,460) -0,434—
(-29,800) -0,002 (-0,400)
-0,016 (-1,460)
2.201 0,236
-0,017- (-1,740)
0,036-*' (6,600) 0 , 0 2 2 * "
(4,400) -0,164"*
(-7,240) -0,434***
(-29,740) -0,002 (-0,370) -0,018*
(-1,660) 2.201 0,236
0,144"
(1,960)
0,036***
(6,570) 0,022***
(4,4101 -0,164***
(-7,240) -0,434***
(-29,780) -0,002 (-0,360) -0,018*
(-1,700) 2.201 0,235
i h a r n d FJE:? J ^ H
^ ^ ^ H
-0,007**
(-1,350) 0,036'**
(6,550) 0,022***
(4,420) - 0 , 1 6 3 " '
(-7,1901 (-0,435)*"
(-29,8201 -0,002 (-0,3201 -0,176' (-1,660) 2.201 0,234
chinh quyen dia phflong. Trong khi dd, ket qua trong cot (4) Bang 3 cho thay doanh nghiep trong vung KTTD cd xu hUdng sfl dung ddn bay tai chinh thap hon doanh nghiep ngoai viing KTTD. Ket qua nay phii hpp vdi Iy thuyet cho rang, cac doanh nghiep trong vimg KTTD dfl phdng nhieu tiet kiem de ddn chd cac ca hpi dau tu den tii nhflng Uu dai phat trien cua nha nfldc. Mot phat hien cua nghien cflu nay la doanh nghiep cang xa cac trung tam giao thong van tai ldn thi cd ddn bay tai chinh cang cao. So sanh cac ket qua trong cac cdt (2), (3), (4) cd the thay, sU can thiep tnic tiep va sU can thiep gian tiep cua nha nfldc cd tac dong trai
. . . '*•• the hien cac m^cy nghia lan tudt 10%, 5%, 1%.
chieu len viec sfl dung ddn bay tai chinh ciia doanh nghiep. Ket qua trong cpt (6) cung cd nhflng Iy thuyet khi chi ra, mflc dp phat triln the che cang cao thi doanh nghiep cd cang it nhu cau sfl dung np.
Theo kit qua trinh bay trong Bang 4 ve tdc ddng cua sfl can thiep nha nUdc tdi ky han np, nhflng doanh nghiep ldn, sfl d\ing ddn bay tai chinh thap va nhflng doanh nghidp dang trong tinh trang kiet que t4i chinh cd xu hfldng sfl dung n p dai ban. Doanh nghi?p cd ty 1? SHNN cang cao thi cd xu hudng sfl dung n p vdi ky ban cang dai. Tflong flng vdi ly thuyet, ket q u i nghien cflu thUc nghiem
8 0 -"PCHCONGNGHENGANHANG | Thang3.2017 1 So 132
LUONG THI THiO • PHAM VAN OOAN
Bang 4: Tac dpng cda si/can thiep nha ni/dc den don bay tai chi'nh va ky han nd
GOWN GTW GLC KER DIS PCI SIZE DISTR LEV TAX So quan sat
R"
IS^S
0,057***
(6,250) 0,014 (0,800) -0,168***
(-3,490) -0,010 (-1,210) 2.201 0,171
0 , 0 2 2 * ' (2,160)
0 , 0 5 6 * ' * (6,070)
0,017 (0,970) - 0 , 1 6 6 * "
(-3,460) -0,010 (-1,210) 2.201 0,173
0,026*- (2,170) 0,013 (0,500)
0 , 0 5 6 * * ' (6,060)
0,017 (0,970) -0,164«**
(-3,420) -0,010 (-1,210) 2.201 0,173
-0,032 (-1,130)
0 , 0 5 7 * "
(6,260) 0,015 (0,850) - 0 , 1 6 9 * "
(-3,500) -0,010 (-1,210) 2.201 0,173
0 , 2 2 3 "
(2,090)
0,057***
(6,270) 0,014 (0,790) -0,167**
(-3,480) -0,010 (-1,210) 2.201 0,172
-0,0004 (-0,05) 0 , 0 3 6 * ' *
(3,660) 0,137 (0,800) -0,169***
(-3,500) -0,010 (-1,210) 2.201 0,171 Tat ci cac hoi quy bao gom vec td tac dong co cfinh rfieo nganh, sai so chuan cft/tfc hi^u chinh theo ca khong gian va thdigian. Gia trj t-statistics dUdc the hien trong ngoac ddn. ', •', •*' the hien cac mt/'cy nghfa (an/i/dt W%,5%, 1%.
cho thay, cac doanh nghiep trong viing KTTD cd xu hudng sfl dung n p ngan ban va nhflng doanh nghiep cang xa trung tam sfl dung np vdi kj' han dai hon. SU can thiep trflc tiep va sfl can thiep gian tiep cua nha nfldc cung cd tac dpng trai chieu len ky han np cua doanh nghiep. Ket qua tren hoan toan phu hpp vdi hai gia thuyet H i a va H2a.
Ket qua trong Bang 5 cho thay sU phu hpp cCia hai gia thuyet H i b va H2b ve tac ddng cua sfl can thiep nha nfldc tdi ty^ le tien mat nam gifl.
Tflong tu cac ket qua nghien cflu trfldc, doanh nghiep cd chi tieu vdn it, ddn bay tai chinh thap va ddng tien ddi dao thfldng nam gifl nhieu tien mat. Ddng thdi, ket qua nghien cflu chi ra mdi tuong quan nghich gifla sfl can thiep nha nfldc ihdng qua sd hflu va ty le tien mat nam gifl ciia doanh nghi? ' Nhflng doanh nghiep cd ty le SHN" cao Iiudng cd quy tien mat nhd. doanh
nghiep thudc sU quan ly cua chinh quyen trung uong ndm gifl it tien mat hon doanh nghiep thupc sU quan ly cua chinh quyen dia phflOng.
Cac doanh nghiep trong vimg KTTD nam gifl tien mat nhieu hon cac doanh nghiep ngoai
^-ung KTTD. Nhfl vay, chieu tac dpng cua sfl can thiep nha nfldc trflc tiep ddi vdi viec nam gifl tien mat cua doanh nghiep trai ngflpe vdi tac dpng cua sii can thiep gian tiep.
Ket qua trong Bang 6 ve tac ddng cua sU can thiep nha nUdc tdi quyet dinh dau tU phu hpp vdi cac nghien cflu tnidc khi chl ra, cac doanh nghiep ldn, tang trfldng nhanh, cd it vdn luan chuyen thudng chi tieu nhieu vdn hon. NgUpc lai, cac doanh nghiep cd nguy ca kiet que tai chinh thap chi tieu nhieu von. SU can thiep trflc tiep cua nha nfldc tUPng quan thuan vdi chi tieu vdn. Tac ddng cua sU can thiep tfl chinh quyen trung UPng dUpc chflng
So 132 Thang 3.2017 TAP CHl CONG NGH£ NGAN HANG 8 1
Si; CAN THIEP NHA NUOC VAO CHlNH SACH T A K H I N H CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP TAI VICT NAM
Bang 5: Tac dong cua si/can thiep nha ni/t^c len ty le nSm gifftien rtiat cua doan'~ ghiep
GOWN
GTW GLC KER DIS PCI
CASH„_,
CFR CF
CAPEX
LEV DIVP
DISTR
So q u a n sat
1 «=
0,049'*
(2,230) 2 , 4 8 8 " * (9,400) 2,690***
(13,470) - 1 , 5 8 5 " ' (-10,020) -0,175"
(-2,510) -0,053 (-1,040)
0,008 (0,390) 1.890 0,2256
- 0 , 0 7 3 "
(-1,950)
0,048**
(2,210) 2,479*"
(9,020) 2,743***
(13,550) -1,590*"
(-10,060) - 0 , 2 0 7 "
(-2,240) -0,046 (-0,900) 0,027 (0,120) 1.890 0,2282
-0,084**
(-2,050) -0,043**
(-0,760)
0 , 0 4 8 "
(2,200) 2 , 4 8 5 ' "
(9,040) 2 , 7 5 4 ' "
(13,480) -1,585"*
(-10,050) -0,215*"
(-2,5101 -0,045 (-0,880)
0,004 (0,170) 1.890 0,2286
0,095*
(1,920)
0,049**
(2,270) 2,508***
(9,110) 2,714*"
(13,560) - 1 , 5 7 2 ' "
(-9,940) -0,189***
(-2,600) -0,057 (-1,110) 0,040 (0,190) 1.890 0,2276,
-0,674*
(1,620)
0,048**
(2,230) 2 , 7 4 7 " ' (8,980) 2,714***
(13,500) -1,580***
(-10,0001 -0,185'**
(-2,33) -0,056 (-1,090)
0,008 (0,400) 1.890 0,2266
! I
- 0 , 0 2 3 ( - 0 , 6 2 0 ) 0 , 0 4 8 * * ( 2 , 2 3 0 ) 2 , 4 8 9 * * *
( 9 , 0 4 0 ) 2 , 6 9 6 * * * (13,530) - 1 , 5 8 * * * ( - 1 0 , 0 4 7 0 ) - 0 , 1 7 2 * * * ( - 2 , 2 5 ) - 0 , 0 5 2 (-1,020) 0 , 0 0 9 ( 0 , 4 5 0 )
1.890 0 , 2 2 5 7 Hoi quy 2SLS vdi ty le nim giij^ Uen mat la bien phu thugc. Tat ca cac h o i quy bao gom vec td tac dong co dinh theo ngbnh, sai so chuan dUdc hieu chinh theo ca khong gian va thdi gian, gia trj t-statistics dUdc the hi$n trong ngo$c ddn.
*, * ' , ***thehiencacmi/cynghTalanli/dt10%,S%,1%.
minh la manh hon so vdi tac dpng cua sfl can thiep tfl chinh quyen dia phflong. Phu hpp vdi cac ly thuyet trfldc, ket qua nghien cflu cho thay, doanh nghiep trong viing cd the che phat trien chi tieu nhieu vdn hon.
Bang 6 ve tac ddng cua sfl can thiep nha nfldc tdi hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep phii hpp vdi cac nghien cflu tnidc khi chi ra, sU can thiep nha nfldc dfl vdi bat ki hinh thfle nao ciing lam giam hieu qua hoat dong cua doanh nghiep. Ngoai ra, doanh nghiep khdng trong tinh trang kiet que tai chinh cd hieu qua hoat
ddng tdt hOn. Nhfl vay, cac gia thuylt da neu trong Bflde 3 la h p p !y.
De \km rd hfln sfl tac dpng ddng thdi cua hai hinh thfle can thiep tren, mhi nghidn cflu tiep tuc dupc chia thanh hai mau nhd: mOt mau bao gdm cac doanh nghiep trong viing KTTD (270 doanh nghiip) vk mdt mau bao gdm nhflng doanh nghiep ngoai vimg KTTD (45 doanh nghiep) va sau dd, thfle hiln cac hoi quy tflong tU nhU phan tren cho hai mSu nhd nay Kit qua trong Bang 7 cho thiy, cdc doanh nghiep trong vimg KTTD chiu tac ddng
8 2 iAPCHiCONGNGHENGANHANG Thang3.2017 . S6132
L(fONG THI THAO * PHAM VAN OOAN
Bang 6: Tac dpng cua si/ can thiep nha r\iidc len quyet djnh dau t l / va hieu qua hoat dpng ciia cac doanh nghiep
B a n g A : O u y e t d i n h d a u t t / (Ho
GOWN
GTW
GLC
KER
DIS
PCI
j
SIZE
ORG i 1 NWC
r
i DIVP1 DISTR ' S o q u a n s a t
R=
GOWN
I GTW
GLC
KER
1 DIS
PCI
1 SIZE
GRO (1)
0 , 0 0 7 "
( 2 , 3 2 0 ) 0 , 0 0 3 ' * (2,120) - 0 , 0 8 1 —
( - 6 , 0 6 0 ) - 0 , 0 0 3 ( - 0 , 4 2 0 ) - 0 , 0 1 1 "
( - 2 , 2 8 0 ) 1.917 0,1340
0 , 0 1 3 * "
( 4 , 6 9 0 ) 0 , 0 0 5 * (1,940)
q u y L S D V v o i CAPEX l a b i l p p h M t h u p c ) i f c „ ( 2 ,
0 , 0 0 3 "
( 2 , 3 4 0 )
0 , 0 0 7 "
( 2 , 3 6 0 ) 0 , 0 0 3 "
(2,281) - 0 , 0 8 1 " *
( - 6 , 0 8 0 ) - 0 , 0 0 3 ( - 0 , 3 8 0 ) - 0 , 0 1 2 "
( - 2 , 3 3 0 ) 1.917 0,1341
- 0 , 0 2 9 " - ( 5 , 3 4 0 )
0 , 0 1 1 " - ( 4 , 0 8 0 ) 0 , 0 0 4 — ( 2 , 2 4 0 )
^ ^ • f l ^ ' ^ ^
0 , 0 2 1 "
( 2 , 3 2 0 ) 0 , 0 1 5 * (1,700)
0 , 0 0 7 "
( 2 , 2 9 0 ) 0 , 0 0 3 "
(2,310) - 0 , 0 8 0 " "
( - 5 , 9 8 0 ) - 0 , 0 0 4 ( - 0 , 4 6 0 ) - 0 , 0 1 2 "
(-2,370) 1.917 0,1357
- 0 , 0 3 7 " "
( 6 , 6 2 0 ) 0 , 9 3 0 (1,450)
0 , 0 1 V "
( 4 , 0 0 0 ) 0 , 0 0 5 - (1,780)
BKS^^
- 0 , 0 1 9 - * ( - 2 , 4 9 0 )
0 , 0 0 7 "
(2,410) 0 , 0 0 3 "
( 2 , 5 5 0 ) - 0 , 0 7 8 " '
( - 5 , 8 4 0 ) - 0 , 0 0 4 ( - 0 , 4 0 0 ) - 0 , 0 1 1 "
(-2,1800) 1.917 0,1368
( 5 .
0 , 1 2 0 "
(2,730)
0 , 0 0 7 ' * * (2,270) 0 , 0 0 3 * (1,960) - 0 , 0 8 1 * "
( - 6 , 0 6 0 ) - 0 , 0 0 3 ( - 0 , 4 0 0 ) - 0 , 0 1 1 "
( - 2 , 2 5 0 ) 1.917 0 , 2 3 6 2
. 6 ,
0 , 0 1 5 - (1.890) 0 , 0 0 7 * * * (2,320) 0 , 0 0 3 ' - ( 2 , 5 0 0 ) - 0 , 0 8 1 " '
( - 6 , 0 4 0 ) - 0 , 0 0 3 ( - 0 , 4 2 0 ) - 0 , 0 1 2 "
(-2,270) 1.917 0 , 2 3 5 4
i t h u o c ) 1
- 0 , 0 2 6 " * ( - 3 , 5 7 0 )
0 , 0 1 3 — ( 4 , 8 5 0 ) 0 , 0 0 3 "
(2,210)
0 , 2 9 6 " * ( 3 , 8 2 0 )
0 , 0 1 3 — ( 4 , 5 6 0 ) 0 , 0 0 4 * (1,950)
0 , 0 0 5 ( 0 , 8 6 0 ) 0 , 0 1 3 — (4,630) 0 , 0 0 5 "
(2,150)
Si: 132 t Thang3.2017 i TAP CHI CONGNGHf NGAN HANG 8 3
51/CAN THIiP NHA NKlJCVAO CHINH SACHTAl CHlNH CUA CAC DOANH NGHlCPTAI VlCT NAM
NWC
DIV
DISTR
So q u a n s a t R'
0 , 0 1 5 (1,050) - 0 , 2 0 2 —
(-13,160) - 0 , 0 2 7 — ( - 2 , 8 4 0 ) 1.917 0 , 2 4 0 1
0,017 (1,130) - 0 , 2 0 4 * * ' ( - 1 3 , 4 0 0 ) - 0 , 0 2 2 * « ( - 4 , 8 3 0 )
1.917 0 , 2 5 1 5
0 , 0 1 4 (1,000) - 0 , 2 1 2 * * * ( - 1 3 , 8 9 0 ) - 0 , 0 2 3 * * * •
( - 4 , 9 6 0 ) 1.917 0 , 2 5 9 7
0,019 (1,260) - 0 , 2 0 3 ' * "
(-13,240)
^ - 0 , 0 2 6 * * * (-5,740)
1.917 0 , 2 4 5 2
0 , 0 1 9 (1,070) - 0 , 2 0 3 * "
(-13,270) - 0 , 0 2 6 * * * ( - 5 , 7 8 0 )
1.917 0 , 2 4 6 0
— 1
0)___
- 0 , ^ 0 0 - * * ( - 1 2 , 9 2 0 ) - 0 , 0 2 7 * * * ( - 2 , 8 7 0 )
1.917 0 , 2 4 0 4 Tat ca C3C h d i quy bao gom vec td tac dqng codinh theo nganh, sal so chuSn du'dc hieu chinh theo ca khong gian vi thdi gian. Gia trj t-statistics dddc the hien trong ngoac ddn. *, **, *** thS hi$n cac mifc y nghTa lan Iddi 10%, 5%, 1%.
Bang 7: Tac dong dong thdi ciJa sir can thiep tri/c tiep 1 LEV
GOWN
GTW
GLC
C O T S ' - ( 2 , 4 5 0 ) 0 , 0 1 1 - * "
12,540) 0 , 0 0 6 - "
(2,730)
DMAT 1 CASH
va gian tiep cija nha nu'dc
CAPEX P « 0
TTB 1 0 , 0 3 0 "
(2,150) 0 , 0 1 2 "
(2,100) 0 , 0 0 8 (1.760)
- 0 , 0 5 8 "
(2,250) - 0 , 0 0 5 * (1,900) 0 , 0 2 2 (1,005)
0 , 0 0 6 * (1,870) 0,013 (1,250) 0 , 0 0 4 * (1,882)
0 , 0 3 1 - (2,110) 0,122 (1,150) - 0 , 7 7 3 (0,102) B i n g B: d o a n h n g h i e p n g o a i v u n g KTTD
GOWN
GTW
GLC
0 , 0 3 T - 12,550) 0 , 0 5 6 " * (2,190) 0 , 0 1 2 - "
"(2,600)
0 , 0 2 6 "
(2,100) 0 , 0 5 0 * "
( 2 , 8 0 0 ) 0 , 1 0 0 * "
(2,700)
- 0 , 0 2 3 * (1,550) - 0 . 0 0 9 - (1,770) 0,011 (0,083)
0 , 0 0 7 - - ( 2 , 2 6 2 ) 0 , 0 1 3 * (1,850) 0 , 0 0 5 * (1,910)
- 0 , 2 2 3 * (1,870) - 0 , 0 7 2 * (1,750) - 0 , 0 0 1 (1,210) Tat ca cac hoi quy bao gom vec td Tac dong co dinh theo nganh; sai so chuan dttdc hi^u chinh theo ci khong gian va
thdi gian Gia trj t-statistics di/dc the hien trong ngoac ddn. * **, * * * the hien cac m u ' c y nghTa lin lifdt 10%, S%, 1%
tii SHNN it hon so vdi cac doanh nghiep ngoai vung KTTD.
Bang 8 cho thay khi thi triTdng TPDN khdi sac hpn tii nam 2009 thi da gdp phan han che dapc tac dgng tii SHNN Ien ddn bay tai chinh va ky han no cua cac doanh nghiep.
Mat khac, thi trUdng TPDN tac dong len nhdm doanh nghiep cd phat hanh trai phieu manh hon so vdi cac doanh nghiep khdng phat hanh trai phieu (miic binh quan doanh nghiep tii nam 2009). Thj trUdng TPDN da cung cap ngudn tai trtf thay the va qua dd giiip cac doanh nghiep hnh hoat htfn trong viec tim kiem ngudn tai trtf va giam sti le thudc vao nha nildc.
5. Ketluan
Phan tich tac dgng cua sU can thi?p nha nddc den CSTC ciia cac doanh nghiep niem yet tai Viet Nam cho thay, quyet dinh t ^ chinh ciia cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam bi chi phdi vdi ckc tinh chat khac nhau tii hai hinh thiic can thiep cHa nha nUdc. Neu hinh thdc can thi|p trUc tiep thdng qua SHNN diitfc tang cUdng khi£n cac doanh nghiep sti dung ddn hiy tii chinh cao htfn, ky han n o dai htfn vk n4m giii it tien m^t htfn thi hinh thiic can thi^p gian tiep thdng qua lUa chpn viing KTTD lai cd tac ddng ngiltfc lai. Su can thi^p tii SHNN trung Utfng cd t^c dong manh htfn so vdi sU can thiep ti! sd hQu d dia phUOng va ca hai hinh thiic can thi?p
8 4 "'.P CHl CONG NGHE NGAN HANG | Thang3.2017 | S 6 l 3 2
LUONG TH! THAO * ^HAM VAN OOAN
deu lam giam hieu qua hoat dpng dia doanh vdn ciia cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam trong nghiep. Ddng thdi cd mpt so phat hien mdi nhd vimg KTTD thap htfn so vdi cac doanh nghiep khi nghien ciiu ve quyet dinh dau tif va nam giii ngoai vimg KTTD. Ket qua nghien ciiu ciing tien mat ciia doanh nghiep, cac doanh nghiep cho thay, hinh thdc can thiep gian tiep cua Nha Yiet Nam cd rui ro ddng tien cao htfn khi nam nUdc Viet Nam gdp phan lam giam lac dpng tii giii tien mat nhieu htfn va cac doanh nghiep sd can thiep trdc tiep, cac doanh nghiep cang khdng trong tinh trang kiet que tai chinh cd gan vimg KTTD thi chiu tac dpng tii SHNX hieu qua hoat ddng tdt htfn. Ngoai ra, chi tieu cang it htfn so vdi cac doanh nghiep khac.
(Xem tiep trang 109)
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S6132 : Thang3.2017 TAPCHtCONGNGHENGANHANG 8 5
su CAN THIEP NHA N U f t v i o CHIKH SACH TAI CHlNH CUA CAC DOANH NGHlfP TAI VltT NAM
State intervention on corporates financial policies in Vietnam
Luong Thi Thao"' Pham Van Doan™
Received; 27 May 2016 I Revised: 02 March 2016 I Accepted: 10 March 2017
ABSTRACT: This stuciy aims to examine the impact of the two forms of state intervention on Vietnamese corporate financial policies: direct intervention through government ownership and indirect intervention t h r o u g h allocating key economic areas (KEAs). The data on the sample of 315 Vietnamese firms in the period from 2007 to 2014 were analyzed, using 2SLS and LSDV estimation.
The findings show that these two forms of government intervention have opposite effects on corporate financial policies (financial leverage, debt maturity and cash holding ratio) and that both of them are related to higher capital expenditure and poorer performance. In addition, by applying a geographical distance variable to examine how indirect intervention affect corporate decisions, this study shows that Indirect intervention can help mitigate the adverse effects of direct intervention on corporate financial policies. It was also found that the development of corporate bond market will provide additional funding for corporations to reduce their reliance on the government.
KEYWORDS: financial policies, direct intervention, indirect intervention, 2SLS
53 LuongThiThao Email: [email protected].
Pham Van Doan
Email: [email protected].
I'l University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City 279 Nguyen Tri Phuong. Dis:ncl 10, Ho Chi Minh City 1:1 University of Economics Ho Chi Mmh City 279 Nguyen Tri Phuong, District 10, Ho Chi Mmh City
8 6 TAPCHICONGNGHENGANHANG I Thang3 2017 S6l32
