Tgp ehi Khoa hoc Tmdng Dgi hgc Cdn Tho Phdn D. Khoa hge Chinh Iri. Kinh ti vd Phdp lugt: 35 (2014): 97-1(0
Tap chl Khoa hpc Tru'dng Oai hgc Can Thd website: sj.ctu.edu.vn
CAC NHAN TO ANH HXTONG DEN QUYET DINH THAM GIA BAO H I E M TOM NUOI CUA H O NONG DAN TAI T I N H BAC LIEU
Phan Dinh Khdi' va Quach Vu Hiep-
' Khoa Kinh te & Qudn tri Kinh doanh. Trudng Bai hoc Cdn Tha
^ Sinh vien ngdnh Tdi chinh - Ngdn hdng, Trudng Dgi hoc Cdn Tha . . ABSTRACT Thong tm chung:
Ngdy nhdn: 14/08/2014 Shrimp farming is subject to high risks including natural disasters and Ngdy chdp nhdn. 31/12/2014 diseases which hammer shrimp farming's income. To mitigate the consequences of shrimp farming risks. Decision 315/2011/QD-TTg was Title: issued to conduct a pilot program on shrimp farming insurance for the period Determinants of of 2011-2013 in Bac Lieu and other 2 provinces in the Mekong River Delta, households' decision to The evaluation of the pilot pro-am after 2 years showed that the number of purchase insurance for households insured is still low compared with the potential Hence, this study shrimp farming in Bac aims to analyze the determinants of shrimp farmers' decision to participate in Lieu Province the pilot pro-am on shrimp farming insurance in Bac Lieu province. The
result shows that government employees, access to information of shrimp Td khda: farming insurance program and farm size are positively associated with Quyet dinh tham gia, Bdo shrimp farmers' decision to participate in the shrimp farming insurance hiem. Nudi tdm. Bgc Lieu program. In addition, the result shows that characteristics of shrimp farmers
such as education level are less likely to participate in the insurance Keywords: pro-am. The results also show that the characteristics of shrimp farmers Decision lo purchase. such as gender, training, years of experience, status of borrowing, and Insurance, Shrimp shrimp farming costs do not significantly i^ecl households' decisions to farming, Bac Lieu participate in the insurance pro-am for shrimp farming.
TOM TAT
Hogt ddng nudi tdm d thudng phdi ddi mat vdi nhieu rui ro nhu thien tm hay dich binh ldm dnh hudng din kit qud cOa hogt dgng nudi tdm. Di gidm thieu thiit hgi do hii ro trong hogt dgng nudi tdm. Chinh phit da ban hdnh Quyet dinh 315/20J 1/QD-TTg di thtec hien thi diim bdo hiim tdm nudi giai dogn 2011-2013 tgi Bgc Lieu vd 2 tinh khdc d Ddng bdng sdng Ctru Long. Ddnh gid ve chuang trinh thi diim sau 2 nam thee hiin cho thay sd hg nudi tdm tham gia bdo hiim ldn dien tich nuoi tdm duac bdo hiem cdn rdt thdp so vdi muc tiiu. Bdi viit ndy phdn tich cdc nhdn to dnh hudng din quyit dinh tham gia bdo hiim nudi tdm cua cdc hg Id ddi tugng dugc tham gia chuang troth thi diim bdo hiem nudi ldm d tinh Bgc Liiu. Kit qua chi ra rdng cd moi tuang quan thugn giiia lam viec tgi dia phuang vd tiep can thong tin bdo hiim. vd diin tich ao nudi vdi quyit dinh Iham gia bdo hiem cda ndng hg.
Ngodi ra. kit qud phm tich hdi quy cOng cho thdy yiu Id trinh dg hgc vdn cdng cao co xu hudng it tham ^a vdo logi hinh bdo hiim ndy. Kit qud nghiin cuu cSng cho thdy cdc dgc diim cda hg nhu yiu Id giai tinh. tgp hudn. kinh nghiim, vay vdn, vd chi phi sdn xudt khdng cd y nghia thdng ki trong quyet dinh tham gia bdo hiem ldm nudi.
97
Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tmdng Dgi hgc Cdn Tho Phdn D: Khoa hpe Chinh tri, Kinh ti va Phdp lugt: 35 (2014): 97-104 1 D^T VAN BE
Nudi tdm giu vai ttd quan ttgng ttong nganfa nudi ttdi^ tfauy sdn cua tinfa Bac Lieu, vdi faan 95% tong dien ticfa nudi ttdng tfauy sdn ciia tinfa.
B^ic Lieu failn tiling tfaii faai vl sdn lugng tdm ciia ci nude, vdi tdc dp tdng trudng sin lugng dn djnh binfa quan 5% mdi nam. Tuy nfailn, faoat ddng nudi tdm pfadi doi mat vdi nfaiiu riii ro cfaii ylu do dnfa hudng ciia tiidi tilt vi dich binh. Nam 2012, toan tinh Bac Lieu cd kliodng 17.305 ha dien tich nudi tdm hi nhiem binh vd nfailm khuin, ttong dd cd gin 5.000 ha bi mdt trdng (Tdng Cue Thdng Ke, 2012). Thyc tl ttin ddi hdi phdi cd mot ca cfal giiip giim thilu thiet faai do riii ro cho faoat ddng nudi tdm di on dinfa nghi nudi tdm eho ndng ddn ttong tuih.
Di giim thilu thilt h^i do riii ro ttong san xudt nfing nghiip bao gdm null trdng thuy sdn, Chinh phii ban hdnh Quyit dinh 315/QD-TTg tiiyc hiln Chuang ttinh thi diem Bdo hilm ndng nghiep giai do^n 20I1-20I3, ttong dd Bac Lilu dugc chpn Id m$t ttong nhimg tinfa thinh ttien khai cfauong trinh thi diem bio hiem nudi tdm. Myc tiiu ciia chuong ttinh thi diim bao hiem nudi tdm li nhdm tao ra m^t kliudn khd phap 1^ de trien khai rpng rai hoat d§ng bdo hilm trong ndng nghiep. Ngi dung ciia chuang trinh thf diim bio hiim la ea sd dl tiin tdi xic dinh ca che hoat dgng ciia bio hilm nudi tdm va chinfa sich hd ttg cQa Nfad nude ddi vdi ngudi nuoi tdm. Ddng thai Chuang ttinfa faudng tdi tao dilu kiln cho ngudi din tiip c ^ dugc vdi cdc hinh thiic bio hiem tfaeo nguyin tdc ty nguyen, ndng din tham gia tiidng qua vile ddng pfai bio hilm vi dugc din bii tdn tiiat khi thiin tai hoac dich benh xiy ra.
Tuy nhiin, Bao cdo tong ket sa bd ciia chuang ttinh thi diim bio hiim nudi tdm cho tfaay ti 11 hd tham gia bio hilm nudi tdm cdn tfaip (cfaiim 19,82%) so vdi tdng so fad nudi tdm (Sd NN&PTNN Bac Lieu, 2013). Vi vgy, vin dl dat ra li tai sao bio hiem nudi tdm chua thdt sy di vdo ho^t dpng sin xudt ciia cCia h<i nudi tdm. Bdi vilt nay nhdm muc tiiu phdn tich cdc nhdn td anfa hudng den quyit djnh tiiam gia bdo hilm nudi tdm ciia ndng hd tai tinh B^c Lilu. Tir dd, bai viet ky vpng gdp pfadn cung cip ngudn thdng tin quan ttgng cfao Ban chi d^o cic cip, cdng ty bdo hiem de dilu chinfa, xdy dyng chuang ttinh bdo hilm nudi tdm hi^u qud han trong thdi gian tdi, ciing nfau tao thudn lgi cho vile md rgng dich vu bdo hilm tdm nuoi t^i nhilu dja phuang.
2 PHirONG PHAP PHAN TICH 2.1 Md hinh ly thuyet
Quylt dinh lya ehpn tfaam gia cfauong trinh bao hiem ndng nghiep xudt phit tu nhu ciu dim bdo Igi ich cho faoat ddng san xuit eiia hg. Vi sin xuit ndng nghiip chiu nhilu nJi ro va miic dd thilt hgi do nii ro thay ddi theo diiu kiln tfadi tiit va thj trudng. Trong do, nfaihig tic d§ng tii nii ro ttong sin xudt Iam biin ddng dang kl din tfau nfaap cua hO tir dd lim inh hudng din phiic lgi ciia fad.
Binswanger (1980) efai ra ring ndng dan tfaudng sg nil ro vi vi tfai fag cd gdng ban cfai nii ro thdng qua cdc cdng cu vd faoat ddng qudn ly nii ro, kfai dd bio hiim ndng ngfailp li m^t cdng cu tfaudng dugc dung di han che thilt hai do nii ro ttong sdn xudt, giiip dn djnh thu nhap ciia ndng din.
Quylt dinh tfaam"gia"chuang ttinli bio hiim cdn phy thudc vdo miic dp phdt trien cua thi trucmg bio hiim. Trong dilu kiln thj trudng bdo hilm cfaua pfadt ttiln, cung bdo faiim cfao fad ndng dan hi gidi ban va faoat ddng cung img dicfa vu bdo faiim khdng cfai dan tfaudn dya ttin nliu ciu bii ddp thilt hai ttong sin xuat md con pfau thugc vio miic dO tiiong tin bdt can xiing ttong tiii trudng bdo faiim.
Bat can xirng thong tin giiJa ndng hp va cdng ty cung cap dich vu bdo hiem dan den vdn dl lya efapn bit lgi vd riii ro dgo diic . Just, Calvin vd Quiggin (1999) kit ludn rdng lya cfagn bat lgi li mgt nguyin nhan quan ttgng ngdn cdn cdng ty cung edp bdo hiem cfao ndng din. Lya cfapn bit lgi xiy ra khi ngudi cd nhieu khd nang gap nii ro co xu faudng tfaam gia bdo hilm nfaiiu hem, ttong khi dd cdng ty bdo faiim dp ddt mtic pfai do thdng tin han chi. Vi thi, nhiing ngudi mua bao hiem thudng corxitehudTg^nhgnsdug^- tiin boi thudng nfaleii hdnTTdng' ^^&ao Hilm se"gdnh efaiu ton thit.
Nlu ning miic phi de ttinh sy that bgi ciia tfaj trudng, kit qud din din cfauong ttinfa bdo faiim chi bao gdm nfaiing ngudi ddng y tta phi bdo hiem eao dl nfain dugc lgi ich tuy^t ddi tii vile bio hiem.
Mat kfaic, Cfaambers (1989) cfao rang riii ro dao diic ed dnh hudng ddng kl din quyet dinh eung bdo hiem, dac biet ddi vdi hogt ding giam sat vd bdi thudng thilt hgi. Riii ro dgo diic liln quan den vile ngudi tham gia bao hiim thay ddi hanfa vi ttong hogt ddng sin xudt nhdm muc dicfa ldm tang xdc suit xay ra sy kiln bdo hilm hodc muc do ngfailm ttgng ciia sy mdt mat. Kit qua Id cdng ty bdo faiim se gdnfa efaiu tdn thdt cfao ngudi mua bdo faiem vd dan din thit bai cda thi ttudng.
Khung phdn tich de nghien ciiu quyet dinh
Tgp chi Khoa hge Tmdng Dgi hgc Cdn Tha Phan D: Khoa hoc Chinh trj, Kinh li vd Phdp lugl: 35 (2014): 97-10 tham gia bdo hiim ciia hd nudi tdm dugc dua tren
gid dinh ring cde ndng hd tdi da hda huu dung ky vgng (expected utility) thdng qua viec lua chpn cac nfain td san xuit, kl ca pfai bdo hiim tdm nudi, ttong diiu kiln ngudn lyc kfaan faiem vd cdng ngfal sdn xuit bi gidi hgn (Sherrick, Barry, Elluiger &
Schnititey, 2004). Di di din quyit dinh cd mua bdo hiim cho tdm nudi hay kfadng, cdc ndng hd se so sanh miic dp faiiu dyng giiia vile mua v i khdng mua bio hiim vd chpn pfauong in cd miic do hiiu dung cao nhit. Ndi cich khdc, hd se udc lugng miic tiiu diing cd thi dat duge cfao timg trudng hgp va so sdnfa chiing voi nhau. Gia su vdi miic tiiu diing tdi thiiu W de ddm bdo miic phiic lgi co bdn ciia ndng hg, Rue (2009) chi ra ring miic tiiu diing cd tfai dat dugc cua hg i khi mua bio hilm tdm nudi se Id:
+ fl,l (1)
Trong dd R, Id doanfa tfau, C, li chi phi, r la phi bdo hiem va TI li gii tti ky vpng dugc bdi thudng khi riii ro xdy ra tdm nudi; a, Id gid tti tdi sdn vd cdc khodn thu nhip khde. Ngugc lai, neu khdng mua bio hiim tdm nudi, miic tieu dung cd the dat dugc ciia hd si la:
W, = Max[W . a,] (2)
Be dua ra quylt dinh mua bao hilm cho tdm nuoi hay khdng, hp si so sdnfa w, vdi w,- , ddng thoi hp ciing ddnfa gid mirc dg efade chan ciia cde khd nang. Nfau vdy, ngodi tfadi dp ddi vdi nii ro, cde ylu td anh hudng den quyet dinfa mua hay khdng mua bao hilm, choJ6iiL,nudi„ciia hO chinfa la cic
/
ylu to dnfa hudng din miic tiiu dimg ed the dgt duge ciia hd (w/ vd w? ) ttong eic phuang ttinh (I) va (2). Huy, Khdi vd Nguyet (2014) chi ra rdng cdc yiu td inh hudng quyit dinh mua bdo hilm cho sin xudt ndng ngfailp tfaudng bao gdm d§c diim cua h^, die diim cua hoat dgng sdn xuat, miic phi bdo hiim, miic din bii md fad cd kha ndng nhdn dugc va cdc ylu td td chiic sdn xudt kfadc.
Niu gpi Xj li vec ta cac biln giii tfaiefa cho cdc yiu td dnh hudng din miic tieu diing cd thi dgt dugc d phuang ttinfa (1) vd (2), vd k^ hiiu Aw, = w, - W, Id sy khic bilt vi miic tieu diing cd the dat dugc nay, md hinh phin tfch cd thi duge viet nhu sau:
A w ' = j . ; ^ + £, (3) trong do f, Id dai lugng sai sd nglu nfaien dm
diln cfao ylu td kfadng quan sat dugc nfaung cd dnh huong len Aw,-, v i /? la cic tham sd ctia md fainfa can phai udc lugng.
Vi miic chinh licfa v l tieu diing Awy khdng quan sat dugc cho timg hp, viec udc lugng cdc he s6 /J thdng qua md hinh hdi quy tuyen tinh khdng thi tfayc hiln dugc. Tuy nhiin, quylt dinh cd tham gia hay khdng tham gia bdo hiim cua h$ lgi quan sat dugc vi viy md fainh udc lugng vdi bien phy thupc li biln nfai pfadn tfaudng dugc dp dyng trong trudng h ^ ndy. Cy the. Aw, dugc do ludng thdng qua biln phu thupc /,- nhu sau:
, do' la fap tfaaiffgia bao hiem nudi tdm, neu Aw, > 0 ;
0, dd Id fad khdng tham gia nuoi tdm, niu Aw, < 0 . (4) Do biln phu thudc /,- la bien nfai pfadn dugc
quan sat (nfaan mdt ttong hai gii tti 0 vi 1), va nlu
£^ la dgi lugng sai sd ngiu nhiin dOc lip duoc gid dinh tuin tfaeo quy luat pfain pfadi logistic chuin (standard logistic distribution), cic hi sd ^ cd thi dugc udc lugng thdng qua md hinh hdi quy xde suit (binary logistic). Trong do, xdc suit dl hp tham gia bdo faiim nudi tom dugc bilu diln qua cdng thuc sau:
Pr<7- = 11 a:) = ft-{Aw* > 01 Jc) = Pr(xfj/} + £j > 0)
Trong dd, G,-(-) la hdm pfadn phdi ti'ch lily (cdf), vdi g,{-) Id hdm mat dp phdn phoi (pdf). Tuy nfaien, vile true tilp sii dung cdc fae sd ude lugng p de gidi thich y nghia cua md hinfa kfad khd.
Thdng thudng, hieu iing biln se dugc tinh todn vd dugc sir dung di gidi tiuch y ngfaia ciia md fainh thay cho cde he sd ude lugng p (Wooldridge, 2002), dya theo cdng tfaiic:
dGji)
g / ( ) ^ t (6)
Tgp chi Khoa hoc Tmdng Dgi hgc Can Tho Phdn D: Khoa hgc Chmh tri, Kinh li vd Phdp lugt: 35 (2014): 97-104 Viec udc lugng cdc he sd p ciuig nhu failu iing
biln g,-(-)jffj ttr md hinfa ndy la dugc thyc fai?n bdng pfauong phip udc lugng hgp ly tii da (MLE).
2.2 Md hinh nghJIn eihi thyc nghiem Tfaeo Mishra vd Goodwin (2006), quylt dinh mua bao hiim ndng ngfailp eiia faO phu thudc vio cdc nhan td nfau: dd tudi, ttinh dp hpc van, quy md san xuat, ddc diim tai chinfa, dgc diim ctia faoat dpng sin xuit ciia hd hay cdng tdc truyin thdng.
Thim vdo dd, Goodwin (1993) cho rdng hai yiu td inh hudng manh nhat din nfau cdu tfaam gia bio hiim ndng nghiep ciia ndng hp la diln tieh sdn xuit vd tdng chi phi san xuit. Trong nghien ciiu ndy, ben canfa yiu td diln ti'efa ao nudi vd cfai phi ddu tu eho vu nudi dnfa faudng din W, ciia hO nudi tdm d pfauong ttinfa 1 v i 2, cic yiu td kfaic cdn dugc sii dyng de kiim sodt cfao sy khic biet trong faogt d^ng nudi tdm va tfau nhdp cua h§ d pfauong ttinfa 3. Cdc yiu td niy bao gdm: gidi tinh cua ehu fad, ttinfa dd fapc van; ldm vile d dia pfauong, kinh nghi$m nudi, tfaam gia tdp huin, vay vdn. Ngodi ra, phi bio hiem dugc cho la ddng mit vai ttd quan ttgng ttong quyit dinh cd tham gia bdo hiim, tuy rtiiien chuang ttinh thi diim bdo hiim nudi tdra d Vi$t Nam giai dogn 2011- 2013 tiieo Quyit dinfa 315/QD-TTg thyc hien h6 ttg phi bio hiim theo khung quy dinfa cho h$ nuoi torn l i nhiing dii tupng tham gia chuong ttinh. Vi vdy, thim biin giii thich nay hiu nhu khdng cd y nghia ttong md hinh.
Bang 1: Cdc bien giai thich trong md hmh thyc nghi tham gia bao hiem nudi tdm ciia hg
Bdo hiim ndng ngfaiep noi chung vd bdo hiim nudi tdm ndi riing tuy budc dau dd dugc chip nfagn rdng rai ttong ndng ddn, dilu ndy kfadng cfal xuat pfadt tir Ipi ich tryc tilp thi truong bio hiim ma cdn tdc dpng gidn tiip mgnh me ttin thi trudng tin dung. Bdo hiem cd till din din mpt sy md rpng thi trudng tin dyng cho cac nhdm khach hing vay truac ddy khdng ed dugc radn vay, bdi vi vi^c sii dung bdo hiim lam gia tdng kha ndng trd ng. Ngudi cho vay ed lgi the trong chuyin dii tdi sdn ma kfadeh hang trudc day khdng cd tii sin cd gid tti di thi chap thanfa nhiing tdi sdn cd thi chip nh$n dugc, do dd ddm bio an toan cfao kfaodn vay, ngudi di vay cung dat dugc myc tiiu bio faiim cfao hoat ddng sdn xuit khi tfaam gia mdt han miic tin dung, tiic la khi cd ton thdt xay ra, ngudi dugc bio hiim cung kfadng bat bugc faoan ttd kfaodn vay bing cdc ngudn lyc kfadc faoac rdi kfadi kinfa doanfa vi dugc bu d ^ bang tiin bdi tfaudng bdo faiim (Baquet &
Smith, 1996). Han niia, Binswanger vd Donald (1983) chi ra rdng kfai he thing tii chinh phdt ttiin, nhung dilu khoan ciia mdt hgp ding tin dyng dugc quy dinh chat chl, cdc td chiic tin dung khdng thi diiu chinh miic ldi suit cao han cho nhdm khdefa fadng "khong tdt". Vi vdy, cdc td chiic tin dyng thudng yeu ciu ngudi vay raua bio hiim nhu la mgt ca sd de dam bdo nil ro cho m6n vay.
Bing I trinli bay cdc biin gidi thich dugc sii dyng ttong nghiin ciiu ndy va ky vpng ve hudng tdc ddng ciia chiing din quyit dinh tham gia chuang trinh thi diem bdo hiem nudi tdm eua fad.
ilm va ky vgng vl hudng tac d^ng den quyet d|nh
Tin bien Dien gidi K>' vgng ve dau
GIOITINH La gidi tinfa ciia chii hp: nfaan gid tti I neu la nani, nfadn gia ttj 0 neu li nii
Trinh dp hgc vin dugc do luong bing nim di hgc (nam) Ld sd nam nudi tdm (nam)
Nhdn gid tri 1 nlu hd cd tham gia tap hudn ky thudt nudi, nhin gii ttj 0 nlu hg khdng tham gia
Nhdn gid tri I neu gia dinh cd thinh viin lira vile d dja phuong, ngugc lgi Ii 0
THONGTINBH Nhdn gid tti I neu hg cd tilp nhin thdng tin vl bio hilm tdm nudi, ngugc lgi IiO
Nhdn gid tti bdng I neu ndng hd co vay vdn cho hoat d nudi tom, nhdn gii ttj 0 nlu khdng co
DIENTICHAO Diln tich ao nuoi tdm eua ndng hd (1.000 m^)
Chi phi dau tu mOt vy ttin 1 .OOOm^ ragt nude nudi tdm ciia ndng hg (ngin ddng/lOOOm^)
Ghi ehu: '+' the Men moi quan he thudn chieu vdi biin phu thudc '-' thi hien moi quan he ngugc chiiu vdi bien phu thugc
Tgp ctu Khoa Itgc TrudngDgi ftgc Cdn Tito Phdn D: Khoa hgc Chi/A trf. Kinh livd Phdp lu^: 35 (2014): 97-104
2Ji Sdlieu
So lieu so cdp su dung ttong ngfailn cim nay dugc tfau thdp thdng qua dieu tra phdng vdn 113 hd nudi tdm tteo dia ban thanfa phd Bac Lilu va fauyin Hda Binfa, hai ttong ba dia bdn dugc cbgn tfaam ^ a tfai diem bdo hiem nudi torn a Bac Lilu. Trong do, 2 xa Vmfa Tr^fa (23 fad) va Phuong 2 (31 hg) tfaugc tfadnfa pfad Bac Lilu vd 2 xa Vinfa My A (24 fag) v i Vinh Hdu (35 fag) dugc cfagn dl dilu tra tfau tfaip tfadng tin. Tfadi gian dieu tra dugc thyc hien ttong nam 2013. Cdc hd gja dinfa dugc phdng vin tiyc tiep bdng bdng cdu hdi da ehuin bi san. Cdc thong tin dugc fadi bao gdm: tudi, gidi tinh, sd tfainfa viin ttong gia dinh, trinh dp hpc vdn, ngfal ngfailp cua cfaii fag, thu nhap, tdng tai sdn vi cdc thdng tin kfaac liln quan din dac diim ciia fag nuoi tdm. Tfadng tin lien quan doi faoat dgng nudi tdm vd qi^it dinfa tfaam gia cfauong ttinh tfai diem bdo faiim tdm nudi cua hd bao gdm: fad cd tham gia chuang trinh tfai diim kfadng, cdc Iy do tfaam gia faay kfadng tfaam gia, tfadng tin ve dien ti'efa ao nudi. chi phi sdn xudt, sin lugng tfau faoacfa, gid ban tdm vd cdc tfadng tin cd liln quan.
Ngudn sd lieu tfaii cdp dugc tfau tfaap tu cdc van kiln bdo cao tdng kit, tir cac sd, ban ngdnh, nien giim tfadng ke ciia tinfa Bac Lilu vi ciia cac fauyen dugc dilu tra. Ddng thdi, cdc ngudn sd lilu thii cdp tir sdch, bio, faay cac tap ehi cfauyen ngdnfa cung dugc tfau tfadp vd tdng hgp dl phuc vu cho muc dicfa n^^ln ciiu.
3 KET QUA
Bang 2: Thong kl md ta cac biln trong mo hinh
3.1 D|c diim caa bg neoi torn
Kit qua khdo sat cho thdy faoat ddng nuoi tdm tham canfa v i bin tfadm canfa ciia fad tren dja bdn ngfaien eiiu dugc hinfa tfadnfa vd phdt triln tir nhilu nam, dieu ndy dugc tfai fai&i qua kinfa n ^ i l m san xuit trung binh Id 9,3 nam va diln ti'ch ddu tu trung binh khoing 14.000 m- cua mdi ndng fag. Ben canh nhiing Igi tfal vl kinh n ^ l m sdn xuit, ngucri nuoi tdm cung dang bgc Ig nfaieu ban chi ttong viec ti^
can cdc khda tap hudn ky ifaudL Ddng thdi, hg nuoi tdm cd trinh dd hgc van trung binh khd tfadp, d muc cdp hai. Dieu ndy dugc xem nhu se Id ttd ngai ldn ddi vdi fad nudi tdm cd nhu cdu ung dung tien bg ky thudt, quy trinfa nudi cdi tien nfadm nang cao ndng sudt vd chdt lugng sdn pham. Kit qua dieu tra cdn cho tfady faoat ddng ddu tu cho fainh thiic nudi thdm canfa va bdn thdm canfa cua fadu hit ndng hd tten dia ban oglilen eihidugc thyc faien bdng ngudn vdn tm dung, cbu yeu la tui dung pfai cfainh tfauc (chilm 81,6% tdng sd bg cd vay vdn) mac dCi thyc tl ti'n dung cfainfa tfaiic ludn dugc cac nhi nude xera nfau Id kinfa cung cdp vdn cfauifa cho kfau vyc ndng tfadn. Ngodi ra, hd nudi tdm a dia bdn Bgc Lilu dang ddi mat vdi tinfa trang cfai phi ddu tu cho thiic dn vd fada chit chira benfa cfao tdm kfad cao, miirc trung binh 15 trieu ddng/1.000 m^, ttong kfai tfau nfaip cd xu faudng gidm do dnfa hudng bdi gid tdm nguyin lilu bip benh vd dich benh thuang xuyln.
Do dd, ndng ddn cdn cac chinfa sacfa hd ttg hodc cdng cy tdi chinfa dt giiip hg ^am tfaieu thiet faai do nii ro de hg an tdm tilp tuc nudi tdm trin dja bdn.
Ten bien Trnng binh Ldn nhat So lich chuin
GIOITINH TRINHDO SONAMKN LAMVIECDP TAPHUAN VAYVON THONTDMBH DIENTICHAO CHIPHI
0,841 7,7 9 ^ 0,195 0,425 0,673 0,522 13,9 15.137,881
1 - ™ I g , - ™ . 17
I 1 1 1 48,5 135.200
n
,„
" " " • ' 0 — - •
3 0 0 0 0 1
886J64 ] 0,368 3,3 3,2 0,398 0,497 0,471 0,502 9,9 19.318-160 Tdng sd quan sdt (bd)
Ngudn: So lieu dieu tra ho ndm 2013 3.2 Kit qua
Dl phdn tich cdc ylu td anh hudng din quyet dinfa mua bdo faiim tdm nudi eua ndng hp trin dia
ban tinfa Bac Lilu dl tdi sii dyng mo hinh Logit dk pfadn ti'ch. Kit qud udc lugng ciia md hinfa dugc tiinh bay d Bing 3.
Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tmdng Dgi hge Cdn Tho Phdn D: Khoa hoc Chinh Iri, Kinh le vd Phdp lugf 35 (2014): 97-104
; 3: Ket qua md hinh Logit cho quyit dinh mua bao hiem tdm nudi HI so Hi|u ling bien GIOITINH
TRINHDO SONAMKN DIENTICHAO VAYVON LAMVIECDP THONGTINBH TAPHUAN CHIPHI
0,316 - 0,252"
0,072 0,159*' 0,294 1,871*
2,334"*
2,545***
- 0,000
0,074 - 0,057
0,016 0.036 0,068 0,331 0,497 0,503 - 0,000
0,781 0,037 0,445 0,011 0,687 0,084 0,002 0,002 0,218
Hang sd - 2,906* 0.067
Tdng sd quan sdt Log likelihood Ti II dy bio diJng (%)
113 0,000 -32,676 89,38 Ghichu: * **, *** tuong ung vdi cdc muc muc y nghia 10%, 5%vd 1%
Nguon: So liiu diiu tra hd ndm 2013
Gid tti kiem dinfa md hinh (P-value = 0.000) cho bilt cac biln gidi thiefa ed thi dugc sii dyng dl gidi thich cho quyet dinh tham gia bao hiim nudi tom ciia hd. Kiim djnh da cdng tuyin dugc tiin h^tii tfadi^ qua fai sd phdng dgi phuong sai (VIF).
Kit qua kiim dinh cho thiy cdc gia ttj VIF diu nho hon 0,8. do do cd the bd qua tuong quan giiia cdc biin d^c Igp ttong md hinh. He so Pseudo-R^ kit hgp vdi ti 11 dy bio diing ciia md hinh (89,38%) cho phep kit ludn tinh phii hgp ciia rad hinh udc lugng. Vi vdy, cdc biin cd jf nghia ttong md fainfa bao gdm TRINHDO, LAMVIECDP, TAPHUAN, DIENTICHAO, THONGTINBH dugc diing di gidi tfaich cfao quyit dinfa tham gia chuong ttinh bdo hilm nudi tdm eiia fag (Bdng 3).
He sd TRINHDO cd mii quan hi tuong quan nghiefa vdi xdc sudt mua bdo hilm ciia ndng hd d miic y nghia 5%. Dieu ndy ngu y rdng chu hd cd ttinfa dp fapc van cdng cao tfai it tfaam gia vio logi hinh bdo hiira nay. Tuy phit hiln nay ttai ngugc vdi kit ludn ciia cdc nghiin ctiu phd biln (xem Sadati va ctv, 2010) moi quan he ndy co the dugc IJ giii ttong dilu kiln tfai trudng bdo hiem nudi tdm d Vi?t Nam. Dl cap din bio hiim tdra nudi, mpt logi hinh bdo hiim faodn todn mdi d dja bdn ndng thdn, nhirng ndng dan cd ttinh d$ hgc vdn thudng cd sy can nhdc rit ky giiia chi phi vd lgi ieh tir bio hilm. Do chuang ttinh thi diim bdo hiim tdm nuoi Ian diu ttiin kfaai nin cdn tdn tgi nfaiiu bat c|p ttong vdn bin faudng din, cdng tic trien kfaai, cfadng faan cic dai \</ bio faiim vi cdn bd dja pfauong dd dugc tap huin nhung faoat dgng cdn ylu, cfaua thong tin ddy dii vi ttach nhi|m vd
quyln lgi cua ndng dan khi tfaam gia bdo hilm. Die bilt. cac quy dinfa ve bdi tfaudng cdn nhieu phiic tap, trii qua nhieu kfaiu ttung gian nen tdn nfaieu thdi gian va thdm chi du ludn ciing phin inh mgt sd dgi ly bdo hiim thilu ttach nhi|m vd van dl nii ro dgo diic ttong khau bdi thudng thi^t hgi (mdt sd ttudng hgp ndng ddn rauin nh|n dugc tlln bdi thudng nhanh thi phdi ttd mgt khodn phi hoa hong....). Thuc te tten lam cho ra$t s6 ndng ddn co hllu bilt khdng mudn tham gia bdi vi hg thilu tin tudng san pham va khdng mudn dem den philn phiic cho gia dinh. Ngugc lgi, nfaiiu hg nudi cd ttinh do hgc vdn tfaap thudng thieu nh$n thiic vl cdc quy tdc vd dieu kfaodn fagp ding bdo faiim nfaung do van dpng cua dia pfauong ddi cfaap nhgn tham gia theo phong trdo. ____
Lim vile d d\a phuang (LAMVIECDP) ed dnh faudng thudn efaiiu vdi quyit djnfa tfaam gia bdo cua ndng fad d muc y nghia 10%. Hd gia dinh cd thanfa vien lira viec d dja pfauong cd khi ning tham gia bio hiim cao faan 33.1 diim phdn tram so vdi nhtrng fad khac. Diiu nay la do cde hO cd tfadnfa vien Iam vi|c d dja pfaucmg ed nhieu thdng tin vl chuang trinh triln khai bao hiim, fap dl dang biet dugc quy ttinh thii tuc tham ^a, dugc ddc in ttong kJ kit hgp ddng va giii quylt boi thudng nfad moi quan hi vdi dan vj bdo hilm. Ben cgnh do, quyit dinh mua bio hilm tflm nudi eung mgt phdn mang tt'nh chdt bat budc. bdi vi nhiing cin bp dja phuong thudng chu ddng tham gia va chuang ttuih nhdm thi hien tinh thdn nlu guang ttong vile tiiyc hi|n chinh sich bdo hiem ndng nghiip. lam ea sd tuyln truyen nhan rOng ttong nfadn dan.
Tap cft/ Khoa hpc Tmdng Dgi hge Cdn Tho Phin D: Khoa hgc Chinh tri. Kinh ti .M Ph^ lugt: 35 (2014): 97-104 HI SO duang ciia TAPHUAN cd y nghTa d miic
1% ngy y rdng cdc hd gia dinh cd tham ^a tip huan ky thuit tfal nfau c ^ mua bio faiim ^ m nudi ldn faon 50,3 diem phdn trdm so vdi bg khdng dugc tgp hudn. Bdi \d khi tfaam gia tap fauan, ndng hg cd ca hgi tilp can vm 1^ thuit sdn xuat phii hgp, die bilt Ii pfain bilt dugc cac riii ro ttong san xudt vd thiin tai va nfain tfaiic ro Im icfa cua viee tham gia bao hiim ( N ^ 2012). Ngoai ra, khda tip hudn
^lip hg nudi tdm ^ dyng quy cfaudn ky tbuit mdi vio hogt dgng sdn xuit nhdm ning cao cfait lugng, giim tfailu nguy ea xiy ra djch benh, dim bio lgi ich cho ngudi tham ^ a bao hilm.
HI sd diln tich ao tdm (DIENTICHAO) duomg vd cd y ngfaTa d muc 5%, efai ra ring qio" md nudi tdm tuang quan tiiuan vdi xic sudt tfaam gja bdo faiem tdm nudi ciia hd, cu tfal diln ti'efa nudi tang tfalm 1.000 m^ till nfau cdu mua bdo faiem tang 3,6 diim phdn trdm. Kit qud ndy pfaii hgp vdi kit qud eiia Knight vd Coble (1997) n0uen cuu vi bao hiem ndng n ^ l p d My vi kit qui ciia Torkamani (2002) tai Iran. Thyc t i cfao tfa^ nfaihig hd nudi vdi quy md ldn tfai kfad ndng kiem so^U faogt ddng nudi ciia fad bi hgn che, chdng han nguoi canh tic kfad cd tfal quin ly tdt hon vile kilm tra ylu td mdi ttudng nude, k^ tfauit cfadm sdc tdm ttong sudt qua trinh nudi, vi vdy fap nhdn thue duge nguy ca ddi mat vdi riii ro cao va mdt ttong nhiing gidl p h ^ tdi uu Id tfaam gia bdo faiim.
HI sd duong cua ylu td THONGTIN cd y ngfaTa thdng kl d muc 1% cho thiy rang niu fad nudi tdm dugc tiep can tfadng tin vl sdn pfaim bio faiim torn nudi thi xdc suit ^uylt dinfa mua bio faiim si cao faon 49,7 diem phdn trdm so vdi nfaihag ndng fad kfadc. Kit qud niy pfau fagp vdi lap luan ciia Shetii, Mittal vd Newman (2001) rang kfadefa fadng chi cd thi tfaam g ^ khi dicfa vu tfadng tin san pfadm vd sy fad ttg dugc thda mdn. Do ddc tmfa vd fainfa ciia san pfaim bio hilm vd cdc tfauat ngy chuyen ngdnfa dugc sir dung troog fagp ddng, chdng fagn miic phi bio hilm, trdch nhilm khi tiiam gja, ddng quan tam faan Id dilu khodn bdi tfaudng, nen ddi vdi mgt so khach hang thi sdn pfadm bdo faiim cd tfal kfailn hg khdng dl dai^ faieu faoac fainfa duog cu tfal, vi tfal kfaich faing tfaudng cd xu faudng khdng mua nfaihig sin pfaim ma hp khdng hiiu ro vi fap sg ring se quyet djnh sai lim v i efaiu thilt hai. Ben canfa dd, do ddc tfaii vj tri dia ly v i van fada cua nfaiing ndng ddn sdng kfau vyc nong tfadn it tiip xuc va sii dung cac c&ig cu tdi chinfa, cy tfal li cdc san pfaam bdo faiem nfadn tfag de bdo ve cfao cudc sdng bin thin cfaii cfaua odi la bio faiem tdm nudi, root logi hinh bio hilm hoin toan mdi, lan ddu tien
t r i ^ kfaai tai ^ bao tinfa Bac Lilu, n ^ kfaaefa hang khdng dugc gjdi ifau^ ddy dii va rd rang cac dimg tin lieo quan tfai hg r ^ ngdn ngai bd ra m ^ so tioi ddng ki dio bdo fai^n.
4 KET LUAN
Bit vilt ndy tap tnmg xac dinh cac yeu id anfa faudng din quyit ^ n h tfaam gja cfauong trinfa bdo faiem tdm nudi nhdm ^ a m thilu thilt faai do riii ro ciia fag nudi ^ m trio dta bin tinfa Bac Lieu. So lieu pfadn ti'efa ttong dugc tim tiidp tfamg qua pfafflig vdn 113 fad tai fauyen Hda Binh va thinfa pho Bac Lilu.
Ddy la 2 dia bao tap truog nfaiiu fag nuoi tmn vi v ^ pfadn dnh kfaa chinh xac thyc ttang cfauong trinfa thi diem bdo faiem nudi tdm d Bac Lieu K ^ qua phdn ticfa chi ra rang bd oudi torn chi mua bdo hiim kfai cd tfadng tin diy dii vl chuong trinfa bdo hiem. R6 rang, vile tu vin tfamig tin gjiip ddi tugng tfaam gja hieu bilt rd hon vl dac tinfa sdn fAdm, nhung d i ^ khoin cita fagp ddng bdo faiim tdm nudi. Do do, hoin tiuin cdng tdc tfadng tin, ti^en ttuyoi la mdt
^di pfaip qiran ttmig. Ben canfa dd, quy^ dinfa tfaam gia bdo h i ^ tdm nudi nhi&i hon neu chii hd duge tham dy cdc budi hdi thdo, t ^ huin ky tfauit bdi vi nd cung cap cho ndng dan ribllu kieo tfauc ve ky thuat nudi trdt^ va dp dung ky thuat oudi phii hgp cho ddi tugng tham gia bao hilm, dong tfadi cd CO hdi liep ofaan ddy du ngi duog cfaioh sdcfa bdo faiim. Ldm vile d dja pfauong ciing cd dnfa faudng din q i ^ ^ dinh tfaam gia bao faiim ciia fag nudi tdm. Nfaiing gja dinfa cd tfadnfa viai ldm vile d dja pfauong cd nfaieu tfauan Igi uong viec tiq> nhdn tfadng tin, ky ket vd gjdi quylt bdi tiiudng bao hilm, song song dd ding thi hien tinh tfadn trdcfa nhilm ttong cfaii truong thi diem, ^n v ^ xdc suit mua bdo hilm ciia ddi tugng nay kfad cao. Mat kfadc, trinfa do hgc van eua cfau fad lai Id yeu td han cfae mua bdo faiim tdm nudi. Tliuc ti cfao tfaiy, bdo faiem tdm nudi la md hioh bio hiem mm, tfadng tin Ohio dugc ve sdn phdm cdo ofaieu diem cfaua rd raog, do do, sa dinfa ddi ^iia pfai bdo faion vd Igi icfa bao hilm diang Id mgt sy lya cbgo cd can nhdc ciia nhilu fag nudi tdm. Cudi ciuig, dien ti'efa nudi tdm ciing dtrgc xon nfau ii mgt ttcmg cac nhdn td tdc ddng d ^ quyit djnfa mua bdo hiim cfao tdm oudi. Cac fad oudi tdm vdi quy md ldn cd xu faudng mua bdo faiim nhilu hon. Nguylo nfaan hieo tiiuog ndy Id do kfad nang quan ly ciia fag nudi cd gidi faan tten diln tt'cfa dit caoh tac nin hg e nggi gap rui ro trong kfai nudi, vi tfai fag nudi tdm diwi gidi phdp an todn Id tiiam gja bdo faiim. Cac yiu td kfadc nhu sd ndm kinh n ^ l i n , vay v6n vd chi j ^ sdn xuit kfadng CO tdc ddi^ id ret den quyit dinfa diam gia bdo fai»n tdm nudi ciia ndog fad.
Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tmang Dgi hoc Cdn Tha Phdn D: Khoa hoc Chinh iri. Kinh ti vd Phap lugl: 35 (2014): 97-104 Dya vdo kit qui nghiin cuu, mdt sd kfauyen
ngfaj eho cfainfa sdcfa hudng tdi md rgng djch vu bao faiem cfao hd nuoi tdm d tinh Bgc Lilu bao gdm; (i) xdy dyng sdn pfaim bio hiim nudi tdm phii hgp vdi quy md nudi tdm ciia hp ddng thdi cin tip trung cung cip djch vy bio hilm cho hg nudi tdm cd quy md ldn hoac cfai phi ddu tu cao; (ii) xdy dyng vd phdt ttiin mgng ludi cung cip djcfa vu bio hiim vdi dudi nfaiiu hinh thiic nhu dai ly bio hiim dgc lip nhdm giup ngudi ddn dl dang tiip can voi dich vu bdo hiim ndy; (iii) tiip tuc pfad biin vi dicfa vu bdo hiem tdm nudi trin cic phuong tien thdng tin dai chung va thdng qua kinfa ciia cfainfa quyen dia pfauong; (iv) cdn cd ca chi pfaoi hgp giiia nginh ndng nghiip d dia phuong vd cfing ty bio hilm di ti chtic cdc budi hgi thdo, chuyin dh dk gia tang su failu biet ciia khach hang ve chuang ttinfa bdo faiim ndng nghiep nhu Id thii tuc tham gia vd bdi thudng, _ trao doi thac mac vdi h$ nudi tdm de fag tin tudng vao sin phdm bio hiem niy.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Baquet, A. and Smith, V., 1996. Demand for multiple peril crop uisurance: Evidence from Montana wheat farms. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 78(1):
189-201.
2. Binswanger, H. P., 1980. Attitiides Toward Risk: Experimental Measurement in Rural India. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 62: 174-82.
3. Binswanger, H. P. and Donald A. S., 1983.
Risk Aversion and Credit Consttaints ui Fanners' Decision Making: A Reinterpretation. Journal of Development Studies, 20: 5-21.
4. Chambers, R. G.. 1989. Insurability and moral hazard in ^ricultural insurance markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 71:604-616.
5. Goodwin, B, K., 1993. An empirical analysis of the demand for multiple peril crop insurance. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75(2): 425-434.
6. Huy, H. T., Khdi, P. D. vdNguj/et, P. T. A., 2014. Cic nhdn tfi inh hudng din quylt dinh tiiam gia bdo hilm cay liia ciia fad ttdng Ilia d tinh Dong Thap. Tgp chi Khoa hgc Dgi hgc Hui, 90 (2): 105-116.
7. Knight, T. O. and Coble, K.H., 1997.
Survey of U.S. Multiple Peril Crop Insurance Literature Since 1980. Review of Agricultural Economics, 19: 128-156.
