Di CU", tich tu dan so niianli va nhirng tac dong den kinh te, xa hoi tir goc nhin cua nguoi di cu" den cac tinh Dong Nam Bo
Luu Bich Ngoc
Viin Ddn sd vd cdc vdn di xd hpi, Tru&ng dgi hgc Kinh ti qudc ddn Email: bichngocluu(g),gmail. com
Nguyen Thi Thieng
Viin Ddn sd vd cdc vdn di xd hdi, Truimg dgi hoc Kinh ti qudc ddn Email: thiengnt@gmail. com
Ngaynhan: 13/7/2016 Ngay nhan ban sira: 15/8/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/8/2016
Tom tat:
Ddng Nam Bp Id vitng cdng nghiip hda, dd thi hod nhanh, hiin da tr& thdnh khu vuc kinh ti phdt trien nhdt Viet Nam, ddng gop han 2/3 tdng thu ngdn sdch nha nu&c hdng ndm. Ddy la
vitng cd ty li do thi hod cao gdp ddi ty li chung ciia todn qudc. Ddng th&i, day ciing la vitng CO miec dp tap trung ddn sd nhanh nhdt nu&c trong thdp niin viea qua xet cd vi quy md ldn ty sudt nhgp cu. Di cu, tich tu ddn sd tgo nin nhieng tdc dpng tich cite cd ve kinh ti, xd hpi. Bin cgnh do, nd ciing tgo nin nhiing nhiing dp luc ddi v&i cd 2 mat ndi trin. Nghiin cu-u ndy thuc hien ddnh gid tdc ddng cua di cu, tich tu ddn sd nhanh den kinh ti, xd hpi cita viing Ddng Nam Bd dua trin y kiin ddnh gid tdc dpng cita chinh bdn thdn ngu&i di cu. Nhimg nhdn td dnh hucmg din cdc nhgn dinh cua ngu&i di cu vi cdc tdc dpng tich cue hoac tiiu cue cimg dugc ldm rd bdng phdn tich hdi quy.
Tir khoa: Di cu; Tich to dan sd; Tac ddng kinh te, xa hpi, Ddng Nam Bd
Migration, rapid population concentration and socio-economic Impacts evaluated by migrants in Southest region
Abstract:
Southeast is the rapid urbanization and industrialization region that has now become a most developed economic region in Vietnam, contributing more than 2/3 of the total of state budget revenue annually. This area has a urbanization rate double higher than the national average rate. At the same time, this is also the region that has the fastest population concentration level in the countiy in some last decades both in terms of size and migration rate. Migration, rapid population concentration created the positive impacts on economy, society. Besides, it also
created many pressures on three sides above. This study aimed at analyzing the economic, social impacts of migration and rapid population concentration in Southeast region, that based on the evaluation of the migrants themselves. The factors affecting the migrants' eval- uations on the positive or negative impacts were made clearer by regression analysis.
Keywords: Migration; population concentration; socio-economic impacts; southest region
1. Gioi thieu thu hut vdn dau tu manh nhat tren toan qudc, ddng Sau chinh sach Ddi Mdi ciia Chinh phii, Ddng thdi, day cung la vung cd muc dp tap trang dan sd Nam Bp la viing cdng nghiep hda, do thj hda nhanh, nhanh trong thap nien vii'a qua. Theo kit qua T i n g So 231 thing 9/2016 3 3
Dilu tra Dan sl va Nha d ngay ngay 1 thang 4 nam 2009 (Ting cue Thing ke, 2010), dan sl viing Ddng Nam Bd la 14.025.387 ngudi, chilm 16,34% dan sd toan quic va la viing cd tic dp tang dan sd cao nhat nudc. Lao ddng to nhilu viing, miin khac nhau tap trang vl day vung Ddng Nam Bp da tan hudng Igi tbi gia lao dpng re dl tang tra'dng va phat Uien kinh tl. Ddng Nam Bp da trd thanh khu vyc kinh te phat ttiln nhit Viet Nam, ddng gdp ban 2/3 tdng thu ngan sach nha nudc hang nam. Trong khi ty le dd thi boa trang binh cua ca nudc nam 2014 dat 33,9% thi ty le dd thj boa d Ddng Nam Bp da dat 64,95%) (Ting cue Thing ke, 2015).
Theo quy luat, nhu'ng vimg cdng nghiep hda, do thj hda nhanh se cd site thu hiit manh ngudi nhap cu.
Ty le nhap cu thuin ciia vung Ddng Nam Bd giai doan 2004-2009 la 127%o, gip 4 lin so vdi Tay Nguyen, khu vuc cd ty le nhap cu thuan Idn thir hai cua Viet Nam, gip 2 lin so vdi giai doan 1994-1999.
Trong giai doan 5 nam 2004-2009, -vung Ddng Nam Bp da ddn 1.635 nghin ngudi nhap cu, Idn gip han 5 lin so vdi ting sl ngudi nhap cu vao Ddng bang sdng Hing, vimg cd quy md ngudi nhap cu ldn thir hai (289 nghin ngudi), Idn gip gin 3 lin so vdi giai doan 1994-1999 (580 nghin ngudi) (Tdng Cue Thing ke, 2010).
Di cu va tich to dan sl mang trong nd ca nhung tac dpng d tim vi md ddi vdi ngudi di cu lan nhung tac dpng d tim vT md ddi vdi phat trien viing. O tam vi md, di cu giiip "thoa man" nhftng nhu can ve tim kilm viec lam, thu nhap, cai thien cudc sdng. O tam vT md, di cu cd ca tac ddng tich cue va tieu cue vdi kinh tl, xa hpi, mdi tradng ciia viing nhap cu.
Bai viet nay md ta buc tranh tich to dan sd vao vimg Ddng Nam Bp trong 3 thap nien trade day de cho thay cimg vdi qua trinh cdng nghiep hoa - dd thj boa, tich to dan sd nhanh da bien Ddng Nam Bd trd thanh viing phat trien nhat cita Viet Nam. Sau do, bai viet trinh bay danh gia tac ddng cua di cu, tich tu dan sd den kinh te, xa hdi ctia vimg Ddng Nam Bp theo y kien danh gia cua ngud'i di cu ve nhflng tac dpng ndi tren.
2. Tong quan nghien ciru
Di dan npi dja dugc dac trang nii bat bdi lulng di dan nong thdn - thanh thj ndi len manh tit nhung nam 1950. Lewis (1954) da coi di dan ndng thdn - dd thj la mpt bd phan cau thanh ciia qua trinh phat trien kinh te, cung cip lyc lupng lao ddng "du thua"
ndng thdn cho nen kinh tl cdng nghiep do thj. Dilu
nay cd tbi din din mdt sl hau qua khdng mong dgi, nhu: lam giam nhu ciu lao ddng ban dia, lam giam gia nhan cdng tren thj tradng lao ddng.
Tuong ddng vdi bii canb cua Viet Nam la cac nghien cuu vl di cu d Trang Qudc, Zhu (2002) da sit dung md hinb toan hpc de phan tich cac nhan td, chi ra mdt sl tac ddng din di dan ndng thdn-dd thj nhu: (1) Tang luong can bien dd thj hoac giam luang can bien ndng thdn, lam tang di cu to ndng thdn ra thanh thj; (2) Co bdi viec lam duoc tao ra nhilu d khu vyc thanh thj tac ddng manh den nhap cu vao do thj; (3) Giam chi phi di chuyen se lam tang di dan ndng thdn - dd thj; (4) Phat triln khu vyc ndng thdn lam giam di dan ndng thdn - do thj.
Laing & cdng sy (2005) tilp tire khing djnh chenh lech thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi giua cac khu vyc la ddng lyc chit ylu thiic day di eu. Nhung anh hudng ciia lao ddng di cu dii vdi noi nhap cu cung duac tac gia phan tich dudi cac khia canh: ty le tim dugc viec lam d dd thj thap, ty le that nghiep dd thj cao, giam gia nhan cdng tien thj tradng lao dpng dd thj.
6 Viet Nam, lien quan din tac ddng cua di cu dii vdi cdng ding noi din, nhieu nghien eun nhan manh tim quan trpng ciia ngudi di cu trong viec bd sung ngudn lao ddng phuc vu phat trien kinh te va ddng gdp dang ke vao sy tang tradng eua cac do thj va ttnng tam cdng nghiep noi hp chuyen den (Vien nghien cira kinb tl Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh, 1996;
Dang Nguyen Anb, 1997, 1998, 1999 va 2005; Uy ban cac van de xa hdi ciia Qudc hdi khda XI, 2005;
UN Viet Nam, 2010). Ben eanh nhung tac ddng tich cue nay, cac nghien ciiu cflng chi ra nhftng anh hudng tieu cyc cua di cu ddi vdi kinh te-xa hpi ciia nai den, cu the la khd khan ttd ngai trong cdng tac quan ly banh chinh (Dang Nguyen Anh, 1999); tang sire ep ddi vdi be thdng co sd ha tang nhu nha d, nudc sach, ve sinh, giao thdng di lai,... va he thdng djch vu xa hdi nhu y te, giao dye,... (Dang Nguyen Anh, 1999; UN Viet Nam, 2010); gia nhan cdng cua lao dpng nhap cu thap ban dan den gia tang canh tranh giu'a lao ddng nhap cu vdi lao ddng ban dia ve phuang dien gia nhan cdng, ddng thdi viec tang lyc lupng lao ddng cflng lam tang ty le that nghiep d dd thj (Vien nghien cuu kinh te Thanh phd Hd Chi Minli, 1996).
3. Phuang phap nghien ciru
Di cu va tich to dan sl nhanh din -vung Ddng Nam Bd dugc minh chung bing cac sl lieu phan
Sd 231 thing 9/2016 34 ly'liiil trien
tieh to bd sl lieu cua cac cudc Tdng dieu tta Dan sd va Nha d cae nam 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 va Dilu tta Dan sd giua ky thdi dilm 1/4/2014. Cac chi bao ve quy md dan sl, ty suit nbap cu thuin ciia Ddng Nam Bd dugc so sanh vdi cac chi bao nay cua cac
•vimg dia ly khac de lam ndi bat muc do tich to dan sd vao Ddng Nam Bg trong vdng 30 nam sau Ddi Mdi.
Nghien cira nay khdng danh gia tryc tiep anh hudng cua di cu den phat trien kinh te - xa hdi ma danh gia thdng qua y kien cua ngudi di cu ve tac ddng tich eye va tieu cyc ciia di cu den phat trien kinh te, xa hdi tai dja phuong noi den. Ket qua phan tich khdng nhung phan anh nhung tac ddng thyc ctia di cu ma edn cho biet dupe nhan thuc ciia ngudi di cu ve boat ddng di chuyen eua minh, ddng thdi nhflng thdng tin nay se giup udc lupng dugc ddng lyc di cu cua hg ttong thdi gian tiep theo.
Bp du lieu ditng cho phan tich thu dugc to' dieu tra cua Vien Dan sd va cac van de xa hdi, Tradng Dai hpc Kinh te qudc dan thing 12 nam 2014 dudi sy tai trg cua Quy Khoa hpc - Cdng nghe qudc gia (Nafosted). Trong dieu tra nay, Ddng Nai va Binh Duong la bai tinh dien hinh cua -vitng Ddng Nam Bp dugc chgn lam dja ban nghien citu. Bang hdi ban cau true dugc thyc hien vdi nhflng ngudi di cu to 15 - 60 todi, den bai tinh nay frong 10 nam qua, hien dang lam viec d ea khu 'vyc chinh thirc va phi chinh thirc. Quy md mau dugc xac djnh dua vao cdng thu'c tinh mau khi biet tdng the mau (tdng sd ngudi di dan den cac dja ban nghien cira theo ket qua Tdng dieu tia Dan sd va Nha d nam 2009), vdi dp tin cay thdng ke dat 95%). Quy md mau can thiet la 700 don vj.
Mdi tinh cd 350 ngudi di cu dugc dieu tra, trong do khoang 70%o ngudi nhap cu den khu vyc chinh tbtic, 30%) ngudi nhap cu den khu vyc phi chinh thirc.
Phuong phap chgn man phan tang, ngau nhien he thdng da dugc ap dung.
Tac dpng cua nbap cu, tich to dan sd nhanh den kinh te, xa hdi d Ddng Nam Bd dupe phan tich tren ca sd y kien danh gia cua chinh ngudi di cu ve nhiing nhan dinh dupe neu ra (Bang I). Nhiing nhan djnh nay dugc phat hien so bd to nghien eun djnh tinh kham pha trade dd. Cau hdi dugc dat ra de yeu ciu ngudi di cu lupng hda cac tac dpng la: "Theo anh chi nhiing dong gdp cita nguai di cu theo cdc phucmg dn di xudt du&i day a miec dp quan trgng nhu thi ndoT Vdi mdi phuang an dugc dl xuit, 5 miie danh gia (to 1 din 5) dugc ngudi di cu xac
djnh. Mu'c 5 la mirc ddng gdp cao nhat va 1 la mirc ddng gdp thip nhat. Phan tieh nay se thay 5 mite dp danh gia ciia ngudi di cu bang 2 mite dp nhu sau:
mu'c 1 va mirc 2 la y kien danh gia khdng quan trpng hay ndi eac khac la ddng gdp khdng nhieu. Mirc 3, mu'c 4 va mirc 5 la quan trpng va rat quan trpng hay la mire ddng gdp nhieu.
Nhirng y kien nhan djnh ciia ngudi di cu ve tac ddng tich eye hay tieu cyc ciia nhap cu den phat triln kinh te, xa hdi ciia noi den cd the bj anh hudng bdi nhieu yeu td nhu cae dac trang ca nhan cua ngudi di cu, nhflng anh hudng khach quan to ben ngoai tdi hanh vi di cu. De cd dugc danh gia chinh xac hon ve tac ddng "thyc" cua di cu, tich tu dan sd tdi cac van de kinh te, xa hdi, hdi quy logistic da bien (multinominal logistics regression) da dugc su' dung de phan tieh nhftng nhan td anh hudng den y kien danh gia cua ngudi di cu cflng nhu nhiing yeu td cd the frd thanh lyc hut hoac lyc day eho cac ddng di cu tiep theo. Phuang ttinh hdi quy dugc su dung cd dang:
Log ( P; Vj )= tty + PijXi+ PijX2+....+ Eij
Cac bien sd ddc lap dugc dua vao md hinh phan tich hdi quy cd the chia thanh 3 nhdm nhu sau:
Nhdm 1: Cdc yen td liin quan din chinh sdch di cu, gdm chinh sach lien quan den hd khau bd tjch, cac chinh sach lien quan den cung cap djch -vti xa hpi cdng nhu: dien, nudc, giao due va y te cdng...
Nhdm 2: Cdc yiu td thudc ve cpng ddng, gdm mang ludi xa hdi, vdn xa hdi, sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi cita dja phuang nai den (cung ve viee lam, tiep can cac djch vn cdng nhu dien, nudc, y te, giao due...).
Nhdm 3: Cdc yeu td thupc cd nhdn ngieai di cu gdm: todi, gidi tinh, trinh trang hdn nhan, trinh dp hpc van phd thdng, trinh dp chuyen mdn, tinli trang viec lam, ITnh -vyc kinh te, noi lam viec, thu nhap, que gdc.
4. Tich tu dan so nhanh is Dong Nam Bo Ket qua cae Tdng dieu tra Dan sd va Nha d cac nam 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 va Dilu tra giua ky nam 2014 cho thay giai doan 1979-1989, sau Tay Nguyen, Ddng Nam Bd da la -vung cd tdc dp tang dan sd cao nhat, 2,7%)/nam. Tich tu dan sd bat dau dien ra d Ddng Nam Bd tit nhiing nam 1989, sau khi Viet Nam thyc hien ehinh sach Ddi Mdi, xay dung cac khu cdng nghiep va thu hiit dau ta nudc ngoai.
Trong 10 nam tu 1989-1999, dan sd khu 'vyc Ddng
So 231 thing 9/2016 35
IIU
Bang 1: Cac biln s6 flanh gia tac dong cua nhap cu, tich tu dan s6 nhanh ND Danh gia tac dong tich cue
2
+ Gop phan vao phat frien cac nganh nghe + Sau khi co thu nhap tit tilp tac tai dau ta vln cho phat ttiln san xuit, kinh doanh + Gdp phin bu dip thieu hut lao dpng + Lam cho ngu'di dia phuang giau len vi co the kinh doanh cac loai hinh dich vu (thue nha d, thue trong tre....)
+ Phat huy hieu qua ctia he thong y te + Phat huy hieu qua cua he thong giao due + Mang din nai day net dep van hoa
X
Danh gia tac dong tieu cue + Gop phan lam tang that nghiep
-I- Lam qua tai he thong ha tang giao thdng + Lam qua tai he thong y te
+ Lam qua tai he thing giao due
+ Gay mit trat ta xa hpi do ngudi di cu hay gay roi, danh nhau
+ Hay uIng ragu va lai xe gay tai nan giao thong
+ Hay vi pham luat giao thong, di lai "bira bai"
+ Ngudi di cu gdp phan lam tang cac berth lay trayin qua dudng tinh due do quan he tinh due khong an toan
+ Ngudi di cu liy cip cua nhau gay Ion xpn xa hoi
Bang 2. Quy mo dan s6 cac vimg 6" Viet Nam qua cae nam 1979-2014
Bon vi: Nghin ngucri TT
1 2 3 4 5 6
Viing kinh te xa hoi Mien niii va trang du Bac Bp Dong bang song Hong
Bac Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bp
Dong bang song Cim Long Toan quoc
1979 8.069 11.445 13.080 1.529 6.276 12.341 52.742
1989 10.242 13.784 15.459 2.512 7.987 14.428 64.412
1999 11.053 16.834 16.536 4.060 11.710 16.131 76.323
2009 11.065 19.578 18.836 5.107 14.025 17.179 85.789
2014 11.633 20.649 19.482 5.504 15.721 17.501 90.493 Nguon: Tdng hap tie so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke
Nam Bd da tang to 7.987 nghin ngudi len 11.710 Mat dp dan s l vung Ddng Nam Bd da tang to 265 nghin ngudi, tdc dp tang trang binh trong giai doan ngu'di/km^ nam 1979 len 333 ngudi/km^ nam 1989;
naylentdi4,7%)/nam. D a y l a t h d i k y m a D d n g N a m 434 ngudi/km- nam 1999 va 594 ngudi/km^ nam Bp cd tdc dp tang tradng dan s l Idn nhit. Budc sang 2009. Nhu vay, mu'c dp tap trang dan tren mdt don giai doan 1999-2009, quy md dan s l vimg Ddng vj dien tich lanh tho tai 'viing nay da tang 2,23 lan Nam Bp da tang len tdi 14.025 nghin ngudi, vdi tic trong 30 nam, frong khi mite tang trang binh cua dp tang trang binh 2,0%/nam. Tinh din ngay I toan q u i e la 1,6 lin.
thang 4 nam 2014, quy md dan s l cua vung nay la Tich to dan s l d Ddng Nam bp chu ylu la do 15.721 nghin ngudi, tdc dp tang dan s l trang binh nhap cu. Trong giai doan 2004-2009, ty suit nhap giai doan 2009-2014 la 2,23% (Bang 2 va bang 3). cu d vung nay gip 9 lin so vdi ty suit nhap cu vao Sd 231 thing 9/2016 35
Bang 3. T6C do tang dan s6 cac viing cua Viet Nam cac glal doan 1979-2014
Dan vi: phdn trdm
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6
Vimg kinh te xa h6i Mien nui va trang du BSC Bp Dong bang song Hong
Bic Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bp
Ddng bang song Cira Long Toan quoc
1979- 1989 26,9 20,4 18,2 64,2 27,3 16,9 22,1
1989- 1999 7,9 22,1
7,0 61,6 46,6 11,8 18,5
1999- 2009 6,1 16,3 13,9 25,8 19,8 6,5 12,4
2009- 2014 5,1 5,3 3,4 7,3 11,1
1,8 5,3 Nguon: Tong hap tie so lieu cita Tong cite Thong ke
Bang 4: Ty suat di dan thuan tuy qua cac nam, cac giai doan 2004-2014
Don vi: phan nghin
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6
*
*
Vung kinh te xa hoi Trang du va mien nui phia Bac Dong bang song Hong
Bac Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bp
Dong bang sdng Cira Long Binh Duong
Dong Nai
2004- 2009 -17,5
-1,7 -34,6 11,2 107,7 -40,4 314,4 60,8
2010 -3,9
0,5 -5,7 -0,3 19,9 -8,4 74,6 16,3
2011 -3,3
0,9 -4,0 -2,4 14,8 -6,5 42,7 22,1
2012 -2,6
0,2 -4,4 3,7 11,7 -5,0 48,9 12,5
2013 -2,3 -0,3 -1,7 2,1 8,3 -4,3 34,5 6,7
2009- 2014 -8,1
0,3 -15,0 1,0 56,9 -29,7 205,3 30,4 Nguon: Tong htyp tit so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke
3 vimg: vung Trang du va mien nui phia Bac, 'vung Bac Trang bd va Duyen hai mien Trang va •vung Ddng bang sdng Cira Long (135%o so vdi I5,9%)o;
16,0%o va 16,3%oo), gap 4 lan so vdi ty suat nhap eu cua -vung Ddng bang sdng Hdng (35%oo), tham chi gap 3 lan ty suat nbap cu den Tay Nguyen (43,3%)o).
Xem xet ty suat di cu thuan toy qua cac giai doan cho thay giai doan 2004-2009, frong kbi cac vflng cd ty suat di cu tbuan toy mang dau (-), cd nghTa la sd ngudi xuat cu di nhieu bon sd ngudi tihap cu den, hay ty suat nay d Tay Nguyen ehi la lI,2%oo thi ty suat nay d Ddng Nam Bd la 107,7%)o. Dieu nay cho thay, Ddng Nam Bd thyc sy la -viing thu hut ngudi di eu den ldn nhat d Viet Nam. Quan sat cho thay nhflng nam gan day ty suat di dan thuan toy den -vimg nay cd xu hudng giam di, I9,9%)o nam 2010, giam cdn 14,8%o nam 2011; ll,7%o nam 2012 va 8,3%o nam 2013; ty suit di dan 5 nam 2009-2014 cung giam cdn 56,9%)o (Bang 4). Nguyen nhan cd the la do su:c hiit cua vung nay da suy giam khi cae vflng khac da bit
dau phat trien dan manh len, cung cd the do tac ddng cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau tac ddng vao boat ddng san xuat ndi tai cua vitng nay. Cac gia thuyet nay se can phai dugc kiem nghiem.
5. Tac dong den cac van de Idnh te, xa hoi 5.1. Tdc dpng den kinh ti
5.1.1. Y kiin ddnh gid cua ngu&i di cu vi tdc dpng din kinh ti
Ve tac dpng tich cyc, khoang tren dudi 70%) ngudi di cu dugc dieu tra da danh gia di dan lam eho tich to dan sd nhanh, tac ddng manh den phat trien kinb te dja phuang noi den. Theo hp, ddng gdp manh nhat cua di cu tai vung den la giup ngudi dan dia phuang giau len do phat trien cac djch -vu (72,7%)), thir hai la bii dap thieu hyt lao ddng (71,4%)), thit ba la tiep toe tai dau to vdn cho phat trien san xuat (70,5%o) va thu' to la gdp phan phat trien cac nganh nghe (68,5%)) (Hinh I).
Ve tac ddng tieu cyc, 68,0% ngudi duac dieu tra da nhan djnh nhap cu lam gia tang tinh trang that
Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 37
Hinh 1: Ty le nguoi dl cu co y kiln danh gia tac dong cua dl cu- dil voi phat triin kinh ti d dja phuong la quan trong Lam cho nguai dja phuang giau len vi co the kinh
doanh cac loai hinh dich vu (thue nha a, thue ttong..
Gop phan bii dip thigu hut lao dong a nai day Gop phjn vao phat ttiin cac nganh nghe a nai day Sau khi c6 thu nliap t6t tilp tuc tai d§u tu von cho
phat ttiSn san xuit, kinh doanh tai nai day G6p phin lam tang thit nghiep a nai day
I 72.7
I 71.4
~1 70.5
61.1
68.0
DOTI vi: %
Nguon: Diiu tra cUa Vien Ddn so vd cdc vdn dexd hpi (2015)
nghiep d noi din, nguy co nay dugc mdt ty le cao nay cd y nghTa quan trgng ban so vdi nhflng ngudi (72,1%) ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to thg di cu khdng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn. Phai chang lao bac ba frd xudng danh gia quan frpng.
5.1.2. Nhiing nhdn td dnh hu&ng y kiin ddnh gid cda nguai di cie ve tdc dpng tiri kinh ti
D I I vdi y kiln danh gia tac ddng tich cyc, ket qua phan tich hli quy cho thay ddi togng dieu fra la can bd quan ly va thg bac 3 trd len nhan dinh mirc dp ddng gdp ciia hp cho kinh te d dja phuang it quan trpng hem ngud'i di cu la lao ddng to do. Ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to thg bac 3 trd xudng lai cho rang minh gdp phan vao phat trien kinh te d dja phuang cao hon so vdi lao dpng to' do. Cd the thay la tinh kha dung cua lao ddng di cu d khu vyc Ddng Nam Bd mdi chi dupe phat huy manh ddi vdi lao dpng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to bac 3 trd xudng.
Xem xet cac yeu td thupc ve cdng ddng thi thay nhiing ngudi cho rang "cac chu doanh nghiep it chii y den dao tao cdng nhan" hay "khdng cd nhieu trang tam day nghe" hay "he thdng benh vien tdt" lai danh gia ddng gdp ciia ngudi di cu den kinh t l ctia dia phuong la quan trpng. Xem xet ylu t l mang ludi xa hdi ctia ngudi di cu cho phep nhan djnh ring, nhung ngudi khdng dupe hoac khdng cin nhd gidi thieu viec lam hay hd trp nha d va cac dilu kien sinh boat khac da danh gia su dong gdp cua ngudi di cu cho kinh te ctia dja phuang nai den quan trpng ban so vdi ngudi di cu da dupe ngu'di di cu di tra'dc gidi thieu viec lam, hd trp noi d.
Ddi vdi y kiln danh gia tac dpng neu cyc, hiu hit nhung ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn cao (tii' sa cap, cao dang, dai hpc) danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc
ddng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn "khdng dugc trpng dung" tai Ddng Nam Bd do c i u lao dgng cua -vimg nay ve lao ddng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn van khdng cao. San xuit vin chi dya tren edng nghe can nhieu lao ddng trinh dp thip va gia luong re. N I U ngudi di cu cd quan niem nay, hp rat de cd xu hudng rdi khdi day di noi khac hoac quay ve que cfl. Nhflng ngudi di cu hien dang phai lam viee tren 40 gid/toan cung dua ra nhan djnh nay eao ban nhdm ngudi di cu chi lam viec dudi 40 gid/toan. Nhflng ngudi lam viec tai doanh nghiep hoac co sd lao ddng to nhan danh gia tac dpng tieu eye cao nhat, xep hang thir hai la nhung ngudi lam doanh nghiep d nudc ngoai. Chi rieng nhdm ngudi lam d cac cdng ty hoac doanh nghiep cd phan la cd y kien danh gia ngugc lai.
Nhflng ngudi di cu cho rang mdi tradng sdng khdng tdt cung danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua di cu den kinh te manh hon. Nhung ngudi khdng dugc trg giiip tim viec lam hoac chd d hoac khdng dugc giiip dd cho vay tien danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc ciia di cu tdi kinh te manh hon. Xem xet cac yeu td lien quan den boa nhap cdng ddng, nhung ngudi quen than vdi ngudi ban dja va tham gia sinh boat cdng dpng danh gia anh hudng tieu cyc it ban nhiing ngudi khdng tham gia sinh boat cdng ddng.
5.2. Tdc dpng din xd hpi
5.2.1. Y kiin ddnh gid cita nguai di cu vi tdc dpng din xd hpi
Tac dgng tieh cue v l xa hdi ciia ngudi di eu den dja phuang noi d i n dugc khao sat lien quan den y
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Hinh 2: Ty le ngudi dl cu co y kiin danh gia tac dong ciia dl cu
dil voi phat triin xa hoi d dja phuotig la quan trong . Mang den nai day net dep van hoa
Phat huy hieu qua cua he thong giao due nai day Phat huy hieu qua ciia he thong y te a nai day Gop phan lam tang cac benh LTQDTD do quan he Lam qua tai he thong giao due noi day Lam qua tai he thong y te tai noi day Lam qua tai he thong ha tang giao thong Hay vi pham luat giao thong, di lai "bira bai"
Hay uong m'oai va lai xe gay tai nan giao thong L Gay mat trat tir xa hoi nai day do ngirtri di cu hay.. I Nguai di cu lay cap ciia nhau gay Ion xon xa hoi i
49.4 D 53.9 U 54.8
D 35.2
D 78.1 ] 76.8 D 72.4 I 70.4
D 74.7 D 72.8 D 72.5
Nguon: Dieu tra cita Vien Ddn so vd cdc vdn dexd hpi (2015)
te, giao dye va cae net dep ve van boa. Ket qua cho thay mirc do tac ddng den xa hdi dugc danh gia thap hon so vdi tac ddng ve kinh te. Ddng gdp tich cyc ve xa hdi dugc danh gia quan trpng nhat la "ngudi di cu giup phat huy hieu qua cua he thdng y te (54,8%)), tiep den la "giup phat huy hieu qua ciia he thdng giao due (53,9%))... Khoang 50% ngudi cd y kien danh gia la ngudi di cu mang den noi mdi net dep van hoa.
Ngudi di cu danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua di cu den phat trien xa bdi d noi den manh han so vdi tac ddng tich cyc (tren 70%o so vdi tren 50%)). "Gdp phan lam tang cac berth lay trayen qua dudng tinh due do cd nhflng quan he tinh due khdng an toan" la tac ddng dupe danh gia quan trpng vdi mdt ty le cao nhat (78,1%)). Nhdm thit hai la cac tac ddng "Lam qua tai he thdng giao dye" (76,8%); "Lam qua tai he thdng y te " (72,4%)). Nhdm thir ba dupe ti'en 70%o ngudi di cu danh gia la quan trpng gdm "Hay vi pham luat giao thdng" (74,7%); "Hay udng ragu, lai xe gay tai nan" (72,8%) va "Gay mat trat to xa hdi do hay gay r l i , danh nhau" (72,5%)). Chi cd 35,2%) ngudi dugc phdng van danh gia ngudi di cu da tac ddng tieu cyc den xa hdi do "trdm cap dd cua nhau va gay ldn xdn xa hdi"
5.2.2. Nhirng nhdn td dnh hied-ngykiin ddnh gid ciia nguai di cu vi tdc dpng tai xd hpi
Ve y kien ddnh gid tdc dpng tich cue, kit qua phan tich hdi quy cho thay ngbl nghiep hien tai cua
ngudi di cu cd tac ddng den y kien danh gia. Lao ddng to do, lao ddng trong hd gia dinh va ngu'di ed trinh dp chuyen mdn to bac 3 trd xudng danh gia di cu cd tac ddng tich cyc den cac ITnh -vyc xa hdi manh hon nhfl'ng ngu'di cd trinh dp chuyen mdn va nghe nghiep cao. Ket qua nay cho thay chi cd nhiing ngudi di cu cd trinh dp hpc van, chuyen mdn, nghe nghiep cao mdi nhin thay "ap lyc" ctia di cu ddi vdi xa hpi d noi den. Vdi nhan thitc nay, quyet djnh di cu cua nhung ngudi cd trinh dp hpc van, chuyen mdn, nghe nghiep cao se "khd khan" hon. Nhung ngudi cd thu nhap cang cao thi danh gia anh hudng tich cyc cua di cu den xa hdi d nai den cang cao.
Lien quan den yeu td quan niem xa hdi, nhiing ngudi di cu cho la cd it nha may cdng trudng, it cdng ty nudc ngoai d dja phuang noi den lai danh gia di cu ddng gdp tich cyc cho phat trien xa hdi cao hon. Nhflng ngudi cho rang djch vy cupc sdng d nai den ehua tdt danh gia ddng gdp cua di cu vao cac tac ddng xa hdi mang tinh tich cue cao hon, vi chinh hg da gdp phan cai thien dich -vu cudc sdng tai noi den.
Lien quan den yeu td mang ludi xa hdi, nhiing ngudi di cu duac trp giup ve chd d hay nhflng ngudi khdng can trg giup tam ly, khdng can trg giiip ve an ninh danh gia ddng gdp tich cyc cua di cu den phat trien xa hdi d noi den manh ban.
Lien quan den yeu td hoa nhap xa hdi, nhiing ngudi kem hda nhap vdi cdng ddng nai den lai danh gia ddng gdp tich cyc ctia di cu tdi phat trien xa hdi
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manh hon. Cd thi do kem hda nhap cdng ddng, thieu thdng tin ma ngudi di cu cho rang hp lam phat huy hieu qua ciia he thdng y te va giao due tai noi din. Thyc tl, tai vung Ddng Nam Bd he thdng giao due dang chju nhiing "ap luc" to tich tu dan sd nhanh. Nhieu tradng tieu hpc, trang hpe ca sd phai hpc 3 ca lien tac hoac phai nang sy sd hpc sinh cho mdt Idp.
Ve y kiin ddnh gid tdc dpng tiiu cue, trong nhdm yeu td thudc dac trung nhan khau hpc, chi cd bien sd "nai lam viec" la cd y nghTa thdng ke. Nhung danh gia tac dpng tieu cyc den xa hdi ciia ngudi di cu Idn nhat la d nhdm ngudi lao ddng to do va lao dpng gia dinb, trong khi cdng nhan va can bd quan ly lam viec trong cac khu cdng nghiep danh gia anh hudng tieu cue ve xa hdi it hon.
Trong nhdm cac yeu td lien quan den quan diem ve phat trien kinh te, xa hdi va cdng ddng, neu ngudi di cu cho la "khdng dupe chu doanh nghiep quan tam dao tao" danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua ngudi di cu den xa hdi ldn hon. Nhung ngudi cd quan diem "djch vu cudc sdng d nai den tdt va cd nhilu khu vui choi giai tri" hay "he thing berth vien va y te xa/phudng tdt" da cho rang ngudi di cu cd anh huong tieu cue den cac van de xa hdi d mite thip.
Lien quan den mang ludi xa hpi, nhdm ngudi di cu khdng nhan dugc dupe hd trp vl nha d va cac trg giiip khac danh gia tac ddng cua ngudi di cu din xa hpi theo hudng tieu cyc nhieu ban. Nhung ngudi can sy trg giup ve tam ly danh gia ngudi di cu mang den nhieu anh hudng tieu cue cho xa hpi hon nhflng ngudi khdng can su trg giup nay. Nhdm ngudi khdng nhan dugc su trp giup vl an ninh, tranh xam pham danh gia di cu cd anh hudng tieu cue din xa hdi manh nhat. Nhung ngudi di cu cd quan he than thilt vdi ngudi dan ban dja danh gia di cu it cd anh hudng tieu cyc tdi xa hpi ban.
6. Kit luan va mgt sl ham y chinh sach 6.1. Kit luan
Ddng Nam Bp la vung cd tic dp do thj hda, cdng nghiep hda va miic dp tich to dan sl nhanh nhit trong ca nudc trong nhung nam vita qua. Mtt'c dp tich tu dan sl vao vung Ddng Nam Bp diln ra manh nhat vao giai doan 2004-2009. Budc sang giai doan 2009-2014, mirc dp tich ta dan sl cd xu hudng giam dan song van din diu cac vung trong ca nudc.
Dudi gdc nhin cua chinh ban than ngudi di cu, ngudi dieu din nhilu da gdp phin tac dpng tich cyc
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den kinh tl, xa hdi cua dja phuang. Tac ddng tich eye ve kinh te dugc danh gia manh ban tac ddng ve xa hdi. Theo y kiln eua khoang 2/3 ngudi di eu, ddng gdp manh nhat cua di cu tai vimg den la giiip ngudi dan dja phuang giau len do phat tiien cae djch -vy, tiep den la bii dap thieu hyt lao ddng, sau khi cd thu nhap tit va In djnh cudc sdng, ngudi di cu lai dung vln tiet kiem tiep toe tai dau to vdn eho phat triln san xuat va gdp phan phat trien cac nganh nghi. Mdt gdc dp nao dd, di cu den cflng giiip phat huy hieu qua he thdng y te noi den, giup phat huy hieu qua cua he thdng giao due vdi nhieu loai hinh giao dye dugc md ra de dap img nhu cau hpc tap eiia ngudi dan. Khoang mgt nira sd ngudi cho rang ngu'di di cu mang den noi mdi net dep van boa.
Tuy nhien, ben eanh dd, khoang hon 2/3 sd ngudi cho rang ngudi di cu gdp phan lam tang cac benh lay trayen qua dudng tinh due do cd nhung quan he tinh due khdng an toan; lam qua tai he thdng giao due; lam qua tai be thdng y te; hay vi pham luat giao thdng; hay udng ragu, lai xe gay tai nan; gay mit trat to xa hdi do hay gay rdi, danh nhau. Chi co khoang 1/3 ngudi di cu danh gia ngudi di cu da tac dpng tieu eye den xa hdi do trdm eip dl eua nhau va gay ldn xdn xa hdi d noi eu tni mdi.
6.2. Hdm y chinh sdch
Tit cac ket luan tren, nhdm nghien cuu dl xuit mdt sd ham y chinh sach sau:
Can tinh toan cac ddng lyc di cu gifla cae vimg va nhap cu vao Ddng Nam Bd trong thdi gian tdi dl xay dyng kl hoach va chinh sach sit dung lao ddng phil hgp vdi cac muc tieu phat triln kinh tl - xa hpi chung cda dat nudc va cua vung Ddng Nam Bd.
Tao dieu kien de ngudi lao ddng nbap cu din dja phuong cd the hda nhap cdng ding thdng qua viec van ddng hp tham gia sinh hoat ddng ding va trg giup td chitc cac cudc giao luu giita ngudi dan dja phuang va ngudi di cu.
Uy ban nhan dan va Sd Lao ddng ciia cac tinh/thanh phd ddn tiep lao ddng cin lien he vdi cac doanh nghiep de nim bit nhu ciu lao ddng thyc tl va thanh lap cac trang tam gidi thieu viec lam cung cap thdng tin nay den rdng rai ngudi lao ddng ndi chung va lao ddng di eu. Cin thanh lap cac co quan, bd phan cdng tac xa hdi dl dap img nhu ciu trg giup tam ly va bao ve anb ninh cho ngudi lao dgng ndi chung va ngudi di eu mdi ndi rieng. O
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Ldi thira nhSn/cam on: Nghien cuu nay dugc tai trg bdi Quy Phat triln Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe qudc gia (NAFOSTED) trong d l tai ma s l II.6.2-2012.01
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