2 I T n r o n g Nfinli Tuan
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Truong Minli Tuan
Trucmg Dai hoc Kinh le TP.HCM Ngaj nhan 24/07/2013 ,n„^,an ^^.^^ edu vn Ngay nhan lai 05/09/2013
Ngay duyet dang 25/11/2013 M a s o 07-13-01^-16
Tdm tat
LcmipiuU va taug trif&ng liwb ie la fwi clu so liinh levTmo giian Irong Moi quan he giua hoi chi so nay tdc dong den nhieu mdf cna nen kinh ti nhir liet kiem. ddu lir. muc song cua nguai ddn Bdi Viet ndy nghien ciru moi tirang quan gnra Igm phdt va tdng truovg kinh te a ^7\' thong qua viec kiem dinh moi quan he nhdn qua trong mo hinh hoi quy da bien gom: Igm phdt, tdng IruoTig kinh te. gid ddu. cung tien vd li gid hoi dodi Bdi viet sic dung mo hinh VAR vd ECMde kiem dinh moi quan he nhdn qud vd tim ra mdi tuong quan giua Igm phdt vd tdng tnrong kinh le trong ngdn han vd ddi han Kel qud nghien ciin cho thdy co inoi quan he ddi hgn giua Igm phdt vd fdng truovg kinh le. De ihuc hien muc lieu lang trucmg kinh te f>en vimg. cdn co chien luac phdt tnen kinh le lir ngdn han den ddi han iheo huang ini lien phdt trien kmh le trong ngdn hgn de tgo dd kiem che lgm phdt trong ddi iuin.
Tir khoa: Lain phat. tang trudng kinh te. GDP, tang trudng ben vQ'ng, mo hinh VAR, md hinh ECM,
Abstract
liifhilion and economic growth are ttvo important macroeconomic indexes, rclalianship between lhe.se indexes affect.', various a.specis ofthe economy, such as .saving, inveslmenl and living standard.
The paper presenls a research on relationship between injlation and economic growth in Vietnam through the lest for causal relationship in the multiple regression model with variables representing inflation, economic growth, oil price, money supply and exchange rate. VAR and EC.VI models are used lo test for cau.sal relationship and identify' relationship between inflation and economic growth m short and long run. The results show a long-run relationship between inflation & economic growth. In order lo pursue the economic growth, il is necessary to develop the economy from a short run lo a long run. especially the economic growth in a short run lo control injlation in a long run.
Keywords: Iiillalion, economic growth, GDP, sustainable growth. VAR. ECM
.,(;.;/(^•'27S(I2 2013)02-12
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1. Gidi thieu
Lam phal cao dugc coi la van de kinh te - xa hgi rat nghiem trgng anh hurdfng den tiet kiem, dau tu. tang tnrong kinh te. Lam phat cao se lam giam nhjp do tang tnrdng kinh te, mat kha nang thuc hien nhung ke hoach dai han ciia qudc gia. Mat khac, neu lam phat dugc duy tri d mgt ti le hgp li thi nd tro thanh mgt nhan td cd lgi cho su phat trien kinh iL Theo do, nhi6u nghien ciiu khac nhau ve su anh huong qua lai giira tang trudng va lam phat vdi cac phuang phap khac nhau da dugc cong bo. MalHk & Chowdhury (2001) da sii dung hoi quy dong lien kit va md hinh sai so hieu chinh de xem xet moi quan he cung chieu giira tang trudng va lam phat trong dai han tai bon nudc Nam A la Bangladesh, An Do, Pakistan va Srilanka. Them vao dd, Faria & Carneiro (2001) cung sir dung kiem djnh nghiem don vi dugc de xuat bdi Dickey &
Fuller (1979) va phuong phap phan tich phuang sai dua tren mo hinh VAR cho thay lam phat khdng anh hudng den san lugng thuc te trong dai han, tuy nhien trong ngan han thi su anh hudng ciia lam phat den san lugng thuc te lai mang dau am.
Con d VN, mgt so tac gia cung ting dung phuong phap phan tich chuoi thdi gian de tim hieu moi quan he giua lam phal va lang truong kinh le. Vo Tri Thanh & cgng sir (2001) phan lich moi quan he giCra cung lien, lam phat, ti gia hdi doai va tang irucmg kinh le trong khoang ihdi gian 1992-1999. Kel qua cho thay chinh sach lien le chi chay theo nhung chuyen bien ciia lam phal va lang iruong kinh te. Nguyen Thi Thu Hang & Nguyen Due Thanh (2010) sii dung mo hinh ECM de phan tfch moi quan he giu'a cac bien: chi sd gia tieu diing (CPI). san lugng san xual cong nghiep, khdi tien M2, tang iruang tin dung, lai suat. chi sd gia san xuat, tham hut ngan sach, gia trj giao dich ciia thi trudng chimg khoan, chi sd gia nhap khau. gia dau the gidi. gia gao the gidi iCr 2000-2010. Tac gia phat hien lam phat trong qua khir la nhan tdquan trgng nhat quyel djnh lam phat trong hien tai. Do do, can nghien cuu mot each sau sac su tac dgng qua lai giQ'a tang Irudng va lam phat d VN nham tim ra bien phap dn dinh lam phat va thuc day lang irudng kinh te.
Bai nghiiin ciin tap trung vao viec phan lich mdi quan he giCra lam phat va lang truang kinh te trong ngan han cCing nhu trong dai han d VN. Bang viec su dung du- lieu theo quy a VN lir Quy 1/2001 den Quy IV/201 I, nghien ciru sir dung phuang phdp phan lich phuang sai dua tren md hinh VAR va md hinh sai sd hieu chinh ECM de kiem dinh moi quan he giua lam phal vii lang trudng kinh te trong mo hinh hdi quy da bien. Diem khac biet ciia nghien ciru la c6 su ket hgp giua phan tich trong ngan han va dai han. Do do. ket qua nghien ciru dua ra ca sd quan li lam phat phuc vu muc lieu \ay dung chinh sach lang Irudng kinh te dn djnh va ben vCrng.
2. C iic nghien cuu thuc nghiem ve moi quan he giua lam phat \a tang truoTig kinh te Co nhieu nghien ciru thuc nghiem da chi ra mdi quan he duang giua lam phal va tang irudng kinh t l Ben canh do. mgt sd nghien ciiu khac lai chi ra mdi quan he am gitia hai chi so kinh te
\T md na)' va cac nghien ciru khac lai khdng tim ra moi quan he tuyen tinh giCra lam phat va lang trudng kinh te. Cu the:
Mundell (1963) \a Tobin (1965) nhan manh lam phat la nguyen nhan lam cho con ngudi tranh giir tidn ma chu>en thanh cac tai san sinh Idi. theo md hinh na\ giira lam phat va tang trudng CO mdi quan he ti le thuan. Bd sung them cho quan diem tren, nha kmh le hgc Sidrauski (1967) cho ring khi cac bien sd ddc lap vdi viec tang cung lien trong dai han thi viec tang lam
Tjp chi Phdi men liinli le 2
4 I Trirong Minli Tuan
phat khdng anh hudng dan tang trudng kinh te. Mo hinh cua Stockman (1981) cho rang lam phat lang cao se lam cho tang trudng giam.
Milton Fredman (1959) khing dinh lam phat la san phim cua viec tang cung tien hoac tang he sd tao tien d muc ldn hon toe do tang trudng kinh te; nghia la trong dai han gia ca bj anh hudng bdi cung tien chu khong thirc SLT lae dgng len tang trudng; neu cung tien tang nhanh hon tdc do tang trudng thi lam phat tit ydu se xay ra: neu giii cung tien va he sd tao tien dn djnh thi tang trudng eao se lam giam lam phat.
Fisher (1993), Barro (1996), Bruno & Easterly (1998) da tim thay quan he am giiia lam phat va lang irudng. Ndi ti8p cac kk qua tren, rit nhieu nha nghien cuu bing cac phuang phap khac nhau da cdng bd anh hudng qua lai giira tang trudng va lam phat: Mallik & Chowdhury (2001) sti dung hdi quy dong lien ket va md hinh sai so hieu chinh ECM; Faria & Carneiro (2001) cung sii dung kiSm dinh nghiem don vi ADF va phuong phap phan tich phuang sai dira tren md hinh VAR,.. nhan thiy lam phal khong anh hudng den san lugng thuc ti trong dai han, tuy nhien trong ngin han thi su anh hudng ciia lam phat den san lugng thue te lai mang dau am.
3. Khao sat moi quan he giira lam phat va tang trirdng kinh te
Nhin chung, tinh hinh lam phat va lang trudng kinh t£ d VN trong giai doan 1999-2011 cd nhung dien bien phirc tap. Giai doan Irude nam 2007, ca 2 chi sd dSu cd xu hudng lang, tuy nhien trong giai doan sau 2007. toe do tang tru'dng kinh te co khuynh hudng giam nhe trong khi tinh hinh lam phat bien dgng manh trong giai doan nay.
25 20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Hinh 1. Tinh hinh lam phat va tang tru'dng kinh te d VN ( giai doan 1999-2011) Ngudn: IMF
Co the thay miic lam phat thay ddi tuong img vdi tdc do tang trudng GDP. Khoang thdi gian tir 1999 den 2003, do anh hudng cugc khiing hoang kinh te chau A nam 1997-1998, ti le lang trudng rat thap, tham chi tang irudng am nam 2000. CCmg ihdi gian do. lam phal cung xoay quanh li le tuong ddi Ihap. dac biet nam 2000 da danh dau la nam giam phat thap nhat trong ljch sir.
Khoang Ihdi gian tir nam 2003 den 2007, lam phal lien luc duy tri d mirc dudi 10%, miic c6 the xem la chap nhan duge, lac dgng tich cue den nen kinh le. Ben canh nguyen nhan do gia dau the gidi tang, con co mgt nguyen nhan quan trgng khac la do sir phuc hdi cua nen kinh te the gidi lac ddng tich cue den tang trudng d VN. Vdi li le tang GDP hang nam tir 7%-8%, VN trd thanh nudc cd toe do lang trudng cao ciia the gidi. Tuy nhien, den khi khiing hoang kinh te the gidi nd
I .ir Ji. Phawicn h'lh le 278 (12/2013)02-12
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ra nam 2008, cd the thay su thay doi tuang ling giira lam phat va tdc do tang trudng, ti le tang GDP giam manh tir 7,8% nam 2007 xuong cdn tren 5%. Cung vdi dd la muc tang lam phat ky luc 28.2% vao thang 8/2008 da danh dau viec dat nudc chinh thirc bude vao thdi k\ kinh td khd khan.
Nam 2011, ti le lam phat la 18,13%. Cd the thay vi deo dudi muc tieu tang trudng cao trong nhieu nam, Chinh phii da khdng ngimg ndi Idng chinh sach tai khda va chfnh sach tien te. Tuy nhien, chinh viec ndi Idng den mat kiem soai nay da lam nay sinh rat nhieu lieu circ. Nguon von ngan hang thay vi chay vao cae cong trinh xay dung hoac phuc Igi xa hgi, da chay tii ngan hang nay sang ngan hang khac va lai suat lien tuc tang cao den mii'c doanh nghiep khdng the tiep can vdi ngudn vdn ca ban nay.
4. Phircmg phap nghien ciru va ket qua nghien cu-u 4.1. Phitffngphdp nghien citu
Nghien euu sir dung dong thdi phucmg phap hdi quy ddng lien ket, md hinh sai so hieu chinh (ECM) va phuong phap phan tich phucmg sai dua tren md hinh VAR de xem xet moi quan he giCfa tang trudng va lam phal d VN trong ngan han va dai han.
Quy trinh nghien ciru dugc thuc hien nhu sau:
Budc 1: Thu thap dir lieu;
Budc 2: Kiem djnh tinh dirng cua day sd thdi gian. Neu la chuoi dirng, chuyen sang budc 4;
neu la chudi khdng dimg Ihi Ihuc hien budc 3;
Bu'dc 3: Sir dung sai phan de dua chudi thdi gian tir khdng dirng thanh chuoi dii'ng.
Bude 4: Lira ehgn md hinh chi liet trong md hinh ECM va VAR;
Budc 5: Kiem djnh mdi quan he nhan qua giu'a iam phat va tang trudng kinh te, 4.2. Mo ta da- lieu
Nghien ciiu nay sir dung md hinh hdi quy da bien cua McCarth}' (2006) de danh gia mdi quan he giu'a lam phat va tang luang kinh te dua tren viec phan tich ehudi thai gian va tim hieu tac dong eiia eae cu sde vao trong chi sd gia. Trong mo hinh na)'. chl sd gia a thdi ky t dugc gia djnh chiu anh hudng bdi mdt sd yeu td sau:
- Y6u to thu nhal la tae ddng ctia cu soc eau. Khi eau tang len se gay ra ap luc lam gia lang len. Do dd. khi ky vgng GDP tang len se lao ra tam Ii anh lurdna lam lam phat tang len.
- Y^u Id thir hai la tac ddng ciia eii sdc cung. NhCrng )eu td tir phia cung se lam cho chi phi thay ddi va do dd lam cho gia ca dau ra tang len. Gia djnh trong thdi gian ngan va xet trong mgt thi tru'dng nhd thi cac ydu td trong nudc tac dgng vao phia cung khdng thay ddi Do dd, cdc cii soc tac dgng vao phi'a cung chii yeu la lir ben ngoai. C) day. su thay ddi trong gid dau the gidi dugc gia djnh la ed tac dgng Idn nhit vao cu sdc cung vi day la nguon nguyiin lieu quan trgng phuc vu cho qua trinh san xudi.
- VSu id thir ba la tac ddng eua cii sdc tien te. Ve mat li thuyet. lam phat la hien tugng ma lugng tidn thuc ik trong luu thdng \ ugt qua nhu cau. Do dd. sir tha) ddi trong cung lien se ga\
ra nhiJng anh hudng tryc lidp vao ti le lam phdt, Ben canh dd. su thay ddi tiony Lung nen cung lam cho ihu nhap thay ddi va do dd cau cung tha\' ddi. mgi lan nira tdc ddng gd> i.i cii sni. can
- Yeu td thir tu la tac dgng ciia cu sdc ti gia hoi doai. Khi ti gia hoi doai thay ddi se anh hudng den chi phi dau vao ddi vdi nhdm san xuit cd ydu td nudc ngoai. Do dd, su thay dot nay se tao ra cti sdc cung gay ap lire lam tang lam phat.
- Yeu td thli nam la tac dgng cua cii soc lai suit. Khi lai suit thay ddi se anh hudng den lugng tien thuc te trong luu Ihdng vi se tac dgng vao cau tien. Do do, eu sdc lai suat se tao ra cu sdc tien le.
Nhu vay, lam phat dugc viet lai dudi ham sd sau:
CPI =f(GDP, OIL, M2, E, R) (I) Trong dd, gia diu ihd gidi (OIL) dai dien eho cu sdc eung. GDP thirc (GDP) dai dien cho cii
sdc cau, mue cung tien (M2), ti gia hdi doai danh nghTa da phuong (E), ehi sd gia lieu diing (CPI), lai suit (R).
Ben canh dd, ket qua nghien cuu cua Ito & Sato (2006) cho cac qudc gia dang phat trien da chirng minh rang co the loai bd yeu lo lai sual ma van khdng phd vd tinh hgp If ciia md hinh, Ben canh do. Vo Tri Thanh & edng sir (2001) phan tich moi quan he giira cung tien, Iam phat, ti gia hdi doai va tang trudng kinh t^ Irong khoang thdi gian 1992-1999. Ket qua cho thay chinh sdch lien te chi chay iheo nhung chuyen bien ciia lam phdt va tang Irudng kinh le. Nguyen Thj Thu Hang & Nguyen Diic Thanh (2010) sir dung md hinh ECM de phan tich mdi quan he giira cac bien: CPI, san luong sdn xuat cdng nghiep, M2, tang irudng tin dung, Iai sual. chi sd gia san xuat, tham hut ngan sdch, gid trj giao djch eiia thj trudng ehimg khoan, chi sd gid nhap khau, gia dau the gidi. gia gao the gidi tir 2000-2010. Tae gid tim ra lam phal irong qud khu la nhan td quan trong nhal quyet djnh lam phat trong hien tai,
Tir dd, la thay vdi viec cd dua them bien lai suat vao md hinh hay khdng thi ket qua van khdng thay ddi. Dieu nay duge giai thieh la do lai suat d VN van con dugc quan li mgt cdch rat chat che, lai sudl Ihj trudng va lai suat cdng bd van edn chenh lech nhieu.
Do dd. phuang irinh (I) duoc viet lai thanh:
CPI ^f(GDP, OIL, M2, E) (2) De thuc hien udc lugng. ta tien hanh bien ddi phuang irlnh (2) thanh phuang trinh hoi quy
nhu sau:
Trong do:
I -dCPl/CPI: Cu sde trong lam phdt;
G ^dGDP/GDP: Cii soc trong tdng san pham qudc ndi thyc (cu sdc cau);
OIL -dOIL/OIL: Cii s6c trong gia diu;
M ^dNI2/M2: Cii sde Irong cung lien;
E ^dE/E : Cli sdc irong ti gia hdi doai (eii sdc cung);
Phuang trinh (3) eho thay bien I phu Ihugc vao ede bidn: G. OIL, M, E. Tren co sd dd ta cd phuong trinh thdng ke nhu sau:
' 0 ' ' ' ' ^ ' ^ ' (4)
:78OZ2OI3)02-12
Tniong Mmh Tuan | 7
Nhu vay, qua irinh kiem djnh dugc thyc hien qua cac budc:
Budc 1: Kiem dinh tinh dimg cua chudi thdi gian ddi vdi cdc bien irong md hinh bang phucmg phap kiem dinh nghiem don vj;
Budc 2: Kiem djnh tinh ddng lien ket;
Budc 3 Udc lugng md hinh sai sd hieu chinh ECM de phan lich mdi quan he irong dai han giira lam phat va tang trudng;
Budc 4: Kiem djnh mdi quan he nhan qua giira lam phal va lang trudng kinh te.
De tien hanh qud trinh kiem djnh, cae bien trong md hinh dugc thu ihap du' lieu hang quy trong khodng Ihdi gian tii' Quy I/200I den Quy IV/2011, Ngudn dd lieu vacac xae djnh dulieu ban dau nhu sau:
- CPI: Sir dung chi sd gia tieu diing dugc dieu chinh ve ky gdc (Quy i/2001). [I]
- Tang tru'dng kinh te. Su dung GDP ihyc theo quy dugc cung cap tir trang Vietnam Repori.
[2]
- Gid dau (OIL): Gid dau the gidi dugc linh theo ddng USD. [3]
- Cung li6n (M): Su dung khoi lien M2. [4]
- Ti gid hoi dodi: Su dung ti gia hoi doai danh nghTa da phuang. [4]
Tai ca du' Ueu deu dugc dieu chinh ve dang logarit
Bang I. Thong ke dir lieu trong md hinh
Lnl LnG LnOIL LnM LnE
Trung binh Trung vi Giatri lan nhat Gia tri nho nhat So quan sat
4.626687 1,900292 3.97,1-119 4,620551 1,945910 4.090797 4,691348 2,140066 4.819983 4,588024 1.131402 3,015682
1.340467 9.715907 1,341341 9.677570 1,757822 9.951162 0.959025 9,585162
44 44 44 44 44
Ngudn: Tac gia tu tinh toan tir mpt so ngu6n. M.E* World Bank, G Vietnam Report, 1: Tong cue Thong ke, OIL: Federal Reserve Bank of ST.Louis
4.3. Ket qud kiem dinh 4 3 L Kiem dinh nghiem don vi
Trudc khi lien hanh chgn md hinh chi uk va do ludng moi quan he giua tang truong kinh le va lam phdt. tac gia su dung phuang phap ADF de kiem dinh tinh diing cua cac bien,
Ket qua kiem djnh nghiem don vj nhu sau:
Bang 2. K^t qua kiem dinh nghiem don vi Bifn
ADF
Chu6i g6c 1(0) P-value Ket qua
Chuoi sai phan bac ADF P-viilue
1 1(1) Ket qua Lnl
LnG
-4,596716 0.0006 Dirng
-0.447435 0.5151 Khong dtrr -6.846327 0,0000 IXing
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InOlL InM InE
1.194346 1,461478 2,636356
0,9379 0.9619 0,9974
Khong dimg Khong dung Khong dimg
-5.588862
•2.108737 -4.075829
0,0000 0,0352 0,0027
Dimg Dimg Dimg Ngudn: Tac gia tir tinh toan bang phan mem Eview
K5l qua kidm djnh cho thiy cac chuoi thdi gian trong md hinh ngoai chuoi lnl la chuoi dimg, cac chuoi cdn iai deu la chuoi khdng dimg. Tuy nhien. ede chudi sai phan bac 1 cua InG, InOlL, InM va InE deu la chuoi dimg. Nhu \ ay. cd the ton tai mdi quan he ddng lien ket trong dai han giira ede bien irong md hinh.
4 3.2 Xdc dmh linh ddng Hen kit vd kiem dinh moi quan he trong ddi hgn giira Idng Iruang kinh te vd lam phdi
Kel qud udc lugng phuang irinh hdi quy (4) theo phuang phap OLS nhu sau:
Lnl = 3,27-i- 0,()04*LnG + 0,047'^LnOIL - 0,104*LnM + 0,134-^LnE + W/ (5)
Tiep theo. kiem dinh tinh dimg ciia chudi W/.Neu Ui la chudi dirng thi cac bien trong md hinh cd quan he ddng lien kel.
Ket qud kiem djnh:
ADF 1% level 5% level 10% level P-value Ketqua -6,001965 -3,596616 -2,933158 -2.604867 0.0000 Dimg Nhu vay. giira lam phat va tang trudng kinh te cd mdi quan he ddng kien ket. luc la cd mdi quan he can bang dai han giira hai bien nay Tat nhien trong ngan han cd sy mat can bang. Do dd. ta cd the coi sd hang sai sd u^ la sai sd can bang. Co che hieu chinh sai sd dugc su dung dau tien bdi Sargan (1964)
Ket qua udc lugng phuang trinh ECM (5) nhu sau:
Lnl = 4,63 - 0,0373*D(LnG) + 0,059''D(LnOIL) - 0,085*D(LtiM) + 0,2WD(LnE) + 0,47 U^l + £t (6)
Ket qud iren chi ra rang sy thay ddi ngan han ciia lang trudng kinh td cd anh hudng ngugc chieu len tang trudng va khoang 47%) sai biel giira cdc gid trj Ihuc te va gia trj dai han cua tang trudng dugc loai trii' sau mdi quy. Vdi p-value ciia tham so sai so hieu chinh nay la 0,000262 ihl hien kham pha nay cd y nghTa ve mat thdng ke d mire y nghTa 1%.
Ben eanh do. md binh tren eung chi ra rang tang trudng kinh te va lam phat cd mdi quan he ddng lien ket vdi he sd ddng lien ket la-0,373 (vdi p-value = 0,0143). Nhu vay, cd thd thiy moi quan he giira tang tru'dng kinh te va lam phdt trong dai han la nghjch bidn ddng thdi gia trj tuyet ddi ciia he sd nay nhd hon I chiing td trong dai ban. lam phdt se giam it han so vdi ldc do tang ciia GDP.
4.3 3 Kiem dinh moi quan he nhdn qua Granger giua lgm phdt vd Idng tncang kmh te Trong md hinh VAR da bien, viec kiem djnh mdi quan he nhan qud Granger cho la bilt dugc su ihay ddi cua I bien trong md hinh chiu sir tdc dgng ciia cac biln nao. Kdt qua kidm djnh moi quan he nhan qud trong md hinh VAR nhu sau:
l i n t h i /•'!,;'/'/.'^p^,/i/(/c 2 7 8 ( 1 2 / 2 0 1 3 ) 0 2 - 1 2
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Gid Ihuyel Ho: lnl khong phu thudc vao dlnG dugc chap nhan vdi chi-sqrare = 5,962205. gia tri p-value = 0,2020
Gid thuyet Ho: dlnG khdng phu thugc vao lnl bj bac bd vdi chi-sqrare ^ 8.897430. gid tri p- value = 0,0637 (y nghTa thong ke 10%))
Bang 3. Ket qua kiem djnh quan he nhan qua Granger trong md hinh \ A R Bien phu
thu9C lnl dlnG dInOlL dInM InE Toan the
lnl
5,962205 6,423679 2,229142 3,694959 20,91048
dlnG
8,897430«"
3,680419 18,73517*
2,932029 89,240I9»
dInOlL
7.581393 4.544637
3,841061 16,09446*
49.18380*
dInM
8.00.5483***
3,586598 7.481606
0,981178 20.43105
dInE
5.995952 0.689660 3.173470 0.189476
17.96356 Ghi chii: * co y nghTa 1%, ** c6 y nghTa 5%, *** co y nghTa 10%
Nguon. T^c gia tu tinh toan bang phan mem I^view
Nhu vay, cd the thay Irong ngan han. tdc do tang irudng kinh tc ehiu anh hudng bdi lam phal.
Tuy nhien, nghien cuu chi ra rang tdc dgng ngugc lai la lam phal anh hudng den lang trudng kinh te la khdng ed y nghTa thdng ke.
5. Phan tich ket qua
Ket qud thu duge thdng nhat vdi cdc nghien ciru ciia: Fischer (1993), Barro (1996), Bruno &
Easterly (1998), Khan & Scnhadji (2001), ddng thdi ed sukhac biel vdi nhirng nghien ciru cua Tobin (1965). Mallik & Chowdhury (2001). Faria & Carneiro (2001). Nguyen Trung Chinh (2009) da cdng bo. Kdt qua phan tich cho thiy giua tang trudng kinh te va lam phdt cd mdi quan he nghjch biln trong ca dai han va ngan han. Trong dai han. su thay ddi ciia lang trudng kmh te cham hon sy thay ddi trong lam pbdl. Tuy nhien, irong ngan han. sy thay ddi ctia lam phdt lai anh hudng ddn tde dd tang trudng kinh ll va mue thay ddi irong lam phat cao hon mirc thay ddi trong tang trudng kinh le.
Trong dai han. dua vdo kit qua udc Itrgng md hinh ECM va cac kel qua kiem dinh Engle- Granger (EG) hay Augmented Engle-Granger (AEG). Ta tha\- lam phdt vd tang trudng kinh te ddnglienkelvdt nhau theo quan he nghjch biln. Cu the, khi tang irudng kinhte lang l%ihi lam phat giam 0.037% va ngugc lai. Do dd. dl theo dudi muc tieu tang irudng ben ^flng can phai kiem che lam phdt trong dai ban.
Trong ngin han, dya vao ket qua udc lugng md hinh \'AR va kiem djnh mdi quan he nhan qua Granger giifa lam phat va tang trudng kinh tl, Ta thay tac ddng ciia tang trudng kinh tc den lam phdt trong ngin han khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke; tuy nhien. tang truang kinh te lai chju tdc dgng bdi lam phat theo quan he nghjch bien.
6. Ket luan va khuyen nghi 6.1. Tang tru&ng kinh te
10 I IririTng Minh luan
Kit qua kilm djnh ehi ra su thay ddi Irong tang trudng kinh te chju tac ddng nghjch ehieu vdi ti le lam phat. li gid hdi doai va thuan chieu vdi cung lien. Cu the:
Thi'r nhdt. khi ti gia hdi doai tang len. toe do tang trudng kinh te se cham lai. Dilu na)' dugc li giai dua tren ca ciu kinh te cua VN. khi ti gia hdi doai tang len, nhap khau bi thiet hai. Hon nira. nhap khiu lai chilm mdi ti trgng cao trong cdn can ihuong mai, lam anh hudng den gia ca diu vao ciia qua trinh san xuit, din din diu tu gidm va lang trudng cham Iai. Ben canh dd, ti gia hdi dodi tang cung ga\' dp lyc len dong von diu lu, lam sut giam lugng ihu hut dau tu nudc ngoai - tac nhan quan trgng gay ra sy sut giam trong vdn dau tu. Ngoai ra, khi ti gia hdi doai lang len se gay ra lam li cho cac nha diu lu \ i lo ngai ddng vdn di ra nhieu hon dong vdn di vao. tao da cho nhirng dgt riii vdn eiia cdc ddng vdn FDl.
Thi'r hai. l6c dd tang trudng kinh tl lai phdn iing ciing chieu vdi toe do gia tang cung lien. Kel qua nay cho ta thiy hien tai. nln kinh tl VN \an chua dat muc toan dung va rit can md rdng ngudn vdn de kich thieh tang irudng.
Tliu ha. ldc do lang trudng kinh tl Iai phdn iing ciing chieu vdi toe do lang truang trong qua khu. Kit qua ihuc nghiem nay chung minh tdc do tang trudng kinh le phdn ung vdi chinh chi tieu nay trong qua khu. Do do. can phai kien tri trong cac muc lieu lang trudng kinh te da dat ra de lao da cho sy phat trien kinh tc on djnh ben viing trong tucmg lai.
6.2. Liim phdt
Kdt qud nghien ciru cho thiy su thay ddi irong lam phal chiu lae ddng nghjch chieu vdi tang trudng kinh le va thuan chicu vdi tdc do lang trudng cua cung lien vd gia dau the gidi. Cu the:
Thir nhdt. khi tang trudng kinh t l tang len thi ii le lam phal cd chieu hudng gidm. Dieu ndy mdt lin nua ndi len ring nln kinh tl VN chua loan dung va day cung la mdt trong nhu-ng dieu kien quan trgng de thyc hien bicp phdp dimg lam phdt de chdng lai lam phat. Tuy nhien, hien tai van chua cd mgt cdng trinh nghien ciru nao dua ra mdt mire dy bao chinh xdc vc sy Ihay ddi lam phdt trong tuang lai. do dd, phdi het sire than trgng trong viec tha Idng chi sd gid tieu diing, Chinh sach quan li \T md can uu lien muc tieti lang trudng kinh te vi tang trudng kinh te se gdp phan lam cho lam phdi cd the dugc kiem ehe.
Thi'r hai. khi eung tien tang len se lam lam phal gia tang; luy nhien, muc anh hudng nay thdp han so vdi viec cung lien lang lam gia lang GDP. Do dd. trong viee gia tang cung lien, can can nhac vice ddnh ddi giu'a muc lieu lang trudng kinh le va muc tieu kiem che lam phal.
6.3. Viec xdy dung chinh sdch phuc vu muc tieu phdt trien kinh te on dinh vd hen vUng Ket qua udc Iugng md hinh \'AR va kiem dinh mdi quan he nhdn qua Granger cho thd)' mdi quan he trong ngan ban giti'a lam phdt va tiing trudng kinh te Tuy nhien, diem yeu cua md hinh nd)' la khong the nhan ra dugc xu hudng trong dai han giu'a ede chi sd kinh te vT md nay.
Ddi vdi \'iec xa\ dung chinh sach phuc \ u muc lieu phdt trien kinh te dn djnh ben virng. dieu quan trgng Id phai hicu dugc mdi quan he dai ban giu'a hai chi sd kinh te vT md quan trgng Id lam phdt vd lang tru'dng kinh te. Ket qud trdc Iirgng vd kiem dinh md hinh ECM ket luan mdi quan he nghjch bien giu'a lam phdt \a tang irudng kinh to cd he sd tuong quan -0,04 va mirc do sai biet vdo khoang 47" D
Nhu \;i\'. trong ngan han can day manh cac bien phdp dc thuc day tang Iruong kinh te va do dd sc kiem ehe dugc iam phdt. Xiic liln ede giai phap diing lam phat chdng lam phal de tan dung
Truong Mmh Tuan | 1 1
ngudn luc san c d . T h u c hien chinh sdch tien te m d rdng de gia tang vdn cho nen kinh t l . lir dd thuc day tang t r u d n g . K i e m soat chat che t i gid hdi doai de giir virng long tin vao gia trj ddng ndi te. thu hiit dugc cac ddng vdn nudc ngoai n h u F D l va O D A .
c i n xa\ d u n g ke hoach phat trien kinh te trong trung \ a dai han. T i le lam phdi cao se anh hudng xau den phat trien k i n h te, do dd can phdi cd c h i l n lugc phat t r i l n kinh t l tir n g i n han tdi dai han theo h u d n g uu tien phat trien kinh te irong n g i n han de lao da k i l m c h l lam phal trong dai han.
7. H a n che v a h u ' d u g n g h i e n c i r u t i e p t h e o
Nghien c i m cd nhu'ng ham < quan irgng trong ehi'nh sdch quan li vT m d . Dae biet la su k i t hgp giiia chinh sdch tien le va chinh sach tdi khda trong bicn phap diing lam phdt de chdng lam phal. Tuy nhien, nghien cuu cdn mdt sd han che nhu:
- Ngudn sd lieu: Sd lieu dugc tdng hgp tir nhieu nguon va thdi gian thu thap dif lieu cdn han che, Do dd khdng iranh khdi nhung sai sd trong qua trinh tap hgp dif Meu va tinh khach quan cua dif lieu ehua cao,
- Nghien cuu chua phan tfch \ a xdc djnh cac yeu td ldc ddng den lam phat va tang trudng kinh le mgt each chi l i e l ma chi phdn lich ldc dgng qua lai giua hai chi sd kinh te \T md ndy.
De bd sung vao nghien cun ndy cdn ihuc hien tiep theo mdt sd nghien ciru m a rdng \ e : - Cac nhan i d lac dgng den lam pbdl va md hinh quan li lam phdt a V N ,
- Cac nhan td lac dgng den tang i r u d n g kinh ic - M d hinh cho chinh sdch lam phdt muc lieu a V N ' "
G h i c h i i
[ 11 Tong cue thong ke VN
(2] htlp'.''vvwu violnam-rcpoil com/Viclnam-gdp-growth/, thang 12 2012 [3] Federal Reserve Bank of ST.Louis, hilp'//wwu'stiouisied oig . thang 12 2012 [4] Worid Bank
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