TnC DONG cun KHUNG HOflNG KINH T€ TH€ GI0I
D€'N HORT DONG XUnT, NHRP KHRU CUfl VI€T NflM
PGS, TS VO VAN D(irC<*'
N
en kinh te the gidi da va dang trai qua mdt thdi ky khimg hoang, cudc khung hoang kinh te lan nay rat nghiem trpng vl tie ddng rat ldn den ca quy md va tdc dp, trudc mat ciing nhu lau dai ve tai ehinh, dau tu, sin xuat, thuang mai, tieu diing, tir dd tie ddng rat xau den cic van de xa hdi nhu that nghiep, ngheo ddi, bat binh dang, d nhiem mdi trudng, siic khoe, nhat II ddi vdi cac nudc dang phat trien. Nen kinh te cua Viet Nam ciing da va dang chju anh hudng khdng nhd cua cudc khung hoang kinh te the gidi, true tiep la cle hoat ddng xuat, nhap khau.Tren thuc te, kim ngach xuat khau so vdi GDP ciia Viet Nam la khi cao: nam 2008, kim ngach hang hoi xuat khau udc tinh dat 62,9 ty USD, tuang duang 60% so vdi GDP (khoang 90 ty USD). Nam 2008 ciing danh dau sir tang dot bien cua FDI vao Viet Nam. Neu tinh ca 3,7 ty USD vdn dang ky tang them cua 311 du In cip phep tir cic nam trudc, thi nim 2008 ca nudc da thu hiit dugc 64 ty USD vdn dang ky, gip gan 3 lan nam 2007, dat miie cao nhit tir
'** van phong Dang uy, Hpc vien Chinh tri - Hanh chinh qupc gia Ho Chi Minh.
trudc den nay. Khu vuc cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai xuat khau dat 34,9 ty USD... Tuy nhien, cudi nam 2008 va nhung thing dau nam 2009, thi trudng va kim ngach xuat khau eua Viet Nam giam manh.
Trong cic thi trudng xuat khau ciia Viet Nam nam 2008, Hoa Ky la ddi tie ldn nhat.
Chi tinh 5 mat hang chu yeu cua nudc ta xuat khau sang Hoa Ky dat 11,6 ty USD (chiem 76% tdng kim ngach hang hoa xuat khau cua nudc ta sang thi trudng nay), gdm hing det may, dau thd, gd va san pham go, giay dep, thuy san. Kim ngach hang hoi xuat khau sang thi trudng ASEAN ca nim dat 10,2 ty USD, vdi cac mat hang chinh nhu dau thd, gao, thuy san, may tinh, san pham dien tir va linh kien. Thi trudng EU udc dat 10 ty USD vdi cac mat hang truyin thdng nhu hang det may, giay dep, ndng san, thuy hai san. Thi trudng Nhat Ban udc dat 8,8 ty USD, tap trung vao cac mat hang diu thd, gily dep, thuy san, may tinh va linh kien, day va cap dien.
Nhu vay, nhin chung tir trudc din nay chiing ta van xuat khau nhirng mat hang ma chiing ta cd lgi the ve gia nhan cdng re va dieu kien thien nhien uu dai nhu diu thd.
36 LV LUAN CHlNH TRI 8 - 2009
ndng lam, thuy hai san. Nhung tir cuoi nam 2008 va dau nim 2009, thj trudng cic nudc nay bj anh hudng cua khiing hoing kinh tl, nen nhu cau tieu diing giim, do vay cung Cling phii giim theo. Trong khi dd, nudc ta lai II nude nhap sieu. Nam 2008, kim ngach hing hoi nhap khiu dat 80,4 ty USD, tang 28% so vdi nam 2007, tdc dp tang nhanh hon miic tang cua xuat khiu. Nhap sieu nim 2008 udc tinh 17,5 ty USD, tang 24,7% so vdi nam 2007, bing 27,8% tong kim ngach xuat khau. Dieu ding quan tam II kim ngach nhap khau hing tieu diing dang cd chieu hudng gia ting lim cho can can thuang mai mat can ddi nghiem trpng.
Thj trudng Viet Nam II mdt thi trudng kha ldn, hang hoi ciia nhieu nudc d chau A, trong dd cd Trung Qude, se tran vao Viet Nam qua cle eon dudng khic nhau, cd khi nang se dugc "bin phi gii" vdi nhirng hinh thirc khic nhau, ke ca nhirng chien dieh cd quy md ldn "dd hang" vIo Viet Nam. Tinh hinh dd se Inh hudng den gii ca cua cac hing hoi san xuat trong nudc, kl ca nhirng mat hang trong nudc san xuat nhilu nhu gao, thjt lon...Nhap khau hang tieu diing cao cap cung tang dot bien.
Ching han, nhap khau d td nim 2008 dat mirc ky luc vdi 2,4 ty USD, trong dd d td nguyen chiec dat 1 ty USD vdi 50,4 ngln chiec (d td dudi 12 chd ngdi 27,5 ngan chile, tuong duomg 380 trieu USD). Su mat can doi trong xuat, nhap khau the hien khi rd ngay ca ddi vdi nhiing mat hing ma nudc ta sin xuit de xuat khau. Nim 2008, chiing ta xuit diu thd dat 10,45 ty USD, thi nhap khiu xang 10,888 ty USD, chua kl ngan sach nha nudc phai bii lo cho ban Ie xIng, diu. Xuat khau hing dien tir, mIy
tinh dat 2,703 ty USD thi nhap khau linh kien, may tinh la 3,722 ty USD, nhap sieu hom 1 ty USD. Xuat khau cle san pham may mac, giay dep dat 13,887 ty USD, trong khi dd, chi rieng nhap khau bdng, sgi, vai, nguyen phu lieu da, da la 8,049 ty USD. Xuit khau dau md ddng, thuc vat dat 99 trieu USD, nhung Hi nhap tdi 655 trieu USD, gap hem 6 lan. Hoac nhu ITnh vuc djeh vu, chiing ta xuat khau dat 7.098 trieu USD thi nhap khau 7.915 trieu, nhap sieu han 800 trieu USD*'l
Gia ca xuit khau, dac biet II cic mat hang nguyen lieu nhu dau thd, than dl deu giam manh. Ben canh dd II sir thay ddi lien tuc ciia gii. Nim 2008 cl the gidi da chiing kien cic "com sdt" dau, luang thuc vl lam phit lim cho nen kinh te nhiing thing dau nim 2009 lam vIo khimg hoang sau hom.
Chi sd gii tieu diing eua Viet Nam cung tang khi cao, nim 2008 ting 22,97% so vdi nim 2007. Cle mit hing luang thuc, thuc phim ting cao nhit, tdi 49,16% vl 32,36%, gia vIng ting 31,93%, dieu dd cung Inh hudng ldn tdi gii tri gia tang ciia kim ngach xuat khau. Mdt tic ddng dang lo ngai nira la sir len gii ciia ddng Viet Nam so vdi ddng ddla My (mac dii Ngan hang Nhi nudc da cho phep ndi ldng bien dp). Do sir cIt giim Hi suat lien tuc va manh ciia Cue Du trii lien bang My (FED) nham ciiu nIn kinh te My tholt khdi suy tholi, ty gia ddng ddla so vdi cic ddng tien tren the gidi ndi chung va so vdi ddng tien Viet Nam ludn cd xu hudng giim. Them vIo dd, sir gia ting manh lupng vdn dau tu nude ngoIi dd vao Viet Nam da va dang tao ra sire ep len gii ciia ddng Viet Nam so vdi ddng ddla
LY LUAN CHINH TRI 8 - 2009 37
My. Sir len gii dd dang thuc sir gay lo ngai cho xuit khiu cua Viet Nam khdng chi sang My, ma cdn sang cac nudc sir dung ddng ddla My trong giao dich thanh toan qude te. Cac ca sd xuat khau cua Viet Nam dang gap khd khan trong viec duy tri lgi nhuan vi hp nhan duge ft hom khi ddi ddng ddla kiem dugc tir xuat khau sang ddng Viet Nam.
Nhieu nen kinh te ldn rai vao suy tholi.
Tinh trang ddng bang cua he thdng tai chfnh da tac ddng ldn den san xuat cua doanh nghiep vl chi tieu cua ngudi dan.
Thi du: Hoa Ky, mdt qude gia cd nen kinh tl ldn nhat the gidi, tfnh den cudi thing 9 - 2008, da ed hom 30 nghin doanh nghiep phi san. Theo dd, ty le that nghiep tai qude gia nay tinh den ngay 6-12-2008 da len tdi 6,7%, mirc eao nhat trong vdng 15 nim qua.
That nghiep, thu nhap thap keo theo tiet kiem tieu diing. Mdt sd hang san xuat xe hai cua My ciing bi phi sin. Vdi viee doanh sd ban xe trong thing 10-2008 cua My tut xudng thap nhat trong vdng 25 nam qua, eho thay khimg hoang tai chinh da
"quit" cho tai ta nganh cdng nghiep xe hai cua My. Ngay tir dau nim 2009, chi sd tieu thu, dau tu d My tiep tuc rai va tdng kim ngach xuat khau ciia My da giam gan 20%.
Theo tinh toln eiia cle chuyen gia kinh te, nudc My phai can khoing 2 nghin ty USD de vuc day nen kinh te dang suy thoai. Ddi"
vdi Trung Qude, mdt thi trudng rdng ldn ciia the gidi, ddng thdi la nai san xuat hang hoa ldn ciia the gidi ciing red vao tinh trang tuang tu. Khu vuc cdng nghiep cua Trung Qude chiem tdi 43% GDP, hien phu thude vIo sd hing ban sang cic nudc phuang Tay.
Khoang 56%) hang xuit khiu cua Trung Qude dugc bin sang eac thi trudng My, Nhat Ban vl chau Au, la nhimg nai hien dang bi suy thoai nghiem trpng* '.
Thi trudng chiing khoan cua nudc ta cung ed sir bien ddng khdng du bao dugc.
Diiu dd anh hudng ldn den ket qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, tir dd tac ddng din hieu qua kinh doanh xuat khau.
Nhu da phan tich d tren, cudc khung hoang kinh te toan cau, bimg phat tir giua nam 2008, da khiln cho xuat, nhap khau va can can thuang mai Viet Nam bi anh hudng rit ldn vl khic xa rat nhieu so vdi suy tholi kinh tl khu vuc 1997-1999. Xuit khiu ciia Viet Nam vao cac nudc: Hoa Ky, EU, Nhat Ban... se gap nhirng khd khan ldn. Lupng hing hoi xuat khau giam, do ngudi tieu diing tiet kiem chi tieu; gii xuat khau bi sut giam rat manh; thanh toan khd khan do cac dan vi nhap khau eiia cac nudc niy siet chat viec md L/C (mdt loai tin dung thu trong thanh toln hing hda xuat khau); sir canh tranh gay gat hom cua cic hing nhap khau tir cac nudc Ddng Nam A, Trung Quoc, Han Qude, ... dac biet la cac mat hang tucmg ddng vdi hang Viet Nam nhu det may, gily dep.
De vugt qua khimg hoang, dn dinh can can thuang mai xuat, nhap khau, trudc het can tap trung vao mdt sd giai phip sau day:
Thu nhdt, thuc hien cd hieu qua gdi kich cau dau tien ciia Chinh phii cd gia tri 17 nghin ty ddng (tuang duomg vdi khoang 1 ty USD). Ben canh viec cle tap doan, cic tdng cdng ty, cae doanh nghiep can td chiic tdt nhirng giai phip thiic day san xuit kinh
38 LV L U A N CHiNH TRI 8 - 2009
doanh, thi can phai xay dung cac dl In trudc mat ciing nhu dai han, nhim diy manh xuat khau cle san phim trong nudc san xuat, han che nhap khiu nhirng mat hang ma trong holn cinh hien nay d nude ta chua that sir can thilt.
Thu hai. td chiic tdt cic kenh tieu thu san pham, trude het II nhung mat hang m l chiing ta dang cd lgi the canh tranh vl gii ca, san lugng. Die biet, cin tao su lien kit giira san xuat vdi bio quan, tieu thu, lien ket thj trudng ndi dia vdi thi trudng qude te, tranh tinh trang cle doanh nghiep chi tap trung vao thi trudng qude te, cdn thj trudng trong nudc thi de "ngd" cho cic doanh nghiep nudc ngoli. Ddng thdi, can lam thay ddi nhan thirc, thj hieu cua ngudi tieu diing (cl trong nudc va nudc ngoli) ddi vdi san pham ciia nudc ta, die biet luu y den thi trudng rdng ldn ciia ddng dio ndng dan d ndng thdn.
Thu ba, trong bdi canh cic nudc thit chit chi tieu, thi xiic tien thuong mai ddng mdt vai trd het sire quan trpng. Hon luc nao het, xiic tien thuang mai xuat khau trong tinh hinh hien nay se gdp phin dn djnh kinh tl, kilm chi lam phit, giam tham hut can can thuang mai... Trudc het, xiic tien thuang mai tap trung vIo cac nhdm hang cdng nghiep che bien, ndng lam, thiiy hai san, la nhiing nhdm hang ed kim ngach xuit khiu cao va cd mat tai nhieu thj trudng ldn. Ben canh cic thj trudng truyen thong, ele ban hang ldn nhu Bic My, EU, Nhat Bin, Hin Quoc, cin nhanh chdng tim kilm cic thj trudng mdi nhu Nam Phi va ele nudc chau Phi, My Latinh. Ting cudng td chirc cle doan doanh nghiep tiep
xuc true tiep vdi nhirng nha nhap khau nudc ngoli, td chiic cac hdi chg tai nudc ngoai vdi sir hd trg ciia cac hiep hdi nganh nghe v l cua Chinh phu theo quy dinh ciia WTO. Tuy vay, khdng nen tap trung cao hing hoi vao mpt thi trudng hole mdt ngoai te manh nao dd, de trinh tinh trang
"sdc" khi bj tir chdi.
Thir tu, tiep tuc ddi mdi manh hom, tao quyen tu chu nhieu hom cho cac doanh nghiep, tuy vay, ciing can trinh tinh trang doanh nghiep ddc quyen mdt mat hing, hole nganh hang nao dd. Thue hien co che dieu hinh linh hoat, vi nhung bai hpc ve xuat khau gao, thue xuat khau phdi thep, nhap thep phe lieu... trong thdi gian vira qua, da bdc Id nhiing yeu kem trong dieu hinh quin ly xuat nhap khau. Ting cudng kiem tra, giim sit nhap khau cic mat hang ma chiing ta sin xuit v l dip ung dupe nhu ciu trong nudc, hoac cac mit hing gay d nhiem mdi trudng, gay tic hai den sire khoe ciia ngudi tieu diing. Giim dan sir bio hd ciia Nha nudc qua cic chinh sich, tiep tuc cai cich hinh chinh, ra solt cle thu tuc khdng cdn phii hop de bio hd, hole sira ddi, bd sung, dom gian hoi cic thii tue, ting cudng cdng tic phdng chdng tham nhiing, sich nhieu, gian lan thuang mai, thuc hien tiet kiem, chdng lang phi. Nang cao trinh dp ning lire cua dpi ngii lim cdng tic xuat nhap khau, khdng chi gidi ve chuyen mdn nghiep vu ma cdn phai cd bin ITnh chinh tri vung vIng.
(1) long cue Thong ke: Bao cao Tinh hinh kinh te - xa hoi nam 2008.
1,2) Bao Nhdn ddn, ngay 20-1-2009, tr.5 va 8.
LV L U A N CHiNH TRI 8 - 2009 39
