CHINH TRi - LUAT
Vj THE VA VAI TRO HIEN NAY CUA BRAZIL 6 TAY BAN CAU
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ay nam gin day, phUdng tien thdng tin dai chung the gidi thudng de cap den cac qud'e gia gpi Id BRIC, mpt tQ ngQ ghep bang nhQng chQ d i u ctia ten bd'n nUdc cd nen kinh te mdi ndi Id Brazil, Nga, An Dp v i Trung Qud'e (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Tuy nhien, nhieu ngUdi dat cdu hdi lieu Brazil cd phii la mdt BRIC khdng. O d i u the ky XXI, Brazil cd k h i nang vat chat de dUdc coi la mdt nQde ldn "ting thQ hai", tQPng tii nhQ P h i p vd Italia hien nay. Ldi khang dinh nay thoat dau cd ve thieu cd sd vi Brazil chang phii l i mpt cUdng qud'c quan sQ, khdng so sanh dQdc vdi cdc nQdc ldn d Tay Au hay cae BRIC khac. Ve chi phi quin sii, Brazil ehi dQdc xep vao hai chuc nude hang diu. Khoang 13,4 ty ddla sti dung cho qudn sQ nam 2006 dat Brazil ngang hang vdi Australia, Canada, Tay Ban Nha, va Israel, khdng bing Han Qud'c, An Dp, Italia, Nga, va DQc, mdi nQdc chi phi tQ 20 de'n 30 ty ddla trong nam ndy. Brazil kem xa Nhat Bin, Trung Qud'e, Phip, vd Anh, mdi nUdc to'n kem tQ 40 tdi 50 ty ddla cho qudn dpi, dac biet Hoa Ky chi phi 528,7 ty ddla nam 2006.Di nhien Brazil khdng cd ly do de xay diing mdt quan dpi ldn, vi nQdc dd thQa sQc khd'ng ehe luc dia va vung lan can. Ve quan sQ, Brazil manh gap ba lin Colombia, gap bd'n lin Mexico,
Do Trong Quang
gap bay l i n Venezuela hay Argentina.
May man ve phQdng dien dia-chien iQpc, Brazil khdng ed chien tranh vdi cdc lang gieng trong hdn mdt the ky, quan dpi Brazil khdng dinh hu vao mdt cudc npi chien nao nhU d Colombia. Hanh ddng quan sii dang ke cuol cung ciia liic qudn va hai quan Brazil dQpc thtic hien trong Chien tranh the gidi thQ hai, khi nQdc nay phai mpt sQ doan de'n Italia va eung cap cho cac qud'c gia Ddng minh can cQ khdng quan va tau ngim.
Brazil cung cd trinh dp edng nghe kha eao, nhUng dQt khodt tQ bd vu khi hat nhan, tuy cd k h i nang s i n xuat vat lieu de che tao thQ vu khi tan pha khung khiep nay. Mdt uy ban dieu tra eua qud'c hdi bao cdo ndm 1990 rang, khdng qudn Brazil trong thdi gian cim quyen cua chinh phu quan sU da thiet, ke hai q u i bem nguyen tti.
NhQng chQdng trinh hat nhan bl mat cua Brazil, va viec qud'c gia dd tQ chdi ky Hiep Qdc khdng Phd bien Vu khi Hat nhan (NPT) nhQng nam 1970 va 1980, chti yeu Id de ran de nQdc Argentina lang gieng, cung nhu de phti nhan ddc quyen sd hQu vu khi hat nhan eiia b i t cQ nQdc ndo.
D i u nhQng nam 80, Brazil va Argentina t i i lap che dp dan chu, ehi'nh phii hai nUdc hdp tic vdi nhau mat thiet hdn ve chinh tri v i kinh te, ky ket mpt loat hiep Qdc kiem soat vu
khi song phUdng. Nam 1988, Brazil dUa mdt dieu khoan vdo hie'n phap dan chti mdi ciia minh, quy dinh khdng bao gid che tao vu khi hat nhan. Cuol thap ky dd, Brazil va Argentina deu md ciia cic cd sd nang lupng hat nhan de thanh s i t lan nhau. Thang 9/1990, Tong thdng Fernando Collor tii tay chup i n h canh xuc da't chdn lap mpt ehd thii nghiem hat nhan, tQdng trQng cho viec kien quyet tQ bd chQdng trinh hat nhan.
Sau day, nUdc n i y ky ta't ca cac hiep udc qud'c te kiem soit vu khi.
Mdt dieu kien quan trpng hdn de dupe coi la mpt nQdc ldn mdi ndi Id quy md ciia nen kinh te, ma nhieu nha ly luan xem la da'u hieu td't nha't ve sQc manh. TQ nam 2006, Brazil la mpt trong 10 nen kinh te'ldn nhat, nhQ vay trien vpng tang trQdng trong tQdng lai la dieu cin thiet de d i n h gia Brazil lieu ed nam treng so' eae nQdc ldn mdi ndi khdng. Brazil cd da p h i t trien nhanh nhat gan lien vdi cdng nghiep hda tQ nhQng nam giQa 1940 den nhQng ndm giQa 1970, khi ma td'e dp tang trQdng dat trung binh 7,4% mdi nam. Dae biet trong nhQng nam gpi la t h i n ky tQ 1968 tdi 1973, tdng s i n pham xa hdi (GDP) phdt trien vdi mpt td'e dp phi thQPng, hang nam trung binh 10,59%). NhQng tang trQdng tQ nam 1974 den eudl the ky XX tQdng ddi thip, trung binh 3,7%o. TQ ndm 2000 den 2006, Ngan hang The gidi bae cio tang trQdng GDP ctia nUdc n i y tren 3% mdt chut, tha'p hdn nhieu nude lang gieng gan nhi't, ke ca Chile, va tQ nam 2004 tha'p hdn Argentina.
Mac du thanh tQu cdn be nhd trong nhQng nam gin day, nhQng so sanh kinh te giQa Brazil vdi cac nQdc BRIC khac khdng nen chi nhin gia tri be ngodi. It tai lieu ctia Brazil d i m doin trudc tUdng lai, vi nhieu dti dodn cd
the n h i m ldn. Mac du vay, cd the dii bio rang Brazil se tdng trQdng deu dan 3,5% hoac hdn nQa trong nhQng thap ky tdi, tuy dieu do cdn phu thudc chinh sach kinh te vi mo cua chinh phti va mpt mdi trQdng qud'c te tQdng ddi thuan ldi. Ne'u tang trUdng d mQc nay, thi Brazil cd the hy vpng nam trong so' sdu hay bay nen kinh te ldn nha't vao giQa the ky XXI. Dieu dd lam mpi ngQdi ngac nhien, vi nen kinh te cdng nghiep nao cung chang the p h i t trien nhanh den the. Neu quy md kinh te vd mot cd sd cdng nghiep vQng chae l i nhQng tieu chi quan trpng nha't ctia kha nang vat chat, thi nQdc nay trong nhQng thap ky tdi khdng phai chi la mpt cQdng qud'c khu vtic. NhQ vay, Brazil theo tieu chi khaeh quan la mpt trong cae nQdc BRIC.
Mpt ly do de ndi r i n g Brazil khdng de dQdc Cdi nhQ mpt BRIC la d chd, Brazil ndi len h i u nhQ khdng bi London, Paris, Berlin, hay Tokyo coi Id mdi de dpa. Khdng gid'ng Trung Qud'c, Nga, hay tham chi An Dp, qud'c gia nay Id mpt nQdc phQdng Tay, chic chin lien minh vdi Hoa Ky va Tay Au.
Tuy dia ly chdng hoan toan quyet dinh each liia chpn chie'n lUdc cua mpt nQdc, nhQ trQdng hdp Cuba vd, gin day hdn, thai dp cua Td'ng thd'ng Hugo Chavez d Venezuela ddi vdi Iran, Bielorussia, vd Nga, nhUng nd v i n ban che nhQng cdch liia chpn dd. La mpt qudc gia cd chung nen van hda va cic gia tri vdi phUdng Tay, Brazil la nudc duy nhi't trong cac BRIC n i m d pham vi anh hQdng ciia My.
Tuy vay, chinh sach ddi ngoai ctia Brazil trong nhieu thap ky chti yeu l i ve quan he thQdng mai chQ khdng phai cdc van de an ninh. Monica Herz, mdt nha nghien cQu ctia Brazil ve quan he qud'c te, nhan xet r i n g
"chi'nh sach ddi ngoai va chinh sich quo'c phdng tdch rdi nhau d Brazil, va ddy la mpt moi quan tam ddi vdi quan dpi vd nhieu linh viic khac".
Lien minh lau ddi vdi Hoa Ky la s i n pham ctia ca lich sii l i n dia ly. La thudc dia cu eua Bd Ddo Nha, tQng giQ vai trd trung tam chmh tri cua de che dang suy tan dd tQ nam 1808 den 1821 trQdc khi gidnh dQpc dpe lap nam 1822, Brazil xua't hien vao nam 1889 nhu nQde cpng hda ldn nhat the gidi, bao gdm hdn mpt niia lanh thd Nam My. Quan dpi tuyen bd' t h i n h lap nQde cpng hda da ket thuc mpt nen qudn chii lap hien tQng phdt Id cupc cich mang cdng nghiep vd eai quan mdt he thd'ng kinh te diia tren che dp no le, md di san cdn dQdc thay de'n nay d tinh trang bat binh dang kinh te va xa hdi. Luc dd cung nhQ bay gid, cic n h i lanh dao Brazil coi ldi ich qud'e gia ciia hp phQ hpp vdi Ipi ich ctia Hoa Ky, lay qud'c hieu diu tien Id
"Hdp chung qudc Brazil".
Jose Maria da Silva Paranhos, nha ngoai giao ldi lac ciia Brazil trong nhQng thap ky cuol ciia chinh the quan chii, ngoai trQdng nQdc dd tQ nam 1902 tdi 1912, vd la ngQdi sang lap doan ngoai giao hien dai d i u tien ctia Brazil, da edng nhan r i t sdm sU xua't hien cua Hoa Ky nhQ mdt cQdng qud'c the gidi. Vi Ipi ich ctia Brazil trong viec ehd'ng i n h hQPng Anh tai Nam My, dac biet d iQu vile River Plate, dng chuyen hUdng trtic ddi ngoai ctia Brazil tQ London sang Washington. Chinh phu Brazil dQdc Hoa Ky hau thuan tich ciic trong cic trQdng hdp he trpng, nhQ vai trd trpng tai ciia Td'ng thd'ng Hoa Ky Grover Cleveland trong cupc tranh chap vdi Argentina, v i sQ ting hp ngim trong cae trQdng hpp khic. Viec giii quyet van de vQng dat Acre vdi Bolivia nam
1903, nhQng cudc tranh chap lanh thd vdi cic nQde ling gieng deu dUde xti ly bing bien phap ngoai giao cd ldi cho Brazil. Trong the ky sau, each nhin ctia Jose da Silva Paranhos ve quan he vdi Hoa Ky da dQde d i n h gia cao.
Tuy vay, quan he vdi Hoa Ky khdng phii khdng cd nhQng thdi ky cang thing, trdng dd cic nhd lanh dao Brazil da kheo leo chdi con bai chau Au, thUdng la DQc. Mpt giai doan nhQ the dien ra trong nhQng nam 1940, lue Tong thd'ng Getulio Vargas thUdng iQdng vdi c i qud'c xa DQc va Hoa Ky de xem ben nao cho minh nhieu cii Ipi hdn doi lay cin cQ quan sti. Sau chien tranh, Tdng thd'ng Harry Truman eiia Hoa Ky thiic hien ldi ctia ed' Tdng thd'ng Roosevelt hQa giup hoan thanh xay diing mpt nha miy luyen thep d Vdlta Redonda va vien trd ky thuat de vach ke hoach phat trien cdng nghiep tdng hpp dau tien. NhUng Brazil da that vpng khi trdng chd Hoa Ky diu tu d at sau chien tranh. Mac dQ Chinh phti Hoa Ky ung hd cudc dao chinh dUa quan dpi Brazil len cim quyen nam 1964, nhUng quyen ldi khac biet giQa hai nQdc ching may chdc da ddn den va cham.
NhQng nam d i u 1970, Hoa Ky giQp Brazil xay diing nha may dien hat nhan d i u tien, nhUng cac n h i lanh dao luc a'y ctia nQde nay biic tQc vi Hoa Ky ddi kiem tra va thanh sat nen quay sang Tay DQc. Di nhien Brazil cd mdt chQdng trinh vu khi bi mat, nham de ran de va eting cd' sQc manh (ed le chia vao Argentina) hdn la that sQ p h i t trie'n vu khi. Sau khi lap lai che dp dan chii nam 1985 va sau khi hien p h i p Brazil nam 1988 dQt khoat cam vu khi hat nhan, Qudc hdi Hoa Ky phdt dpng mpt cupc dieu tra chUPng trinh hat nhdn bi mat ciia nQdc ndy khien ngQdi Brazil phan no.
Gin day hdn, quan he giQa hai nQdc cang thdng ve thQdng mai, nhQng Brazil thay hdp tac vdi Hoa Ky, mdt nQdc ldng gieng cd chung gii tri dan chii vdi minh, van la mdt nen t i n g ctia chi'nh sdch ddi ngoai.
cac sing kien ngoai giao tieh ciic n h i t cua Brazil trong hdn hai thap ky tQ nam 1985 dQdc thiic hien n h i m miic dich tac ddng tdi cac che dp thQdng mai va d i u tU trtlc tie'p ctia khu vQc, cua Tay ban ciu va todn ciu chdng cheo nhau. That ra, do h i u nbU khdng hi de dpa ve an ninh tQ ben ngoai, nen chinh sach ddi ngoai ctia Brazil chii yeu la ve budn ban. Uu tien ciia nQdc ndy la md rdng MERCOSUR (Thi trQdng chung Nam My) den ta't ca Nam My, treng khi Hoa Ky mud'n md rpng NAFTA (Hiep Udc tu do thQdng mai Bie My, bao gdm Canada, Hoa Ky, v i Mexico) qua mpt hiep Qdc toan bdn ciu dUdc gpi l i FTAA (Khu viic ty do thUdng mai chau My).
Xung dot quyen ldi giQa MERCOSUR va FTAA la cd sd ctia eanh tranh chinh tri ve ndi budn ban.
Hoa Ky la mpt nUdc hau edng nghiep cd kha nang canh tranh cao d dich vii tai ehi'nh va nhQng khu vQc tQdng tii, nhQng khdng the canh tranh ve ndng sin va cac khu vQc s i n xua't ein nhieu lao dpng. trong khi Brazil Id nQdc dang phat trien cd thu nhap t h i p hdn. Brazil phan ddi e i cac hang rao budn ban ndng s i n l i n viec b i t budc thi hanh nhQng bien p h i p khic.
NhQng tQ cuol nhQng n i m 90, Venezuela sung tuc vdi gii dau cao, ndi len nhQ mpt nQdc canh tranh vdi quyen lanh dao ctia Brazil d Nam My, da lim diu bdt nhQng bat ddng giQa Brazil vdi Hoa Ky.
Trong nhQng nam 80, trong khi Tdng thdng Jose Sarney ctia Brazil va
Tdng thd'ng Raul Alfonsin ciia Argentina tap trung chinh sdch ddi ndi vdo viec thie't lap quyen kiem soit cua dan sti ddi vdi quan dpi va the che hda budc qua dp chi'nh tri ciia qud'c gia, thi chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia hp da dQa quan he tQdng t i c song phQdng vdo quy tac. Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, va Paraguay b i t diu thUdng iQdng ve mot thi trQdng chung khu vQc (thQdng mai tti do trong ndi bd v i thue x u i t nhap k h i u chung) dupe chinb thQc gpi l i MERCOSUR nam 1991. Mac du c h i n g cd ddi hdi cap thie't nao ve kinh te de hdi nhap, nhQng khu viic tti do thQdng mai da la mpt thanh cdng ve chi'nh tri va kinh te. Nd giup Brazil va Argentina hoan thanh bQdc qua dp tQ sti thd'ng tri eiia quan dpi sang dan sti, va tin cay lin nhau de cd the ddng thdi xay dting cd che kiem tra vu khi hat nhan ciia nhau. S Q hda giii chinh tri tao dieu kien phi quan sti hda bien gidi hai nQdc, cho phep Brazil di chuyen phQdng tien quan sQ tdi vung iQu viic Amazon. MERCOSUR cung giup bio dam dn dinh chinh tri d Paraguay.
Chie'n iQdc kinh te va chinh tri
ciia Brazil •„
I. 7 • ,
Cudi nam 1992, Tong thd'ng Fernando Collor de Mello, vi nguyen thii dan cii dau tien ciia Brazil, tQ chQc de tranh hi xet xii ve tpi tham nhung.
Tuy ket thuc nhiem ky mdt cdch nhuc nha, nhQng dng Collor dd b i t diu qua trinh cai cich kinh te, ke ci tU do hda thQdng mai. MERCOSUR dQdc xem Id mpt thanh cdng ldn trong vung. Khi Tdng thd'ng Fernando Henrique Cardoso len nham chQc, dng cd' ging gidi thieu vdi the gidi mot nUdc Brazil dn dinh va dan chti. Muc tieu trUdc mit ctia dng Id lay lai long tin ciia qud'c te da bi mat d hai lan hoan tra nd trong
nhQng nam 1980, nan lam phat cao, va cudc khung hoing chinh tri da bupc Collor tQ chQc. Cardoso cd khii niem ve Nam My nhQ mot thiic the dia-chlnh tri va dia-kinh te, muc tieu ro ret d dti an Nam My ctia dng la xac dinh khu vQc i n h hQdng cua Brazil, khic vdi Trung va Bic My do Hoa Ky khd'ng che. Theo hudng ndy, sang kie'n dQpc dQa ra nham giam i n h hQdng cua Hoa Ky trong vung, va tao kha nang de MERCOSUR md rpng sau nay.
Hoa Ky cQng cd mpt cdch nhin ve td chQc hdi nhap kinh te va chinh tri tai Nam My, nhQng treng mpt Tay ban eau thdng nhat, va dl nhien vdi nhQng the che do Hoa Ky khd'ng che. Nam 1995, Mexico v i nhieu nQdc hi mdt cpn hoang loan tdi chi'nh gpi la cupc khiing hoang ddng peso, nhQng Hoa Ky van md dau qua trinh FTAA bing cupc hpp thQdng dinh thang 12/1994 ciia chau My tai Miami. Nam sau, Td chQc ThQdng mai The gidi (WTO) md ciia, rdi trdng nhQng nam eudl 1990, chdu My Latinh lai trai qua nhQng cudc khiing hoing ve ti gii hdi dodi, tin dung v i tang trQdng gan lien vdi eae vu khiing being tdi chi'nh chau A va Nga. Do day, nhQng nam 1990 it cd tien bd ve hdi nhap kinh te, du d lue dia hay trong ban ciu.
Thang 9/2000, Brazil trieu tap hdi nghi thupng dinh d i u tien cdc tdng thd'ng Nam My d Brasilia, lap mpt ChUdng trinh Hdi nhap Ha t i n g Cd sd d vung Nam My (URSA), dUdc tinh toin de xuc tien viec xay dting cic xa Id v i d'ng ddn d i u mdi, t i t nhien cd ldi cho Brazil, nha't l i trong linh vtic nang iQdng. ChQdng trinh dd cung la mpt cii vd chinh tri che gid'u sQ khing dinh quyen lanh dao ciia Brazil bang each sii dung de tai hpi nhap kinh te.
NgQdi ke nhiem dng Cardoso, Td'ng thd'ng Lula da Silva, la nguyen thti
d i u tien ciia Brazil x u i t than tQ dang Cdng nhdn khuynh t i . Ong nha'n manh sQ chu trpng ctia ngQdi tien nhiem vao viec p h i t trien quan he mat thiet vdi cic nQdc lang gieng gan gui tai Nam My. NhUng mdi hai t u i n le sau khi len cim quyen, vi tdng thd'ng mdi da dung chuye'n cdng du d i u tien cua minh ra nUde ngoai de tuyen bd' sti lanh dao ctia Brazil trong vung. Rat gid'ng ngUdi tien nhiem, Lula danh gia qud cae kha nang minh cd the kiem che Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez ctia Venezuela. Sil tinh toan sai lam dd da gdp p h i n vao quyet dinh ciia Brazil mdi Venezuela gia nhap MERCOSUR. Vi tdng thong cd uy tin ctia Venezuela khdng de chap nhan nguyen vpng ciia Brazil mud'n lanh dao khu vQc. Vai trd Chavez trong viec Bolivia quyet dinh qud'c hQu hda ngdnh cdng nghiep diu khi thing 5/2006, ke ca cic khoin diu tU triic tiep d nQdc ngodi ctia tap doan nang iQdng Petrobas d Brazil, khien nhieu ngQdi Brazil tin r i n g muc tieu cdng kich ctia nha lanh dao Venezuela la Brazil chQ khdng phai Hoa Ky.
Trong khi dd, c i Brazil vd Hoa Ky deu thtic hien chQdng trinh budn bdn ctia minh trong WTO. Thang 11/2001, hai nUdc thUdng iQdng thanh cdng mpt hiep Qdc, nha't tri rang Brazil se ling hp vdng dam p h i n Doha ve tQ do hda thQdng mai trong WTO, de ddi lay viee tai WTO Hoa Ky khdng phan ddi luat ciia Brazil ddi hdi cac thQ thud'c dupe dac quyen s i n xuat trong trUdng hpp khan cap p h i i cd giiy phep.
Trong nhQng t u i n le eudl cung cim quyen, chinh quyen Cardoso phti n h i n tinh hdp p h i p trong cic khoan trp ci'p ciia Hoa Ky vd Lien minh chau Au (EU) cho dudng va bdng. Sau day, Brazil, Nam Phi, va An Dp cung nhau lap ra nhdm G-20, thuc day vdng dam phan Doha tap trung vao
nhQng van de ma cac nQdc ngheo hdn quan tam, dac biet viec gianh thi trUPng cho ndng s i n va eac hang hda can nhieu lao ddng de s i n xuat.
Qua G-20, nhieu nUdc dang phat trien chti yeu cd k h i nang giQ mpt lap trQdng tQdng ddi manh doi vdi cac qud'c gia giiu cd. Ngoai ra, cic quo'c gia trong nhdm G-20 dodn ket vdi nhau mac du cd nhQng bat ddng ve cd ciu va quyen ldi kinh te'. Vdng dam phan Doha true trac nam 2003, cd the vi eac nUde giau khdng mud'n giim trd cap ndng nghiep. Sau di'y, mpt "bp tQ"
mdi gdm Hoa Ky, EU, An Dp, va Brazil dam nhan viec thao gd be tic, nhQng eho de'n nay khdng thanh cdng.
TQ giQa nam 2007, chii trQdng ctia FTAA ve thQdng mai Tay b i n ciu ma Hoa Ky xuc tien van gap trie trd, vi bi mdt nhdm nUde do Brazil dQng d i u kien quyet p h i n ddi tai Hdi nghi Bp trQdng t h i n g 11/2003 d Miami. Chinli phu Hda Ky ben dp dung mpt chien lupe thUdng iQdng budn b i n song phQdng khac. TQ nam 2003, sau nQdc Trung My cQng nhQ Cpng hda Dominica, Peru, v i Colom.bia deu ky hiep dinh thUdng mai song phQdng vdi Washington. TrQdc day, hiep dinh thQdng mai song phQdng duy nhi't ciia Hoa Ky d chau My Latinh la vdi Chile.
0 phia ben kia, ke hoach ctia Hugo Chavez ve hdi nhap liic dia va ban ciu dan tdi nhieu hpi nghi thupng dinh vd cic sang kien qud'c te mdi. Hugo Chavez vQa cud'n hut vQa chia re Itic dia bing de nghi ddng gdp mdt khoin tien ldn de trd giup mpt Ngin hdng mien Nam mdi, dQdc cdi la mdt ngan hang phat trie'n khu vtic cd the thay the Ngan hang P h i t trien Lien My (IDB), nhQng khdng cd Hoa Ky tham gia. Cdc nQdc Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, v i Argentina deu chip nhan diu Ilia ctia Venezuela. Cpng ddng
kinh doanh Brazil thi ting hd Venezuela gia nhap MERCOSUR, vi ty gid hdi dodi dang tang ciia Venezuela b i o dain thang dU thUdng mai ldn ciia Brazil vdi Venezuela.
NhUng ddng thdi, t h i i dp ciia Chavez bat d i u lam nhieu nUdc ling gieng phan no. Tuy Tdng thd'ng Lula cd y dinh hda giai, nhQng Qud'c hpi Brazil khdng chiu thong qua tQ cuol ndm 2007 hiep Qdc MERCOSUR mdi, chap nhan Venezuela.
Cich nhin dn hda ciia Brazil trQdc het ve hpi nhap luc dia, rdi sau day mdi den hpi nhap b i n ciu, cd the Id ke hoach hdi nhap kinh te My Latinh vdi cd hpi thanh cdng lau dai td't nha't, tuy budc tie'n bp khdng deu. VI du, Hdi nghi ThQdng dinh Nam My nam 2002 didn ra trong khdng khi u dm cua cudc bau cti gian lan do Tdng thd'ng Alberto Fujimori d Peru s i p dat trUdc di'y, mpt cupc bau cii m i To chQc cie nQdc chau My (OAS) khdng the nhat tri ve mdt phan Qng phdi hdp. NhQng cudc khiing hoang ve ti gia hdi doai tai Brazil thang 1 nam 1999 vd cuol nam 2002, cung nhQ d Argentina nam 2001-2002, lam cho hpi nhap kinh te khu vQc kem ha'p d i n . Mac du ca Brazil va Argentina deu tang trQdng trd lai, nhQng hpi nhap kinh te sau hdn se ddi hdi phai nhQdng l i n nhau nhQng quyen m i hai ben chUa s i n sang ddng y n h i n nhUdng.
Trong MERCOSUR hien nay didn ra tinh hinh rat cang t h i n g giQa Uruguay va Argentina ve hai n h i m i y gia'y cua Uruguay d con sdng bien gidi giQa hai nQdc. Cd sil ngd vQc nhau giQa mpt ben Id Brazil, ben kia la Bolivia va Venezuela ve viec Bolivia g i n diy qud'c hQu hda md khi dot. Chinh quyen ctia Tdng tho'ng Lula thi chia re ve q u i trinh URSA, mpt q u i trinh dQdc cac bp Ke hoach.
N a n g iQdng va V a n t i i ting hd, nhQng bi bd Ngoai giao ngd vtic, vi URSA se cho IDB c u n g c i c cd ddng ctia nd, ke ca Hoa Ky, giQ vai trd phdi hpp ehinh.
Ve phia tich cQc t h i EU, cd p h i n t r o n g thQPng m a i cua M E R C O S U R hien nay n g a n g Hoa Ky, dd b i t d i u coi trpng hdi n h a p k i n h te d N a m My.
Nhieu nude N a m My cd ve hoan n g h e n h each n h i n dn hda ve ehinh t r i cua Brazil ddi vdi hpp tdc va hpi n h a p k i n h te ctia N a m My hdn vdi chieu hudng t u tQdng ctia Venezuela. Nhd boat dpng ctia G-20, i n h hUdng ctia cac nQdc d a n g p h a t t r i e n t r o n g WTO da dQdc t a n g cQdng n h i e u . Ne'u Brazil t r i n h l i m cho eae Mng gieng sd hai, thi t i c ddng k i n h te vd ehinh t r i ciia nude dd se tiep t u c t a n g .
Vai t r o B r a z i l t r o n g v a n d e n h a n q u y e n v a g i n giQ h o a b i n h
TQ cuol nhQng n a m 1990 trd di, cdc Qu tien chinh tri qud'c t e mdi, bao gdm gin giQ hda binh va khd'ng che sQ t h a y ddi khi b a u , da d i n d i n trd n e n q u a n trpng hdn. Brazil b o a t dpng tich cUe d ddu thdi ky h a u chie'n, t h a m gia liic lUdng gin giQ hda binh d i u tien cua Lien hpp qud'e P k e n h dao Suez va d i i Gaza t r o n g nhQng n a m 1950. N a m 1965, mpt n a m sau cupc d i o chi'nh q u a n sti, cac tQdng Hnh mdi c i m quyen ddng y ddng gdp binh si vao cupc can t h i e p do Hoa Ky cam d i u P Cpng hda Dominica. S a u day ho ket luan r a n g sti t h a m gia ctia Brazil khien nUdc nay cd ve la mot bu n h i n ciia Hoa Ky, t h a n h r a Brazil thdi dinh Hu vdo boat dpng qud'c te trong hai t h a p ky gidi q u a n sti n a m quyen.
Trdng khi cac tdng thd'ng d a u tien ctia Brazil, s a u q u a t r i n h ddn chii hda giQa nhQng n d m 1980, t a p t r u n g vao ngoai giao thQdng m a i va tQ bd vu khi h a t n h a n , t h i C h i n h q u y e n Cardoso d
nhQng n a m eudl 1990 vd nhQng n a m d i u t h e ky mdi cd' g a n g t a n g cQdng sii cd m a t vd t i e n g ndi cua Brazil trong cdc cudc t h i o l u a n phi thUdng mai t r e n vu dai qud'c te. Brazil ti'eh ciic t h a m gia g i i i quyet x u n g dot tai N a m My, vi du gdp p h d n hda giii Peru v i Ecuador t r o n g cupc chien nhd t h a n g 1 v i t h i n g 2/1995 va n g a n chan mpt cudc d i o ehinh d P a r a g u a y t h d n g 4/1996.
TQ day, Brazil da ddng gdp deu dan vdo b o a t dpng gin giQ hda binh, gQi q u a n s a n g c i cac nQde ndi tieng Bd Ddo N h a l a n cac nQde ndi tieng Anh, den C y p r u s v i v u n g B a l k a n s d chau Au, den T r u n g My, den Ddng N a m A, ke ca nUdc Ddng Timor nhd be ndi tieng Bd Dao N h a mdi dpe lap. TQ n a m 1996 den 2003, Brazil giup dd ky t h u a t de t h i o gd min tai Costa Rica, G u a t e m a l a , H o n d u r a s , Nicaragua, Ecuador va P e r u , dUdi sU b i o trd cua OAS, G i n day n h i t , Brazil n h a n chi huy mpt liie iQpng q u a n sQ 6.000 ngQdi n i m 2006 dQde giad cho P h a i doan dn dinh hda cua Lien hdp qud'c d Haiti (MINUSTAH). S a u v u ' v i e n chi h u y ngQdi Brazil cua p h a i dodn tti sat, M I N U S T A H dupe coi la mot ddng gdp r i t tich ciic cho viec t a n g cQdng sQ tdn t r p n g p h a p l u a t va n h a n quyen P Haiti. Den cung vdi binh linh Brazil la n h i e u td chQc phi chinh phti Brazil.
Cdc cd q u a n chinh phii va dan sti cua Brazil c u n g giQ mot vai trd tich cQc t r o n g c i c td chQc qud'c te vd dien d a n xuyen qud'c gia ting hp n h a n quyen. Di'y la mpt v a n de ma ca hai tdng thd'ng g i n ddy n h i t ciia Brazil hi Cardoso v i L u l a da Silva hieu rd, vi h a i dng da p h a i ngdi t u v i m a t cac quyen k h a c do b o a t dpng ehinh tri t r o n g thdi gian c a m quyen ciia chinh phii q u a n sti. Vai trd nQde nay trong
viec gin giQ hda binh va cac td chQc nhan quyen qud'c te cdn han che, nhQng da p h i t trien rat nhanh tQ khi dat nQdc dan chii hda.
Cd le ddng gdp d i n g chu y nha't cua Brazil la trong Hnh vQc ngan can bien ddi khi hau qua bao ve mdi trQdng.
Nhieu da'u hieu cho thi'y qud'c gia n i y l i mpt trong cdc nUdc gay d nhidm hang d i u tren the gidi. Theo Vien Tai nguyen The gidi, Brazil chiu trich nhiem ve 6% dioxide carbon thai ra tren toan ciu tQ nam 1950 den 2000, ehi kem Hoa Ky (17%), Trung Qudc (10%), Nga (8%), va Indonesia (7%).
NhUng ta't c i iQdng thai ciia Hda Ky, cung nhu 80%o iQdng thai ciia Nga, va 60% ctia Trung Qud'c l i do dd't nhien lieu hda thach va s i n xuat xi mang.
Trai lai, 95% ctia Indonesia va 88%
ctia Brazil la do each sii dung da't, chii yeu la pha rQng.
Tuy nhien, theo cac dau hieu khac thi Brazil la mpt nQdc dat thanh tich cao ve bio ve mdi trQdng. Dieu quan trpng nha't l i Brazil b i t dau thay ddi b i n tinh hinh mdi trUdng. N i m 2000, rieng Hoa Ky thai 22% dioxide carbon, Trung Qudc 18%, Nga 6%.
nhUng Brazil chi t h i i 1%. Khoing 83% dien ctia Brazil dQdc s i n xua't bang thiiy dien, va g i n 21% nang lupng sti dung la tQ ngudn khae, nha't l i tQ ethanol. Ngoai ra, Brazil d i n d i u the gidi ve san iQdng, cdng nghe, va xuat khau ethanol, mpt dieu dot nhien trd nen quan treng khi gii d i u Ilia tang gap nhieu l i n tQ 28 ddla mdt thung nam 2002. Ethanol ciia Brazil
"xanh" hdn ctia Hoa Ky.
Hpi nghi thQdng dinh qud'c te ve Trii da't, dUpc td chQc tai Rio de Janeiro nam 1992, bat d i u mpt q u i trinh d i n tdi Nghi dinh thQ Kyoto ve thay ddi khi hau n i m 1997. Nghi dinh
thu dUdc Brazil thong qua nam 1997, v i cd hieu iQc tQ khi Nga ky vdo n i m 2004 tuy Hoa Ky van tQ chdi tham gia. Do cd nhieu tai nguyen mdi trQdng, do t i m quan trpng ctia sQ bio ve rQng nhiet ddi ddi vdi da dang sinh hpc t o i n cau va khi hau, va kinh nghiem cua Brazil ve san xui't cdng nghiep cung nhQ phan bo' va sii dung nang iQdng sinh hpc, nen trong ta't ci cic nQdc mdi ndi v i cQdng qud'c cdng nghiep tien tien, Brazil la nQdc duy nha't ddng mpt vai tro trung tam trong che dp khi hau todn ciu.
Nguyen Bp trQdng Mdi trQdng la Rubens Ricupero nhan dinh rang Brazil thQa kha nang "lam mdt cQdng qudc mdi trQdng, Id Hnh vQc duy nha't ma trong dd nguyen vpng ctia chung tdi trd thanh mpt cQdng qud'c ldn la hien thiic".
cac nha khi hau hpc Brazil gin day cd' ging thuyet phuc nhan dan nUdc minh quan tam den rQng nhiet ddi bi hiiy hoai va khi hau toan ciu bie'n ddi.
Hien nay hp cd b i n g chQng l i rQng nhiet ddi bi buy hoai cd the lim thay doi che dp mQa d Brazil, de dpa ndng nghiep vd viec cung cap nang iQdng cua qud'c gia, vi da't nQdc phu thudc nhieu vdo thuy dien. Cudc tranh luan trong xa hpi Brazil ve van de mdi trUdng da md rpng dang ke sau thdi gian chinh phti quan sQ coi dd la i m mQu do nQdc ngoii xui giuc cho'ng sti phdt trien kinh te ciia dat nQdc.
Bd'n nQdc dQdc coi nhQ cd tdc dpng ldn nha't de'n sQ thay dd'i khi hau trong tQdng lai la Trung Qudc, An Dp, Nam Phi, vd Brazil. Hien nay, Trung Qud'c dii kien dQa moi quan tam ve moi trQdng vao cic dii an p h i t trien ndng nghiep. An Dp hinh dung ra nhQng tham hpa do khi h i u bien ddi va bat dau chuan bi ke hoach ddi
phd, de tranh c i n h tan p h i va ehet ngQdi nghiem trpng nhQ nan sdng than da gidng xud'ng Indonesia cung nhieu nQdc Nam va Ddng Nam A, ke ca ven bien An Dp, thang 12/2004.
Cdn Nam Phi thi tim mpi each de Bp Mdi trQdng tdc dpng den chinh phti, trong khi Brazil tim ra mdt chien lUdc ti mi de cdc qud'c gia dang phdt trien thuyet phiic cac nude tien tien ed trich nhiem cao hdn ve chi phi cho mdi trQdng.
Hien nay, gia d i u liia tren the gidi lam cho Venezuela trd nen gidu cd.
Td'ng thd'ng Hugo Chavez trQdc dd cdng kich ethanol ctia Brazil la mpt thQ nhien lieu ban, lam tang cinh ngheo khd eua nhQng ndng dan bd cdy iQPng thiic de trdng mia, nhQ vay cd the giin tiep gay ra nan ddi d cie nQdc dang phat trien. Brazil cd hai phin Qng ddi vdi ldi edng kich ctia dng Hugo Chavez. ThU nhdt, Tdng thdng Lula da Silva, tuy rat khuynh t i v i tQng ehi trich cudc tan cdng ciia Hoa Ky d Iraq, nhQng quyet dinh hpp tac vdi Hoa Ky de nghien cQu va ban nhien lieu sinh hpc. Day la mdt quan he cdng tic hpp ly, vi hai nUde hien nay chiem 80% s i n iQdng nhien lieu sinh hpc tren toan ciu. Sti cpng t i c dd da hinh thanh, mac du Brazil vdn phin khing manh me thue nhap k h i u cao cua Hoa Ky danh vao ethanol cua Brazil che tao tQ mia, san xuat re hdn ethanol cua Hoa Ky lam tQ ngu cdc.
ThU hai, dng Lula da Silva ndi ve sti hpp tac ky thuat gin day vdi Mozambique de s i n xuat nhien lieu sinh hpc, v i cung giup dd cae nQdc dang p h i t trien. Ong cho rang viec sin xuit ethanol va nhien lieu sinh hpc eiia Brazil vQa sii dung nhieu nhin cdng vQa "xanh". Ldi ndi ctia dng Lula da Silva cung la mdt each gian
tiep cbl trich bdng rao thue quan cao ctia Hoa Ky danh vao ethanol Brazil.
Ket luan
Brazil cd nam trong so' cac nUdc ldn mdi ndi gpi la BRIC khdng? Ve kha nang vat chit, ngQdi ta cd the khdng dinh nQdc dd Id mdt BRIC, mac du cdch dinh gii nay cdn tuy thupe mQc dp tang trQdng 4%) mdi nam ciia Brazil trong nhQng thap ky tdi. Day la mdt thanh tQu khdng khd dat vi Brazil dn dinh ve chi'nh tri, nhQng nd da la mot muc tieu chang de thile hien trong eac thap ky gin ddy. Brazil chae chan la mpt nude phQdng Tdy, rang bupc chat che vdi Hoa Ky va Tay Au ve van hda, lich sti, vd dia ly, nhQ vay dd Id mdt cQdng qud'c mdi ndi md sQ lien ket vdi phQdng Tay ve quin sQ va ngoai giao la dieu khdng cdn nghi ngd nQa.
Cd bang chQng cho tha'y nhan dan va cac nha lanh dao Brazil mudn nUdc hp ddng mdt vai trd toan cau. Kbit vpng dat vi the cQdng qud'c ldn ed tQ nhQng ndm dau the ky XX. Brazil la nUdc Nam My duy nha't tham gia ca hai cudc chien tranh the gidi. Dd la mdt thanh vien sang lap Hdi qud'c lien va Lien hpp quo'c, mpt nUdc ky ket hdu bet cic hiep Qdc qud'c te ldn ngay nay, tQ Nghi dinh thQ Kyoto va Cdng Qdc ve Da dang Sinh hpc den nhieu thda thuan ve cim phd bien vu khi hat nhan. Brazil la nQdc My Latinh duy nha't ma chinh sich ddi ngoai cd i n h hudng tren eae dien ddn qud'c te, tuy cac chinh phil Venezuela, Mexico, Cuba, va Argentina cd the khdng edng nhan dieu dd.
Tupng trUng cho Qdc mud'n eua Brazil dat vi the cUdng qud'c ldn la, nUdc ndy tQ lau tim each trd thanh mpt uy vien thQdng trtic cua Hpi ddng Bio an Lien hpp qudc. That ra, cd' Tdng thd'ng Franklin Delano
Roosevelt ctia Hoa Ky da de cii Brazil giQ mpt ghe d Hdi ddng Bio an nam 1944, nhQng bi Anh v i Nga phan ddi.
Thing 9/2004, Brazil cung vdi DQc, N h i t Bin, v i An Dp ddi l i m uy vien Hpi ddng Bao an, nhQng Tong thd'ng Lula da Silva thd't vpng khi vap phai sti phan ddi manh me ctia Mexico va Argentina. Khi DQc, Nhat Bin, v i An Dp cung bi chdng ddi nhQ vay thi de nghi dd bi bd dd, nhQng nd cd kha n i n g lai dQdc dQa ra.
Trong luc dd, Brazil cd nhQng van de npi bd cap thiet m i neu khdng dQdc giii quyet thi cd the xdi mdn tinh kha thi ciia sii phuc hdi kinh te hien nay, do dd tdc dpng tieu cQc tdi nguyen vpng trd thanh cQdng qud'c ldn. Nha kinh te hpc ldi lac Marcelo de Paiva Abreu bieu Id sii bi quan khi ndi r i n g
"Brazil da cd mdt thdnh tich tang trQdng kinh te kem cdi trong hdn hai thap ky, vi the ching cd gi l i m ngQdi ta nghi de'n mpt t h i n h tiiu td't hdn nhieu trong tQdng lai gin. Neu khdng cd nhQng chinh sdch mdi de bao d i m cii cich vi md rpng rai, giam chi tieu, cd mpt he thd'ng thue khda hieu qua hdn, gia tang d i n g ke ti le tiet kiem, va trQdc het, mpt t h i n h tich tang trQdng dQpc cai thien nhieu, thi Brazil se khdng dUdc ke la mpt BRIC trong tQdng lai". Theo bio cio cua Phdng ThQdng mai My d Sao Paulo, Brazil
da mat nhieu kha nang canh tranh tQ nam 2000 den 2006. Chieu hQdng tieu ciic nay dQdc xac nhan d Bao cio nam 2007-2008 ctia Diin dan Kinh te The gidi ve tinh canh tranh.
Tuy vay, van nhieu ngQdi lac quan, ke c i tuan bio The Economist ctia Anh va Ngan hang The' gidi. Ngoai sti t h i c h thQc ctia tang trQdng, nhQng van de cap thiet nhat la giii quyet tinh trang bat binh dang ldn ve thu nhap va cd hpi hpc hanh. Vi the tQdng lai ctia Brazil trdng he thd'ng qud'c te nhQ vay phu thudc nhieu d chd, cac nhd lanh dao qud'c gia nay giai quyet the nao cac thach thQc trong nQdc. 0 Brazil, dd la nhQng thach thQc ve quan ly kinh te, md chi khi nao dUdc giai quyet thi Brazil mdi ddng mdt vai trd d i n g ke d the ky XXI •
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1. Burges, Sean "W. "Without Sticl^s or Carrots: Brazilian Leadership in South America during the Cardoso Era, 1992- 2003," Bulletin of Latin American Research, vol.25. No 1.
2. Armijo, Leslie Elliott. "Mass Democracy:
The real Reason t h a t Brazil ended Inflation?" World Development, vol.33. No.
12.
S.Fausto, Boris. A Concise History of Brazil.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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