KHUNG HOnNG KINH T€ THC GI6I HICN NflV,
^
W CnCH TICP CAN THCO QUflN DICM MnCXIT
PGS, TS NGUYEN VAN H^^U'"'
C dc sir kien the gidi gdn day da chi ra rdng, khung hodng kinh te luon Id hien tuomg gdn lien vdi chii nghTa tu bdn vd mgt ldn nira Igi ldm cho ly ludn ciia Cdc Mdc trd nen dugc chit y nhieu han a phuang Tdy. Co nhieu hgc gid vd nhieu
nhd hogt dgng thuc tien cho rdng, de co the xac dinh ro nguyen nhdn ciia khiing hodng vd con dudng khdc phuc no, cdn phdi phdn tich cugc khiing hodng kinh te the gidi hien nay theo quan diem mdcxit.
Khiing hoang kinh te the gioi la do nhirng nguyen nhan noi tai ciia chu nghia tu* ban
Vao llic giao thdi cua the ky XX va the ky XXI, d My da ap dung mdt loat cac bien phip budng Idng dieu tiet khu vuc ngan hang, ddng thdi phit trien tu do he thdng tii chinh khdng cd sir kiem soit ciia chfnli phu. Qua trinh niy da dan den sir sup dd ciia tin dung cam cd, cham ngdi cho khimg hoang kinh te the gidi. Ndi mdt each ngin gpn thi khimg hoang nam 2008 li: thu hep khdi lupmg va thit chat diiu kien cho vay;
'*' Vien Kinh ti. Hoc vien Chinh tri quoc gia Ho Chi Minh.
Hanh chinh
giam thieu tich liiy tu ban ciia cac tap doan sin xuat; sir tut ddc cua cac chi sd vdn, tang tham hut ngan sach; suy thoai san xuat, that nghiep tang nhanh va cudi ciing la sir thu hep chi tieu ciia ngudi tieu diing.
Tai sao kinh te the gidi tu ban hien nay lai roi vao khung hoang toan dien va sau sic? Theo chii nghia Mac, cau tra ldi ve mat nguyen tic that don gian: he thdng kinh te - xa hdi tu ban chii nghia ham chiia nhirng nguyen nhan ndi tai ciia khimg hoang - die trung cua thj trudng "tu do".
C.Mie cho rang, trong dieu kien san xuat va trao ddi hing hda, tinh ty Ie, tinh can ddi ciia nen kinh te khdng dugc hinh thanh mdt cich'true tiep, ma chi hinh thanh tu phat sau khi da cd sir xung dot cua cac hang hda tren thj trudng. Sir tach biet giiia nhirng ngudi san xuat cang sau sic thi kha nang tiem tang ciia khiing hoang cing ldn. C) day, khiing hoang cdn do kha nang khdng an khdp gitra mua va ban, gan vdi chiic nang cua tien vdi tu each la phuong tien luu thdng, la dau hieu cua vat ngang gia chung. Dieu nay tao ra kha nang thoat ly ciia khu vuc tai chinh khdi khu vuc kinh tl thirc, dan den hinh thanh "bong bdng" tai
54 LV LUAN CHINH TRI 1 - 2010
chinh. Nhiing "bong bdng" niy ve bin chat khdng cd gii trj, do dd khdng phii la tien theo dung nghia ciia nd.
Hien nay, the gidi da cp sir thay ddi ldn.
dd la sir hinh thanh khu vuc tai chinh khdng Id (khu vuc kinh te ao). Tu ban dugc dau tu vao cic hgp ddng tii chinh nhim thu dugc sieu Igi nhuan. Loai tu ban tai chinh nay, trong nhimg thap nien gan day da ting len nhanh chdng va chuyen thanh hien tugng ddc lap, hon niia nd lai quyet djnh ddng thii cua tu ban trong khu vuc kinh te thuc. Neu vao nim 1980, tai sin tai chinh the gidi (nhirng giay td cd gii - dau hieu ciia gia trj) li 12 nghin ty USD - xap xi GDP cua thi gidi (10 nghin ty USD), thi nim 2007 la 195 nghin ty, vugt qui 3,5 lan GDP toan thi gidi (55 nghin ty USD)'".
Khi'nghien cim hang hda, tien te. C.Mac da chi ra ring, tien te (vdi tu each li mdi gidi luu thdng, tien giay hay nhtimg tien dau hieu khac) khdng phai la cua cai d ben ngoai he thdng sin xuat hang hda. Tien vdi tu each li phuong tien luu thdng chi la dau hieu ciia gii trj, m i gii trj l i lao ddng xa hpi can thiet dugc vat chat hda trong hang hda. Gia trj niy cd the dugc phan chia hay tiep tuc phan chia lai giira tat ca cac linh vuc kinh te khic nhau, trong dd cd khu vuc tai chinh, boat ddng ciia khu vuc niy tu nd khdng tao ra gii trj nio ca. Tat ca ciia cai luan chuyen trong linh vuc tai chinh, theo quan diem ciia Mic deu chi la su phan phdi lai gia trj dugc tao ra trong linh vuc san xuat. Tu ban tii chinh sau khi trir di gia trj ciia nil irng hoat ddng nang cao hieu qui cua khu vuc san xuat vat chat, thi chi li ciia cai hu ao, gia trj gia hoin toan.
Khiing hoang da lim cho tinh hu io ciia ciia cai trong khu vuc tii chinh bit dau bdc Id ra vdi mdt tdc dp nhanh chdng khiing khiep, nhiimg ngudn tien hu ao d i hien nguyen hinh thuc te ciia nd, dd li giay ldn hay nhiimg hinh thirc khac ciia giiy ldn.
Ciia cai nay da bien di nhanh chdng, tdng sd tu ban tren thj trudng ciia tat ca cac cdng ty trong nen kinh te the gidi trong nim 2008 bj thu hep lai chi cdn 30 nghin ty dd la, cd nghia la bj thu hep nhieu lin'^*. Nhu vay, khiing hoang da chimg minh tinh dung din ciia hpc thuyet gia trj - lao ddng ciia Mac v i tinh dpc lap tuomg ddi ciia ddng tien trong chirc ning lim phuong tien luu thdng va phuong tien thanh toan.
Theo quan diem ciia Mac, khiing hoang sin xuat thira tir chd tiem ting trd thanh hien thuc chi khi xuat hien tich liiy qui nhieu tu ban. Tu ban "thira" nay khdng mang lai lpi nhuan binh quan, hay ndi chung la khdng the cd lpi nhuan do quy luat ty suat lpi nhuan cd xu hudng giam sut. Dd li tinh quy luat trong dieu kien phat trien cdng nghe hien dai, lam bien ddi cau tao hiru CO ciia tu ban, do dd bien ddi ty suat Igi nhuan. Trong nhirng thap nien gan day, cdn mpt yeu td die biet tang cudng tich liiy thira tu bin li sir phdt trien uu tien cua ITnh vuc tdi chinh. Ddi vdi chii nghia tu bin ndi chung v i cic giai doan tu do mdi ciia nd ndi rieng, cd die trung la cd sir di chuyen cac ngudn lire (con ngudi, tii chinh...) tir linh vuc sin xuat vat chat sang cac linh vuc m i d dd khdng tao ra mdt cua cai vat chat nao: dau co tai chinh va cic hinh thirc da dang ciia boat ddng mdi gidi; Unh vuc quan ly nhi nudc quan lieu v i quan ly cdng ty da
phinh to ra... Sir uu tien phat trien khu vuc nay la hau qua cua tich liiy thira tu ban trong khu vuc san xuat. Da tir nhieu thap ky trudc, tu ban bj ban che bdi nhtrng gidi ban phat trien ciia chinh minh. Tu ban khdng the tiep tuc dugc sir dung mgt each cd hieu qua trong nhiing nganh tao dieu kien cho tien bp ciia siic san xuat, ma dugc hiit vao Unh vuc tai chinh, vi ty suat Igi nhuan trong Unh vuc tai chinh thudng la ldn hon d khu vuc san xuat rat nhieu. Khi chi ra ban chat cua tin dung vdi tu each la phuong tien banh trudng ca chieu rdng va chieu sau ciia tu ban, Mac da chiimg minh su hinh thanh ciia tu ban cd phan vdi tu each la ket qua, la the hien cua tu ban tai chinh. Tu ban tai chinh nay "sdng" khac thudng va chi la nhtrng hinh thiic phai sinh tir tu ban boat ddng, hoin toan tach rdi xa khdi qui trinh tao ra gia trj. O day, die tnmg ciia thi trudng ndi chung la sir thoit ly ciia gia ca khdi gii trj da dugc nang len luy thtra. Sir van ddng cua lao ddng xa hdi trim tugng dugc vat hda trong hang hda - gia trj bj tach rdi xa khdi khdi lugng tu ban gia. Chi trong thdi ky khiing hoang mdi rd tu ban niy la tu ban gia. Dieu nay bieu hien rd d sir mat gii ciia cd phieu, sir tut doe ciia thi trudng vdn...
Sir thdng trj ciia tu ban tai chinh hien nay da lam bien ddi tu ban gia. Mpt mat, dura tren quyen lire ciia cac cdng ty khdng Id (nim trong tay khdi lugng ldn ciia cai ciia xa hdi ngang vdi tiem ning ciia mdt nha nudc trung binh), dung hgp vdi cac nha nudc himg manh nhat tren thi gidi, tu ban tai chinh cd sure manh ldn hon rit nhiiu.
Mat khac, nd ngay cang thoat ly khdi co sd
vat chat cua minh, tach khdi tu ban d cac Unh vuc ma d dd tao ra gia trj, va trd thanh tu ban gia, sir chuyen hda dd da dugc cac nha khoa hgc My va chau Au ggi la tai chinh hda. Tai chinh hda dugc xac dinh bang nhtimg dac trung chu yeu: thii: nhdt, cd budc phat trien cd Igi cho khu vuc tai chinh (tang len vdi tdc do cao khdi lugng nhung hgp ddng cd ty suat Igi nhuan cao, chay vao Unh vuc nay cac ngudn lire con ngudi va cac ngudn lire khac, hinh thanh nhiing the che mdi...); thir hai, dudng nhu khu vuc nay cd anh hudng quyet djnh den toan bp he thdng sd hiim cac ngudn lire (hudng cac ddng dau tu, viec thdng qua quyet djnh, co cau gia ca trong toan bd nen kinh te hien nay phan nhieu dugc xac dinh bdi tinh hinh thi trudng ciia khu vuc tai chinh). Sir phat trien uu tien ciia tu ban tai chinh da trd thanh "ngudi dieu tiet" - thay the sir tic ddng ciia nha nudc den nen kinh te; thu ba, cd sir bien ddi can ban quan he sd hiru va phan phdi thu nhap (he thdng quyen sd hiiu ddi vdi tu ban gia thudng xuyen bien ddi, hang ty ddla thay ddi chu sd hiiu cua minh trong timg giay; hang nghin ty - trong moi ngay). Cudi ciing, toan bd he thdng tai sin xuat xa hdi cd dugc nhtimg dac trung rieng, trong dd sir phu thugc cua qua trinh tai san xuat xa hdi vao nhirng yeu td ngau nhien, tinh nii ro, khdng dn dinh eiia he thdng kinh te, nhirng con sdt... tang len. Dd la nhirng die tinh lam can cii de gpi he thdng nay la "chu nghia tu ban casino".
Vi vay, thudng xuyen thay ddi chu sd hiiu va sir xdi mdn, khuyech tan quyin sd hiiu la thude tinh ciia tu ban tai chinh gia.
Tu ban nay khdng cd mdt djnh vj nao trong
56 LV L U A N CHlNH TRI 1 - 2010
khdng gian va thdi gian cua ddi song kinh te va dugc "phi lanh thd hda", khdng cd
"dja chi"... Nhu thi, nd de dang thoat khdi bat ky sir dieu tiet nao ciia qudc gia, quoc te. Tu ban gia tdn tai dudi nhieu hinh thirc khac nhau: trong mang ludi may tinh, cic chimg khoin, ciing cd the don gian chi la nhirng ao tudng, cic loai tien. Tu ban tai chinh gia, khi dat tdi quy md khdng Id da chuyen hda thanh "hop den" die biet, tdn tai dpc lap tuong ddi vdi he thdng tai sin xuat xa hdi. Nhtrng bien ddi trong ket cau va khdi lugng ciia nd dien ra nhanh chdng, nd cd mat d khap mpi noi, sir hieu biet cau tao ben trong, he thdng tic ddng lan nhau ciia nd... li mdt nhiem vu khdng the giai quyet dugc ve mat nguyen tac. Ve ly luan va thuc tien, md hinh dieu chinh boat ddng ciia cii "hop den" niy li khdng cd. Vdi tu cich li "hop den", nd cd kha ning tiep tuc boat ddng mdt each dn djnh tuomg ddi, nhumg ciing cd the de ra lihiing hoang tai chinh. Day la he thdng khdng the nhan thirc va khdng the dieu tiet dugc.
Cac giai phap khac phuc khiing hoang kinh te the gioi
Gidi tien te each day khdng lau da cho rang, he thdng "hop den" niy cd kha ning tu dieu tiet, va cho den nay, mpi ngudi deu thay rd dd la sai lam. Hpc thuyet cua Mic da chiing minh ring, mau thuan ben trong cua phuong thiic san xuat tu ban chii nghia quy djnh tinh tat yeu khach quan phai dua nha nudc vao boat ddng kinh te. O day, ket luan dd chinh li thude ve nhiing ngudi micxit, chii khdng phai la thuoc ve Keynes.
Vao dau the ky XX, cic nha micxit Nga, vi sau dd la cac nhi dan chu - xa hdi Dire
va nhieu nha micxit khac da chimg minh tinh quy luat dd. Tu tudng ve dieu tiet giin tiep khu vuc sin xuat hing hda tu bin chii nghia tren thuc tien da dupc thuc hien trong thdi ky chinh sdch kinh te mdi (NEP) d Lien Xd. Ly luan v i thuc tien ciia chii nghia Mic da chimg minh rang, nhi nudc trong dieu kien tu bin chu nghia khdng chi l i ngudi hinh thinh cic "luat choi" va dam bao tinh dn dinh ciia chiing (nhu bao hd quyen sd hum, dn djnh be thdng tien te...), m i cdn vdi tu cich li mdt loai tu ban die biet (sd hiim nhi nudc, kinh doanh ciia nha nudc, don dit hang ciia nha nudc. ddng vai trd "manh thudng quan"...) v i li chii the dieu tiet kinh te. Trong cudc khiing hoang kinhte nay, tat ca cic chinh phii tren the gidi deu i p dung nhtimg budc di nhanh chdng de thay the sir tu dieu tiet ciia thj trudng bing nhiimg tic ddng true tiep vao nen kinh te. Nhumg sir dieu phdi dd chi che dau nhiing mau thuan sau sac ben trong cua chu nghia tu bin. Ding sau nhiimg chuong trinh thoit khdi khiing hoing, cac mau thuan ve Igi ich kinh te ciia cic tang ldp xa hdi khic nhau trong x i hdi hien dai bj che day di. Hang nghin ty ddla lay tir ngudn ddng thue ciia dan da dupc cic chinh phii My, EU... diing de hd trg tnrdc het cho cic dinh che tai chinh tu nhan nhim dam bio dn djnh he thdng tii chinh. Dieu niy dudng nhu li phii hgp vdi Igi ich ciia mpi ngudi dan trong nudc (ngin can sir mat gii ciia cac khoan tien gui, duy tri viec lim...), nhung thuc ra li hd trg cho chinh cac chii the kinh te ma boat ddng dau co v i thu nhap sieu ngach ciia hp da trd thanh nguyen nhan true tiep nd ra khiing hoang.
Neu gpi mpt each dung dan nen kinh te trong 10 nam gan day la "chu nghia tu ban sdng bae", thi can phai nhan manh: xa hpi, vi cac cupc choi trong cic sdng bae, khdng nen hd trg cho cac con bae - dd la luat cua sdng bae. Cac ngudn vdn ngan sach nha nudc khdng the chay vao cac ngan hang thuong mai, ma can diing de true tiep hd trg cho san xuat, viec lam xa hdi, giai quyet cac van de xa hdi khdng can phai thdng qua cac dinh che tai chinh tu nhan. Can nhan manh rang, chinh sach nay dang dugc i p dung d Trung Qudc, d dd cd hom 500 ty ddla dugc Nha nudc danh cho phit trien ket cau ha tang, nong nghiep va cac nganh cd ham lupmg khoa hpc ldn, giai quyet cic nhiem vu xa hpi, nhan dao v i sinh thai.
Nhtrng giai phap dd ve mat nguyen tic khic vdi nhumg giai phap dugc ap dung d My, noi ma 700 ty ddla dugc diing de giup dd cac dinh che tii chinh tu nhan.
Khi ndi ve cac giai phap khac phuc khung hoang, cd the thay: neu cin can luc lugng kinh te - xa hpi khdng dugc hinh thanh vi Igi ich ciia da sd nhan dan. thi viec thoat khdi khung hoang se di theo kich ban day manh tap trung hda tu ban va tiep tuc cimg cd mpt vii dinh che tai chinh ldn nhat, trong khi lim xau di nghiem trpng hoan canh ciia phan ldn nhirng ngudi kinh doanh hang hda va dich vu, lam giam CO ban chat lugng sdng ciia tat ca cac tang ldp lao ddng lam thue, ke ca nhu'ng ngudi lam thue trong Unh vuc tai chinh. Va kich bin nay hien nay la cd the dugc thuc hien nhieu hon, vi nhirng bien phip khdi phuc kinh te nam trong chuopg trinh cua cac chinh phii ciia cac nudc dirng dau the gidi.
Vdi kjch ban dd, chung ta cd the du doin
sir xuit hien mdt md hinh chu nghia tu ban mdi - md binh ngugc lai vdi md hinh tu do mdi ciia chii nghia tu ban toan cau dau the ky XXI. Viec gia tang sir can thiep ciia nha nudc vao nen kinh te se cd the thoat khdi ngd cut khiing hoang hien nay, nhung vdi ban chat va nhtrng mau thuan ndi tai ciia minh, chu nghia tu ban toan cau chic chan lai se gap phai cai ngd cut ay (khiing hoang nhu da chirng kien). Con dudng co ban hon (tir nhiing gi cd the trong pham vi phuong thirc san xuat tu ban chu nghia) la xa hpi hda tii chinh. Thuc chat la can thiep true tiep vao Unh vuc tai chinh, trir bd nhirng bong bdng tai chinh, ddng thdi giir lai nhtrng chirc nang cd ich ciia he thdng tai chinh.
Mdt sd qudc gia lira chpn giai phap uu tien muc tieu kinh te - xa hdi, han che kinh doanh ldn, xa hdi hda giao due, y te. tai chinh (nhu Na Uy bay Veneduela...), nhung dieu dd phu thupe vao chd tiem ning cac qudc gia hien dang thi hanh chinh sich do cd dil manh hay khdng. Cd the cd nhiing budc di mem deo hon, gan vdi sir kiem soit ciia nha nudc ddi vdi Unh vuc tai chinh, vdi viec ban che cac nghiep vu dau co tai chinh va nhumg thu nhap tir dau co...
Giai phap phat trien nen kinh te tranh khung hoang theo quan diem macxit
Theo Mic, san xuat va trao ddi hudng den nhu cau thuc te ciia xa hdi cang diy dii va chinh xac thi khiing hoang san xuit thira cang it cd kha ning xay ra. Cho nen, toin bp cac bien phip dieu tiet chdng khiing hoing se li: lim the nao de ngudi san xuit cd dugc sir dam bao ciia xa hdi chir khdng
58 LV LUAN CHlNH TRI 1 - 2010
phai li sir dam bao ciia thj trudng ve mat sin xuat (dau tu dugc dam bao, tin dung gii re...) va thuc hien dugc gia tri sin pham hang hda cua minh. Mudn vay, de cd the tranh dugc khimg hoang trong qua trinh phit trien kinh te thj trudng, chi cd con dudng duy nhat l i ket hgp ke hoach vdi thi trudng, coi thi trudng vira la ddi tugng, vira la cin Cli ciia ke hoach. Ke hoach hoi cua nhi nudc ndi chung khdng cd nghia la tap trung hoi tat ca cic mat boat ddng kinh te.
Ngugc lai, nhiimg ngudi sin xuat dugc ddc lap v i tu chju trich nhiem, vdi sir hien dien cua CO che thj trudng, hp cd the dam bao nang cao hieu qua sin xuat - kinh doanh.
Ke hoach la phuong thirc ket ndi cic muc tieu, cic ngudn lire va cac chu the kinh te thj trudng thinh mdt the thdng nhat, cho phep hinh thanh mdt he thdng boat dpng hieu qua. Ddng thdi, sir dung cac cdng cu dieu tiet thi trudng dudi dang thue, lai suat tin dung... de khic phuc sir mat can bang va hinh thanh cac ty le can ddi chii yeu la trong ngin ban. Khac vdi thj trudng, ke hoach can ddi sin xuat vdi tieu diing, nghia li hinh thanh nhtimg can ddi co ban trong mpt trien vpng dai. C) day, cac chi tieu tang trudng v i cac ty le can ddi kinh te cd the dupc hinh thanh tren co sd cac phuong hudng phit trien va xay dung cic chuong trinh ke hoach. Ke hoach chi mang tinh chat hudng dan v i dugc thuc hien dudi dang kit hgp cac chuong trinh khac nhau hudng den giai quyet cac van de kinh te - xi hpi quan trpng nhat. Viec thu hiit va tuyIn chpn cic cdng ty vao thuc hien cac chuong trinh dd dupc tien hanh tren co sd canh tranh. Cic chuong trinh thudng dugc hpp thirc boa dudi hinh thirc don dit hang
ciia nha nudc, dugc dam bao bing cac ngudn lyc va thudng la cd Igi nhuan cao.
De tranh dugc khiing hoang, can phai dam bao cac ty le can ddi kinh te qudc dan.
Trong dieu kien thj trudng. ty le can ddi dugc thuc hien tren co sd he thdng cac hpp ddng theo ke hoach, trong he thdng do cac ty le phit trien kinh te quoc dan giira cac nganh, cac viing trd thanh doi tugng ciia ke hoach kinh te qudc dan. Chinh quyen cac cap, cac tap doan kinh te va cac xi nghiep quan trpng nhat ddng vai trd la chu the ciia ke hoach hoi.
Mudn vay. can phai tang cudng cdng tic du doan va xay dung cac chuong trinh phat tnen kinh te - xa hpi ciia dat nudc, lap ke hoach trien vpng dai ban (10 nam), trung ban (tir 3 - 5 nim), ngan ban (1 nam); cac du an phit trien khu vuc kinh te nha nudc hing nam; kiem soat dupc trang thai nen kinh te hang thing. Trong kinh te thj trudng, thj trudng dieu tiet boat ddng cua nhirng ngudi sin xuat, cdn nha nudc thuc hien chirc nang dieu tiet cac quan he thi trudng, dieu tiet boat ddng ciia thi trudng.
Phuong thirc quan trpng nhat ciia su tic ddng ciia nhi nudc den cac qua trinh kinh te trong dieu kien thi trudng la tic dpng thdng qua khu vuc kinh te nha nudc de giai quyet nhirng nhiem vu kinh te - td chirc nhim tao ra co cau san xuat hgp ly. phdi hpp tdi uu cic quyen tai sin ciia cic chii the kinh doanh.
(1) Harvard business Reviw (wv.'w.hbr-russia.ru).
(2) PocBH3HecKoHcaJiTHHr (http://vAvw.quote, ru/rbc 100/2008/11/indcx.slitm).
