Penjadwalan Flowshop dengan Metode Algoritma Genetikdi PT. Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Food Division

(1)

Lampiran 1 Peramalan Produk Nugget PT. Charoen Pokphand Indonesia

Food Division

1. Peramalan Produk Stikie Fiesta

Tabel Data Permintaan Stikie Fiesta 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015

Periode Jumlah

23 Juni - 29 Juni 2014 3.930 30 Juni - 06 Juli 2014 3.952 07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014 4.819 14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014 3.903 21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014 4.818 28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014 4.490 04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014 4.117 11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014 4.202 18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014 4.173 25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014 4.342 01 September - 07 September 2014 4.509 08 September - 14 September 2014 4.382 15 September - 21 September 2014 3.941 22 September - 28 September 2014 4.145 29 September - 05 Oktober 2014 4.343 06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014 4.141 13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014 5.074 20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014 5.135 27 Oktober - 02 November 2014 4.792 03 November - 09 November 2014 4.734 10 November - 16 November 2014 4.792 17 November - 23 November 2014 4.558 24 November - 30 November 2014 4.720 01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014 4.936 08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014 3.941 15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014 4.145 22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014 4.343 29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015 4.141 05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015 3.891 12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015 4.105

(2)

Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Stikie Fiesta

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stikie Fiesta dengan

Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown

Periode Xt S't S''t at bt Ft+m et et^2

1 3.930 3.930 3.930

2 3.952 3.934,400 3.930,880 3.937,920 0,880

3 4.819 4.111,320 3.966,968 4.255,672 36,088 3.938,800 880,200 774.752,040

4 3.903 4.069,656 3.987,506 4.151,806 20,538 4.291,760 -388,760 151.134,338

5 4.818 4.219,325 4.033,870 4.404,780 46,364 4.172,344 645,656 416.871,670

6 4.490 4.273,460 4.081,788 4.465,132 47,918 4.451,144 38,856 1.509,789

7 4.117 4.242,168 4.113,864 4.370,472 32,076 4.513,050 -396,050 156.855,603

8 4.202 4.234,134 4.137,918 4.330,350 24,054 4.402,548 -200,548 40.219,500

9 4.173 4.221,907 4.154,716 4.289,098 16,798 4.354,404 -181,404 32.907,411

10 4.342 4.245,926 4.172,958 4.318,894 18,242 4.305,896 36,104 1.303,499

11 4.509 4.298,541 4.198,075 4.399,007 25,117 4.337,136 171,864 29.537,234

12 4.382 4.315,233 4.221,507 4.408,959 23,432 4.424,124 -42,124 1.774,431

13 3.941 4.240,386 4.225,283 4.255,489 3,776 4.432,391 -491,391 241.465,115

14 4.145 4.221,309 4.224,488 4.218,130 -0,795 4.259,265 -114,265 13.056,490

15 4.343 4.245,647 4.228,720 4.262,574 4,232 4.217,335 125,665 15.791,692

16 4.141 4.224,718 4.227,920 4.221,516 -0,801 4.266,806 -125,806 15.827,150 3.000

3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Stikie Fiesta

(3)

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stikie Fiesta dengan

Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)

17 5.074 4.394,574 4.261,251 4.527,897 33,331 4.220,715 853,285 728.095,291

18 5.135 4.542,659 4.317,533 4.767,785 56,281 4.561,228 573,772 329.214,308

19 4.792 4.592,527 4.372,532 4.812,522 54,999 4.824,066 -32,066 1.028,228

20 4.734 4.620,822 4.422,190 4.819,454 49,658 4.867,521 -133,521 17.827,857

21 4.792 4.655,058 4.468,764 4.841,352 46,574 4.869,112 -77,112 5.946,261

22 4.558 4.635,646 4.502,140 4.769,152 33,376 4.887,926 -329,926 108.851,165

23 4.720 4.652,517 4.532,215 4.772,819 30,075 4.802,528 -82,528 6.810,871

24 4.936 4.709,214 4.567,615 4.850,813 35,400 4.802,894 133,106 17.717,207

25 3.941 4.555,571 4.565,206 4.545,936 -2,409 4.886,213 -945,213 893.427,615

26 4.145 4.473,457 4.546,856 4.400,058 -18,350 4.543,527 -398,527 158.823,770

27 4.343 4.447,366 4.526,958 4.367,774 -19,898 4.381,708 -38,708 1.498,309

28 4.141 4.386,093 4.498,785 4.273,401 -28,173 4.347,876 -206,876 42.797,679

29 3.891 4.287,074 4.456,443 4.117,705 -42,342 4.245,228 -354,228 125.477,476

30 4.105 4.250,659 4.415,286 4.086,032 -41,157 4.075,363 29,637 878,352

144.380,012

MSE

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt

Periode Xt St Bt Ft Et Et^2

1 3.930 3.733,5 0

(4)

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)

14 4.145 4.135,054 0,200 3.946,081 9,946 98,923 15 4.343 4.332,613 19,936 4.135,254 10,387 107,890 16 4.141 4.151,577 -0,161 4.352,549 -10,577 111,873 17 5.074 5.027,871 87,485 4.151,416 46,129 2.127,885 18 5.135 5.134,018 89,351 5.115,356 0,982 0,964 19 4.792 4.813,568 48,371 5.223,369 -21,568 465,179 20 4.734 4.740,397 36,217 4.861,939 -6,397 40,922 21 4.792 4.791,231 37,679 4.776,614 0,769 0,591 22 4.558 4.571,546 11,943 4.828,910 -13,546 183,494 23 4.720 4.713,174 24,912 4.583,489 6,826 46,594 24 4.936 4.926,104 43,714 4.738,086 9,896 97,931 25 3.941 3.992,441 -54,024 4.969,818 -51,441 2.646,176 26 4.145 4.134,671 -34,399 3.938,417 10,329 106,688 27 4.343 4.330,864 -11,340 4.100,272 12,136 147,282 28 4.141 4.149,926 -28,300 4.319,524 -8,926 79,673 29 3.891 3.902,531 -50,210 4.121,626 -11,531 132,964 30 4.105 4.092,366 -26,206 3.852,321 12,634 159,618

477,714 MSE

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta

Periode Xt Ft Et MR

1 3.930

(5)

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Stikie Fiesta (Lanjutan)

14 4.145 3.946,081 9,946 33,724 15 4.343 4.135,254 10,387 0,441 16 4.141 4.352,549 -10,577 20,964 17 5.074 4.151,416 46,129 56,706 18 5.135 5.115,356 0,982 45,147 19 4.792 5.223,369 -21,568 22,550 20 4.734 4.861,939 -6,397 15,171 21 4.792 4.776,614 0,769 7,166 22 4.558 4.828,910 -13,546 14,315 23 4.720 4.583,489 6,826 20,372 24 4.936 4.738,086 9,896 3,070 25 3.941 4.969,818 -51,441 61,337 26 4.145 3.938,417 10,329 61,770 27 4.343 4.100,272 12,136 1,807 28 4.141 4.319,524 -8,926 21,062 29 3.891 4.121,626 -11,531 2,605 30 4.105 3.852,321 12,634 24,165

Jumlah 763,585

GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Stikie

Fiesta -80,000

-60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(6)

2. Peramalan Produk Nugget ABC Fiesta

Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget ABC Fiesta 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015

(7)

GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget ABC Fiesta

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown

1 2.681 2.681 2.681

2 2.848 2.697,700 2.682,670 2.712,730 1,670

3 2.980 2.725,930 2.686,996 2.764,864 4,326 2.714,400 265,600 70.543,360

4 3.061 2.759,437 2.694,240 2.824,634 7,244 2.769,190 291,810 85.153,076

5 2.833 2.766,793 2.701,495 2.832,091 7,255 2.831,878 1,122 1,259

6 2.873 2.777,414 2.709,087 2.845,741 7,592 2.839,346 33,654 1.132,592

7 3.000 2.799,673 2.718,146 2.881,200 9,059 2.853,333 146,667 21.511,209

8 2.993 2.819,006 2.728,232 2.909,780 10,086 2.890,259 102,741 10.555,713

9 2.671 2.804,205 2.735,829 2.872,581 7,597 2.919,866 -248,866 61.934,286

10 2.639 2.787,685 2.741,015 2.834,355 5,186 2.880,178 -241,178 58.166,828

11 2.783 2.787,217 2.745,635 2.828,799 4,620 2.839,541 -56,541 3.196,885

12 2.817 2.790,195 2.750,091 2.830,299 4,456 2.833,419 -16,419 269,584

13 2.668 2.777,976 2.752,880 2.803,072 2,788 2.834,755 -166,755 27.807,230

14 2.912 2.791,378 2.756,730 2.826,026 3,850 2.805,860 106,140 11.265,700

15 3.070 2.819,240 2.762,981 2.875,499 6,251 2.829,876 240,124 57.659,535

16 2.836 2.820,916 2.768,775 2.873,057 5,793 2.881,750 -45,750 2.093,063

17 2.798 2.818,624 2.773,760 2.863,488 4,985 2.878,850 -80,850 6.536,723

18 2.916 2.828,362 2.779,220 2.877,504 5,460 2.868,473 47,527 2.258,816

19 2.938 2.839,326 2.785,231 2.893,421 6,011 2.882,964 55,036 3.028,961 2.000

2.200 2.400 2.600 2.800 3.000 3.200 3.400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Nugget ABC Fiesta

(8)

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)

20 2.937 2.849,093 2.791,617 2.906,569 6,386 2.899,432 37,568 1.411,355

21 2.513 2.815,484 2.794,004 2.836,964 2,387 2.912,955 -399,955 159.964,002

22 2.599 2.793,836 2.793,987 2.793,685 -0,017 2.839,351 -240,351 57.768,603

23 2.781 2.792,552 2.793,844 2.791,260 -0,144 2.793,668 -12,668 160,478

24 2.797 2.792,997 2.793,759 2.792,235 -0,085 2.791,116 5,884 34,621

25 2.668 2.780,497 2.792,433 2.768,561 -1,326 2.792,150 -124,150 15.413,223

26 2.912 2.793,647 2.792,554 2.794,740 0,121 2.767,235 144,765 20.956,905

27 3.070 2.821,282 2.795,427 2.847,137 2,873 2.794,861 275,139 75.701,469

28 2.836 2.822,754 2.798,160 2.847,348 2,733 2.850,010 -14,010 196,280

29 2.795 2.819,979 2.800,342 2.839,616 2,182 2.850,081 -55,081 3.033,917

30 2.915 2.829,481 2.803,256 2.855,706 2,914 2.841,798 73,202 5.358,533

25.437,140 MSE

Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta dengan

Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt

1 2.681 2.547,0 0

(9)

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)

21 2.513 2.534,722 -10,723 2.947,439 -21,722 471,845 22 2.599 2.595,250 -7,160 2.523,999 3,750 14,063 23 2.781 2.771,355 2,003 2.588,090 9,645 93,026 24 2.797 2.795,818 3,126 2.773,358 1,182 1,397 25 2.668 2.674,547 -3,094 2.798,944 -6,547 42,863 26 2.912 2.899,973 8,332 2.671,453 12,027 144,649 27 3.070 3.061,915 16,013 2.908,305 8,085 65,367 28 2.836 2.848,096 4,521 3.077,928 -12,096 146,313 29 2.795 2.797,881 1,784 2.852,617 -2,881 8,300 30 2.915 2.909,233 7,262 2.799,665 5,767 33,258

76,457 MSE

TabelVerifikasi Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta

1 2.681

(10)

TabelVerifikasi Peramalan Nugget ABC Fiesta (Lanjutan)

22 2.599 2.523,999 3,750 25,472 23 2.781 2.588,090 9,645 5,895 24 2.797 2.773,358 1,182 8,463 25 2.668 2.798,944 -6,547 7,729 26 2.912 2.671,453 12,027 18,574 27 3.070 2.908,305 8,085 3,942 28 2.836 3.077,928 -12,096 20,181 29 2.795 2.852,617 -2,881 9,215 30 2.915 2.799,665 5,767 8,648

Jumlah 304,179

GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget ABC Fiesta

3. Peramalan Produk Nugget Champ -40,000

-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(11)

TabelData Permintaan Nugget Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015

07 Juli - 13 Juli 2014 5.576 14 Juli - 20 Juli 2014 4.647 21 Juli - 27 Juli 2014 5.238 28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014 5.290 04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014 6.836 11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014 8.036 18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014 5.998 25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014 6.530 01 September - 07 September 2014 6.599 08 September - 14 September 2014 6.626 15 September - 21 September 2014 5.901 22 September - 28 September 2014 7.151 29 September - 05 Oktober 2014 6.866 06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014 7.683 13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014 5.961 20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014 6.390 27 Oktober - 02 November 2014 6.974 03 November - 09 November 2014 6.761 10 November - 16 November 2014 9.235 17 November - 23 November 2014 9.383 24 November - 30 November 2014 9.439 01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014 9.199 08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014 5.901 15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014 7.151 22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014 6.866 29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015 7.683 05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015 4.575 12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015 4.799

(12)

GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Champ

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan

1 5.829 5.829 5.829

2 6.220 5.946,300 5.864,190 6.028,410 35,190

3 5.576 5.835,210 5.855,496 5.814,924 -8,694 6.063,600 -487,600 237.753,760

4 4.647 5.478,747 5.742,471 5.215,023 -113,025 5.806,230 -1.159,230 1.343.814,193

5 5.238 5.406,523 5.641,687 5.171,359 -100,785 5.101,998 136,002 18.496,544

6 5.290 5.371,566 5.560,651 5.182,481 -81,036 5.070,574 219,426 48.147,769

7 6.836 5.810,896 5.635,725 5.986,067 75,073 5.101,445 1.734,555 3.008.681,048

8 8.036 6.478,427 5.888,536 7.068,318 252,810 6.061,140 1.974,860 3.900.072,020

9 5.998 6.334,299 6.022,265 6.646,333 133,729 7.321,128 -1.323,128 1.750.667,704

10 6.530 6.393,009 6.133,488 6.652,530 111,223 6.780,062 -250,062 62.531,004

11 6.599 6.454,806 6.229,883 6.679,729 96,396 6.763,753 -164,753 27.143,551

12 6.626 6.506,164 6.312,767 6.699,561 82,884 6.776,125 -150,125 22.537,516

13 5.901 6.324,615 6.316,321 6.332,909 3,555 6.782,445 -881,445 776.945,288

14 7.151 6.572,531 6.393,184 6.751,878 76,863 6.336,464 814,536 663.468,895

15 6.866 6.660,572 6.473,400 6.847,744 80,217 6.828,741 37,259 1.388,233

16 7.683 6.967,300 6.621,570 7.313,030 148,170 6.927,961 755,039 570.083,892

17 5.961 6.665,410 6.634,722 6.696,098 13,152 7.461,200 -1.500,200 2.250.600,040

18 6.390 6.582,787 6.619,142 6.546,432 -15,581 6.709,250 -319,250 101.920,563

19 6.974 6.700,151 6.643,445 6.756,857 24,303 6.530,851 443,149 196.381,036

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan

4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 7.000 7.500 8.000 8.500 9.000 9.500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Nugget Champ

(13)

20 6.761 6.718,406 6.665,933 6.770,879 22,488 6.781,160 -20,160 406,426

21 9.235 7.473,384 6.908,168 8.038,600 242,235 6.793,367 2.441,633 5.961.571,707

22 9.383 8.046,269 7.249,598 8.842,940 341,430 8.280,835 1.102,165 1.214.767,687

23 9.439 8.464,088 7.613,945 9.314,231 364,347 9.184,370 254,630 64.836,437

24 9.199 8.684,562 7.935,130 9.433,994 321,185 9.678,578 -479,578 229.995,058

25 5.901 7.849,493 7.909,439 7.789,547 -25,691 9.755,179 -3.854,179 14.854.695,764

26 7.151 7.639,945 7.828,591 7.451,299 -80,848 7.763,856 -612,856 375.592,477

27 6.866 7.407,762 7.702,342 7.113,182 -126,249 7.370,451 -504,451 254.470,811

28 7.683 7.490,333 7.638,739 7.341,927 -63,603 6.986,933 696,067 484.509,268

29 4.575 6.615,733 7.331,837 5.899,629 -306,902 7.278,324 -2.703,324 7.307.960,649

30 4.799 6.070,713 6.953,500 5.187,926 -378,337 5.592,727 -793,727 630.002,551

1.545.314,730

MSE

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan

1 5.829 5.537,6 0

2 6.220 6.185,88 64,833 5.537,550 34,122 1.164,311 3 5.576 5.609,736 0,736 6.250,711 -33,736 1.138,118 4 4.647 4.695,174 -90,794 5.610,472 -48,174 2.320,734 5 5.238 5.206,319 -30,600 4.604,380 31,681 1.003,686 6 5.290 5.284,286 -19,743 5.175,719 5,714 32,650 7 6.836 6.757,427 129,545 5.264,543 78,573 6.173,716 8 8.036 7.978,549 238,703 6.886,972 57,451 3.300,617 9 5.998 6.108,963 27,874 8.217,252 -110,963 12.312,787 10 6.530 6.510,342 65,225 6.136,837 19,658 386,437 11 6.599 6.597,828 67,451 6.575,567 1,172 1,374 12 6.626 6.627,964 63,719 6.665,279 -1,964 3,857 13 5.901 5.940,534 -11,396 6.691,683 -39,534 1.562,937 14 7.151 7.089,907 104,681 5.929,138 61,093 3.732,355 15 6.866 6.882,429 73,465 7.194,588 -16,429 269,912 16 7.683 7.646,645 142,540 6.955,894 36,355 1.321,686 17 5.961 6.052,409 -31,138 7.789,185 -91,409 8.355,605 18 6.390 6.371,564 3,891 6.021,271 18,436 339,886 19 6.974 6.944,073 60,753 6.375,455 29,927 895,625 20 6.761 6.773,191 37,589 7.004,826 -12,191 148,620

TabelPerhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ dengan

(14)

21 9.235 9.113,789 267,890 6.810,780 121,211 14.692,107 22 9.383 9.382,934 268,016 9.381,679 0,066 0,004 23 9.439 9.449,598 247,881 9.650,950 -10,598 112,318 24 9.199 9.223,924 200,526 9.697,479 -24,924 621,206 25 5.901 6.077,173 -134,202 9.424,450 -176,173 31.036,926 26 7.151 7.090,599 -19,439 5.942,971 60,401 3.648,281 27 6.866 6.876,258 -38,929 7.071,160 -10,258 105,227 28 7.683 7.640,716 41,410 6.837,329 42,284 1.787,937 29 4.575 4.730,356 -253,767 7.682,126 -155,356 24.135,487 30 4.799 4.782,879 -223,138 4.476,589 16,121 259,887

4.028,810 MSE

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Champ

1 5.829

2 6.220 5.537,550 34,122 0,000 3 5.576 6.250,711 -33,736 67,858 4 4.647 5.610,472 -48,174 14,438 5 5.238 4.604,380 31,681 79,855 6 5.290 5.175,719 5,714 25,967 7 6.836 5.264,543 78,573 72,859 8 8.036 6.886,972 57,451 21,122 9 5.998 8.217,252 -110,963 168,414 10 6.530 6.136,837 19,658 130,621 11 6.599 6.575,567 1,172 18,486 12 6.626 6.665,279 -1,964 3,136 13 5.901 6.691,683 -39,534 37,570 14 7.151 5.929,138 61,093 100,627 15 6.866 7.194,588 -16,429 77,522 16 7.683 6.955,894 36,355 52,784 17 5.961 7.789,185 -91,409 127,764 18 6.390 6.021,271 18,436 109,845 19 6.974 6.375,455 29,927 11,491 20 6.761 7.004,826 -12,191 42,118 21 9.235 6.810,780 121,211 133,402

(15)

GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Champ

4. Peramalan Produk Nugget Coin Champ

Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Coin Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015

(16)

28 Juli - 03 Agustus 2014 3.188 04 Agustus - 10 Agustus 2014 4.188 11 Agustus - 17 Agustus 2014 3.012 18 Agustus - 24 Agustus 2014 3.011 25 Agustus - 31 Agustus 2014 3.590 01 September - 07 September 2014 3.610 08 September - 14 September 2014 3.427 15 September - 21 September 2014 4.502 22 September - 28 September 2014 4.560 29 September - 05 Oktober 2014 4.294 06 Oktober - 12 Oktober 2014 4.186 13 Oktober - 19 Oktober 2014 3.196 20 Oktober - 26 Oktober 2014 3.082 27 Oktober - 02 November 2014 3.398 03 November - 09 November 2014 3.766 10 November - 16 November 2014 3.420 17 November - 23 November 2014 3.780 24 November - 30 November 2014 3.940 01 Desember - 07 Desember 2014 4.138 08 Desember - 14 Desember 2014 4.502 15 Desember - 21 Desember 2014 4.560 22 Desember - 28 Desember 2014 4.294 29 Desember - 04 Januari 2015 4.186 05 Januari - 11 Januari 2015 2.799 12 Januari - 18 Januari 2015 2.967

(17)

GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Coin Champ

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown

1 4.353 4.353 4.353

2 4.180 4.283,800 4.325,320 4.242,280 -27,680

3 3.220 3.858,280 4.138,504 3.578,056 -186,816 4.214,600 -994,600 989.229,160

4 3.001 3.515,368 3.889,250 3.141,486 -249,255 3.391,240 -390,240 152.287,258

5 3.588 3.544,421 3.751,318 3.337,524 -137,931 2.892,231 695,769 484.094,501

6 3.188 3.401,853 3.611,532 3.192,174 -139,786 3.199,593 -11,593 134,398

7 4.188 3.716,312 3.653,444 3.779,180 41,912 3.052,388 1.135,612 1.289.614,615

8 3.012 3.434,587 3.565,901 3.303,273 -87,543 3.821,092 -809,092 654.629,864

9 3.011 3.265,152 3.445,601 3.084,703 -120,299 3.215,730 -204,730 41.914,373

10 3.590 3.395,091 3.425,397 3.364,785 -20,204 2.964,404 625,596 391.370,355

11 3.610 3.481,055 3.447,660 3.514,450 22,263 3.344,581 265,419 70.447,246

12 3.427 3.459,433 3.452,369 3.466,497 4,709 3.536,713 -109,713 12.036,942

13 4.502 3.876,460 3.622,005 4.130,915 169,637 3.471,206 1.030,794 1.062.536,270

14 4.560 4.149,876 3.833,153 4.466,599 211,149 4.300,552 259,448 67.313,265

15 4.294 4.207,526 3.982,902 4.432,150 149,749 4.677,748 -383,748 147.262,528 2.500

3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Nugget Coin Champ

(18)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)

16 4.186 4.198,916 4.069,308 4.328,524 86,405 4.581,899 -395,899 156.736,018

17 3.196 3.797,750 3.960,685 3.634,815 -108,623 4.414,929 -1.218,929 1.485.787,907

18 3.082 3.511,450 3.780,991 3.241,909 -179,694 3.526,192 -444,192 197.306,533

19 3.398 3.466,070 3.655,023 3.277,117 -125,969 3.062,215 335,785 112.751,566

20 3.766 3.586,042 3.627,431 3.544,653 -27,593 3.151,148 614,852 378.042,982

21 3.420 3.519,625 3.584,309 3.454,941 -43,123 3.517,060 -97,060 9.420,644

22 3.780 3.623,775 3.600,095 3.647,455 15,787 3.411,818 368,182 135.557,985

23 3.940 3.750,265 3.660,163 3.840,367 60,068 3.663,242 276,758 76.594,991

24 4.138 3.905,359 3.758,241 4.052,477 98,079 3.900,435 237,565 56.437,129

25 4.502 4.144,015 3.912,551 4.375,479 154,309 4.150,556 351,444 123.512,885

26 4.560 4.310,409 4.071,694 4.549,124 159,143 4.529,788 30,212 912,765

27 4.294 4.303,845 4.164,554 4.443,136 92,861 4.708,267 -414,267 171.617,147

28 4.186 4.256,707 4.201,415 4.311,999 36,861 4.535,997 -349,997 122.497,900

29 2.799 3.673,624 3.990,299 3.356,949 -211,117 4.348,860 -1.549,860 2.402.066,020

30 2.967 3.390,974 3.750,569 3.031,379 -239,730 3.145,832 -178,832 31.980,884

360.803,138

MSE

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt

1 4.353 4.135,4 0

2 4.180 4.177,77 4,242 4.135,350 2,232 4,982

3 3.220 3.268,101 -87,149 4.182,010 -48,101 2.313,706

4 3.001 3.009,998 -104,244 3.180,952 -8,998 80,964

5 3.588 3.553,888 -39,431 2.905,754 34,112 1.163,629

6 3.188 3.204,323 -70,444 3.514,457 -16,323 266,440

7 4.188 4.135,294 29,698 3.133,879 52,706 2.777,922

8 3.012 3.069,650 -79,836 4.164,992 -57,650 3.323,523

9 3.011 3.009,941 -77,823 2.989,814 1,059 1,121

10 3.590 3.557,106 -15,324 2.932,118 32,894 1.082,015

11 3.610 3.606,589 -8,843 3.541,782 3,411 11,635

12 3.427 3.435,537 -25,064 3.597,746 -8,537 72,880

13 4.502 4.447,424 78,631 3.410,473 54,576 2.978,540

14 4.560 4.558,303 81,856 4.526,055 1,697 2,880

15 4.294 4.311,308 48,971 4.640,159 -17,308 299,567

(19)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)

17 3.196 3.247,556 -65,542 4.227,129 -51,556 2.658,021

18 3.082 3.087,001 -75,043 3.182,014 -5,001 25,010

19 3.398 3.378,698 -38,369 3.011,958 19,302 372,567

20 3.766 3.744,716 2,070 3.340,329 21,284 453,009

21 3.420 3.436,339 -28,975 3.746,786 -16,339 266,963

22 3.780 3.761,368 6,425 3.407,364 18,632 347,151

23 3.940 3.931,390 22,785 3.767,793 8,610 74,132

24 4.138 4.128,809 40,248 3.954,175 9,191 84,474

25 4.502 4.485,353 71,878 4.169,057 16,647 277,123

26 4.560 4.559,862 72,141 4.557,231 0,138 0,019

27 4.294 4.310,900 40,031 4.632,003 -16,900 285,610

28 4.186 4.194,247 24,363 4.350,931 -8,247 68,013

29 2.799 2.869,981 -110,500 4.218,610 -70,981 5.038,302

30 2.967 2.956,624 -90,786 2.759,481 10,376 107,661

817,126

MSE

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget Coin Champ

1 4.353

2 4.180 4.135,350 2,232 0,000 3 3.220 4.182,010 -48,101 50,333 4 3.001 3.180,952 -8,998 39,103 5 3.588 2.905,754 34,112 43,110 6 3.188 3.514,457 -16,323 50,435 7 4.188 3.133,879 52,706 69,029 8 3.012 4.164,992 -57,650 110,356 9 3.011 2.989,814 1,059 58,709 10 3.590 2.932,118 32,894 31,835 11 3.610 3.541,782 3,411 29,483 12 3.427 3.597,746 -8,537 11,948 13 4.502 3.410,473 54,576 63,113 14 4.560 4.526,055 1,697 52,879 15 4.294 4.640,159 -17,308 19,005 16 4.186 4.360,279 -8,714 8,594 17 3.196 4.227,129 -51,556 42,842

(20)

18 3.082 3.182,014 -5,001 46,555 19 3.398 3.011,958 19,302 24,303 20 3.766 3.340,329 21,284 1,982 21 3.420 3.746,786 -16,339 37,623 22 3.780 3.407,364 18,632 34,971 23 3.940 3.767,793 8,610 10,022 24 4.138 3.954,175 9,191 0,581 25 4.502 4.169,057 16,647 7,456 26 4.560 4.557,231 0,138 16,509 27 4.294 4.632,003 -16,900 17,038 28 4.186 4.350,931 -8,247 8,653 29 2.799 4.218,610 -70,981 62,734 30 2.967 2.759,481 10,376 81,357

Jumlah 1.030,558

Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Coin

Champ

5. Peramalan Produk Nugget Champ ABC

Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Champ ABC 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015 -150,000

-100,000 -50,000 0,000 50,000 100,000 150,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(21)

(22)

GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Champ ABC

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ ABC

dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown

1 3.129 3.129 3.129

2 3.419 3.274,000 3.201,500 3.346,500 72,500

3 4.178 3.726,000 3.463,750 3.988,250 262,250 3.419,000 759,000 576.081,000

4 4.114 3.920,000 3.691,875 4.148,125 228,125 4.250,500 -136,500 18.632,250

5 4.027 3.973,500 3.832,688 4.114,312 140,812 4.376,250 -349,250 121.975,563

6 3.998 3.985,750 3.909,219 4.062,281 76,531 4.255,124 -257,124 66.112,751

7 4.022 4.003,875 3.956,547 4.051,203 47,328 4.138,812 -116,812 13.645,043

8 3.946 3.974,938 3.965,743 3.984,133 9,195 4.098,531 -152,531 23.265,706

9 3.482 3.728,469 3.847,106 3.609,832 -118,637 3.993,328 -511,328 261.456,324

10 3.684 3.706,235 3.776,671 3.635,799 -70,436 3.491,195 192,805 37.173,768

11 3.886 3.796,118 3.786,395 3.805,841 9,723 3.565,363 320,637 102.808,086

12 3.680 3.738,059 3.762,227 3.713,891 -24,168 3.815,564 -135,564 18.377,598

13 3.617 3.677,530 3.719,879 3.635,181 -42,349 3.689,723 -72,723 5.288,635

14 3.632 3.654,765 3.687,322 3.622,208 -32,557 3.592,832 39,168 1.534,132

15 3.801 3.727,883 3.707,603 3.748,163 20,280 3.589,651 211,349 44.668,400

16 3.417 3.572,442 3.640,023 3.504,861 -67,581 3.768,443 -351,443 123.512,182

17 3.182 3.377,221 3.508,622 3.245,820 -131,401 3.437,280 -255,280 65.167,878 3.000

3.200 3.400 3.600 3.800 4.000 4.200 4.400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Nugget Champ ABC

(23)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error PeramalanNugget Champ ABC dengan Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter Brown (Lanjutan)

18 3.390 3.383,611 3.446,117 3.321,105 -62,506 3.114,419 275,581 75.944,888

19 3.222 3.302,806 3.374,462 3.231,150 -71,656 3.258,599 -36,599 1.339,487

20 3.254 3.278,403 3.326,433 3.230,373 -48,030 3.159,494 94,506 8.931,384

21 3.708 3.493,202 3.409,818 3.576,586 83,384 3.182,343 525,657 276.315,282

22 3.773 3.633,101 3.521,460 3.744,742 111,641 3.659,970 113,030 12.775,781

23 3.387 3.510,051 3.515,756 3.504,346 -5,705 3.856,383 -469,383 220.320,401

24 3.399 3.454,526 3.485,141 3.423,911 -30,615 3.498,641 -99,641 9.928,329

25 3.617 3.535,763 3.510,452 3.561,074 25,311 3.393,296 223,704 50.043,480

26 3.632 3.583,882 3.547,167 3.620,597 36,715 3.586,385 45,615 2.080,728

27 3.801 3.692,441 3.619,804 3.765,078 72,637 3.657,312 143,688 20.646,241

28 3.417 3.554,721 3.587,263 3.522,179 -32,542 3.837,715 -420,715 177.001,111

29 3.215 3.384,861 3.486,062 3.283,660 -101,201 3.489,637 -274,637 75.425,482

30 3.399 3.391,931 3.438,997 3.344,865 -47,066 3.182,459 216,541 46.890,005

81.911,397

MSE

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Champ ABCdengan Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt

1 3.129 2.972,6 0

2 3.419 3.396,68 42,413 2.972,550 22,322 498,272 3 4.178 4.141,055 112,609 3.439,091 36,945 1.364,933 4 4.114 4.120,983 99,341 4.253,664 -6,983 48,762 5 4.027 4.036,666 80,975 4.220,324 -9,666 93,432 6 3.998 4.003,982 69,609 4.117,641 -5,982 35,784 7 4.022 4.024,580 64,708 4.073,591 -2,580 6,656 8 3.946 3.953,164 51,096 4.089,288 -7,164 51,323 9 3.482 3.508,113 1,481 4.004,260 -26,113 681,889 10 3.684 3.675,280 18,050 3.509,594 8,720 76,038 11 3.886 3.876,367 36,354 3.693,330 9,633 92,795 12 3.680 3.691,636 14,246 3.912,721 -11,636 135,396 13 3.617 3.621,444 5,802 3.705,882 -4,444 19,749 14 3.632 3.631,762 6,254 3.627,246 0,238 0,057 15 3.801 3.792,851 21,738 3.638,016 8,149 66,406

(24)

16 3.417 3.436,879 -16,033 3.814,589 -19,879 395,175 17 3.182 3.193,942 -38,723 3.420,846 -11,942 142,611 18 3.390 3.378,261 -16,419 3.155,219 11,739 137,804 19 3.222 3.228,992 -29,704 3.361,842 -6,992 48,888 20 3.254 3.251,264 -24,506 3.199,288 2,736 7,486 21 3.708 3.683,938 21,212 3.226,758 24,062 578,980 22 3.773 3.769,608 27,658 3.705,150 3,392 11,506 23 3.387 3.407,513 -11,317 3.797,266 -20,513 420,783 24 3.399 3.398,860 -11,051 3.396,196 0,140 0,020 25 3.617 3.605,540 10,722 3.387,809 11,460 131,332 26 3.632 3.631,213 12,217 3.616,262 0,787 0,619 27 3.801 3.793,122 27,186 3.643,430 7,878 62,063 28 3.417 3.437,165 -11,128 3.820,308 -20,165 406,627 29 3.215 3.225,552 -31,177 3.426,037 -10,552 111,345 30 3.399 3.388,769 -11,738 3.194,375 10,231 104,673

191,047 MSE

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget ChampABC

1 3.129

2 3.419 2.972,550 22,322 0,000 3 4.178 3.439,091 36,945 14,623 4 4.114 4.253,664 -6,983 43,928 5 4.027 4.220,324 -9,666 2,683 6 3.998 4.117,641 -5,982 3,684 7 4.022 4.073,591 -2,580 3,402 8 3.946 4.089,288 -7,164 4,584 9 3.482 4.004,260 -26,113 18,949 10 3.684 3.509,594 8,720 34,833 11 3.886 3.693,330 9,633 0,913 12 3.680 3.912,721 -11,636 21,269 13 3.617 3.705,882 -4,444 7,192 14 3.632 3.627,246 0,238 4,682 15 3.801 3.638,016 8,149 7,911 16 3.417 3.814,589 -19,879 28,028 17 3.182 3.420,846 -11,942 7,937

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan Nugget ChampABC (Lanjutan)

(25)

18 3.390 3.155,219 11,739 23,681 19 3.222 3.361,842 -6,992 18,731 20 3.254 3.199,288 2,736 9,728 21 3.708 3.226,758 24,062 21,326 22 3.773 3.705,150 3,392 20,670 23 3.387 3.797,266 -20,513 23,905 24 3.399 3.396,196 0,140 20,653 25 3.617 3.387,809 11,460 11,320 26 3.632 3.616,262 0,787 10,673 27 3.801 3.643,430 7,878 7,091 28 3.417 3.820,308 -20,165 28,043 29 3.215 3.426,037 -10,552 9,613 30 3.399 3.194,375 10,231 20,783

Jumlah 430,835

Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget

ChampABC

6. Peramalan Produk Stick Champ

Tabel Data Permintaan Stick Champ 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015 (Lanjutan)

-50,000 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(26)

(27)

Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Stick Champ

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champdengan

Periode Xt S't S''t at bt Ft+m et et^2 [PE]

1 3.418 3.418 3.418

2 3.535 3.476,500 3.447,250 3.505,750 29,250

3 3.816 3.646,250 3.546,750 3.745,750 99,500 3.535,000 281,000 78.961,000 7,363732

4 4.077 3.861,625 3.704,188 4.019,062 157,437 3.845,250 231,750 53.708,063 5,684327

5 4.376 4.118,813 3.911,501 4.326,125 207,312 4.176,499 199,501 39.800,649 4,558981

6 4.096 4.107,407 4.009,454 4.205,360 97,953 4.533,437 -437,437 191.351,129 10,67961

7 3.416 3.761,704 3.885,579 3.637,829 -123,875 4.303,313 -887,313 787.324,360 25,9752

8 3.396 3.578,852 3.732,216 3.425,488 -153,364 3.513,954 -117,954 13.913,146 3,473322

9 3.731 3.654,926 3.693,571 3.616,281 -38,645 3.272,124 458,876 210.567,183 12,29901

10 4.015 3.834,963 3.764,267 3.905,659 70,696 3.577,636 437,364 191.287,268 10,89325

11 4.934 4.384,482 4.074,375 4.694,589 310,107 3.976,355 957,645 917.083,946 19,4091

12 3.838 4.111,241 4.092,808 4.129,674 18,433 5.004,696 -1.166,696 1.361.179,556 30,39854

13 3.800 3.955,621 4.024,215 3.887,027 -68,594 4.148,107 -348,107 121.178,483 9,160711

14 3.424 3.689,811 3.857,013 3.522,609 -167,202 3.818,433 -394,433 155.577,391 11,51966

15 3.680 3.684,906 3.770,960 3.598,852 -86,054 3.355,407 324,593 105.360,616 8,820462

16 3.848 3.766,453 3.768,707 3.764,199 -2,254 3.512,798 335,202 112.360,381 8,711071

17 5.198 4.482,227 4.125,467 4.838,987 356,760 3.761,945 1.436,055 2.062.253,963 27,62707 3.000

3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Stick Champ

(28)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champdengan

18 6.338 5.410,114 4.767,791 6.052,437 642,323 5.195,747 1.142,253 1.304.741,916

19 6.174 5.792,057 5.279,924 6.304,190 512,133 6.694,760 -520,760 271.190,978

20 5.997 5.894,529 5.587,227 6.201,831 307,302 6.816,323 -819,323 671.290,178

21 4.775 5.334,765 5.460,996 5.208,534 -126,231 6.509,133 -1.734,133 3.007.217,262

22 4.373 4.853,883 5.157,440 4.550,326 -303,557 5.082,303 -709,303 503.110,746

23 4.575 4.714,442 4.935,941 4.492,943 -221,499 4.246,769 328,231 107.735,589

24 3.875 4.294,721 4.615,331 3.974,111 -320,610 4.271,444 -396,444 157.167,845

25 3.800 4.047,361 4.331,346 3.763,376 -283,985 3.653,501 146,499 21.461,957

26 3.848 3.947,681 4.139,514 3.755,848 -191,833 3.479,391 368,609 135.872,595

27 3.424 3.685,841 3.912,678 3.459,004 -226,837 3.564,015 -140,015 19.604,200

28 3.680 3.682,921 3.797,800 3.568,042 -114,879 3.232,167 447,833 200.554,396

29 3.709 3.695,961 3.746,881 3.645,041 -50,920 3.453,163 255,837 65.452,571

30 3.797 3.746,481 3.746,681 3.746,281 -0,200 3.594,121 202,879 41.159,889

430.282,242

MSE

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champ dengan

1 3.418 3.247,1 0

(29)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Champ dengan

Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter Holt (Lanjutan)

18 6.338 6.284,657 241,823 5.271,130 53,343 2.845,476 19 6.174 6.191,624 208,337 6.526,480 -17,624 310,605 20 5.997 6.017,148 170,056 6.399,961 -20,148 405,942 21 4.775 4.845,610 35,897 6.187,204 -70,610 4.985,772 22 4.373 4.398,425 -12,411 4.881,507 -25,425 646,431 23 4.575 4.565,551 5,543 4.386,014 9,449 89,284 24 3.875 3.909,805 -60,586 4.571,094 -34,805 1.211,388 25 3.800 3.802,461 -65,262 3.849,219 -2,461 6,057 26 3.848 3.842,460 -54,736 3.737,199 5,540 30,692 27 3.424 3.442,186 -89,290 3.787,724 -18,186 330,731 28 3.680 3.663,645 -58,215 3.352,896 16,355 267,486 29 3.709 3.703,822 -48,376 3.605,430 5,178 26,812 30 3.797 3.789,922 -34,928 3.655,446 7,078 50,098

826,931 MSE

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickChamp

1 3.418

2 3.535 3.247,100 14,395 0,000 3 3.816 3.547,956 13,402 0,993 4 4.077 3.855,413 11,079 2,323 5 4.376 4.139,787 11,811 0,732 6 4.096 4.460,495 -18,225 30,036 7 3.416 4.175,904 -37,995 19,770 8 3.396 3.443,483 -2,374 35,621 9 3.731 3.383,351 17,382 19,756 10 4.015 3.731,622 14,169 3,213 11 4.934 4.045,756 44,412 30,243 12 3.838 5.018,896 -59,045 103,457 13 3.800 3.914,168 -5,708 53,337 14 3.424 3.811,985 -19,399 13,691 15 3.680 3.412,817 13,359 32,758 16 3.848 3.661,441 9,328 4,031 17 5.198 3.851,195 67,340 58,012 18 6.338 5.271,130 53,343 13,997 19 6.174 6.526,480 -17,624 70,967

(30)

20 5.997 6.399,961 -20,148 2,524 21 4.775 6.187,204 -70,610 50,462 22 4.373 4.881,507 -25,425 45,185 23 4.575 4.386,014 9,449 34,874 24 3.875 4.571,094 -34,805 44,254 25 3.800 3.849,219 -2,461 32,344 26 3.848 3.737,199 5,540 8,001 27 3.424 3.787,724 -18,186 23,726 28 3.680 3.352,896 16,355 34,541 29 3.709 3.605,430 5,178 11,177 30 3.797 3.655,446 7,078 1,900

Jumlah 781,925

Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk StickChamp

7. Peramalan Produk StickOkey -100,000

-80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(31)

Tabel Data Permintaan Stick Okey 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015

(32)

GambarDiagram Pencar Penjualan Stick Okey

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan StickOkey dengan

Periode Xt S't S''t at bt Ft+m et et^2 [PE]

1 16.712 16.712 16.712

2 16.008 16.430,400 16.599,360 16.261,440 -112,640

3 17.418 16.825,440 16.689,792 16.961,088 90,432 16.148,800 1.269,200 1.610.868,640 7,286715

4 16.486 16.689,664 16.689,741 16.689,587 -0,051 17.051,520 -565,520 319.812,870 3,430305

5 17.085 16.847,798 16.752,964 16.942,632 63,223 16.689,536 395,464 156.391,775 2,314685

6 16.088 16.543,879 16.669,330 16.418,428 -83,634 17.005,855 -917,855 842.457,801 5,705215

7 13.289 15.241,927 16.098,369 14.385,485 -570,961 16.334,794 -3.045,794 9.276.861,090 22,91966

8 14.497 14.943,956 15.636,604 14.251,308 -461,765 13.814,524 682,476 465.773,491 4,707705

9 12.218 13.853,574 14.923,392 12.783,756 -713,212 13.789,543 -1.571,543 2.469.747,401 12,86252

10 12.562 13.336,944 14.288,813 12.385,075 -634,579 12.070,544 491,456 241.529,000 3,912243

11 12.724 13.091,766 13.809,994 12.373,538 -478,819 11.750,496 973,504 947.710,038 7,650927

12 13.783 13.368,260 13.633,300 13.103,220 -176,693 11.894,719 1.888,281 3.565.605,135 13,70007

13 16.038 14.436,156 13.954,442 14.917,870 321,143 12.926,527 3.111,473 9.681.264,230 19,40063

14 14.930 14.633,694 14.226,143 15.041,245 271,701 15.239,013 -309,013 95.489,034 2,069745

15 14.786 14.694,616 14.413,532 14.975,700 187,389 15.312,946 -526,946 277.672,087 3,563817

16 15.390 14.972,770 14.637,227 15.308,313 223,695 15.163,089 226,911 51.488,602 1,474405

17 12.339 13.919,262 14.350,041 13.488,483 -287,186 15.532,008 -3.193,008 10.195.300,088 25,87736 12.000

13.000 14.000 15.000 16.000 17.000 18.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Stick Okey

(33)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan StickOkey dengan

18 12.399 13.311,157 13.934,487 12.687,827 -415,553 13.201,297 -802,297 643.680,476

19 12.599 13.026,294 13.571,210 12.481,378 -363,277 12.272,274 326,726 106.749,879

20 12.593 12.852,976 13.283,916 12.422,036 -287,293 12.118,101 474,899 225.529,060

21 12.514 12.717,386 13.057,304 12.377,468 -226,612 12.134,743 379,257 143.835,872

22 12.600 12.670,432 12.902,555 12.438,309 -154,749 12.150,856 449,144 201.730,333

23 12.634 12.655,859 12.803,877 12.507,841 -98,679 12.283,560 350,440 122.808,194

24 12.706 12.675,915 12.752,692 12.599,138 -51,185 12.409,162 296,838 88.112,798

25 16.038 14.020,749 13.259,915 14.781,583 507,223 12.547,953 3.490,047 12.180.428,062

26 14.930 14.384,449 13.709,729 15.059,169 449,813 15.288,806 -358,806 128.741,746

27 14.786 14.545,069 14.043,865 15.046,273 334,136 15.508,982 -722,982 522.702,972

28 15.390 14.883,041 14.379,535 15.386,547 335,671 15.380,409 9,591 91,987

29 18.328 16.261,025 15.132,131 17.389,919 752,596 15.722,218 2.605,782 6.790.099,832

30 18.200 17.036,615 15.893,925 18.179,305 761,793 18.142,515 57,485 3.304,525

2.045.192,901 MSE

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Okey dengan

1 16.712 15.876,4 0

(34)

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Stick Okey dengan

17 12.339 12.492,433 -243,713 15.407,660 -153,433 23.541,685 18 12.399 12.391,486 -229,436 12.248,720 7,514 56,460 19 12.599 12.577,153 -187,926 12.162,050 21,847 477,291 20 12.593 12.582,811 -168,568 12.389,227 10,189 103,816 21 12.514 12.509,012 -159,091 12.414,243 4,988 24,880 22 12.600 12.587,496 -135,334 12.349,921 12,504 156,350 23 12.634 12.624,908 -118,059 12.452,162 9,092 82,664 24 12.706 12.696,042 -99,140 12.506,849 9,958 99,162 25 16.038 15.865,945 227,764 12.596,902 172,055 29.602,923 26 14.930 14.988,185 117,212 16.093,709 -58,185 3.385,494 27 14.786 14.801,970 86,869 15.105,397 -15,970 255,041 28 15.390 15.364,942 134,479 14.888,839 25,058 627,903 29 18.328 18.186,571 403,194 15.499,421 141,429 20.002,162 30 18.200 18.219,488 366,166 18.589,765 -19,488 379,782

4.998,171 MSE

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickOkey

1 16.712

(35)

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan StickOkey (Lanjutan)

19 12.599 12.162,050 21,847 14,333 20 12.593 12.389,227 10,189 11,658 21 12.514 12.414,243 4,988 5,201 22 12.600 12.349,921 12,504 7,516 23 12.634 12.452,162 9,092 3,412 24 12.706 12.506,849 9,958 0,866 25 16.038 12.596,902 172,055 162,097 26 14.930 16.093,709 -58,185 230,240 27 14.786 15.105,397 -15,970 42,215 28 15.390 14.888,839 25,058 41,028 29 18.328 15.499,421 141,429 116,371 30 18.200 18.589,765 -19,488 160,917

Jumlah 2.444,708

GambarMoving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk StickOkey

8. Peramalan Produk NuggetOkey

Tabel Data Permintaan Nugget Okey 23 Juni 2014 – 18 Januari 2015

-300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0,000 100,000 200,000 300,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(36)

(37)

Gambar Diagram Pencar Penjualan Nugget Okey

Tabel Perhitungan Parameter dan Error Peramalan Nugget Okey dengan

1 3.560 3.560 3.560

2 3.520 3.552,000 3.558,400 3.545,600 -1,600

3 3.123 3.466,200 3.539,960 3.392,440 -18,440 3.544,000 -421,000 177.241,000

4 2.995 3.371,960 3.506,360 3.237,560 -33,600 3.374,000 -379,000 143.641,000

5 2.873 3.272,168 3.459,522 3.084,814 -46,839 3.203,960 -330,960 109.534,522

6 2.793 3.176,334 3.402,884 2.949,784 -56,638 3.037,975 -244,975 60.012,751

7 2.773 3.095,667 3.341,441 2.849,893 -61,444 2.893,146 -120,146 14.435,061

8 3.053 3.087,134 3.290,580 2.883,688 -50,862 2.788,449 264,551 69.987,232

9 3.616 3.192,907 3.271,045 3.114,769 -19,535 2.832,826 783,174 613.361,514

10 3.328 3.219,926 3.260,821 3.179,031 -10,224 3.095,234 232,766 54.180,011

11 3.031 3.182,141 3.245,085 3.119,197 -15,736 3.168,807 -137,807 18.990,769

12 2.956 3.136,913 3.223,451 3.050,375 -21,635 3.103,461 -147,461 21.744,747

13 3.601 3.229,730 3.224,707 3.234,753 1,256 3.028,740 572,260 327.481,508

14 3.046 3.192,984 3.218,362 3.167,606 -6,345 3.236,009 -190,009 36.103,420

15 3.075 3.169,387 3.208,567 3.130,207 -9,795 3.161,261 -86,261 7.440,960

16 3.216 3.178,710 3.202,596 3.154,824 -5,971 3.120,412 95,588 9.137,066

17 3.136 3.170,168 3.196,110 3.144,226 -6,486 3.148,853 -12,853 165,200

18 3.038 3.143,734 3.185,635 3.101,833 -10,475 3.137,740 -99,740 9.948,068

19 3.598 3.234,587 3.195,425 3.273,749 9,790 3.091,358 506,642 256.686,116 2.500

2.700 2.900 3.100 3.300 3.500 3.700 3.900

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Penjualan Nugget Okey

(38)

20 3.556 3.298,870 3.216,114 3.381,626 20,689 3.283,539 272,461 74.234,997

21 3.123 3.263,696 3.225,630 3.301,762 9,516 3.402,315 -279,315 78.016,869

22 3.523 3.315,557 3.243,615 3.387,499 17,986 3.311,278 211,722 44.826,205

23 3.641 3.380,646 3.271,021 3.490,271 27,406 3.405,485 235,515 55.467,315

24 3.003 3.305,117 3.277,840 3.332,394 6,819 3.517,677 -514,677 264.892,414

25 3.601 3.364,294 3.295,131 3.433,457 17,291 3.339,213 261,787 68.532,433

26 3.046 3.300,635 3.296,232 3.305,038 1,101 3.450,748 -404,748 163.820,944

27 3.075 3.255,508 3.288,087 3.222,929 -8,145 3.306,139 -231,139 53.425,237

28 3.216 3.247,606 3.279,991 3.215,221 -8,096 3.214,784 1,216 1,479

29 3.969 3.391,885 3.302,370 3.481,400 22,379 3.207,125 761,875 580.453,516

30 3.799 3.473,308 3.336,558 3.610,058 34,188 3.503,779 295,221 87.155,439

113.363,926 MSE

1 3.560 3.382,0 0

(39)

20 3.556 3.558,640 34,285 3.608,798 -2,640 6,970 21 3.123 3.146,496 -10,358 3.592,925 -23,496 552,062 22 3.523 3.503,657 26,394 3.136,138 19,343 374,152 23 3.641 3.635,453 36,934 3.530,051 5,547 30,769 24 3.003 3.036,469 -26,658 3.672,387 -33,469 1.120,174 25 3.601 3.571,441 29,505 3.009,811 29,559 873,734 26 3.046 3.073,747 -23,215 3.600,946 -27,747 769,896 27 3.075 3.073,777 -20,891 3.050,532 1,223 1,496 28 3.216 3.207,844 -5,395 3.052,886 8,156 66,520 29 3.969 3.930,672 67,427 3.202,449 38,328 1.469,036 30 3.799 3.808,955 48,513 3.998,099 -9,955 99,102

(40)

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan NuggetOkey

1 3.560

2 3.520 3.382,000 6,900 0,000 3 3.123 3.526,210 -20,161 27,061 4 2.995 3.117,966 -6,148 14,013 5 2.873 2.964,271 -4,564 1,584 6 2.793 2.832,016 -1,951 2,613 7 2.773 2.745,696 1,365 3,316 8 3.053 2.724,974 16,401 15,036 9 3.616 3.021,100 29,745 13,344 10 3.328 3.627,272 -14,964 44,709 11 3.031 3.355,550 -16,228 1,264 12 2.956 3.028,982 -3,649 12,579 13 3.601 2.934,470 33,326 36,975 14 3.046 3.605,815 -27,991 61,317 15 3.075 3.058,950 0,802 28,793 16 3.216 3.060,682 7,766 6,964 17 3.136 3.209,473 -3,674 11,440 18 3.038 3.133,933 -4,797 1,123 19 3.598 3.027,942 28,503 33,300 20 3.556 3.608,798 -2,640 31,143

Tabel Verifikasi Peramalan NuggetOkey (Lanjutan)

21 3.123 3.592,925 -23,496 20,856 22 3.523 3.136,138 19,343 42,839 23 3.641 3.530,051 5,547 13,796 24 3.003 3.672,387 -33,469 39,016 25 3.601 3.009,811 29,559 63,028 26 3.046 3.600,946 -27,747 57,306 27 3.075 3.050,532 1,223 28,970 28 3.216 3.052,886 8,156 6,933 29 3.969 3.202,449 38,328 30,172 30 3.799 3.998,099 -9,955 48,283

(41)

Gambar Moving Range Chart Peramalan Permintaan Produk Nugget Okey -80,000

-60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Moving Range Chart

E

UCL

1/3UCL

2/3UCL

LCL

1/3LCL

(42)

Lampiran 2 Algoritma Genetik Generasi II dan III

1. Generasi Kedua

Tabel Fitness Relatif dan Fitness Kumulatif Kromosom Generasi II

Kromosom Fitness Relatif (Pk)

Fitness Kumulatif (Qk)

I1 0,012372 0,012372

I2 0,012624 0,024996

I3 0,012502 0,037498

I4 0,012472 0,04997

I5 0,012542 0,062513

I6 0,012353 0,074865

I7 0,012483 0,087349

I8 0,012557 0,099905

I9 0,012376 0,112281

I10 0,012459 0,12474

I11 0,012459 0,137199 I12 0,012658 0,149857 I13 0,012383 0,162239 I14 0,012658 0,174898

I15 0,012373 0,18727

I16 0,012513 0,199783 I17 0,012429 0,212212 I18 0,012634 0,224846 I19 0,012657 0,237503 I20 0,012385 0,249888 I21 0,012557 0,262445 I22 0,012513 0,274958

I23 0,012662 0,28762

I24 0,012602 0,300222

I25 0,012658 0,31288

I26 0,012376 0,325256

I27 0,01251 0,337766

I28 0,012383 0,35015

(43)

(Lanjutan)

Kromosom Fitness Relatif (Pk)

Fitness Kumulatif (Qk)

I31 0,012362 0,387219 I32 0,012376 0,399595

I33 0,012385 0,41198

I34 0,012603 0,424583 I35 0,012522 0,437105

I36 0,012465 0,44957

I37 0,012664 0,462234

I38 0,01238 0,474613

I39 0,012372 0,486985

I40 0,01235 0,499336

I41 0,012497 0,511832 I42 0,012382 0,524214 I43 0,012375 0,536589 I44 0,012663 0,549252 I45 0,012654 0,561906 I46 0,012662 0,574568 I47 0,012412 0,586979 I48 0,012508 0,599487 I49 0,012372 0,611859

I50 0,0126 0,624459

I51 0,012493 0,636952 I52 0,012579 0,649531

I53 0,012469 0,662

I54 0,012602 0,674602 I55 0,012238 0,686841 I56 0,012385 0,699226 I57 0,012662 0,711887 I58 0,012641 0,724528 I59 0,012654 0,737182 I60 0,012362 0,749544 I61 0,012664 0,762208

I62 0,012662 0,77487

(44)

Sumber : Pengolahan Data

Tabel Bilangan Acak untuk Seleksi

(45)

Tabel Bilangan Acak untuk Seleksi (Lanjutan) Sumber : Pengolahan Data

Tabel Kromosom Baru Hasil Seleksi

(46)

Tabel Kromosom Baru Hasil Seleksi (Lanjutan)

Kromosom Urutan Makespan (Jam)

Nilai

Fitness Asal

I23' ICDEFGABH 174,31 0,005737 I63

I24' ADFHIBCEG 176,43 0,005668 I3

I25' EBCDFGIAH 178,23 0,005611 I80

I26' HBDFACEGI 174,21 0,005740 I46

I27' DCBAHIGEF 176,86 0,005654 I4

I28' GCDEFBHIA 178,24 0,005610 I43

I29' FCDEGIBAH 178,28 0,005609 I1

I30' GEDHIABFC 178,17 0,005612 I38

I31' BCDEFGHIA 178,09 0,005615 I56

I32' HBDFACEGI 174,21 0,005740 I46

I33' HFGCIABDE 178,56 0,005600 I6

I34' DECHIABFG 177,32 0,005640 I71

I35' ABFGHICDE 175,35 0,005703 I52

I36' ABCDEFGHI 175,66 0,005693 I21

I37' HBDFACEGI 174,21 0,005740 I46

I38' BCEDFGHIA 178,09 0,005615 I20

I39' FCDEBGHIA 178,09 0,005615 I33

I40' DGCHIABFE 178,60 0,005599 I40

I41' DECHIABFG 177,32 0,005640 I71

I42' HGECIABDF 174,26 0,005739 I25

I43' HFGCIABDE 178,56 0,005600 I6

I44' IBCDEFHGA 174,17 0,005741 I61

I45' ABCEFHIDG 175,02 0,005713 I54

I46' CDHGIAEBF 175,14 0,005710 I70

I47' ECGFHBADI 175,86 0,005686 I5

I48' GCDEAHIBF 177,04 0,005649 I10

I49' DGCHIABFE 178,60 0,005599 I40

I50' ICDEFGABH 174,31 0,005737 I63

I51' FCDEGIBAH 178,28 0,005609 I1

I52' EFGHIABCD 177,46 0,005635 I17

I53' CDEFGHIAB 178,27 0,005609 I15

I54' FAEHICDBG 176,69 0,005659 I7

I55' ICDEFGABH 174,31 0,005737 I63

(47)

Tabel Kromosom Baru Hasil Seleksi (Lanjutan)

Kromosom Urutan Makespan (Jam)

Tabel Bilangan Acak untuk Crossover

(48)

Tabel Bilangan Acak untuk Crossover(Lanjutan)

Tabel Kromosom-kromosom yang Mengalami Crossover

Kromosom Urutan Makespan Nilai

Fitness

(49)

Tabel Kromosom-kromosom yang Mengalami Crossover(Lanjutan)

Kromosom Urutan Makespan Nilai

Fitness

I56' ADFHIBCEG 176,42899 0,005668 I61' CDEGHIABF 176,55706 0,0056639 I63' CDEGHIABF 176,55706 0,0056639 I66' DAFGHBCEI 177,7148 0,005627 I72' HCDFGIEBA 174,17548 0,0057413 I74' EBCAFGHDI 174,49267 0,0057309 I76' DAFGHBCEI 177,7148 0,005627 I77' GCDEFBHIA 178,24056 0,0056104 I78' GCDEFBHIA 178,24056 0,0056104 I80' FCDEGIBAH 178,28124 0,0056091 Sumber : Pengolahan Data

TabelKromosom Hasil Crossover Generasi I

Kromosom Urutan Job Makespan

(50)

TabelKromosom Hasil Crossover Generasi I (Lanjutan)

Kromosom Urutan Job Makespan

77" EDFGHBCIA 179,7557 78" FCDEGIBHA 178,1446 80" GCDEFBHAI 178,2708

Tabel Bilangan Acak untuk Mutasi Generasi II

Kromosom Bit

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1 0,3489804 0,3349105 0,4090626 0,721263 0,3887649 0,292791 0,8265369 0,6825154 0,7318659

2 0,4038072 0,9109845 0,1070627 0,2372506 0,291781 0,3376631 0,5793728 0,9580807 0,6881951

3 0,8951374 0,7794908 0,7295901 0,1008469 0,43113 0,7228737 0,9915066 0,5279352 0,4534832

4 0,3800658 0,9119827 0,8205329 0,9075998 0,9757915 0,5522783 0,2538503 0,4505406 0,6392396

5 0,4929147 0,0967644 0,6350747 0,9516554 0,3317455 0,6471617 0,2958793 0,4390556 0,4397942

6 0,9846265 0,5338383 0,3009117 0,8763801 0,8046132 0,0040713 0,7463119 0,843513 0,2463393

7 0,6373248 0,0926273 0,5854579 0,2893389 0,5194095 0,9930795 0,4825807 0,1828726 0,644362

8 0,0411623 0,7744814 0,2797227 0,4775238 0,1848756 0,6977823 0,2327943 0,5805442 0,3177444

9 0,88002 0,6504516 0,9395724 0,7792793 0,1032251 0,1037008 0,5829742 0,5742057 0,3078693

10 0,3381114 0,214139 0,0840559 0,7331946 0,9643412 0,2198634 0,6862474 0,3464721 0,0744878

11 0,8178922 0,3393165 0,9389152 0,5694514 0,6470331 0,1007409 0,4761264 0,9912883 0,8419429

12 0,5167741 0,7955479 0,3871068 0,0853083 0,7550695 0,3111448 0,7270758 0,7120221 0,6648846

13 0,860585 0,7791395 0,8909705 0,2055307 0,3810654 0,9189661 0,7708452 0,4590919 0,5768738

14 0,4079687 0,649276 0,2574578 0,5842104 0,5475214 0,3023857 0,7821552 0,3923068 0,4294899

15 0,9283757 0,2216307 0,3537122 0,9463756 0,7077136 0,9501236 0,2356508 0,0360555 0,1715547

16 0,2113827 0,7408235 0,3776684 0,3498156 0,408093 0,4059233 0,7602005 0,645096 0,6717855

17 0,0113281 0,502727 0,4655151 0,3709057 0,1020691 0,3436559 0,9476444 0,6857234 0,5768534

18 0,9109041 0,4952476 0,650953 0,1997756 0,2649737 0,2802107 0,6659611 0,1327055 0,8754925

19 0,7806954 0,4752051 0,4990811 0,3282983 0,3781204 0,3293197 0,7429025 0,7588272 0,5123108

20 0,9475816 0,6093493 0,3294041 0,9817711 0,5221438 0,9285872 0,3724959 0,3768775 0,8761845

21 0,0879461 0,0765055 0,5637566 0,8373205 0,5464543 0,6049927 0,4879983 0,3245775 0,9805709

22 0,5124743 0,1080967 0,4341038 0,9005161 0,348405 0,4583854 0,6514273 0,9757492 0,9167864

23 0,3895119 0,1724541 0,2164033 0,7836643 0,6952491 0,3381971 0,4174859 0,0282267 0,0562716

24 0,4809113 0,9409249 0,1954089 0,5440514 0,6415788 0,3347345 0,409405 0,5179081 0,5048799

25 0,9645035 0,3718507 0,3483838 0,4750911 0,1528541 0,0006974 0,8564362 0,5158763 0,8082853