ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Bursa Asia menguat di hari Jumat, setelah naiknya harga minyak membantu mendorong Wall Street ke rekor tertinggi, sementara bursa Cina menguat oleh harapan tambahan stimulus. Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,2% dan catat kenaikan mingguan 2%.

Saham Cina melanjutkan penguatannya setelah fixed asset investment, retail sales dan industrial output kesemuanya menguat namun masih di bawah ekspektasi. Indeks CSI300 naik 1,9% ke 3294,23 yang merupakan level penutupan tertinggi sejak awal Januari sedangkan Shanghai Composite Index naik 1,6% ke 3050,67. Dalam sepekan, CSI300 naik 2,8% dan SSEC naik 2,5%. Indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 1,1%

menyusul melemahnya yen dan catat kenaikan mingguan 4,1%, sementara saham Hong Kong naik 0,8% ke level tertinggi 9 bulan dan catat kenaikan mingguan 2,8%. Adapaun saham Australia berakhir menguat 0,4%.

 Eropa: Indeks saham Eropa terkonsolidasi pasca tembus level tertinggi 7 pekan yang baru pada hari Jumat, dengan penurunan pada saham pertambangan mengimbangi kenaikan pada sejumlah perusahaan seperti A.P. Moller-Maersk berkat update laporan keuangannya. Sekitar 88% dari perusahaan dalam STOXX 600 telah memberikan laporan keuangannya, dimana 61% dirilis sama atau lebih baik dari perkiraan.

Indeks STOXX Europe 600 turun 0,2% setelah menembus level tertinggi 7 pekan di sesi sebelumnya, mengganti seluruh kerugian pasca Brexit. Indeks catat kenaikan mingguan 1,4% dan membukukan kinerja mingguan terbaiknya sejak medio Juli. Sedangkan bursa Inggris capai level tertinggi 14 bulan, meskipun akhirnya ditutup datar, ditengah anjloknya saham pertambangan.

 AS & Global Markets: Rilis data ekonomi AS yang kurang memuaskan telah menekan dolar dan juga yield Treasury pada hari Jumat dan menekan harga saham, namun kerugian Wall Street mampu dibatasi dan berlanjut menguat berkat naiknya harga minyak dan Nasdaq naik tipis dekat rekor tertinggi untuk kedua kalinya secara berturut-turut. Short covering mampu membantu dorong reli minyak. Penjualan ritel AS diluar dugaan datar di bulan Juli sementara data lainnya menunjukkan PPI catat penurunan tertajamnya dalam hampir 1 tahun di bulan Juli. Menurunnya belanja konsumen dan inflasi yang rendah di AS mengisyaratkan The Fed belum akan menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Dolar terkoreksi 0,1% terhadap sejumlah rivalnya.

 Weekahead: FOMC minutes dari sidang The Fed 26-27 Juli 2016 akan dicermati investor di pekan ini, yang diharapkan akan memberikan titik terang mengenai seberapa besar peluang kenaikan suku bunga di bulan September dan Desember mendatang. Namun dengan kondisi bank sentral lainnya yang cenderung melonggarkan kebijakan moneternya, seperti ECB, BOJ dan BoE, maka hal ini nampaknya akan membuat The Fed lebih berhati-hati dalam mengambil keputusan untuk menaikkan suku bunganya.

Data inflasi dan tenaga kerja Inggris akan dicermati untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan yang dihadapi Inggris pasca memutuskan Brexit.

Sedangkan dari Jepang akan dirilis data PDB-Q2 yang nampaknya masih akan menunjukkan pertumbuhan tahunan yang lemah, hanya 0,7%, kurang dari setengah dari pertumbuhan PDB-Q1 yang mencapai 1,9%.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

257.88 (12/Aug/16)

22816.75 (12/Aug/16)

18638.34 (11/Aug/16)

2188.45 (11/Aug/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 12 Agustus 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 18576.47  37.05/ 0.20% .N225 16919.92  184.80/1.10%

/.SPX 2184.05  1.74 / 0.08% .KS200 256.17  0.01/0.0%

/.IXIC 5232.895  4.496 / 0.09% .HSI 22766.91  186.36/0.83%

JPY= 101.29  0.66 / 0.65% /.SSEC 3051.01910  48.38150/1.61%

KRW= 1102.19  5.70 / 0.52% /CLc1 (Oil) 44.69  1.20 / 2.76%

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RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

MON/08-Aug 06.50 JP Bank Lending Y/Y Jul 2.1 N/A % 2.0

06.50 JP Current Account NSA Jun 974.4 1056.7 B 1809.1

09.00 CN Exports YY Jul -4.4 -3.0 % -4.8

09.00 CN Imports YY* Jul -12.5 -7.0 % -8.4

09.00 CN Trade Balance USD* Jul 52.308 47.60 % 48.11

21:00 US Employment Trends* Jul 128.28 N/A IND 128.1 127.89

N/A JP Economy Watchers Poll Jul 45.1 N/A IND 41.2

TUE/09-Aug 08:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Jul 8 N/A IND 12

08:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Jul 4 N/A IND 6

08:30 CN PPI YY* Jul -1.7 -2.0 % -2.6

08:30 CN CPI YY* Jul 1.8 1.8 % 1.9

08:30 CN CPI MM* Jul 0.2 0.1 % -0.1

17:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Jul 94.6 N/A IND 94.50

19:30 US Labor Costs Prelim Q2 2.0 1.8 % 4.5 -0.2

19:30 US Productivity Prelim Q2 -0.5 0.4 % -0.6

21:00 US Wholesale Inventories MM Jun 0.3 0.0 % 0.0

21:00 US Wholesale Sales MM Jun 1.9 0.4 % 0.5 0.7

WED/10-Aug 06:00 KR Unemployment Rate* Jul 3.6 N/A % 3.6

06:50 JP Corp Goods Price MM* Jul 0 -0.1 % -0.1

06:50 JP Corp Goods Price YY* Jul -3.9 -4.0 % -4.2

06:50 JP Machinery Orders MM* Jun 8.3 3.1 % -1.4

06:50 JP Machinery Orders YY* Jun -0.9 -4.2 % -11.7

07:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Aug 2.0 N/A % -3.0

10:00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Jun 7.3 N/A % 7.1

21:00 US JOLTS Job Openings* Jun 5.624 5.574 M 5.500 5.514

21.30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 1.055 -1.025 M 1.413

01.00 US Federal Budget Jul -113.0 -113.0 B 6.0

THU/11-Aug 19:30 US Import Prices MM Jul 0.1 -0.3 % 0.2 0.6

19:30 US Export Prices MM Jul 0.2 0.0 % 0.8

19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 266 265 K 269 267

19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e 262.75 N/A K 260.25 259.75

19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.155 2.140 M 2.138 2.141

N/A KR Bank of Korea Base Rate Aug 1.25 1.25 % 1.25

FRI/12-Aug 04:00 KR Export Price Growth YY* Jul -7.5 N/A % -4.9

04:00 KR Import Price Growth YY* Jul -7.1 N/A % -4.9

09.00 CN Urban Investment (ytd) Y/Y Jul 8.1 8.8 % 9.0

09.00 CN Industrial Output Y/Y* Jul 6.0 6.1 % 6.2

09.00 CN Retail Sales Y/Y* Jul 10.2 10.5 % 10.6

15.00 CN M2 Money Supply YY* Jul 10.2 11.2 % 11.8

15.00 CN New Yuan Loans* Jul 463.6 800.0 B 1380.0

15.00 CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Jul 12.9 13.8 % 14.3

15.30 CN FDI (YTD)* Jul 4.3 N/A % 5.10

15:30 HK GDP QQ* Q2 1.6 N/A % -0.4

15:30 HK GDP YY* Q2 1.7 N/A % 0.8

19:30 US PPI Final Demand YY Jul -0.2 0.2 % 0.3

19:30 US PPI Final Demand MM Jul -0.4 0.1 % 0.5

19:30 US PPI exFood/Energy YY Jul 0.7 1.2 % 1.3

19:30 US PPI exFood/Energy MM Jul -0.3 0.2 % 0.4

19:30 US Retail Sales MM Jul 0.0 0.4 % 0.6 0.8

19:30 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Jul -0.3 0.2 % 0.7 0.9

21:00 US Business Inventories MM Jun 0.2 0.1 % 0.2

21:00 US U Mich Sentiment Prelim Aug 90.4 91.5 IND 90

21:00 US U Mich Conditions Prelim Aug 106.1 109.0 IND 109.0

21:00 US U Mich Expectations Prelim Aug 80.3 78.1 IND 77.8

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DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

15~16 Aug 6:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Jul N/A % 3.1

MON/15-Aug 6:50 JP GDP QQ Q2 0.2 % 0.5

6:50 JP GDP QQ Annualised Q2 0.7 % 1.9

11:30 JP Industrial Output Rev* Jun N/A % 1.9

11:30 JP Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Jun N/A % -2.4

19:30 US NY Fed Manufacturing Aug 2.0 IND 0.55

21:00 US NAHB Housing Market Indx Aug 60 IND 59

: KR Export Growth Revised Jul N/A % -10.2

: KR Import Growth Revised Jul N/A % -14

: KR Trade Balance Revised Jul N/A B 7.8

TUE/16-Aug 3:00 US Net L-T Flows,Exswaps Jun N/A B 41.1

3:00 US Foreign Buying, T-Bonds Jun N/A B -18.3

3:00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Jun N/A B -11

3:00 US Net L-T Flows,Incl.Swaps Jun N/A B 25.8

6:30 AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (AUG 14) 8:30 AU RBA Aug. Meeting Minutes

19:30 US CPI MM, SA Jul 0.0 % 0.2

19:30 US CPI YY, NSA Jul 0.9 % 1

19:30 US Core CPI MM, SA Jul 0.2 % 0.2

19:30 US Core CPI YY, NSA Jul 2.3 % 2.3

19:30 US CPI Index, NSA Jul 240.8 IND 241.04

19:30 US Core CPI Index, SA Jul N/A IND 247.5

19:30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Jul N/A % -0.1

19:30 US Building Permits: Number Jul 1.16 M 1.153

19:30 US Build Permits: Change MM Jul 0.6 % 1.5

19:30 US Housing Starts Number MM Jul 1.18 M 1.189

19:30 US House Starts MM: Change Jul -0.8 % 4.8

20:15 US Industrial Output MM Jul 0.2 % 0.6

20:15 US Capacity Utilization MM Jul 75.6 % 75.4

20:15 US Manuf Output MM Jul 0.2 % 0.4

22:30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Jul N/A % 0.2

23:30 US Fed's Lockhart Speaks to Rotary Club of Knoxville

WED/17-Aug 8:30 AU Wage Price Index QQ* Q2 0.5 % 0.4

8:30 AU Wage Price Index YY* Q2 2.0 % 2.1

21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories w/e 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory w/e 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories w/e 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory w/e THU/18-Aug 0:00 US Fed's Bullard Speaks in St. Louis

1:00 US U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July 26-27 FOMC Meeting

6:50 JP Exports YY* Jul -14 % -7.4

6:50 JP Imports YY* Jul -20.6 % -18.8

6:50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen* Jul 283.7 B 692.8

8:30 CN China House Prices YY Jul N/A % 7.3

8:30 AU Employment* Jul 11 K 7.9

8:30 AU Full Time Employment* Jul N/A K 38.4

8:30 AU Participation Rate* Jul 64.9 % 64.9

8:30 AU Unemployment Rate* Jul 5.8 % 5.8

15:30 HK Unemployment Rate Jul N/A % 3.4

19:30 US Philly Fed Business Indx Aug 1.5 IND -2.9

19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e N/A K 266

19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A K 262.75

19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e N/A M 2.155

21:00 US Leading Index Chg MM* Jul 0.2 % 0.3

FRI/19-Aug 3:00 US Fed's Williams Speaks in Anchorage

4:00 KR PPI Growth YY* Jul N/A % -2.7

4:00 KR PPI Growth* Jul N/A % 0.2

6:00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Aug N/A IND 3

SAT/20-Aug 0:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count w/e n

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SSIamU6 (Nikkei Sep Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Sep. 2016

 Reversal terjadi setelah membentuk Double Top di 16930

 Target downtick di sekitar 16650 – 16550

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

12 Aug SSIpmU6 16910 16920 16775 145 16790 ---  120 0.71 15796

12 Aug SSIamU6 16820 16930 16780 150 16910 16910  165 0.99 45303

11 Aug SSIpmU6 16710 16885 16670 215 16875 ---  130 0.78 4868

11 Aug SSIamU6 16610 16755 16585 170 16745 16745 UNCH UNCH 5858

10 Aug SSIpmU6 16765 16805 16660 145 16670 ---  75 0.45 12345

10 Aug SSIamU6 16645 16810 16630 180 16745 16745  40 0.24 58475

09 Aug SSIpmU6 16720 16745 16660 85 16660 ---  45 0.27 14076

09 Aug SSIamU6 16605 16760 16600 160 16705 16705  100 0.60 36125

08 Aug SSIpmU6 16605 16715 16600 115 16645 ---  40 0.24 11900

08 Aug SSIamU6 16485 16630 16475 155 16605 16605  370 2.28 44427

WEEKLY AUGUST JULY 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

16930 16475 16930 15885 16930 15105 18945 14770

(12/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Aug) (04/Aug) (21/July) (08/July) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

17580 High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)

17260 High 31/May/2016 (Peak)

17045 High 02/Jun/2016

16930 Double Top

SUPPORT

16710 Reaction low (1-H chart)

16475 Pivot line (1-H chart)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 16850

STOP LOSS 16950

TARGET 16700

16590

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KSU6 (Kospi Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Sep. 2016

 Rebound catat level tertinggi tahun ini di 258.20

 Daily trend bullish, namun waspadai adanya pola Shooting Star yang berpotensi picu reversal

 Short-term support di sekitar 254.45

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

12 Aug 256.70 258.20 256.15 2.05 256.25 256.25  0.20 0.08 112173

11 Aug 255.50 256.15 254.60 1.55 256.05 256.05  0.85 0.33 125363

10 Aug 255.90 256.70 255.20 1.50 255.20 255.20  0.80 0.31 111914

09 Aug 254.60 256.65 254.30 2.35 256.00 256.00  1.80 0.71 115629

08 Aug 253.95 254.70 252.85 1.85 254.20 254.20  1.50 0.59 102826

05 Aug 250.00 252.70 249.90 2.80 252.70 252.70  3.10 1.24 99138

WEEKLY AUGUST JULY 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

258.20 252.85 258.20 248.75 253.80 241.35 258.20 223.10

(12/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Aug) (03/Aug) (27/July) (06/July) (12/Aug) (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

260.50 High 02/Jun/2015

259.70 High 02/Jun/2015

258.20 High 12/Aug/2016

256.85 Reaction high (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

254.60 Low 09/Aug/2016

252.85 Low 08/Aug/2016

249.90 Low 05/Aug/2016

248.75 Low 03/Aug/2016 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 256.60

STOP LOSS 257.35

TARGET 254.80

253.90

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HSIQ6 (Hang Seng Aug Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 August 2016

 Reli catat level tertinggi tahun ini di 22817

 Daily trend bullish, namun RSI sudah overbought (74)

 Short-term support di sekitar 22300

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

12 Aug 22730 22817 22681 136 22758 22757  195 0.86 96504

11 Aug 22401 22687 22322 365 22563 22560  143 0.64 115697

10 Aug 22482 22600 22345 255 22420 22420  9 0.04 96780

09 Aug 22382 22469 22369 100 22429 22429  18 0.08 71603

08 Aug 22305 22479 22197 282 22447 22448  324 1.46 101056

05 Aug 21891 22171 21880 291 22123 22123  311 1.43 95972

04 Aug 21868 21877 21732 145 21812 21812  133 0.61 86464

WEEKLY AUGUST JULY 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

22817 22197 22817 21670 22321 20278 22817 18217

(12/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Aug) (03/Aug) (26/July) (06/July) (12/Aug) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

23347 High 04/Nov/2015 (Reaction high)

23240 High 05/Nov/2015

23055 High 26/Nov/2015 (Reaction high) 22817 High 12/Aug/2016 (Reaction high)

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 22780

STOP LOSS 22850

TARGET 22600

22500