Tinjauan Operasi per Segmen Usaha
3. Price and Market Analysis
During year 2017, Perum BULOG has conducted various supervisory activities in developing supply and demand of national food commodities as well as price and market analysis (Gasar) in supporting the Company’s operational activities, amongst others are as follows:
a. Improved provision of preliminary, accurate data and pricing information This activity includes observation, collection, analysis and provision of data related to company operations.
Information obtained either with primary data is performed by the structural function of Gasar in each region with third party support as well as secondary data from other agencies outside Perum BULOG.
In obtaining pricing and market data and information, Perum BULOG utilizes “On-line Information System” based on Subdivre and Operational Divre (which directly supervise the warehouse) including pricing observation at farmer level, milling level and consumer level, as well as stock observation in milling (sampling).
The types of recordings include prices at the producer, wholesale and retail levels. Prices are recorded in the market of BPS and non-BPS listing records as well as milling partners or non-partners.
Since the first quarter of 2017, Perum BULOG has developed a price recording system by forming a third-party support network who were authorized stakeholders in markets which deems influential in the working area of Divre and Subdivre. The purpose of applying the development of such recording system is to improve the completeness and validity of Primary data owned by Perum BULOG.
In addition to the national market price and market analysis, international market monitoring, especially the ASEAN market, is conducted through searching data and information on the internet. By downloading up-to-date information on the price, production and trade of rice, which is associated with the possible effects on domestic rice.
Pengumpulan data dan informasi secara sekunder dilakukan melalui penyediaan data pendukung eksternal setiap bulan dengan melakukan pembelian referensi data dan informasi serta koordinasi dengan instansi di luar Perum BULOG.
Selain melalui buku dan data-data resmi yang dipublikasikan oleh suatu instansi, pengumpulan data juga dilakukan melalui internet (website resmi beberapa instansi dan kelembagaan dalam dan luar negeri); dan hasil/risalah rapat.
Beberapa instansi yang menjadi sumber data eksternal Perum BULOG antara lain: Badan Pusat Statistik untuk data harga dan indikator ekonomi lainnya; Kementerian Pertanian untuk data luas tanam, panen, produksi dan neraca bahan makanan;
Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geologi untuk data perkiraan curah hujan dan iklim; Kementerian Perdagangan untuk data harga beras nasional dan lainnya; Pasar Induk Cipinang untuk situasi harga dan pasar beras Jakarta yang menjadi indikator perberasan nasional dan pasar Induk Kramatjati untuk perkembangan pasokan serta harga non- beras.
Dalam menyeimbangkan informasi tersebut maka Perum BULOG melakukan beberapa kegiatan monitoring dan evaluasi di lapangan terutama di daerah yang memiliki historis volume produksi yang tinggi dengan melibatkan berbagai kementerian dan lembaga terkait terutama Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Kementerian Pertanian, Kementerian Perdagangan, Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, serta dan dinas-dinas terkait di tingkat provinsi dan kabupaten.
Dalam meningkatkan koordinasi dan memberikan pemahaman yang sama terkait kebutuhan operasional dan cara pandang Perum BULOG maka berbagai kementerian dan lembaga (K/L) dilibatkan dalam berbagai kegiatan analisis harga dan pasar. Pelibatan personel K/L juga untuk memberikan pemahaman yang sama antara Pemerintah Pusat dengan Pemerintah Daerah di lapangan juga terutama memperkuat koordinasi fungsi pemantauan harga dan produksi setempat perusahaan yang ada di daerah dengan dinas dan BPS setempat sekaligus sebagai early warning system dalam kegiatan pengadaan oleh unit kerja Divisi Regional (Divre) dan Sub-Divisi Regional (Subdivre).
Secondary data and information gathering is done through provision of external supporting data every month by purchasing reference of data and information and coordination with agency outside Perum BULOG. In addition to through books and official data published by an agency, data collection is also accomplished via the internet (official website of several agencies and institutions at domestic and overseas); and meeting results/minutes.
Some agencies that become external data sources of Perum BULOG include: Central Bureau of Statistics for price data and other economic indicators; Ministry of Agriculture for data on planting area, harvest, production and food balance;
Meteorology, Climatology and Geology Agency for estimation of rainfall and climate data; Ministry of Commerce for national and other rice price data;
Cipinang Mother Market for Jakarta rice price and market situation as indicator of national rice and Kramatjati Induk market for supply development and non-rice price.
In balancing the information, Perum BULOG conducts several monitoring and evaluation activities in the field, especially in areas that have historically high production volumes involving various related ministries and agencies, especially the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Trade, the Coordinating Ministry for the Economy, as well as and related agencies at the provincial and district levels.
In improving coordination and providing a similar understanding of operational needs and PERUM BULOG’s perspective, various ministries and agencies (K/L) are involved in various price and market analysis activities. The involvement of K/L personnel also to provide the same understanding between the Central Government and Local Government in the field also mainly strengthens the coordination of local price and production monitoring function of the Company in the region with the local service and BPS as well as the early warning system in the procurement activities by the work unit Regional Division (Divre) and Sub-Division Regional (Subdivre).
Pelaksanaan pemantauan lapangan juga sekaligus sebagai upaya pengamatan dan evaluasi terhadap kondisi produksi dan harga komoditas pangan pada tahun 2017 terutama di daerah-daerah produsen sebagai langkah antisipasi kemungkinan harga jatuh. Pengamatan lapangan telah dilaksanakan tidak hanya di daerah produsen utama namun juga daerah penerima pasokan komoditas pangan antara lain: Aceh, Sumatera Barat, Sumatera Selatan, Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, DIY Yogyakarta, Jawa Timur, Kalimantan Tengah, Kalimantan Selatan, Bali, Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Sulawesi Selatan, Sulawesi Tengah, dan Sulawesi Utara.
Dalam menghadapi berbagai penugasan yang diberikan kepada Perum BULOG selama tahun 2017 yang bersifat multi komoditas juga dilakukan pengumpulan data dan informasi komoditi pangan pokok lainnya di tingkat produsen, grosir, maupun eceran sesuai dengan keberagaman komoditas yang disebutkan dalam Peraturan Presiden no.48 tahun 2016. Pengamatan terutama dilakukan di tingkat produsen guna mendapat informasi dasar pengolahan komoditas yang bersangkutan.
Pada tahun 2017 telah dilaksanakan pengamatan untuk mendukung penugasan bawang merah dan kedelai. Pengamatan tersebut dilaksanakan di wilayah pertanian bawang merah, sedangkan untuk komoditas kedelai dilakukan di wilayah pertanian dan produsen tahu-tempe. Adapun output yang dihasilkan berupa analisis dan rekomendasi yang diberikan kepada Divisi teknis berupa karakter dan metode pengelolaan komoditas, rantai pasok eksisting, dan preferensi pasar dari komoditas yang bersangkutan.
Pokok informasi yang didapat oleh unit Divisi Gasar Perum BULOG diolah sebagai bahan penyusunan laporan manajerial harian yang dilaporkan kepada pimpinan dua kali setiap hari sebagai laporan perkembangan pasar komoditas nasional kepada manajemen Perum BULOG.
b. Penguatan Terhadap Akses Data dan Informasi Kepada Pemerintah di Bidang Pangan Pokok Dalam meningkatkan koordinasi dan kapabilitas Perum BULOG dalam mengakses data dan informasi Kementerian dan Lembaga (K/L)maka Divisi Gasar turut berpartisipasi aktif dalam forum lintas K/L antara lain dengan: TPI (Tim Pengendalian Inflasi), Tim Neraca Bahan Makanan (NBM), Kelompok Kerja WTO dan Kerjasama ASEAN, serta Kajian
Implementation of field monitoring is also serves as an observation and evaluation on production conditions and price of food commodity in 2017 especially in producer area as anticipation of possible price fall. Field observations have been undertaken not only in key producer areas but also in food supply areas such as Aceh, West Sumatera, South Sumatera, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Bali, Nusa Tenggara West, East Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi and North Sulawesi.
In facing various assignments given to Perum BULOG during year 2017 which is a multi- commodity also collected data and information of other basic food commodities at the producer, wholesale and retail levels in accordance with the diversity of commodities mentioned in Presidential Regulation No. 48 of 2016. Observation especially at the producer level to obtain basic information on the processing of the commodities concerned.
By 2017 observations have been carried out to support the assignment of shallots and soybeans.
The observations were carried out in onion farming areas, while for soybean commodities were done in agriculture and tofu-tempe producers.
The output produced in the form of analysis and recommendations given to the Technical Division in forms of characters and methods of commodity management, existing supply chains, and market preferences of concerned commodities.
Principal information obtained by the GULA Division of Perum BULOG unit is processed as a material for preparing daily managerial reports which are reported to the managers twice in a day as a report on the development of the national commodity market to the management of Perum BULOG.
b. Strengthening of Data and Information Access to Government in Main Food Sector.
In improving the coordination and capability of Perum BULOG in accessing data and information of the Ministry and Institution (K/L), the Gasar Division participates actively in cross-K/L forums such as:
TPI (Inflation Control Team), Food Material Balance Team (NBM), WTO Working Group and ASEAN Cooperation, and Food Policy Review Office of the
Kebijakan Pangan Kantor Menteri Perekonomian dan kementrian lainnya. Data dan informasi yang didapat dari K/L dapat digunakan untuk bahan Perum BULOG pada kegiatan pertemuan serta rapat dengan pihak ekternal seperti Rapat Koordinasi Terbatas, rapat teknis lainnya dan penyusunan makalah/presentasi dalam kegiatan diskusi, seminar, lokakarya dan lain-lain.
c. Peningkatan Kemampuan Market Intelijen Dalam meningkatkan kemampuan Gasar dalam mendukung perkembangan Perum BULOG maka pada tahun 2017 telah dilaksanakan pengembangan Sistem Informasi Harga dan Pasar (SIGAP) dalam hal perancangan ulang sistem, interface, dan komposisi komoditas yang dicatat.
Tujuannya adalah mendapatkan data dan informasi yang menyeluruh dalam berbagai dimensi (jenis, merk, dan lain-lain) sehingga fungsi market intelijen Divisi Gasar dapat ditingkatkan terutama dalam mendukung kegiatan komersial Perum BULOG.
Guna mendukung pengembangan SIGAP juga telah dilaksanakan sosialisasi penggunaan SIGAP terbaru kepada personel Gasar Divre dan Subdivre Dalam rangka menambah wawasan bagi personel Gasar di kantor pusat, telah dilakukan pembelian buku bertema World Trade Organization (WTO) yang membahas subsidi pangan pemerintah dalam aspek ekonomi dan legal lintas negara serta jurnal multi komoditas Potensi Komoditas Pangan Utama yakni Padi, Jagung, dan kedelai dari The CDMI Consulting Group yang menginformasikan kondisi produksi berbagai komoditas pangan di masa lalu dan proyeksinya.
Beberapa kegiatan dalam bentuk Focus Group Discussion (FGD) juga diselenggarakan dengan tema antara lain pengelolaan komoditas jagung, diskusi penguatan fungsi Gasar, peningkatan kemampuan analisis kualitatif, memacu transformasi BULOG, serta kebijakan pemerintah dan potensi keuntungan komersial untuk komoditas beras, minyak goreng, gula pasir, dan kedelai. Pelaksanaan FGD berfokus pada informasi-informasi yang berkaitan dengan operasional BULOG seperti perkembangan kebijakan Pemerintah, perkembangan situasi produksi pertanian dan lain-lain.
Seluruh pengembangan sistem dan diskusi sebagaimana disebut di atas dilakukan guna
Minister of Economy and other ministries. Data and information obtained from K/L can be used for BULOG materials at meetings and meetings with external parties such as Limited Coordination Meetings, other technical meetings and the preparation of papers/presentations in discussions, seminars, workshops and others.
c. Improved Market Intelligence Capabilities In improving the capabilities of Gasar in supporting the development of Perum BULOG, in 2017, the development of the Pricing and Market Information System (SIGAP) has been implemented in terms of redesigning the system, interfaces, and composition of recorded commodities. The goal is to get comprehensive data and information in various dimensions (types, brands, etc.) so that the Gasar Division’s intelligence market functions can be improved especially in support of commercial activities of Perum BULOG. In order to support the development of SIGAP has also been socialized the use of the latest SIGAP to personnel Gasar Divre and Subdivre.
In order to add insight to Gasar personnel at the headquarters, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been purchasing books that discuss government food subsidies in the economic and legal aspects of cross-border and multi commodity journals Potential of Main Food Commodities ie Paddy, Corn and Soybean from The CDMI Consulting Group which informs the production conditions of various food commodities in the past and its projections.
Some activities in the form of Focus Group Discussion (FGD) are also held with the theme of corn management, discussion of strengthening of Gasar function, improvement of qualitative analysis capability, spurring BULOG transformation, and government policy and commercial profit potential for rice, cooking oil, and soybeans. FGD implementation focuses on information related to BULOG operations such as Government policy development, development of agricultural production situation and others.
The whole system development and discussion as mentioned above is done to improve the capability
mampu memahami lingkungan eksternal perusahaan khususnya untuk mendapatkan informasi terkait perkembangan harga pasar dan sistem pemasarannya yang berguna bagi proses pembuatan dan pelaksanaan strategi pemasaran Perum BULOG.
d. Kerjasama dengan Perguruan Tinggi
Pada tanggal 6 Juni 2017 telah dilaksanakan kerjasama dengan Universitas Gadjah Mada berupa FGD dengan tema Kebijakan Program Rastra dan kesejahteraan petani yang membahas wacana penggantian program Rastra dengan Bantuan Pangan Non Tunai (BPNT) pada semester II tahun 2017 diluar 44 kota yang menjadi daerah percobaan. Dalam FGD ini para panelis berpendapat pengggantian program Rastra dengan program BPNT akan sulit dilakukan dengan segera.
Hambatan terbesar datang dari ketidaksiapan data pendukung, alat pendukung pembayaran, dan sistem distribusi sehingga wacana penggantian Rastra di tahun 2017 ini merupakan hal yang dipaksakan dan dapat menyebabkan kerawanan serta instabilitas harga serta pasokan komoditas pangan.
Para panelis juga berpendapat bahwa Program BPNT merupakan program bantuan sosial yang tidak bersifat menyeluruh seperti Rastra yang menjaga kestabilan harga serta pasokan rantai pasokan komoditas pangan dari hulu hingga hilir.
Dengan program Rastra, petani tidak kuatir atas kelebihan produksi musiman dan kegagalan pasar karena ada kepastian pembelian oleh Perum BULOG dalam rentang kualitas tertentu sesuai Inpres no. 5-2016. Kegiatan tersebut lambat laun dapat mengkoreksi harga pasaran hingga meningkat di atas HPP, tanpa kehadiran Perum BULOG maka Pemerintah akan sulit melindungi petani seperti pada komoditas kedelai, jagung, dan gula. Jika BPNT diberlakukan secara nasional maka perlindungan terhadap petani juga dapat berkurang tidak seperti saat Rastra masih dijalankan di seluruh Indonesia. Salah satu fungsi utama Rastra yang tidak dapat digantikan oleh BPNT adalah kemampuan meredam harga sebagai efek dari volume penyalurannya yang merupakan 10% dari konsumsi bulanan Rumah Tangga Sasaran, hal ini positif untuk meredam inflasi dari sisi pengaruh bahan makanan serta mengurangi peredaran uang di masyarakat dalam bentuk tunai atau elektronik.
external environment of the company especially to get information related to market price development and marketing system useful for the process of making and implementing marketing strategy of Perum BULOG.
d. Cooperation with Universities
On June 6, 2017, cooperation with the University of Gadjah Mada has been conducted with the theme of Rastra Program Policy and farmers’ welfare discussing the discourse of replacement of Rastra program with Non-Cash Food Assistance (BPNT) in the second semester of 2017 outside 44 cities that became experimental areas. In this FGD the panelists thought that replacing the Rastra program with the BPNT program would be difficult to do immediately. The biggest obstacle comes from unpreparedness of supporting data, payment support tools, and distribution systems so that the discourse of Rastra replacement in 2017 is forced and can lead to vulnerability and instability of price and supply of food commodities.
The panelists also argue that the BPNT Program is a non-comprehensive social assistance program such as Rastra that maintains price stability as well as supply of food commodity supply chains from upstream to downstream. With Rastra program, farmers do not worry about the excess of seasonal production and market failure because there is certainty of purchase by Perum BULOG in certain quality range according to Inpres no. 5-2016. These activities can slowly correct the market price to increase above the HPP, without the presence of Perum BULOG then the Government will be difficult to protect farmers such as soybean commodities, corn and sugar. If BPNT is implemented nationally then the protection of farmers can also be reduced unlike when Rastra is still run throughout Indonesia.
One of the main functions of Rastra that can not be replaced by BPNT is the ability to dampen the price as the effect of its distribution volume which is 10%
of monthly consumption of Target Households, it is positive to reduce inflation from the side of the influence of foodstuff and reduce the circulation of money in the community in the form cash or electronic.
Dampak yang mungkin muncul dari pelaksanaan program BPNT bagi Keluarga Penerima Manfaat (KPM) antara lain :
• KPM yang relatif jauh jaraknya (remote area) akan memerlukan tambahan biaya untuk mengakses ke kios/toko pelaksana distribusi BPNT.
• Kemungkinan muncul moral hazard yang antara lain:
- Bantuan pangan tidak hanya untuk belanja pangan tetapi juga untuk barang lain, seperti:
rokok, pulsa HP, dll; perlu ditentukan siapa yang akan mengawasi/mendampingi di tingkat titik penukaran voucher pangan.
- KPM yang meminta tidak hanya Rumah Tangga miskin atau prasejahtera saja tetapi juga Rumah Tangga sejahtera atau bahkan yg mampu, sehingga akan menambah jumlah volume atau nilai paket program yang tentu berdampak pada meningkatnya anggaran untuk BPNT.
Hal yang perlu diperhatikan dari wacana peralihan program Rastra ke program BPNT di tahun 2017 adalah target pengadaan Dalam Negeri (DN) dan stok Perum BULOG yang dalam kondisi cukup banyak (1,8 juta ton per 6 juni 2017) sehingga akan menimbulkan tingginya stok akhir tahun.
Jika kondisi ini tidak dicari jalan keluarnya maka akan melemahkan Perum BULOG. Selain itu imbas lainnya adalah pengadaan DN tahun berikutnya akan turun drastis yang akan berdampak buruk pada usaha perlindungan pendapatan petani padi sehingga program stabilisasi harga akan terganggu.
Salah satu skenario yang dapat dipakai untuk mengatasi hilangnya perlindungan petani dan menumpuknya stok Perum BULOG adalah dengan memindahstatuskan stok Perum BULOG menjadi CBP dan merasionalkan volume salur Rastra.
Skenario ini berdampak pada perlunya tambahan dana APBN sebesar Rp.9 sampai dengan 10 triliun untuk pembelian stok Perum BULOG menjadi CBP.
Penerapan program BPNT akan menyebabkan berkurangnya outlet BULOG yang mendorong penurunan volume pengadaan sehingga menurunkan kemampuan Bulog/Pemerintah untuk intervensi dalam rangka stabilisasi harga di tingkat produsen dan konsumen, terutama pengendalian inflasi. Imbasnya adalah Perum Bulog memerlukan waktu untuk menyesuaikan dengan kondisi yang
Possible impacts of BPNT program implementation for Beneficiary Family (KPM) include:
• Remote KPMs (remote areas) will require additional costs to access the BPNT distribution kiosk / shop.
• Possible moral hazard arises, among others:
- Food aid not only for food expenditure but also for other goods, such as: cigarettes, HP pulses, etc.; it is necessary to determine who will supervise / assist at the point of exchange of food vouchers.
- KPM requesting not only poor households or pre-prosperous but also prosperous or even well-off Households, which will increase the volume or value of program packages that will impact on the increased budget for BPNT.
The thing to note from the discourse of the transition of Rastra program to the BPNT program in 2017 is the procurement targets of Domestic (DN) and the stock of Perum BULOG which is in quite a lot (1.8 million tons per 6 June 2017) so that it will generate high end of year stock. If this condition is not sought way out it will weaken Perum BULOG. In addition, the other impact is the procurement of the next year’s DN will drop dramatically which will adversely affect the income protection of rice farmers so that the price stabilization program will be disrupted.
One scenario that can be used to overcome the loss of peasant protection and stockpiling of Perum BULOG is by transferring the stock of Perum BULOG to CBP and rationalizing the volume of Rastra’s saline. This scenario has an impact on the need for additional state budget funds amounting to IDR 9 to 10 trillion for the purchase of Perum BULOG stock into CBP.
Implementation of the BPNT program will lead to a reduction in BULOG outlets which leads to a decrease in procurement volumes thereby decreasing the ability of Bulog / Government to intervene in order to stabilize prices at producer and consumer levels, especially inflation control. The effect is that Bulog requires time to adapt to the new condition, that is, the need to have a commercial outlet (BULOG