CWWG-16072021-Minutes.pdf

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F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)

Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 20.07.2021

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 16.07.2021.

Summary

 All-India level rainfall during the week, 08 July 2021 to 14 July 2021, has been 07% lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 59% in South Peninsula,

- Lower by 40% in East & North East India, - Lower by 22% in North West India, - Lower by 01% in Central India.

 Cumulative rainfall during Monsoon season, 01 June 2021 to 14 July 2021, has been 5% lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:

- Higher by 11% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 15% in North West India, - Lower by 09% in East & North East India, - Lower by 06% in Central India.

 Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:

- Large excess/ excess in 07 MET sub-divisions constituting 18% of total area, - Normal in 17 MET sub-division constituting 50% of total area,

- Deficient/large deficient in 12 MET sub-divisions constituting 32% of total area

 Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).

- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.

- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 15 July 2021 was 57.63 BCM, which is:

- 93% of last year’s storage on the same day (15 July 2020) of 62.13 BCM.

- 115% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 49.92 BCM.

 During the current Kharif season 2021(as on 16.07.2021), 611.89 lakh ha. area has been sown as compared to the 691.93 Lakh ha during corresponding period of last year.

 Inflation (WPI Food Index) has increased from 8.11% in May 2021 to 6.66% in June 2021.

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- All Commodities: declined from 12.94% to 12.07%.

- Primary Articles: declined from 9.61% to 7.74%

- Food Articles: declined from 4.31% to 3.09%.

- Non-food Articles: increase from 18.37% to 18.86%.

- Pulses: decline from 12.09% to 11.49%.

- Cereals: decline from -2.52% to -2.71%.

- Wheat: increase from -2.54% to -1.45%.

- Paddy: decline from -0.49% to -2.42%.

- Fruits and Vegetables: declined from 4.38% to 2.01%.

- Milk: decline from 2.51% to 1.65%.

 Procurement of Wheat in marketing season RMS 2021-22 is progressing smoothly in procuring states. As on 16.07.2021, over 433.32 LMT has been procured whereas corresponding Wheat procurement during RMS 2020-21 was 387.54 LMT. About 49.16 Lakh farmers have already been benefitted from ongoing RMS procurement.

 As on 16 July 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 583.38 lakh MT as compared to 508.44 lakh MT procured during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20. About 128.13 Lakh farmers have been benefitted from ongoing KMS procurement.

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MONSOON RAINFALL STATUS (June – September) during the week ending 14 July, 2021

1.1 Rainfall

 Rainfall during the week (08 July to 14 July 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 14 met sub-divisions, normal in 07 sub-divisions and deficient/large deficient in 15 sub-divisions.

(Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).

 Cumulative rainfall (01 June 2021 to 14 July 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 07 met sub-divisions, normal in 17 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 12 sub-divisions. (Sub- division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).

Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:

Region of India Week Ending (14.07.2021) Cumulative (01.06.21 to 14.07.2021) (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category (in mm) Deviation

(%) Category

Actual Normal Actual Normal

North-West 38.7 49.1 -21 D 135.1 159.3 -15 N

Central 67.3 68.0 -1 N 287.8 305.4 -6 N

South Peninsula 74.7 46.9 59 E 279.9 252.5 11 N

East & North-East 61.7 102.3 -40 D 500.5 548.8 -9 N

Country as a whole 59.0 63.5 -7 N 273.2 288.9 -5 N

LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.

Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi

Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 June 2021 to 14 July2021

No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall

For the period from 1 June to

13 JULY 2016

12 JULY 2017

11 JULY 2018

17 JULY 2019

15 JULY 2020

14 JULY 2021 Large Excess

Excess Normal Total

- 11 19 30

02 05 24 31

00 07 16 23

00 01 16 17

02 10 17 29

02 05 17 24 Deficient

Large Deficient Scanty

No rain Total

06 - 00 00 06

05 00 - 00 05

12 01 - 00 13

18 01 - 00 19

06 01 - 00 07

12 00 - 00 12

Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00

TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36

All-India % Rainfall Deviation 4% (-) 1% (-) 8% (-) 16% 10% (-) 5%

Source: IMD

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1.2 Weather Forecast

Week 1 (15 to 21 July)

 Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over north Rajasthan, Haryana, northwest Madhya Pradesh and west Uttar Pradesh during 17th to 19th July over Jammu and Kashmiri on 20 July with reduction thereafter.

 Isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over Punjab and east Uttar Pradesh during 17th to 19^th July with reduction thereafter.

 Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over northeast India and sub-Himalayan west Bengal and Sikkim till 16th July with increase in rainfall during 17th -19th July.

Isolated very heavy rainfall likely over this region during 17-19 July with reduction thereafter.

 Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall in almost all dates during the week very likely over Konkan & Goa, Kerala and coastal and south interior Karnataka with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the region during the same period. Isolated extremely heavy falls also very likely over Konkan & Goa on 15^th July.

 Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely with isolated heavy rains likely over rest parts of Peninsular India, rest parts of central India and Bihar and Gangetic west Bengal till 17th July with slight increase in distribution & intensity thereafter with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over region till 20th July, 2021.

 Rainfall likely to increase over east central India and west coast of India from 21^st July.

Week 2 (22 to 28 July)

 Southwest monsoon is likely to be in active phase over central India and adjoining parts of northwest India, west coast of the country and adjoining Peninsular India.

 Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls very likely along the west coast and central parts of India, Gujarat state, east Rajasthan and east coasts of India. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over parts of northwest during 2^nd half of the week.

 Overall, normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over west coast, northwest India (excluding Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh), central & adjoining east India. Below normal rainfall activity is likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, parts of southeast Peninsular India, northeastern states & adjoining east India.

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II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 15 July 2021)

 Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.

 Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs increased to 57.63 BCM from the previous week’s level of 56.61 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 62.13 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 49.92 BCM.

Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country

Source: CWC

 There were 94 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 22 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 10 reservoirs with storage between 31% to 50% and 04 reservoirs with storage upto 30%.

Source: Central Water Commission

 State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.

Period Storage as % of

FRL

Storage as % of Last Year

Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level

Current Week 33 93 115

Last Week 32 99 138

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 36% on 15.07.2020, 19% on 15.07.2019, 28% on 15.07.2018 and 25% on 15.07.2017.

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III. Fertilizer Position:

Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Kharif 2021 (As on 15.07.2021)

(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP

Opening Stock as on 01.04.2021 341 131 97 617 152

Requirement for Apr. 2021 to Sept 2021 17503 6518 2024 6187 2646 Estimated Requirement during July 2021 3773 1124 423 1254 497

Cumulative Receipt upto 15.07.2021 8027 2506 676 2989 1444

Cumulative Availability upto 15.07.2021 8368 2637 773 3606 1596

Cumulative Sales upto 15.07.2021 7281 2333 608 3124 1477

Closing Stock as on 15.07.2021 1087 304 165 482 119

Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer

IV. Pest & Diseases:

 Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.

 Whitefly, Thrips & Pink boll worm reported at above ETL in 320 hectare area on Cotton in Faridkot, Bathinda & Barnala districts of Punjab. Advisory issues (Date 08.07.2021)for Whitefly & Pink boll worm in cotton.

V. Seeds:

 There is sufficient availability of certified/quality seeds of all major Kharif crops for Kharif- 2021 except maize, minor millets, soybean and jute which will meet from National Seed Corporation Ltd, Farm Saved Seed and Private Seed Companies.

 Total availability of certified/quality seed is 165.08 lakh quintals against the requirement of 154.50 lakh quintals for Kharif-2021 season in the country. There is overall surplus of 10.58 lakh quintals seeds.

VI. Mandi Functioning

 PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 14 July, 2021)

 Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Arhar, Gram, Urad, Moong, Groundnut and Safflower.

 Agri produce sold above MSP: Barley, Masur, Copra, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.

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VII. Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items

Table – 7.1

Period /

Commodities Weight

Inflation (year on year)

June-2021 May-2021 June -2020

All Commodities 100.00 12.07 12.94 -1.81

Primary Articles 22.62 7.74 9.61 -0.07

(a) Food Articles 15.26 3.09 4.31 2.10

Cereals 2.82 -2.71 -2.52 2.72

Paddy 1.43 -2.42 -0.49 4.55

Wheat 1.03 -1.45 -2.54 5.11

Pulses 0.64 11.49 12.09 10.10

Gram 0.26 17.87 18.44 -1.84

Arhar 0.13 12.74 14.46 6.09

Moong 0.07 -4.94 -5.62 29.87

Masur 0.05 15.80 16.78 13.13

Urad 0.09 5.27 4.74 39.29

Vegetables 1.87 -0.78 -9.00 -9.21

Potato 0.28 -30.97 -27.90 56.20

Onion 0.16 64.32 23.24 -15.27

Fruits 1.60 5.57 20.17 2.31

Milk 4.44 1.65 2.51 4.40

Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 8.59 10.73 4.45

(b) Non-Food

Articles 4.12 18.86 18.37 -2.80

Oilseeds 1.12 37.53 35.94 3.20

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VIII. All-India Crop Situation Kharif (2021-22) as on 16-07-2021

Table 8.1

(In lakh ha.)

Crop Name

Normal Area for whole Rabi

Season

Area sown reported

Absolute Change This Year

2021

% of Normal for whole

season

Last Year 2020

Rice 395.66 161.97 40.9 174.44 -12.47

Jowar 19.52 6.85 35.1 9.34 -2.50

Bajra 73.43 22.02 30.0 36.60 -14.59

Maize 74.68 58.86 78.8 63.80 -4.94

Total Coarse Cereals 183.59 91.34 49.8 115.07 -23.73

Total Cereals 579.24 253.31 43.7 289.51 -36.19

Tur 45.64 32.79 71.8 32.20 0.59

Urad 37.96 17.87 47.1 23.29 -5.43

Moong 33.48 16.37 48.9 20.66 -4.29

Kulthi 2.18 0.20 9.1 0.21 -0.01

Others 16.70 3.42 20.5 4.00 -0.58

Total Pulses 135.95 70.64 52.0 80.36 -9.71

Total Foodgrains 715.20 323.95 45.3 369.86 -45.91

Groundnut 41.70 30.34 72.7 37.27 -6.94

Soyabean 112.88 93.23 82.6 105.84 -12.62

Sunflower 1.42 0.91 64.4 0.70 0.22

Sesamum 16.48 4.15 25.2 5.01 -0.87

Nigerseed 2.04 0.08 3.9 0.16 -0.08

Castorseed 8.98 0.16 1.8 0.31 -0.15

Total Oilseeds 183.50 128.91 70.2 149.35 -20.44

Cotton 123.59 98.38 79.6 113.01 -14.62

Sugarcane 47.53 53.70 113.0 52.82 0.88

Jute & Mesta 7.33 6.95 94.8 6.89 0.05

All- Crops 1077.15 611.89 56.8 691.93 -80.04

Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW

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IX. Progressive Procurement as on 16

^th

July, 2021

Table 9.1: Rice

(In lakh tonnes) State Procurement Estimates

during KMS 2020-21 (Kharif & Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 16.07.2021

In Marketing season 2020-2021

Andhra Pradesh 72.00 55.26 53.18

Telangana 105.00 94.35 74.54

Bihar 30.00 23.84 13.41

Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85

Haryana 44.00 37.89 43.07

Kerala 5.80 5.20 4.75

Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40

Maharashtra 15.88 12.01 11.19

Odisha 48.00 52.62 47.28

Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76

Tamil Nadu 29.00 25.61 18.01

Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.78 37.90

Uttarakhand 6.70 7.12 6.82

West Bengal 26.80 15.84 15.94

All-India 637.97 583.38 508.44

Table 9.2: Wheat

State Procurement Estimates during RMS 2021-2022

(Rabi Crops)

Progressive Procurement as on 16.07.2021

Punjab 130.00 132.10 127.12

Haryana 80.00 84.93 74.00

Uttar Pradesh 55.00 56.41 33.61

Madhya Pradesh 135.00 128.16 129.35

Bihar 7.00 4.56 0.05

Rajasthan 23.25 23.40 22.16

Uttarakhand 2.20 1.44 0.38

Gujarat 2.00 1.70 0.73

All-India 435.34 433.32 387.54

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Annexe-III/p-1

Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 15 – 21 July, 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST -2021

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 15 JUL 16 JUL 17 JUL 18 JUL 19 JUL 20 JUL 21 JUL

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^● WS^●● WS WS

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● FWS FWS

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA FWS^● FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS WS

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA FWS^● FWS^● WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS FWS

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM WS^● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS^● FWS WS

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL SCT FWS FWS WS^● FWS ISOL SCT

7 ODISHA SCT SCT SCT FWS^● FWS^● SCT ISOL

8 JHARKHAND SCT FWS WS^● WS^● FWS SCT SCT

9 BIHAR SCT^● FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS^● SCT SCT

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL FWS^● WS^●● WS^● SCT SCT

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT^● WS^●● WS^● FWS SCT

12 UTTARAKHAND FWS^● FWS^● WS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS FWS

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI SCT^● ISOL SCT WS^●● WS^●● WS FWS

14 PUNJAB ISOL ISOL ISOL FWS^● WS^● FWS FWS

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH SCT SCT FWS^● WS^●● WS^●● FWS FWS

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT^● WS^●● WS SCT

17 WEST RAJASTSAN ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● SCT SCT

18 EAST RAJASTSAN SCT SCT SCT^● FWS^●● FWS^● FWS FWS

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● FWS^● FWS FWS

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL ISOL SCT FWS^● WS^● WS FWS

21 GUJARAT REGION SCT^● SCT^● ISOL ISOL ISOL WS SCT

22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH SCT^● SCT^● ISOL ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA WS^●●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA WS^●● FWS^● FWS^● FWS^● WS^● FWS FWS

25 MARATHAWADA WS^● FWS FWS FWS WS SCT SCT

26 VIDARBHA FWS SCT SCT SCT FWS^● FWS SCT

27 CHHATTISGARH SCT SCT SCT FWS FWS^● SCT FWS

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM FWS^● FWS SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

29 TELANGANA WS^●● WS^● FWS^● FWS WS^● SCT SCT

30 RAYALASEEMA FWS^● FWS^● WS^● SCT SCT ISOL ISOL

31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL SCT^● SCT^● SCT^● ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS WS

33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^●● WS^● WS^● WS WS^● SCT SCT

34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA WS^●● WS^●● WS^●● WS^● WS SCT SCT

35 KERALA & MAHE WS^● FWS^● FWS^● WS^● WS^● FWS FWS

36 LAKSHADWEEP WS FWS FWS FWS FWS SCT SCT

LEGENDS:

WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL

●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ^●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ^●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

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Annex-III/ P.2

Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 16 – 20 July 2021:

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