تأثیر بهره‌وری بخشی بر نرخ واقعی مؤثر ارز در اقتصاد ایران (آزمون اثر بالاسا - ساموئلسون)

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

) ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ (

ﻲﺒﻴﻃ ﻞﻴﻤﻛ ﺪﻴﺳ

*

ﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻥﺎﻬﻔﺻﺍ ﻩﺎ

) komail@econ.ui.ac.ir (

ﻱﺯﺭ ﻲﻠﻴﻋﺎﻤﺳﺍ ﻦﻴﺴﺣ

ﻥﺎﻬﻔﺻﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ؛ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ )

h.esmaeili.r@gmail.com

(

ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

25 / 7 / 89 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

17 / 7 / 90

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱ

- ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ،ﻥﻮﺴﻠ ﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ

ﺕﺪـﻣﺪ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻩﺪـﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮـﺷ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻪﻧﻻﺎﺳ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ

2008 - 1980 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ .

ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠ ﺪـﻨﻛ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺎﻓﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

. ﻪﺑ ﻨﻣ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﻮﻈ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ) (ARDL ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﻲﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﺎﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ

.

ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻖﺒﻃ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠ ﺎـﺑ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﺩﻮـﺧ

ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ،ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺍﺩﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

5

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺖـﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ .

ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻠﻛ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻳ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ

ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ،ﻲـﻨﻌ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻘﺑﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ .

ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻪﻘﺒﻃ :JEL

F31; D24; C32

ﻩژﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ،ﻥﻮﺴﻠ ﻢﻫ ،ﻱﺭﻭ

،ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ARDL

* ﻩﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻱ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ

1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻚـﺷ ﻥﻭﺪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎـﻴﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻲـﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

ﻲـﻣ ﺭﺎﻤـﺷ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻴﻌـﺿﻭ ﻦﻴﻴﺒﺗ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺭ

.

ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺯﺍﺮـﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﻦﻴـﺒﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺩﺮﻜﻠﻤﻋ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺎﺳﻮﻧ ﻭ ﻲﮕﺘﻔﺷﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ

ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻮـﻤﻫ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ

ﻭ ﻥﺎـﺳﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﻛ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﻩﺭﺍ

ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻑﻮﻄﻌﻣ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ .

ﻲﻳﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻢﻛ ﻦﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ،ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﺗ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ .

ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﺘﺴﺨﻧ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ )1

1964 ( ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻭ ﺋ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠ

2

) 1964 ( ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﺘﺳﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ

ﺖﻓﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﻥﺎـﻬﺟ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ .

ﻲـﻟﻭ ﻢـﻫ ﻥﺎـﻨﭼ ﻲﻟﺎـﺧ ﻱﺎـﺟ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻲﻣ ﺱﺎﺴﺣﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ

.

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﺛﺍ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺮ

ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ .

ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ3

ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻱﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﺧﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﻑﺮﻃ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺪـﻨﻛ

. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻖـﺒﻃ

ﺮﮔﺍ ،ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﻓﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

گﺭﺰـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ؛ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ )

،ﻲﻧﺎﻛﺮﺟ ﻭ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ 1385

.(

ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻮﭘ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﺳ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﻝ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻑﻼﺘـﺧﺍ ﺶـﻘﻧ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ )

ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺩ

ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ (

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺑ .

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻦﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻱ 2

ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﺪﺷ

. ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ 3

ﻪـﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﺖـﻓﺮﮔ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

ﺶـﺨﺑ 4 ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺢﻳﺮـﺼﺗ ﻪـﺑ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ .

ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻭ 5

ﻭ 6 ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ،ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺢﻳﺮـﺼﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﻦﻤﺿ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

1- Balassa.

2- Samuelson.

3- Purchsing Power Parity (PPP).

2 - ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻑﻼﺧ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﻦﻴﺒﻣ ،ﺪﻫﺩ .

ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،ﻻﺎـﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺯﺎﺳ . ﻧ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮ

ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺮﻳﺬـﭘ

ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺪﻨﻛ

) ،ﻲﻧﺎﻛﺮﺟ ﻭ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ 1384

.(

ﻡﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﻥﻭﺪـﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﻳ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻭ

.

ﻭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺒﻧﺎﺟ

: ﺩﺎﺳ ﻩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻲﺗﺎﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺎـﺑ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﺪﺒﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ،ﺵﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎـﻳ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﺪﺒﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺮـﻛ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﺎـﺷﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﻭ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻭﺩ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩ

) ،ﻲﻳﺍﺮﻐﻃ 1385 .(

) 1 (

d d f

d P

E P BRER =

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ Ed

ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ،

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ

f . ﻭ P Pd

ﻲـﻠﻛ ﺎـﻳ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ .

ﺲﻳﺪـﻧﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﺮـﺑ ﺖـﻟﻻﺩd

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲـــﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻝﻮـــﭘ ﻪـــﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـــﻌﻗﺍﻭ .

،ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـــﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـــﻧ ﺺﺧﺎـــﺷ ﺶﻫﺎـــﻛ BRER d

ﺲﻜﻌﻨﻣ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻱ ﺎﻳ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺎ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ )

ﺍﻮﻣﻮﻴﺠﻨﺳ ﻭ ﻞﻜﻨﻴﻫ ،1

1999 .(

ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ :

ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻝﻮﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ

ﻝﻮﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺪﺒﺳ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﺶﺠﻨﺳ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺪﻫﺩ

. ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻚﻳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ

. ﻥﺯﻭ ﺎـﻫ

ﺲﻜﻌﻨﻣ ﺐﻠﻏﺍ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻱ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺮﻫ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ .

REER ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

ﺩﻮﺷ .

) 2 (

[ ]

ⁱ

m W m

d di i dwi

i d i

REER E PG BRER

= PG =

=

Õ

´ ´ =

Õ

1 1

1

1- Hinkle and Nsengiyumva .

di i d

E , PG , PG ﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﺖ ﻲﻣﻮـﻤﻋ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﻡﺍi

ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺍi

. ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ m

ﻑﺮﻃ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺎﺒﻗﺭ ﺎﻳ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﻱﺎﻫ .

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻲﺳﺪﻨﻫ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ

ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ Wi

ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻲﻣi

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺯﻭ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ )

،ﺍﻮﻣﻮﻴﺠﻨﺳ ﻭ ﻞﻜﻨﻴﻫ 1999

(

.

2 - 1 - ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺋ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻱﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺪﻨﻛ

. ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻱ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﺮـﺴﻛ ﻪﻠﻴـﺳﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻣﻮﻤﻋ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ .

ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ P P*

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ

ﺭﺪـﻗ ﻱﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻭ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺕ

ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ e

ﺎﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ :

) 3 (

p*

e= p

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ ﺎﺑ

ﻦـﭘ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ1

ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻨﻛ

ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻲﻠﻣ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺵﺭﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻳ .

ﺮـﺛﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻦﭘ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ،ﺪﻨﻛ

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄـﺳ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻮﺸﻛ )

،ﻪـﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ

( ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻲـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺎﻫﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺎـﻫ ﻢـﻛ ﺎـﺗ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻞـﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺮـﺗ

ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ .

ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻲـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺍﺪﻗﺍ )

ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ (

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ

) ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ( ﻲﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﺕﺎـﻓﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻲـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺎﻛ گﺭﺰﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻱﺎﻫﻻ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺮـﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺗ

ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲـﻠﻣ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺪﻫﺎـﺷ ﺪـﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ؛ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻌﺑﺎﺗ ،ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲ

.

1- Penn-effect.

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﻮﺌﺗ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻮﻣﺎﺳ -

ﺋ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻲـﺳﺎﺳﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺪﻨﭼ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻥﻮﺴﻠ .

ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،ﺖﺴﺨﻧ )

ﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ (

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ )

ﻪﺘـﺴﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ (

ﻲﻣ ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﺠﺑﺎﺟ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ،ﻡﻭﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

. ﻡﻮـﺳ ،

ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﺠﺑﺎﺟ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﺍﺪـﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺮﺟﺎﻬﻣ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ

.

ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﺗ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺚﻋﺎﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻚﻳ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ

ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﺭﺩ ﻭ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗﺮﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻂﻘﻓ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ،ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ )

ﺍﻮـﺸﺟﻻ ،1

2003 .(

ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺐﺒﺳ

ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ .

ﺽﺮـﻓ ﺎـﺑ

ﻝﺎـﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ .

ﺍﺬﻟ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ

ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺗ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺐـﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ .

ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ،ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺏﺎﻛ - ﺱﻼﮔﺍﺩ ﻪﺑ2

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

) 4 (

NT NT NT NT

Y =A L^d K^1-d

ﻭ

T T T T

Y =A L K^{g 1-g}

ﻪــﻛ ﻱﺭﻮــﻃ ﻪــﺑ :

-A ﻩﺮــﻬﺑ ﻞــﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞــﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ )

(TFP ، -L ،ﺭﺎــﻛ ﻱﻭﺮــﻴﻧ -K

،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ

-T ،ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ -NT

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ .

ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮـﺳ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ

ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ :

) 5

NT NT NT NT NT(

G =P Y -RK -WL

T T T T T ﻭ

G =P Y -RK -WL

ﻪﻛ -P : ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ -G

،ﺩﻮـﺳ -R ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ )

ﻩﺩﺯﺎـﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ (،

-W ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ .

ﻱﺎـﺟ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ

ﻱ ) 4 ( ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱ

) 5 ( ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮـﺧ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ :

) 6 (

T T T T T T T

NT NT NT NT NT NT NT

G P A L K RK WL

G P A L K RK WL

g -g

d -d

= - -

= - -

1 1

1- Lojschova.

2- Cobb-Douglas.

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ،ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

) 7a (

NT NT

NT NT

K W

A L P

æ ö-d

dç ÷ =

è ø

1

ﻭ

T T

T T

K W

A L P

æ ö-g

gç ÷ =

è ø

1

) 7b (

NT NT

NT NT

L R

A ( )

K P

æ öd

- d ç ÷ =

è ø

1

ﻭ

T T

T T

L R

A ( )

K P

æ ög - g ç ÷ =

è ø

1

ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

) 7a ( ﻭ ) 7b ( ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻭ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺎﻫ

ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ (PT =1)

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ .

ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻑﻭﺮﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ .

) 8 (

T T T

NT NT NT NT

T T T

NT NT NT NT

w ln a ( )(k l )

w p ln a ( )(k l )

r ln( ) a (k l )

r p ln( ) a (k l )

= g + + - g -

= + d + + - d -

= - g + - g -

= + - d + - d -

1

1 1

1

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺍﺮﻔﻳﺩ ﺮﮕﻠﻤﻋ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱ

) 8 ( ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ

D =R 0 ﻭ

( ) ( )

Dd = Dg = D - d = D - g =1 1 0 ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﻤﻧ ﻭ

m a p wˆ, ˆ,ˆ, ˆ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻑﻭﺮﺣ )

(ln ﺩﺎـﻤﻧ ﻭ ) (^ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻞﻴـﺴﻧﺍﺮﻔﻳﺩ ﻡﻮـﻬﻔﻣ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ

K

W P A L

, , ,

W P A K

L æ ö D ç ÷

D D D è ø

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 9 (

T T

ˆ ˆ

wˆ =a + - g(1 )m

) 10 (

NT NT NT

ˆ ˆ ˆ

wˆ =p +a + - d(1 )m

) 11

T T (

ˆ ˆ

a = gm

) 12

NT NT NT (

ˆ ˆ ˆ

p = dm -a

ﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺎ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱ

) 12 ( ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ) 10 ( ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 13 (

T T T

ˆ ˆ ˆ

wˆ = gm + - g(1 )m =m

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱ

) 13 ( ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ) 11 ( ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 14 (

ˆT

a =wˆ g

ﻱﺎﺟ ﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﻄﺑﺍ ﻱ ) 12 ( ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻱ ) 11 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺪﻫﺩ

:

) 15 (

NT NT NT NT NT

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

wˆ =p + dm -p + - d(1 )m =m

ﻱﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻱ

) 15 ( ﺭﺩ ) 10 ( ﻭ ) 14 ( ﺭﺩ ) 15 ( ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

:

) 16 (

NT NT

ˆ ˆ

ˆ ˆ

w=p +a + - d(1 )w

) 17 (

T T

NT NT

ˆ ˆ

a a

ˆ ˆ

p a ( )

= + + - d

g 1 g

) 18 (

NT T NT

ˆ ˆ ˆ

p da a

= -

g

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 18 ( ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻡﺰﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﻱ -

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﻪـﺑ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻞـﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶـﺨﺑ

ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺐﺒـﺳ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ .

ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ) (d=g ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻡﺪـﻋ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 18 ( ﺎﺑ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ :

) 19

NT T T NT (

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

p -p =a -a

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 19 ( ﺩﺎﻤﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻚﻳﺮﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

*) ( ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ

:

) 20

* * * * (

NT T NT T T NT T NT

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

(p -p ) (p- -p )=(a -a ) (a- -a )

ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻧﺯﻭ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ

ﺖﺴﻧﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ :

) 21 (

T NT

ˆ ˆ ˆ

P= aP + -a(1 )P

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻥﺯﻭa

. ﺎـﺑ ﻝﺎـﺣ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻲـﺴﻳﻮﻧﺯﺎﺑ

ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺑ ﻪ ﻖﺘﺸﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

،ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ :

) 22

* (

ˆ ˆ

ˆ ˆ

q= +e P -P

ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ )

21 ( ﻭ ) 22 ( ﻭ ) 17 ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺪﻫﺩ

:

) 23

* * * * (

T T T NT T NT

ˆ ˆ

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

q= +e P -P +éë(1- a )(a -a ) (- - a1 )(a -a )ùû ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 23 ( ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ -

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻥﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻭ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

. ﺎـﺑ ﺮﮔﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ،ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ

ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺝﺭﺎـﺧ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺒﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺍﻮﺧ ﻱﺮﺗ

ﻲﺗﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺖـﺷﺍﺩ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺝﺭﺎـﺧ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﺗ

. ﻖـﺒﻃ ﻭ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ

ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ .

ﺽﺮﻓ ﻑﺬﺣ ﺎﺑ ،ﻞﻤﻋ ﺭﺩ (d = g)

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ -

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻖﺒﻃ ﻪﻛ

ﻱ ) 26 ( ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻱ

.

) 24

* (

* * * *

T T * T NT T NT

ˆ ˆ

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

q= +e P -P +éê( - a )(d a -a )- - a( )( ad -a )ùú g g

ê ú

ë û

1 1

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﻛ

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻡﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻗﺮﺑ

. ﺭﺩ ،ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻱ

) 24 (

ﻲﻣ ﻞﻴﻣ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻨﻛ

. ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺲﭘ -

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ :

) 25 (

* * * *

T NT T NT

ˆ * ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

q ( )(d a a ) ( )( ad a )

= - a - - - a -

g g

1 1

ﻦﻴﭼ) ،1

2000 ( ، ) ﻮﻧﺎﻴﺟ ﻭ ﻭﺮﺘﻴﻣﻭﺩ ،2

2006 ( ﻭ )

3ﻪﻴﺴﻫ ، 1982 (.

ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﮔ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﺭﺩ a

ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞـﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ )

(TFP ﺎـﻣﺍ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ

ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺰﺗﺎﻨﺷ )

2005 ( ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺍ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺰﺗﺎﻨﺷ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

- ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ

ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺎﺑ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ :

) 26

* * * (

T NT T NT

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

qˆ= - a(1 )(ALP -ALP ) (- - a1 )(ALP -ALP )

ﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﺳﺭﺮ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻂـﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ .

ﻱﺭﺍﻮﺷﺩ ،ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺭﻭ ﻞـﻛ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻣﺍﻮﻋ

ﻩﺍﺮﻤﮔ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻊـﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ

،ﻲﺿﺮﻓ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺐﺒﺳ

ﺖﻳﺰﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎ ﻱﺎـﺟ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻞﻛ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

3 - ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻣ

ﻲﻧﺎﻛﺮﺟ ﻭ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ )

1385 ( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

» ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺕﺍﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭ ﻲـﺸﺨﺑ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻙﻮﺷ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱ

1378 - 1345 « ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ-

ﺍﺭ

1- Chinn.

2- Dumitro and Jianu.

3- Hsieh.

ﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻥﺍ

. ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻱ

ﻚـﻴﻨﻜﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻢﻫ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻥﻮﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎـﻣﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲـﻃ ﻲـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﻱ

) 1378 - 1345 ( ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻛﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ،ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗﺮﻴﻏ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﺳﻮﻜﻌﻣ ﻱ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ؛ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ )

ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ( ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ )

ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ( ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ .

ﻮﻠﭽﮔ ﻭ ﻲﻫﺎﮔﺭﺩ )

1380 ( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

"

ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ

ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ

ﻢﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ـﺿﻮﺗ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻲﻳﺍﺮﮔ

ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﺢﻴ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻩﺩﺮﺘﺴﮔ

"

ﺪـﻨﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﺭﺎـﺘﻓﺭ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ .

ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ ﻑﺪـﻫ

ﺮـﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ،ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺕﺪﻣ

ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ

. ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻱﺯﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺭﺎﺘﻓﺭ ﻱ

ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻥﻭﺯﻮﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺪﺷﺭ ،ﺖﻔﻧ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﺖﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ،ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺕﺪﺷ ،ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻮـﭘ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻲﻟﺎـﻣ ﺖـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ،ﻱﺯﺭﺍ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻦﻴـﻴﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ،ﻲﻠﻣ ﻝﻮﭘ ﻲﻤﺳﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻒﻴﻌﻀﺗ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺰﺗﺎﻨﺷ )1

2005 ( ﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

"

ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺭﻻﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ -

ﻭﺭﻮـﻳ

"

،

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺭﻻﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

- ﺪﻧﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻭﺭﻮﻳ .

ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ - ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺮﺑ ،

ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ

.

ﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺵﻭ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﻥﻮـﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﻲﺠﻨـﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﻛﺪﻫﺩ

ﻪﻫﺩ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻱ

1990 ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﺴﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ

ﺩﻭﺪﺣ 18 ﺪﻫﺩ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺭﻻﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻭﺭﻮﻳ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﺩ .

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺥﺮـﻧ ،ﺖﻟﻭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻢﻬﻣ ﻪﻤﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻖﺒﻃ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺖﻔﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺗ

ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ ﺛﺄـﺗ

ﺮﻴ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔ

ﺪﻧﺩﻮﺑ . ﻲﻳﻮﻜﺳﺍ ﻲﻨﻤﻬﺑ ءﺎﺟ ﻥﻮﻴﻫ ﻭ2

-

3ﻱﺭ ) 1996 ( ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

» ﻱﺮـﺳ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻱ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

- ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﺵﺭﻮﺗ : ﻩﺮﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺗﺍﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ

« ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻲﻠﺼﻓ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

1973 ﺎﺗ 1993 ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻲﻠـﺻﺍ ﻚﻳﺮﺷ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻛ ﻭ ﺲﻴـﻠﮕﻧﺍ ،ﻦـﭘﺍژ ،ﻥﺎـﻤﻟﺁ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﺵﺍ

ﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻥ

ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ .

ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺐﻳﺮـﺿ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻢـﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ

1- Schnatz, et al.

2- Bahmani- Oskooee.

3- Hyun Jae-Rhee.

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ،ﻥﻮﺴﻧﺎﻫﻮﻳ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺻﺎﺣ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ

ﺕﺭﺪـﻗ ﻱﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻱ

ﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺕ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ .

4 - ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﻢﻫ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ

ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﻫﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺖﻬﺟ ،ARDL

ﺪﺷ . ﻢﻫ ﻡﻮﻬﻔﻣ ﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚـﻳﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲ ﻟﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻱ

ﺑ ﻲ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﺎـﻳ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﺮﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻴ . ﺒﻌﺗ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﻴ ﺪـﻨﭼ ﺎﻳ ﻭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ

ﻐﺘـﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺮـﻴ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ،ﻢﻫ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻱ

ﺘﺣ ،ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲ ﻐﺘـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻚﻳﺮﻫ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲ

ﺎـﻫﺮﻴ

ﻳﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﻚـﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻁﺎـﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻚﻳ ،ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻑﺮﺤﻨﻣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛﺭﺩ ﻲ

ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ )

،ﺱﺭﺪﻧﺍ 1386 .(

ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﻛ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ARDL

ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ

- ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

) 37 (

s n

t t t i t i j t j

i j

n

j t j t

j

REER INPT T REER TPIRALP

NTPIRALP u

- -

= =

= -

= + q + a + q

+ q +

å å

å

1

2

1

1 0

2 0

ﻥﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺽﺮﻋINPT

ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ، T ،ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

i, j

ﻭ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﺐﻳﺍﺮـﺿ q a

ni

ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ

ﻱ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺐﺨﺘﻨﻣARDL

t. ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﺰﻴﻧ u

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ .

ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﺳ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺪـﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ

ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺪـﻣ

ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ ﺎﺗ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺩﺩﺮﮔ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ

.

ﺎﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﻭ

.

ﻢﻫ ﺁ ﺯﺍ ،ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻥ

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻓﺮﺻ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺟ -

ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻟ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ

ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺬ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺸﻧ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .

ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻢﻫ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﭘ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ،ﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ .

ﺪﺠﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ

ًﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﺩﻮﺧ ﻥﺁ

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻑﻮﻄﻌﻣ ﺍﺭ -

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻳﺎﻤﻧ .

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻫ ،ﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺖـﺳﺍ

ﻮﺳ ،ﺲﻴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﺋ

،ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘـﺳﺍ ،ﻥﺎـﻤﻟﺁ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺎﭙـﺳﺍ ،ﻪﻴـﺳﻭﺭ ،ﻦـﭘﺍژ ،ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺘﻳﺍ ،ﻪﺴﻧﺍﺮﻓ ،ﻦﻴﭼ ،ﺍﺩﺎﻧﺎﻛ ،ﺲﻴ

ﻩﺮﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﻱ

ﻲﺑﻮﻨﺟ . ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﺍ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻩﺪﺤﺘﻣ

ﻱ ﻥﺍﺪـﻘﻓ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺑﺮﻋ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﺘﻔﻫ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻑﺬﺣ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ

1373 ﺎﺗ 1385 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺹﺎـﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﻧﺍ

. ﺥﺮـﻧ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻪﻧﺎﻴﻟﺎـﺳ ﻱ ﻭ ﻕﻮـﻓ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ

1980 ﺎﺗ 2008 ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ )

:(REER ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲـﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺖـﻬﺟ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻳﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

) (CPI ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﻻﺩ ﻪـﻳﺎﭘ ﺮـﺑ

2000 ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ ﻲ 2008 - 1980 ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ

. ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻤﺳﺭ ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻡﺮـﻧ ﻪﺘـﺴﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ،WDI ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﺯﻭ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪـﺑ

ﻮـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﻬﻤﺟ ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻢـﺠﺣ ﺩﺭ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻛﺮﻤﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ )

TPIRALP ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ :(

ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ) TPIRALP ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ(

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱ .

ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ -

ﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﺋ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎـﮕﻟ ﺯﺍ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ )

PTALP (

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ )

IRTALP (

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

IRTALP ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ،

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ .

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ

ﺎـﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ )

1964 ( ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺯﺍ ؛ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨ

ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻩﺩﺭ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ

ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ) (ISIC ﻭ ﻲﻳﺎـﺳﺎﻨﺷ1

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺪﻧﺍ

. ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ

1- International Standard Industrial Classification.

ﻱﺭﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻡﺮﻧ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭWDI

ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ

ﺳﺍ ﺖ . ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺎـﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺭﻻﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ 2000

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

ﺑ ﻪ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮـﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺯﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻥﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻱﺩ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱ

1385 - 1335

) ،ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻨﻴﻣﺍ 1386

( ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ

ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺭﺩISIC

ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ )

NTPIRALP ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ:(

ﻱ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺭﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺎﺑ ﺱﻮﻜﻌﻣ .

ﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻱﻮـﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﺭﻮ

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ - ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺯﺍ

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ )

PNTALP ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻪﺑ(

ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ) IRNTALP (

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ

.

IRNTALP ﺑ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ

ﻩﺮﻬ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺖـﺳﺍ

. ﺭﺩ

ﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ،ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﺶـﺨ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﻪـﻘﺒﻃ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﺭ ﻂـﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ

ﻱﺪـﻨﺑ

ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ

) (ISIC ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ

ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻡﺮـﻧ ﻪﺘـﺴﺑ ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭWDI ﻪﺑ

ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ

ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺭﻻﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ 2000

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪـﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ

.

ﺖـﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻱﺮـﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮـﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻏﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ )

1385 - 1335 ( ﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣ

.

PNTALP ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻢﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ .

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻩﺪـﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮـﺷ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺯﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎـﺷ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺭﻮﻛﺬـﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ

ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﺭﺩ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻱﺎﻛﺮـﺷ ﺕﺎﻣﺪـﺧ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰـﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ

ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻡﺮﻧ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ

ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭWDI

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ـﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﻩﺩﻭﺰﻓﺍ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻪ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ ﺭﻻﺩ 2000

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺭﺩ ﻞﻏﺎـﺷ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ

ﻩﺪﻤﻋ ﻱﺎﻛﺮﺷ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱ

ﻡﺮـﻧ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ

WDI

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ ﻚﻧﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ .

5 - ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ

- ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ

ARDL

ﻲﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﻪـﻔﻗﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﺢﻴـﺿﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻩﺩﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻱﺎـﻫ

) (ARDL ﺵﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻨﺘﺒﻣ

ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﻧﻮﻤﻧ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻪﭼ

ﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻱ ﻪـﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻴ

ﺯﺍ ﻱﺍ

ﻐﺘﻣ ﻢﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴ ﻣ ،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻲﻌﻤﺟ

ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ ﺵﻭﺭ

OLS

ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ .

ﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﻠﺻﺍ ﻲ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻲ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺭﺩARDL

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻧ ﺍﺬﻟ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻲﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻱ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺎﻴ

ﻪـﺸﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﻱ

ﻌﺗ ﻴ ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻴ ﮕﺘﺷﺎﺒﻧﺍ ﻱ

ﻧ ﻲ ﺖﺴﻴ . ﻣ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻲ

ﺤﺼﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺎـﻄﺧ ﺢﻴ

) (ECM ﺯﺍ1

ﻳﺪﺒﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻄﺧ ﻞ

ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎـﺳ ﻲ )

(ARDL ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﻪـﺑ .

ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻥﻭﺪـﺑECM

ﻫ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺗﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﭻﻴ

ﻳﺎﻳﻮﭘ ،ﻲ ﻲ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻩﺍﺮـﻤﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺕﺪﻣﺪﻨﻠﺑ ﻲ

ﺪﻫﺩ . ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻢـﻫ ﻲﺠﻨﺳ

ﻲـﻌﻤﺟ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑARDL

ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ

.

5 - 1 - ﺮﺑ ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ -

ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ

ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ

ﻱ ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ -

ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ

ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻑﺮـﻃﺮﺑ ﻝﻼـﺧﺍ ﺕﻼـﻤﺟ ﻲﻟﺎﻳﺮﺳ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺒﻤﻫﺩﻮﺧ ﺎﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ .

ﺖـﻴﻓﻭﺮﻜﻳﺎﻣ ﺭﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻡﺮـﻧ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ﻣ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻟﻮـﻤﻌﻣ ﺕﺎـﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻳ ﺮﻳﺩﺎـﻘ

4 3 2 1 0,, , , s= ﻭ n=0 1 2 3 4, , , , ﻭ

2 1 0,, i= ﺩﺍﺪــﻌﺗ ﻪــﺑ

( + )2 1+ 4 1

ﻒــﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻝﺪــﻣ ARDL

ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﺨﺗ ﺪﻧﺯ

. ﺯﺭﺍﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ -

ﺎﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺰﻴﺑ -

ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ،

ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﻱ ﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻨﻴﻬﺑ 4

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ، ﻱﺭﻭ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ 2

ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺭﻭ ﻱ

ﺮﻴﻏ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻱﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﺐﻳﺍﺮﺿ ،ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ

ﺎــﺳﻻﺎﺑ ﺮــﺛﺍ -

ﻥﻮــﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺖــﻓﺎﻴﻫﺭ ﺮــﺑ ﻲــﻨﺘﺒﻣ ﺕﺎــﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪــﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ

ARDL(₎ ﻝﻭﺪﺟ ﺭﺩ

) 1 ( ﻩﺪﺷ ﺵﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ

.

1- Error Correction Model.