اثر تجارت درون صنعت حاشیه‌ای بر تخصیص دوباره مازاد شغلی در صنایع کارخانه ای ایران

ﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺮﺛ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ

ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﺨﺳﺍﺭ ﺪﻴﻌﺳ

1

*

ﻭ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻮﻀﻋ

ﺕﺄﻴﻫ ﻲﻤﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻩﻭﺮﮔ ﻥﺍﺭﺪﻧﺯﺎﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ

srasekhi@umz.ac.ir

ﻱﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻥﺎﻣﺎﺳ

ﻱﺮﺘﻛﺩ ﻱﻮﺠﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻥﺍﺭﺪﻧﺯﺎﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ

saman_e82@yahoo. com

ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

13 / 2 / 1389 ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :

23 / 8 / 91

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ

، ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ،

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﻐـﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻭﻻ )

2002 (

ﻪﺑ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻲﻣ

ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺍ

، ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺩﺍﺯﺎـﻣ

ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺍ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ .

ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،

ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍ

ﺢﻄﺳ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ 3 ﻢﻗﺭ ﻘﺒﻃ ﻪ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ ﻲﻃISIC

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 85 - 1381

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ .

ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎـﻫ

، ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻭﺭﺩ ﻥ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ًﻻﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺐﺒـﺳ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﻮﺷ

، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ، ﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻟﻭﺩ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﺎﻫ

ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ

ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ

، ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺮﺗ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ

.

ﻘﺒﻃ ﻪ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ :JEL

،F12

،F14

،F16

.J62

ﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻩژﺍﻭ : ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ، ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ ،

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ، ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ، ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺍ

.

* - ﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ ﻝﻮﺌﺴﻣ ﻩ

1 - ﺪﻘﻣ ﻪﻣ ﺎﺑﻭﺩﺭﻮﻛ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺎﻴﻟ )1

2006 (،

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺪﻌﺗ

2ﻞﻳ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺪﻨﻛ

، ﻩﺩﺮـﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺪـﻧﺍ

. ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ،

ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ) ﻪﻘﻴﻠﺳ ( ، ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻦﻴﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﻦﻴـﺑ

ـﻠﻠﻤﻟﺍ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲ . ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ .

ﻪﺑ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ،

ﻭ ﺵﺮﺘـﺴﮔ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ

ﻱ ﻲﺟﺭﺎـﺧ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻲـﻣ

ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﻫ ﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ ﻪ

ﻱﺍ ﻩﺍﺮـﻤﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ .

ﻦﻳﺮﺗﻻﺎـﺑ ًﻻﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ

ﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﻞ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻛ ،

ﺶﻴـﺑ ﺮـﺗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ

ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻪﻛ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ

ﺮﺑﺭﺎﻛ ، ﮋﻳﻭ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺺﺼﺨﺗ ﻩ

ﻱﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺍﺩﺭﻮﺧﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ .

ﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﻮﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻲـﻃ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺩﺎ

ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ ﻱ ، ﻲـﻣ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﻪـﺑ ﺪـﺳﺭ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻈﺣﻼﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻞـﻴﻤﺤﺗ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣﺭﺪﻗ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﻠﻐـﺷ ﻲـﻃ3

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻋﺩﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﻱ ﻲـﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ

ﺪـﻨﻛ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮـﺑ

ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ، ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣﺭﺪﻗ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 85 - 1381 ،

ﺩﻭﺪﺣ 283 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ، ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐـﺷ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﺩﻭﺪـﺣ

14 / 0 ،ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻛ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ .4

ﻪﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻱ

ﺠﺗ ﻡﻮﺳﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺭﺎ

، ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ )

(IIT ﻪﻓﺮﻃ ﻭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺎﻳ5

-6

ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻢﻫ

ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻪـﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ

ﺹﺎﺧ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ -

ﺖﺳﺍ ) ﻲﺨـﺳﺍﺭ ، 1386 ( . ﺕﺎـﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺮـﻴﺧﺍ )

(IIT ،

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ

) ﻮﺳ ﻭ ﻮﺗﺮﻓ

7ﺱ ، 2008 ( . ﺭﺩ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ

ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻡﺍﺭﺁ ) (SAH ،8

ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ

ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻢﻛ ﺮـﺗ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ

9

1- Liard and Cordoba.

2- Adjustment costs.

3- Measure of Excess Job Reallocation.

4 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

. 5- Intra-Industry Trade (IIT).

6- Two way trade.

7- Fertő and SOÓS.

8- Smooth Adjustment Hypothesis (SAH).

9- Inter-industry trade.

ﻪﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻩﺍﺮﻤﻫ )

ﻮﻨﻴﺘﺳﺎﻓ ﻭ ﻮﺋﺎﺘﻴﻟ ،1

2009 ،

2ﻮﺗﺮﻓ ، 2005 ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ﻭ

ﺕﻮﻴﻟﺍ ،3

2002 ( . ﻪـﺑ

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ،

ﻪﺑﺎﺟ ﻳﺎﺟ ﻳﺯ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲ ﺮ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺎﻫ )

ﻪـﺑﺎﺟ ﻳﺎـﺟ ﻲ

ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺎﻳ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ (

ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑﺎﺟ

ﻳﺎﺟ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲ

ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ .

ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ

ﻱ ﻩﮋـﻳﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ

ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻫ

ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪـﻧﻮﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎ

ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ،

ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺵﺮﺘﺴﮔ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺭ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ،4

ﺭﺩ

ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻲﻳﺎﺳﺎﻨﺷ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ ،

ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺍ

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ، ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ

ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ،

ﻱﺎـﻫ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﺭﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ،

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﻩﺎﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ

ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺳ

ﻘﺒﻃ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻪ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ

5ISIC ﻲﻃ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ

85 - 1381 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ .

ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﺭﺩ ﻱ ﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ

ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ ﺩﺮﻛ : ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ

ﺍﺭ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻱ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻪـﻛ

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﺍﺭ

ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻩﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﺪﻧﺍ . ﻮﻨﻴﺘﺳﺎﻓ ) 2010 ( ﻮﺋﺎﺘﻴﻟ ﻭ ﻮﻨﻴﺘﺳﺎﻓ ﻭ )

2010 (،

ﺗﺮﭘ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲـﻃ ﻝﺎـﻐ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 2003 - 1996 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﻮـﺗﺮﻓ ؛ﺎﺘـﺴﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺎـﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ ﻭ

ﺱﻮﺳ ) 2008 ( ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺭﺎﺠﻣ

ﻭ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻬﻟ ﻲﻃ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 98 - 1990 ﻭ ﺎـﺑ

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

؛ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ

) 2006 ( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻥﺎﺘـﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ

ﻲﻃ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 2000 - 1992 ﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

؛ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ ﻝﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻛ

ﻭ ﺍﻮﻠﻴـﺳ

) 2006 ( ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻝﺎﻐﺗﺮﭘ ﻲﻃ ﻝﺎﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ 1995 ، 1997 ﻭ 1999 ﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ

ﻝﺪـﻣ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﺕﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ؛ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ )

2002 ( ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺎﺘﺴﻠﮕﻧﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪـﻫﺩ

ﻱ 1980 ﻭ

ﻲﻟﻮﻤﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﺑﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ،

ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻡﺍﺭﺁ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ

ﻭ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺪـﻴﻳﺄﺗ

ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ .

ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ، ﻮﺋﺎـﺘﻴﻟ ﻭ ﻮﻨﻴﺘـﺳﺎﻓ )

2009 ( ﻲـﻃ ﻝﺎـﻐﺗﺮﭘ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ

2003 - 1996 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻮﺗﺮﻓ ؛ﺎﻳﻮﭘ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ )

2005 ( ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﻳﺍﺬﻏ

1- Faustino and Leitão.

2- Fertő .

3- Brülhart and Elliott.

4 - ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺪﻧﻭﺭ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺗ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ

ﻱ ﻲﺨﺳﺍﺭ ) 1386 ( ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ .

5- International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC).

ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺭﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻃ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 2002 - 1992 ﻭ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻩ ﺎـﻫ ؛ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱ

ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ﻭ

ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ) 2004 ( ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻟﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻃ ﻪـﻫﺩ ﻱ 1980 ﺎـﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘـﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ

ﻝﺪـﻣ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ

؛ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ ﺖﻟﺭﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻟﺭﺍ

) 2003 ( ﻲﻃ ﻪﻴﻛﺮﺗ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ 99 - 1974

ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺎﻫ

؛ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱ ﻭ

ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ﻭ

پﺭﻮﺛ ) 2000 ( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺭﻮـﺸﻛ ﻱﺰﻟﺎـﻣ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ 94 - 1990 ﻭ ﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎـﺗ ﻱ ،

ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ

ﻡﺍﺭﺁ ﺍﺭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻲﻟﻭ

ﺁ ﻥ ﺍﺭ ﺄﺗ ﻳ ﺪﻴ ﺩﺮﻜﻧ ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ .

ﻱﺭﻭﺁﺩﺎﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ

ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻡﺎـﺠﻧﺍ ،

ﻉﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ

ﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻪ

ﻱﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻡﺎﺠﻧﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮕﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ .

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻨﭘ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﺞ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ .

ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻪـﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺶـﺨﺑ

ﻩﺪـﻣﺁ ، ﺭﺩ

ﻡﻭﺩ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ) (MIIT ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ1

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ

ﻡﻮـﺳ ﺶـﺨﺑ .

، ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺢﻳﺮـﺼﺗ ﺎـﻫ

ﻖـﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ .

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻥﻮﻣﺯﺁ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻡﺭﺎﻬﭼ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﮔ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻬﻨﺸﻴﭘ ﻭ ﻱﺮﻴ

ﻢﺠﻨﭘ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ

ﻥﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻣﺁ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻱﺎﻬﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺬﺧﺂﻣ ﻭ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ

.

2 - ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ .

ﺭﺩ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ،

ﺮﻳﺯ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻪﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ

، ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻤـﺴﻗ

ﺶﺨﺑﺮﻳﺯ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺎﻫﺭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪـﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺪﺷ

2ﺪﻧﺍ ، ﺏﺬﺟ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱ . ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ

ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ، ﻥﻮﺴﻠﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻭﻻ )

2002 (،

ﻪﺘـﺴﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚـﻳ ﻲﻟﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺱﺎـﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ،

ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﻛ ﻱ

ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﻲﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ .

ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،

ﺖﻤﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ

ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ،

ﻭﺩ

ﻭ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻢﻫ

ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻪ

ﻱﺍ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻤـﺳ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻭ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺽﺮﻓ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ، ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻁﺮـﺷ

ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ

ﺩﻮﺷ

، ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ

ﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪ

ﻱﺍ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻪﻳﻮـﺴﺗ ﻱ ﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺗ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﻣ .

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺲﭙﺳ ﺎـﻫ

ﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺩ ﻝﺎـﺒﻧ ﺮـﺑ ﻥﺁ

ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ، ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﺮﻴﺧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺯﺍ ،

ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮـﺛﺍ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻉﻮـﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ

1- Marginal Intra Industry Trade (MIIT).

2- Contracting subsectors.

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ )

ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ ( ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ

ﺖـﺳﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ . ﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺋﺰﺟ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻪﻣﺍﺩ

.

ﺖﻤﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ

ﻱ ﻥﻮﺴﻠﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻭﻻ ﻝﺪﻣ ،

ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻭﺩ )

Y1

ﻭ Y2

( ﺎـﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱ

1ﻱﺍ ، ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ژﺎﺘﻧﻮﻣ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻧﻮﺷ :

) 1 j (

Y F (A , A ), j , j= j j =1 2

1 2

ﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻥ Fj

ﻭ ﻱﺮـﻴﮔ ﻞﻴـﺴﻧﺍﺮﻔﻳﺩ ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺭﺎﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻄﺧ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ Aij

ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺏﺬـﺟ

2

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﺽﺮﻓ ﻖﺒﻃ ،

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ .

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎـﻫ

ﺰـﻴﻧ

ﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺹﺎﺧ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ3

:

) 2

ij (

ij ij ij

X =f (L , K )

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺭﺩ ،

ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﻱ ﻞـﻣﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻞﻛ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ :

) 3 ( L=L11+L12+L21+L22

ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻞـﺧﺍﺩ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ

(p P )

= ²P ﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ 1

ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺪ G )

( ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ :

j

Zj=D (p, )G (4 )

ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻤﻧ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ

ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ، ﻪﻳﻮـﺴﺗ ﻡﺰﻠﺘـﺴﻣ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻱ

ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ :

) 5

{ }

(

j j

Y =Z j= 1 2,

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ،

ﺮﻫ ﺁ ﻥ ﻪﭼ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻡﺍj

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ، ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ

ﻪﻳﻮﺴﺗ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ . ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺲﻜﻋﺮﺑ ،

ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍ

، ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻖـﺒﻃ ،

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

. ﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻥﺯﺍﻮـﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪ

،ﻱﺍ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ :

) 6

* (

ij ij

i j

q N =

åå

⁰

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

*

qij ij ij ijﻭ N =X -A

، ﺺﻟﺎـﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻬﺟ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ

ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍ

) ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﻫ ( ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺎـﻫ

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺮـﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺗﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ

1- Intermediate inputs.

2- Domestic absorption.

3- Subsector specific capital.

ﻲﻧﺎﻬﺟ

* )

j j

q1 =q1

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ j=1 2, ( ﺖﺳﺍ

، ﻪﻄـﺳﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﻝﻮﻤﺸﻣ (t2j)

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

، ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ

j j j

q2 =q (2 1+ t2 ) ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ

.

ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ )

ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ،

ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﺲﻳﺪﻧﺍ (t₂j) ﺩﺮﻛ ﻑﺬﺣ ﺍﺭ (

ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻲﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻲﻨﻌﻳ :

) 7

ˆ ˆ ˆ (

q21 =q22 = t <0

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ˆ ،

q21 ˆ ﻭ

q22

ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﺸﻧ ﺎـﻫ

ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﻲـﺗﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻱ

ﻪﻓﺮﻌﺗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ˆ ﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ t .

ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻚﭼﻮﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،

ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺎﺑ ،

q₁₁ ﻭ q12

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

، ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻟﻭ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎـﻫ

ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻁ

، ﺮﻳﺯ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ :

) 8 (

ˆ ˆ ˆ

P q q

ˆ ˆ ˆ

P q q

= q + q

= q + q

1 11 11 12 21

2 12 12 22 22

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

ij ij ij

j

a q q = P

، ﻢﻬﺳ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻲﻣ1

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﺎﻫ

ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ

ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 9

ˆ ˆ ˆ

(

p = - = q -q t P

2

P

1

(

22 21

)

ˆ ˆ

p P P P P P P P P P P

ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ،

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ 2

ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ، ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﻪـﺑ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ .

ﻩﺩﺎـﻬﻧ ﻲﺷﺯﺭﺍ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻣﺎﮕﻨﻫ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺎـﻫ

ژﺎـﺘﻧﻮﻣ ﺪـﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ

، ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺨﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ .

ﻱﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ، ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ

ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﻣ

ﻫﺩ ﺪ :

) 10

{ }

( j jp j

ˆ ˆ ˆ

Z = e p+ e G_G , j= 1 2,

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ejp

jG ﻭ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ e ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻱ ﻭ j

Gˆ ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﮔ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ

.

1- Distributive share.

ﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ، ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ

ﺮـﺑ

ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻮﺷ

ﺩ . ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﺐـﺴﺣ ﺮـﺑ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺎـﻫ

ﻱ

ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ

ij ) (V ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻞﻴﺴﻧﺍﺮﻔﻳﺩ ﻭ ﻲﻣ

ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺍﺭ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ :

) 11 (

x A

ij ij ij ij ij ij

ˆ ˆ ˆ

V = d

^xxx

X ˆ -d

^AAA

A + q V d

^xxx

X X

^AAA

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

ij ij

x ij

ij

q X d = V ﻭ

ij ij

A ij

ij

q A d = V ﺖﺳﺍ

، ﺮـﺑ ﺺﻟﺎـﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ

ij ) V (V ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ

ij ) Xˆ ( ، ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺏﺬﺟ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ij ) Aˆ (

ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱ

ij ) qˆ ( ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ

، ﻲﻠﻣﺍﻮـﻋ ﻪـﭼ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻪﺘـﺴﻳﺍﻭ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ؟ ،

ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ij ) (X ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﺭﺎـﻛ

ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻫ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﮕﺘﺴﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﺐﻴﻗﺭ ﻱ .

ﻥﻮﭼ :

ij ij ij

ˆ ˆ

X = f L >0, i=1 2, j=1 2, (12) ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ fij

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺶﺸﻛ )

ﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪ

ﻱﺍ ( ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ .

ﺒﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻴ

ﻦﻴ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻥﺎـﻴﻣ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻭMIIT

، ﻥﻮـﺴﻠﻧ ﻭ ﻲـﻟﻭﻻ ،

ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭMD1

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ :

) 13 ( IITj ˆ

MD1j TT IIT Gj j j

D

= =

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

j ، IITˆ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭIIT

Gj

ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺪﻳﻮﻟ ﻭ ﻞﺑﻭﺮﮔ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ j

j j

(IIT) ﻲﻣ TT ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ . ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ،

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻛ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ )

(IIT

ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻭ

(NTj = Xj-M )j

ﻚﻴﻜﻔﺗ1

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ . ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ

ij ij ij

ˆ ˆ ˆ

N =V -q ﺎـﺑ ﻭ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱ

) 11 ( ، ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 14 x A (

ij ij ij ij ˆij

ˆ ˆ

N = d X - d A

ﺽﺮﻓ ﻖﺒﻃ N1j>0

j ﻭ N2 <0 ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ

، ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻩ

ﺮﻴﮔ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :

) 15

ij (

i j

TT=

åå

N

1- Net Trade (NT).

ﻝﺎﺣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑMD1

ﺮﻳﺯ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ :

) 16 (

ij ij j j j j

i j j

ˆ ˆ ˆ

MD¹=

åå

y N -

å

y¹N¹ + y² N²

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

ij ij ij

i j

N æ N ö

y = ç ÷

è

åå

ø

، ﺶـﺨﺑ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺯﺍ ij

ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻞﻛ y >₁j 0

j ﻭ y <₂ 0 ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺽﺮﻓ ﻖﺒﻃ ،

ﺐﺒﺳ ﻱﺯﺎﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﻲﻣ

ﻞـﻛ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﮔﺯﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻢﺠﺣ

ij ) N >0 N >0 ( . ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻪﻛ 1

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻭ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ 2

ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ .

ﻪـﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ

ﺽﻭﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ،

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﻼﻤﺟ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻱ

) 16 ( ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ ﻭ ﺩ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ MIIT

ﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 17

ˆ ˆ (

MD1= y2( ₁₁N₁₁-y₂₂N )₂₂

ﺕﻼــﻤﺟ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘــﺳﺍ ﺎــﺑ ﻪــﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ

ﻱ ) 14 ( ﻪــﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺭﺎــﻬﭼ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎــﺒﻋ ﻭ ﻱ

) 12 ( ،

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 17 ( ﻲﺴﻳﻮﻧﺯﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ :

x ˆ Aˆ x ˆ A ˆ

MD1= y d f2éë ¹¹( ^{11 11}L¹¹- d¹¹A )¹¹ - y d f¹¹( ^{22 22}L²²- d²²A )²² ùû ₍₁₈₎ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

x q X ، y d =11 11 ¹¹TT¹¹

A q A ﻭ y d =11 11 ¹¹TT¹¹ ﺖﺳﺍ

. ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ

ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ

ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ :

ˆ ˆ

ˆ ˆ

MD (q X L q X L ) (q A A q A A )

TT

é ù

= ë ^{11 11 11 11}f - ^{22 22 22}f ²² - ^{11 11 11}- ^{22 22 22} û 2

1 (19)

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻠﻤﺟ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻱ

ﻝﻭﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧMD1

ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ

ﺰﻴﻧ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷMIIT

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ . ﻮـﻈﻨﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺭ

، ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻞﻛ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺮﻛ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻪـﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ

ﻚــﻴﻜﻔﺗ ﻲﺘﻌﻨــﺻ ﻦﻴــﺑ ﺺﻴــﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨــﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺺﻴــﺼﺨﺗ ﺩﻮــﺷ

. ﻦﺘﻓﺮــﮔ ﺮــﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎــﺑ

ij Lij L

، l = ﺶﺨﺑ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ij

، ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪـﺑﺎﺟ ﻳﺎـﺟ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻲ

ﺑ ﻪ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 20 ( ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ :

) 20 II (

ij ij j j j j

i j j

ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ

L =

åå

l L -

å

l¹L¹ + l² L²

ﻖﻴﻗﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺗ

ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ، ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ

ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺶﺨﺑ 1

ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﺑ 2

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ :

) 21 II (

ˆ ˆ ˆ

L = l 2 (

11 11

L - l

22

L )

22

ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ) 19 ( ﻭ ) 21 ( ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﺍﺯﻭﺍ ﻪﺑﺎﺟ ﻳﺎﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻲ

ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻱ ) 19 ( ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ q X11 11 11f

ﻭ q X22 22 22f ﺖـﺳﺍ

. ﺶـﺸﻛ fij

ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ ﺰـﻴﻧ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ .ij

ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻪـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎـﻬﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﻫ ،

ﻲﻣ ﺖﺷﻮﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ :

) 22

ij (

ij

ij ij

wL f = q X

ﻞـﻛ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻢﻬـﺳ ﺎـﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﺘﺳ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺖـﺳﺍ

. ﻝﺎـﺣ ، ﻪـﻠﻤﺟ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ MD1

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺍﺭﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

:

ˆ ˆ w ˆ ˆ

(q X L q X L ) (L L L L ) TT 11 11 11 11j - 22 22 22j 22 =TT 11 11- 22 22

2 2

) 23 (

ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ، ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ :

) 24 II (

ˆ ˆ ˆ

L (L L L L )

= L2 -

11 11 22 22

ﺎﺑ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻱ ) 23 ( ﻭ ) 24 ( ، ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘـﺷﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺏﺬـﺟ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ ،

ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺮـﻳﺯ

ﻪﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺪﻳﺁ

:

) 25 MD wL (

II TT Lˆ

1=

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻫﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

) ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ ( ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ

ﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻩﺭ ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ .

ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ،

ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻣ ﻮـﺳ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ

ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺍﺭﺁ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻭ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ )

ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ ( ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ .

ﺯﺍ ﻱﻮـﺳ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ، ﺺﺧﺎـﺷ MIIT

ﻲﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ .

3 - ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻩﺎﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻊـﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺳ

ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ

ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻃISIC ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻱ

85 - 1381 ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻴـﺿﺮﻓ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،

ﻲﻣ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ

ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻱﺍ

ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ، ﻱ

ﺍﺭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ

1ﺪﻫﺩ . ﻝﺪﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﻥﻮـﻣﺯﺁ

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﻴﺿﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺖﺳﺍ :

WITHINnj MIITit PRODit CONSit

OTit (K / L)it WRit HCit

= b + b + b D + b D

+ b + b + b + b

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8

) 26 ( i , , , N

t , , , T

=

= 1 2 1 2

, , N , , T

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

WITHINnj

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎ )2

ﻪﺘـﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ (

،

ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗMIIT ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ

it ،

DPROD

ﻖـﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺪـﻗ ﺕﺍﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺭﻭ ﻱ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

it ، DCONS ﺭﺎﻜﺷﺁ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

،3

OTit

ﻪـﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺯﺎـﺑ ،4

(K / L)it ﺕﺪﺷ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ it ،

ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩWR itﻭ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ HC ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺗ ﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻞﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳ ،

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ) (MIIT

ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻥﻮﺴﻠﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻟﻭﻻ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ )

2002 ( ، ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ

ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻭ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ .

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻭﺭ ، ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ ، ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ

ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ .

ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ ،

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺪﻗ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻱ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ .

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ، ﺘﻧﺍ ﺭﺎﻈ ﻲﻣ ﻲـﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺎـﻳ ﺭﺎﻜـﺷﺁ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺪﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻭﺭ

ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻙﺮﺤﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ

ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺐﺒﺳ

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ .

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻥﻮﭼ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻭ

ﺏﺬﺟ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﻣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ ) ﻮﺗﺮﻓ ، 2005 ( .

ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻥﻭﺰﻓﺍ ،

ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ ﺐﻳﺮﺿ ﺖﻣﻼﻋ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻭﺭ ،

ﺯﺎـﺑ ﺍﺮـﻳﺯ

ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﻱﻮﻗ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺭﺎﺸﻓ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺮﺗ

ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ ﻭ ،

ﻖـﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﻡﺰﻠﺘـﺴﻣ ﺶﻴـﺑ

ﺮـﺗ

1 - ﻝﺎﺳ ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ 1381

ﻩﺎـﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻞـﻴﻟﺩ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻴـﺑ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻦﻛﺭﺎـﻛ ﺮـﻔﻧ ﻩﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺶ

ﻝﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺮﻴﮔﺭﺎﻣﺁ 1380

ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ، 10000 ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺎﮔﺭﺎﻛ

، ﻝﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻟﻭ 1381

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺪـﻌﺑ ﻪـﺑ

ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ 16000

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻠﻔﻏ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻩﺎﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺎـﭼﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻦﻴـﻤﺨﺗ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻢﻘـﺳ ﻭ ﺖﺤـﺻ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﺪﻨﻛ ﻞﻜﺸﻣ . ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻳﺎﭘ ﻝﺎﺳ ﻢﻗﺭ ﻪﺳ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺭﺎﻣﺁ ﻦﻳﺮﺧﺁ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍISIC .

2- Industry-Level Measure of Excess Job Reallocation.

3- Apparent Consumption.

4- Degree of Trade Exposure.

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺖﻴﻌﺿﻭ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻭ

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺪﺷ

) ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ،

2004 ( .

ﺍﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﺪﻨ ﻟﻮﺗ ﻴ ﺪ ژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻱ

ﭘ ﻴ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﺸ ﻱﻻﺎﺑ ﺕﺪﺷ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ

ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ

ﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻴ ﻞ ﻧ ﻴ ﺯﺎ ﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻴ ﻭﺮ ﻱ ﻭ ﺺﺼﺨﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ

ﻪﻛ ﻨﭼ ﻴ ﻦ ﻬﺠﺗ ﻴ ﺗﺍﺰ ﻲ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻧ ﺭﺎـﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ـﻴ

ﻭﺮ ﻱ ﺭﺎـﻛ

ﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﺺﺼﺨﺘﻣ ﻴ

ﺪ ﻮﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱ

ﺩ ﻳ ﺮﮕ ، ﻧﻴ ﻭﺮ ﻱ ﻧ ﺺﺼﺨﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻴ

ﺰ ﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻲ

ﻪـﺑ

ﻨﭼ ﻴ ﻦ ﻬﺠﺗ ﻴ ﺗﺍﺰ ﻲ ﻲﻤﻧ ﺍﻮﺗ ﺪﻧ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺧ ﺺﺼﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ،

ﻧﻴ ﻭﺮ ﻱ ﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻭ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻳ

ﻪ ﻞـﻣﺎﻋ ﻭﺩ

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﻤﻜﻣ )

ﻲﻤﺸﺘﺤﻣ ،

1384 (،

ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺕﺪﺷ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ

ﻱ ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ،

ﺺﺼﺨﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮـﺗ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺐـﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﻃﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﻣ

ﻮﺷ ﺩ .

ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺎﻫ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ ﻘﺣ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ

ﻴ ـﻘ ﻲ

ﺪﻨﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ )

ﺕﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ،

2002 ( ، ﻪﺑ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﺬـﭘ ﻑﺎـﻄﻌﻧﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺑ

ﻳ ﺮ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ

ﺭﺎﻛ ، ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ) ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ( ﺎﻫﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ،

ﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱ ﻧ ﻴ ﻭﺮ ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ) ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ( ﻲﻣ ﻳ ﺪـﺑﺎ ، ﻪـﻛ

ﺘﻧ ﻴ ﻪﺠ ﻱ ﻥﺁ ﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺶ ) ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ( ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ

ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ .

ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ، ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻭﺭ

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ،

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ .

ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻨﭼ ﻮﺋﺎﺘﻴﻟ ﻭ ﻮﻨﻴﺘﺳﺎﻓ ﻪﻛ )

2009 ( ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﻲـﻣ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ـﻣ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ ﻲ

ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻢﻫ ﻥﻮﭼ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻚﻳ .

ﻪﭼ ﺮﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

، ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮـﺗ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻲﻠﻛ ، ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻧﺍ ﻪـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﺎـﺑ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻱ ﻭ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ

ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺺ

ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ ﻱ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ )

ﻮﺋﺎﺘﻴﻟ ﻭ ﻮﻨﻴﺘﺳﺎﻓ ،

2009 ( .

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩ

ﺮﻴﮔ ﺺﻴـﺼﺨﺗ ﻱ ﻩﺭﺎـﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐـﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎـﻣ

n )

WITHINj

( ،

ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ) 2000 ( ﻥﺍﺭﺎـﻜﻤﻫ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ ﻭ )

2004 (،

ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻚـﻳ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻫ ﺎ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﻥﺁ

ﺎـﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ) ( POS

ﻭ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳ ﻥﺁ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ )

:(NEG POSj (Li L )i

i

NEGj Li Li i

=å -

=å - 1 0

1 0 ﺮﮔﺍ

Li Li

Li Li - >

- <

1 0

0

1 0

0 (27 )

ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ،

ﺲﻳﺪﻧﺍ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﻭi j ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻭ ﻪـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ

i ﻭ L⁰

i ﻭ L¹

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻱ

ﺮﺧﺁ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi ﻩﺭﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

ﻦﺘـﺷﺍﺩ ﺎـﺑ

ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ،

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐﺷ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ

ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ : (POSj NEG ) POSj j NEGj

WITHIN jn (POSj NEG )j

+ - -

= + (28 )

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﻞﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻤﻬﺳ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻩ ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐﺷ

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ

ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺹﺎـﺧ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﻞـﻛ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻠﻐﺷ .

ﻩﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻱ

0 ﻭ 1 ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﺸﻧ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﻡﺎﻤﺗ ﻝﺎﺜﻣ ﺎﻫ

ﺶﺨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻪﺑ

ﺭﻮﻃ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ ﻞﻐـﺷ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﻪـﺑ

ﺭﻮـﻃ

ﺎﺷ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻞﻐﺷ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺖﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻫ

. ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ، ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ 1 ﻩﺪـﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻱ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﻫ ﻞﻐﺷ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﻛ

، ﻞﻐـﺷ ﻚـﻳ ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻢﻫ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻥﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻞﻐﺷ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺩ ،

ﺭﺪـﻗ ﺮـﻫ

ﺩﺪﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ 1

ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ، ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﺗ )

ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎـﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ

ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻜﻤﻫ ، 2004

1(.

ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻩ

ﺮـﻴﮔ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱ ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻛﺫ ﻥﺎﻳﺎـﺷ

ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺗ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻫﺩ ﻪ ﻱ 1990 ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺪﺷ ﻩ ﺪﻧﺍ ، ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ

ﻪﻄﻘﻧ ﺎﻳ ﻊﻄﻘﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺩ ﻭ ﺪﻨﻫ ﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺖﻴﻤﻫﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺍﺭ

ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﺮﻴﮔ ﻱ ﻛ ﻨ ﺪﻨ . ﺯﺍ ﻞﻳﺍﻭﺍ ﻫﺩ ﻪ ﻱ 1990 ، ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺪﺷ ﻩ ﺍ ﺪﻧ ﻪـﻛ

ﺯﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺎﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ ﺩﺎﻳ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺎـﻫ

) (MIIT ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻢﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﺷﻮﭘ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺪـﻨﻨﻛ . ﻦﻳﺪـﺑ ﺖـﻬﺟ ،

1 - ﻦﺷﻭﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ،ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻱﺯﺎـﺳﺩﺍﺯﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻙﻮﺷ ﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺹﺎﺧ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ،ﺐﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺪﺷ ﺮﺗ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻀﻌﺑ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﻪـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎـﻫ

. ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ 100

ﻪـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻭ ﺮـﻔﻧ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺲﭘ ﺖﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺍﺯﺎﻣ )

ﺻ ﺭﺩ ﻖﻠﻄﻣ ﺭﺪﻗ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﺮﺴﻛ ﺕﺭﻮ

( ﺮﻔـﺻ ﺩﻮـﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ .

ﺮﻫ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﻪـﻧﻮﮔ

ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﺒﺟ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻥﺎـﻤﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﻴﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻳﺆﻣ ﻮﻐﺸﻣ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻲﻣ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻝ

ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ،ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﻔﮔ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﻞﻳﺪـﻌﺗ ﻱ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ .

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻫﺎﺷ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﻳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻲﻟﻭ )

POS>0, NEG=0 (

ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﺎـﻳ ﻭ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﻝﺎﻐﺘﺷﺍ )

NEG>0, POS=0 (

ﺶﻴـﺑ ﻝﺎﻐﺘـﺷﺍ ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺍﺯﺎـﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺮـﺗ

ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ . ﺭﺩ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ،ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ،ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎـﻛ ﺵﺯﻮـﻣﺁ ﻞـﻴﺒﻗ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻱ

،ﻲﻨﻳﺰﮕﻳﺎـﺟ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻦﻴﻣﺄـﺗ ﻪـﺑ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺭ ﺖـﺳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺎﻫﺪـﻣﺁﺭﺩ ،ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺝﺭﺎـﺧ ﻩﺩﺭ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻳ ﻚﻠﻬﺘﺴﻣ ﻱ

ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ) ﻱﺭﺎﻜﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻳﺍﺰﻣ ﺖﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ (

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ .

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ، ﺯﺍ ﻞـﺿﺎﻔﺗ ﻣ ﻪـﺒﺗﺮ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ﻭ

ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ) DX ﻭ DM (

ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

1 .

ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ

، ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﻬﻟﻭﺮﺑ

A) Bj

( ﻭ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

:

) 29

j j (

Aj

j j

X M

B

X M

1 D - D

= - D + D

ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

j jﻥﺁ (M )X ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ

ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎـﺻ ) ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ( ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺭﺩ ـﻧﺎﺧﺭﺎﻛ

ﻪ ﻱﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ j . ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﺮـﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻚـﻳ ﻭ ﺮﻔﺻ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻲـﻣ

ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ . ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﺮﻔـﺻ ﺮﮕﻧﺎـﺸﻧ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﺕﺭﺎـﺠﺗ

ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ

2ﻱﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺹﺎﺧ

ًﻼﻣﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﺳﺍ ، ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻚـﻳ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ

ﻩﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻱ ﺁ ﻥ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻴﺷﺎﺣ ﻱﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻉﻮـﻧ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ) ﻲﺨﺳﺍﺭ ، 1386 ( . ﺯﺍ ﻲﮔﮋﻳﻭ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﻮﻛﺬﻣ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻱ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻞـﻛ

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﻮﺷ ﺩ .

ﺭﺎﻜﺷﺁ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

it ) DCONS (

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻩ

ﺮﻴﮔ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ) ﻭ ﻝﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻛ

ﺍﻮﻠﻴﺳ ، 2006 ( .

j j j j j j

j

j j j j j j

(OUTPUT M X ) (OUTPUT M X )

CONS (OUTPUT M X ) (OUTPUT M X )

+ - - + -

D =

+ - + + -

1 0

0 1

1

2 ( 30)

jﻪــﻛ OUTPUT ﻩﺪــﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎــﺸﻧ

ﻱ ﻭ ﺕﻻﻮــﺼﺤﻣ ﺪــﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺵﺯﺭﺍ Mj

ﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ Xj

ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﺖﺳﺍj

. ﻢﻫ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ

ﻪﺟﺭﺩ ﻱ ﻉﻮـﻤﺠﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺎـﺠﺗ ﻥﺩﻮـﺑ ﺯﺎﺑ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ .

ﻪﺑ ﻩﻭﻼﻋ ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻧﺎـﺴﻧﺍ

ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﻼﻏﺎﺷ ﻞﻛ ﻪﺑ ﺮﻫﺎﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ،

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﺮـﻴﮔ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻱ .

ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ

ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺍ ﻪﻧﺍﺮﺳ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳ .

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﮓﻨﻫﺎﻤﻫ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻱ ,

ﻲـﻤﻗﺭ ﺖـﺸﻫ ﻭ ﻲﻤﻗﺭ ﺶﺷ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻛ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ

3HS ﻲﻤﻗﺭ ﻪﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻛ ﺎﺑ )ISIC

ﻡﻮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺮﻳﻭ (

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻖـﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﺎـﻫ

ﻱ

ﻲﻤﻗﺭ ﻪﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﺪﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﻣﻼﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻮﻬﻤﺟ ﻙﺮﻤﮔ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺻ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﺪﺒﺗISIC

ﻭ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ

ﻪﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻱ ) 29 ( ، ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻪﻴـﺷﺎﺣ

ﻱﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺒـﺳﺎﺤﻣ

1 - ﺶﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﺋﺰﺟ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺗ

ﻲﺨﺳﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ) 1386 ( ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﻌﺟﺍﺮﻣ .

2- Marginal trade.

3- Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System(HS).