CANH TRANH DjA CHJNH TRj TRUNG MY NHIN TUT TPP VA AIIB
D6THIANH-
Tom tat: Mac dii cudc chiin thuang mgi vd cdng nghi thdng tin giira My vd Trung Qudc hien dang Id chu di rdt dugc quan ldm, tuy nhiin cdn cd mdt cugc chiin ktnh ti khdng kem phdn quyit Hit khdc da dien ra trudc do giira hat siiu cuomg dirng ddu the gidi ndy, do Id cupc chiin gldnh dnh hudng vd vl thi tren phuong dien thiit lap cdc nguyen tdc ktnh ti qudc ti. Cd thi ndi, viic thiit lap cdc nguyen tdc kinh ti qudc ti chinh id diiu kiin cdn ciia bdt cir qudc gia ndo mudn nhdm din quyin ldnh dgo Ihi gidi trong thi ky XXI. Bdi viit phdn tich ro bdn chdt cua TPP vd AIIB, tir do ly gidi nguyin nhdn lgi sgo not rdng hai dinh chi ndy dgt diin cho quan he ddi lap My - Trung trin phirong diin thiit lap cdc nguyen tdc kinh ti, dgc biit Id tgt Chdu A - Thdt Binh Duong.
Tir kh6a: My, Trung Qu6c, TPP, AIIB, Cupc chiSn kinli ti
7
hyc chit Hiep dinh Doi tac xuyen Thai Binh Ducmg (TPP) va Ngan hang DJu tu ca sa ha tSng Chau A (AIIB) thuoc hai ITnh vtrc hoan toan khac nhau. TPP la mpt thoa thuan thitcmg mai ttr do giiJa 12 qu6c gia viing long chao Thai Binh Ducmg, con AIIB la mpt ngan hang da phuong hS trg cho kiSn thiSt ca sa ha ting tai cac nuac dang phat tridn Chau A. Mac dii vay, ca hai dinh che kinh tk nay ien ciing ra doi tai Diln dan Kinh ti Chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC), nai mot s6 nam gin day da tro thanh "san khiu lan" the hien tuong quan d6i lap giu-a Trung Qudc va My. Khu vtrc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong hien la trung tam phat triin cua kinh t l thi gioi. Viec thiet lap* ThS., Vien Nghifin ciiu Dong Bac A
nhCmg dinh chl se lam nen cac nguyen tic kinh tl khu vuc chinh la diiu ki$n tien quyit dii vol bit cu quic gia nao muon hudng den quyin lanh dao trong thi ky XXI. NhOng phan tich duai day se lam ro ve ban chat va tuang quan dii lap sau sac ctia hai dinh che kinh t l TPP va AIIB.
Nhan dien TPP
Khuon khi dam phan thuong mai ttr do da phuang TPP la mpt dinh chl hpi nhap kinh tl giiia 12 quic gia Chau A - Thai Binh Duong do My dl xuang. Thang 1/2017, theo chinh sach mai cua T5ng thing die cii Donald Trump, My da chinh thirc rut khoi hiep dinh. Thang 11/2017, cac thanh vien con lai da thing nhit dii ten thanh Hiep djnh D6i tac Toan dien va Tiin bp xuyen Thai Binh Duong (CPTPP) vai nhOrng npi dung
NGHIEN CflU 06N0 BflC H, $611(225) 11-2019
Nghien cicu khoaJlSS-
c6t 15i cua TPP. Bai viit nay dl cap toi "TPP ban dau" gom da> du 12 thanh vien. trong do CO M>
TPP ban dau quy tu mpt khu \'irc co dan s6 hon 800 trieu nguoi, gin 40% GDP toan cau, khong bao gom Trung Quoc. La tieu diem quan trpng cua kinh te. thuang mai Chau A - Thai Binh Duong va thi gidi, TPP dupc ky vpng se tao nen budc tien quan trpng nhat doi vdi ty do hda thucmg mai linh ttr sau Vong dam phan Urugua> cua To chtic Thuong mji Thi gidi (WTO) (1986 den 1994) - sy kien dam phan thuong mai toan cau ldn nhat tir trudc den nay. Ke tir khi thanh lap, WTO van chua nang cap dupc cac quy djnh ve dau tu va thuong mai, trong khi Vong dam phan Doha den nay van be tac.
Bdi viy cd the ndi, TPP neu hoan tat se dat nen mdng eho mot trat tu thuang mai mdi ma WTO va cac the che tien than da khdng the lam duac trong hon niia the ky qua.
Han ntta, con dupc gpi la "thda thuan thuong mai the ky" nen TPP duac ky vpng se trd thanh md hinh mdi cho cac thda thuan thuang mai uu dai (PTA) tren the gidi. PTA the he trudc (the ky XX) ve co ban nham tao dieu kien cho hang hda trao doi qua bien gidi vupt qua hang rao thue quan. Nhung TPP ngoai ra con giai quyet ca nhirng van de mdi nhu dau tu, djch vu tai chinh, vien thdng, thuong mai dien ttr, cac bien phap doi khang, sd hitu tri tue, canh tranh, tang nang luc san xuit, tieu chuan hieu suat lao dpng, mdi trudng... do \'a\' cd kha nang thiic day cac nude, dac biet la Trung Qudc tien hanh nhimg cai each thi ttudng va tham gia cac cam kit ty do hda kinh te. thuang mai cao han.
V nghia chien lu-gc cfla TPP Dl nim rd dupc ban chit, ben <^f'^\
nghia kinh tl don thuin khong thi khdng e cap din y nghia chiln lupc ciia TPP- Theo bao cao kit qua 3 nam txiin khai chien luac tai can bing Chau A cua U> ban Ddi ngoat Thuong Nien My ngay 17/4/2014, TPP chinh la nin tang cua chinh sach "xoay true' hay
"tai can bSng" cda My.' Cuu Bp trudng Qudc phdng My Ashton Carter da nhan manh, TPP khdng chi la mpt phan quan trpng cua chinh sach xoay tryc ma ve mat chiln luge cdn cd gia trj nhieu han so vdi viec My cd them mdt ham dpi tau san bay tai Chau A. Cyu Tdng thing My Barack Obama tham chi khdng up md vl viec TPP chinh la cdng cu dl ddi trpng vdi Trung Qudc. Ong Obama nhiiu lin khing dinh rang Chau A- Thai Binh Ducmg vin se trd thanh mgt khdi kinh te dil cd My hay khdng. My cd the dan dau, hoac dung sang mpt ben. The gidi da thay doi va cac nguyen tac, luat le cOng dang thay ddi cimg vdi nd. Neu My khdng viet nen nhiing nguyen tac, luat le mdi thi Trung Qudc se lam va dieu nay chac chan se lam suy yeu vai trd lanh dao cua My tren toan the gidi.^
Ngoai ra, TPP ciing chinh la biiu hien cu the ve cam ket cua My ddi vdi khu vyc Chau
U.S Government Printing Ofnce (2014) "Re - balancing the Rebalance: Resourcing U.S. diplomatic strategy m the Asia - Pacific region", United States Senate. One Hundred Thirteenth Congress Second Session. April 17, 2 0 , 4 . h , t p s : / / w w w i r e i 8 „ senate
gov/imo;media;doc;872692.pdf. ^ciiaie.
= Obama, B (2016). "The TPP would let America not China lead the way on global Uade", Washmgion 'pos hnp:/'www washinglonposl.com/opinions/presidcm- obama-the-tpp-wouldlel-america-not-China-lead-the w on-global-tradc/2016/0502/680540e4-OfdO-l le6-93,, "*' 5092l721165d_story.html.
NQHIEN CflU OdNQ BflC fl, s 6 11(225) tMoiV
A. Brad Glosserman, Giam ddc Diln dan Thai Binh Duong, Trung tam Nghien ctru Chinh sach va Chien lupc (CSIS) da nhan xet, la mdt bd phan then chdt trong chinh sach ngoai giao cua My, TPP ndi kit My chat che han vdi cac nude trong khu vyc.
Qua ndi ket ve kinh te va chinh trj. My danh di mdt tin hieu dd eac ddng minh cung nhu cac djch thii biet rang hp dang that sy doan kit.
Viec sti dung PTA dl tang cudng mdi quan he chiln luge cua nhieu nude ldn, trong dd cd My la mdt each lam tuong ddi phd bien. Cyu dai dien thuang mai My Robert Zoellik timg phat bieu: "Vdi My PTA la mdt hudng uu tien bdi day ehinh la sy hgp tac trong cac van de ddi ngoai va an ninh". Ngay ca chuyen gia ve thuang mai ty do Jagdish Bgawati cung nhan xet "TPP ve CO ban phyc vu lgi Ich eac qudc gia lo ngai vi sy hung hang cua Trung Qudc, nhtrng nude dang tim kiem khdng chi sy gia tang thucmg mai, ma quan trpng hon la an ninh chinh trj". Cdn theo Hdi ddng Quan he ddi ngoai My, nham ddi phd vdi mot Trung Qudc dang trdi d^y, My can phai xay dyng mpt loat mdi quan he mdi vdi cac ddng minh va ddi tac cd cung tu tudng d Chau A khdng bao gdm Trung Qudc, dua ra cac chinh sach hifu qua dl ddi phd vdi viec Trung Qudc sir dyng tran lan cac cdng cu dja kinh te d Chau A. Ciing theo hdi ddng nay, lien minh My - Chau A can dupc khdi ddng de ddi phd vdi sy "bat nat" ciia Trung Qudc vdi cac lang giing la ddng minh, ban be cua nude My theo each thiic phii hpp vdi nguyen tac qudc tl mpt each ddc lap lin hpp tac chien luge, ddi khi se dugc hd trg mgt each cd he thdng
bdi My. Hien khdng mdt sire manh don le nao - ke ca My - ed thi ty ddi Upng sire manh va anh hudng eua Trung Qudc. Dl bao dam su can bang, nhtmg qudc gia "cilng chung tu tudng" can doan kit vdi nhau trong viec tao ra mdt trat ty khu vye dya tren cac nguyen tac.
Nhan dien AIIB
Ngan hang Diu tu Co sd Ha ting Chau A (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AIIB) la mdt td chOrc tai chinh phat triin qudc te nam trong nhdm Ngan hang Phit trien Da phuang (Multilateral Development Bank - MDB) tuang ty Quy Tiin t? qudc tl (IMF) do My din dit va Ngan hang Phat triin Chau A (ADB) do My va Nhat Ban chii dao. Sang kien thanh lap AIIB da dupc Tong Bi thu Dang Cdng san, Chii tjch nude Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh cdng bd lin diu tai APEC Indonesia 2013. Khi chinh thirc cdng bd tai APEC Bic Kinh thang 11/2014, Trung Qudc da van ddng dugc ban 21 qudc gia ky tuyen bd thanh lap. Den thang 6/2017 tdng sd thanh vien AIIB da nang len 80 qudc gia.
Thang 9/2017 AIIB da vugt qua ADB tris thanh td ehiie MDB ldn thir hai the gidi, chi sau Ngan hang Thd gidi (WB).
Myc tieu ciia AIIB la thtic day phat triin kinh te thdng qua dau tit co sd ha tang khu vyc Chau A va xa han. Cac dy an ma AIIB tm tien cap vdn thudc cac llnh vyc trpng yiu nhu nang lugng, giao thdng van tai va viin thdng... Vdi ngudn vdn phap djnh 100 ty USD, phin ldn do Trung Qudc ddng gdp, AIIB se bd sung vdi cac MDB hien cd de cimg giai quyet cac nhu caji vdn vay co sd ha tang tai nhimg qudc gia dang phat frien Chau A.
NCHltN Cdo CdNQ BflC fl, sd 11(225) 1^2019
Nghien cicu khoaJlSS^
cdt 15i ciia TPP. Bai viit nay dl cap tdi "TPP ban dau" gdm da> dii 12 thanh vien. Uong ddcd NK.
TPP ban dau quy tu mdt khu vyc cd dan sd hon 800 trieu nguai, gin 40% GDP toan cau, khdng bao gdm Trung Qudc. La tieu diem quan u-png cua kinh te. thuang mai Chau A - Thai Binh Duong va thi gidi, TPP dugc ky vgng se tao nen budc tien quan ttgng nhat ddi \ di ty do hda thuang mai tinh tCr sau Vdng dam phan Uruguay eua Td chiic Thuang mai Thi gidi (WTO) (1986 din 1994) - sy kien dam phan thucmg mai toan ciu ldn nhat tir trudc den nay. Ke tir khi thanh l^p, WTO van chua nang cap dupc cac quy djnh ve dau tu va thucmg mai, trong khi Vdng dam phan Doha den nay van be tae.
Bdi vay cd the ndi, TPP neu hoan tat se dat nen mdng cho mpt trat ty thucmg mai mdi ma WTO va cac thi che tien than da khdng the lam dugc trong ban nira the ky qua.
Hon nira, cdn dugc ggi la "thda thuan thuong mgi the ky" nen TPP dugc ky vpng se ttd thanh md hinh mdi cho cac thda thuan thucmg mai uu dai (PTA) tren the gidi. PTA the he trudc (the ky XX) ve ca ban nham tao dieu kien eho hang hda frao ddi qua bien gidi vupt qua hang rao thue quan. Nhung TPP ngoai ra cdn giai quyet ca nhimg van de mdi nhu dau tu, djch vu tai chinh, vien thdng, thuang mai dien tir, cac bien phap ddi khang, sd hiiu tri tue, eanh ttanh, tang nang luc san xuit, tieu chuan hieu suat lao dpng, mdi trudng... do \ay cd kha nang friiic day cac nude, dac biet la Trung Qudc tien hanh nhiing cai each thj trudng va friam gia cac cam kit ty do hda kinh te. thucmg mai cao hon.
V nghia chien lirp'c ciia TPP
D I nim rd duge ban chit, ben '^f^\
nghia kinh t l dan thuin khdng the khdng e cap din < nghia chiln lupc cua TPP. Theo bao cao kit qua 3 nSra ttiln khai chien luge tai can bing Chau A cua iU ban Ddi ngoai Thugng \ ien M> ngay 17/4/2014. TPP chinh la nin tang ciia chinh sach "xoay true" hay
"tai can bing" ctia My.' Cyu Bg ttudng Qudc phdng My Ashton Carter da nhan manh, TPP khdng ehi la mdt phan quan ttgng ciia chinh sach xoay ttye ma ve m?t chiln luge cdn cd gia tri nhieu hon so vdi viee My ed them mdt ham dpi tau san bay tai Chau A. Cyu Tdng thdng My Barack Obama tham chi khdng iip md ve vice TPP chinh la cdng eu dl ddi trpng vdi Trung Qudc. Ong Obama nhiiu lin khing djnh rang Chau A- Thai Binh Duong vin se ttd thanh mdt khdi kinh te dti cd My hay khdng. My cd the dan dau, hoac dirng sang mpt ben. The gidi da thay ddi va cac nguyen tac, luat le ciing dang thay ddi ciing vdi nd. Niu My khdng viit nen nhinig nguyen tac, luat le mdi thi Trung Qudc se lam va dieu nay chac chan se lam suy yeu vai trd lanh dao cua My tren toan the gitii.^
Ngoai ra, TPP eung chinh la biiu hien cu the vl cam kit cua My ddi vdi khu vyc Chau
U.S. Government Printing Office (2014) "Re - balancing the Rebalance: Resourcing U.S. diplomatic strategy m the Asia ^ Pacific region", u„i,ed states Senate, One Hundred Thineenth Congress Second Session, April 17, 2014. https://www.foreign.senate gov/imo/media/doc/872692.pdf.
= Obama. B (2016), "The TPP ™uld let America not China lead the way on global trade", Washlngion Pos, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president- obama-the-ipp-wouldlet-america-nol-China-iead-ihe wa on-global-trade/2016/0502/680540e4-0fd0-l le6-93ae 5092I72II65dstory.html.
NQHIEN Cda OONQ BflC fl. s6 I l ( 2 2 5 n v ! i ^
A. Brad Glosserman, Giam ddc Dien dan Thai Binh Duong, Trung tam Nghien ctm Chinh sach va Chien luge (CSIS) da nhan xet, la mdt bd phan then chdt trong chinh sach ngoai giao cua My, TPP ndi kit My chat che han vdi cac nude trong khu vyc.
Qua ndi ket ve kinh te va chinh tri. My danh di mdt tin hieu de cac ddng minh cung nhu eie djch thu biet rang hg dang that sy doan kit.
Viee su dung PTA de tang eudng mdi quan he chien luge eila nhieu nude ldn, trong dd cd My la mdt each lam tuong ddi phi bien. Cyu dai dien thuong mai My Robert Zoellik timg phat bieu: "Vdi My PTA la mgt hudng uu tien bdi day chinh la su hgp tac trong cac van de ddi ngoai va an ninh". Ngay ca chuyen gia ve thuong mai ty do Jagdish Bgawati eung nhan xet "TPP ve CO ban phuc vu lgi ich cac qudc gia lo ngai vi sy hung hang ctia Trung Qudc, nhirng nude dang tim kiem khdng ehi sy gia tang thuang mai, ma quan trgng han la an ninh chinh trj". Cdn theo Hdi ddng Quan he ddi ngoai My, nham ddi phd vdi mdt Trung Qudc dang trdi day, My can phai xay dyng mgt logt mdi quan he mdi vdi cac ddng minh va ddi tAe cd cung tu tudng d Chau A khdng bao gdm Tnmg Qudc, dua ra cac chinh sach hi|u qua de ddi phd vdi viec Trung Qudc sir dung ttan lan cac cdng cu dia kinh te d Chau A. CQng theo hgi ddng nay, lien minh My - Chau A can dupc khdi dpng de ddi phd vdi sy "bat nat" cua Trung Qudc vdi cac lang giing la ddng minh, ban be ciia nude My theo each thiic phu hpp vdi nguyen tic qudc tl mgt each ddc lap lan hpp tac chien luge, ddi khi se dugc hd ttg mgt each cd he thdng
bdi M\. Hien khdng mdt siic manh don le nao - ke ea My - cd thi ty ddi ttgng sire manh va anh hudng cda Trung Qudc. Dl bao dam sy can bang, nhirng qudc gia "cilng chung tu tudng" ein doan kit vdi nhau ttong vice tao ra mdt trat ty khu vyc dya tten cae nguyen tae.
Nhan dien AIIB
Ngan hang Dau tu Co sd Ha ting Chau A (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AIIB) la mdt td chirc tai chinh phat triin qudc te nam trong nhdm Ngan hang Phat trien Da phuong (Multilateral Development Bank - MDB) tuong ty Quy Tiin te qudc tl (IMF) do My din dit va Ngan hang Phat trien Chau A (ADB) do My va Nhat Ban chii dao. Sang kien thanh lap AIIB da duge Tong Bi thu Dang Cgng san, Chii tjch nude Trung Qudc Tap Can Binh cdng bd lan dau tai APEC Indonesia 2013. Khi chinh thirc cdng bd tai APEC Bie Kinh thang 11/2014, Trung Qudc da van ddng dugc hon 21 qudc gia ky tuyen bd thanh lap. Din thang 6/2017 tong sd thanh vien AIIB da nang len 80 qudc gia.
Thang 9/2017 AIIB da vugt qua ADB ttd thanh td chile MDB ldn thii hai the gidi, chi sau Ngan hang The gidi (WB).
Mue tieu cua AIIB la thuc diy phat trien kinh t l thdng qua diu tu ca sd ha ting khu vyc Chau A va xa ban. Cac dy an ma AIIB uu tien cap vdn thudc cae llnh vye trgng yeu nhu nang lugng, giao thdng van tai va vien thdng... Vdi ngudn vdn phap djnh 100 ty USD, phin ldn do Trung Qudc ddng gdp, AIIB se bd sung vdi cac MDB hien cd de cimg giai quyet cac nhu ca.u vdn vay co sd ha ting tai nhiing quoc gia dang phat trien Chau A.
NQHIEN Cdu DdNQ BflC fl, s d 11(225) 11-2019
Nshien cicu khoa hpc
T^i Chau A, xay dyng \a nang cap eo sa ha ting dang la mdt ddi hdi hit siic hue duet.
Dil ADB va WB da ddng gdp rit nhieu trong viec eip vdn, song nhimg dil chl hien hanh nay vin chua dap ting dugc quy md qua Ion vl nhu ciu ddi vdi co sd ha ting. Giai phap giiip hd tto cho con sd 8.000 t> USD thieu hut theo tinh toan ciia ADB cho linh vyc ha ting nhu AIIB se cd y nghia rit ldn ddi vdi sy tang trudng ciia cac nin kinh te khu vyc.
Thdng qua kit ndi va thiic diy hdi nhap kmh tl, sang kiln nay s5 giiip thu hep khoang eieh thu nhap gitta cac nude cung nhu duy tri vai ttd ciia cac nin kinh tl Chau A nhu la dpng lyc chinh ciia tang trudng toan eau ttong thdi gian tiep theo.
Y nghia chien lirgc ciia AIIB Tit nhien, dgng co cua Trung Qudc khi lap ra mpt ngan hang tti gia ien tdi 1.000 ty USD khdng chi don thuin la "tir thien".
Trudc hit AIIB sg giiip tai phan bd sd dy ttii ngoai hdi khdng Id gin 4.000 ty USD cua Trung Qudc vao llnh vyc co sd ha ting vdi nhiiu lgi ich hiia hen, mang lai nhieu co hdi tieu thy tiim nang cho cac doanh nghiep thep va xi mang dang khd sd vi thira nang suit ctia Trung Qudc, md ra nhung thj ttirdng rdng ldn cho cac doanh nghiep dudng sit, nhiet dien... eua nude nay. Mdt dgng lyc khac nua la Trung Qudc cd thi cting cd vj tri ttnng tam ttong mang ludi san xuat khu vyc va thi gidi, chia khda cua tang trudng kinh tl ttong vai thap ky tdi. Trung Qudc hiiu ring khi nin kinh te trudng thanh va thu nhap dau ngudi tang Ien, cac nganh cdng nghiep cd mdc thu nhap thap vdn thtic day tang trudng kinh te trong nude se di chuyen sang cac nude kem phat trien hcm, nai co gia
nhan edng re han. Bdi vay, trudc khi dieu d6 xav ra. Trung Qudc cin sap xep mdt chd dimg v-yng chic d vj tti trung tam cua mang san "xuit. Bing each nay, trong tuang lai Truno Qudc cd thi nim giO dugc nhimg thj phin°cd gia ttj gia tang cao hon ttong mang san xuit va chuoi cung ling toan cau.
Them vao dd, ding sau nhung ly do kinh tl don thuin, AIIB cdn cd nhtrng dpng co chiln lupc khac.
Thil nhdt, AIIB se giiip Trung Qudc diy nhanh hon nila tdc do quoc te hda ddng nhan dan te. Vdi "vien gach diu tien" la AIIB va ttgng tam hoat ddng la linh -vyc co sd ha ting, myc tieu chiln Itigc diy nhanh qudc tl hda ddng nhan dan te ciing dugc Trung Qudc hudng tdi. Theo bao cao nam 2014 cua SWIFT, Deutsche Bank, ddng nhan dan te nam 2013 da vuan len ttd thanh ddng tiin thd hai tren thi gidi dugc su dung rdng rai nhit trong thanh toan thucmg mai.
Tha hat, Trung Quoc mudn canh tranh vdi he thdng Bretton Woods do My lap nen.
Sau Chiln ttanh Thi gidi thil hai. My ciing vdi cac ddng minh da hinh thanh nen ttat ty kinh t l the gidi (che dp Bretton Woods) vol cac djnh chl tai chinh va phat ttiln, dl tir
"trat ty dya tren luat dinh" (rules-based- order) nay anh hudng den kinh te the gidi.
Trat ty do My dan dau da mang lai lgi ich cho My. IMF dugc tao ra tiham duy tri che dp Bretton Woods chi co My nim quyen phii quyet. Tai Chau A, Nhat Ban va My cSng cung dgc quyen quyen phii quyet ttong ADB, Trong khi do, vai tro va anh hudng cda Trung' Qudc trong cac dinh che tai chinh lau ddi nhu ADB hay IMF lai ctrc ky nhd. The nhung thdi thi da thay ddi, GDP danh nghia
'-• "•"• noNH BBC fl. sd 11(225) 1I-2W
cua Trung Qudc hien da chiem tdi 12% GDP the gidi. Trong ljch sii chua timg cd mdt chinh phii nao kiem soat tryc tiep nhieu ciia cai nhu gidi lanh dao cua Trung Qudc hien nay. Do dd khdng ngae nhien khi siic manh kinh te gia tang, Trung Qudc se mudn sir dung dieu nay de thuc diy cac myc tieu chien luge. Nham nang cao vj the tai chinh qudc te ciia minh, Trung Qudc da yeu ciu thay ddi thanh phan quyen bieu quyet trong IMF va ADB nhtmg khdng dugc My va Nhat Ban chip nhan. AIIB ra ddi vdi su diiu phdi cua Trung Qudc da trd thanh ddi trgng ldn ciia cac djnh che tai chinh va phat triin lau ddi dd. Try sd cua AIIB dugc dat tai Bic Kinh va Thdng dde ngan hang la ngudi Trung Qudc - dng Kim Lap Quan. Trong sd cac nude thanh vien AIIB chi cd minh Trung Qudc nim tten 25% sd phieu. Theo quy dinh, nhiing dy luat quan trpng nhat mudn dupc thdng qua phai cd 75% phieu bau can thiet, bdi vay ma chi ed Trung Qudc la nude cd quyen phii quyet va nam vai trd chi phdi ddi vdi AIIB. Vdi AIIB, Trung Qudc da cd the thach thilc vj the ciia My tten trudng qudc te ttong vai ttd dan dit cae qudc gia khac theo
"ttat ty dua tren luat djnh" ma My thiet lap tir tnrdc vdi mdt "Beijing Woods" do Trung Qudc tao ra.
Thi ba, trong viec thanh lap AIIB, Bac Kinh edn ap u mdt tham vgng sau xa la hien thyc hda sang kien "Vanh dai va Con dudng" kit ndi Ddng A vdi Chau Au, Chau Phi va Trung Ddng, gianh the chu dao ttong vi$c djnh hinh mdt ttat ty kinh te chinh trj qudc tl mdi. Khau hieu "Giac mdng Trung Hoa" cila Chd tich Tap da dugc cy the hda vdi mpt kl hoach hanh ddng mang ten Sang
kien "Mpt vanh dai, mdt con dudng"
(OBOR, ten gpi trudc day cua "Vanh dai va Cpn dudng" BRI). OBOR/BRl la chinh sach ddi ngoai quan trgng nhit ma dng Tip vin ggi la "Du an thi ky". Sang kiln nay cho thiy ring dng Tap la ngudi theo dudi dudng ldi ddi ngoai chu ddng di tien phong, trai vdi tu tudng "giiu minh chd thdi" cua dng Dang Tieu Binh trudc day. Muc tieu eiia BRI theo md ta ciia dng Tap la thiic diy hgi nhap khu vyc, day manh thuong m^i va tang trudng kinh te. Mgt sd nha phan tich thjm chi cdn so sanh BRI vdi Ke hoach Marshall ciia My sau Chien tranh The gidi thir hai.
Dat Trung Qudc vao vj tti trung tam, kl hoach bao phii khu vyc cd dan sd 4,4 ty ngudi va tong GDP 21.000 ty USD (khoang 1/3 GDP toan eau) nay cd the djnh hinh l^i kinh te toan cau trong the ky XXI bing vifc ket ndi cac nen kinh te A - Au - Phi thdng qua mdt mang ludi giao thdng va co sd ha tang rdng ldn chua timg cd.
Tuong ty nhidu "nude ldn" khac ttong dd cd My, vdi Trung Qudc viec de xuat cac sang kien thudng hudng den da mye tieu, ndi each khac la lgi ich kinh te, ehinh tri, an ninh duge Idng ghep. BRI nam ttong mdt ke hoach tdng the dupc gpi la "Chien luge phdi hgp" (Cooperative strategy) cua Trung Qudc.
Theo Bao "Bim dien Hoa Nam budi sang", BRI kit hgp vdi AIIB va SRF (Quy Con dudng Ta lua) se trd thanh mdt co che ddng bd giiip cac cdng ty cua Trung Qudc xay dung cac tuyen dudng bp, dudng sat, cang biln va nhirng he thong dudng dien ttii dai khip Chau A, Chau Phi va Trung Ddng.
Mang ludi co sd ha tang nay cudi ciing sS lien kit ba luc dja bing he thing dudng sit
NQHIEN Cdu DONQ BflC fl. l6 11(225) 11-2019
Nghien cicuJchodJlSi
T^i Chau A. xay dyng \a nang cap ca sd ha tang dang la mdt ddi hdi hit siic bile thiit.
Dti ADB \ a WB da ddng gdp rit nhiiu ttong viee cap vdn, song nhtmg the che hien hanh nay van ehua dap dng dugc quy md qua ldn ve nhu cau ddi vdi co sd ha lang. Giai phap gitip hd trp cho con sd 8.000 t\ USD thiiu hut theo tinh toan ciia ADB cho llnh vyc ha tang nhu AIIB se ed y nghia rat ldn ddi \di sy tang trudng ciia cac nen kinh te khu vyc Thdng qua ket ndi va thiic day hpi nhap kinh te, sang kien nay s6 giup thu hep khoang each thu nhap gitta cdc nude cung nhu duy tri vai ttd cua cac ndn kinh te Chau A nhu la dgng lyc chinh ciia tang trudng toan cau ttong thdi gian tiep theo.
Y nghia chien Ivtifc ctia AIIB Tit nhien, dpng ca ciia Trung Qudc khi l$p ra mgt ngan hang tri gia ien tdi 1.000 ty USD khdng chi don thuan la "ttr thien".
Trudc hit AIIB sS giup tai phan bd sd dy tru ngoji hdi khdng Id gin 4.000 ty USD eua Trung Qudc vdo llnh vye ca sd ha tang vdi nhieu It^i ich hu'a h?n, mang lai nhieu ca hpi tieu thy tiem nang cho eac dpanh nghiep thep va xi mang dang khd sd vi thua nang suit ciia Trung Qudc, md ra nhttng thj trudng rpng ldn cho cae doanh nghiep dudng sit, nhiet dien... ciia nude nay. Mdt dpng lyc khac ntta la Trung Qudc cd the ciing cd vj tri trung tam ttong mang ludi san xuat khu vye va thi gidi, chia khda ciia tang tnrdng kinh tl frong vai thap ky tdi. Trung Qudc hiiu ring khi nen kinh te trudng thanh va thu nhap dau ngudi tang ien, eac nganh cdng nghidp cd mile thu nhap thap vdn thuc day tang trudng kinh te ttong nude se di chuyin sang eac nude kem phat frien hcm, nai cd gia
nhan cdng re ban. Bdi \a\. trudc khi dieu do
\a> ra. Trung Qudc cin sip xcp ""?' '^"'' dimg \-ttng ehic d vi tri ttung tam cua mang san xuit. Bing each na>. trong tuong lai Tmng Qudc cd thi nim gitt dugc nhttng thi phin'cd gia tri gia tang cao hon trong mang san xuit va chudi cung img loan cau.
Them vao dd. ding sau nhttng ly do kinh tl dan thuin, AIIB cdn cd nhung dgng ca chien luge khac.
Thii nhdt. AIIB se giiip Tmng Qudc day nhanh han nua tdc dg qudc tl hda ddng nhan dan te. Vdi "vien gach diu tien" la AIIB va ttgng tam hoat ddng la llnh vye co sd ha.
ting, muc tieu chiln luge diy nhanh qudc te hda ddng nhan dan te cung dugc Tmng Qudc hudng tdi. Theo bao cao nam 2014 ciia SWIFT, Deutsche Bank, ddng nhan dan te nam 2013 da vuan ien ttd thanh ddng tien Uui hai tren thi gidi dugc su dung rdng rai nhit ttong thanh toan thuang mai.
Tha hal, Tmng Qudc mudn canh tranh vdi he thdng Bretton Woods do My lap ndn.
Sau Chien tranh The gidi thil hai. My ciing vdi cac ddng minh da hinh thanh nen trat ty kinh te the gidi (che dp Bretton Woods) vdi cac djnh che tai chinh va phat ttien, de tir
"frat tu dya tren luat djnh" (rales-based- order) nay anh hudng den kinh te the gidi.
Trat ty do My din dau da mang lai lgi ich eho My. IMF dupc tao ra nhim duy tri che do Bretton Woods chi cd My nam quyen phu quyet. Tai Chau A, Nhat Ban va My eiing ciing ddc quyen quyen phii quyet trong ADB.
Trong khi dd, vai trd va anh hudng ciia Tmng Qudc trong cac dinh che tai chinh lau ddi nhu ADB hay IMF lai cyc ky nhd. Thi nhung thdi thi da thay ddi, GDP danh nghia
NQHIEN Cdu OdNQ BflC fl, s611(225) n-2019
cua Tnmg Qudc hien da chidm tdi 12% GDP the gidi. Trong lich su chua timg ed mpt chinh phu nao kiem soat tryc tiep nhieu cua cai nhu gitii lanh dao eua Tmng Qudc hien nay. Do dd khdng ngac nhien khi siic manh kinh te gia tang, Trung Qudc se mudn sir dung dieu nay ie thiic day cac muc tieu chien luge. Nham nang cao vj the tai chinh qudc te ciia minh, Tmng Qudc da yeu cau thay ddi thanh phan quyen bieu quyet frong IMF va ADB nhtmg khdng dugc My va Nhat Ban chap nhan. AIIB ra ddi vdi sy dieu phdi ciia Tmng Qudc da trd thanh ddi trpng ldn cua cae djnh che tai chinh va phat trien lau ddi. do. Try sd ciia AIIB dugc dat tai Bac Kinh va Thdng dde ngan hang la ngudi Trung Qudc - dng Kim Lap Quan. Trong sd cac nude thanh vien AIIB chi cd minh Tmng Qudc nim frdn 25% sd phieu. Theo quy djnh, nhiing dy luat quan trpng nhat mudn dupc thdng qua phai cd 75% phidu bau can thiet, bdi vay ma chi cd Trung Qudc la nude cd quyin phu quydt va nam vai frd chi phdi ddi vdi AIIB. Vdi AIIB, Tmng Qudc da cd thi thach thitc vj thi cua My fren trudng qudc te frong vai ttd din dit cac qudc gia khac theo
"frat ty dya tren luat djnh" ma My thidt lap tir tmde vdi mdt "Beijing Woods" do Trung Qudc tao ra.
Tha ba, ttong viec thanh lap AIIB, Bae Kinh cdn ip li mgt tham vgng sau xa la hien thye hda sang kiln "Vanh dai va Con dudng" kit ndi Ddng A vdi Chau Au, Chau Phi va Trung Ddng, gianh thi chu dao frang viec dinh hinh mdt frat ty kinh tl chinh trj qudc tl mdi. Khiu hieu "Giic mdng Tmng Hpa" eua Chii tjch Tap da dugc cu thi hda vdi mdt kl hoach hanh ddng mang ten Sang
kien "Mdt vanh dai, mpt con dudng"
(OBOR, ten gpi trudc day ciia "Vanh dai vi Con dudng" BRI). OBOR/BRl la chinh sach ddi ngoai quan trpng nhat ma dng Tap van gpi la "Dy an the ky". Sang kidn nay eho thay rang dng Tap la n ^ d i theo dudi dudng ldi ddi ngoai chu ddng di tidn phong, frai vdi tu tudng "giau minh chd thdi" eua dng Dang Tieu Binh trudc day. Muc tieu cua BRI theo md ta ciia dng Tap la Ihiic day hgi nhap khu vyc, day manh thucmg m?i va tang trudng kinh td. Mdt sd nha phan tich tham chi edn so sanh BRI vdi Kd ho^ch Marshall ciia My sau Chien tranh The gidi thir hai.
Dat Tmng Qudc vao vj tri trung tam, ke hoach bao phu khu vyc ed dan sd 4,4 ty ngudi va tdng GDP 21.000 ty USD (khoing 1/3 GDP toan cau) nay cd thi djnh hinh l^i kinh tl toan ciu trong thi ky XXI bang vi?c ket ndi cac ndn kinh te A - Au - Phi thdng qua mdt mang ludi giao thdng va ca sd ha tang rdng ldn chua tirng cd.
Tuang ty nhidu "nude ldn" khac trong do cd My, vdi Tmng Qudc vi?c de xuat cac sang kiln thudng huting ddn da myc tieu, ndi each khac la lgi ich kinh te, ehinh tri, an ninh dugc long ghep. BRI nim trong mgt ke hoach tdng thi duge ggi la "Chidn luge phdi hpp" (Cooperative strategy) cua Tmng Qudc.
Theo Bao "Btra dien Hoa Nam budi sang", BRI kit hgp vdi AIIB va SRF (Quy Con dudng To lua) se trd thanh mgt co che dong bd giiip cac cdng ty ciia Tmng Qudc xay dyng cac tuyin dudng bg, dudng sat, cang biln va nhttng he thdng dudng dien trai dai khip Chau A, Chau Phi va Tmng Ddng.
Mang ludi co sd ha ting nay cudi ciing sS lien kit ba lyc dja bing he thdng dudng sat
NQHIEN Cdu DONQ BAC fl, s6 11(225) 11-2019
Nghien citu khqaj}££.
va dudng bd. lam sdng lai cac myln dudng thucmg mai fren dat lien va tten bien xa xua.
Sau cimg, neu tim nhin nay dugc thyc hien thi tat ca cac tuyen dudng dd se din tdi BJc Kinh, hien thyc hda "Giac mgng Tmng Hoa"
khi bien Trang Qudc ttd thanh qudc gia tnmg tam.
De hieu rd horn ve dpng lyc cua Trung Qudc ddi vdi AIIB cung nhu BRI va l\ do nude nay rat chu ttpng llnh vyc dau tu co sd h? tang, trade hdt can xem xet lai tam nhin ciia Trung Qudc vl hgi nhap kinh tl. Cd thi thay ring each tiep can phd bien cua phuang Tay ddi vdi hpi nhap kinh te (vi dy NAFTA, EU...) la ty do hda thuong mai, kinh td, sir dyng eie hidp djnh ty do hda dd dd bd rao can phip ly va the chl ddi vdi thucmg mai vi dau tu, tao ra cac quy djnh, tieu chuan va co che giai quyet tranh chap mang tinh rang bupe phip ly, thiet Ijp khdng gian md eho cac doanh nghidp tu nhan.
Trong khi dd, each tiep can cila Trung Qudc vdi hgi nhap kinh td lai tap trang vao khia canh tao dieu kidn thuan lgi cho boat dpng kinh tl, nghia la thdc day thuong mai va dau tu bang each cai thien nang lyc ket ndi gitta cae thj tradng thdng qua phat trien co sd ha tang. Trong khi My chi tap trang vao viec thyc hien hgp chuin quy tic tai cac qudc gia khae ma it chii ttgng tdi dieu gi la cin thiet vdi nhttng nen kinh td do, thi Trang Qudc lai mudn tap trang xay dyng ca sd ha ting cho cac nude ddi tac, bdi dau sao nang cip ca sd ha tang vin la van de thiet than \di eac qudc gia dang phat tridn Chau A, hon la nhimg tieu chuan cao ve mdi tradng, sd htru tri tue... Co sd ha ting tdt se thue day phat Oiln kinh tl. Cae sang kien xay dyng co sd
ha ting nay ciia Trang Qudc se thiic day sy lidn kit chat che giua cac thj tradng dang ndi cd tidm nang tang ttirdng manh me dpc tuyin dudng nhd \ao hgp tac kinh te va thuang mai. tang eudng co sd ha tang giao thdng. tao ra cac kit ndi khu vyc mdi va cac cum khu cdng nghiep khdng Id.
Han ntta BRI cOng cd thi trd thanh mdt md hinh sang tao luat chai va ddng vai ttd nhu mdt cdng cy dinh hinh lai ttat ty kinh td
\ a chinh tti toan ciu. Vdi BRI Trung Qudc cd thi tao ra nhung hanh lang kinh td xuyen luc dja tda khip A - Au (Vanh dai kinh td Con dudng to lua) va vanh dai biln A - Au (Con dudng to lua ttdn bien thd ky XXI), kdt qua la se thue day cac ddng kinh td ra vao xuat phat tu Tmng Qudc. Cau thanh ciia BRI va hai Con dudng to lua gdm ca ha tang Cling \ a mdm. Ha tang cimg la thep, be tdng, may mdc dd xay dudng sit, dudng cao tdc, cang bidn, dudng dng din nhidn lieu, khu cdng nghidp, ea sd hai quan cira khau va cac dac khu thuang mai. Cdn ha ting mim la nhttng thi chl tai chinh cho phat ttiln nhu cac thda thuan thuang mai va diu tu qudc tl, didn dan hgp tac da phuong, cdng ttinh nghidn cira ban lam, giao Itm van hda, du ljch... tao nin tang xa hdi cho cac ddng diuong mai va diu tu. Vide thuc day BRI theo nhttng chuong trinh nghj sy nay se khdng ddi hdi Trang Qudc phai ddi mat vdi nhung cudc dam phan da phuong lau dai va diy riy khd khan. Chi cin Trang Qudc diing ldn ddng vai trd din dit trong dl xuit, thao luan, thiic diy hgp tae va cung cip cho ddi tac nhttng khuyin khich vat chit nhu tin dung, dau tu va co hpi thuong mai mdi, rit
NQHIEN Cdu OdNQ BflC fl. s611(225) 11-2019
nhidu qudc gia se sin sang hgp tac vtii sang kien hdi nhap kinh t l cua Trung Qudc.
Ngoai ra co sd ha tang kinh tl ciing khdng phai la uu tidn ldn ddi vtji cac nha tai trg phuang Tay, bdi vay ma Tmng Qudc lai cang cd lgi thd trong vai trd djnh hinh hdi nhap kinh t l A - Au. Mdt thi ky trudc, nha Iy luan dja chinh trj ngudi Anh Hal ford Mackinder da lap luan, bit cir ai nim quyin kiem soat lyc dja A - Au (Eurasia) sd kiim soat dugc ca thd gidi. Bdi vay cd thi ndi tim nhin dja chidn luge A - Au nay se vd ciing hidu qua neu tdc dp tang tradng nhanh eua Trang Qudc tiip tuc dupc duy tri. Trung Qudc khdng chi nhanh chdng tao dupc anh hudng ngay eang to Itin vl kinh tl, chinh ttj va quan sy, ma cdn cd thi lam chu khdng gian anh hudng d Chau A, kiim soat cac ngudn lye quan trgng d Chau A, Chau Au, Chau Phi, tao ndn tang vting chac cho qua ttinh thiet lap mdt trat ty qudc td mdi.
Ly giai ve mue tieu vuon xa sang hudng Tay, cd thi thay ring Tmng Qudc la qudc gia dai luc rat ldn, bien gidi dat lien tiep giap vdi 14 qudc gia. Chinh vi vay, dn djnh quan he vdi cac nude lang gidng fren dat lidn bang mpt mang ludi nhu BRI la rat can thidt. Ben canh dd, theo chuyen gia Ddng Nam A Shiraishi Takashi, Giam ddc Hpc vidn Nghien ciiu Chinh sach (Vien Nghien ciru Kinh td Chau A cua Nhat Ban), giai doan sau khiing hoang tai chinh cae nude Ddng Nam A ddu xa rdi My ban va anh hudng cua Tmng Qudc tai Chau A da gia tang wtat bac.
The nhung chi ven ven vai nam kd tit 2008, uy tin Trung Qudc da syp dd, tir van de Bidn Ddng va Bidn Hoa Nam cung cd the thay dugc sy that bai ldn trong chinh sach ngoai
gia<3 cita Trang Qudc. Vdi Nhat Ban, Trang Qudc cttng da tao ndn khdng it hiim khich vd chu quydn biln dao, khiin cho quan hd Nhat - ,M> cang them khang kbit. Khi quan he vdi cac nude lang gidng xung quanh ngay cang cang thang, Tmng Qudc dl nhien se mudn hutjng ve phia Tay, noi hp chua timg cd xung dot.
Bdn canh dd, vide md rpng diu tu co sd ha tang vao nhiing qudc gia Tmng A cung tao ra cho Tmng Qudc mdt khu vyc lang gidng giap cac tinh phia Tay Trang Qudc vdn bit dn nhu Tay Tang va Tan Cuong trd ndn dn djnh. Ngoai ra, vide khuyin khich eae dy an quanh khu vye Biln Ddng eung cd thd giup Tmng Qudc ciing cd sire nang tuyen bd chu quydn cua minh d khu vyc nay. Theo nhidu chuydn gia, chinh sach "ngoai giao ca sd ha tang" ciia Trang Qudc phan anh dgng ca tang eudng cac mdi quan he dgc theo viing ngoai vi dat lien ciia hp vao thdi diim ma cac tranh chip lanh thd gay cang thing frong quan he vdi cac nude lang gidng cd bidn. Trong bdi canh cac mdi quan hd ben sudn hang hai phia Ddng xau di, Trang Qudc bat dau mudn xay dyng cac quan he hgp tae va dn dinh ben sudn dat lien phia Tay. Day la khu vye ma sy hidn didn cua My khdng dugc manh me nhu d vung bidn Ddng A, noi My dang "ram rd" triin khai chien luge "tai can bang" dya vao cac ddng minh tmydn thdng (ma phan ldn ddu la cac cudng qudc bidn nhu Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, Philippines, Thai Lan, Australia) va phat tridn cac mdi quan he ddi tac mdi vdi mdt sd qudc gia Ddng Nam A (nhu Viet Nam va Myanmar).
NQHIEN Cdu OdNG BflC fl. sd 11(225) 11-2019
Nghien cicu knou »<>t.
Vay xet cho cimg lidn hd gitta .-MIB va BRI la gi? Vd cau hdi nay. Tap ehi Forbes cua My ngay 15'11/2017 da phan tich, mdi lidn he giua AIIB va BRI gidng nhu hai canh tay tren cimg mpt co thd'. Phd Giao su Ly Cy Uy. chuyen gia tai chinh ciia Dai hgc Thanh Thj (Hong Kong) cho ring, muc dich chinh cua Trang Qudc khi khdi xudng AIIB va l?p "Quy Con dudng Ta lua" (SRF) la nhim vao My, eanh ttanh anh hudng vi thach thuc vi Ui lanh dao khu vyc cua Mv D I Uiyc hifn sang kien tham vpng ket hpp gitta ho ttp kinh tl vdi gia tang quyen lyc dja chiln luge, BRI rit can din nhttng djnh che tai chinh mdi do Trang Qudc dan dat nhu AIIB, SRF va Ngan hang Phat ttiln Mdi (BRICS). Hd ttg chat che cho BRI, AIIB la mgt cdng cy tai chinh de tao ndn cac "quan hd ddi tac lien kit". Tai APEC Bic Kinh 2014, dng Tap da tuyen bd trgng tam cho vay ciia AIIB la nhiing dy an ha ting van tai kit ndi Chau A vdi Chau Au. AIIB vdi muc dich thiic diy BRI da diu ttr 2,8 ty USD cho eie dy an nang luting va ca sd ha tang'', cho thiy khdng chi ctmg cap tai chinh cho xay dyng ca sd ha tang don thuan, AIIB chinh la phuang tidn quan ttgng de Tnmg Qudc hien thye hda djii chien luge "Vanh dai va Con dudng".
Mpt so nhan xet ve quan he ddi lap giira hai djnh che kinh te TPP va AIIB
Thanh cdng ve tang tradng kinh tl dugc duy tri lien tuc cua Trang Qudc ttong hcm 30 nam qua da mang lai cho nude nay sire manh
' httpy/japanese.china.org.cn/business/txt/2017-07/i7/con tent_41230023.htni. tniy cap 12/122017.
* https://jp.reute^s.co^I'a^ticle/column^)ne-belt-one-road- aiib-idJPKB\19CX194. trtiy cap 26/11/2017
vd cung to ldn. Theo dy bao ciia WB va IMF,
„iu tdc dd tang ttudng ciia Trung Qudc va Mv khdng thay ddi thi ehi 2025 hoac 2030 Trano Qudc se vuan ldn thay My ttd thanh nin kinh tl sd 1 thi gidi. Ngoai ra, each thiic Trung Qudc xay dung he thdng quydn lyc cua ridng hp cung gidng vdi nhiing gi My timg lam sau Chiln tranh Thd gidi thil hai.
Sy ttdi day manh me cua Trung Qudc da thach thirc vj thd, lam xdi mdn lgi ich va uy un cua My. Ngay ea khi thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi vin diing sau My, sy tang tradng kinh tl vugt bac cung dem lai cho Trung Qudc nhiing ngudn lyc can thidt dd thach diilc anh hudng eiia My d Chau A, lam thay ddi can can quydn lyc d khu vyc, cho phep nude nay sir dung sire manh kinh td to ldn dl ldi keo cac nude, lam giam siic song cua he thing lien minh My - Chau A.
Trong khi My tap tmng vao khia canh an ninh thi Trang Qudc sir dung "con bai kinh tl" dl "mua" anh hudng chinh frj va td ra kha thanh cdng. Vdi nhiing cdng cu quan ttpng nhu AIIB, BRI cd the vuan rgng, bao bgc A - Phi - Au frong hang loat nhihig thda thuan kinh te, cau tnic hijp tac, kidm soat nhung vj tri trpng ydu nhy trong trd choi cd vay, the hien rang Tmng Qudc cd kha nang cung cap "tai san cdng cgng" ma cac nude deu CO the sii dung. Trong tuong lai, Trung Qudc se cdn tiep tuc diy manh BRI, thd hifn d mdt sd khia canh sau:
Thu nhdt, nude nay se ngay cang md rpng hcm pham vi BRI. Khdng chi vuon tdi tan Bac Cue nhim tridn khai "Con dudng ta l(ia viing cyc" di qua cac tuydn hang hai d BJc Bai Tay Duong, canh franh xung quanh dao Idn nhat thd gidi Greenland vdi My, BRI con
10
NQHIEN Cdu OdNQ BflC fl, s611(225) 11-201'
md rdng pham vi boat ddng sang ca llnh \irc vii tra va khdng gian mang thdng qua he thdng ve tinh, cam bidn dinh vi tir xa, tidn tdi cd thd kiem soat va canh tranh vdi My ttong llnh vyc nay.
Thir hat, BRI se dan hinh thanh cac
"tuydn" ket ndi ro rang hon vd kdt cau ha tang, mang ludi thuong mai, nang lupng va hanh lang kinh td ma d dd Trang Qudc ddng vai ttd trang tam, cau triic "trang tam - ngoai vi" se dugc td chirc chat chd ban, hinh thanh tuyin giao thdng kdt ndi A - Au.
Tha ba, Tmng Qudc se tidp tyc day tu vao cac eang bidn quan trpng, cd vj tri chidn lupc vd nhidu mat.
Tha tu, nude nay se tich cyc khai thac hom ntta cae edng cu tai chinh va ca ehd hgp tac hd trg cho triin khai BRI nhu lap mang ludi cac ddi tac, day nhanh hgp tac vdi cac qudc gia ddi tac.
Ve phan My, hidn tai va ttong nhirng nam tdi day (dac bidt ndu vugt qua cugc bau cu didn ra vao cudi 2020), chinh quydn Tdng thdng My Trump se thdc diy nhanh han Chiln luge An Dp Duong Thai Binh Duong ty do va rpng md (FOIP). Ro rang vide ttiln khai BRI ciia Tmng Qudc la mpt ly do quan trpng thtic glue My day nhanh FOIP, tuy nhien cho ddn nay khdng gidng vdi ky vpng vin chua cd sy rd rang nao vd y tudng bao triim ciing nhu eac cau true can thiit eho viec thyc thi sang kidn nay, dac bidt la vd phucmg didn kinh td.
Quan he My - Tmng vin ludn dugc danh gia la mdi quan he qudc te quan trgng nhat ciia thi ky XXI. Tuy nhidn quan he giiia hai
"ngudi khdng Id" nay rat cd the se khdng chi dimg lai d sy ddi dau don thuan. Sir gia cd
dai Hy Lap Thucydides tung eho ring khi mdt cudng qudc mdi trdi da\ de dpa mdt cudng qudc ba chii hidn thdi. kit qua gin nhu khdng thd tranh khdi sd la chiln tranh.
Graham Allison thupc trudng Harvard Kennedy tham chi da thdng ke ring ttong 500 nam qua, 12/16 trudng hpp mpt sue manh dang len ddi dau mdt sue manh dang tri vi da dan den ehien ttanh. Quan sat tuang quan ddi lap giua AIIB va TPP rd rang cGng cd the thay dupc mpt cupc chidn kinh td am tham nhtmg quyet liet da didn ra gitta hai sieu cudng Trung Qudc va My. Hai djnh chd AIIB va TPP ddu cd mgt didm chung la ciing nham mdt mye dich gianh lay quydn chu dao vd thidt lap chinh sach, xac djnh lu$t choi cho Chau A va thd gidi trong thd ky XXI.
Ket luan
Qua nhirng phan tich trdn day, cd thi thay rang myc tidu ddi vdi TPP cua My khdng chi gidi ban d cac van dd kinh td. Cd nhOiig muc tidu dja - chinh trj quan trpng ma My mudn giai quydt, dd la di dau trong vide thidt lap cac nguyen tac kinh t l quan trpng va tang cudng cae lidn minh va ddi tac trong khu vyc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong dd ciing ddi phd vdi sue manh va anh hudng dang ngay mdt gia tang nhanh chdng cua Trang Qudc.
Ddi lai, AIIB cung khdng chi la mdt sang kiln kinh tl thuin tuy ma cdn la edng cu dja chinh tri nham tdi da hda cac lpi ich cua Trang Qudc. AIIB chinh la mit xich quan trgng ttong chiln luge BRI ma Tmng Qudc lap ldn dl ddi phd vdi kd hoach "xoay true Chau A", hudng tdi loai trir My trdn luc dia tir Chau A din Chau Au, Chau Phi, gianh quyin chd dao trong vide thidt lap "luat choi" cua thi ky XXI. Theo nhan djnh ciia
NCHIEN Cdu OdNQ BflC fl. sd 11(225) 11-2019 11
Sghien cicu khoaJ}S£.
Tmng Qudc, myc tidu ciia TPP la ciu kit cac ndn kinh td \ ay quanh Trang Qudc thanh mgt tran tuydn thdng nhat, cgng thdm Hidp djnh Thucmg mai \ a Dau tu Xuydn Dai Tax Duong (T-TIP), My diucmg thuyit vdi Chau Au se trd thanh mgt tran tu> en toan eau ma My bay ra. Bdi vay dd ddi phd. Tmng Qudc sir dyng BRI va AIIB dd ngan chan \a day liii anh hudng cua M\ tai Chau A \ a \a ban.
My timg ddng vai frd dan dau trong xa>
dyng ttat ty kinh td td sau Chien tranh Thd gidi thu hai. Song trong hau hel cac kjch ban, Trang Qudc vin s5 la ddi thii canh tranh dang ke nhat ciia My ttong nhiing thap ky tdi.
Trong bdi canh anh hudng kinh td eua Trang Qudc ngay cang md rdng, sy vang mat d cac khudn khd hgi nhap sd djnh hinh nen cae nguydn tic kinh te, thuong mai quan ttpng,
&ie bidt la tai Chau A - Thai Binh Duong cd thi s5 khidn sy hidn didn ciia M\ trong ndn kinh td khu vyc va tren thd gitii nga\ cang giam sut, cho dii hp cd ddn bao nhidu siic lyc vao khia canh quan sy di ntta.
diplomatic str.iii-g\ in die Asia - Pacific region . Lnited States Senate. One Hundred Thirteenth Ccingress. Second Session. April 17. -Ol-t- https: u-\\"v\'.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media'doc/
8":6'):.pdf.
5 Obama, B. (2016), "The TPP would let .•\merica. not China lead the way on global trade". Washington Post, http://www.washing tonpost.com/opinions/presidenl-obama-the-tpp- wouldlel-america-not-China-lead-the-way-on- global-trade/2016/0502/680540e4-0fd0-11 e6- 93ae-50921721165d_story.html.
6. Kato Thomas (2013), "A U.S. View on TPP - TPP *I1W!I.,#.", ^<-f<) y'7 • y^
4'y, 2013¥7.f5 10 B.
7. ffi^-tS* (2015), "i^^B^m^AlIB M TPP- B^l::fM$tifz^i£mn^-Yy^'\
m»SiSir»±,2015¥l2.3 18 H.
TAI Lipu THAM KHAO
1. Bo Thi Anh (2011), "Hiep dinh B6i tac Chiln luge Xuyen Thai Binh Duong (TPP) va quan didm cita Nhat Ban", Nghien ciru Bdng BacA,so 11 nam 2011.
2. Thdng tin xa Vidt Nam (2016), Cdc vdn de qudc ti, Tai lieu tham khao dac biet, so Uiang 6/2016.
3. Thong tin xa Viet Nam (2016), Tai lieu Iham khdo dgc biet, 26/11 /2016.
4. U.S. Government Printing Office (2014),
"Re - balancing die Rebalance: Resourcing U.S.
12 NQHI6H Cdu OdNQ BflC fl. sd 11(225) IMoij
