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MO HINH KINH TE L I / O N G KHONG GIAN DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA VON DAU T U GIAO THONG DEN TANG TRl/OfNG KINH TE
KHU VUC DONG BANG SONG HONG
• LETHI QUYNH NHUNG
T6M TAT:
Bai bdo nghien cffu idc dpng cua \ on giao thong van tdi kho bdi de'n tdng irffdng kinhte, bao gdmcd tdc dpng lanlda khdng gian d khu vffc Dong bdng sdng Hong. Ke'l qua cho thd'y, vond£u tffgiao thdng cd tac dpng trffc tie'p \ a gian tid'p lam ldng GDP. he so tdc dpng lan tda khdng gian rd't Idn nen h? sd tdc dpng long hdp idi GDP Idn nhd't. Ngodi ra, nghien ctfu cho thd'y dp md vl tie'p can dd't dai, linh minh bach vd dp md ve gia nhap thi trtfdng trong bp chi so PCI cd y nghTa thd'ng kd vd tdc ddng ciing chieu den ldng irtfdng kinh te'.
Tff khda: Ddng bdng song Hdng. vtfn giao thong, tdng trtfdng kinh td'.
l.D$tvfindd
Viet Nam hien chia thanh 6 viing kinh Id', tfong dd vOng Ddng bdng song Hong (DBSH) gom 11 linh: VTnh Phuc. Bdc Ninh. Ha Noi. Hai Phdng.
Hai Dffdng, Htfng Yen. Ha Nam. Nam Dinh. Thai Binh. Ninh Binh \ a Quang Ninh. Dac die'm chung cua vung ndy cd dja hinh bdng phdng, thudn ldi cho giao thdng dtfdng bd, cd song Hong bdt ngudn iff linh Van Nam (Trung Qud'c) chay qua, hdp Itfu cung song Da. sdng Ld iao dieu kien cho giao ihdng dffdng thiiy, giam dp Itfc cho giao thdng dtfdng bp.
Nhtfng ndm qua. Chinh phu da quan tdmhd ird phdt trien dau ttf giao thdng van tai khu \i/cDBSH.
Da\ Id khu vtfc irong \e'u. cd Thii dd Ha Ndi - irung tam giao ihtfdng budn ban ldn cda ca ntfdc:
Quang Ninh la tinh giap ranh Trung Qud'c \di cffa khau qudc ic quan trpng Mong Cdi: thdnh pho' cans Hai Phdng vdi nhieu ben, cang bien ldn. Do
dd, ha lang giao thong dtfdng bd ciJng iffdng dd'i phat trien so vdi mat bdng chung cd nffdc.
Ty le dtfdng cd lieu chuan ky thual cao vd ty le dtfdng quoc Id dang dtfdc dau iff xay dtfng deu, dtfng thff hai cd ntfdc. Nhieu doan, luytfn dtfdng cao td'c da hoan thanh nhtf: Tuye'n dtfdng bo cao td'c Phap Van - Cau Gie, Ha Noi - Lao Cai, Ha Noi - Thai Nguyen, Ha Nui - Hai Phdng. Cdc luyen dtfdng sdt tren cao cung dang dtfdc lie'p luc trien khai.
Dau ttf nganh hang khdng cung dtfdc chii trpng phdt trien nhtf: Hoan thanh nha ga hdnh khdch T2, he Ihd'ng dtfdng ldn. san dd nha gaT2-Cang hang khdng Npi Bai; Nang cd'p Cang hang khdng Cdt BI, Cang hang khdng Van Don.
Ve dtfdng thiiy ndi dia. cdc tuytfn dtfdng ihuy qudc gia tie'p tuc dtfdc cai iao, ndng cd'p, d:n_ biel dd hodn thien xdy dtfng cang cffa ngo uii.Vc te' Lach HiuOn, titfn hanh nang cd'p nhieu i . ,ng
104 So 11 -Thang 5/2020
KINI IE
khu vtfc DBSH. dam bao tinh ke'l nd'i vdi giao thong dtfdng bd.
Ben canh dd van con ton tai nhffng bd'i cap nhtf:
Tdc nghen giao thdng \au gid cao diem lai cdc ihanh phd ldn, nhieu doan dtfdng dtfdc dau tff xay dffng nhtfng nhanh chdng xuo'ng cd'p, cdc tuye'n dtfdng sdi iren cao van qua han vd dpi von, ghi nhdn vd'n dau ttf khdng hieu qua tai mdt vdi dtfan giao thdng.
Vdi vi tri, vai ird ddc biet quan trong cua DBSH
\c dia ly vd kinh lc. vice danh gia vai trd ciia von dau tff giao thdng (VDTGT) de'n tang irtfdng kinh te (TTKT) Id vd cdng can ihie'l, gdp phan dtfa ra cac hoach dinh, chien Itfdc phat trien giao thdng ca nffdc ndi chung vd dac biet la cho cdc linh DBSH ndi rieng.
2. Td'ng quan nghien cffu
Trong kinh te', ham san xua'l Cobb-Douglas dffdc stf dung rpng rai de' bieu dien cho nid'i quan he tac dpng ciia cac ye'u td'dau vao de'n mpt yeu td'dau ra. Md hlnh cd dang:
Y = F(X|; \ | : , \,|) = aX|"i Xi":... x^"^
Trong dd:
^ : Ytfu td'diiu ra, Bid'n \: Cac yd'u td'dau vao.
Cac nha hpc ihuyel kinh le' cd dien deu Ihd'ng nha'l cdc yeu Id' dau vao tac ddng dtfn TTKT la
\dn. Iao ddng \a dii't dai. Trong dd. ye'u to da't dai Id vd ciing quan trong. Trong ly ihuytfl kinh te'cua Adam Smith (1976), Iao dpng dffdc de cap khong chl dtfdc phdn anh bdi so Itfdng ma cdn dtfdc phan dnh qua cha't Itfdng lac dpng. Vd'n cdn xet bdi viec lach thanh cdc khoan muc dau tff khdc nhau nhtf:
Vdndau ttf ha tang giao thdng cong cdng; Vdndau tir dien. nffdc: Vdn dau ttf ntfdc ngoai FDI.
Nghien cffu ciia Munnell va cdng stf (1990) tai M> gtai doan 1970- 1986 cho tha'y. vd'n dau ttf cao ldc cd ldc dpng dtfn GDP vdi he sd' la 0.06. Nhieu nghien ctfu chi ra VDTGT cd tac dpng dtfdng dtfn ldng irtfdng GDP nhtf nghien ctfu ciia Finn (1993) lai M\. Gao (2005).
Cac nhd kinh itf tan co dien nhtf Kc>nes (197.V1989). Solow (1956) va Swan (1956) vdn giff nguyen cac nhan id tdc dpng nhtf quan diem ciia md hinh cd dien nhffng nha'n manh den vai ird ciia cdng nghe dtfn TTKT. Cdc md hinh TTKT
ngay cang dtfdc md rdng vdi nhieu nhan id' tdc dpng nhtf dp mdciia nen kinh tc. sd dndinh chinh tri - xd hdi.
Xua'l phdt iff ly thuye'l lang trtfdng vd the" che'.
ngoai cac \eu id'vd'n. Iao dpng. vcu id quye'l dmh quan irpng de'n TTKT la chat Itfdng dieu hanh.
khung ihe che' nha ntfdc. Vai Ird ciia cha'l Itfdng dieu hanh. chat Itfdng khung the che' nhd ntfdc da dtfdc tfng dung trong nhieu nghien ctfu gan ila\ nhtf nghien ctfu ciia Acemoglu va cpng stf (2005), Rodrik(20()4).
Nhieu nghien cffu xem xet ldc ddng cua VDTGT de'n TTKT dtfdc md rdng vdi md hinh kinh Id' Itfdng khdng gian, lac ddng ciia ha lang giao thong khdng chi la irffc tiep de'n khu vtfc md cdn cd tinh Ian tda khdng gian de'n cac viing lan can. Ddc thil cua ha lang giao thdng van tai Id cd linh ke't nd'i cao giffa cac loai hinh ha tang giao thdng. giffa cac phtfdng lien giao ihdng de dam bao dap tfng day dii nhu cau di lai, giao thtfdng budn ban cua ngtfdi dan. Cdc nghien cffu nhtf Zhang (2008). Ricucld {1994) ghi nhan ldc ddng trtfc tie'p va gian nep ciia ha lang giao ihdng de'n nang sual. gdp phan phai trien kinh lc
Tai Viel Nam. nghien cffu dinh Itfdng ve VDTGT dd'n TTKT ral it. nghien ctfu djnh Itfdng stf dung md hinh khdng gian danh gia tdc ddng Ian tda khdng gian ciia VDTGT tai cdc linh DBSH chtfa cd.
3. Mo hinh nghien ctfu
3.1. Mo hinh ly thuye't kinh te lUgng thong thudng
Mo hinh cd dang ham Cobb-Douglas:
Y = nX: Z: T) = a.X,°i X-^'-.Z^.V Trong dd:
Y la tdng san pham quoc dan (GDP), linh theo gia so sanh 2010:
X = |X,; X|) dai dien cho nhdm bien vd'n dau ttf gdm 2 bie'n:
X^: Bie'n vd'n dau ttf cho giao thong van tai kho bai va X,: Vdn dau ttf khong cho giao ihong Cac bie'n lay theo gia so sdnh 2010.
Z la nhdm bie'n dai dien cho vd'n Iao ddng. bao gdm so Itfdng Iao dpng 15 tuoi dang lam viec va chat Iffdng Iao dpng;
So 11 -Thong 5/2020 105
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T Id nhdm bidn dai dien cho chd'i Iffdng dieu hanh. the' che' phdp 1> cda dia phtfdng.
Cdc bie'n diroc chay dtfdi dang logarit ttf nhidn.
3.2. Md hinh ly thuyet kinh telling khong gian Ma Iran khdng gian M = {m,,} la ma irdn vudng kich thtfdc 11*11. dtfdc Ihanh lap iff ma irdn nghich dao khoang cdch giffa tinh i va tinh j * i trong 11 tinh DBSH, he sd tren dtfdng chdo Id 0. sau dd la'y chuan hda theo hdng.
Md hinh kinh te' Itfdng khdng gian \ci lac dpng lan toa khdng gian ciia bie'n VDTGT Jen TTKT
InY =fiX: Z; T) = lnb+Ci*lnX, + f,,*/«V_, + c,''.\lln\,+d*lnZ + e*lnT + u 3.3. Dff lif u
C;ic bie'n dtfdc lay ihco 11 tinh DBSH. iff nam 2010-2017.
Bicn phu thupc: InGDPssId logarit ttf nhien cua GDP so sanh 2010 (Irieu ddng).
Bien ddc lap:
+/ Nhdm bie'n vd'n dau
Iff: LnVonSsVTKBTctk Id ' ^ ° ^'"^ '•
vdndau ttf so sdnh 2010 cho
giao thong vi„ (ai khe, bai „ . . . r S » "SSL.
(trieu ddng):
InVDTS.STach; Vd'n dau ttf so sdnh 2010 khdng danh cho giao thdng van lai kho bai (trieu ddng).
+/ Nhdm bie'n vd'n Iao ddng: LD15DLV la so Iao dpng 15 ludi dang lam viec;
Daoiaolaodong_PCl la bien
"dao tao Iao dpng" ttf bp dff lieu ciia PCI.
+ ' Nhdm bien phan dnh chal Itfdng dieu hanh.
khung the chc' Theo uchsiic chinh ihtfc cOa Phong Cdng nghiep va Thffdng mai \ ici Nam
| \ C C l i . "Chi so'PCI la .hi sd d o Itfdng \ a d a n h gia chat Itfdng dieu hanh kinh lc. mtfc dd ihujn ldi ih.m
ihicn ciia mdi trtfdng kinh doanh vd no Iffc .ich
Ra ndcim-ef f e e t
hanh chinh cua chinh qu\en cdc linh. thanh ]»ho tai
\ iei N.im".
Do dd. cac bien phan dnh chd'i lUVing dieu hanh, khung the che dac irtfng rieng timg tinh dtfdc l.i\ Itf bd dff lieu dieu ira ciia PCI.
3.4. Kit qua mo hinh
3.4.1 Ket qud md Idnh kinh ic lu<?ng ihdng thudng
Chay md hinh cho cdc linh DBSH: Cdc bie'n dpc Idp dtfdc dtfa \ ao mo hinh bao gdm 2 bie'n vd'n dau Itf (giao thdng V a ngoaigiao thdng). bitfn so Itfdng Iao ddng. ty le Iao dpng qua dao tao cilng cac bien irong bd dU lieu PCI.
Sau khi tie'n hanh loai bo cac bie'n trong bo dff lieu PCI ma khdng cd y nghTa, cdc bie'n cd y nghTa ihd'ng kc gdm: Dao tao Iao ddng, tie'p can dd't dai.
linh minh bach \a gia nhdp thi irffdng. Sff dung kie'm dinh Hausman cho md hinh tac ddng random effect, mo hlnh khdc phuc ldi bdi lenh Robusi, ke't qua thu dffdc nhtf sau: (Md hlnh 1)
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Cdc gid tri P^value bid'n deu cd y nghta thtfng kd d mffc 5*^. rieng bie'n "Gia nhdp thj irffdng" cd y nghia Ihd'ng ke mtfc 107f. R-tdng hdp = S6.57^f.
Hd '•d' CO gian ciia VDTGT khi khong xet tdc dpng lan tda khdng gian la 0.12.^2 Dieu nay cd nghia, cff tdng \9c VDTGT, GDP ciia linh se tang 0,1232</f.
Cac nhdn to the' hien chat Itfdng dieu hdnh cd y nghia thd'ng kc irong md hinh la:
Gia nhap ihi trtfdng, tinh minh bach vd tie'p can dat dai.
3.4.2 Ket qua mo hinh kmh lclU(mg khong gian
Cac bie'n Itfa chon dtfa vdo nio hinh dffdc gdi y ttf Md hlnh 1, kiem dinh Hausman cho tac ddng random effect, ta co mo hlnh 2.
Kci qua cho tha'y, cac bie'n deu cd y nghTa thd'ng kc He sd' ma tfan khdng gian ciia VDTGT cd y nghia thdng ke. lien hanh phan rd lac dpng trtfc tie'p \a gian lie'p cua bie'n tren:
So sanh kci qua giffa Md hinh ! va M6 hinh 2 cho iha\. kci qua la ttfdng ddng ve da'u \li y nghia thdng ke cho la'ica cac bie'n.
Ke'l qua cho tha'y. he sd' tdc dpng irffc titfp cua bie'n VDTGT = 0.0968. ttfc Id neu vd'n dau ttf tang 19c thi trffc liep deu ldng GDP so sdnh len 0.0968%. he so lac dpng gidn tie'p la 0.3016. Dieu na> cd nghia.
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So 11 -Thang 5/2020 107
TAP Cll C8IIC m i m e
neu VDTGT id't ca 10 dnh cdn lai deu tang I*^.
dtfdi ldc ddng lan ida khdng gian. gdp phiin lang GDP linh dang \ci len d 3016'*. trong dd he so ddng gdp lan tda khdng gian cua rieng linh j ddi vdi linh i la 0.3016'i "ni,, - vdi m,j la trpng so khong gian lay tff ma trdn khong gian M Dieu nay cho thd'y, lai khu vtfc DBSH. giao thdng lac ddng linh cd lan tda khdng gian Id rat ldn \di he sd'tdng hdp Id 0.3984. nd cung cd ngu\en nhan ttf khu vdc dia hinh bdng phang. thuan ldi cho giao thdng lien tinh.
4. Ktft ludn \a khuyen nghj
- He sd ciia VDTGT va he so tdc dpng td'ng hdp bac gdm ca tac ddng lan tda khdng gian ciia VDTGT van l5i deu ra'i ldn, cho iha'y tinh hieu qua cua ca 2 loai vd'n nay trong khu vffc DBSH.
- Xet cdc bie'n irong bp dff lieu CPI. he sd \ c dao tao Iao ddng dffng dau cho khuyen nghi nen
phdl huy lam tang chi sd \ c d.iotao !.!•' •-• ' gdm: Tang chd't Itfdng ddo tao Giao • ''i^' '^_'^"^
va Day nghe; Tdng kmh phi cho ddo uo Iao Jpng.
Tang ctfdng thdng lin tu\en dung Iao ddng tf^n i.ac phtfdng tien thdng tin dai chiing.
- Ticp can dd't dai. tinh minh bach cd he sd co gian dtfdng nen dd ghi nhan viec cSp nh;.' diy du vd kip thdi cdc thong tin hd trd phdp ly. minh bach cdc diong tin dtf dn dau itf. ddc biei la cac dtf dn da!
dai iren cdng thdng lin chinh quyen tinh khu vffc DBSH. cd tdc dung Ihuc da'y tang trtfdng.
- He stf dtfdng va cd y nghia ciia bien "Gia nhap thi trtfdng" cho tha'y, vi^c da'y manh cai each thu tuc, giam thieu chi phi thdi gian vd phi de hoan thanh thii tuc dang ky kinh doanh, di vao hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep cd Idc dung Idm ldng trtfdng GDP .so sanh, day la mdt dtfdc ghi nhan va phdt huy •
TAI I.IKl THAM KHAO:
1. Acemoglu. D. J.. S. |21H)5). Unbundling Institutions. Journal ofpoUliccd economy. 113,949 - 995.
2. Finn, M. (1993). Is all govemmeni capital productive? Economic Quarterly. 79,53-80.
3. Gao. F. (2005). Trunspon investment and economic growib. China Financial and Economic Publishing House.
4 Kc\ncs.J M (1973-1989) The Collected Writings of J \! Keynes. 30 vols. London, [JK:M-dCTnii\-dn.
3. MUNNELL, A H. A C , L. M. (1990b). How Does Public Infrastructure Affect Regional Economic Perfomiance. New England Economic Review. 11-33.
6. RIETVELD, P (1994). Spatial economic impacts of transport infrastructure supply. Transporlation Research Pari A. I't'lu yandPractice. 2S. 329-341
7. RODRIK, D,. .SL'BR WIANIAN, A. AND TREBBl. F 2004. InstituUons Rule The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development. Journal ofEconcymic Growth, 9, 131 - 165.
S. SMITH. A (1976). An Inquiry into ibe Nature and Causes of the Weallb of Nations. Oxford, UK: Oxford Uni\crsii\ Press
9. SOLOW. R. \1 (1956). A Conmbuiion to the Theor\' of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of fie •»„ .,„c <., 70, (.5-44
1(1 SW \N r \\ (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation Eccmomic Record. 32. ^'^^^^ 36
II. ZHANG. \ (2(K18) Transport infrastructure, spatial spillover and economic growth: Evidence ,,^
Frontiers oJ Lconomic.\ in China. ?^. 585-597.
I : W chsHc CU.I Phon^ Thifdng mui \ a Cong nghiep Vict Nam- hllp.\://yvww.pcivielnam.vn/
108 S o l i -Thdng 5/2020
KINH TC
Ngay nh|n bai: 9/4/2020
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va suTa chi7a: 17/4/2020 Ngay chip nh$n dSng bai: 7/5/2020
Thong lin Idc gid:
LETHI QUYNH NHUNG BO nt6n Toan, Hpc vi$n NgSn hang
A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORT CAPITAL INVESTMENT
ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE RED RIVER DELTA
• LE THI QUYNH NHUNG Department of Mathematics, Banking Academy
ABSTRACT:
This study examines the impact of transport capital investment on economic growth, including spatial spillover effects in the Red River Delta. The study's results reveal that the hansporl capital investmeni directly and indu-ectly support the GDP growth. The aggregate impact to GDP factor is the largest thanks to a very high elasticity coefficient of the spillover effect. In addition, the study's results show that the openness of access to land, transparency and market entry costs in the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) aic statistically significant and positively impact on economic growth.
Keywords: Red River Delta, transport capital, economic growth.
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