CHAU MY NGAY NAY
CHINH TRI - LUAT
NHIN LAI cudc DOI DAU GIUA HAI DANG
DAN CHU VA CONG HOA QUA SIT KIEN DONG CUTA CHINH PHU MY NAM 2013
N
am 2013, chinh tniang nudc My da phai chiing ki6n nhiing cupc tranh gianh quyen luc giila dang Cong hoa njm da s6 ghe tai Ha vien voi dang Dan chii kijm soat Thircmg vien. Tinh trang nay dan toi su be tic trong nhieu quyet sach doi noi cua My. Trong nam nay, Quoc hpi khoa 113 hi danh gia la lam luat thi^u hieu qua' vi chi thong qua dupe 55 dao luat, s6 lupng it nhat trong hch su lap phap My. Su ch6ng d5i cua Dang Cpng hoa tai Quoc hpi dSi voi dg xujt ngan sach hen bang cua dang Dan chu da dan toi hau qua la ngan sach cho nam mai khong dupe thong qua diing thai han. Dhih diem la ngay 1/10/2013 mot phan ca quan Chinh phu My phai chmh thiic dong ciia va keo dai trong 16 ngay vi khong co kinh phi hpat dpng. Dieu nay da lam cho uy tin cua T6ng thSng Barack Obama va Qu8c hpi My giam xuong miic thap ky luc.Ve boi canh
Theo HiSn phap My, Quoc hpi co th&n quyen phe chuan mpi khoan chi
TS. Bvii Thj Phiromg Lan Vien NghiSn cint CMu My tieu cua chinh quyen lien bang va hxiu quyet thanh luat, duac Tong thong chap thuan va ban hanh. Tai khoa hang nam cda ngan sach lien bang dupe tinh tir ngay 1/10 nam nay dSn 30/9 nam sau, nSu Qu6c hoi chua thong qua dao luat ngan sach thi phai bilu quySt dao luat tam thai cho phep tiep tuc cac khoan chi din thai han cu the, sau do cac ca quan cong quyen lien bang moi dupe phep thanh toan. Ben canh do, do ngan sach Hoa Ky bi boi chi lien tuc nen chinh quyin hen bang phai di vay thong qua viee phat hanh trai phieu dp Bo Tai chinh quan ly. Nhung khoan np cpng nay va miic tran vay np lai dp Quic hoi quyet dinh. Khi chinh phli hen bang da vay rli ma can vay them thi phai xin Quoc hoi nang dinh miic di vay hay con goi la
"tran np" cpng. Nhu vay, cp the thay, viee chi thu cua chinh phu luon chiu su kiem soat chat ehe ciia Quoc hpi, bao gom ca Thuang vien va Ha vien.
Boi canh chinh tri nuac My tro nen phiic tap khi qua hai cupc bau cii vao nam 2010 va nam 2012, cii tri My da
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
dua dang Cpng Hpa nam da so tai Ha vien trong khi dang Dan Chu van kilm soat Thuang vien va bp may Hanh phap.
Khi phuc hpi kinh te con yeu va ngan sach tai khoa 2013 bi tu dpng cat giam 85 ty USD, su khac biet ve quan diem giiia hai dang da mang tinh doi dau va gay ra nhieu khung hoang chinh tri a My trong nhiing nam vira qua. Cac sang kiln lap phap ciia ca hai ben diu hi phan dli manh me.
Ve clt loi, dang Dan chu coi trpng cong bang xa hpi va kha nang can thiep cua nha nudc, con dang Cpng hoa chu trpng din phat trien kinh tl va muln giai han vai tro cua nha nuac. Doi voi ITnh VUC tai chinh cong, su khac biet ve lap truong duac the hien trong ho so ngan sach cua Chinh phu My. Ve ca ban thi dang Dan chu doi tang chi va tang thue, dang C6ng hoa doi giam chi va giam thue. Theo do, dang Dan chu nhSn manh viee tang thu, qua nhung khoan thue lai tiic ca nhan, thue doanh nghiep va tang thue doi vai nhung ngudi thu nhap cao. Dang Cpng hda phan ddi viee tang thu thul va de xuat cat nhiing khoan chi tieu cho an sinh xa hdi, dac biet la phan dpi manh me ddi Ipai bd Obamacare vi chuang trinh nay danh thang vao nhdm ngudi giau trong xa hpi.
Su bat ddng quan diem ve v3n dl ngan sach len den dinh diem khi nam tai khda 2013 kit thiic vap ngay 30/9 va Quoc hpi My khdng kip di den thing nhat de cc the thong qua ngan sach Hen bang cho nam mdi dung thdi han da din
tdi hau qua la mpt bp phan cong sd chinh phii lien bang da phai ddng cua 16 ngay. Nhu vay, sau 17 nam, mdt phan hoat dong chinh phu lien bang My bi day den trang thai te liet. Toan bd tien trinh xung dot chinh tri nay da phoi bay nhiing mau thuan npi tai sau sac ve quan diem chinh tri va lpi ich tir cap co sd den CO cau thuang tang cua ludng vi?n.
Ve Nguyen nhan
Dang sau hai van de ngan sach cho nam tai khda mdi va tran no cdng dan xen nhau chat ehe nay la xung dot ve y thuc he hen quan den chuong trinh Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (gpi tat la Obamacare) dp Tdng thdng Barack Obama de ra va da trd thanh tam diem cua cupc tranh cai giiia cac nghi sy hai dang Dan chu va Cpng hda. Ngay 1/10/2013 la mdc thdi han bat dau cua he thing bao hiem va cham sdc y te pho cap bit bupe di vao ca chi hoat ddng mac dinh tu dpng nhu mpt phan khdng thi thieu ciia he thing an sinh qudc gia.
Theo cac nghi sy Dan chii, Obamacare se mang lai hy vpng, giiip chp khoang 32/50 trieu ngudi chua cp bao hiem y te duac hudng cac dich vu y te thdng qua bao hilm, thi tang Idp ngudi giau va cac nghi sy Cpng hda lai cho ring nd se lam tang 500 ty USD tiln thue vdi ngudi My, bdi dl c6 kinh phi, chinh quyin Obama da dl nghi tang thue 5% vdi ai cd thu nhap tir han 1 trieu USD/nam.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Nhu vay, vl mau chdt thi cudc tranh cai khdng cd hdi ket giiia cac nghi sy Dan chii va Cpng hda thuc chit van la ve dam bap lpi ich chp ngudi giau (thieu sd) va ngudi ngheo (da sl). Trong khi nudc My hien cd tdi 50 trieu ngudi, chiem 16% dan sd, van chua cd bao hiem y te va can Obamacare, thi chi cd khoang 1% dan so thudc nhdm ngudi cd miic thu nhap tir 1 trieu USD m'di nam ltd len.
Mdt sd nghi sT dang Cpng hda da yeu clu loai bd chuang trinh Obamacare ra khdi chi tieu ngan sach (hoac chi it la tam hoan). Va each tdt nhat de lam viee nay la gan viee loai bd Obamacare vao du luat chi ngan sach cho nam tai khda tiep theo. Vdi muc tieu nay, dang Cpng hda da dua ra dieu kien, chi thdng qua du luat ngan sach 2014 khi chupng trinh cai each bao hilm y tl bi gac lai.
Luc lupng khdi nguon diing sau day nudc My vao cupc khiing hpang nay la phong trao chinh tri Cpng Hda bao thu cue doan mang ten Dang Tra (Tea Party), di dau la Thuang nghi si Ted Cruz bang Texas. Do thanh vien ciia phong trao nay la nhiing ngudi da trang thudc tang Idp tnmg nien, cd hpc thiic va cd mire thu nhap cao hon phan Idn dan chung My^, nen hp bat binh khi phai chi tra nhilu hpn chp mdt nudc My toan cau hda ma hp khong mudn thira nhan.
Theo cupc dieu tra vao thang 4/2010 do td New York Times va CBS News thuc hien, 18% ngudi My ung hp Dang Tra.
Vdi khpang 50 ngudi trung cir vap Qudc
hdi, cac iing vien Dang Tra da gat hai thanh cdng trong cudc bau cu Qudc hpi giiia ky nam 2010 va trd thanh nhdm bao thu nhat trong phe Cpng hda.
Vap thdi diem giiia nam 2013, phong trao Dang Tra cd nhilu hoat dpng chinh hi hoc Ip ro muc dich khai thac nhiing bat dong chinh tri giua hai dang trong Quic hpi. Hp chdng chinh phu kich het, khong ngimg ddi giam thul, khdi xudng viee cat ngan quy Obamacare ciing nhu mudn giam moi loai ngan sach. Yeu sach ciia hp dua vap ba true chinh:
chdng dao luat cai each y te Obamacare bang moi gia; giam chi tieu cdng dl giam tham hut ngan sach lien bang; thao tiing gidi tinh hoa tai Washington de tao mpt vi thi biet lap hem ciia My irong chinh sach ddi ngoai. Chu tjeh Ha vien John Boehner va cac lanh dao dang Cdng hda da gap rit nhilu khd khan kiem soat tam ly chong chinh phu len cao ciia nhdm Dang Tra trong cac cupc tranh luan kin d Ha vien.
Ngay 29/9/2013, Ha vien My bit chip ldi canh bao ciia Tdng thdng Barack Obama van thdng qua du luat tai chinh khan cap trong dd yeu cau dieu khoan tri hoan 1 nam luat y te Obamacare. Yeu cau nay da bi Thuang vien My cung dng Obama bac bd va gui tra lai du thao luat cho Ha vien. Tdng thdng gui thdng diep den Qudc hpi ndi rd dng se khdng bao gid nhupng bp cai each bap hiem y te va tuyen bd se phii quylt bat cii du luat nap Ipai bd dilu khpan hoan cap ngan sach cho chuang
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
trinh Obamacare, ke ca trudng hpp nd dupe Thuang vien thdng qua. Ong cap bude dang Cpng hda bien nudc My thanh con tin vdi nhung yeu sach chinh tri "cue doan", ddng thdi dng de nghi phe Cpng hda gia ban ke hpach ngan sach hi?n tai. Ngay tiep theo nd luc tam thdi day lui nguy ca ddng ciia chinh phii la nguy ca nudc My vd np neu tran np cdng khdng dupe nang chp phep chinh phii tiep tuc thanh tpan cac khoan np sau ngay 16/10.
Trong sudt cudc khung hoang kep nay Tdng thing Obama ludn giii: vung quan diem va tir chdi mpi yeu cau cua dang Cpng hda nham thay ddi chuang trinh cai each y tl. Bdi vi, nlu nhupng bp, ngan sach se nhanh chdng dupe thdng qua, nhung chinh sach ciia dang Cdng hda thang the, va ban than Tdng thing ciing nhu dang Dan chii danh mat vi the va quan diem chinh tri. Ong ludn khang dinh "khdng chip nhan tra tien chupc de md cua lai chinh phii va ciing khdng chip nhan tra tien chupc de nang trin np cdng" Vdi str hau thuan cua dang Dan chu tai Thuang vien, Tdng thdng Obama da vupt qua dupe ap lire tir dang Cdng hda va khang dinh dau an tpng thing qua chupng trinh Obamacare.
He luy doi voi nu-ffc My
Sau hon 10 ngay Chinh phii My dong cua da cd han 100 nghi sT cua dang Cpng hda muon thda hiep dl md cira chinh phu trd lai. Nhung Dang Tra vin
quyet liet phan dli Obamacare va phe Cpng hda van giii nguyen yeu cau ddi phai cd dieu khoan tri hoan bd luat cai each y t l Obamacare trpng bit ky ke hoach chi tieu nao cua chinh phu. Theo Business- Week, cac phe than nhdm Dang Tra tin cdng kich liet cac nghi si Cdng hda bd philu ung hd cho dao luat ngan sach giai ciiu chinh quyin. Ddng thdi trpng ndi bd dang Cpng hda ciing xuat hien mpt nhdm dai dien chp dpanh nghiep tim each lat dd nhiing nhan vat than Dang Tra. Hon nua, tilp tuc ddng cua se dan den viee nudc My vd np.
Trudc su cuong quyet cua Tdng thdng, dang Dan chu va nhiing ap luc tir ben trong npi bd dang Cpng hda, euli cimg hai ben ciing di din nhiing thda hiep can thiet de md ciia lai chinh phu.
Dang Dan chii ehi chap nhan dam phan vdi dieu kien Ha vien ddng y md cua lai chinh phu trudc.
Vao ngay 16/10/2013, khi chi cdn khdng day 2 gid dong ho trudc thdi khic nudc My bj rai vao vd np vi Bd Tai chinh khdng cdn tien tra no, hai dang tai Thupng vien da dat duac thda thuan ve du thao ngan sach. Du luat dupe chuyin chp Ha vien bupe Ha vien phai tiep bude, xem xet va phe chuin ngay trpng dem 16/10, trudc khi gui cho Tdng thdng Barack Obama ky thanh luat trudc khi kit thiic ngay thir nam 17/10/2013, la ngay Bd Tai chinh het tien dl tra np va chi tieu. D P khdng kip thdi gian thdng qua du luat chi tieu cho nam tai khda mdi, Quoc hpi My va Tdng thing
_CHAUMY NGAY NAY
Obama da phai chip thuan thdng qua mdt du luat chi tieu tam thdi trong ba thang (tir 17/10/2013 din 18/1/2014).
Nhu vay, dl chay dua vdi thdi ban, Thupng vien da bilu quylt du luat dai hang ngan trang chi trong hai ngay, va Qudc hpi My da phe chuin mdt du luat quan trpng dai ca nghin trang chi trpng bdn ngay. Thda thuan giai ciiu tai chinh nay da bd mdt sl dilu khoan chong Obamacare ma phe Dan chu khdng chip thuan, chim diit tinh trang chinh phii ddng cira va giup nudc My tranh dupe mpt cudc vd np tai chinh.
Ket cue nay dupe xem la chiln thing ciia ong Obama va dang Dan chu tai Thuang vien. Dang Cdng hda thua trong cupc dung dp nay vi khdng thi loai bd hpac it nhat la tri hoan dupe dap luat bao hiem y tl Obamacare. Thuc trang nay cOng lam bung phat dii dpi sir mau thuan ben trong npi bd dang Cdng hda va dan den nhiing bit ddng ngay cang nghiem trpng hpn. Td Washington Post da dat cau hdr "Ai la ngudi kiem soat phe Cdng hda?" va to bap nay tu tra ldi la "Khdng ai ca" de ndi vl tinh trang hdn loan Thep mpt sd hang tin My, Anh nhu The Washington Post, Bloomberg, The Guardian, viee mpt nhdm nghi si cue doan nhd nhu Dang Tra lai cd thi thao tung phe Cdng hda va khuynh loat chinh trudng My la vi hp dua duac vao nin tang tai chinh himg manh va sire anh hudng Idn trpng cac cudc bau cir.
Nhung chinh su quylt het va cue doan da lam tdn hai den hinh anh cua
dang Cdng hda, khien Dang Tra phai chap nhan dimg bude. Cudc dam phan d Ha vien sup dd hoan toan do ndi bp dang Cpng hda khdng thi thing nhit.
Chien thuat do nhdm cue doan Dang Tra vap phai su phan doi ciia chinh cac nghi sT Cdng hda khac. Theo AFP, tinh trang nay da lam Thupng nghi si Cdng hda Lindsey Graham da phai thot len "Cach chimg ta hanh xii va con dudng chung ta lua chpn trong nhiing tuin qua khiln ngudi dan My xa lanh dang Cdng hda.
Su bao thu ciia chung ta da vupt qua ngudng chiu dung"
Mac dii, mpi phan tich diu thira nhan Tdng thdng Obama la ngudi chiln thing trpng cudc ddi diu vi cuong quylt khdng chip nhan yeu sach cua dang Cdng hda va bude dang nay phai nhan thua. Tuy nhien, day chi la giai phap tam thdi de chan nguy ca vd np. Chiln thang nay khdng dam bao khic phuc dupe nhiing be tic cd tinh chu ky d Washington vi tren thuc te cac nha lap phap chua lam dupe gi de giai quylt tinh trang tai chinh.
Mdt dieu khdng thi phu nhan la nhilu ket qua tham dd trong thdi ky nay cho thay, uy tin cua chinh quyen Obama va Qudc hdi My da bi giam silt tram trpng.
Theo dieu tra ciia NBC News/Wall Street Journal cho thay ed tdi 60%
ngudi My dupe hdi mudn thay thi toan bd luang vien hien nay. Khap sat ciia Hang Gallup chp thay chi cd 11% ngudi My hai Idng vdi ca quan lap phap nudc nay, met ti le thip chua timg thay. Mpt
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
khap sat khac cua Hang Pew Research cho kit qua 81% ngudi My thit vpng vdi hudng di ciia dat nudc. Ty le tin nhiem ddi vdi ehinh quyen Obama da giam xuIng miic thip nhat trpng vdng ban 40 nam qua, vdi 18% hai Idng.
Theo khao sat cua bao Wall Street Jeumal va Hang tin NBC, 53% ngudi My cho rang dang Cdng hda phai chiu trach nhiem chinh vl tinh trang Chinh phu My bi ddng cira va suyt vd np. Sir c l chap va ich ky khien cd tdi 70%
ngudi dupe hdi chp rang dang nay dang dat lpi ich cue bd ciia hp len tren ca lpi ich qudc gia.
Cudc khung hpang chinh tri nay chp thay cac chi sd niem tin ehinh tri sut giam khdng don thuan phan anh nhirng khac biet ve quan diem hay bl tic ngan sach thuan tuy, ma the hien su bat ddng ndi bd sau sic rit khd ban gan, cung nhu dat ra nhiing cau hdi can ban ve cau triic va bien ddi chinh tri d thuang tang va ndi bp timg ding. Cd the ndi uy tin eua Qudc hdi My cung sa siit tram trpng.
Tap the lam luat tudng chimg vT dai nhit thi gidi nay bpe Id bl tac trpng hoat dpng CO ban va da khdng hpan thanh dupe kip thdi nhiem vu quan trpng nhat^ Ddng thdi, du chan cua cupc
khung hoang nay cdn anh hudng manh den uy tin ciia My tren the gidi va mang lai tam ly bi quan cho ngudi dan My •
Tai lieu tham khao :
1 Bob Woodward, The Price of Politics, Simon & Schuster, 2012.
2. Carl Meacham, "Government Shutdown:
What will It mean for the United States m the Americas?", CSIS.
3. Theda Skocpol va Vanessa Williamson, The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism, Oxford University Press, USA, 2013.
4 Thong tin tir truyen thong nhu nhat bao, tap chi, kenh truyen hinh va hang tin: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, CBS, NBC, AFP
5 Websites cua CSIS, Pew Research, Gallup Polls...
Chii thich:
I Thomas E Mann and Norman J. Omstein, Opmion. Five Myths about the m "
Congress, The Washington Post, Jan 4, 2013
2, Theda Skocpol va Vanessa Williamson, The Tea Party and the Remaking of Republican Conservatism, Oxford University Press, USA, 2013.
3. Carl Meacham, "Government Shutdown:
What will it mean for the United States in the Americas?", CSIS
