CHiNH T R j - A N NINH
NHIN LAI CHINH SACH "TAM NHIN 3000, PHI HAT NHAN HOA VA MGT CUTA"
CUA HAN QUOC DOI Vdl CHDCND TRIEU TIEN
PHAN THj ANH THlT
Tom tat "Tdm nhln 3000, phi hgt nhdn hoa vd md cua" duac coi Id budc ngodt quan trong trong chinh sdch an ninh - chinh tri cua Hdn Qudc ddi vdi CHDCND Triiu Tien. Vdi duang loi ngoai giao thuc dung theo kieu quan he "co dieu kien", Tdng thdng Lee Myung Bak da gdn kit vdn di gidi trie hgt nhdn tren bdn ddo Triiu Tien vdi muc tiiu phdt triin kinh te cua mien Bdc. Chu truang ndy tuang phdn hodn todn vdi cam kit trg giup vo diiu kien md hai Chinh quyen tiin nhiem Kim Dae Jung vd Roh Moo Hyun da theo duoi trong sudt mot thdp nien. Dii khdng dgt dugc kit qud hoa gidi lien Triiu vd bi len dn Id "budc thut liti" ciia ngogi giao Hdn Qudc nhung chinh sdch cua Lee Myung Bak vdn di lgi nhiiu bdi hoc hiru ich ve viec chon lua con dudng di ddng dan trong tiin trinh thdng nhdt ddn tdc.
Tir khoa: Lee Myung Bak, Han Qu6c, CHDCND TriSu Tien, Tim nhin 3000. Phi hat nhan hoa
1. Khai quat chinh sach cua Han Quoc doi vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien tru-^c t h ^ Tong thong Lee Myung Bali
Sau khi Chien tranh Lanh ket thuc, cac nha lanh dao Han Quoc dinh huong thay d6i tan goc re nen ngoai giao nuac nha theo xu huong coi ma va tu chii. Doi vai Han Quoc, van de doi mai toan dien, sau sac ITnh vuc ngoai giao, tu truoc, da duac Park Chung Hee khai xuang nho vao su "truang thanh"
nhanh chong cua kinh te dat nuoc. Tren co sa "thuyet chu the - thuyet tu cuang" cua ong, hang loat chinh sach doi ngoai mai cua Han Quoc ra dai tu thap nien 90 cua the ky XX diu mang trong minh lap truang dan toe tu chu. Tong thong Roh Tae Woo khep lai
thai ky "bang gia" trong quan he lien Trieu bang chinh sach "Ngoai giao phuang B5c"
vai muc tieu day manh tien trinh hoa giai dan toe va cai thien quan he voi cac nuac xa hpi chii nghia, trong do co CHDCND TriSu Tien. Theo do ket qua cu the dat dugc la,
"Hiep dinh co ban Bac - Nam" hay "Hiep dinh ve hoa giai, khong xam lugc, trao doi va hgp tac" da dugc ky ket (13-12-1991) vai tuyen bo khong su dung lire lugng vQ trang de chong doi lin nhau va giai quyet mpi bat dong nay sinh thong qua doi thoai'. Tuy nhien, khi CHDCND Trieu Tien cong khai y
Nghien ciiu sinh Ljch sir the gi6i, Dai hpc Hu6
Ministry of Unification (MOU), Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (1996), "Agreemenl on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North", The Major Documents on Intra-Korean Relations, pp. 200-207.
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djnh khong tuan thii theo Tuyen b6 chung ve phi hat nhan hoa Ban dao Trieu TiSn (1992) va don phuong rut khoi Hiep uoc Khong pha biSn vu khi hat nhan - NPT (1993), T6ng th6ng ke nhiem Kim Young Sam Iji de ra chien luoc "Ngoai giao moi" nham cting c5 chinh sach can du kem theo nhCing canh bao ve nguy co chien tranh, nguy co tuyet giao quan he thuang mai, du lich gitta hai nuoc. Do chiu anh hudng cua loi tu duy tir thoi ChiSn tranh Lanh, chinh sach "Ngoai giao moi" lam cho so luong cac cugc d6i thoai true tiep gitta Han Quoc va CHDCND TriSu Tien dimg lai d con so 15 so vai thanh tich 82 lan cua chinh phil tien nhiSm Roh Tae Wool Nam 1998, Kim Dae Jung len nam quyen a Han Quoc, tuyen bo tuyet giao v6i chinh sach ngan chan cua nguai tien nhiem, tiep c^n chinh sach loi keo chti dong, timg buac thay doi che do a mien Bac thong qua con ducfng hoa giai va hap tac kinh te.
Tir truyen ngu ngon "Gio BSc va Mat trai"
cua Aesop' Kim Dae Jung dua ra chinh sach ngoai giao "Anh duong" vai muc tieu van dong, loi keo mien Bac mo ctra va cai each xa hoi. Nho quan diSm nhSt quan trong viec thuc hien chinh sach bao dung voi CHDCND TriSu Tien, Han Quoc da mang lai mot bau khong khi than thien va coi ma chua ttmg co tren Ban dao Trieu Tien vai viec to chttc Hpi nghi Thugng dinh lien Trieu (2000) nhjm thuc day hoa giai va tai thong nhat; ngan chan doi dau gitta hai mien;
doan tu cac gia dinh ly tan va hap tac phat trien kinh te - xa hpi''. Nam 2003, vai cam kSt duy tri khuon kho ciia chinh sach "Anh duong", Tong thong ke nhiem Roh Moo Hyun de xuat chinh sach "Hoa binh va thinh vugng" va coi do la "chia khoa" cho ca ba v&l di: giai quySt cupc khiing hoang hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien, duy tri su on djnh cila moi quan he lien Trieu va thiet lap m6t trat tu hoa binh a khu vuc Dong BSc A.
Phuong cham hoa giai, tiep xuc nhe nhang va xay dung long tin da thuc day vi& ky ket
"Tuyen bo ve phat triln quan he lien Trieu, hoa binh, va thinh vugng" gitta Roh Moo Hyun va Kim Jong II tai Binh NhuBng (2007). Nho vao nfl Iuc nay, ngay ca khi nhung khiic mac ve van de hat nhSn ciia CHDCND Trieu Tien chua dugc thao go, so lugng cac cugc doi thoai song phuong vin khong ngung tang. Tinh tu thang 3 den thang 9 nam 2007, 113 cugc dam phan BSc - Nam da dugc tfl chuc, 74 thoa thuan dugc ky ket cung vai 10 cuflc dam phan lien Trieu cap bfl truong dugc trieu tap'. Vo'i kk qua nay, Han Quflc da cho thay xu huang hoa hgp, hoa giai la su lira chgn chil yeu trong tiln trinh hoa giai dan tpc voi CHDCND Trilu Tien suot gan hai thSp nien.
2. Chi'nh sach ciia Lee Myung Bak doi vol CHDCND Trilu Tien
Thang 2-2008, doanh nhan Lee Myung Bak chinh thttc nham chttc Tflng thong Han Quflc. Trai ngugc voi du doan nha lanh dao
' Choi WK (1997), "The Sad Fate of Icarus: The Kim Young Sam's Governments Policy toward North Korea", Korea and World Politics, 14 (2), pp. 189-212.
' Trong cSu chuydn, Mat treri thSng gio BSc trong cuoc thich dau ai cai dirpc Ao khoic cua ICt Ithdch. Trong lihi gi6 thoi mgnh chi khi^n ke bo hanh 6m khir khir chiic ao thi sire n6ng cua M | t triri khifin nguoi do ty coi bo chile io cua minh.
* White Paper on Korean Unification (1996), Peace and Cooperaiion, Chapter 1: Inter-Korean Summit and the Opening of a New Era of Reconciliation and Cooperation, 11. Progress of Inter-Korean Summit and the June 15 Joint Declaration, pp. 36-38.
* Korean Register (2007). Inter-Korean Relations, Vol.
12,No. l , p . 35.
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moi CO the or trong tinh thi "tiln thoai luong nan" vi phai lira chpn gitta ba phuang an:
"chien lugc ngan chan", "chien lupc loi keo"
hay su ket hgp cua ca hai chien lugc noi tren voi Bac Trilu Tien, Lee Myung Bak ttt dau da ap u y dinh cham dttt chinh sach "ngoai giao cho khflng" ciia Kim Dae Jung va Roh Moo Hyun. Dtr djnh nay cita Tflng thflng Lee xuat phat ttt thuc te Han Quflc da phai chi gin 1,9 ty USD de vien trg cho Bac Trilu Tien trong suflt bay nam (2000-2007)' nhung van de phi hat nhan hfla Ban dao Trieu Tien van con de ngo. Du quan he lien Trieu da co nhttng buoc tien vugt bac trong thoi ky cam quyen cua hai cuu tflng thflng nhung Lee Myung Bak vin cam ket tim kiem mflt giai phap moi cho cupc khung hoang hat nhan ciia CHDCND Trieu Tien, thilt lap CO chl hfla binh, phat triln kinh te miln Bac va xay dung cflng dflng kinh t l lien Trieu thflng qua hgp tac kinh tl va vien trg nhan dao.
Ngay ttt khi nham chuc vao dau nam 2008, Lee Myung Bak da chttng to lap truong theo dufli duorng Ifli doi ngoai hoa binh va hfla giai, khuyin khich CHDCND Trilu Tien ttt bo chttang trinh phat trien hat nhan tren ca sa ba nguyen tac: bai tru vu khi hat nhan, tang cuong giai phap dfli thoai, Han Quflc dong vai tro nong cot trong viec giai quylt xung dot gitta cac ben'. Tuy nhien, Tflng thflng Lee lai la mpt con nguoi vo cung song phang, ban than ong cung rat muc trung thanh voi chti nghTa thuc dung, do do, tinh than hoa giai va hop tac vcri
CHDCND Trieu Tien chi la "lop vo bpc"
ben ngpai chinh sach. Du cam ket se lay thai dp nhan nai va thanh that de tiep xuc vai mien Bac nhung Chinh phti ducmg nhiem vin thing thung ap dung duong Ifli cung ran vol CHDCND Trieu Tien ngay ca khi cuflc dam phan sau ben v l van dl hat nhan va quan he lien Trieu dang rai vao be tac. Vai viec chi trich "Anh duong", "Hoa binh va thinh vugng" la hai chinh sach sai nguyen tac va "dan phuang xoa dju", Lee Myung Bak da quyet tam thay thi cac chien lugc ngoai giao cii bang chinh sach "ngoai giao thuc dung" tren co sa tang cuong quan he voi cac nuac lang gieng trong khu vuc, thilc day hgp tac "cfl dieu kien" voi CHDCND Trieu Tien va nang cao vai tro cua Han Quoc tren truang quflc te. Chinh sach nay mang ten: "Tam nhin 3000, phi hat nhan hfla va mo cua". d day, "phi hat nhan hfla" tuc la giai quyet van dl hat nhan cua CHDCND Trieu Tien, "mfl cua" de cap den viec giup mien Bac xay dung quan he ngoai giao vofi My va Nhat Ban, ttt do tai hoa nhap vao cpng dong quflc te. Quan trpng nhat la, Lee Myung Bak cam ket nang cao thu nhap binh quan dlu nguoi ciia CHDCND Trieu Tien ttt 500 USD len 3000 USD trong vong 10 nam vai dieu kien tien quyet la nuac nay phai ttt bfl vtl khi hat nhan va mo cua nen kinh te*.
Chinh sach noi tren cfln bao gom ca mpt chuong trinh chi tiet nham hfl trg mien Bac o ca nam llnh vuc kinh te - xa hfli kem theo cac giai phap cu the tuong ttng: tai chinh (thuc day xuat khau), cflng nghiep (dao tao 300.000 cflng nhan), co so ha tang (xay dung
^ The Korean Ministry of Finance and Economy, Statical I'earfioofa. http;//www.unikorea.go.kr.
' Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea (2010), While Paper on Korean Uniftcalion, Chapter 1.
Establishing Principled Inter - Korean Relations, p. 5.
Lee's inaugural speech (25-02-2008) The Hanhyoreh, http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/_national/
271850.html.
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duong cao toe), chat lirong cupc song (dam bao an sinh xa hoi) va giao due (dau tu 40 ty USD thong qua quy hop tac quoc te)'. Duoi goc do kinh te, nen tang ly thuyet ciia chinh sach "Tam nhin 3000" bSt nguon tu thuc tiin cai each, ma cua dugc thuc hien bai cac nuac trong khoi xa hpi chu nghia vao cuoi nhung nam 1980 nhu Viet Nam hay Trung Quoc de hoa nhap vao moi trirong the giai.
Chinh quyin Lee Myung Bak xac dinh day la "lo trinh" phat trien tat yeu ma CHDCND Triiu Tien cung phai trai qua. "Tam nhin 3000" lira chpn giai phap "phi hat nhan hoa"
va "ma ciia" nham dan dat CHDCND Trieu Tien di theo xu huang chung nay cua Hch su.
Chinh sach "Tam nhin 3000, phi hat nhan hoa va mo ciia" khai nguon tu ke hoach ngoai giao "cimg co lpi, cung thinh vugng"
giiia Han Quoc va CHDCND Trieu Tien do Lee Myung Bak de xuong. Cam ket "cung CO lpi va cung thinh vupng" trong quan he lien Trieu dupc Bp truong Bo Thong nhat tuyen bo lan dau vao ngay 26-03-2008 va Tong thong Lee Myung Bak tai khang dinh tru6c Quoc hpi (11-07-2008) vai ngi dung
"lfu tien sd mot ciia Hdn Qudc trong chinh sdch vdi CHDCND Triiu Tien Id phi hgt nhdn hda Bdn ddo Trieu Tien trin ca sd tim kiim mot gidi phdp cung cd lgi cho cd hai ben " . Mong muon chia se ca hpi, cung ton tai va phat trien trong tuyen bo noi tren cua cac nha iSnh dao Han Quoc duac gai mo tu
' Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea (2010), White Paper on Korean Unification, President Lee's address on the 64''' Liberation Day on August 15, 2009, p.
11.
'*• Korea [nstitute for National Unification (2009), The Lee Myung-bak Government's North Korea Policy - A Study on Its Historical and Theoretical Foundation, p. 9.
y tuong "giao Iuu", "hgfp tac" ciia Hiep djnh co ban (1991). Khong thi phu nhan, sir phat trien dong thai ciia hai mien Nam - Bdc Trieu Tien tren co sor lgi ich chung va thinh vuang chung se gop phan gia tang hoa binh tren Ban dao Trieu Tien va tao ra tien de cho ki hoach tai thong nhat. Trong tien trinh do,
"Tam nhin 3000, phi hat nhan hoa va ma ciia" dupc xac dinh la ba giai phap chinh trj CO ban nham thuc hien duong loi phat triin Cling CO lpi cho ca hai ben. Muc tieu trong chinh sach cua Han Quoc la bien CHDCND Trieu TiSn trd thanh nen kinh tS dinh huang xuat khau va duy tri vien tra nhan dao nham phi hat nhan ban dao Trieu Tien, mo cua nha nuac mien Bac va hpp tac kinh te, cing ton tai" Tuy nhien, trong b6i canh CHDCND Trieu Tidn dang co tinh kim ham toe dp cai thien quan he hai mien vi lo ngai Han Qu6c CO the tai thong nhat bing giai phap thau torn, chinh sach cua Lee Myung Bak da huang den viec thuc hien hai nhiem vu: Mgt la, xoa bo mpi hoai nghi cua miSn Bac ve phuang an "thon tinh" nha nuac, thay d6i hf thong chinh tri va cau true quyen lire di thong nhat ban dao; hai la, duy tri lpi ich va su thinh vupng ciia hai mien thong qua con duang hpp tac va phat triin.
v i hinh thiic, chinh sach CHDCND Triiu Tien ciia Tong thong Lee van tuyet doi trung thanh vai giai phap van dpng, thuyit phuc Binh Nhuang cung phat triin va hpi nhap vao cpng dong qu6c ti. The nhung, xet ve ban chat thi day lai la mpt chinh sach "uu tien Han Qu6c" va "han chi CHDCND Trieu Tien". Truac het, chinh sach cua Lee
Korea Institute for National Unification (2009), The Lee Myung-bak Government's North Korea Policy - A Study on Its Historical and Theoretical Foundation, p. 10.
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Myung Bak dugc dua ra la ik cati bang va lap day nhQng thieu hut vS nguyen lieu va nguon nhan lire trong qua trinh phat triSn kinh te a Han Qudc. D6 thuc hien "chiSn lugc 7-4-7" (tang trucmg GDP hSng nam dat 7%; tang thu nhap binh quan dau nguoi len 40.000 USD/nam va dua Han Qu6c tro thanh nen kinh te 1cm thil 7 the gioi), nen kinh t6 lon hon 35 Ito so voi CHDCND Trieu Tien vto khao khat nguon khoang san trj gia 2,47 ty USD o phia B i c ' l K6 hoach
"phi hat nhan hoa, mcr ctra" von dugc phac thao dua tren co so tan dung nguon tai nguyen phong phil va lao dong doi dao ctia Inien Bac de thanh lap 5 khu kinh te tu do va duy tri hon 100 cong ty xuat khau cua hai mien voi kha nang thu ve It nhat 3 trieu USD gia tri hang hoa moi nSm. Hon the nira, tu ket qua cai thien quan he lien Trieu ciia chinh sach "Tam nhin 3000", cac tuyen giao thong huyet mach giQa hai miln co the dugc noi lai, tao dieu kien thuan lgi cho Han Quoc nhap khSu khi d6t va tai nguyen tir vitng Vien Dong nudc Nga (tham chi tir ca Chau Au) thong qua duong bo va xuSt khau hang hoa tren tuyen duong sit xuyen Siberia. Nhu vay, ciing voi qua trinh phuc hSi kinh te ctia CHDCND Tri6u Tien, Han Qu6c cung tim dugc mot dijm tira vQng chac de mo rong san xuat va chinh phuc dja vi nen kinh te lon cua the gioi.
V6 CO ban, chinh sach ngoai giao khon ngoan va co tinh toan ciia Tong thong Lee da danh cho Han Qu6c qua nhieu lgi the. No cung mang lai lgi ich kinh te cho CHDCND
'- Saisu. S. Korea Year Book, (2008), Democratic Consolidation and Foreign Relations Under Lee t^yiing, (Shaw Lin Chaw), p. 187.
Trieu Tien nhung voi dieu kien nuoc nay phai tir bo mgt muc tieu chinh tri lon hon la ngimg phat trien vu khi hat nhto. Viec yeu cau CHDCND Trieu Tien chit dpng tir bo vu khi hat nhto de ddi lay co hpi hgp tac kinh te voi Hto Quoc theo "hpc thuyet Myung Bak"
(MB Doctrine) ggi nhg din giai phap chinh tri "co di c6 lai" cua Kim Young Sam tu dau thap nien 90 ciia the ky XX. Tuy nhien so vdi thcri diem do, chinh sach CHDCND Trieu Tien hien nay cua Hto Quoc con cimg ran hon nhieu. Ngay sau khi dac cir Tong thong, Lee Myung Bak da giai the Bp Thong nhat - Co quan dau nao nam giu nhiem vu cai thien quan he lien TriSu vol ly do eto tai CO cau bg may htoh chinh cho gpn nhe, hieu qua va thirc te hon. Ke hoach nay da vap phai SIT chong d6i quySt liet ciia phe ctoh ta trong Quoc hpi (nhiing ngucti chu truong itng hg hai chinh phti tien nhiem Kim Dae Jung va Roh Moo Hyun). Qua trinh sap nhap Bp Thong nhat vao Bg Ngoai giao c6 the day liii nhQng n6 lire trong suot mot thap nien qua cua Hto Quoc nham hto gto quan he lien Trieu va tai thflng nhat dto tpc. Viec lam nay cilng khien CHDCND Trieu Tien tin rtog Hto Quflc dang cp y dong nhat moi quan he giQa hai miSn Trieu Tien (mpt vto de von phirc tap va nhay cam) voi nhQng vto de quoc te khac, dong thdi tach biet cac no lire da quflc gia nham phi hat nhan hoa ban dao Trieu Tien. De cung co chinh sach "Tam nhin 3000", chinh quyen Lee Myung Bak da kien quyet khep lai "thap ky mit mat" (10 nam vien trg vfl dieu kien cho CHDCND Trieu Tien) btog viec xem xet tit ca nhung cam ket da ky giua hai mien tir sau Hpi nghi thugng dinh lin thir nhat (6-2000) va Hpi nghi thuang dinh Ito thit hai (10-2007), bao
NGHIEN Cdu DdNQ BflC ti. SO 4(170) 4-2015
gom ca loi hiia vien trg htog ty do la My ciia Roh Moo Hyun cho CHDCND Trigu Tien trong cupc hpp nSm 2007. Ben canh dp, Hto Quflc con tinh den viec sua dfli chinh sach CO bto 5 nam (2008-2012) ve phat trien quan he lien Trieu tu thdi Roh Moo Hyun de phu hpp vdi muc tieu phi hat nhto hoa Bto dao Trilu Tien cua chinh sach "Tam nhin 3000".
Sir dieu chinh chinh sach cua Lee Myung Bak CO kha ntog kich dpng "chu nghia phieu luu" d mien Bac va day quan he hai mien roi vao cue dien dfli dto. Tuy nhien, khac vdi thai dp "bflc dong" trudc day, CHDCND Trilu Tien da khflng the hien bat cir phto ung cue doan nao vdi chuang trinh htoh dpng ciia Tong thong Hto Quflc tinh tu thdi diem Lee Myung Bak tranh cii den giai doan dto flng ctoi quyen. Dieu nay cho thay sir de dat va eto trpng ciia mien Bac dfli vdi mpi thay dfli chinh sach den tir Hto Quflc, ngay ca khi chinh sach ay nhim thiic day moi quan he "cd dieu kien" giua hai ben. Tren thuc te, quan he lien Trieu chi bat dto day sdng khi Hto Quoc lien tiep dua ra nhirng quan dilm cirng rin, dan phucmg gay ap lire vdi CHDCND Trieu Tien. Vol tuyen bo "tdc dQ phdt trien quan he lien Trieu tie nay duac quyet dinh bat nhung Hen bo trong chuomg trinh giai giap hat nhdn ciia Binh Nhudng"
(26-03-2008)'\ Bfl trudng Bfl Thong nhit Kiin Ha Joong da khiln CHDCND Trilu Tien nfli gito va co htoh dpng dap tra dto tien vdi viec ngto cam cac quan chirc Hto Quoc dat chto den khu cong nghiep chung Kaesong. Hem the nua, trong cupc dieu tran truoc Quflc hpi ve vu khi hat nhto d CHDCND Trieu Tien cua Tham mim
Trudng Quto dpi Kim Tae Young (27-03- 2008), Hto Quflc con khtog dinh: "Chiing toi biet dich xdc vi tri cdt giii vu khi hgt nhdn ctia CHDCND Trieu Tien vd se chit dqng tdn cong neu cdn thiet" . Dya vto hai tuyen bfl noi tren, CHDCND Trilu Tien dS cdng khai to eto chinh quyen Lee Myung Bak la ke
"btoi dufli" My, ke lira bjp chinh trj, ke phto bgi cam ket hop tto lien Trieu va tinh thin hda giai dto tpc'^
Ro rtog, nd luc han chl, tiln tdi phi hat nhto hda Bto dto Trieu Tien d3 thu dugc ket qua hoto toto trai ngugc. Dudi ap lire rto de va ngto chan ciia chinh quyen Lee Myung Bak, CHDCND Trieu Tien etog cd them "dgng lire" dl thiic day quylt liet hon, dflng bg han chuang trinh hat nhto cua minh. Btog chung la, ngay ngay 28-03- 2008, CHDCND Trilu Tien da dap tea chinh sach "Tam nhin 3000, phi hat nhto hda va md cita" cua Lee Myung Bak btog tuyen bo cit dut quan he lien Trieu, ngimg thto da cac Id phto irng hat nhto theo cam ket sau ben cua Hfli nghi nam 2007 va tien htoh vu thir ten Iila d bd biln phia Dflng thii dfl Binh Nhuang. Diu nam 2009, CHDCND Trilu Tien dan phucmg huy bo tat ca cac thda thuto ve quto sir, chinh tri vdi Hto Quflc, trong do bao gdm ca Hiep dinh ve phdng chflng tai nan dung dp tren biln da ky kit vdi cuu Tdng thdng Roh Moo Hyun vao nam 2004" Vdi nhQng budc liii trong quan
Yonhap News Agency (March 26, 2008), "I^inisler Vows to Raise Nuclear Issue tn Inter — Korean Dialogue ".
Joong Ang llbo (March 27, 2008), "North's Nukes on Attack Radar: New t^itilary Chief Says Plans Exist for Possible Pre-emptive Strive" (Kim Min Seok and Jung Ha Won).
'^ Ministry of Unification (2010), Understanding North Korea, Military Strategy and Capacity, Published by the Institute for Unification Education, p. 155.
"• Minisrty of National Defense (2010), Defense White Paper, p. 250.
NGHIEN Cdu SdNG BflC fl. SO 4(170) 4-2015
Nghien cihi khoa hpc
he lien Trieu, chinh quyen Kim Jong II da ket tpi Lee Myung Bak vi da uu tien quan he Hto Qudc - My, thanh lgc eto thi lire theo ducmg Ifli thflng nhat, dien tap chien tranh va gia ttog nguy co bat on chinh tri tren Bto dto Trieu Tien. Lo sg phto ling tieu cue cua Binh Nhudng cd thi dto den chien tranh, chinh quyen Lee Myung Bak da nhanh chdng thay ddi lap trudng ciing rin, kien quyet ban dto btog chit truong hda giai thdng qua ldi de nghi thiet lap vto phdng lien lac thudng true giQa hai nudc. Hto Quoc ctog bay td mong mufln tai khdi dgng eto cupc dam phto lien Trieu nham "ha nhiet" mfli quan hfl song phuang dang ngay ctog ctog thtog. Dtog tiec la, tuyen bfl ndi tren ctia Tdng thdng Hto Qudc tren td Buu dien Washington (4-2008) da bi CHDCND Trieu Tien thing thimg bto bd. Sir chi trich ciia CHDCND Trilu Tien bat ngudn tir thirc tl mien Bto vto cdn hoai nghi ve mQc dp chto thtoh cua Lee Myung Bak khi dng chu ddng phat ngdn trong mpt cudc phdng vin ciia gidi truyin thflng My ma khflng thflng qua y kiln cua Binh Nhudng. Han nua, CHDCND Trilu Tien cdn chp ring Hto Quflc dang cfl tinh ha thip mdi quan he lien Trieu bing ctoh dua "ngoai giao dac biet"
giua hai ben xuflng mile "ngoai giao thflng thudng" va dflng nhit CHDCND Trilu Tien vdi nhiing qudc gia xa la khto. Chinh vi
"mac cam" va thieu Idng tin, nha Itoh dao Kim Jong 11 da coi de xuat md lai kenh dfli thoai thudng xuyen giQa Seoul va Binh Nhudng la chieu bai ctia Lee Myung Bak nhim phi hat nhto hda Bto dto Trilu Tien va don phutmg thdng nhat dto tgc.
Sir that bai ciia chinh stoh giai tru hat nhto da keo theo ket cue do vo ciia mdi quan he "cd di cd lai" vdi CHDCND Trieu Tien.
Tir chfl kich liet len to eto khoto vien trp
"cho khflng" ciia Kim Dae Jung va Roh Moo Hyun, chinh quyen Lee Myung Bak nay ciing phai phe chuto khoto hd trg 50.000 tto ngfl cho CHDCND Trieu Tien va dflng y ndi lai hoat dflng vien trg luong thuc ngay ca khi chua nhto dugc ldi de nghi tu nudc nay. Do ducmg Ifli dfli ngoai ciia Lee Myung Bak ngay tu diu da qua cung nhic va thyc dung nen viec dieu chinh chinh stoh vto thdi diem quan he lien Trieu dang "xuflng dfle" nghiem trgng ciing chi la giai phap tinh the, mang tinh "chap va". Do dac diem nay, chinh stoh ddi ngoai dfli vdi CHDCND Trieu Tien ctia Hto Quflc lien tuc thay doi, tham chi cdn bi cufln theo nhimg dien bien phirc tap ve an ninh - chinh tri giua hai nude thay vi thye hien nhiem vu dieu tiet va eto btog quan he.
Tinh chat "dao dflng" nay bieu hien kha rd thong qua ctoh Qng phd ciia Hto Qudc vdi hai sy kien chinh tri dien ra vto citng mpt ngay. Trpng phat bieu ve Chinh stoh CHDCND Trilu Tien ciia Hto Quflc trudc Quflc hfli (11-7-2008), Lee Myung Bak tuyen bfl; "Cdc cuoc dot thoal day dti giUa hat mien Trieu Tien cdn phdi duqc tiep tuc vd Hdn Quoc sdn sdng tham gia trien khai cdc thoa thuan lien Trieu dd duqc ky kit trong Tuyen bo chung ngdy 15-6-2000 vd Tuyen bo ngdy 04-10-2007 glUa cdc Tong thong Hen boi ciia Hdn Quoc val nhd lanh dgo Kim Jong-ll"". The nhung, ngay khi mdt nQ du khtoh 53 tufli ciia Hto Qudc bj
" Korea Herald, (July 12, 2008), "Lee announces North Korea policy shift".
NGHIEN Cdu OONG B^C 4 Sd 4(170) 4-2015
quto dpi CHDCND Trieu Tien bto chet etog ngay vi vugt qua ranh gidi quto sy gitta hai nudc, Lee Myung Bak da lap tuc dinh chi chuang trinh du lich d khu nghi mat niii Kumgang (mpt trong nhQng ngufln thu ngoai te chii yeu cita CHDCND Trieu Tien) de trimg phat nudc nay vi da giet hai cdng dto Hto Quflc. Trong Itic CHDCND Trieu Tien do ldi cho Hto Qudc ve sy cd ndi tren, dflng thdi bto bd dl nghi cua Lee Myung Bak ve viec duy tri cuflc dfli thoai lien Trieu trong bai phat bieu ngay 11-7 thi chi hai thtog sau, Hto Quflc da cho phep cflng dto ciia minh ty do di lai tren khu vyc bien gidi.
Vi quyet dinh nay, du luan thtog thto dtoh gia chinh phu nudc nay khdng he kien dinh vdi bat ky giai phap chinh tri nto nham xoay chuyen cue dien tfli te ciia quan he lien Trieu. Ctoh giai quyet vto de theo kieu
"nudc dfli" va bat nhat cua Lee Myung Bak khiln cho Hto Quflc gap khdng it khd khto trong viec tim kiem mflt giai phap an toto va hieu qua trong vin de CHDCND Trieu Tien.
TQ thdi diem cudi nam 2008, Hto Quflc mflt Ito nua quay trd lai vdi dudng ldi ddi ngoai cimg rin vdi hai bieu hien: mdt la, "phdt lo"
eto cam ket da ky vdi CHDCND Trieu Tien ngay trong dip ky niem mflt nam Hpi nghi thypng dinh lien Trieu (10-2008); hai la, dua ra thdng diep: "khong. lai dung quan he lien Trieu Tien vdo muc dich chlnh tri" nhung
"setlip tuc chlnh sdch CHDCND Triiu Tien ciia chlnh quyen hien thai" - tuyen bfl ciia Lee Myung Bak vdi eto quan chuc Bg Thflng nhit (06-12-2008)". Lap trudng cung
rto ndi tren va ket cue khiing hotog quan hS lien Trieu da day len Ito sdng phto ddi chinh stoh cua Hto Qudc vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien trong bp phan eto chinh trj gia cip tiln.
Ngay 30-12-2008, trong cudc hgp khin cua Qudc hgi, ca ba lye lugng dtog phai ddi Mp thdng nhat dua ra nghj quylt chung yeu ciu Chinh phti Lee Myung Bak phai lap tuc thay ddi chinh stoh CHDCND Trilu Tien. Din thdi dilm nay, "Tam nhin 3000" lai trd thtoh ap lye chinh trj doi vdi chinh quyln Lee Myung Bak trong viec tiep can Bic Trieu Tien va duy tri dfli thoai song phuang ma khdng phai hy sinh nhiing nguyen tac cdt ldi ban dto cua chinh stoh.
3. Danh gia ve chinh sach ciia Lee Myung Bak ddi vol CHDCND Trilu Tien
Nhin lai tien trinh hda giai dan tdc, khflng kho de nhan ra quan he lien Trieu gto nhu khflng cd budc tien nto dang kl tinh tir thtog 02-2008. Thyc t l nay da phto toh kit qua chinh stoh ddi vdi CHDCND Trieu Tien cua Hto Qudc dudi thdi Lee Myung Bak.
Ngay tit diu, chinh phu Lee da tuyen bfl phi hat nhto hda CHDCND Trilu Tien la uu tien htog dto trong chinh stoh cua minh va tim each Iflng ghep vin de kinh te vdi nhung tiln bd ve an ninh - chinh tri. So vdi hai tflng thdng tien nhiem, thay ddi Idn nhit trong chinh stoh CHDCND Trilu Tien cua Lee Myung Bak la ldng ghep quan he lien Trilu vao vto dl hat nhto cua CHDCND Trilu Tien va "xet lai" eto chuemg trinh hop tto giQa hai bfln nhim giam bdt gtoh nang tai chinh cho Hto Quflc. No luc kien tao mgt nen hda binh khflng cd vu khi hat nhto dua
"President to Maintain Current N. Korea Policy"
(December 6, 2008), http://english.hani.co.kr/
arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/326045.html.
10 NGHIEN CUU OONG BflC fl. SO 4(170) 4-2015
Nghien cihi khoa hpc
tren nguyen tto "cd di cd lai" da tac dgng tieu cyc den quan he lien Trilu va tiln trinh hop tto song phuong. Cd thi thiy, viec thuylt phuc CHDCND Trilu Tien tu bd chuong trinh hat nhto dl nhto liy nhQng khoto vien trg kinh te quy md ldn tu Hto Quflc, ngay tu dto, da khflng phai la mgt giai phap kha thi bdi 18 thanh cdng trong viec giai quyet vin dl hat nhto khflng chi chju toh hudng tu eto tuyen bd cua Hto Qudc ma phu thupc chd ylu vto qua trinh dam phan giua My va CHDCND Trieu Tien. Dilu nay cd nghia la vto de CHDCND Trieu Tien chi dugc giai quyet khi tinh hinh an ninh cda nudc nay dugc dam bto va hoat ddng vien trg quflc te dugc duy tri. Nd lye "che ngy"
Bto Trieu Tien cua Lee Myung Bak da dugc Kim Jong II dap tra bing viec vd hieu hda eto thda thuan da ky ket giQa hai mien tai Hdi nghj thugng dinh vto eto nam 2000 va 2007.
Xuit phat tu nhto thuc chinh stoh can dy ciia eto tdng thdng tiln nhiem khong du sue cdng pha "rto chin hat nhto" cita CHDCND Trilu Tien, Lee Myung Bak da thyc thi chinh stoh "Tim nhin 3000, phi hat nhto hda va md cQa" nhim thay dfli dien mao kinh t l va quan diem chinh trj ciia mien Bto.
Tuy nhien, duong ldi dfli ngoai thuc dung va tinh toto ciia Hto Quflc da khdng tttoh khdi kit cue dfl bl do thai dp bit hgp tto ciia chinh quyln Kim Jong II. Nhttng tuyen bd ciia Tdng thflng Lee Myung Bak ve viec gto vien trg nhto dao, hgp tto kinh t l vdi giai trir vu khi hat nhto da Iam cho CHDCND Trilu Tien phta ilng quylt liet va quay Itmg vdi dam phto lien Trilu. Hgc thuylt Myung Bak phto toh qua ro nguyen tic ngoai giao
thep kieu "cay gay va cu ca rdt". Tuy nhien, sy md phdng nay lai khflng phu hgp vdi mfli quan he vdn nhay ctoi va phuc tap nhu hai miln Nam - CHDCND Trilu Tien. Chinh stoh rto de va ngan chto ciia Hto Quflc, rd rtog, thich hgp de giai quyet nhirng vto de ndi bg ciia dat nudc hon la mang lai lgi ich chien lugc cho ca hai qudc gia vdn phai gtoh chju tinh ctoh phto chia va phu thudc. Vdi viec cdng khai chi trich tinh trang nhto quyen d Bto Trieu Tien va dto ngugc chinh stoh ciia hai ngudi tien nhiem, Lee Myung Bak da phuc dyng nguyen trang bfli ctoh Chien tranh Lanh ngay tren Bto dto Trieu Tien va phai hung chju Ito sdng phfa dfli chinh stoh d ca hai miln.
4. Thay ldi kit
Nhin lai hon hai thap nien ke tir sau Chien tranh Lanh, htog loat chinh stoh ddi vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien da lin lugt ra ddi nhim thyc hien sir menh duy nhat la thdng nhat bto dto Trilu Tien. Tuy nhien, qua trinh khdi xudng chinh stoh d Hto Quflc, thyc chat, Iai la qua trinh thu nghiem rfli thay dfli chinh stoh, chu khdng phai la sy ke thua va dieu chinh nd mdt ctoh cd he thdng.
Vdi dac diem nay, chinh stoh an ninh - chinh tri cua Hto Qudc vdi CHDCND Trilu Tien khflng thyc sy the hien bto chat ciia mdt chinh stoh dfli ngoai ma chi phto anh quan diem va lap trudng cua ca nhto nha cim quyen. TQ mflt muc tiflu "nhit quto" la thflng nhat dto tpc, eto the he Itah dap Hto Quflc da cd qua nhieu ctoh tiep can vto de khto nhau. Sy xen ke gitta chu truong hda giai, nhto nhugng cua eto Tdng thdng Roh Tae Wpp, Kim Dae Jung va Roh Moo Hyun vdi giai phap cung rfa, thyc dung theo kilu
"Tam nhin 3000" (Lee Myung Bak) va trudc
NGHIEN CUU DONG BflC fl. SO 4(170) 4-2015
H
do la "Ngoai^ giao mai" (Kim Young Sam) ichien Han Quoc mat Idiong it thai gian &h idioi phuc Icet qua hoa giai Hen Trieu sau moi dgt chuyen giao quyen lire. Day la diem yeu lon nhat ciia ngoai giao Han Quoc khi nuac nay buac sang giai doan dgc lap va ty chu ve chinh sach doi ngoai tir sau Chien tranh Lanh. Den thcri diem nay, chinh sach an ninh - chinh tri cua Han Quoc van chua the noi la thanh cong khi bat on quan sir tren Ban dao Trieu Tien van keo dai va su nghiep thong nhat dan tgc con dang da. Thuc te ay doi hoi Han Quoc can phai tung buac dieu tiet va can bang quan diem ca nhan ciia cac lanh dao nham gia tang su nhat quan trong chinh sach doi voi CHDCND Trieu Tien.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Ministry of Unification (MOU), Republic of Korea, White Paper on Korean Unification (1996), "Agreement on Reconcihation, Nonaggression, Exchanges and Cooperation between the South and the North", The Major Documents on Intra-Korean Relations.
2. Choi WK (1997), "The Sad Fate of Icarus: The Kim Young Sam's Governments Policy toward North Korea", Korea and World Politics, U (2).
3. White Paper on Korean Unification (1996), Peace and Cooperation, Chapter 1:
Inter-Korean Summit and the Opening of a New Era of Reconciliation and Cooperation, II.
Progress of Inter-Korean Summit and the June 15 Joint Declaration.
4. Korean Register (2007), Inter-Korean Relations, Vol I2,No.l.
5. The Korean Ministry of Finance and Economy, Statical Yearbooks; http://www.
unikorea.go.kr.
6. Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea (2010), White Paper on Korean Unification, Chapter 1. Establishing Principled Inter - Korean Relations.
7. Lee's inaugural speech (25-02-2008) The Hanhyoreh, http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/englis h_edition/e_national/271850.html.
8. Ministry of Unification, Republic of Korea (2010), White Paper on Korean Unification, "President Lee's address on the 64"^
Liberation Day on August 15, 2009".
9. Korea Institute for National Unification (2009), The Lee Myung-bak Government's North Korea Policy - A Study on Its Historical and Theoretical Foundation.
10. Saisu. S. Korea Year Book (2008), Democratic Consolidation and Foreign Relations Under Lee Myung (Shaw Lin Chaw).
11. Yonhap News Agency (March 26, 2008),
"Minister Vows to Raise Nuclear Issue in Inter - Korean Dialogue "
12. Joong Ang llbo (March 27, 2008),
"North's Nukes on Attack Radar: New Military Chief Says Plans Exist for Possible Pre-emptive Strive" (Kim Min Seok and Jung Ha Won).
13. Ministry of Unification (2010), Understanding North Korea, Military Strategy and Capacity, Published by the Institute for Unification Education.
14. Minisrty of National Defense (2010), Defense White Paper.
15. Korea Herald (July 12, 2008), "Lee aimounces North Korea policy shift".
16. "President to Maintain Current N. Korea Policy" (December 6, 2008), http://english.
hani .co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/3 26 045.html.
