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DIEN DAN TRAO DOI
KHUNG HOANG KINH TE THE GlOl VA VAI TRO CUA CAC N U 6 C LOiN *'
GS. TSKH. V 6 DAI LJCiC
Nguyen Vien trUdng Vien Kinh te' the' gidi
Since the fourth quarter of 2008, especially in first three months of 2009, the world economy witnessed serious worsening signs. Until now, the crisis storm has spread over all countries around the world, including those economies that have been expected to stand firm on their feet... Particulariy notable is the fact that this crisis has appeared still not to hit its bottom, thus the scope and range ^ of its impacts cannot be practically measured and foreseen. Hence, there exist two scenarios: firstly, it deals with the greatest global economic crisis since the Great Depression (1929-1933) but with less- er caliber and signiTicance; secondly, this is a global economic crisis of the Great Depression's stature or even greater. Although there are not, so far, sufficient foundation and justification for the second scenario, a wise gov- ernment with long-lime vision should not ignore it.
Current economic crisis has brought about many issues of global char- acter, such as: world-wide order, US - China alliance, world war, local wars and economic wars; development models; and factual effects of measures taken by the governments... In fact, the alleged culprits of current crisis are largely attributed to three economic centers of the world, i.e. US, Japan and EU and solution packages to get out from crisis appeared to originate just from these economies.
1. Khung hoang kinh te the gidi:
mot so nhan djnh va danh gia
TQ quy IV/2008, dae biet I I 3 thing dau nIm 2009, tinh hinh kinh te the gidi da ed dl'u hieu xl'u di rd ret. Td'e dp tang trQdng gilm manh hfln so vdi dau nam 2008, kim ngach thQflng mai gilm sut d hau khap ele nQdc, kinh te cung bat dau suy g i l m , dae biet II nhQng nganh cdng nghiep try cot, sd cdng ty p h i sin gia tang, sd ngQdi that nghiep tang manh. Cle gdi cQu trfl eua nhieu Chfnh phu lien tiep dQflc
"tung" ra nhQng t i e ddng thQc te chQa rd, Idng tin eua x l hdi tiep tue suy gilm. Cfln bao da trIn vIo tl't e l cle nQdc, ke c l cle nen kinh te dQpe ky vpng ed the tru vQng nhQ Trung Qude, An Dp,...
Dieu ding ILAJ y la d l y eua eudc khung holng nly v l n chQa xua't hien, do vly, tam cd t i c ddng cua cupc khung holng den d l u chUa the ed nhQng dQ blo ding tin ely.
Cd the cd hai khi nang xly ra:
Thitnhat, day la mpt cupc dai khung hoang kinh te toan cau Idn nha't ke td sau cupc dai khung hoang 1929-1933, tuy nhien mQc
( ' Trich bai trinh bdy tgi HSi thao quoc te " Khung hoang tai chinh toan cau - kinh nghiem cua Han Quoc va bai hoc cho Viet Nam", do Trung tam Thong tin va DU bao Kinh te - xa h&i Quoc gia - Bo ke hoach va E»u tU phoi hop va TrUflng Quan ly va Chinh sdch cOng - Vi6n Phdt trien Han Qu6c to chQc thang 5/200?,
LggBBaaT'PPH.<rJ<cadyfciijjrJ,e!idijdeMijiji.jBgsg);
dp va tam cd cua eudc khung holng hien nay kem hfln so vdi cupc khung holng 1929-1933.
Ve mQc dp, cupc khung holng 1929-1933 khien cho sin xua't cua the gidi gilm 44%, tham chi d mpt sd nQdc g i l m tdi 50-60%, kinh te the gidi tut lui 20-30 nam, sd ngQdi that nghiep len tdi 30-40 trieu ngQdi, chi sd Down Jones cua My tfnh de'n thing 7/1932 g i l m 89%, kinh te My tang trQdng am keo dai 10 nam...
Cupc khung holng lan nay cd the khdng dat tdi mdc dp dd. Ly do la
nen sin xua't thQc gdm cdng nghiep, ndng nghiep, mdt sd nganh dich
vu... vdi nhQng cdng nghe tfnh toln dQ bao hien dai, cd the tfnh dQflc
cung - cau, do vay, sQ suy g i l m cd the cd nhQng se khdng Idn nhQ eudc
khung holng 1929-1933. Cle ehi sd chQng kholn gilm 80-90%, tang
trQdng kinh te I m tdi e l mdt thap ky cung I I dieu khd ed the nghT tdi.
Cupc dai khung h o l n g 1929-1933 ve cfl b i n I I cupc dai khung h o l n g thda hang hda, d i n tdi khung h o l n g t l i ehfnh - tien te, do v l y mQc dp tan p h i khac vdi cupc khung hoang hien nay - khdng cd tinh chat cua mpt cupc khung hoang thda hang hda.
0 mdt khfa canh khac, eudc khung holng 1929-1933 I I cupc khung holng ve the che v l ket cl'u kinh te, vdi nghTa I I kinh te thi trQdng da hoan toln tQ do h i n h ddng, dQdng nhQ khdng ed sQ dieu tiet d i n g ke eua Nha nQdc, ket cl'u kinh te ehu yeu dQa tren ky thult cfl - dien; sQ p h I t trien cua the che kinh te thi trQdng tQ do v l ky thult cfl - dien da tdi gidi han nen khdng the tiep tue. NhQ v l y , cupc khung holng kinh te 1929-1933 da cha'm dQt thdi dai kinh te thi trQdng tQ do v l ky thu|t cfl - dien, dQa the gidi tdi mdt thdi dai mdi la kinh te thi ta/dng cd sQ dieu tiet eua N h i nQdc v l nen ky t h u l t cfl - dien tQ.
Vay cupc khung h o l n g kinh te lan n l y lieu ed d tam cd dd khdng?
Ve the che kinh te, khdng ed k h i nang n I o cha'm dQt the che kinh te thi trQdng ed sQ dieu tiet, ngQfle lai, ehi cd k h i nang gia tang sQ dieu tiet cua N h i nQdc d mQc hop ly n I o d d ; chQa cd k h i nang ehi'm dQt nen van minh cdng nghiep, chuyen ban sang nen van minh kinh te tri thdc, nhQng ed k h i n l n g chuyen manh hfln sang v l n minh cdng nghiep ky thuat cao. Do v l y , theo nhieu dQ b l o , d i n h g i l , khung h o l n g kinh te lan n l y du Idn cung khd vQflt qua cupc khung h o l n g 1929-1933 I I
CO CO s d .
Thd hai, day la cupc khiing hoang kinh te toan cau d tam cd 1929- 1933 va cd the cdn cao han.
Hien nay, nen kinh te the gidi ve cfl b i n v l n I I nen kinh te cdng nghiep, tieu dung tai nguyen khdng t l i tao, g l y d nhidm mdi trQdng n|ng ne, nang sul't n g l y d n g g i l m , e l e vl'n de x l hdi n g l y d n g bQc xue...
Nen kinh te cdng nghiep n l y d l tdi gidi han p h l i ehi'm dQt vl t l i nguyen
40-1 50 nam nQa (vdi tdc dp tang trQdng 3-4% nam). Mdi trQdng bi p h i hoai den mQc khdng the tiep tue: t r I i dl't ndng len, tang dzdn da thung, e l e ngudn nQdc ngpt dang can kiet. Quy dl't canh t i e bi thu hep; nang suit lao dpng n g l y d n g g i l m , tdc dp tang trQdng lien tue g i l m dan tQ 5% d t h | p ky 60, ehi cdn dQdi 3% trong thap ky 90 v l thap ky n l y ed the ehi dat 2%.
Ben canh dd, nhieu vl'n de xa hpi bQc xue chQa cd eleh g i l i quye't nhQ: chenh lech g i l u ngheo, ehu nghla khung bd; xung dot sac tpe v l tdn g i l o . . .
Ldi tholt cho nhQng vl'n de n l y khdng eleh gl k h l e I I cai each the che va ddi mdi cdng nghe. Tuy nhien tren thQc te, c l hai dinh hQdng n l y deu td ra be t i e , vl Ipi feh eua e l c tap d o l n , c l e chfnh k h i c h chu yeu v l n gan ke't chat che vdi the che va cdng nghe hien h i n h ma neu thay ddi hp se mat di vi the v l Ifli feh. Dieu dd g i l i thfch tai sao c l e n h i khoa hpc tam ed doat g i l i Nobel d My cung ehi ed thu nhap hang nam khoing vai tram nghin USD, thua xa so vdi thu nhap cua mpt cau thu bdng d l gidi, d n g q u i thi'p so vdi thu nhap cua e l e ehfnh k h i c h v l dai gia. NhQng ngQdi sing tao ra e l e y tQdng phIt trien chQa dQpc trpng dung d khap nPi, l l m sao the gidi ed the phIt trien? Lieu cupc khung.holng kinh te lan n l y ed tdi mQc day e l e dai gia v l ehfnh k h i c h v I o c h i n tQdng de thay ddi cdng nghe v l the che.
Neu eudc dai khung holng kinh te lan n l y md dau cho mpt thdi ky ddi mdi can b i n dd, thi nd se ed tam cd eua cupc dai khijng holng 1929-1933, v l se I I n h i n td sing
DIEN DAN TRAO DOI ^
tao ra mdt thdi dai p h I t trien mdi eua n h i n loai.
Cho den nay chQa cd du can cQ khang dinh k h i n l n g thQ hai eua eudc khung h o l n g , nhQng mdt Chfnh phu ed tam nhin xa khdng the bd qua k h i n l n g thQ hai n l y .
2. Tac dong cua cuoc khung hoang kinh te toan cau hien nay
T i e ddng de n h | n thi'y nhat eua eudc khung h o l n g kinh te hien nay I I : tdc dp tang trQdng kinh te va xul't nhap khau g i l m , l l n sdng p h i s i n cdng ty d i n g eao, ty le that nghiep t i n g h I n g n g l y . . . NhQng tdn that do cupc khung h o l n g n l y g l y ra Qdc khoing 50-60 nghin ty USD (tQflng dQflng vdi GDP toan eau) vdi mQc dp t i e dpng n g l y d n g nghiem trpng hfln, pham vi t i e ddng ngay d n g lan rdng v l hien da bao trum hau het c l e n g l n h kinh te, e l e qude gia, tham ehf dang chuyen tQ kinh te den xa hdi, chfnh tri, quan he qud'c te...
The gidi dang ky vpng v I o sQ tru vQng eua kinh te Trung Qudc, vl nQdc nay ed dQ trQ ngoai te Idn (2.000 ty USD), xul't sieu eao, thi trQdng Idn,... NhQng neu nhin lai eudc khung h o l n g 1929 thi ed the thi'y kinh te My trQdc dd cung d l ed xul't sieu Idn nhl't the gidi, dQ trQ ngoai te b l n g dau the gidi, v l y m l da l l m v I o khung h o l n g nang ne nha't, tang trQdng am gan nhQ e l thap ky. Neu kinh te Trung Qude l l m v I o mdt cupc khung h o l n g Idn, thi t i e ddng eua eudc khung h o l n g n l y ddi vdi kinh te the gidi se khdng nhd v l se lam cho eudc khung h o l n g kinh te the gidi hien nay s l u d | m hfln nQa.
Cupc khung hoang nay cd lam trat tu the gidi thay doi? Neu kinh te My suy yeu tram trpng nha't.
trong khi c l e nQdc k h l e , dae biet I I Trung Qude, ft suy yeu hfln, thi ed k h i n l n g Trung Qud'c se vQfln len nhanh hfln sau khung h f l i n g v l cd the trat tQ the gidi se chuyen ddi theo hQdng da cQc hfln cd Ifli cho Trung Qude. NhQng neu Trung Qud'c lam v I o khung h o l n g nghiem trpng hfln M y , t h i se khdng cd cfl hdi de vQflt len tren My. Tuy nhien, van cdn k h i nang thQ ba khdng the loai trQ, dd la: vl M y ed nhieu tiem nang hfln c l ve khoa hpc, cdng nghe v l y tQdng p h I t trien, neu bj ddn vao chan tQdng, M y se p h l i c l i each manh hfln, ddi mdi nhieu hfln, nen cd the sdm t h o l t ra khdi khung h o l n g v l bQde v l f l thdi ky p h I t trien mdi, v l do v l y v l n ed the duy tri ngdi vi b l n g dau the gidi.
My - Trung cd the lien minh chat che ban, hay se Idng leo han^ Day cung I I mdt d u hdi quan trpng. Cho de'n nay quan he M y - Trung tuy khdng ehfnh thQc la mdt lien minh, nhQng rd rang sQ hflp t i c M y - Trung da lien tuc gia tang, tQ hflp t i c vu viec dang tien tdi hpp t i c chien iQflc va hinh thanh cfl che hpp t i e d d p thQflng dinh, cap phd tdng thd'ng, trao ddi d p chie'n iQfle, hflp t i c kinh te t o l n dien, trQ hai iTnh vQc ed mQc ban che hfln dd I I chuyen nhQflng cdng nghe cao v l cdng nghe qude phdng chien iQflc. Cupc khung h o l n g lan n l y cd the gia tang cang thang trong quan he mau dich Trung - My, nhQng M y va Trung Qud'c chac chan se p h l i hflp t i c chat che hfln de g i l i quye't c l e vl'n de do eudc khung h o l n g kinh te hien nay dat ra. Mdt bieu hien cua sQ dieu chinh nay la Ngoai trQdng M y H. Clinton di tham Ddng A dau tien, ma trpng
d i e m la t h I m Trung Qud'c. Neu quan he Trung - M y p h I t trien theo chieu hQdng hflp t i c c h | t che hfln, thi trat tQ qude te se di theo mpt hQdng dieu ehinh mdi: M y se khdng mpt minh quyet dinh the gidi nhQ trQdc, ma se cung Trung Qudc ehi phd'i the gidi. Trong trQdng hflp chieu hQdng n l y thQc sQ didn ra, thi ehfnh sleh cua eac qud'c gia se p h l i cd nhQng dieu
chinh thfch hpp.
Khung hoang kinh te the gidi lan nay lieu cd din den chien tranh the gidi, chien tranh cucbp, hay chien tranh kinh fe? Cupc dai khung h o l n g kinh te the gidi 1929-1933 da d i n den chien tranh the gidi thQ hai, vl m l u thuan giQa e l c nQdc de qud'c d l khdng the x d ly dQflc b l n g ddi thoai, do v l y chien tranh trd thanh mpt g i l i p h l p . Dau tien I I chien tranh kinh te - e l e qude gia thQc thi chfnh sach b l o hd. Khi b l o hp trd t h I n h qudc s l e h eua mpi nQdc, thi thQflng mai the gidi rfli vao t i n g trQdng a m , cang lam cho khung h o l n g sau dam hfln. Ldi t h o l t luc dd la chuyen tQ chien tranh kinh te sang chien tranh quan sQ - dai chien nd ra, thi trQdng the gidi dQflc p h I n chia lai bang chien tranh, sau dd theo Hiep dinh chung ve Thue quan v l M | u dich (GATT), Unh vQc tien te dQpe dieu chinh bdi Quy Tien te Qude te (IMF).
Cupc khung hoang kinh te lan nay da xua't hien nhQng chieu hQdng b l o hp, mac du mpi qude gia deu len tieng phe p h l n . Lan b l o hp nay khdng p h l i b l n g ehfnh s l e h thue quan va phi thue quan, ma bang ehfnh s l e h trfl cap, bao d p eua N h i nude cho c l e n g l n h kinh te lam nguy, trong dd
cupc chien tranh kinh te lan rdng va do v l y nguy eo cua mdt cupc chien tranh the gidi cung khd x l y ra, vl t o l n cau h o i da p h I t trien qui manh, Ipi feh eua e l c qud'c gia da dan xen vao nhau rl't chat che, va do v | y chien tranh se khdng ehi g l y tdn that n|ng ne cho mdt phfa, m l cho tl't e l c l e phfa tham chien.
Cac md hinh phat trien lieu cd bi dieu chinh bdi cupc khung hoang kinh te lan nay? Khi khung holng tai ehfnh nd ra d M y , khdng ft ngQdi da phe p h l n md hinh p h I t then eua My la khdng the chap nhan. NhQng khdng l l u sau dd, khung holng kinh te d l lan sang chau Au, Ddng A, v l e l Trung Qudc cung se khdng the t r i n h khoi. V | y ed md hinh p h I t trien nao ed the xem la k h i dT ben vdng? DQdng nhQ cung dang ed mpt cupc khung h o l n g ve md hinh phIt trien. N h i nQdc dieu tiet ft qua nhQ md hinh cua M y d l khong dn, nhQng N h i nQdc dieu tiet nhieu q u i nhQ d Ddng A se cang khdng dn hfln, dau tQ cho phue Ipi xa hdi Idn nhQ md hinh d chau Au cung ba't cap. Mdt md hinh phIt trien hpp ly, phu hflp trong dieu kien mdi hien van I I mpt eau hdi chQa cd c l u t r i Idi th6a ding.
Ciai phap ciia cac Chinh phu lieu da cd tac dung? Cho den nay, CO the thi'y d c Chfnh phu da ao at dQa ra e l e g i l i p h l p chu yeu la ve tien te v l t l i chfnh de ddi phd vdi khijng holng. C l e n g I n b l n g trung Qflng d l bflm b l n g nghin ty USD cho e l c n g I n b l n g thQflng mai; Chfnh phu cung da bd b l n g nghin ty USD cho c l e dQ an kfch
eau; nhieu ngan h I n g thQflng mai da dQpe e l e Chfnh phu cQu trfl;
chQflng trinh g i l m thud, ha lai suit, trfl cap that nghiep da dQflc I p dung rdng rai... Tuy nhien, p h l i thQa nhan la t i e ddng thQc te eua e l e g i l i p h l p n l y hien chQa thQc sQ rd ret mac du dd I I nhQng g i l i p h l p chQa tQng cd trong Iich sQ. Xem xet nhOng gdi g i l i p h l p eija c l e Chfnh phij ed the thi'y:
Thd nha't, quy md Idn chQa tQng ed: lai suit da g i l m xud'ng thi'p nha't trong hang ehue nam gan day, khdi iQpng tien do Chfnh phu tung ra v l e l c ngan h I n g trung Qflng dd v I o ngan hIng thQflng mai cung Idn chQa tQng cd...
Thd hai, hau nhQ tl't c l e l e qude gia d l ddng loat dQa ra e l e g i l i p h l p Qng phd, d l y cung I I dieu chQa tQng ed.
Thd ba, dinh hQdng cQu trp cung rd r i n g : cQu e l c ngan b l n g thQflng mai, e l c quy dau tQ chij chd't, nhQng tap d o l n cdng nghiep khdng the thieu.
Thd tu, tap trung v I o cfl sd ha tang, ddi mdi cdng nghe hQdng tdi
cdng nghe cao, cdng nghe sach, tang dau tQ cho g i l o due, y te.
Thd nSm, ta't c l d c Chfnh phu deu tuyen bd ung hd tQ do hda thQflng mai, phe p h l n ehu nghTa b l o hd, tdn trpng d c nguyen tac cua thi trQdng.
SQ k h l e biet giOa e l e Chfnh phu I I d mQc dp nhanh - c h | m , n l n g - nhe nhQng ve cfl b i n I I gidng nhau. Tuy nhien nhQng g i l i p h l p ve ddi mdi the che va ket cl'u hien cdn rl't md nhat, mac du mdt sd Chfnh phu da ndi tdi ddi mdi the che t l i ehfnh, p h I t trien manh e l e n g l n h cdng nghe eao, kien t o l n v l ddi mdi e l e td chQc kinh te qud'c te.
3. Vai trd cua cac nQdc Idn Cupc khung holng kinh te the gidi lan n l y nd ra dau tien tai My, sau dd da lan sang c h i u Au, Nhat B i n , va dang t i e ddng de'n e l Trung Qude, An Dp,... ed nghTa la tl't c l d c nQdc Idn deu d l l l m nan vdi nhQng mQc dp khle nhau.
NhQng dQ b l o cho den nay deu cho rang, nam 2009 N h | t B i n se suy t h o l i vdi mQc nang nha't
DIEN DAN TRAO DOI
^khoing tren 6%, chau Au tren 4%, My tren 2%, Trung Qudc va An Dp v l n tang tnJdng dQflng khoing 5-6%. ThQc te, ba taing tam kinh te hIng dau the gidi la My, Nhat Bin, chau Au ehfnh la thu pham gay ra eudc khung holng kinh te the gidi fan nay. Neu eudc khung holng d cle nQdc Idn chQa tdi dly, khung holng kinh te the gidi cung chQa the tdi dly, v l suy tholi kinh te d d e nQdc phu thupc khle cang chQa the tdi dly. Do vly, ai dd nghT rang kinh te Tnjng Qude da qua dly va dang hdi phue, cung I I mdt y nghT chQa thQc te. Tic ddng cija eudc khung holng kinh te tQ d c nQdc trung tam tdi ele nQdc ngoai vi da khdng dien ra ngay tnic tiep, vl he thd'ng tai ehinh - tien te cua ele nQdc ngoai vi chQa md eda thdng tholng.
Tie ddng nly phli qua he thd'ng thQflng mai - gilm xua't nh|p khau d i n den gilm sin xua't v l tie ddng len he thd'ng tai ehfnh - tien te, do vay thQdng ed dp trd, khoing 6 thing den 1 nam*2).
Neu My, Nhat Bin, chau Au chUa tholt ra khdi khung holng kinh te thi elc nQdc khle cung khd ed the tholt ra khdi. Ly do dfln giln la elc nQdc ngoai vi hien dang le thudc nghiem trpng vao d e trung tam kinh te hIng dau nay. Ngay Trung Qud'c I I nQdc ed nen kinh te mdi ndi nang ddng nhl't the gidi, cung dang le thudc n|ng ne vIo d c nQdc trung t i m ve c l xul't nhap khl'u, cdng nghe, vdn, dQ trQ ngoai te... The manh cua Trung Qude la dQ trQ ngoai te Idn nhl't the gidi cung bi le thudc Idn vIo ddng USD. Vl vay, neu ddng USD mat g i l manh thi thiet hai Idn dd'i vdi Trung Qud'c se II khd trinh khdi.
Cle gili phlp tholt khdi khung hoang dQdng nhQ cung do ele nQdc Idn quy dinh - tQ ndi Idng tien te, tai chfnh, tdi elc chfnh sleh kfch eau, phIt trien cdng nghe xanh,... deu bat ngudn tQ My, Nhat Bin, ehlu Au. Tuy ed sQ khle nhau ve chi tiet nhQng nhQng dinh hQdng chfnh gan nhQ la gidng nhau.D
<2) Cupc khung hoang kinh te chau A xay ra nam 1997 thi t a n a m 1998 Viet Nam mdi bi tac dpng.
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KINH TE THE GI6I NLfA DAU NAM 2009:NHIEU TIN H I E U LAC QUAN NHUNG CUNG C H U A HET KHO KHAN
TQ giQa ndm 2009, kinti te ttie gidi c d dd'u hieu hdi phuc, GDP c u a h a u he't c d c g u d c gia tQ c h d gidm khd mgnh trong q u y I d d d d d c cai thl^n d d n g ke trong q u y II, san xud't c d n g nghiep v d b d n le tgi nhieu qud'c gia d d t d n g trudng trd Igi, gid h a u het c d c m g t hdng d e u t d n g khd mgnh so vdl d d u ndm,
Trong b d o c d o Trien vpng Kinh te The gidl c d n g b d thdng 7/2009, Quy Tien t§ Qud'c te (IMF) dU b d o kinh te the gidl ndm 2009 chi gidm 1,4% (trUdc d d c u n g chinh IMF d y b d o Id gidm 2,5-2,9%), Nhieu c h u y e n gia nhdn djnh, he thd'ng tdi chinh the gidi d d b u d c q u a giai d o g n to! te nhd't vd dang c d nhCfng c h u y e n bien tich c d c , Nguy c d Igm phdt trong ndm 2009 v d 2010 c u n g khdng d d n g lo nggi mdc du c d c chinh phu d e u sd d y n g bi^n p h d p kich c d u Idm t d n g thdm hut ngdn sdch v d c d c ngdn hdng trung Udng d d bdm mot lUdng tien Idn v d o nen kinh te.
Kinh te c h d u A u m g c d u c d n nhieu khd khdn nhang c u n g d d b d t d a u c d nhQng tfn hi^u tfch cUc. Tgi DQc, tinh trgng that nghiep d d c d dd'u hieu chQng Igi, xud't khd'u vd sdn xud't c d n g nghiep d a n g t d n g trd Igi. Trong khi d d , bd't c h d p khung h o d n g , Trung Qud'c v d n d g t mQc t d n g trudng GDP trong q u y II Id 7,9%, c a o hdn mQc 6,1% c u a q u y I. Gdi kfch thfch kinh te khdng Id c u a q u d c gio n d y d d phdt huy t d c d u n g nhOng c u n g g d y ra nhieu lo nggi ve nguy c d xudt hien bong b d n g tdi chinh.
Kinh te My - nen kinh te Idn nhd't the gidl v d c u n g Id ndl khdi nguon c u a c u p c khung hoang Idn n d y - d d xud't hien mgt so tin hieu khdi sdc. Neu nhU trong q u y I, GDP c u a qud'c gia n d y suy gidm tdi 6,4% thi d e n q u y II chf c d n d m 1%
so vdi q u y I v d d m 3,9% so vdi c u n g ky ndm ngodi (khd quan hdn so vdi c o n so' d m 5,5% hoi q u y I), Thu nhgp khd d u n g cOng nhd Idng tin c u a ngddi d d n d a n g t d n g d d n , ket q u d kinh doanh c u a c d c d o a n h nghiep trong q u y 11 cung he't sQc kha q u a n , d g c bi^t Id khdi tdi chfnh - ngdn hdng.
Hogt d p n g d a u t d kinh d o a n h v d xud't khdu chi suy gidm Idn lUdt Id 8,9% vd 7% trong q u y II, thay vi d m 39,2% v d d m 29,9%
trong g u y I, Gidi c h u y e n mdn nhgn dinh rdng, d d di xud'ng c h d m d d n trong Unh vUc xud't khdu v d d d u tU Id bdng chdng cho thd'y suy thodi d d g d n c h d m dQt sou 19 thdng hodnh hdnh. Tuy nhien, hogt d d n g chi tieu tieu d u n g tgi My trong 3 t h d n g vQa q u a khd d m d g m v d d d gidm tdi 1,2% sou khi nhich nhe 0,6% v d o q u y trUdc; b e n c g n h d d , vd'n d e viec Idm cOng vdn rd't d d n g q u a n nggi,
Nhu v g y , c d the thd'y, tinh hinh kinh te the gidl vdn c h J a thi^c sQ ra khoi khd khdn. ThUdng mgi the gidi v d n syt gidm m g n h , c d c qud'c gia d o n g hudng de'n tieu d u n g trong nddc b d n g c d c chinh sdch kich c d u ndi dia v d d d n g len c d c hdng rdo thUdng mgi vd dieu n d y se d e d o o d e n sQ phuc hdi c u o kinh te t o d n c d u , D
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