Cac yeu to anh hiTdng tdfi kha nang tiep can tin dung
chmh thu'c cua cac ho nong dan tai Agribank Chi nhanh Bac Kan
MA THI HC/CiMG' Torn tat
Thdng qua ki't qud khdo sdt 385 hg ndng dan, bdng phUOng phdp thd'ng ki md td ki't hgp vdi phuang phdp phdn lich hdi quy Binary Logistic nghien cdu chi ra cdc yeu to chinh dnh hUdng den khd ndng tiep can tin dung chinh thdc ddi vdi hd ndng ddn tgi Ngdn hdng Ndng nghiip vd Phdt trien ndng thdn tinh Bdc Kan (Agribank Chi nhdnh Bdc Kan), gom: Gidi tinh cda chu hg;
Ddn tdc; Tudi ciia chu ho; Trinh dd hgc vd'n cua chu ho; Thu nhdp binh qudn thdng ciia hg;
Tdi sdn thi'chdp cua hg devay ngdn hdng; Sd'lugng thdnh vien trong hg; Dien tich ddt; vd Hd cd tham gia vdo tdchdc xd hdi.
Tii khoa: tin dung chinh thdc, ndng hg, ngdn hdng Agribank, Bac Kan Summary
Through a survey of 385 farmer households, using descriptive statistical method combined with Binary Logistic regression, the study points out the main faciors affecting farmer households' ability to access official credit at Vietnam Bank for Agiculture and Rural Development, Bac Kan Branch, which are Gender of household head; Ethnicity; Age of household head; Education level of the household head; Average monthly income of household; Mortgage assets; Number of members In the household; Land area; and Households participating in social organizations.
Keywords: official credit, farmer households, Agribank, Bac Kan
Giai THIEU
Bdc Kan la mdt tinh mien nui, kinh te'khd khan, vdi tren 80% ddn sd' lam ndng nghiep. Nhffng nam qua, tinh Bac Kan ludn quan tam chu trgng phdt trien ndng nghiap ndng thdn, nhtf: hd trd vay vd'n, ho trd gid'ng cdy, hd trd vat nudi... Trong dd, Agribank Chi nhanh Bac Kan vdi vai tro la to chtfc tin dting cua ndng ddn tren dta ban da hd trd tren 85% dtf nd cho vay cua Chi nhanh la cho vay trong ITnh vtfe ndng nghiep ndng thdn. Tuy nhien, tin dung dd'i vdi hd ndng ddn tr6n dia bdn cdn rd't han che, chi dap u'ng dtfdc dtfdi 30% nhu cau vay vd'n cua ho ndng nghidp.
Do vay, nghien ctfu "Cac yeu to" anh htfdng tdi kha ndng tid'p can tin dung chinh thtfc cua cac hd ndng ddn tai Agribank Chi nhanh Bac Kan" cd y nghia thtfc tiln sdu sac. Ttf do, d l xud't giai phap tang ctfdng boat ddng tin dung chinh thtfc cho cdc hg ndng ddn tren dia ban trong thdi gian tdi.
CO sd LY THUYET VA PHL/ONC PHAP NGHIEN CLTU
Casdly thuyet
Tin dung ndng nghiep ndng thdn cd vai trd quan trong trong phat trien khu vtfe ndng thdn, ddy chinh la dgng Itfc htfdng dd'n stf ben vffng cho ndng ddn ndi chung va cho ngtfdi ngheo ndi ridng.
Hien nay, da cd nhieu cdng trinh nghien ctfu ve tin dung cua hg ndng ddn va ho ngheo. Cu the, dien hinh nhtf:
^ Vu (2001), trong nghien ctfu ve nguon vdn tin^ dung chlnh thtfc d nong thdn Dong bang sdng Hong da chi ra cdc y6'u td' anh htfdng tdi nguon tin dimg chinh Ihtfc, gdm: dien tich dd't, trinh do hgc vd'n cua chu hd, gia tri san Itfdng, so'Iao ddng va so ngtfdi phu thudc, dd ludi, gidi tinh.
'TS., Trtfdng Dai hoc Kinh te va Quan tri kinh doanh - Dai hoc Thai Mguyen Email: [email protected]
Ngdy nhdn hdi. 05/03/2019. Ngdy phdn hiin: 15/03/2019: Ngdv duyet ddng: 20/03/2019
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Kmh ic vj Dl/ bdogid'y chtfng nhdn quyen su" dung dd't va hd cd kha nang vay dtfdc vd'n.
Le Thi Thanh Tam (2008) cho rang, hg nong ddn va cdc hp kinh doanh ca the khd tiS'p can vdi cac khoan vd'n vay trung ban vd dai han tren 10 trieu dong, do thieu ke hoach dau ttf kha thi va chtfa cd he thd'ng canh bao rui ro sdm dd'i vdi khach hang khu vtfe ndng nghi6p, ndng thdn.
Nghidn ctfu cua Trdn Ai Ke't va Huynh Trung Thdi (2013) dd sif dung md hinh hoi quy Logit va OLS de phdn tich cdc yeu to' anh htfdng de'n tiep can tin dung chinh thtfc cua ndng hg tren dia ban tinh An Giang. Ke't qua nghien ctfu chi ra cac yeu to': trinh dd hpc vd'n, nghe nghiep cua hd, di6n tich da't thd etf, gid tri tai san cua hd va siJ dung tin dung thtfdng mai, quan he xa hdi ciia chu hg, muc dich vay vdn, gia tri tdi san va thu nhdp cua hd la nhffng ye'u to anh htfdng den tiep can tin dung chinh thtfc cua nong hd tren dia ban tinh An Giang.
Nghien ctfu cua Dinh Phi Ho (2015) da suf dung dtf lieu bang dtfdc rut ttf bd dff lieu khao sat ngudn Itfc hp gia dinh Viet Nam ttt ndm 2006 de'n 2012, tren cd sd cua phtfdng phap sai biet kep ket hdp vdi mo hinh hdi quy POOL-OLS va xdc dinh dtfdc tin dung chinh thtfc tdc dgng den thu nhdp cua ndng hd. Qua dd, tac gia da de xuat giai phdp nham giup ehtfdng trinh tin dung chinh thtfc phdt huy vai trd va hieu qua hdn ntfa len thu nhdp cua ndng hg d Vidt Nam.
Phuongphap nghien cdu So' lieu thtf ca'p nghien ctfu dtfdc thu thdp ttt Nien gidm Thdng ke tinh Bac Kan, bdo cdo tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bdc Kan trong 3 nam (2015-2017), ke't hdp vdi phtfdng phdp dieu tra sd cd'p bdng phtfdng phdp dieu tra chgn mdu.
Quy md mdu dtfdc xdc dinh theo cdng thtfc Slovin, trong td'ng so' 10,310 hd ndng ddn tren dia ban Tinh cd nhu cau vay vd'n cimg vdi mtfc sai so' cho phep 5%, cd mdu xac dinh Id 385 quan sat, ttfdng dtfdng 385 hd ddn.
Ham Binary Logistic dtfdc sii dung de do Itfdng anh htfdng cu the cua cdc yd'u to' tdi khd ndng de'p can tin dung chinh thtfc cua cdc hd ndng ddn tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bdc Kan. Trong dd, Y Id bie'n gia, cd gia tn bang 1 (neu cdc hd tie'p can dtfdc tin dung chinh thtfc tai Agribank Chi nhanh Bac Kan) vd bang 0 (nd'u cdc hd chtfa tid'p can dtfdc vdi tin dimg chinh thtfc tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bac Kan);
BAMG 1: P H A M LOAI D d B A O (CLASSIFlCATIOM TABLE^)
O b s e r v e d
Step 1
Y 0
1 Overall Percentage
Predicted Y .0
123 48 1.0
68 146
Percentage Correct
64,4 75,3 69,9 a. The cut value IS 500
r i g u o n . Tinh loan ciJa tac gia
X la cdc ye'u to' dnh htfdng dd'n tdi khd nang de'p cdn tin dung chinh thtfc cua cac hg nong dan tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bac Kan (j=l-n); u Id phan dtf.
LnOdds = Po + P,X, + |i,Xj+ p^X, + p,X^+... + P„X^+ U Trong do:
Bie'n phu thuoc Y: la Kha ndng tie'p can tin dung chinh thtfc cua cac hp nong dan tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bdc Kan. Y nhdn gid tri 1 ne'u hg dd tie'p cdn va giam tri 0 neu chtfa tiep can.
Bie'n ddc lap: (i) Gidi tinh cua chu hp (X,) - Bien gia, nhan gia tri bang 1 ne'u chu hg Id nam va nhdn gia tri la 0 nen chu hd la nff; (ii) Dan tgc (X^) - Bie'n gia, nhdn gid tri Id 1 ne'u chu hd la ngtfdi ddn tdc Kinh va nhdn gid tri 0 la ngtfdi ddn tgc thieu so'; (iii) Tu6i chu hd (X3) dtfdc tinh bang sd' nam tud'i ciia chii hd; (iv) Trinh do hoc vd'n ciia chii hd (X^) dtfdc do bang so' nam di hgc ciia chii hd (nam); (v) Thu nhap binh qudn thang ciia hg (X^): So'tien thu nhdp binh quan thang ciia hg (tridu dong); (vi) Tai sdn the ehd'p (X^): T6ng gia tri tai san ciia hg cd the the cha'p dap tfng yeu cau vay vd'n (trieu dong); (vii) Sd'Itfdng thdnh vidn ciia hg (X,,):
Tong so'nhdn kh£u ciia ho (ngtfdi); (viii) Dien tich dd't (X^): Tdng dien tich dd't san xud't cua hd (l,000m^); (ix) Tham gia vdo td chtfc xa hgi (X^) - Bien gid, nhdn gia tri la 0, ne'u hp chtfa tham gia va gia tri la 1 neu hg da tham gia (Bdi vie't sd dung cdch viet so thdp phdn theo chudn qudc ti).
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
Mdc dg dubdo chinh xdc cua md hinh Ke't qua Bang 1 cho thd'y, md hinh dtf bdo trong 191 trtfdng hdp dtfdc dtf dodn Id hd ndng dan chtfa tid'p cdn dtfdc nguon tin dung chinh thtfc ttf ngdn hdng Agribank Chi nhdnh Bac Kan, md hinh dtf doan dung 123 trtfdng hdp, vdy ty le dung Id 64.4%. Cdn vdi 194 trtfdng hdp du" doan la hg da tie'p can dtfdc vdi nguon tin dung chinh thtfc ttf Agribank Chi nhdnh Bdc Kan mo hinh lai dtf doan sai 49 trtfdng hdp, ty id dung la 75.3%. Ttf dd, ta tinh dtfdc ty le dtf dodn dung ciia loan md hinh la 69.9%,
Ki't qud kiem dinh hi so'hoi quy
Ke't qud kiem dinh Wald (Bang 2) ve y nghia cua he so'hoi quy tdng the ciia bien X^, X^, X3, X_,, X-, X^^, X,, X^, Xy deu cd mtfc y nghTa Sig. nho hdn 0.05, nen ta an loan bdc bo gia thuyel H,^, cdc he sdhdi quy tim
Economy and Forcea.si Review
47
BANG 2: CAC BIEN TROMG MO HINH (VARIABLES IN THE EQUATION) KET LU.^ VA KIEN NGHj GIAI PHAP Ket qua nghifin ctfu cho thd'y, cd 9 yeu td' tdc dgng de'n kha nang tie'p can tin dung chinh thtfc dd'i vdi hd ndng ddn tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bac Kan, gom: Gidi tinh cua chu hd; Ddn tdc; Tudi ciia chu hp; Trinh do hgc vd'n cua chii hg; Thu nhdp binh quan thdng cua hd; Tai san the' cha'p cua hg de vay ngdn hang; Sd Itfdng thanh vien trong^
hd; Di6n dch da't; va Hp cd tham gia vao td chtfc xa hdi. Trong do, ye'u to'Gidi tinh cua chii hd cd tdc dgng ldn nhat.
Ttf kd't qua nghien ctfu, de tang ctfdng kha nang tiep can vdn tin dung ciia cdc hg ndng dan tai Agribank Chi nhdnh Bac Kan, thdi gian tdi can thtfc hien mpt sd giai phap sau:
Thd nhd't, tang ctfdng tuydn truyen, phd bien cd che chinh sach, phdp luat c^a Dang va Nha ntfde ve cdc chinh sdch hd trd tin dung cho cdc hp ndng ddn.
Thd hai, ndng cao trinh dp hpc vd'n cho ndng ddn, qua do ndng cao nhan thu'c ve quyen va nghTa vu ciia minh ddi vdi tin dung phdt trien ndng nghiep ndng thdn tren dja ban.
Thti ba, khuye'n khich cac hp ndng ddn tham gia vao cdc td chffc xa hgi, thdng qua cdc td chtfc xa hpi de tuy6n truyen, ttf vd'n, hd trd cac hd nong dan tie'p can vdi tin dung chinh thtfc.
T/iH"?;/, caned chinh sach giam bdt cdc thii tuc hanh chinh ddi vdi cac khoan vay ciia hd ndng ddn, tao sif thdn thien giffa ngan hang vd ngtfdi ndng ddn. Qua dd, giup cac hp ndng ddn cd dii tiem Itfc tai chinh de phat trien sdn xud't, kinh doanh, thodt ngheo va phdt tridn ben vffng.Q Step
X,
\
X,
^ 4
XJ XJ
K
\
\
Constant B 0 403 1.165 0.028 0.149 0.210 0,024 0.108 0,201 0.167 -.•i.OTO
S . E . 0 , 2 5 0 0 . 3 1 9 0 , 2 3 7 0 , 0 5 2 0 . 0 9 1 0 , 0 1 9 0.007 0 . 0 0 1 0 , 2 2 1 1.221 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1 • X^,
W a l d
2 . 5 9 4 13 3 3 2
0 . 0 1 3 8.177 5 3 2 4 1.617 1 2 6 8 0 6 6 5 0 . 5 6 8 17.254
df 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
!
1 1
Sig.
0.007 0.000 0.048 0.004 0.021 0,023 0.040 0,015 0.045 0.000 X^, X^, X J , X , , X3, X J , X , , X^
Exp(B) t.497 3 206 0,973 1.161 1233 1,024 1.008 1 001 1.181 0.006
dtfdc cd y nghTa va md hinh ciia chung ta su" dung tdt.
Ttf cdc he sd' hdi quy nay ta viet dtfdc phtfdng trinh:
LnOdds = -5.070 + 0.403*X^ + 0.028*X^ + 0.024*X^
+ 0.149*X^ + 0.108'-'-X^ -I- 0 . 2 0 i % -1- 0.2W-^X^ + 0.167*X^+ I.165*X^ ^
K^'t qua md hinh hdi quy cho thd'y: Cdc bid'n XI de'n X9 deu cd y nghia thd'ng kd vdi Sig.<0.05; cdc bien nay de cd he sd' hdi quy dtfdng vd cimg chieu vdi bie'n phu thudc.
Tdm lai: Ke't qua hdi quy cho thd'y, cdc bie'n: Gidi tinh cua chii hd (X ); Dan tgc (X^); Tudi chii hd (X^);
Trinh do hgc vd'n cua chij hp (X^); Thu nhdp binh qudn thang ciia hd (X^); Tai san the ehd'p (X^); So Itfdng thanh vien ciia hd (X,); Dien tich dd't (Xg); Tham gia vao td chtfc xa hpi; (X^) deu dnh htfdng de'n kha nang tid'p can tin dung cua cdc hp ndng ddn tai Agribank Chi nhanh Bac Kan.
_ TAJXIEU THAM KHAO _ -
1. Chinh phii (2015). Nghi dinh sd55/2015/ND-CP, ngciy 09/06/2015 ve chinh sdch tin dung phuc vu phdt tnen ndng nghiep, ndng thdn
2. Chinh phu (2018). Nghi dinh so 116/2018/ND-CP, ngdy 07/09/2018 sda ddi, bd sung mgt sd dieu cda Nghi dinh sd55/2015/ND-CP, ngdy 09/06/2015 ve chinh sdch tin dung phuc vu phdt triin ndng nghiep, ndng thon
3. Cue Thd'ng ke tinh Bac Kan (2015-2017). Nien gidm Thd'ng ki tinh Bac Kgn td nam. 2014 di'n 2016, Nxb Thd'ng ke
4. Dinh Phi Ho (2015), Tdc ddng tin dung chinh thtfc den thu nhap cua ndng hg d Viet Nam, Tgp chi Phdt trien kinh ti', sd 26(2), 65-82
5. Tran Ai Ke't va Huynh Trung Thdi (2013). Cdc nhan tdanh htfdng den tie'p can tin dung chinh thtfc cua ndng hd tren dja ban tinh An Giang, Tgp^chiKhoa hgc Trudng Dgi hgc Cdn Tha, sd27(2013), 17-24 6. Le Thi Thanh Tdm (2008). Phdt trien cdc to chdc tdi chinh nong thdn ViitNam, Ludn an tid'n sT, Trtfdng Dai hgc Kinh te Qud'c ddn
' 7, Vu (2001). Diterminants Rural Households' Borrowing from Formal Financial Sector: A Study of the Rural Credit Market in Red River Delta Region, Master Thesis, Vietnam - Nethedands Project, Hanoi
