The gioi: Van de - Su kien T a p chf C d n g s d n
KINH TE THE GIOI
061 MAT VOI NHUNG THACH THUC MOI
TRAN NGUYEN TUYEN*
Theo du bdo cua Quy Tiin ti quoc ti (IMF), Ngdn hdng The gi&i (WB), To chirc Hgp tdc phdt triin kinh ti (OECD),... kinh ti thi gi&i tuy Mng cd xu hu&ng phuc hoi, nhung stf phuc hoi M khong Mng Mu, toe dp phuc
hoi chdm lgi vd tiim an nhiiu nguy ca m&i. Diiu Mng ndi Id, cdc trung tdm
r f F r r •>
kinh ti l&n nhdt trin thi gi&i Mng phdi doi mat v&i nhirng bdt on khong chi trong Unh vuc kinh ti md con Mng phdi chung kiin nhirng bdt on, xung dpt trong xd hpi.
No cdng - diem nong cua cac nen kinh te Ion
My - cygng qudc kinh te sd 1 the gidi dang dftng tmdc vin dk ng cdng nghiem frgng.
Tinh din ngay 16-5-2011, tong ng edng eua My da cham mftc toi da 14.294 ti USD, tiromg duomg gin 100% GDP Dit nude nay da ehftng kiln nhumg cudc franh cai nay Ifta vf tham hut ngan sach vd ehi tif u cdng gifta Dang Cdng hda vd Dang Dan chu, tmdc khi Quoc hdi thdng qua quylt djnh nang mftc ng tiin len tifn eon sd 14.300 ti USD, franh eho diu tau kinh tl thi gidi roi vao nguy ea va ng.
Tuy nhif n, vdi mftc tham hyt ngan sdch tang nhanh, nin kinh tl My phye hdi tang tmdng frong sy khd khan tram frgng ve tai ehinh va ngudn nhdn lyc frong thai gian tdi. Trong khi dd, cdc khoan chi cho cdc cudc chien tranh ma My tham dy vln khdng ngvmg tang If n.
Chi frong vdng mdt thang diu, cudc chien d Li-bi da ngdn cua M^ khoang 600 trifu USD, vd, mdc du da cit gidm, nhvmg chi phi dy
kien eho hai chien tmdng d I-rde vd Ap-ga- ni-xtan cung len tdi 126 ti-USD. Tdng thdng My Ba-rie 6-ba-ma ndi, vifc thdng qua dy ludt ndng fran ng cdng "ehi la budc di ddu tien" tren eon dudng dai efta tien trinh phye hdi kinh te My.
Ngay 5-8-2011, hang xep hang tin nhifm tin dung thi gidi Standard & Poor's (S&P) lin ddu tien frong lich sft da ha thip diim tin nhifm ng cdng efta My tft mftc tdt nhit la AAA xudng AA+, vdi ly do giai phdp gidi quylt vin dk ng edng eua My bi tae ddng bdi eae nii ro ehinh tri. Ddng thai tien cua S&P da khiin cac cudng qude kinh tl tien thi gidi phai nhanh ehdng tim each tiin an gidi diu tu, tianh eho thi tiirdng ehftng khoan rai vao tinh trang hdn loan. Nhiiu chuyen gia kinh te lo ngai vl kha nang mdt vdng xoay di xudng cua thi tmdng. Dy bdo nam 2011, kinh te My
* PGS, TSKH, Vu tnidng Vu Tay Bac Au - B5c My, Ban Ddi ngo^ii Trung ucmg
The gioi: Van de - Svr kien T a p chf Cdng s d n se chi tang tmdng d mftc 2,4% (giam so vdi
mftc dy bao 2,7% tmdc do).
Tai Lien minh ehduAu (EU),na cdng dang ngay cang frd nen frim frgng ban, khd kilm soat hom. Ng cdng cua Hy Lap len den gan 144% GDP; Tay Ban Nha: 53,2%; I-ta-li-a:
128%; Bd Dao Nha: 87,9%; Dftc: 73,2%;
Bi: 98,1%; Ha Lan: 60,9%; Anh: 68,1%;
Phap: 77,6%... Tham hyt ngan sach cua Hy Lap xip xi 13,6%; Tay Ban Nha: 11,2%;
I-ta-li-a: 5,3%; Bd Dao Nha: 9,4%; Dftc:
6,3%; Bi: 6%; Ha Lan: 5,3%; Anh: 11,5%;
Phap: 7,5%. GDP.. Mftc do tin nhiem tin dyng efta nhieu nudc bi syt giam manh. Hien nay, mdi lo ngai dang ddn ve I-ta-li-a va Tay Ban Nha hai nin kinh tl ldm thft ba va thft tu frong Khu vyc ddng a-rd cd the red vao vdng xoay khiing hoang ng cdng d chau Au.
Nam 2010, dl eftu 3 nudc thanh vien cd mftc ng cdng nang nhat la Hy Lap, Bd Dao Nha va Ai-len thoat khdi vifc tuyen bd vo ng, ngdn chan khftng hoang lan rgng sang cac nudc khac, EU va IMF da phdi phdi hgp dl dua ra gdi eftu frg ban diu la 110 ti o-rd cho Hy Lap; 80 ti o-rd cho Bd Dao Nha va 70 ti o-rd cho Ai-len. Ddi lai, cdc nudc nhdn gdi eftu tig phai thye hifn ehinh sach "thit Ivmg budc byng", tang thul, giam chi tieu phftc lgi xa hdi, nhanh chdng giam tham hyt ngan sdch va ng cdng. Quy On dinh tai chinh chau Au (EFSF) tii gia 440 ti o-rd va Quy Co chi dn dinh chau Au (ESM) tii gia 750 ti o-rd ra ddi each day 18 thang sau khi khung hodng ng cdng bvmg phdt d Hy Lap, din nay da gin nhu can kift sau khi thuc hifn gdi cuu frg thft hai danh cho Hy Lap.
Cugc khung hoang ng cdng d chau Au tilp tyc la thach thftc, gay can frd, lam cham lai qua trinh phye hdi cua kinh tl thi gidi. IMF cho rang, nhiing hilm hga tilm in d cac nin kinh tl thugc Khu vyc ddng o-rd da frd nen nguy hiem hon, cac khoan ng xau d mgt sd
qude gia thudc khu vyc nay dang de dga sy dn dinh cua hf thdng ngan hang chau Au va thi gidi. Thdm chi, nguy co khiing hoang ng cd thi lan rgng thanh mgt cugc khung hoang tai chinh thi gidi mdi do sy vd ng cua thi tmdng tai chinh chau Au vdi cac hgp ddng hoan ddi riii ro tin dyng.
Tinh frang ng cdng cua chau Au ngay cang nghiem frgng nhu vay cd ngudn gde tft ca nhiing nguyen nhan khach quan va ehu quan. Tmdc hit, cd thi khang dinh, tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang tai chinh kinh tf toan ciu da lam trim frgng them nhirng can bfnh vdn cd cua kinh te cac nudc EU, budc cac nudc nay dl tang tmdng kinh tl, giai quyet that nghifp phai tang manh chi tieu cua chinh phft, nhu chi cho phftc lgi xa hdi, frg cap that nghifp, frg giup cho hf thdng tai chinh ngan hang yiu kem..., ddn din tinh trang tham hyt ngan sach gia tang. Nguyfn nhan chu quan bat ngudn tft nhirng quy dinh chung chua phu hgp vdi trinh do phat tiiln khac nhau efta cac thanh vien frong Khdi khi xac dinh cac thanh vien phai giam tham hyt ngan sach xudng cdn 3% GDP va gidm ng cdng xudng mftc 60% GDP. Trong dieu kifn sfte c^nh franh cua cac thanh vien frong Khdi chua dugc cai thifn, chinh sach tifn tf chung khdng di cvmg vdi chinh sach tai khda, nhit la l^i thiiu CO chi giam sat, kilm tra ddi vdi tvmg qudc gia cung nhu nhiing ho^t dgng tai chinh kinh tl chung efta ca Khdi ddn din tinh frang thiiu ky luat vl chi tieu, frdn thul va sd lifu thong ke khdng du do tin cay. Mdt khac, nhirng quy dinh cua Ngan hang Tnmg uomg ehdu Au (ECB) chua mang tinh rang budc frach nhifm khi duy tri mftc lai suit thap, ngudn tin dyng re dan din tinh frang huy dgng vdn nhieu, khdng tuong xftng vdi vifc kilm sodt chit lugng hifu qua sft dyng vdn.
108 Sd 827 (thang 9 nam 2011)
The gidri: Van de - Svr ki?n T a p chf C d n g s d n
Chut}chWB,dngR.Ddi-e-lich(R.Zoellick) cho rang, nhiing khd khan ngdy cang gia tdng cua kinh tl My vd chau Au dang diy thi gidi din "bd vyc nguy hilm mdi"; lanh dao cae nudc ngay cang mit nilm tin vao sy hoi phye cua kinh tl thi gidi. Nhftng lo ng^i dd se dan din vifc ban thao cd philu tai cac thi tmdng; cac chinh phft se tang cudng bao hg nin sdn xuit trong nudc. Day la mdt thach thftc ldn ddi vdi kinh tl todn eiu.
Nhdt Bdn - nin kinh tl ldm thft ba thi gidi dang phai chiu mftc ng cdng cao, tinh frang dinh frf keo dai, thieu hut ngudn nhan lye.
Nhumg khd khan do cdng vdi hau qua ndng nl cua frdn ddng dit, sdng thin vd tham hga hat nhan hdi thang 3-2011 lam cho qua trinh phye hdi kinh tf cua nude nay cang them chat vdt. Tit cd nhftng yiu td dd cdng hudng lai lam eho Nhat Ban khdng dam frach dugc vai frd la lyc diy, kich thieh kinh tf thf gidi tang tmdng. Cdc chi sd cdng bd ngdy 8-6-2011 eua Chinh phu Nhat Ban eho thay, nin kinh tl nudc nay chua cd diu hifu phye hdi. Dy kiln, kinh tl Nhdt Ban chi tang 0,1% frong ndm 2011.
Chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang tuy vln dugc xdc dinh Id ddng luc phuc hdi vd tang tmdng kinh tl frong thdi gian tdi, nhvmg tdc dg tang tmdng dugc dy kiln se giam. Tang tmdng kinh tl d cae nyde dang phat triin dugc dy bdo se d^t mftc 6,3%» nam 2011 vd 6,2% nam 2012, frong dd, Trung Qudc dat tdc dg tang trudng 9,3% frong nam nay va 8,7% frong ndm tdi. An Dg se cd mftc tang tmdng 8,6%;
tdng tmdng cua khu vyc Ddng Nam A se gidm tft gin 8% cua nam 2010 xudng cdn 5,2% frong nam 2011.
Lam phdt tang nhanh if hau hit cdc wxiSQ,
Thf m mgt khd khdn nfta cho tien trinh phye hdi va tang tmdng ciia nin kinh tl the
gidi la lam phat gia tang d hiu hit cdc nude phat triin va dang phdt triin. Lam phat tang eao de dga sy dn dinh kinh tl vT md eua cae nudc. Chi sd gia cdc nhdm hang hda, theo thdng ke efta IMF, tinh din thdng 6-2011, diu tang manh so vdi thang 12-2010 vd so vdi eftng ky nam tmdc. Lam phdt d cdc qude gia phat trien cd diu hifu tang nhanh ban eae qudc gia dang phdt trien. Mftc tang efta chi sd gia tieu dung (CPI) so vdi cung ky ndm tmdc tinh din cuoi thdng 5-2011 tai My la 3,6%, cao nhit kl tii thdng 7-2008, tai Anh la 4,5%, Xin-ga-po la 4,48%, Ca-na-da la 3,7%.
Cdc nha kinh te the gidi len tieng cdnh bdo rang, lam phdt da frd thdnh hiem hga ldn nhat de dga cdc nen kinh tf dang phdt trien vd thi tmdng mdi ndi. Ngdn hang Phat trien chau A (ADB), ngdy 6-4-2011 eho rang, d chau A, kiem soat lam phdt phdi la "vm tien hdng diu" hifn nay, vi hifn ed rit nhiiu diu hifu eho thdy ty If l^un phdt ed thf se tdng manh tiong thdi gian tdi do tdc do "tdng tiirdng ndng" d mdt so nin kinh tl mdi ndi.
Tai Tnmg Qude, mac dii da dp dyng ehinh sach tiln tf thdt ehdt, nhu lien tiep tang lai suit, tang ty If dy trft bit budc, nhung CPI eua nudc nay tinh df n cudi thdng 6-2011 van tang d mftc ky lyc 6,4% so vdi cimg ky nam 2010. Cae nude khae, nhu Nga, An Do, cung cd tdc dg tang CPI eao, lin lugt Id 9,6% va 8,9%) so vdi cung ky nam 2010. Trong bao cao Trien vgng phat trien ehdu A nam 2011 vfta duge cdng bo, ADB dy bao mdt sd nen kinh tl ldn d chau A, nhu Trvmg Qude, An Dg, Thai Lan, Phi-di va A-dec-bai-gian ed thi se d?t mftc tang tmdng 7,8% frong nam nay va 1,1% frong ndm 2012. Tdc do tdng tmdng ndy thip hom so vdi mftc 9% efta nam 2010, frong khi ty If l?m phat dugc dy kiln tang timng binh tdi 5,3%i frong ndm nay so vdi mftc 4,4%) cua nam 2010.
The'giai: Van de - Svr kien T a p chf Cdng s d n Lam phat tang eao do nhiing bat dn trong
ngi bg mdi qudc gia cdng them nhvimg tae dgng tft dien bien efta nen kinh tl thi gidi.
Chang ban, gia ca hang hda nhien lifu va phi nhien lieu tren thi tmdng thi gidi tang cao do ngudn cung bi thu hep. Do tdc do phye hdi khdng ddng diu gifta cac nen kinh te, cac nen kinh te dang phat frien ed tdc do phuc hdi nhanh hom, thi trudmg vdn cd lgi nhuan kha eao da trd thanh diem den rat hap dan eua mgt lugng vdn "ndng" kha ldn d at do vao, gay dp lyc len ty gia va gia ca trong nudc, tao nen tinh frang "bong bdng"
thi trudng bat ddng san va thi trudng ehftng khoan, day gia ehftng khoan len cao, vugt xa gia tri thye. Ddi vdi cae nyde dang phat trien, cac nen kinh te mdi ndi, sfte ep lam phap, nguy co bat dn ddi vdi kinh te vT md va dn dinh tai chinh do cac ludng vdn
"ndng" do vao la rat ldm. Theo IMF, ludng vdn tai chinh tu nhan rdng do vao cac nude dang phat tiien va mdi ndi nam 2010 tang 44,6% so vdi nam 2009.
Ngoai nhiing khd khan tien, bien ddng, bao loan, bat dn tai khu vyc Trtmg Ddng Bde Phi, khung hoang luomg thye, khiing hoang ndng lygng, tinh tiang bien ddi khi hau, nudc biin dang, hoat ddng khung bo...
dang la nhirng trd ngai ddi vdi tiln trinh phye hdi, phat trien eua kinh te the gidi.
Thye te tren eho thay, mac du da qua giai doan tdi tf nhat cua cude khung hoang tai ehinh - kinh tl toan cau bit diu tft cudi nam 2008, nhvmg kinh tl thi gidi vln dang ddi mat vdi rat nhieu thach thftc va bit tiic khd ludng. Nhieu td chfte kinh te qude tl da giam mftc du bao tang tmdng kinh tl todn eiu tft 4,3%) xudng cdn 4,1% (tinh theo sue mua tuomg duomg). Do vay nhieu y kiln cho ring, nam 2011 de lap lai tinh hinh cua nam 2010 la tang tmdng dau nam eao, sau dd cham lai frong giai doan cudi nam.
Bit dn xa hoi co nguy ctf lan rong
Khd khan vl kinh tl, thit nghifp da lam nay sinh va bung phat nhihig bat dn xa hdi tiem tang d nhieu nudc. Theo sd lifu cua IMF, that nghiep fren the gidi dang d mftc ky lyc. Cudc khiing hoang tai chinh - kinh tl toan ciu nam 2008 da lam 30 trifu ngudi mat vifc lam cung vdi 200 trifu ngudi fren toan cau dang tim vifc lam. Khiing hoang viec lam cd nguy ca lam mat ca mgt the hf vi nd tac ddng nang nhat den'thanh nien.
Cugc khung hoang da diy hang trieu ngudi My roi vao canh mat viec lam va eho den nay, ty If that nghifp van d mftc cao ky lyc, frfn 9%. Ngoai tmdng My Hi-la-ri Clin-tom tvmg tuyfn bd, khoan ng qudc gia khdng Id eua My dang frd thanh mdt nguy co de dga an ninh va vai frd lanh dao eua My fren the gidi, vi the, "vifc giam va kiem soat tham hut ngan sach la van de an ninh qudc gia"
Tai mgt loat qudc gia chau Au, gidi fre dang td ra bat binh trudc tinh frang that nghifp gia tang. Tai Tay Ban Nha, vdi ty If 44% sd thanh nien khdng ed vifc lam khien gidi fre lien tyc xudng dudng tft ngay 15-5 din nay ddi Chinh phft nudc nay quan tam den thanh phan het sfte quan frgng nay efta xa hdi. Phong frao phan khdng cua thanh nien (Phong frao "15-M") Tay Ban Nha bit diu lan rdng sang mdt sd qudc gia chau Au khac, dac biet la nhftng nudc khu vyc Dia Trung Hai. Tai Bd Ddo Nha, ty If thit nghifp frong thanh nien eao gip hai lin mftc trung binh efta ca nudc. I-ta-li-a va Hy Lap cving d frong tmh frang tuomg ty. Gidi tie I-ta-li-a eiing bat man vdi ty If 28% sd ngudi I-ta-li-a frong do tudi tft 19 din 35 tudi khdng cd vifc lam va ty If that nghifp trung bmh d nudc nay la 8%.
O chau A, theo ket qua cac cugc nghien eftu mdi day, ty If lam phat tang, ddc bift la gia luomg thye tang, khiin hang chye trifu
110 S6 827 (thang 9 nam 2011)
The gioi: Van de - Su- kien T a p chf C d n g s d n
ngudi, vdn dang d ngudmg ngheo kho, roi vdo tinh frang bin eftng; khoang each vl thu nhap ngay cang ldm va ed nguy co ddn tdi edng thdng xa hdi.
IMF ciing tvmg canh bao ring, thi gidi van dang ddi mat vdi cudc khung hoang vifc ldm vd bat binh dang vl thu nhap, va diiu dd ed the gieo nhiing hat giong bit dn dinh pha hoai mgi thanh tiiu cua kinh tl thi tmdng.
Vifc thifu cae co hdi kinh tl d qua nhiiu nudc tren the gidi ed thi din din nhvimg hanh ddng phi sdn xuit, bat dn chinh tii, tham ehi xung dot. Tang tmdng kinh te khdng tao ra nhiiu vifc lam va thdnh qua phat triin khdng duge phan phdi rdng rai va cdng bang, cd nguy CO tao ra cudc khung hodng xa hdi nghiem frgng ban cd khftng hoang kinh te.
Buc tranh kinh te the gioi hien nay noi len dieu gi?
Thic nhdt, cac gdi kich thieh kinh tl ma eae ehinh phu thuc hifn de vyc nen kinh tf khdi tinh trang suy thoai dang giam dan tdc dyng. Sau giai doan phye hdi hau khftng hodng nam 2010, thdi diem ma eae gdi kich thieh kinh te tai nhieu nudc giup eho kinh te the gidi tdng trudng gin 5%), nen kinh te toan eau da tang tmdng cham lai. Trong khi dd, nhiing hf lyy nay sinh tft chinh sach kieh thieh kinh tl, nhy ng cdng, thdm hyt ngan sdch, lam phat, toe do tang tmdng cham, chinh sdch tdi chinh thdt chat khdng he nhd vd khdng df dang dyge giai quyet.
Thie hai, sy can thiet phai tai ca cau lai nen kinh tl the gidi, ddi mdi md hinh phat trien kinh te d nhieu nudc, xay dvmg md hinh kinh tl phdt triin xanh, chu y kit hgp gifta tang tmdng kinh te vdi giai quyet cdc van df xa hdi vd bdo vf mdi tmdng. Chinh sach kinh te tdp tnmg giai quyet cac van de cap bdch, nhu giam ng cdng, tham hyt ngdn sdch, giam ty If thit nghifp, chong l^m phdt,...
frong dd chii frgng phdi hgp ehinh sach d tam vT md, khu vyc va toan ciu theo hudng tang cudng qua trinh ty do hda thuang mai vd ddu tu.
Thti ba, cai edch hf thdng tai chinh toan eau, cai td ea chi hoat ddng cua WB, edi td hf thdng tai ehinh ngan hang; tang cudng vai tid dieu tiet eua nha nudc, ddng thdi, ddi mdi phuomg thftc boat ddng efta cae dinh chi tdi ehinh qudc te.
Thic tu, cae nen kinh te ldn eua thi gidi can dieu chinh ehinh sach mdt edeh manh me cung nhu phdi hgp chinh sach ddng bd ban de franh nii ro va sy mat can bang frong tang tmdng kinh te. Cae nen kinh te mdi ndi da gianh duge tifng ndi ldn horn, the hifn duge vai tid quan frgng ban ddi vdi kinh tl the gidi, vi the vi the eua nhdm nude ndy can dugc nang eao hom nfta, tieng ndi efta hg can dugc lang nghe hom nfta.
Bd He-len Cldc (Helen Clark), Phd Tdng Thu ky Lien hgp qude, Quan tri tmdng Chuomg trinh Phdt trien Lien hgp qude (UNDP) vd Chft tieh Nhdm ede ea quan phdt frien eua Lien hgp qude nhdn manh, "eae nf n kinh te the gidi can thiic day 5 nhan td chft ehdt la: phat trien ngudn nhdn lye ben virng; tang cydng tdi tig phat trien; tang cydng khdng gian ehinh sach; edi td khu vye tai ehinh; quan tri tdt nen kinh te toan eau dk bao dam nin kinh te thi gidi phye hdi va tang tmdng ben vftng sau khftng hodng"
Cae ehinh sach tdng tmdng ein dae bift hudng tdi thi tmdng lao ddng, phoi hgp ddng bd vdi giao dye dao tao de lao ddng thdt nghifp de thich nghi vdi nen kinh te dang thay ddi. Duy tri hf thdng an sinh xa hdi cho ngudi ngheo va hd trg chia se binh dang ede thanh qua phdt trien... la nhihig yiu td quan frgng gdp phin vdo sy phat triin ben viing ciia nin kinh te. •
