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AP DUNG MO HINH GIBSI

MO PHONG CHAT LlTONG NlT^C LlTU VlTC SONG CAU

• •

Ha Ngoc Hien, Nguyen Hong Khanh, Nguyin Minh Son, Ta Dang Toan Vien C6ng nghe M6i trudng; 18 - Hoang Qu6c Viet, Cau Giay, Ha Noi

Email: hien_hangoc(a),vahoo.com Tom tat:

Md hinh GIBSI la bd chuong trinh hd tra ra quyet dinh phuc vu qudn ly tdng hap ngudn nude luu vuc sdng. Md hinh do Viin nghien ciru Khoa hpc qudc gia (INRS) Quebec Canada phdt triin vd dutyc dua vdo Viet Nam thdng qua du dn hpp tdc "Qudn ly tdng hpp ngudn nude luu vice sdng Cdu" giiea Viin Khoa hpc vd Cdng nghi Viet Nam vdi INRS. GIBSI bao gdm ca sd die lieu duoc qudn ly bdng GIS vd cdc cdng cu md hinh md phdng cdc qud trinh thuy vdn, xdi mdn ddt, truyin tdi vd tuong tdc giira cdc chdt d nhiim tir hogt ddng cdng, ndng nghiep, ddn sinh vd chdt lupmg nude trong hi thdng sdng. Vi vay GIBSI cd the duac sir dung ldm cdng cu de ddnh gid hiiu qud cua cdc kich bdn phdt triin kinh ti xd hdi (sic dung ddt, qud trinh cdng nghiep hda ...) din ddng chdy vd chdt lutyng nude trong luu vuc sdng.

Bdo cdo trinh bdy cdc kit qud xdy dung cdc md hinh thdnh phdn ciia GIBSI nhu md hinh thuy vdn vd md hinh chdt lupng nude cho phdn thuang du luu vuc sdng Cdu thudc tinh Bdc Kgn vd Thdi Nguyen. Cdc md hinh dd dupe kiim dinh vd tich hpp vdo GIBSI Mdt sd kich bdn ve ngudn thdi vd hogt ddng ndng nghiep dd duoc nghiin ciru di kiim tra khd ndng icng dung ciia GIBSI trong viec hd trp qudn ly tdng hap ngudn nude luu vuc sdng Cdu.

Abstract:

GIBSI model is a Decision Support System (DSS) designed for integrated water resources management. The model was developed by the National Institute of Scientific Research (INRS), Quebec, Canada and is being transferred to Vietnam by an international cooperation project "Integrated management of Cau river basin " between VAST and INRS. GIBSI includes a GIS database and modeling tools that simulate hydrological processes, soil erosion, transportation process of pollutants that originated from industrial, agricultural and domestic activities and water quality in river network. Therefore, GIBSI can be used to assess the effects of scenarios for socio-economic development (land use, industrialization and urbanization processes...) on river hydrological regime and water quality.

The paper presents some results related to construction of GIBSI constituent models such as hydrological and water quality models for upper part of Cau river basin covering Bac Kan and Thai Nguyen. These models have been validated and integrated into GIBSI. Some scenarios on pollution sources and agricultural activity were investigated in order to examine the applicability of GIBSI in supporting the integrated water resource management for Cau river basin.

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Hdi nghi Khoa hgc ky niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010

1. MCKDAU

Quan ly t6ng the ngu6n nude 6 miic do luu vuc da tr6 thanh mgt van de uu tien 6 nhieu qu6c gia tren the gidi, dac biet d cac nude phat trien. Luat nude sach 6 My (U.S. Clean Water Act, 1972) cung nhu Khung chi dan ve nu6c cua Cong d6ng Chau Au (EuropeanWater Framework Directive, 2000) da ap dat nhirng muc tieu cu thi lien quan din sii dung ting thi ngu6n nude. Dieu dd da dan den viec hinh thanh cac t6 chiic quan ly luu vuc song nham dam bao cac nguyen tac quan ly t6ng the. Ve co ban, do la nhihig nguyen tac dua tren su h6a giai giGa cac chii su dung dat va nude vdi muc dich bao ve ben vung ngudn nuoc. Cac nguyen tac ling xu, van hanh ngu6n nude can dugc xac dinh. De qua trinh ra quyet dinh dugc de dang, can phai co cac th6ng tin chat lugng cao va de sii dung. Vi ly do d6, cac nha khoa hgc da tap trung nghien cuu phat trien cac he th6ng h6 trg ra quyet dinh (DSS) phuc vu cho viec quan ly t6ng the ngu6n nude. DSS la cac cdng cu tren may tinh than thien vdi nguoi sii dung, dua tren he th6ng th6ng tin dia ly (GIS) va he th6ng quan ly dir lieu lien th6ng (RDBMS) cho phep hien tbi cac th6ng tin tai mgt diem bat ky trong kh6ng gian va thdi gian, d6ng thoi cung cho phep bien d6i cac dir lieu th6 thanh cac tb6ng tin phii hgp vdi qua trinh ra quyet dinh (ban do, do thi, bang bieu ...). Phan ldn cac DSS dua tren cac md hinh toan va c6 the sii dung de danh gia anh hu6ng cua cac kich ban quan ly lien quan den cac van de ve quy hoach d6 thi, rimg va boat dong n6ng nghiep. Nghien ciha tong quan kha day du ve cac DSS lien quan den quan ly t6ng the ngu6n nude dugc trinh bay trong cac nghien ciiu cua Borah and Bera (2004) va Rousseau et al. (2005). Cac DSS da dugc sir dung nhieu cd the ke den MIKE SHE (Refsgaard and Storm, 1995), Water Ware (Fedra and Jamieson, 1996), BASINS3 (Di Luzio et al., 2003;

Meyers et al., 2001), WARMF (Chen et al., 1996). va GIBSI (Villeneuve et al., 1998). Mac dii phan ldn cac DSS deu dang trong giai doan phat trien va dugc cap nhat thudng xuyen, tuy nhien chiing da du hoan thien de ling dung cho cac bai toan quan ly ngu6n nude.

Bao cao trinb cac ket qua xay dung cac m6 binh thanh phan cua GIBSI nhu m6 hinh thuy van va m6 hinh chat lugng nude cho phan thugng du luu vuc sdng Cau thuoc tinh Bac Kan va Thai Nguyen. Mgt s6 kich ban ve ngu6n thai va boat dgng n6ng nghiep da dugc nghien ciiu de kiem tra kha nang ling dung cua GIBSI trong viec h6 trg quan ly t6ng hgp ngu6n nude luu vuc s6ng Cau.

2. Gl6l THIEU MO HINH GIBSI

GIBSI CO ten vilt tit tir tilng Phap « Gestion Integree des Bassins versants a I'aide d'un Systeme Informatise » la c6ng cu m6 ph6ng cac qua trinh ly- sinb - boa co ban anh hudng den dong chay va chit lugng nude trong luu vuc sdng [Villeneuve et al., 1998]. Day la phan mem tich hgp mgt he thing m6 hinh toan va he tb6ng tin bgc quan ly va hien tbi dir lieu. Ciing nhu phin Ion cac DSS, GIBSI gIm 4 thanh phin chinh: (1) Cac m6 dun quan ly dii lieu; (2) Cac m6 dun quan ly kich ban; (3) Cac m6 dun m6 phong; (4) Cac c6ng cu xir ly ket qua.

2.1 Cac mo dun quan ly dir lieu

Trong GIBSI, cac thuoc tinh dii lieu dugc quan ly bing he quan ly dir lieu MySQL®, cac dli lieu kh6ng gian GIS dugc quan ly bing GRASSLAND. Luu vuc s6ng dugc rdi rac h6a thanh 2 loai phin tu tinh toan: (1) cac doan s6ng, day la phin tu mgt chieu sir dung de m6 ph6ng cac qua trinh tren he thing s6ng (dong chay, lan truyin chat, ...); (2) cac don vi thiiy van hiu ding nhit (RHHU), day la cac phin tir kh6ng gian la cac luu vuc con cau thanh luu vuc nghien ciiu, phin tir nay sir dung dl m6 phong tat ca cac qua trinh xay ra tren be mat luu vuc (qua trinh mua-d6ng chay, xdi mon, van chuyen biin cat va chat 6 nhiem, ...). Cac phan

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2.2 Cac mo dun quan ly kich ban

Vdi muc dich quan ly tdng hgp ngudn nude luu vuc sdng, cac md dun quan ly kich ban trong GIBSI dugc dimg dl tao va siia dli 4 loai kich ban:

(1) Hd chua: them va loai bd hd chiia tren bat ky doan sdng nao, siia doi cac dac trung ciia chiing.

(2) Ndng nghiep: thay ddi cay trdng (lien quan din nhu ciu phan bdn va nude), ky thuat canh tac, thdi gian trdng va thu hoach theo cac cd khdng gian khac nhau (tren timg don vi thuy van (RHHU), theo don vi hanh chinh, hoac tren toan bg luu vuc).

(3) Xir ly nude thdi: thern va b6 cac tram xii ly nude tren bit ky doan sdng nao, thay dli cac dac trung ciia chiing (kilu xir ly, cdng suit...).

(4) Sir dung ddt: thay dli loai Idp phu thuc vat theo cac cd khdng gian khac nhau (do phu rimg, dli trgc, ... lien quan din cac dac trung thuy van nhu do bic hoi, do nham ...)

Mgt khi cac kich ban da dugc tao ra, chiing dugc tich hgp vao co sd dir lieu va khi do cac md phdng cd thi dugc thuc hien. Trong tit ca cac nghien cuu, ludn co 2 kich ban dugc sii dung: (1) kich ban tham chieu, tuong ling vdi hien trang ciia luu vuc, sir dung trong bai toan hieu chinh va kilm dinh md hinh; (2) kich ban quan ly, tich hgp cac thay doi xac dinh bdi ngudi su dung. Ket qua md phdng nhan dugc tir kich ban quan ly ludn dugc so sanh vdi kich ban tham chieu.

2.3 Cac mo dun mo phong

GIBSI md phdng cac qua trinh thuy van, xdi mdn, van chuyin 6 nhiem tren bl mat va trong mang s6ng. Cac m6 dun m6 ph6ng bao gIm cac md hinh: (1) Md hinh Hydrotel, mo hinh thuy van phan b l tuong thich vdi cac du lieu GIS va vien tham (Fortin et al., 2001); (2) M6 hinh x6i m6n RUSLE (Renard et al, 1997; Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), duoc bl sung them phuong trinh Yalin (Yalin, 1963); (3) M6 hinh van chuyin chit 6 nhilm nito, phIt pho va chat bao ve thuc vat tren bl mat SWAT (Arnold et al., 1996); (4) M6 hinh QUAL2E (Brown and Barnwell, 1987) m6 ph6ng cac qua trinh ly-sinh-hoa ciia cac chit 6 nhiem trong mang kenh s6ng. Budc thdi gian cua md hinh la ngay. So lieu diu vao la chudi sd lieu KTTV (lugng mua, nhiet do...).

2.4 Cac cong cu xu" ly ket qua

GIBSI da phat triln cac cdng cu dl phan tich kit qua. Trudc tien, cac dii lieu cd thi dugc hien thi bang bang bilu, dl thi va ban dl. Xlc suit vugt tieu chuin chit lugng cua cac chit 6 nhiem ciing dugc tinh toan va bilu dien bing dl thi. Cuoi cung, viec phan tich mli quan he gia thanh - Igi ich ciing dugc tiln hanh cho cac kich ban ndng nghiep dua tren gia thanh di thuc hien du an va cac Igi ich ting hgp vl m6i trudng va kinh tl.

3. AP DUNG MO HINH GIBSI CHO LUtJ VI/C SONG CAU

Luu vuc nghien ciiu dugc thiit lap cho vimg thugng du luu vuc sdng Clu bao gdm 2 tinh Bac Can va Thai Nguyen. Dien tich luu vuc khoang 4415 km^ dan sd khoang 1,3 trieu ngudi.

Dia hinh luu vuc thap dan theo hudng Tay BIC - Ddng Nam. Mat do sdng suli kha ldn, do rgng long song trung binh vao mua can tir 50 din 100m, do die giam din tir 10% tai Thac Rieng den 0.05% tai Thai Nguyen. Dien tich sir dung dit dugc phan b l nhu sau:

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Bdng 1: Phdn bd diin tich sir dung ddt trong luu vuc Tinh

Thai Nguyen Bac Can

Nong nghiep

29.3%

8.0%

Rung

48.8%

68.4%

Do thi

2.9%

0.5%

Khac (dat trong, nude) 19.0%

23.1%

Luu vuc dugc m6 hinh boa tren GIBSI thanh 1015 luu vuc don vi (RHHU) va 1013 doan s6ng. Mgt s6 ban d6 sii dung trong GIBSI dugc minh hga tren hinh 1, 2.

3.1 Ket qua hieu chinh mo hinh thuy van

M6 hinh thuy van da dugc hieu chinh dua tren cac s6 lieu nam 1997-2001 va kiem dinh cho cac nam 2002-2006. Kit qua hieu chinh va kiem dinh dugc danh gia theo cac chi tieu khac nhau dugc trinh bay trong tai lieu [9]. Vdi chi s6 Nash-Sutcliffe tren 0.77 va sai s6 t6ng lugng khong qua 1%, m6 hinh thiiy van hoan toan c6 the sir dung de m6 ph6ng ddng chay tren luu vuc s6ng vdi do tin cay tit. Chi tilt ve xay dung m6 hinh thuy van Hydrotel cho luu vuc s6ng Cau co the tham khao trong bao cao [9].

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Hinh 1: Bdn dd DEMvd mgng sdng sudi Hinh 2: Bdn do Idp phu thuc vdt 3.2 Ket qua hieu chinh mo hinh chat luong nu-dc

Chit lugng nude tren he thing sdng phu thuoc vao cac nguln thai sau:

- Nguln nude thai sinh hoat: nguon thai nay phu thuoc vao sl lugng dan sl. Tai lugng cua nguln thai nay dugc udc tinh theo cac sl lieu thing ke [10-12] (luu lugng nude thai tren diu ngudi, ning do chit 6 nhiem trong nude thai...). Trong md hinh GIBSI, nguln nude thai sinh boat dugc dua thanh ngudn diem tai cac khu d6ng dan cu (thanh phi, thi xa, thi trin). Ting lugng 6 nhilm trong nude thai dugc udc tinh nhu sau:

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Bang 2: Ifdc tinh tdi lutyng d nhiim trong nude thdi sinh hogt (tdn/ndm) TT

1 2

Tinh Bac Can Thai Nguyen

m /ndm 7.692.409 30.066.856

BOD 5.237 19.912

COD 9.950 37.832

N-tdng 759 3.092

P-tdng 118 610 - Nude thai san xuat cdng nghiep: ngudn thai nay dugc dua vao nhu cac ngu6n diem

bao g6m cac khu c6ng nghiep, cac nha may ldn, cac khu khai khoang. Tai lugng ciia cac ngudn thai nay dugc danh gia theo cac tai lieu dieu tra [10] va udc tinh theo cac tieu chuan thdng ke [13].

Ngudn thai tir hoat dgng n6ng nghiep [11]: day la ngu6n thai phan b6, ngu6n thai nay dugc dua m6 hinh th6ng qua ban d6 tham phu thuc vat va s6 lugng vat nuoi 6 d p huyen. Nhu cau Ni to va ph6t pho cua timg loai cay tr6ng va thdi gian canh tac dugc tinh den trong m6 hinh. Ngu6n thai tir vat nu6i duoc tinh toan dua tren cac so lieu thing ke [13].

S6 lieu quan trac n6ng do dugc thu thap tir 4 dgt khao sat chit lugng nude sdng Clu cua Phdng Quy hoach m6i trudng, Vien Cdng nghe Mdi trudng va tir tai lieu [10].

Kit qua hieu chinh md hinh chit lugng nude dugc chi ra tren hinh 3 va 4 cho 2 nam 2005 va 2006. Cd the nhan thay sir phii hgp kha tit giira so lieu do dac va kit qua tinh toan cua md hinh.

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Hinh 3: Ndng dp BOD; tgi trgm thiiy vdn Gia Bdy: • thirc do • md hinh

j,^^ y j'^ ^-i'" ^.^<^ ..-i*- ,o^° o'-" .-0° *^«^ <.»'

Hinh 4: Ndng dp N-NO'3 tgi trgm thiiy vdn Gig Bdy: • thuc do • md hinh 3.2 Nghien ciru mot so kich ban 6 nhiem nguon nude

M6 hinh GIBSI cho luu vuc song Clu sau khi dugc hieu chinh vdi cac sd lieu thuc do da dugc sir dung de tinh toan mdt s l kich ban vl nguln thai. Kit qua tinh toan cho cac kjch ban dugc trinh bay dudi day:

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a. Kich ban ve nguon thdi sinh hogt

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Hinh 5: Hien trgng phdn bd BOD5 trong mgng sdng

Hinh 6: Phdn bd BOD5 trong mgng sdng theo kich bdn

Kich ban ve ngudn thai sinh boat dugc nghien ciiu d day vdi gia thiet tat ca cac nguon thai sinh boat cua 2 tinh Bac Can va Thai nguyen deu dat tieu chuan Viet Nam (TCXDVN51- 2008) vl ning do cac chit 6 nhilm nguln loai 2: BOD5<50mg/l, COD<80mg/l, N- NH%<10mg/l, T6ng ph6t pho<6mg/l. Hinh 4 va 5 trinh bay phan b6 n6ng do BOD5 theo kh6ng gian trong toan bg luu vuc tai mgt thdi diem vao mua khd. Tir cac hinb d6 c6 the nhan thay rang cac doan s6ng c6 n6ng do vugt tieu chuan 4mg/l giam ban, chi c6n mgt s6 doan tai thanh ph6 Thai Nguyen. Hinh 7 va hinh 8 so sanh qua trinh n6ng do BOD5 va DO tai Gia Bay trong dieu kien d6ng chay 2005 va 2006. C6 the thay rang n6ng do BOD5 tai Gia Bay cua kich ban co gia tri thap hon ban gia tri m6 pb6ng bien trang. Thdi gian cd ndng do BOD5 vugt 4mg/l giam khoang 3 thang/nam so vdi hien trang.

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Hinh 7: So sdnh ndng dp B0D5 tgi Gia Bdy Hinh 8: So sdnh ndng dp DO tgi Gig Bdy b. Rich bdn ve 6 nhiem do hoat dong nong nghiep

Xem xet 2 kich ban 6 nhiem do boat dong n6ng nghiep: (1) chi c6 ngu6n thai do boat dong n6ng nghiep (kh6ng co ngu6n thai do sinh boat ...); (2) s6 lugng vat nu6i tang deu tai cac

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huyen len 50%). Ket qua tinh toan bien thien n6ng do N-NH% va phIt pho hijru ca tai Gia Bay dugc trinh bay tren hinh 9 va 10. Qua d6 cd the nhan thay rang:

- Vao mua khd tu thang 9 den thang het thang 4, n6ng do cac chat 6 nhiem trong s6ng chii yeu tir cac boat dgng khac n6ng nghiep (sinh hoat, y te, cong nghiep ...).

- Vao thang 5 va thang 6, ndng do cac chat 6 nhiem Ni to va ph6t pho trong s6ng co ngu6n g6c chii yeu tir boat dgng n6ng nghiep (tr6ng trgt va chan nuoi).

- Anh hudng ciia chan nudi den n6ng do chat N-NH% trong s6ng la kh6ng ldn, tuy nhien ddi vdi phdt pho hiiu cd la rit dang ke.

Date (ii/mm/aaaa) Date (ii''i"nrTi''aaaa)

Hinh 9: So sdnh ndng dp N-NH^4 giira cdc kich bdn hogt ddng ndng nghiep: • hien trgng, • khdng cd ngudn thdi sinh hogt, •

sd lupmg vdt nudi tdng 50%

Hinh 10: So sdnh ndng dp Phdt pho hiru co giira cdc kich bdn hogt ddng ndng nghiep: • hien trgng, • khdng cd ngudn thdi sinh hogt,

• sd luang vdt nudi tdng 50%

4. KET LUAN

^ Md hinh GIBSI da dugc xay dimg va kilm dinh cho vung thugng du luu vuc sdng Clu gdm 2 tinh Thai Nguyen va BIC Can. Kit qua kilm dinh m6 hinli la kha tot cho thiy triln vgng ap dung m6 hinh GIBSI vao Viet Nam. Mgt sl kich ban ban diu vl nguln thai sinh boat va hoat dgng n6ng nghiep da dugc nghien ciiu cho phep danh gia anh hudng dgc lap cua cac nguln thai khac nhau. Cac kit qua nghien ciiu da chi ra ring m6 hinh GIBSI la phu hgp dl ap dung phuc vu bai toan quan ly tong hgp tai nguyen nude tren cac luu vuc sdng d Viet Nam.

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T A I L I E U THAM K H A O

1. Arnold J. G., Williams J. R., Srinivasan R., and King K., W. SWAT, Manual USDA ''Agricultural Research Service andBlacklandResearch Center", Texas, 1996.

2. Brown L. C. and Barnwell T. O. J., "/ze enhanced stream water quality models QUAL2 and QUAL2E-UNCAS: Documentation and User Manual", Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, Georgia, U.S., 1987.

3. Fortin J. P., Turcotte R., Massicotte S., Moussa R., and Fitzback J., "^ distributed watershed model compatible with remote sensing and GIS data, part 2: Application to the Chaudi^ere watershed", J. Hydraulic Eng., 6(2), 100-108, 2001.

4. Fedra K., Jamieson D.G., 1996, "The 'WaterWare' decision-support system for river basin planning 2. Planning capability", Joumal of Hydrology, 177-198.

5. Di Luzio M., Srinivasan R., Amold J.G., 2003, ''Integration of watershed tools and swat model into BASINS", Joumal of the American Water Resources Association 38 (4), 1127ell41.

6. Chen C.W., Herr J., Goldstein R.A., Sagona F.J., Rylant K.E., Hauser G.E., 1996.

"Watershed risk analysis model for TVA 's Holston River basin". Water, Air and Soil Pollution 90, 65-70.

7. Villeneuve J. P., Blanchette C , Duchemin M., Gagnon J. F., Mailhot A., Rousseau A.

N., Roux M., Tremblay J. F., and Turcotte, R., "Rapport Final du Projet GIBSI:

Gestion de I'Eau des Bassins Versants 'a I'Aide d'un Syst^eme Informatis'e", Mars 1998: Tome 1., R-462, INRS - Eau, Sainte-Foy, 1998.

8. Refsgaard J.C, Storm B., 1995. MIKE SHE. In: Singh, V.P. (Ed.), "Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology ", Water Resources Publications, Highlands Ranch, CO, pp.

809-846.

9. Ha Nggc Hien, Doan Xuan Thuy, nnk, "Ap dung md hinh thiiy vdn Hydrotel cho luu vuc sdng Cdu ", Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Co hgc toan qudc ky niem 30 nam Vien Co hgc.

Tap 1, pp. 422-432, 2009'.

10. Dam Van Ve, "Du an Diiu tra, thdng ke cdc ngudn thdi, hien trgng mdi trudng vd nhiing tdc ddng mdi trudng den Itru vuc sdng Cdu ", T6ng Cue M6i trudng, 2009.

11. "Hien trgng vd diin biin phdt triin ndng nghiep trong luu vuc sdng Cdu ", Bao cao chuyen de, Vien Cdng nghe Mdi trudng, 2010.

12. "Kit qud khdo sdt chdt lutmg nude trong luu vuc sdng Cdu", Bao cao chuyen de, Vien Cdng nghe M6i trudng, 2010.

13. WHO 1993, "Assessment of Sources of Air, Water and Land pollution - A guide to rapid Source Inventory technique and their use in Formulating Enviromental control Strategy ".

14. Dd Hoai Duong, Nguyen Hdng Khanh, Pham Van Tan, "Hien trgng chdt lupmg nude luu vuc sdng Cdu", Vien Co hgc, 2001.

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