CHINH TRl - LUAT
Nirdc MY TRirdc THCII KY
TONG THONG OBAMA
Ths. N g u y e n Lan Hxidng Vien Nghien ciiu Chdu My
Y eu td' dan tdi cudc cich mang trong chinh sich ddi ndi cua Hoa Ky la cam giac nUdc My dang sd hUu mdt sifc manh to ldn.
Cung cd the tu tudng sd bi tdn thUdng da thuyet phuc gidi lanh dao My c i n phai lim gi dd de cii tao the gidi.
nhUng chinh tu tudng ve sd hUu mdt quyen liic chUa tufng cd da thuyet phuc hp cd the lam dUdc dieu niy. Sau mdi Id ngai ve suf suy yeu cua qud'c gia dc tinh trang tham hut ngan sich v i thifdng mai vao cudi nhUng nam 1980, mdt thap ky p h i t trien kinh te t h i n ky, tien bd ve cdng nghe va t h i n h cdng quan sii dan Hoa Ky tdi ket luan vio nam 2001 l i viec cii tao the gidi la cd the, neu nhu gidi lanh dao Hoa Ky cam ket thiic hien muc tieu nay.
Trong q u i khif, ban nhu mpi vi du deu cho thay chinh cim giac sd hUu quyen lufc la nhan td' quyet dinh chinh sach ddi ndi ciia Hoa Ky ke tif sau Chien tranh the gidi thuf hai: sU p h i t trien kinh te dudi thdi Tdng thd'ng Harry Truman, John F, Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, va Clinton cd xu hudng thiic day Hoa Ky them tii tin va theo chu nghia banh trUdng, trong khi dd nhiing lo ngai ve tham hut v i suy thoii lai mang lai chieu hudng t r i i ngUp'c dudi thdi cac tdng thd'ng Dwight Eisenhower. Richard Nixon va George H,W, Bush,
Vdi Barack Obama, nUdc My se p h i i cd mdt ky nguyen p h i t trien mdi, neu nUdc My mud'n duy tri vi the sieu cUdng sd' mdt the gidi cua minh, chiing tdi hy vpng trinh bay nhutng van de nay d mdt bai viet khic, Trong bai viet nay, chiing tdi trinh b i y tinh hinh nUdc My nhutng nam dau the ky XXI, thdi ky trUdc Obama,
Ve k i n h t e
Cdc dieu kien thudn ldi: The gidi
met thding ddn cufc khcng cd mpt ddi
thu d i n g gdm nao da mang lai cd sd
cho suf tuf tin cua Hoa Ky trong nhutng
nam 1990, Hoa Ky budc vio giai doan
p h i t trien bimg nd mdi bat d i u tif
nam 1992 va keo dai lien tuc cho tdi
tan d i u nam 2001, Cd dUdc dieu niy
mdt p h i n nhd chinh quyen Clinton
tap trung vao ddi mdi kinh te va nhan
manh nhu c i u canh tranh trong nen
kinh te toan c i u boa, Thap ky 90 cua
the ky XX chufng kien chu ky tang
trudng dai nha't trong lich suf kinh te
My vdi td'c dp tang trUdng trung binh
gan 3%/nam, rieng giai ddan 1996-
2000 dat tren 4%/nam. Neu khdng cd
suf can thiep dd thi se khd tao ra dUdc
suf p h i t trien cho dau tU va suf p h i t
trien cao dp ciia Wall Street trong
sudt 107 t h i n g lien tuc. Trong q u i
trinh dd, Tong thd'ng Clinton da xoi
bd thanh cdng can benh kinh nien cua
n e n k i n h te Hoa Ky - t h a m h u t n g i n s i c h v i b a t d i u t h a n g dU tif n a m t i i khda 1998; n e n k i n h te vi md dn dinh vdi mufc l a m p h i t v i t h a t n g h i e p deu d mufc tha'p ky luc; kim ngach ngcai thUdng t a n g vdi n h i p dp 8-10%/nam trdng sud't thdi ky t a n g trUdng, k h u viic thUdng m a i chiem 2 5 % G D P (2000); d i u tU cho n g u d n n h i n lufc ndi chung v i g i i o due, k h o a hpc cdng nghe ndi r i e n g n g a y cang t a n g , td'c dp t a n g n a n g sua't lao ddng d a t k h o i n g 2,5%/nam t r o n g t h a p ky 90 - cao gap ddi td'c dp cua h a i t h a p ky trUdc. M.
Zuckerman, Chii tich kiem Tdng bien t a p t a p chi US New and World Report cho r i n g . My la nUdc dufng d i u t h e gidi ve k i n h te t r o n g t h e ky XX va tiep tuc duy tri vi t r i n a y d t h e ky XXL.
Dieu kien khong thudn ldi: Tuy Hoa Ky d a t dUdc t h i n h tiiu k i n h te td Idn t r o n g sud't 8 n a m t h u d c nhiemi ky cua Tong thd'ng Clinton, nhUng den cudi nhutng n a m 2000, n e n k i n h te My da cd da'u h i e u suy t h o i i . Hoa Ky budc p h i i t u y e n b d k i n h te suy t h o i i b i t d i u tif t h i n g 3/2001, k e t t h u c giai doan p h a t t r i e n " t h i n ky'" cua nen k i n h te ldn nha't t h e gidi n i y . Chi sd t h i trUdng chufng k b c i n My cung sut g i i m d i n g ke, l a m p h a t tiep tuc t a n g t r o n g k h i t h a m h u t m i u dich khdng g i i m , t h a m h u t c i n c i n thUdng m a i d mufc dp n g h i e m t r p n g v i n tiep tuc l i m e t n g u y cd ldn, t h i ' t nghiep t a n g vpt".
C i c ddi t i c thUdng m a i d a n g l i m g i i m k h i n a n g tiep can thi trUdng nUdc n g o i i ciia H o a Ky. Ty g i i t r a o ddi va c i c ludng tU b a n cd t h e t h i n h bien p h i p g i y siic ep hoac b a n che viec tuf do h a n h dpng cua Hoa Ky.
C h i n g h a n , n h i e u ngifdi lo ngai k h i EU t h a n h mpt khdi thifdng mai ldn thi se b a n che k h i n a n g tiep can t h i trUdng cua Hoa Ky. Mdt t h e gidi gdm
nhiing he thd'ng thUdng mai khu vufc c a n h t r a n h n h a u se l i m g i i m sii p h i t t r i e n va sii t h i n h vUdng ciia Hoa Ky hdn la mxpt n e n k i n h te the gidi md.
Khia c a n h nay r a t q u a n trpng ddi vdi viec dieu chinh lufa chpn cbinb sach hay can b a n g quyen lufc cua Hoa Ky.
Hien d a u t u nUdc n g o i i va sd huu no' nUdc n g o i i cua Hoa Ky len den h a n g n g a n ty U S D : Vao cudi nhUng nam 1990, My la mdt t r o n g nhUng con nd ldn nha't the gidi vdi so' tien nd len tdi 1588,7 ty USD, chiem 16,3"o GDP, chi rieng N h a t B i n v i T r u n g Qud'c giU tdi 870 ty USD t r i i phieu kho hac cua Hoa Ky, Neu c i c cUdng qud'c k h i c tan dung vi t h e cua hp vdi tU c i c h la ngifdi b i o l a n h nd chd chinh p h u My thi se gay t i c dpng r a t ldn ddi vdi Hda Ky, Ve lich sii, ddng ddla l i ddng tien dii trU qud'c te, dieu n i y m a n g lai nhUng ldi the r a t ldn cho Hoa Ky, cho nen mpt sii chuyen h u d n g chien lUdc sang ddng Euro se l i m g i i m k h i n a n g Hoa Ky chuyen chi phi dieu chinh kinh te sang cho nUdc k h i c , b a n che sii p h i t t n e n nen k i n h te My ve d i i ban,
Tdc dgng cua sit kien 11/9: Them v i o dd l i nhUng t h i e t hai vat chat va n h a n liic gay r a do c i c vu khiing bd 11/9/2001, Ve v a t chat, Udc tinh thiet h a i h i n g n g h i n ty U S D . Ve n h a n liic, k h o i n g 5.000 ngUdi thudc 80 qudc gia t h i e t m a n g va m a t ich, ddng thdi k h i e n k h d i n g 50.000 ngUdi mi't viec lam t r e n g vdng mpt t u a n sau dd. Sit kien 11/9 lam sup dd m e m tm cua gidi k m h d o a n h va ngUdi tieu dung, gay i n h h u d n g nghiem trpng tdi cic n g i n h : giao dich t r e n thi trUdng von g i i n doan v i c i c chi sd chufng khoan bi bien ddng m a n h , n g i n h bang k h d n g cd nguy cd p h i s i n h a n g Idat, n g a n h bao h i e m Udc t i n h chi t r a tu' 25 - 30 ty U S D cho cic n a n n h a n trong vu khiing bd'.
Nhutng t h a y ddi t r o n g c h i n h s i c h vi md da dUdc t i e n lieu trUdc c u n g vdi viec dng B u s h t h u d c d a n g Cdng h d i len l i m tdng t h d n g . C h i n h q u y e n mdi d i n h Uu tien h a n g d a u che c h i n h sach t i i k h o i (ChUdng t r i n h cat g i a m t h u e k h d n g Id), d i o ngUdc c i c Uu t i e n chinh sach thdi Tdng thd'ng C l i n t o n . NhUng t i c ddng cua sii k i e n 11/9 cang t h u c day cac bUdc c h u y e n t r o n g t u duy c h i n h s i c h cua c h i n h q u y e n mdi: Vai trd cua N h a nifdc t a n g len:
K h u viic cdng vdi c i c ehu'dng t r i n h t a n g chi va trp giup mdt sd' n g i n h k m h te ( h i n g k h d n g . a n n i n h . a n sinh xa hdi...) giiip t a n g cUdng vai trd t r o n g viec p h a n bd n g u d n lufc cua n e n k m h te so vdi vai trd cua k h u vufc tU n h a n t r o n g sud't t h a p ky 90. Cac Uu tien n g u d n lufc c h u y e n tuf k h u vufc d a n suf s a n g q u a n sii. D i u t u tU n h a n c h u y e n dich s a n g qud'c p h d n g v i a n n i n h . N g a y s a u vu k h i i n g bd' 11/9. Bd trUdng Quo'c p h d n g My D o n a l d Rumsfeld da td chufc mdt cudc gap vdi c i c l a n h dao h a n g d i u t r o n g n g a n h cdng n g h e cac de b a n t h i o phu'dng h u d n g d a u t u cho cdng n g h e mdi t r o n g thdi gian tdi. Dieu n a y cho t h a y , c i c s i n g t a o va ddi mdi t r o n g tu'dng lai se di t h e e h u d n g p h u c vu qud'c p h c n g , a n n m h t h a y vi d a t m u c tieu h a n g d i u la t a n g n a n g sua't,
V e c h i n h t r i
Tinh t r a n g t h a m t h u n g n g a n sach khien hai n a m d a u suf m e n h cua Clinton chu yeu d i n h cho cac v a n de chinh tri ben t r o n g , n h u cai c i c h he thd'ng y te cdng cdng, Ta't n h i e n , n h d n g quyet d i n h q u a n t r p n g c u n g dUdc thiic hien t r o n g c h i n h sach ddi ndi, n h u thiic day N A F T A va Q u a n he ddi t i c vi hda b i n h vdi Nga; nhUng suf chii y cua Tdng thd'ng chu yeu t a p t r u n g vao cac v a n de ddi ndi n h a t la
do v a n de da'u t r a n h q u y e n lufc giiia h a i n h a n h h a n h p h a p - lap p h i p , Sii t a p t r u n g vao c h i n h t r i ddi npi t a n g len s a u cudc b a u cuf giuta n h i e m ky n a m 1994, chufng k i e n t h a n h cdng n g o a n m u c c u a m d t qud'c hdi mdi chiem da sc' la d a n g Cdng h d a (dan d a u bdi n h a t a n bao t h u Newt Gingrich, s a u dd trd t h a n h p h i t ngdn ciia H a vien), ca d H a vien v i ThUdng vien. Vdi da sd' t h u d c d i n g Cdng hda t r o n g Qud'c hdi. c h i n h q u y e n lai tiep tuc bi chia re. Cudc da'u t r a n h quyen lufc giuta h a i n h i n h h a n h p h i p v i lap p h i p nd r a cdng k h a i t h d n g q u a chie'n lUdc budc tdi t d n g thd'ng cua d a n g Cdng boa va d a n tdi viec b i u cuf sdm giuta n h i e m ki n a m 1998. Cudc xung dot n g h i e m t r p n g giuta h a i n h i n h c h i n h q u y e n c a n g l a m s u y yeu t h e m vai trd cua t d n g thd'ng t r o n g k h a n a n g m a n g lai mdt suf cd'ket v i lien tuc cua c h i n h s i c h ddi ndi.
Qud'c hdi n g i y c i n g trd n e n cUdng quyet hdn t r o n g cac v a n de c h i n h s i c h ddi npi. n h U n g dieu dd c u n g cd nghia la c i c q u y e t d i n h c h i n h sach ddi ndi c h u ye'u bi dieu c h i n h bdi cac ldi ich rieng, v a n d d n g h a n h l a n g rieng, cac n h d m t a p d c i n , cac u y b a n h i n h dpng c h i n h t r i va cac vumg h a y k h u vufc b i u cuf d c i c b a n g . T r o n g m p t loat c i c cupc l u a n c h i e n ve q u a n diem, Qud'c hdi tii chdi p h e c h u a n H i e p Udc c a m thuf vu k h i h a t n h a n t o a n dien; Qud'c hdi tay c h a y H i e p udc k h d n g p h d h i e n vii k h i h a t n h a n ; Qud'c hdi chi t r i c h Cdng Udc ve q u y e n t r e e m va yeu c i u tdng t h d n g d a m p h a n lai H i e p Udc chd'ng t e n lufa d a n dao n h a m t a o t h u a n ldi cho cac n h d m q u a n suf v i k i n h te t r o n g nUdc. T h e m vao dd, suf coi t h u d n g cac t h e che qud'c te d i n Qud'c hdi tdi viec n g a n H o a Ky t r a nd che Lien hdp qud'c va a p d a t cac dieu kien ddn phUdng len I M F . W B va W T O .
He thd'ng h a i d a n g cua My, ke tuf cudi n h i i n g n a m 1960 chiing kien suf p h a n cufc h o i n h a n h nhUng k h d n g lay chuyen da t i c dpng a n h hUdng s a u sac len chfnh s i c h ddi ndi. Viec da so' nhutng ngUdi Cdng boa n a m giU H a vien v i ThUdng vien tuf n a m 1994 tdi n a m 2006 (truf giai doan n g a n ngui tut t h i n g 6/2001 tdi t h i n g 3/2003 khi d i n g D a n c h u n a m ThUdng vien) r a t quan trpng do nhutng ngudi Cdng boa n a m quyen n g i y c a n g b i o thii, cd he t u tudng a n n i n h ciing r a n v i mud'n t a n g d a m bao ve q u a n suf. T r o n g khi p h i n ldn hp k h d n g lo l a n g q u a n t a m den chinh sach ddi ndi, t h i h a u b e t deu cd q u a n diem tUdng ddi dieu h a u ve vai trd cua My t r e n t h e gidi, t i m quan trpng cua sufc m a n h q u a n suf v i phe p h i n b i n c h a t n h u nhUdc cua chinh quyen Clintcn, cua c i c ddng minh xa xUa va p h e p h a n suf yeu kem cac the che n h u Lien hdp qud'c.
Trong mdi trUdng c h i n h tri phufc tap n h u vay, k e t q u i cua cudc b a u cU nam 2000 da l i m t a n g t h e m sii b a t dn chinh tri t r o n g ndi bd nUdc My. TrUdc bet l i do cudc chien p h i p ly keo d i i h i n g t h i n g trdi de p h a n d i n h ket qua (viec Bush len n a m q u y e n la nhd vao p h i n quyet cua toa i n Florida t h e m phan Uu t h e cho d a n g Cdng h o i cdng vdi viec d a n g n a y g i a n h dUdc sd' ghe quan b i n h d ThUdng vien, va da sd' ghe tai H a vien m a v a n giut dUdc da sd' ghe d Toa a n toi cao), thuf nuta la do nhfing cudc bieu t i n h r i m rd cua h i n g chuc nghin ngudi iing hd chd mdi utng cii vien. K h d n g k h i ddi d i u gifia c i c d i n g p h a i c h i n h tri ndi len r a t rd net.
Qud'c hdi hi chia re k h i so s i n h c i n bang lufc lUdng t r e n c h i n h trUdng My dang d t i n h t r a n g p h a n h o i s a u s i c . Chinh vi vay, Tong thd'ng B u s h len cam q u y e n chiu mpt sutc ep t a m ly
k h i n a n g ne ma theo mdt sd chuyen gia n g h i e n cufu chinh tri My cho r i n g : Day cung la mdt cupc khiing b e i n g chinh tri cua nudc My va dd cung la dieu khd k h a n ma Tong thdng mdi p h i i dUdng d i u . Tdng thdng Bush se p h i i cd g i n g de cd difdc sii hd trp tuf phia Qud'c hpi va d a n chiing ddi vdi chinh s i c h ddi ndi.
N h i e u nghien cufu cho t h i y , khi ty le sd phieu cua d i n g gianh t h i n g ldi t r d n g cudc b i u cuf tdng thd'ng tang, mufc dp u n g hd h a i d i n g cung tang.
NhUng chien t h a n g t r o n g cupc b i u cii tdng thd'ng m a n g t i n h quyet dinh hdn d a n tdi sii umg hd h a i d i n g nhieu hdn la nhUng chie'n t h i n g it m a n g tinh quyet dinh hdn. Ly do l i d i n g t h u a cupc p h i i lo ngai l i m t h e nao g i i n h lai sd' p h i e u cua ngudi umg hp khien hp hdp t i c hdn vdi d a n g g i i n h t h a n g ldi hdn l i ngUdc lai.
Mdt n h a n v a t thudc d a n g Cong boa ndi "Chinh sit bdt dong cua chung ta khien ndi ndy (qud'c hgi) ddn ddn trd nen bdt hdp tdc do cd qud it sit hdp tdc gida lanh dgo cua hai ddng". Mpt b i o
c i o n h a n xet: "Trong sudt hai ndm, Ddi Capitol chdng kien mgt sit be tdc tren nhieu vdn de... vd mgt sd vdn de la do sit cong kich dm i ve ddng phdi trong nhieu nam". Mdt p h u t i tdng thd'ng va mdt n h a tU van tai W a s h i n g t o n cho r i n g : "Trong nhdng ndm gdn ddy, chdc ndng cua cdc the che chinh tri cua chung ta dang bi ldm suy ye'u do sit viidt qud gidi hgn cua tinh ddng phdi. Vdi cdc vdn de nghiem tuc cua qudc gia..., ddc biet Qud'c hdi dang ddn tien tdi sit dd ndt do ldi ich chinh tri ddng phdi dang viidt qud ldi ich qudc gid\ "Ngiidi ta mong ddi mgt sd chien thudt gidnh ldi the ddng phdt chi diing lgi trong cac vdn de ngi bg, nhitng no dang lan sang cdc vdn de ddi ngogi''\
Ket q u i l i Hoa Ky trong nhiing nam 1990 cU xii nhU mdt sieu cUdng hi tam t h i n phan liet bdi tiep tuc cudc dau tranh gifia mdt Qud'c hdi tan bao thu va mdt tdng thd'ng tuf do mdi. Suf phan liet n i y p h i n i n h d c i suf chia re sail sac ve he tu tu'dng giUa hai d i n g v i khd khan trong viec giii quyet sii chia re dd trong he tho'ng chinh tri dua tren sU p h i n chia quyen lufc.
Trong thiic te, nhu Nye giii thich:
Viec hogch dinh chinh sdch dd'i ngi cua Hoa Ky Id mdt tien trinh ldn ldn vi ly do bdt ngudn sdu sdc trong vdn hod chinh tri vd the che chinh tri cua chung ta. Hien phdp ditdc diia tren quan diem tit do cua thd ky XVIII khi quyen lite diidc kiem sodt tot nhdt bdi sit phdn mdng vd gdy dd'i lap kiem sodt vd cdn bdng. Trong chinh sdch dot ngi, Hien phdp luon thu hut tdng thd'ng vd Qud'c hgi vdo cugc ddu tranh gidnh sii kiem sodt. Cugc ddu tranh bi
ldm phdc tgp them khi Qudc hgi vd tdng thd'ng diidc kiem sodt bdi nhdng ddng chinh tri khdc nhau''.
Ve v a n h o a • xa h o i
Tien trinh p h i t trien van h o i - chinh tri va b i n sac dan tdc My didn ra rat phiic tap. Suf quay trd lai chii nghia ddn phUdng hi i p dat bdi nhan to' tien phong la cic vu tan cdng khiing bd 11/9, nhUng cung chac c h i n nd dUdc tad ra tif rat lau trUdc dd (dac biet nam 1994, vdi dang Cdng hda chiem da sd' trong Qud'c hdi. Chii nghia ddn phUdng ciia cudi nhiing nam 1990 l i ke't qua cua suf chi trich lau dai ve nhiing ddng i n h hudng cua chinh sich ddi ndi My trong ky nguyen sau Chien tranh the gidi thuf hai (nhu chii nghia hien thiic, va ly tudng tu do ludn phu thudc l i n nhau), cd dac diem chung la y tifdng cua suf danh ddng dad dufc giiia Hoa Ky va
cac nUdc k h i c . Nd la y tUdng ve mdt chu nghia biet le va tan bao thu Hoa Ky sd'ng lai va chd'ng lai chan thUdng cua phong t r i o ddi quyen dan suf va that bai cua cudc chien tranh Viet Nam. Chu nghia dan tdc bio thii nay la sii phan ufng lai vdi chu nghia dan tdc tu do, trong thdi dai sail Chien tranh the gidi thii hai, dinh hudng n h i nUdc ben trong hudng ve chu nghia da van hda va ve qud'c te theo chii nghia da phUdng, tiep tuc truyen thd'ng da nguyen va logic Madison ciia nen dan chii Hoa Ky. Mdt chu nghia d i n tdc tuf do bdi vi nd diia tren b i n sac chinh tri cua qud'c gia hdn l i diia tren nen tang van hda, tdn giid hay sac tpc.
Chu nghia ddn tgc bdo thu My
Dang sau suf vUdn len cua chu
nghia t i n bao thu l i cic nhan to' van
hoa va xa hdi phufc tap d trong nUdc,
tao ra hai ddng chinh tri ldn. Ddng
dau tien la chu nghia dan tpc cua
ngUdi da trang, vdi nen tang la cac
giai cap trung lUu ldn manh tuf xac
dinh ban than nhU gd'c re cua ngUdi
da trang, ngUdi Anglo-Saxon va ngUdi
My theo dao Tin Lanh. Nhutng ngUdi
n i y thudng dan thfch nghi vdi nhutng
ngUdi Thanh giid da trang tdi tuf cic
vumg Trung va Nam Au, khdng vi ly
dd n i o khac hdn la chd'ng lai nhiing
ngUdi khdng phai da trang hay tham
chi ca nhutng ngUdi da trang khdng
mudn nhan thutc ban than theo cac
gd'c re truyen thd'ng. Ddng chinh tri
d i u tien md ta mdt nUdc My hi tdn
thUdng bdi chu nghia da van hoa
trong do nhan thufc mdi de doa tdi suf
hdp p h i p cua cac gii tri lam nen kinh
nghiem cua nUdc My ve dan chu va
nguyen tac luat phap. Mdi de doa nay
xua't phat tuf cic nhdm nhap cU mdi
(tdi tuf My Latinh, dac biet tuf Mexico,
va tuf chau A), nhUng ngUdi tif chdi
theo tin ngUdng nUdc My, m a duy tri suf t r u n g t h i n h vdi ngdn ngut va b i n sac tdn g i i o cua m i n h . Nudc My m a n g tfnh d a n tdc hdn l i t i n h yeu nUdc t r o n g n h a n thufc b i n t h a n theo cic hien tUdng v a n h o a - sac tdc hdn la t r d n g c i c b a n sac bie'n p h i p v i chinh t r i . D i e u n i y p h a n i n h suf k h i c biet cd b i n vdi c h u n g h i a d i n tdc tuf do My: t r o n g dd c h u n g h i a d i n tdc b i o t h u diia t r e n nhUng dac trUng van h o i cu t h e ciia ngudi theo dao Tin L a n h Anglo-Saxon, chil n g h i a dan tpc t u do diia t r e n nhUng g i i tri chinh tri phd bien cua h i e n p h i p . Dieu nay giai t h i c h t a i sao nUdc My b i o t h u lo sci hi x a m lUdc hoac bi thd'ng t r i bdi c i c n h d m sac tdc ( n h u ngUdi Mexico) da tufng hi d i n h bai trong q u a khuf, nhUng n h d m d a n g gianh suf kiem s o i t v a n h o i t r e n c i c lanh thd (Texas, New Mexico, Arizona va California) m i l i u n a y hp kiem s o i t ve chfnh t r i .
Ddng thuf h a i l i t r i o lUu cua dao Tin L a n h b i n h d i n va hUdng tdi sii hpi t u cua mdt v i i t r i i n g h i e m v a n h o i va tdn g i i o , trUdc h e t l i t r u y e n thd'ng cua t i n h t h a n bien cudng (Frontier), chii ye'u l i t a i c i c b a n g ldn mien N a m . T r u y e n thd'ng n i y , ndi chung dUdc x i c d i n h l i chii n g h i a Jackson vi dac trifng d i n t u y v i d i n tpc ndi b a t cua nd va t r u y e n t h d n g cua ngudi thed dao Tin L i n h Scotland v i ngUdi I r e l a n d chi phdi ky nguyen t i n h t h i n bien cUdng va t h u c day ( b i n g vu lufc) t i e p tuc md rdng; vi ly do n i y , nd ddi hdi dac trUng m a n g tinh quyet d i n h ve q u a n suf va chu nghia b i n h trUdng.
Su gap gd giuta c h u n g h i a d a n tdc ciia ngudi da t r a n g v i chu n g h i a d a n tuy tdn g i i o tao r a mdt p h o n g t r i o chinh tri lan d a u tien g i a n h dUdc suf ling he t r o n g d a n g Cdng h o i v i t h d n g
qua dd, t r o n g cac t h e che chinh quyen chinh cua da't nUdc. Suf kien 11/9 chi c i n g lam t a n g t h e m sUc m a n h cua phong t r i o nay, vi chu nghia dan tpc tdn g i i o cd ve m a n g lai biic tUdng t h a n h chd'ng lai sii xam lupc cua khiing bd'.
Khi G. W. B u s h len lam Tdng thdng My, Texas l i mpt trong nhUng cd sd t i i chinh va chinh tri q u a n trpng cua chii nghia d a n tpc tdn giao va George W. B u s h dai dien cho nd n h u la khdng ai cd t h e dai dien vay. Chu nghia dan tpc tdn g i i o dUdc t r u y e n b i tai mien N a m Hoa Ky s a u dd lan rpng k h i p c i c b a n g tuf do t r u y e n thdng n h u California. Cd t h e ndi rang, trong ngdn ngU v i q u a n diem cua minh, B u s h l i h i n h i n h t h u nhd chu nghia d i n tdc tdn g i i o n i y dudi h i n h thufc t h u i n k h i e t n h a t . Trong thufc te, Texas l i cd sd da'u t r a n h cho kinh nghiem chinh tri t a n b i o thii thilc suf.
Nd l i mpt b a n g cua chu nghia dan tuy tin l i n h t h e hien d c i c i n h a n va cdng ddng. Nd l i mdt b a n g cua chu nghia c i n h a n ich ky, nha'n m a n h vao k h i n a n g cua ngUdi d i n dng (hdn d i n ba) n h a m x a m lUdc mdi t r u d n g va biipc p h i i theo y chi cua d i n dng. Dieu n i y tao r a mdt chu nghia t u b i n gian humg, dac biet trong c i c linh vufc nhU d i u md, ndng nghiep, cdng nghe cao v i tai chinh, gan vdi trd chdi cd hpi hdn l i sac tdc Weber''. Nd la chu nghia t u b i n thich nguy hiem, nhifng khdng n g u y e n t i c ; dac biet l i n h u n g nguyen t i c bao ve mdi trUdng khdng bi khai t h i c d at. Texas l i mdt b a n g ldn (ldn hdn A n h va P h a p cdng lai), nhUng h o a n g vu va t h u dich, ndi r a t kho p h a t t r i e n mdt sii n h a y cam vdi the gidi tuf n h i e n . Texas cung l i mpt bang vdi mdt cdng ddng tin lanh phiic am md rdng, chiu t r i c h nhiem vdi nhieu n h i e m vu ve chinh s i c h xa hpi (chang
b a n n h u hdi n h a p nhutng ngUdi n h a p cU L a t i n h t h d n g q u a c i c chUdng t r i n h hpc tap) m i t r u y e n thd'ng thudc linh vUc cdng.
T e x a s cd t h e difdc xem nhU h i n h thiic ly tifdng cua m e t n h a nUdc t h u nhd. Cd q u a n l u a t p h i p T e x a s hpp h a i n a m mdt l a n t r o n g m p t p h i e n keo dai chi 140 n g i y . Lifdng cua c i c n h a l a m l u a t tha'p nha't d Hoa Ky. chi k h o i n g 7.200 U S D mdt t h i n g n a m 2000. T h e m vao dd, thd'ng dd'c b a n g k h d n g cd q u y e n chi d i n h ndi c i c ciia r i e n g m i n h . Dd la mpt n h i nUdc t h u nhd t r a o n h i e m vu q u a n ly cho c i c t a p doan k i n h te dia phUdng, c h i n g b a n n h u gia d i n h B u s h , c h i c c h i n k h d n g can quy cdng h a y cac n g u d n lufc cdng de thufc t h i q u y e n lufc. T e x a s cung l i n h a nUdc bdi d i n h nghia ve chu n g h i a d i n tdc m a n g t i n h q u a n suf, mdt p h i n bdi nd la mdt t r o n g nhUng dia diem q u a n t r p n g cua cac td hop cdng n g h i e p q u a n suf (ndi ddng c i c d c a n h t r a i q u a n dpi va c i c n g a n h vu k h i q u a n t r p n g c h i e n lUdc) va ciing bdi vi nd la mdt b a n g vdi n e n v a n h o i thich vu k h i c a m t a y . h a u q u i cua k m h n g h i e m md r d n g bien cUdng vd'n la ndi bao life n h a i t a i My. Dd l i mdt n e n v a n h o i vdi t h i e n h u d n g t r p n g n a m rd r i n g . K h d n g n g a c n h i e n , Texas la mdt n h a nUdc ndi cd h i n h p h a t tut h i n h r a t phd bie'n. C h d n g b a n , George W. B u s h , t r o n g n a m cudi l i m thd'ng dd'c cho p h e p 40 vu xuf tuf.
Ddng thdi. c h i n h x i c do n g u d n gd'c cua m i n h . T e x a s la mdt t r o n g n h U n g b a n g dUdc md r d n g nha't, lien tuc tim r a nhfing bien gidi mdi va h i e n n a y la n h u n g t h i t r u d n g mdi. Vi vay, n h a nudc t h u nhd b e n t r o n g dUdc g i n vdi n h a nudc md r d n g b e n ngoai. T r o n g sii t d n g hdp cac t r u y e n thd'ng c h i n h tri m i e n N a m v i phUdng Tay, T e x a s trd t h a n h mdt t a m dia c h a n mdi ve
c h i n h t r i qud'c gia, ciing nhU d N e w York v i M a s s a c h u s e t t s .
C h u n g h i a d a n tdc q u a n suf va tdn g i i o la d p n g cd thiic d a y cho viec c h u y e n s a n g budc n g o a t ddn phUdng t r o n g c h i n h s a c h ddi ndi ke tuf n h i i n g n a m 1990 ( t r o n g Qud'c hdi) va tuf n a m 2 0 0 0 ( t r o n g chute v u Tong thd'ng). Nd l i n e n t a n g c u a c h u n g h i a d i n tdc b i o t h u mdi, ta't n h i e n bao gdm c i cac d d n g b a o t h u k h a c . C h u n g h i a d i n tdc b a o t h u cd' g a n g t h u hiit t h i n h cdng t r u y e n thd'ng biet le ciia My, n h U n g dUdc d i e n giai b a n g n h U n g tuf ve v a n b o a h d n l i n h i i n g tif ve c h i n h t r i . Vdi nhutng ngUdi d a n tdc b i d t h u , H o a Ky l i n g o a i le bdi q u i khut v a n h o a c u a nd h d n l i bdi tUdng lai c h i n h t r i c u a nd. Q u a khut n i y k h i n g d i n h , H o a Ky la n g o a i le vi suf d u y t r i n i e m t i n vao d a n c h u va t u do. N h U n g n e u nUdc M y td't mdt each n g o a i le t h i k h i dd nd c u n g cd t h e cd q u y e n lufc m d t each n g o a i le bdi sufc m a n h c u a nd dUdc suf d u n g t r u n g viec t h e o dudi d i e u td't. Vdi c i c n h a t i n b a o t h u , H o a Ky la dieu td't c i n t h i e t b a t cii k h i n a o H o a ky l a m gi d t r o n g va n g o i i nUdc. Vi vay, c h u n g h i a b i e t le b a o t h i i mdi k h d i p h u c nUdc My k h d i suf hdi ldi c u a c h u n g h i a d a n tpc tuf do c u a n h i i n g n a m 1960. Nd p h u c hdi bi m a t ve chii n g h i a b i e t le My, vd'n tufng hi d a t v a n de m p t e a c h n g h i e m tiic (ben ngoai) b a n g t h a t b a i t a i V i e t N a m v i (ben t r o n g ) b a n g suf chi t r i c h c u a p h o n g t r i o ddi q u y e n d a n suf. Vdi c h u n g h i a d a n tpc b a o t h u My, H o a Ky p h i i diia vao b a n t h a n , t r o n g nUdc va qud'c t e . Nd cd p h a m cha't dao dufc va sufc m a n h q u a n suf de h i n h t h a n h n e n b i n t h a n va t h e gidi p h i i h d p vdi n h i i n g gia t r i n e n t a n g ( v a n h o a va t d n giao) ciia nd.
Ve q u a n si^
Bat ky suf d i n h g i i nao ve b i quyen mdi ciia Hoa Ky c u n g c i n t i n h tdi mdt cdng cu quyen lufc q u a n trpng n h a t - nhUng k h i n a n g q u a n suf can cd de dap t a n ke t h u , kiem s o i t ddng minh, duy tri i n h hUdng va n e u c i n chien t h a n g t r o n g chien t r a n h . Viec Lien Xd, Ddng Au sup dd k h d n g t h e bao chda trUdc dU l u a n c i c nUdc cho mufc cbl phi q u i n suf gia t a n g cua Hoa Ky ma chi n h a n m a n h t h e m mufc dp vUp't trpi cua Hca Ky. Ke tuf s a u n a m 1992, h i n g n a m rieng Hea Ky chiem tdi 40% chi phi q u a n suf t h e gidi. Vao nam 2000, chi p h i q u i n suf Hoa Ky hdn 280 ty U S D , chi it hdn 14% so vdi mufc chi h a n g n a m ciia thdi ky Chien t r a n h L a n h . C i c nUdc c h a u Au trong NATO dufng thuf h a i vdi chi phi q u a n suf cbl b a n g 152 ty U S D , cdn Nga dufng thuf ba vdi mufc chi phi 50 ty USD. Tuy n h i e n , vdi mufc n h u vay Hoa Ky cung mdi chi chi chUa tdi 3%
GDP cua minh, t r o n g khi nUdc P h i p la nUdc dufng thuf h a i ve mufc chi phi qud'c phdng/GDP la 2,5% vdi 40 ty USD. Ndi each k h i c , Hoa Ky l i nifdc dpc tdn ve k h a n a n g q u a n suf so vdi 5 nUdc ke tiep m i chi can chi t h e m trong GDP l i 0,5% so vdi nUdc dutng thut hai. Mpt nufa t r o n g sd' c i c vu budn b i n vu k h i - len tdi 55 ty U S D vao nam 1998 l i ciia ngUdi My. Hoa Ky l i nudc s i n x u a t vii khf t h d n g thu'dng ldn n h a t va chi p h i n g h i e n cifu va p h i t trien cho q u a n sii cao hdn 7 l i n nUdc P h i p - nUdc dufng thuf h a i sau My. Hoa Ky l i mdt t r o n g s d i t nUdc cd chi phi q u a n suf t a n g t r o n g n h d n g nam 1990.
Chinh quyen B u s h diidc thiia hudng lufc lUdng qud'c p h d n g h u n g manh: "LUc liidng qudn sit My bao triim todn cdu... todn thd gidi ndm trong phgm vi dnh hiidng cua My...
thi/c liic qudn sit My khong gi sdnh ndi"\ Lufc lUdng 270.000 quan tien tieu d chau Au. chau A v.a Trung Ddng. Co 1.100 can cif quan su 0 tren 50 bang va t h u dd Washington, My cdn duy tri 209 can cii quan sii d 35 nu'dc va vung l a n h thd tren the gidi".
My cdn cam ket bd trd phong thu hoac ung hp cic nd liic q u a n sii cua 31 nUdc va ky hiep dinh hdp tac quan sii vdi 29 nu'dc k h i c \
Ngoai ra, Uu the sue m.anb quan suf cua My cdn n a m trong Hnh vuc khoa hpc - ky t h u a t - cdng nghe. My la nUdc duy n h i t cd he thd'ng vu khi d i n dudng b a n g he thd'ng dinh vi toan c i u . Hai cudc chien t r a n h vung Vinh va Kosovo chufng m i n h t r i n h dp ky t h u a t cua vu k h i t i c chien My vUdt xa cic nUdc T i y Au. Xu hUdng t a n g cUdng sufc m a n h q u a n suf dat dUp'c tifdng ddi thd'ng n h a t t r o n g ndi bp My. Nhifng do sii tdn thUdng cua Hoa Ky trUdc c i c cdng nghe hien nay - chang ban m i y bay chd k h i c h t h i n h chd vu khi, khdng rd lieu ldi the tuyet ddi ve k h i n a n g q u a n sii trong mdt cupc chien t r a n h cd the chd'ng lai nhUng mang ludi k h u n g bd' md i o .
Ve k h o a h o c c o n g n g h e
K h i i niem "The ky T h i i Binh DUdng" vdi q u a n diem phe bien che r i n g N h a t B i n t h a n h mdi de doa nghiem trpng cho suf b i quyen k m h te cua My da hi sup dd' [37, tr.330]. Vao d i u nhUng n a m 1990. hau bet cac chuyen gia van du doan ve su la thifdng cua phifdng thdc Nhat Ban. va dieu nay g i y nguy hiem cho Hoa Ky.
V i i n a m sau dieu nay trd t b a n h lap l u a n vd can cif. C h i c chan tai thdi diem chuyen giac t h e ky. rat it phan tich n g h i e m tiic chd t h a y cheu lo ngai nay, va k h d n g p h a n tich nao dii doan N h i t t h a v the vi tri ba (luyen cdng
nghe cua Hoa Ky. Dieu n i y the hien rd rang trong bio cio quan trpng dUdc xuat ban tai Nhat nam 1999. NhU bao cao cho thay, Hoa Ky van vUdt xa trong tat ci nam linh vufc quan trpng nhat ciia nen kinh te thdng tin mdi.
Trong linh vUc chat b i n dan, cic cdng ty cua My tham chi cdn khang dinh dUdc c i ldi the ve cdng nghe va thi p h i n sd vdi cic cdng ty ciia Nhat, trif thi p h i n ve cic con chip re tien (low- end mem.ory chip), Trong khi dd, trong linh viic vi mach xuf ly, cac cdng ty Hoa Ky nam chat suf kiem soit thi trUdng t o i n ciu cua hp, hp chi phdi trong cic thi trUdng p h i n mem sinh ldi hdn va trong l i n sdng mdi nha't trong cdng nghe thdng tin dUdc thiic day bdi Internet, Hoa Ky cung vUdt xa Nhat. Vid thdi diem chuyen giao the ky. thich thufc ve cdng nghe cua Nhat Bin da hoin t o i n bien mat.
Chinh quyen Bush dUdc thufa hudng mdt yeu td' quan trpng tao nen siic manh cho nUdc My - khoa hpc cdng nghe. Thap ky 90, each mang tin hpc thufc sU bimg nd d My, t i c ddng manh me den mpi khia canh kinh te - xa hdi My va the gidi. Chi tinh trong 4 nam (tuf 1994-1998) d i u tU vac cdng nghe tin hpc cua My tang den 86% (so vdi 40% cua cic nganh kinh te khic).
Cdng nghe tin hpc chiem 8% trong nen kmh te My nhUng tao ra 30%
tang trifdng ciia GDP'°.
Nhd cich mang cdng nghe, nha't l i each mang tin hpc, nUdc My tao dUdc sue manh vUdt hac ve kinh te (sufc manh tuyet ddi, sufc canh tranh cho nen kinh te va chuyen sang nen kinh te t n thdc...), tang cUdng manh me sufc manh quan suf (tuf ddng hoi, sd hpc boa.,, tao nen dp chinh xic cao, uy lUc manh cua vii khi,..).
Ve khoa hpc - cdng nghe, chi phi cho nghien cutu va phat trien khoa hpc (R&D) cua My chie'm 40,6% trong tdng chi phi toan c i u la 657,2 ty USD.
Bang p h i t minh khoa hpc cua My chiem hdn 60% toan bd so' phat minh khoa hpc tren the gidi. My di d i u trong 20/29 n g i n h khoa hpc v i cdng nghe mui nhpn cua the gidi, dac biet l i trong linh vufc cdng nghe tin hpc.
Cuing vdi nhUng van de qud'c te, day chinh la nhutng van de ndi bd ndi bat da gdp p h i n thiic day suf ra ddi cua hpc thuyet Bush •
Chu thich:
1) Foreign Affairs, 'Vdi 5 + 6/1998, tr. 31.
2) Nguyen Thiet Sdn (2002), Nu6c My nhiing nam dau the ky XXI, Trung tam Khoa Hoc Xa hdi va Nhan van Qud'c gia, Trung tam Nghien ciiu Bic My, NXB Khda hoc Xa hoi.
Ha Noi, tr.103.
3) Theriault, Sean M. (2006), Party Polarization in Congress. University of Texas, Texas, tr.3-4.
4) Nye, J. Jdseph S. (2002), The Paradox df American Power. 'Why the Wdlrd's
Superpdwer Can't Gd Alone, Oxford University Press, Oxford, t r . l l 2 .
5) Fabbrini, Sergid (2006), The United States Cdntested, Routledge, Londen and New Ydrk, tr.20
6) Tap chi Kinh te'vd chinh tri the gidi, Trung Qudc, Sd 4/2000.
7) Evinger, "William R. (1998), Directory df U.S. Military Bases Wdrldwide {y' Edition), Oryx Press, Londdn.
8) Tap chi Nghien cdu qudc te, So' 5(48)/thang 10 - 2002, tr.28.
9) Cdx, Michael (2001), "Whatever Happened td American Decline? Internatidnal Relatidns and the New United States Hegemony', New Political Economy, 6 (3), tr.330.
10) Tap the tac gia (2001). De tai "Dii bad chinh sach cua chinh quyen Bush doi v6i chau A - Thai Binh Ditdng". Vu Chau My, Bo Ngoai giad, Ha N6i, t r . l 8 .
