Trong thdi gian g^n d§y, d$c biOt 1^ tQ nam 2009, viSc huy dOng TPCP b^ng d6ng nOi t§ trd n^n kh6 khSn hon thd hiOn a hdng loat c^c phi§n dku th^u TPCP "dong bang" tren c^ sd GDCK vd KBNN. B^n canh 66, trong thdi gian qua cung xu^t hi0n tinh trang thi6u hut ngu6n cung ngoai tO cho thi trudng ngoai t0 khidn cho ty gia VND/USD ludn'cdng thing", d^n ddn {^ gid tr6n thi trudng tU do b6 xa khoang cdch vdi ty gia chinh thQc do NHNN cdng b6. Mdt thuc td nOa cho thdy, khi ndn kinh td thd gidi ndi chung, vd tdng trudng kinh td ViSt Nam ndi ri§ng cd ddu hidu phuc h6i vd di Idn sau "cdn bao" tdi chinh 2008-2009, thi nhu cdu ngoai td dang dUdc dU
bdo se tidp tuc tdng nhanh trong thdi gian tdi. Dd gi^m dp lUc vd cdu ngoai td, Thu tudng Chinh phu trong ndm 2009 da ban hdnh Quydt dinh 211/QO-TTg vd vide phat hdnh trai phidu Chinh phu b^ng ddng ngoai td trdn thj trudng vdn trong nudc. Tuy nhien, hidn nay mdt vdn 6^ dang dUdc gidi ddu tU vd phdn tich quan tdm vd gdy nhidu tranh cai, dd Id vide ndn hay khdng ndn tidp tuc phat hdnh TPCP b^ng ddng ngoai td trdn thj trudng vdn ndi dia.
PHAT HANH TRAI PHIEU CHINH PHU BANG D 6 N G NGOAI ! £ 6 VIET NAM-
nen hay khong nenP
Ths. BINH AN
Tac ddng cua v i f c phat hanh TPCP biing d6ng ngoai t e trdn thj trUdng v6n trong nUdc
Tde dong tich ctfc:
Thff nhift, g6p phan gia tang dff trff bing dong ngoai te cho NHNN, giiip Chinh phii de dieu tiet cung cau ngoai te, giki quyet cdc vS'n de vT mo nhxf cdn can thffdng mai,...
Thff hai, TPCP bang dong ngoai te se gdp phan da dang hoa ngu6n hang cho TTCK, gdp phan lam giim vk ti^n tdi
\ok bd cd che tfn dung ngoai te. Cu the, cdc doanh nghiep xui't nhap khau, khi co nguon thu ngoai tS tam thdi
CO th^ dau tff vao loai hinh trdi phieu nay, nhff vay, mffc lai suat thu dffdc se cao hdn lai suat khi gffi tai ngin hkng (theo quy dinh hi$n hknh, lai suat bing dong ngoai te cua cdc ddn vi xuat khau gffi tai ngdn hang la 1%/nam).
Ngffdc lai, khi doanh nghiep can vd'n, hp se de ddng tiep cdn dffdc thong qua thi trffdng sd ed'p vd thff ea'p.
Thff ba, Viet Nam Id nffdc dang phdt tri^n, mffc xep hang tfn nhidm cffa cdc tS chffc xep hang tfn nhiem cho Viet Nam Id tffdng doi tha'p, do dd de huy ddng dffdc TPCP bing dong ngoai t6 tren cdc TTTP quoc t^ se phdi chiu mpt mffc lai su^t tffdng d^i cao. VI vay, n6'u vi6c chi phi bo ra de huy ddng trong nffdc thd'p hdn, Chlnh
phu se phdt hanh TPCP bang dong ngoai te trong nffdc. Nhff vdy, se giup Chinh phii huy dpng dffdc von vdi lai suat tha'p hdn, chi phi it hdn.
Tde dong tiea ede:
Phdt hanh TPCP bang d6ng ngoai te dem lai mot s6' ldi ich nha't dinh, nhffhg lai chtfa dffng nhieu rui ro.
Cu th^:
Thff nhi't, riii ro t^ gid.
Vi6c phdt hanh TPCP bang ngoai te, d6ng ngMa vdi vi6c Chinh phu tham gia vao ciu ngoai tb, gay sffc ep ldn ty gid, qua dd se lam gia tdng gdnh nang rffi ro ty gia cho ngdn sdeh nha nffdc. BSn canh do, ne'u Chinh phii khdng kiem sodt dffdc bi^n dpng ty gid thi rui ro cd thi se khong lffdng
y\nli: III
he't dffdc khi tien dong bi md't gid manh.
Thff hai, rui ro ve quan ly np.
Viec phdt hanh TPCP bang ngoai te se lam gia tang gdnh ndng nd bang ngoai te trong cd ca'u nd quoc gia. Nd nffdc ngoai trong cd ca'u nd cua Vidt Nam dang d mffc cao (chie'm 32.55% GDP) (Nguon: Bp Tai chfnh), trong do nd cong nffdc ngoai chiem 60%. Viec phdt hanh them TPCP bang ngoai te day Chinh phu phai doi mat vdi ca rui ro thanh toan vd rui ro ty gid.
Thff ba, gdy ra flnh trang ma't can doi bang tien, din den flnh trang cang thing va khd Idem sodt tren thi trffdng ngoai hoi. Thffc te d Viet Nam trong nam 2009 da xay ra flnh trang cang thang ngoai td do cdc khoan vay va vien trd nffdc ngoai, kieu ho'i va khdch du lich giam bdi tac ddng cua khung hoang tai chinh the gidi. Ben canh do, nhdp sieu cd giam nhffhg vdn d mffc cao 12,2 ty USD so vdi mffc 17 ty USD cua nam 2009). Trong khi do, cung ngoai te lai giam dang ke do dff trff ngoai te cua NHNN giam (dff trff ngoai te vao khoang 16 ty vao cudi nam 2009, so vdi mffc 20 t^ USD d thdi diem dau nam).
Trong nam 2010 tinh trang cang thing ngoai td vdn tid'p tuc. Ngoai ra, vide phat hanh TPCP bang ngoai td ne'u khdng kiem sodt tot se
khie'n cho hoat ddng "rffa tien" cd the gia tang.
Thff tif, khd khan trong viec dieu hdnh chfnh sach tien te. Bdi vi, vide phdt hanh TPCP bang ngoai td se tao nen mpt mdc lai sua't dd'i vdi dong ngoai td (USD) trong nffdc, khi do lai sua't bang dong npi td nhff lai sua't cd ban va lai sua't tai chiet kha'u cung phai dffdc diiu chinh dffa trdn mffc lai sua't nay thi mdi dam bao dffdc stf on dinh trong thi trffdng tien td. Tuy nhien, dieu nay lai khid'n cho chinh sdeh tien td trd ndn cffng nhac va cdc muc tidu cua chinh sach tien td se khong dat dffdc hidu qua.
Thff nam, gia tang flnh trang do la hod nen kinh te. Thffc chat, van de phdt hanh TPCP bang d6ng ngoai td mang tfnh hai mat dd'i vdi vdii dl dd la hod: mdt mat, huy dpng TPCP bang dong ngoai td qua he thong Ngdn hang va Kho bac se gdp phan lam gidm tinh trang dd la hod nen kinh te, dieu nay cd nghia la se huy dpng dffdc mpt Iffdng ngoai td trdi noi trong nen kinh td' vao he thdng ngdn hang (chinh thffc). Tuy nhien, mat khdc, khi TPCP bang ngoai td dffdc phep giao dich trdn thi trffdng, dffdc elm CO, repo,... lai cd the lam gia tang mffc dp do la hod do vide thffa nhan vide giao dich chinh thffc bang dong ngoai td.
Kinh nghiem quoc t ^ Ted Venezuela
Venezuela dffdc ddnh gid la kiim sodt cdc luong vd'n ngoai td ra vdo da't nffdc khd chat che, bao gom cd fl-di phid'u.
Dd'i vdi cdc doanh nghidp kinh doanh d nffdc ndy thi tioTdng trdi phid'u ngoai td dang Id mpt nguon quan trpng de giao dich ngoai hoi thanh todn cho nhap khau trong nhffng nam gan day bdi vi chfnh phu duy tri kiem sodt chat che ty gid hdi dodi vd cung cap khoi Iffdng USD cd gidi han vd d cdc ty gid chinh thffc khdc nhau doi vdi cdc doanh nghidp. Vf du, ty gid 2.6 bolivars/USD dffdc dp dung cho cdc doanh nghidp thudc linh vffc hang hod ffa tidu hang dau nhff thffc pham va thuoc men; vd mffc t^ gid 4.3 boUvars/USD cho cdc hang hod phi thiet yd'u.
Do dd, dan dd'n mdt hidn tffdng thid'u hut nguon cung san cd tff phfa chfnh phu dd'i vdi cdc doanh nghidp thudc Enh vffc tff nhdn, khien cho cdc doanh nghidp nay bupc phai mua do la trdn thi trffdng chd den (trffdc thang 9/2009, ty gid trdn thi trffdng chd den d Venezuela ldn tdi 7 boUvar/USD).
Trong thdi gian gan day, NHTW Venezuela da vd dang thffc hien cdc kd' hoach bdn TPCP bang dong ngoai te trdn cdc thi trffdng npi dia. Cu the:
Trong nam 2009, nffdc nay da bdn 3 ty USD TPCP bang ngoai td ti-ong nffdc, vdi lai sud't 7.75- 8.25%/nam. Vdi cdc muc tidu:
• Bu dap cho sff thid'u hut ngan sdeh
• Duy tri xu hffdng tang gid cua dong bdn td
• Cho phep cdc doanh nghidp dd ddng tid'p can ngoai td d mffc gid re hdn.
Hoat ddng nay cua Chfnh phu Venezuela dffdc ddnh gid la mpt trong nhffng ddng thdi ndi long kiem soat dd'i vdi cdc giao dich ngoai hd'i vd cho phep ding Bolivar tdng cffdng gia tri so vdi dong dd la
QUAN L t N G A N Q U Y Q U 6 C GIA I S6 107 I 5/2011
KINH T i vi MO
ti-dn thi trffdrxg chd den, Thffc td' da giup tdng gid ding bdn td cua nffdc ndy ldn mffc 5.2 Bolivar/USD trong thdng 9/2009 ti-dn thi tiirdng chp den- vd dffdc ddnh gid Id mffc ty gid cao nhd't ti-ong ndm 2009.
Theo kd' hoach ndy, TPCP bing ngoai te dffpe bdn tiiTc tid'p tdi ngffdi dan song ho^c cff irii I'l Venezuela, ngffdi ddn cd thi thanh todn trdi phie'u bing ding bdn t^.
Cdc nhd dau tff sau dd cd the chuyen dii TPCP lay ngoai t$
(USD) tren thj trffdng trai phid'u.
Tqi Philippines
Tai chau A, cd 2 qud'c gia da vd dang thffc hi$n phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td trong nffdc Id Vi^t Nam vd Philippines.
Chinh phii Philippines thffc hi$n phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td trdn thi trffdng vd'n trong nffdc dffdc cdc chuydn gia nffdc ngodi ddnh gid Id gidi phdp mang tfnh chfnh sdeh hdn Id van dl phdp ly.
Viec phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai te trong nffdc la khdng thffdng xuydn, khdng dinh ky, vd vdi muc ^ch:
• Tdi trd cho thdm hut ngdn sdeh ciia Chfnh phu
• Dau tff vdo mdt sd' cd sd ha tang nhat dinh.
Trong nam 2009, Chfnh phu Philippines da thdng cdng trong ddt phdt hanh 300 tridu USD vd phan ldn trong so ndy dffdc ban cho cdc cd nhan nffdc ngodi dang ldm vide tai PhiUppines.
Ndm 2010, Chfnh phii nffdc ndy cung dang phdt hdnh 25 ty USD trffc tiep cho Chfnh phu vd thffc hidn bdo lanh phdt hdnh 10 ty USD cho cdc DNNN TPCP bing ngoai td tidn thi tiifdng von ti-ong nffdc.
Thffc td' kinh nghidm qud'c td' cho tiiay, hau hit cdc nffdc ti-dn tiie gidi chi phdt hanh TPCP bing ding ngoai td tidn thi tiiTdng qu^c te.
Nhffhg nffdc phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td ldn nhff Achentina (95%
tong TPCP phdt hdnh), Luxembourg (88%) vd Rusia (70%) ciing chi phdt hdnh ti-dn tiii trffdng quoc te. Ben canh dd, cdc
qud'c gia ndy thffc hi|n phdng ngffa thanh khodn ngoai tc rd't td't bdi cdc Chinh phu ndy cd nguin tiiu ngo^i t§ ra't ldn tff cdc hoat d^ng xud't kh^u (nhff dlu lffa, kim loai,...)
Nhiiu nffdc, d$c bi^t Id cdc nffdc phdt triin cdn quy dinh rd rdng h^n mffc ngoai t$ ti-ong cd c§fu np qud'c gia dudi 10% vd trdnh vay np bang ding ngo^i t^ nhff Phdp , Dffc , My, Singapore vd Trung Quic... Bdn canh dd, nhiiu nffdc trdn the gidi cdn khdng cho ph6p cd hoat dOng tfn dyng ngoai t^, ddc bi^t Id tin dyng ngoai t^ ngin han;
nhiiu nffdc tiiffc hi^n nghidm cafm vi^c tiianh todn hdng hod, dich vy tiong nffdc bing ngoai t$,...
Vi^c phdt hdnh TPCP bing ding ngoai t^ trong nffdc Id rat han chd', bdi 2 1^ do:
• Riii ro dii vdi vi^c qudn l^' nd cdng lidn quan dd'n ty gid hl^i dodi.
• Gia tdng lo ngai vl tinh trang dd la hod
Tuy nhidn, cdc Chinh phu cung cd till phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td (cd trong nffdc vd trdn thi trffdng qud'c td', nd'u cdc Chinh phu can doi dffdc riii ro ty gid vdi cdc nguin tiiu tff ngoai t$ cua qud'c gia. Tuy nhidn, van dl dd la hod Id gin nhff Id chic chan xdy ra tiong trffdng hdp phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td ti€n tiii trffdng vd'n ndi dia.
• De gidm tde dpng cffa rui ro nd cdng chinh phu: Trong trffdng
hdp phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai t$, cdc Chinh phii cln phdi c6 phdng ngffa rui ro d^i vdi tiianh khodn bing ngoai tp, n^u khdng nhffng tde ding ciia bien dOng t^
gid se gdy ndn riii ro rat ldn cho cdc Chinh phii.
(M|t so chuydn gia cho ring d l gidm thiiu tde dOng cua riii ro t^ gid, Chinh phu cd tiie duy tii t^
gid CO djnh bing cdch luat hod t^
gid nhff trffdng hpp ciia Hong Kong. Tuy nhidn, d l ldm dffdc nhff vdy, ddi hdi cdc Chinh phu phdi c<3 mOt nguin Iffc dff trff ngoai tp du ldn vd cd thi can thidp dffdc vdo thi trffdng trffdc nhffng cu s6c ldn tff bdn ngodi).
• Dl gidm tiiilu tie dOng cua tinh trang dd la hod tao ndn do vi$c phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai te trong nffdc thi cdc Chinh phu can day manh nhffhg gidi phdp kiim sodt chdt cdc hoat ddng do la hod. v l mdt ly thuyet, mpt nffdc cd dong tiin tff do chuyen doi se khdng tiiffc hidn phdt hdnh TPCP bing ding ngoai te tinong nffdc, vi nhff the se lam gia tdng mffc do dd la hod. Ngffdc lai, cdc nffdc c6 nin kinh te hpi nhdp nhffhg chi£a cd ding tiin tff do chuyin doi thi vide phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai tp lai cd thi la gidi phdp de ldm gidm dp Iffc dd la hoa nen kinh te ne'u cd nhffhg gidi phdp kiem sodt chdt cdc hoat dpng dd la hod nhff nghiem ca'm tff do mua bdn.
C'ouuiiy R-iukiug Bai*ri ou G«\-*rtiui»nt Boodt GDP
Tlui figiuf show4 Ihe au»iu» ouiiimiding of joveniianit boiidi m-n GDP Coiium?> HK ranked ia dnceuduf oider ai of DfCMuber .'1. 2000. Dnm ntf di\id*d lU m-o c.itegon« bnwd on the nniency of ituuiKe
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• • | • •
Nguon: ECyResourees/SchmuklerRIE.p(ff \
tiianh todn bing ngoai td ciia cd nhan, dai ly ngodi ngdn hang,...
Bdi hoe eho Viel Nam
Hoat ddng huy ddng vd'n bing dong ngoai td trdn thi trffdng vd'n trong nffdc tuy da cd mdt so' vdn bdn quy dinh vd hffdng ddn tiii hdnh, tuy nhidn vdn dang ddt ra nhiiu va'n dl do hoat dpng dd'u thiu TPCP bing dong ngoai td van khdng hidu qud, ddc bidt Id muc tidu thu hut dffdc Iffdng ngoai td mdi tff thi trffdng tff do vd tff nguin xua't khau cua cac doanh nghidp, tff kid'u hd'i, cd nhan khdng dat dffdc kd't qud mong mud'n. Luing vd'n ngoai td vdn chi ddn thuin Id sff luan chuyin vd'n tff cdc NHTM va NHNN hay Bp Tdi chinh.
Qua kinh nghidm cdc nffdc cd till thd'y ring hiu hit cdc nffdc trdn the gidi khdng thffc hidn huy ddng TPCP bing ngoai te trdn thi trffdng vd'n ndi dia. Tuy nhidn, khdng the kd't luan ring ndn hay khdng ndn huy ddng TPCP bing ngoai td ma phdi ddt nd trong bd'i cdnh ciia dd't nffdc, tuy tiftig thdi ky, thdi dilm.
De hoat ddng huy ddng TPCP bing dong ngoai td dem lai hidu qud cao, theo chffng tdi cln tap trung lam rd mdt sd' van dl sau:
Thff nhat, cln nghidn cffU thdi dilm phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td. Chinh phu khdng ndn phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td trong boi cdnh sffc ep dd la hda cao, khi sffc ep do la hda nin kinh td' dffdc ndi long Chinh phu cd thi can nhac de phdt hdnh TPCP bing ngoai td.
Thff hai, van dl do la hda nin kinh td'. Dl huy ddng TPCP bing ngoai td cd hidu qud, dffdng nhidn Nha nffdc cln phdi tao lap mdt thi trffdng giao dich loai hinh trdi phid'u ndy, ding thdi phdi cho phep thffc hidn cdc nghidp vu repo, elm co,...
nhff vdy dong nghia vdi vide Nhd nffdc thffa nhdn vide nidm yd't vd giao dich chfnh thffc bing ngoai td- vd'n dl lai ldm gia tang hidn tffdng dd la hda nin kinh tC vd ed till "tao tiin"- di ngffdc lai vdi muc tidu kiim che lam phdt cffa chfnh sdeh tien td.
Thff ba, va'n dl ca'u tiiic tiii trffdng. Ca'u true thj trffdng Id mpt vd'n dl ra't quan tipng vi vdy, cln tid'p tuc nghidn cffu gidi phdp dl khuyen khich cdc dd'i tffdng Id cdc doanh nghidp, cd nhdn tham gia hoat ddng dd'u tiilu TPCP bing ngoai te. Ne'u khdng tid'p cdn dffdc cdc ddi tffdng ndy thi mdt Iffdng ldn ngoai td van tid'p tuc bi "gdm giff"
tiong dan cff, khid'n cho thi trffdng tff do vdn tid'p tuc tin tai vd phdt triin vd tde ddng manh dd'n cd thj trffdng chinh thffc. Tuy nhidn, bdn canh dd cln phdi ddt trong bd'i cdnh cua chinh sdeh tiin td, bdi vi nd'u khuyd'n khich cdc DN tham gia vdo till trffdng TPCP bing ngoai td (DN se tang cffdng mua TPCP bing ngoai td dl tidnh lai sud't tiid'p khi gffi tai NHNN) tiii chinh sdeh tdi chinh lai di ngffdc chinh sdeh tiin td Id tdng cffdng dff trff va kiim soat
ngoai hd'i,...
Thff tff, ky han, ldi sua't vd khd'i Iffdng phdt hdnh. Day Id mdt van dl rat khd khdn, nd dnh hffdng dd'n kit qud dd'u thiu TPCP bing ngoai td.
Nd'u ky han vd lai sud't khdng hdp ly, ket qud se lam tdng chi phi hoat ddng tiong khi Iffdng gpi thiu se bi ddng bdng. Tuy nhidn, nd'u ldi sua't cao, vd khd ndng lam phdt gia tang se gdy ra hien tffdng ngffdi dan chuyin dich manh tff ding Viet Nam sang nam giff USD gay sffc dp ldn flnh trang dd la hda vd "edng thang" t^ gid. Khd'i Iffdng phdt hdnh cung phdi dffa trdn can dd'i nhu elu von tff NSNN, gdnh nang nd quoc gia vd rui ro cffa t^ gid. Cln tinh todn mdt ty trpng hdp If dffa trdn cd cd ca'u tin dung ndi td vd ngoai td cua NHNN.
Thff nam, ding ngoai td phdt hdnh. Thffc td' cho tha'y, chffng ta ndn phdt hdnh TPCP bing cd USD vd EURO va tham chi cd ding ydn Nhdt vd dffa trdn mpt cd ca'u nhd't dinh vd lai sud't khdc nhau. Neu lam dffdc nhff vdy, chung ta cd the mpt mat huy ddng dffdc cdc nguin ngoai td manh vd tao nguin ngoai td san ed, da dang hda loai hinh ngoai td dff trff, mat khae cd thi phan tdn
dffdc rui ro khi cd bid'n ddng ty gia tidn the gidi.
Tuy nhidn, dl gidm thiiu tac dOng tidu cffc cua vide phdt hdnh TPCP bing ding ngoai td, ddc biet Id tde dpng cua flnh trang do la hod, trffdc hit Chinh phii cln tap tiling dl phdt trien vd hodn thidn cdc cdng cu phdng ngffa rui ro, cu thi:
• c l n xay dffng mOt thi trffdng ngoai hd'i giao djch tffdng lai cd dp sdu vd thanh khodn cao.
• c l n xay dffng vd phdt triin tiij trffdng chffng khoan phdi sinh de phdng ngffa rui ro.
• c l n qudn ly sdt sao sff mat can doi ciia thj trffdng tiin td, gidm thiiu cdc tidu cffc tiong trffdng hdp ding Viet nam bi mat gid manh.
• Tdng cffdng dff trff bing ding ngoai td. Mpt khi chung ta cd nguin dff trff ngoai td du ldn (Vi du, trffdng hdp ciia Trung Qud'c, Hing Kong, Nga,...) chung ta cd thi kiim soat dffdc bien ddng cua ty gid vd cd till ffng phd dffdc dd'i vdi rui ro ty gid cung nhff tinh trang do la hod.l
T A I L I E U T H A M KHAO:
7. Website cua NgAn hkng nha nudc, http://www.sbv.gov. vn/
2. Website cua Bg Tai chinh, http://www.btc/nnofwebinfo/
3. Website cua UBCKNN, http://www. ssc.gov. vn/
4. Website cua Sd GDCK Hh Ndi, www.hastc.org.vn/
5. Bkn th^m ve vi$c phat hknh trai phi$u ngOfii t$ trong nildc, TS. NguySn Dai Lai, http://thongtinphapluatdansu.
wordpress. com/20 7 0/04/20/4860/
6. Venezuela to Sell $3 Billion in Dollar- Denominated Bonds,
http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSLPUB:
SB! 25414560675846299.html
7. Government bonds in domestic and foreign currency: The role od institutional and macroeconomic factors,
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC /Resources/SchmuklerRIE.pdf
8. Venezuela's central bank to sell foreign dollar-denominated bonds on local marlcet, httpy/www.wash ingtonexaminer.com /economy/99511169.html
9. Cac bai bao co li&n quan fiy cac trang Web cua Vneconomy, Vnexpress, eFinanee,...
10. Cac y ki^n cua cac chuy§n gia ni/dc ngoai tCtANZ, AFDC va ADB.
QUAN L t NGAN QUY QUdC GIA I S6 107 I 5/2011
