NGHIlN cdu-TRAO Ddi
• ThS. LE CONG HOI
TCT Tai c h i n h CP D i u k h i Viet Nam {PVFC)
ThS. LE MAI TRANG
Trtfdng Dai h o c Thtfdng m a i
ThvTc t r a n g XK c u a V i e t Nam trong t h d i g i a n qua
Trdng t h a p ky vUa qua, d a e biet la k h i Viet N a m gia n h a p WTO, XK c u a Viet N a m d a d a t dUde n h i d u t h a n h t i c h d a n g khich Id, d d n g g d p k h d n g n h d vao GDP c u a Viet N a m , g d p phdn t h u e d a y t a n g trUdng k i n h te va t a o vide ldm c h e lad d d n g Viet Nam. Kim n g a e h XK lidn tud lang, vUdt 5 0 ty USD tU n a m 2008 vd d a t k d t q u a a n tUdng 71,63 ty USD v a o n a m 2 0 1 0 . Tuy nhidn tdc dp t a n g trUdng XK chUa dn d i n h , n a m 2 0 0 1 tdc dp tang t r u d n g chi d a t 3 . 8 % , n a m 2002 d a t 11.2%, n a m 2 0 0 4 d a t tdc dp t a n g trUdng cao n h d t la 31.4%, nhUng n a m 2 0 0 9 la - 8.9%. (Bdng 1)
Cd c a u t h i t n i d n g XK eua Viet N a m t r e n g giai d d a n vUa q u a dUde t r d i d d u r a t d t cd cdc c h a u luc, nhUng ty t r p n g giUa c d c c h a u l u c k h d e n h a u rd r e t (Bang 2).
Thi trUdng XK t a p t r u n g chu ye'u d k h u vUc c h a u A, kd' de'n Id c h a u Au, c h a u My, D a i
DUdng vd cudi c u n g Id c h a u Phi t i n h t r u n g b i n h cho cd giai d o a n (Hinh 1)
BSng 2: Co ca'u tti| trudng XK cua VMl Nam (ty trong %)
Nam
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ty trong binh quSn
ChSu A Chdu Au ChSu My 57,3
52.0 48,8 49.4 50.0 42,8
23,4 8,S 21,8 16.6 21,5 21,5 20,4 21,3 18,6 21,2 19,2 25,1 43.8 19,8 24,3 47,1 18,2 21,9 48,5
50.3
49,0
18,0 19,7 16,7 19,4
19,8 20,0 Chau Phi
12 0,8 1.0 1,6 2.0 3,7 3,8 5,1 5,6 6,3 3,1
Chau Oai Duong 1
7,1 8,2
_J2
7.0 8,1 8,9 8,3 7,7 8.2 7.3 7.8 Nguon • Ting cue Thdng ke. B6 Cong Ihuong.
Thdi bao Kinh tiV\€t Nam
Hinh 1 ; Ty t r p n g b i n h quan (2001-2010) Chju A • Chju Au Chju My • Chju Phi •> Chau D?i Duong
, B4ng 1: Kim ngach XK eiia Vl$f Nam (2001-2010)
L
• 1 ^ XK (t^USD) 2001 15,03 2002 16,71 2003 20,15 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
26,49 32,45 39,83 48,56 62,69 57,10 71,63
T& ao tang (%) 3,8 11,2 20,6 31,5 22,5 22,7 21,9 29,1
•8,9 25,4
XKiGDP(%) 46,0 47,6 50,9 58,0 61,3 65,5 68,4 70,0 62,4 68,5
Nguin: TSng cifc Thing ki: Bo Cdng Ihuong: 1 Thai bao Kinh Id Viet Nam. 1
C h a u A Id t h i t r u d n g r d n g ldn cd dieu k i e n thUdng m a i t h u a n ldi ddi vdi h a n g h d a XK c u a Viet N a m . T u y
n h i d n . ty t r p n g XK t r d n g thi trUdng d h a u A k h d n g d d n g ddu n h a u , chu ydu t a p t r u n g vdd thi trUdng ASEAN, N h a t B d n , T r u n g Qud'c, H a n Qudc.
C h a u Au la thi trUdng cd n h i e u tidm n a n g . cd n h u cdu NK n h i d u h d n g h d a c u a Viet Nam. Mac du n a m 2 0 0 9 EU d a g i a n h cho Viet Nam t h u e q u a n Uu d a i GSP nhUng thi
tnfdng c h a u Au ndi c h u n g va EU ndi rieng cd cdc quy dinh NK r a t k h d t k h e , n h a t la c a c quy dinh vd h a n g rdo ky t h u a t va chd'ng b d n phd gia. Trdng cac nUde EU, h a n g h d a c u a Viet Nam chu ye'u XK v a e thi trUdng DUc, Anh, Hd Lan, P h a p , Y va Bi.
C h a u My dupe t a p trung chu ye'u vde thi trUdng Hda Ky, n a m 2 0 0 1 Viet Nam ky h i e p d i n h Viet Nam - Hea Ky da tad dieu k i e n t h u a n ldi chd h a n g h d a XK cua Viet Nam vdo thi trUdng ndy. NhUng thi trUdng Hoa Ky r d t khd t i n h , cdc quy dinh ve h a n g r a e ky t h u a t dad, phUe t a p vd h d n g NK de bi kien b d n p h d gid vd trd c a p .
Thi tnfdng c h a u Phi va C h a u Dai DUdng. d a c biet la thi
t y tnfdng c h a u Phi cd d a c
THUONGMAISo 12/2011 1 2 1
NGHIlN CDU-TRAO DOI
c y diem nhu cdu kha phu hdp vdi cdc hang hda XK cua Viet Nam. nhUng kim ngach XK vao thi trUdng ndy chiem ty trpng thap.
Ccr cau m&t hang XK cua
Viet Nam trdng giai ddan quacung cd nhUng thay ddi dang ghi n h a n vd theo hUdng phdt trien cua cae nUde tren thd' gidi Id day manh XK ddc hdng cdng nghidp cd h a m lUdng dhd' bie'n sau dd' gia tang ldi nhuan, h a n ehd' XK nhien lieu vd khedng sdn (Jonathan Pincus (2009)). ThUc te' cho tha'y, ty treng XK eua nhdm h a n g nhien lieu vd khddng sdn Id 25% n a m 2001 den nam 2009 vd 2010 da gidm cdn 17,8% vd 11,1%. Ty trpng XK hdng cdng nghiep che bien dat 45,6% n a m 2001 dd tang ten hdn 60% tU n a m 2007.
(Hinh 2)
B3ng3:M6tsonnathangXKchuyiru m
1
M#t hang Gao Ca phe Cao su Thuysan Det may Giay dep Dien tii va linh kien
Dauth6 Than da
Nguon: Tong
Ddn v] tfnh Nghin tan Nghin tan Nghin tan Tneu USD Tneu USD Tneu USD
Tneu USD Nghin tS'n Nghin tan
2005 5 255 913 554 2,733 4,772 3,039
1,472 17,967 17.988
2006 4642 981 704 3,358 5855 3596
1,808 16,422 29,308
2007 4558 1,232 716 3,763 7 750 3,994
2165 15,062 32,100
2008 4 742 1,061 659 4.509 9.123 4.768
2640 13 800 19,400
2009 5 958 1.184 731 4251 9,066 4067
2 753 13,373 24992
2olW
6 828 1,173 783 4,952 11,172 5079
3 558 7 982 19231
cue Thong ke; Bo Cong thuang; Thdi bao Kinh te Viet Nann
lao ddng nhU det may. Nhdm h a n g ndng sdn. thuy sdn chu ye'u la xudt thd, ehUa qua sd che hdae mdi sd ehd' (dd de'n 90%
ndng sdn XK dUdc bdn ra dUdi dang the vd 60% sdn pham bi
Hinh 2: Ccf cau hang XK (%)
• Nong san, Thuy san •Cong nghiep che bien « Nhien lieu, khoang san 25.0 24.5 24 2 22.0 23.0 20.6 19.5 18.7 17.8 ^
lllllllll
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nhdm hdng cdng nghiep che'
bie'n chidm da sd cdc mat hdng XK chu lUc cua Viet Nam bao gdm det may. giay dep. sdn pham gd. dien tU.... Nhdm hdng ndy chii yeu Id Viet Nam gia cdng XK ndn mac du chie'm ty treng ldn nhUng gid tri thu vd chUa cae. Nhieu mat hdng treng nhdm hang ndy sU dung nhidu
2 2 1 THUONfi MAI So 12/2011
ban dp vdi gid thdp) (Jonathan Pincus (2009)). Kha n a n g tang che' bie'n, gid tri gia tang cua ndng sdn dien ra khd cham.
Cdc m a t h a n g chu ye'u treng nhdm ndy Id: gad. rau qud, hat dieu, hat tidu, cae su, che, cd phd,,. Nhdm n h i e n lieu vd khodng sdn t a p trung ehu ye'u vao ede mat hdng nhU than dd.
ddu thd, quang vd mdt sd khddng sdn khdc,
Nhtifng van d l con tdn tai trong hoat dong XK
Mac du dd gat hai nhieu thdnh cdng trdng ede nam gan day, nhUng cdc nhd XK eua Viet Nam dang phdi ddi mat vdi nhUng tdn tai vd thdch thUc ldn.
Didu dd dUde phdn tich qua md hinh SWOT (trang ben):
- Chd't Idgng thdp vd sdn
phdm khdng da dgng: Met trdngsd nhUng cdn trd chinh ddi vdi sU tang trudng XK d mdt sd loai ndng s a n dd Id nhUng sdn p h a m nay dUde XK d dang thd hoac chi dUdc sd dhe. Vide XK nhu vay vd hinh chung han che khd nang tang gid tri gia tang vd sU da dang cua sdn phdm.
Khi sU canh tranh vd nhUng yeu
cdu vd giam gid thdnh san
p h a m ngdy cdng manh me thi
van dd ve sdn pham chdt lUdng
thap chinh la dieu vUdng mdc d
mdt so khu vUc sdn xuat. ddc
biet la dd'i vdi sdn pham cdng
nghiep. Chat lUdng thdp vd sdn
pham ddn dieu khdng chi lien
NGHIEN CI)U-TRAO OOl
D i e m m a n h (Strengths)
On d i n h chinli tri va xa lioi Vi tri d i a ly t h u a n ldi, ndm trong k h u vitc n a n g dong
Cac n h a n to c h o s a n x u a t r a t p h o n g p h u ( n h a n cong, nong n g h i e p , l a m n g h i e p va ngu n g h i e p )
Chi p h i n h a n cong Itha r e LUc lUdng lao d o n g co k y luat
Di^m y e u (Weaknesses)
Nang s u d t thdj)
San p h a m c h a t lUdng t h a p Cong n g h e s a n x u a t lac h a u Gia tri gia t a n g trong s a n x u a t it do h a n c h e ve n g u o n n g u y e n l i e u t h o va n g u y e n p h u lieu
Cd sd h a t a n g Idiong tifdng xiing :
Chi p h i van c h u y e n noi dia cao so vdi cac niidc k h a c trong k h u viic
H a n c h e ve bi q u y e t trong t h i e t k e va m a r k e t i n g
Cd h^i (Opportimities) Thdch thdc (Threats)
Gia n h a p WTO
Hoi n h a p k h u vUc (clang chu y la H i e p d i n h K h u vvfc Tu do Thu'dng m a i A S E A N - AFTA) va cac h i e p d i n h thitdng m a i song p h i t d n g trong tUdng lai.
Da d a n g ve tlii trifdng va san p h a m .
Chuyen giao cong n g h e do dau t u trUc t i e p nvtdc ngoai.
Cai t i e n c h a t lifdng s a n pham va cd sd h a t a n g
Siifc c a n h t r a n h t a n g ca d t h i tnfdng noi d i a va qudc t e do g i a m b d t b a o ho cho cac n g a n h trong nifdc.
K h d n g cdn rdo can vc t h u c q u a n
quan d d n k h i a d a n h k y t h u d l san x u d t (nhU sU lad h a u vd cong n g h e ) m a c d n la sU ye'u kem vd phUdng thUc q u d n ly, thiet kd vd m a r k e t i n g .
- Gid (n gia tdng han che do phu t h u d c l d n v d o NK n g u y e n lieu thd vd n g u y d n lieu t r u n g gian. C) m d t s d linh vUe. s d n pham dUdc XK dUdi d a n g dd dUdc c h e bie'n nhifng p h d i NK
n g u y e n lidu t h d vd c a c n g u y d n lieu t r u n g gian. NhU vay, d e t h u e NK dad vd chi p h i v a n c h u y e n ldn d d n tdi gia t h d n h s d n p h a m t a n g va n g u d n c u n g c a p h d n g k h d n g dUde d d m b d o d n d i n h . Cdc loai s d n p h a m XK chu ye'u c u a Viet Nam nhU q u d n d o vd gidy d d p ddu p h u t h u d c ldn vdo NK n g u y e n lieu, gid tri gia t a n g tha']). Hien t a i , Vidt Nam chii
ye'u vdn h e a t d d n g vdi vai trd la m d t n h a t h d u p h u . k h d n g cd nhUng md'i lidn h e trUe tidp vdi thi trUdng.
- Ca sd hg tdng khong tdOng xdng: C d c h e thd'ng cd sd h a t d n g hd trd k h d c nhU k h o bai vd giU l a n h k h d n g d d p Ung d u p e yeu cdu c u a h a n g n d n g s d n . Vi du n h u ddi vdi g a o , nhUng t h a i t h o a t sau khi thu h d a c h r a t ldn, chie'm k h o d n g 10 - 1 2 % vii m u a m d chu ye'u la do cdng n g h e thu h e a e h l a c h d u . phUdng tien v a n c h u y e n thd sd va cd sd h a l d n g cu ky.
- Gid cd khong canh Ircinlv. d m e t s d k h u vUc s a n xudt. h d n g XK c u a Viet Nam cdn n h i e u m a t h a n c h e do gid t h a n h s d n xudt cao m a c du chi p h i n h a n c d n g re. C h d n g h a n nhU s d n p h a m giay d e p . chi phi n h a n c d n g t h a p nhUng chi phi s a n xudt lai cao do p h d i NK c d c hod c h a t , m a y m d c va p h u kien. Treng khi t r e n thd' gidi cd chi phi n h a n cdng vd n a n g sudt cd xu hUdng giam di thi chi phi cho lao d d n g cd tay nghd cao d m d t so k h u vUc s d n xua't lai cao hdn so vdi cdc nUdc k h d c d khu vUe.
- Kien thdc thi trUdng niidc ngodi vd linh hinh LhMiig mui qudc le cdn han che. T h d n g tin ve thi t r u d n g qud'c te' cd vai trd r a t quan t r e n g dd'i vdi nhUng DN m d n g m u d n XK trUc tie'p s a n g cdc thi trUdng q u a n t r p n g nhU Hea Ky vd Lien m i n h C h a u Au.
Tuy n h i e n . n h i d u n h d XK v a n r a t edn r d t h a n c h e vc kidn thUc thi trUdng nUdc ngodi va v a n edn phdi qua k h a u trung gian d rat n h i e u n g d n h h d n g .
(Cdn nUa)
THUONGMAISo 1?/?011 I ?3
