NGHltNCOU-TRAOOOl
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Bi
ao cdo thddng nien .kinh td Viet Nam 2011 'vdi chu dd "Ndn kinh te trddc ngd b a dvfdng" da de cap d e n van dd "tham hut kep"vdi nhdng lo ngai vd rui ro ma hien tdpng kinh te nay cd the gay r a cho n d n kinh te trong thdi ky ddy bidn dpng hien nay.
Tham hut kep dvfpc hidu la hien tddng t h a m hut thdOng mai dl lidn vdi tham hut ngan sdch. Tai sao lai xdy ra hien tdpng tham hut kep nay?
Lf g i i i h i # n tu<rng thdm hi^t k£p
Quicti
Hinh 1: Ddng chdy tdi chinh trong n I n kinh t€ md
De ly gidi hlpn tdpng t h a m hvt kep, ta xem xet so dd ddng chdy tdi chinh cua mpt ndn kinh td. Ndn kinh td bao gdm cdc thdnh phdn: hp gia dinh, cdc td chdc tdl chinh. DN. Chinh phu vd phdn qudc td. Svf van dpng cda tidn tp tuan theo sO dd tren (ngdpc vdi svf v$n dpng cda hdng hod. dich vv). Hp gia dinh dung khodn tidn C mua hdng hda.
djch vp cda DN; va tidt ki$m mpt khodn SH gdl vdo cdc td chdc tai
chinh. DN trd IdOng cho hp gia dinh khodn thu n h a p Ic. gdi tidt kiem vao cdc td chdc tdl chinh khodn SB. vd npp thue T cho Chinh phu. Chinh phu cung gdi mpt khodn Uet kiem SG vdo cdc td chdc tdi chinh. vd trp cap mpt khodn Tr cho ddn cd. Cdc td chdc tdi chinh cho vay tidn de tdi trp cho cdc DN khodn ddu td I. DN XK hdng hda, dich vy, thu ddpc khodn thu nhdp td XK EX.
DN NK hdng hda, djch vy se
Anh minh hga
phdi trd cho thl trddng qudc te khodn tdi chinh IM. Cdc Chinh phu vd td chdc qudc te cd thd dda tidn vdo trong ndn kinh td, dai dien Id gdi SF vdo cdc td chdc tai chinh. Ludng tidn tift kiem nvfdc ngoai ddpc xem nhd la de bd ddp cho t h a m hyt thdOng mai. tdc la SF = IM - EX.
Tidn chdy vao khu vvfc tdi chinh rdi quay lal dd ddu td cho ndn kinh te. the hipn bdng cdng thdc: I = SH + SB + SG + SF.
Mat khde: SG = T - Tr - G. SF = IM - EX, cdn tiet kiem td n h a n SP = SH + SB. Kdt hpp cac cdng thdc tren, ta cd mpt ddng thdc the hien mdi quan he gida tham hut ngan sach va t h a m hpt thddng mai:
(SP - I) + (IM - EX) = (G + Tr - T).
Khi (IM - EM) > 0 thi
tham hut thddng mai xdy ' ^ TINMIIflS6 21/2011 121
NSHItN 000-TRAO DOl
C^ ra, cdn ndu (G + Tr - T^ > 0 thi ngan sdch Nhd nddc bi thdm hut. Bidu thdc t r e n dd chdng minh ddpc mdi lien he gida hai loai t h a m h u t nay. Vd c h e n h lech gida t h d m h u t n g a n sdch Nhd nddc vd thdm h u t thdOng bai b a n g c h e n h lech gida tidt kiem td n h a n vd dau td (SP - I).
Tuy nhien, n g a n sdch va cdn can vang lai khdng phdi luc nao cung cd cdng xu hddng tich cvfc hodc tieu cdc. IQii hai loai tdi khodn ndy cdng t h a m hut chinh Id luc n d n kinh te gap hien tdpng t h a m hut k e p . Tren thd gidi, nhidu qudc gia da tdng rOi vao tinh trang nay, dddi day la vi du vd mpt sd nddc cdng nghiep Idn n h a t the gidi:
sdch trong ddi h a n . Chinh phd da cd nhdng chd trddng cdt gidm ddu td cdng vd chi phi thddng xuyen cua cdc cO quan sd dung ngan sdch Nhd nddc, kiem sodt chat che ddu td cua cac DNNN.
cd gang gidm ty le t h d m h u t ngdn sdch. Mac du vay. day Id mpt chu trddng mang tinh ngdn b a n vd Ididng dd thvfc hien.
Ldpng ngdn sdch cd thd cat gidm theo chinh sdch ndy chda the bd dap ddpc nhieu trong tdng sd bdi chi ngdn sdch. vd do dd cung ddng gdp mpt phdn khdng nhidu trong van de gidm t h a m h u t thddng mai. Gidi phdp ndng cao hieu qud hoat dpng thu thud cho ngdn sdch mang tinh ddi b a n vd b d n vdng hdn. Tuy nhien. idm
Bang 1: Can c a n t a i c h i n h v& c d n c&n v a n g lai t a i m^t s£f niTdc c d n g n g h i e p (Dctn vi: % GDP)
Qudc gia C' WrnKM^iSSsKSSS^'
My
N h a t B ^ f " " *
Ddc
FMv
Anh
f
Canada
1990 - 2000 in cSu tai Cdu
chinh « •
5 0
-9.3 "^
f 8
-0,7 „,.
5.0 7.2 6.7
can vang
-2.9
-4.(1
2.1 . ,
1.4 0.9 6.1
2000- C<1n can t4i
chiuiiii|H -6.0
jiiuiinpiiiiWPH^^^Bn^H
-5 4
...-J'S'III
-7.3
•s--* 'IH
-3.3
- 200.';
Cau can vaag
-2.2
5.7
0.7
-1.0 (Nguon: To chdc hop tdc Kinh ti vd Phdt triin OECD)
Trong b d n g tren, n h d n g cdp sd lieu ddpc in d a m the h i e n xu hddng cung chieu cua hai loai tdi khodn.
Thdm hvit ngdn sdch vd tham hilt thtiUng mai tai Vi$t Nam
Theo cdng b d chinh thdc, thdm h u t n g a n sdch cua Viet Nam n a m 2010 Id 5,6% GDP vd dvf todn n a m 2011 la 5,3% GDP.
Dd gidm ddpc t h a m h u t ngdn sdch, cd the gidm chi tieu trong ngdn b a n hoac t a n g thu n g a n
221 THIMG Nil 86 21/2011
the ndo de ndng cao hieu qud boat dpng thu thud lai khdng hd ddn gidn, bdi le, tdng thud suat chda chdc dd Idm tdng doanh thu thud.
Trong mpt vai ndm trd lai ddy, Viet Nam da tidp n h a n mpt ldpng vdn r a t Idn td b e n ngoai. Ddng thdi, de dat ddpc muc tieu tang trddng cao. Chinh phu da khdng ngdng day m a n h ddu td. Nhvfng hieu qud ddu td cua Viet Nam chda cao thd hien qua he sd ICOR
cao hOn ddng ke so vdi cac nddc trong khu vvfc. He qud thu ddpc Id tham hut ngan sdch vd thdm hut thdOng mai cung dat mdc cao.
Ndm 2010. n h d p sieu hdng hda cua nddc ta la 12,4 t^ USD.
bdng 17,3% tdng kim ngach h a n g h d a XK. T^nh d e n hdt 5 thdng dau n a m 2010, nhdp sieu dd ddt 6.6 ty^ USD, bang 19%
tdng kim ngach h a n g hda XK.
Ldpng ngoai te bd dap cho n h a p sieu cda Viet Nam hien nay p h d n nhidu ddpc huy dpng td kidu hdi, vd vdn ddu td nddc ngoai. Thdm h y t thdOng mai tang cao, dvf trd ngoai hdi thap, cung vdi dp Ivfc vd lam phdt cd t h e gdy r a khdng hodng thanh todn cho n d n kinh td.
Dd gidi quydt tinh trang tham hut thdOng mai keo ddi, mpt bien phdp ddpc nhdc d^n nhidu nhat id day m a n h XK, kidm sodt chat che NK. b a n chd nhdp sieu. dan dan tien ddn xuat sieu. Tuy nhien. ddy Id mpt gidl phdp kha Idn vd khd a p dung ddpc mpt each cu the. Nhat Id khi nhu cdu NK hang Viet Nam cda cdc nddc khde cd tdng len nhvfng chda dudi kip svf gia tdng nhu cdu NK cda ndn kinh te nddc ta. Do dd. trong ngdn ban. can cd cdc bien phdp rd rdng vd hieu qud hdn nda.
Hien nay, Viet Nam dd dp dung cdc bien p h a p tdng ldi sudt hay t h a t chat tin dung, cdt gidm chi tieu cdng, kidm sodt cdc boat dpng ddu td cua DNNN. Ben canh dd, cdc bipn phdp nhdm bu ddp cho khodn thdm hut cdn cdn vdng lai cung ddpc tich cvfc dp dung, n h d tdng cddng thu hut ODA, FDI cd chdt ldpng. D^c biet, chinh sdch tidn te thdt ch^t vd phd gid ddng VND ddpc xem la cdc bien phdp cdng rdn nhdm ddi phd vdi tinh hinh phdc t^p cda ndn kinh td Viet Nam •
