• .* «S(3M!S! jS'/'B-<MSPU^f«»? « ^ ) ^ ^ K H 1
>:'. Nghidn ciJu & Trao ddi
NGHIEN CU'U TINH
T O A N C A N B A N GNU'D'C VUNG
P H A NHA LU'U SONG
M A T H U O C D!A P H A NTHANH HOA
BANG MO
H I N H M I T S I M V AMIKE- BASIN
TS. Hoang Ngoc Quang
Trudng Cao dang Tdi nguyen vd Mdi trudng Hd Ndi
T
fbng nhung nam gin day mot sd khu vuc tren phin luu luu sdng Ma thudc dia phan Thanh Hod da cd dau hieu thiiu nude Nhung tinh trang thiiu nude dang a mire dd nao va trong pham vi nao la mot vin di ein xem xet danh gia cu thi.Cd nhiiu phuang phdp xem xet va danh gid, nhung phuang phdp su dung cac md hinh tinh can bang nude di xem xet mire do thiiu nude tren toan he thing sdng la phuang phap ed nhiiu uu thi da duac ghi nhan.
Trong cac md hinh da dugc nghien ciru dp dung, md hinh MITSIM vd md hinh MIKE- BASIN la nhung mo hinh rit phii hap cho bai toan can bdng nudeva dang duac su dung a nude ta.
Dii vdi luu vuc sdng Ma, kit qua dp dung md hinh MITSIM va md hinh MIKE- BASIN di tinh toan can bdng nude da eho thiy: tuy nude sdng Ma cdn tuang ddi ddi dao nhung do phdn bd khdng diu theo khdng gian va thdi gian nen da cd mot sd vung thiiu nude trong cac thang III va IV, nhit la viing Nam sdng Chu (72,2 trieu m3).
Kit qua tinh toan can bdng nude tren luu vuc se la cae can cie quan trong trong cdng tae quy hoach luu vue song cung nhu viee xay dung ede phuang an quan iy tdng hap tai nguyen nude tren luu vuc.
1. IVId hinh IVIITSIM va IVIIKE-BASIN
Md hinh MIKE BASIN do Vien Thuy luc Dan Mach (DHI) xdy dung t h i hien mdt luu vue sdng (gom sdng ehinh vd cdc sdng nhdnh), cac yiu t i thuy van cua luu vuc theo khdng gian vd thdi gian, cdc cdng trinh, he thing su dung nude hien tai vd tuong lai cho ede phuong dn su dung nude khdc nhau, ed t h i biiu diin ea tdi nguyen nude ngim vd qua trinh dien biin nude ngim, md phdng chit lugng nude, dac biet la viec ddnh gid ede phuong dn khai thde tdi nguyen nude trong luu vue sdng.
Md hinh MITSIM (Massachusetts Institute Tech- nology Simulation) do Vien Ky thuat Massachusetts (My) xay dung nam 1977 -1978 de nghien cuu giai doan II cua cdc sdng d Ai Cap vd Nam Tu trong
khudn kho Chuong trinh phdt triin eija Lien Hgp Quoc.
Md hinh MITSIM md phdng todn bd he thong sdng dudi dang ede nut nhu: Nut khdi d i u cua he thing hay phdn he thing (tii da cd 100 nut). Nut ddng chay nhap luu (tii da 70 nut). Nut h i chua (tdi da 35 nut). Nut tudi (khdng qua 20 nut). Nut ddng chay kiet hay nut sinh thdi (tdi da la 5 nut) Nut ehuyin nude (tii da 10 nut). Nut nude ngim (toi da 15 nut), Milt ching lu vd nut kit thuc Id nut euii eiing cua so dd hod mang sdng vd dugc dat d vj tri bien cudi cung cua he thing sdng ein md phdng.
Viee dp dung md hinh MITSIM va MIKE-BASIN d i tinh todn cdn bing nude eho luu vue diu dugc thue hien bdi ede ndi dung sau:
Ngudi phan bien TS. La Thanh Ha <
Tap chi Khi tu'gng Thuy van * Thang 1/2009
19,Nghi§n ciiTu & Trao dd'i
a. Phan vung can bang nw&c
Vung can b i n g nirac Id cdc khu tap trung nude khep kin trong dja g;di hdnh chinh de d i quan ly, theo he thing thuy Igi da cd s i n vd cd the SLP dung
nguon nude theo he thong vd vdi khai niem ndy p h i n lu'u sdng Ma thudc dja phdn Thanh Hod dugc chia thanh cac khu can b i n g nude theo hai nhdnh sdng Ma vd sdng Chu nhu bang 1.
Bang 1.: Ket qua phan vung can bang nw&c phan Iwu viec song Ma thupc Thanh Hoa
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Viing can b^ng Thirctng Song Ma Tiung Sling Ma Trung Sling Bifffi Ha song BifSi B^c son^ Ma TiuMng song Chn Liiu. vifc s6ng Am Nam song Chu ThifcJng C^u Chay Nam Chu-BJJc Ma
Nhanh song Ma
_ Biidi
_ Ma Chu Am Chu C^u Chay
Chu
T6ns
Dien lich 725,21 1117,34 485,000 230,520 760.690 1105,06 734,440 985,02 408,840
391,57 8,944,21
D a n so nflm 2005 11,565 216,667
73,918 163,048 534,891 93,538 84.748 1,118,092
166,318 366,904 2,931,689 b. So hoa hay sa do hoa mang lw&i song, phan
vung can bang nw&c, tinh Iwang nw&c den, nhu cau nw&c cho moi khu can bang va Iwang nw&c sinh thai a nut kit thuc.
- Doi vdi md hinh MIKE-BASIN viec s i hod mang lu'di sdng Id n h i m t h i hien lu'u vuc sdng, mang ludi sdng va cac nut can b i n g tren he thong
(hlnh 1)
- Ddi vdi md hinh MITSIM la viec md phdng todn bd he thong sdng dudi dang cdc niit gdm: Niit khdi d i u eua he thing hay phan he thing, Niit ddng chay nhap luu. Nut h i chua, Niit tudi, Niit ddng chay kiet hay niit sinh thdi, Niit chuyen nude. Nut nude ngim, Niit chong lu va niit k i t thiic (hinh 2).
£i'e la« Yiev^ I h e m e fin^iy^i S w l i t - Giaohcs OHI Tools imood and Tpsniioini M"^ BASIN MB I O O I J W ^ d o i " f^nd Wachns tJeto Gnd Picifcio.l
'"LllJLlgJ,^?;i4)j?B,W •'I''''-™ V:' g-^i-:-i-~l*J_L lAJAJ n icr
cm V ...
20
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X^^2 ,5 7
^V'' dlT-.
Tap Chi Khi tu'gng Thuy van * Thang 1/2009
• J . : .-•!! CC . y s n a
Hinlt 1: Giao dien cfiinfi ciia mo hinh MIKE-BASIN
Nghien cu'u & Trao doi
??:! I
iifer. 3-®
Hinh 2. Sa do hoa mang lw&i song theo mo hinh MITSIM
c. Tinh Iwang nw&c den cho moi khu can bang phuong phap tuong quan (cho cac niit cd it tdi lieu va Iwang nw&c sinh thai tai nut kit thuc
- Tinh lugng nu'dc den, Cd 11 nut can bing can tinh lugng nude d i n vdi t i n s u i t 75% theo phu'ong phap thing ke (doi vdi cdc niit cd s i lieu ddng chay nhu Cu'a Dat, C i m Thuy, Lang Chanh, ...) hoac
quan trie nhu': Kim Tan, Mudng Hinh, Vu Ban, Sdng Ding) hay phu'ong phap ty le dien tich (cho nhung niit khdng cd tai lieu nhu: Mudng Lat, Xuan Khanh, Nga Ba Bdng), khi chenh lech dien tich khdng qua Idn vd dugc cho trong bang 2.
Bang 2. Lwu Iwang (m^/s) v&i tan suit 75% tai cac nut can bang khai dau
Vitri XaLk Mirdiig Lit C^m Thuy Vu Bdn Kim Tin Nga Ba B6ng MUSng Hinh Ci\a Dat Song Dhng Lang Chdnh Xuitn Klifinli
1 39 74..')
138 11.3 20.8 181 38.1 44.9 1,37 4,42 54.3
2 36.6 69.9 126 9.5 17.4
165 30.4 38.8 1.21 3,70 46.9
3 32,6 62,27
89,2 8.4 15,4 117 26,32 31,52 1.34 3.27 38,14
4 39.9 76.2 125 9.2 16.9
1 6 4 23.7 33.3 2.24 3,61 40.2
LlTu Iticfns tha 5
57.2 109 146 15.4 28.4 191 34.1 32.1 3.97 6.05 38.9
6 160 306 367 26.1 48.1 4 8 2
57 113 5.14 10.2 137
7 202 3 8 6 4 1 3 35.4 65.1 542 58.7 144 7,63 13.9 174
iig
8 174 3 3 2 7 4 7 52.5 96.7 981 166 161 10.1 20.6 195
9 169 3 2 3 737 69,2
127 9 6 6 138 155 7.43 27,1 189
10 119 227 3 0 2 51,2 94,2 3 9 6
7 7 261 4.63 20,1 3 1 6
U 120 229 188 31.9 58.7 247 109 172 2,28 12,5 209
12 7 1 135 141 15.7 28,8 1 8 4 58 7 4 4.07 6.14 89
N a m 102 194 296 28 51,6
3 8 8 68,4
105 4.06 10.97
127
Tap chi Khi tu'gng Thuy van * Thang 1/2009 21
Nghidn cufu & Trao ddi
- Tinh lugng nude sinh thdi.
Lugng nude sinh thdi dugc liy bing lugng ddng chay thdng nhd nhit Ung vdi P= 90% [1,2]. Ddy Id lugng ddng chay can thiit dam bao cho cdn bang sinh thdi d ha luu hay dugc dung de diy man d cdc nut kit thuc. Bing phuong phdp phdn tich tin suit, luu lugng sinh thdi tinh dugc tai Cim Thuy Id 58m3/s vd tai Cu'a Dat Id 19,7 m3/s.
d. Tinh nhu eau nw&c cho eae nganh dung nw&e CO tieu hao eho eae khu can bang
Trong cdc ngdnh diing nude, ed 4 ngdnh dung nude ed tieu hao: Nude cho tudi, nude cho chan nudi, nude eho sinh hoat vd nude cho cdng nghiep.
Cd nhiiu phuong phdp tinh todn nhu ciu nude eho dan sinh, chan nudi vd trong trpt Chang han cdch tinh todn nhu ciu nude theo djnh mue su" dung
nude eua mil ngudi ddn, mdi loai cay trong, vat nudi sau diy nhdn vdi ting s i ngudi (dd thj hay ndng thdn), dien tich (ha) cdy trong hay ting sd vdt nudi d mil khu (hay tiiu khu) can bdng hay tinh djnh mUe dung nude bing md hinh todn.
- Dinh mue nude dung cho ddn sinh vd chan nudi dugc liy tU kit qua nghien eUu cua d i tdi KC-12-02 [4]: 114 l/ngdy/ngudi sing d dd thi vd 70 1/ngay/ngudi sdng d ndng thdn;: 1351/ngdy/con dai gia siie, 60 l/ngdy/eon Ign vd 111/ngdy/eon gia cim khdc. Vdi nam tinh toan dugc chpn Id 2005, tu s i lieu thing ke cua Chi cue Thong ke Thanh Hod [3] ta cd t h i tinh dugc ting s i dan dd thj hay ndng thdn vd ting ddn gia siie gia cim vd nhu ciu nude dan sinh vd chan nudi theo tUng thdng tai mdi khu can bang Id cd t h i tinh dugc.
Bang 3. Nhu cau nw&c cho dan sinh nam 2005
Khu can bang
Thvrong Song Ma Trung s6ng Ma Trung song birdi Ha song Budi B£C song Ma Thtfctag song Chu Ltfu vtfc s6ng Am
Nam song Chu Thu'eflig Cau Chky Nam Chu BSc Ma
Nhu cau 1
272.5 529.3 180.6 398.3 19.57 228.6 207.0 2466 406.3 901.2
2 254.9 498.1 168.9 372.6 1831 213.2 193.7 2306 380.1 848.0
ntf^c tilFng thang 3
272.5 529.3 180.6 398.3 19.57 228.6 207.0 2466 406.3 901.2
4 263.7 512.3 174,7 38.5.4 1895 221.1 200.3 2386 393.2 872.1
5 272.5 529.3 180.6 398.3 1957 228.6 207.0 2466 406.3 901.2
(lO'm') 6 263.7 512.3 174.7 385.4 1895 221.1 200.3 2386 393.2 872.1
7 272.5 529.3 180.6 398.3 19.57 228.6 207.0 2466 406.3 901.2
8 272.5 529.3 180,6 398.3 1957 228.6 207.0 2466 406.3 901.2
9 263.7 512.3 174.7 385.4 1895 221.1 200.3 2386 393.2 872.1
10 272.5 529.3 180.6 398.3 1957 228.6 207.0 2466 406.3 901.2
11 12 263.7 272.5 512.3 529.3 174.7 180.6 385.4 398.3 1895 19.57 221,1 228.6 200.3 207.0 2386 2466 393.2 406.3 872.1 901.2
- Djnh muc dung nude cho mdi ha cay trdng dugc liy tu kit qua nghien cuu dp dung md hinh CROPWAT (eho cay trong can) vd md hinh WDR (eho cdy liia nude) trong d i tdi Nghien cUu Quan ly tong hgp tdi nguyen vd mdi trudng luu vuc sdng Ma
[2] vd vdi dien tich gieo tring eua ede loai cdy trong sd lieu thing ke nam 2005 cua Chi cue Thong ke Thanh Hod, nhu ciu nude eho cay trdng trong mdi khu edn bang Id tinh dugc.
22 Tap chi Khi tu^gng Thuy van * Thang 1/2009
Nghien cufu & Trao doi
Bang 4. Nhu ciu nw&c eho chan nuoi nam 2005
Khu c6ng nghifip
Thu'ong song Ma Trung song Ma ThUdng song Btfdi Ha song B\idi Bac song Ma Thufdng song Chu Luu vut song #m Nam song Chu ThiTdng Cau Chay Bac Chu - Nam Ma
Nhu cau nufdc tifng t h a n g (lO^m^
1 249.9 482.8 799.8 308.6 723.8 288.4 229.9 1007 235.9 804.7
2 557.5 436.0 722.4 278.7 653.8 250.8 207.7 907.1 213.1 726.8
3 249.9 482.8 799.8 308.6 723.8 288.4 229.9 1007 235.9 804.7
4 285.9 467.2 794.7 298.7 700.5 267.8 222.6 972.3 228.3 778.8
5 249.9 482.8 799.8 308.6 723.8 288.4 229.9 1007 235.9 804.7
6 285.9 467.2 794.7 298.7 700.5 267.8 222.6 972.3 228.3 778.8
7 249.9 482.8 799.8 308.6 723.8 288.4 229.9 1007 235.9 804.7
8 285.9 467.2 794.7 298.7 700.5 267.8 222.6 972.3 228.3 778.8
9 249.9 482.8 799.8 308.6 723.8 288.4 229.9 1007 235.9 804.7
10 285.9 467.2 794.7 298.7 700.5 267.8 222.6 972.3 228.3 778.8
11 249.9 482.8 799.8 308.6 723.8 288.4 229.9 1007 235.9 804.7
12 285.9 467.2 794.7 298.7 700.5 267.8 222.6 972.3 228.3 778.8 Bang 5. Nhu cau nw&c tw&i nam 2005
Khu can bang
TWflniT.'^nnprMa Tnincf snnof M a TniTKT snnff hii'i^i Ha "tnn <T ^^Y^^\
R a c annff M a TVnfrtna s n n o Chu T ifn virr, snTiff A m N a m snn«T P h n Thii-rtnar-an T h S v N a m r i i i i - R a r M a
Nhu c^u ntfdc tufng thang (lO^m^)
1 204.8 582.2 726.8 7184 28467
3751 2904 5316 5437 35776
7 241 717 527 888 35194
4634 3587 6574 67191 44219
^ 276 789 580 9789 38818
5111 3957 7252 74108 48784
4 209 602 445 7507 29762
3924 3042 5562 56834 37438
S 0 0 0 0 0 83 91 0 3 32
a
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 127 187 930 1047 40168
5954 2604 10835 78948 59286
R 166 245 121 1363 52426 7770
3398 1414 10300 77371
Q
138 492 393 442 16954
2513 1099 4573 33322 25020
1 4 0 0 71 28 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 431 716 400 15.6 84.9 105 10.8 1.79 37.9 74.1
1?
576 972 559 23.6 38.4 21.3 2.06 51.9 105.
100 Bang 6. Nhu ciu nw&c eho cong nghiep va djch vu nam 2005 (Nguon: Sa Nong nghiep Phat trien
Nong than Thanh Hoa)
T l 1 2 3 5 5
Khu cfln bang ThtfcJng Sung Mo
Trung sung Mo Trung sung hvCdi
Ha sung Birdi B^c .sung M6
Nhu c^u nif<Jc (mV.s) 0.06
0.10 0.02 0.01 0.35
TT 6 7 8 9 10
Khu cfin b a n g ThtfcJng sung Chu Lifu v u t sung #m Nam sung Chu Thtfdng Cau Ch#y Nam Chu-Bic M6
Nhu c^u nif^Jc (mV.s) 0.10
0.15 0.53 0.15 0.25
Tap Chi Khi tu'dng Thuy van * Thang 1/2009 23
Nghidn cufu & Trao doi
e. Tinh toan can bang nw&c md hlnh MITSIM vd MIKEBASIN. Kit qua tinh todn Co,, uhi ^A nh,, r.i.,, n,uA.^ N.^nr, n,.A.^ rtAn ^ho thiy ndm 2005 trBH luu vuc cd cdc khu: Nam Sau khi cd nhu cau nuoc, lugng nude den, '
, X • L.1U-' .»" -! u - , •• - sdnq Chu, Luu vue sdnq Am vd Bdc sdnq Md la lugng nude sinh thai, so do so hoa mang luoi song ^ ' oui.y ^m vo DCI. =. y ta se tinh dugc cdn bdng nude ndm 2005 bing cdc thiiu nude trong thdng 3 vd IV (bang 7).
Bang 7. Ket qua tinh toan can bang nw&e ha Iwu song Ma thupc Thanh Hoa
Vung thi^u nifdc
Nam song Chu Bac sdng Ma LV song Am
Lifdng nifo'c thie'u theo cdc thang (10'*m^) Tinh theo MITSIM
3 28,5 3,24 0,8
4 35,1
0 0,5
TO'ng 63,6 3,24 1,3
Tfnh theo MIKE-BASIM 3
30,9 4.23 1,0
4 41,3
0,9
TO'ng 72,2 4,23 1,9
Chfinh 16ch
(%) 13,9 30,5 46,1
3. Nhan xet
a. Ve nhu cau nw&c
- Ndng nghiep Id ngdnh ein nude nhiiu nhit, chiem tdi 70% ting nhu ciu nude tren luu vuc.
Ngdnh diing nude it nhit Id ngdnh chdn nudi vd ehi chiim khoang 7% va edn cdc nganh khdc chi cin ed tu 9-10%md thdi,
- Trong cdc vung can bing: sdng Chu Id viing
ein nhieu nude nhit: chiim tdi 30% tong lugng nude dung, Ddy Id vung tring liia trgng diim Idn nhit va cd hai khu cdng nghiep dd thj Idn nhit (KCN Lam Son vd Tp, Thanh Hod).
- So vdi ting lugng nude sdng (17,2 ti m^), nhu ciu nude chua Idn lim, chi chiim khoang 10,47%
nhung setang len 13,1% vdo nam 2010 setang len 22,5% vdo nam 2020.
Bang 8. Nhu cau nw&c (103m^) nam 2005 va diJ' bao den 2020
Nha dung nvldc
Dan sinh Chan nuoi Cong nghiSp Trong trot Tong
Nam 2005 Nhu cau
158,649 124,100 180,990 1.376,272
1.840,01
T y l e ( % ) 9 7 10 75 100
Nam 2010 Nhu cau
257,339 217,476 419,938 1.360,12 2.254,91
T y l e ( % ) 11 10 19 60 100
Nam 2020 Nhu cau
314,339 338,854 473,545 1.360,12 2.468,86
Ty le (%) 13 14 19 55 100
24
Tap Chi Khi tu'gng Thuy van * Thang 1/2009
Nghien cufu & Trao doi
b. Ve can bang nw&c
- Cdn bdng nude tinh theo md hlnh MITSIM vd MIKE-BASIN deu cho thiy cd 3 khu cdn bing: Nam sdng Chu, Luu vuc sdng Am vd Bdc sdng Md thieu trong ede thang III vd IV. Trong dd, Khu Nam sdng Chu thiiu trim trpng nhit
- Mheo md hlnh MIKE-BASIN eho kit qua tinh todn lugng nude thiiu (78,33 106m3) theo md hlnh MITSIM tu 13,9-46,1% va viee tInh todn cung phuc tap hon,
- Kit qua tinh todn dd cQng cho phep ta suy ra ring: diu hieu thiiu nude se tang len khi nhu ciu nude tang len, nhat Id doi vdi thdi ky HDH vd CNH da diin ra hien nay.
c. NhCrng han che:
- 0 vung thugng luu, cac thdng tin, tai lieu ve tu nhien vd kinh te xa hdi rit thieu, nhit Id vung lanh tho nude Cdng hod Ddn chu Nhan ddn Ldo, nen bdi todn can bing nu'dc mdi chi thuc hien d phin luu vuc sdng Ma thupc dja phan Thanh Hod.
- Viec SLP dung tdi lieu eua tram Thuy van Vu Ban (thudc Hod Binh khdng xa bien gidi Thanh Hod) lam ddu vdo cho vung can bing Trung sdng Budi cung cd sai so nhit djnh nhung lai ed thudn Igi khdc la da igi dung dugc mot so tai lieu thuc do tai day nen do tin cay cao hon khi phai tinh chuyen theo phuong phdp dien tich.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Chi cue Thong Ke Thanh Hod: So lieu thing ke kinh ti xa hpi nam 2005.
2. Hoang Ngoc Quang: Can bang nude luu vue sdng Ma ed xet tdi luang nude bd sung cua hi ehiea Cira dat vd Thde Quyt, Ha Npi -2002.
3. Hodng Ngoc Quang: Nghien ciru qudn ly tdng hap tdi nguyen vd mdi trudng nude luu vuc sdng Ma, Hd Ndi-2009.
;ci;
