Pit bao trijt luang va cacdu...
DLT B A O TRCT L U O N G VA CO CAU VON DAU TU^- NGHIEN CUU TAI THANH PHO HO CHI MINH
Nguyen Thi Loan', Le Thi Tuyet Hoa", Nguyen Vi^t Hong Anh*""
TOM T A T
Von Id yeu td khong the khong de cap den khi nghien cuu sir phdt trien cua dia phuang. Bdi viet sic dung phuang phdp thong ke, so sdnh cdc so lieu ve von dau tu tgi Thdnh pho Ho Chi Minh trong giai doan 2005-2018. Dua tren cdc dir lieu thong ke, nhom tdc gid dd nghien cuu thirc trgng vdn ddu tu tgi Thdnh pho Ho Chi Minh qua 4 kinh: (1) Von ddu tu true tiep nuac ngodi (FDI); (2) Vdn ddu tu tu doanh nghiep ngodi nhd nuac; (3) Vdn ddu tu tir ho gia dinh; (4) Vdn ddu tu khu vw'c nhd nude.
Bin cgnh do, bdi viet con sie dung ky thudt md hinh ARIMA de du bdo tong ngudn vdn ddu tu vd ty trong dong von ciia 4 kinh ddu tu vdo Thdnh pho Ho Chi Minh din nam 2025. Qua do, bdi viet ciing de xudt mot so giai phdp nhdm tang cuang thu hut vdn ddu tu vdo Thdnh pho Ho Chi Minh.
Tir khoa: Vdn ddu tu; du bdo, md hinh ARIMA.
RESERVE FORECAST AND INVESTMENT STRUCTURE- RESEARCH AT HO CHI MINH CITY
ABSTRACT
Capital is a factor that can not be ignored when researching local development. The article used statistical methods to compare the data on investment capital in Ho Chi Minh City during the period from 2005 to 2018. Based on the statistical data, the authors have studied the situation of investment capital in Ho Chi Minh City through 4 capital supply channels: (1) Foreign direct investment (FDI):
(2) Investment capital from non-state enterprises; (3) Investment capital from households; (4) Investment capital from the State sector. In addition, the article also used ARIMA model techniques to forecast the total investment capital and the capital flow of 4 channels into Ho Chi Minh City until 2025. Thereby, the authors also proposed several solutions to enhance the attraction of investment capital into Ho Chi Minh City.
Key words: Investment capital, forcasting, ARIMA model
* PGS. TS. G V. Truang Dgi hoc Ngdn hdng TPHCM. Email: loannt(d).bi(h.edit, vn '* PGS.TS. GV Truang Dgi hpc Ngdn hdng TPHCM. Email: hoaltt(a),buh.edu.vn
" ' TS. Chi Cue thue Binh Thgnh TPHCM
Tap chi Kinh tfe' - Ky thuat I . G l d l T H I E U
Thanh ph6 H6 Chi Minh (TRHCM) la khu vuc co lire lupng kinh tl tu nhan va la trung tam tai chinh Ion nh§t Viet Nam voi dan so chiem khoang 7% dan so ca nuoc va ty trgng GDP luon o muc binh quan 1/3 GDP ca nuoc.
(Nguyin Hoang Thanh Lam, 2017). Theo s6 lieu quyet toan ngan sach Nha nuac (NSNN) giai doan 2016-2018, ty trpng t6ng thu ngan sach cua viing kinh te trpng diem phia Nam trong tong thu ngan sach ca nuoc binh quan 3 nam dat mirc 45,4%; trong do, TPHCM la khu vuc CO dong gop cao nhit, khoang 29,1%.
Nam 2018, TPHCM co s6 thu ngan sach chilm 27,5% tong thu cua ca nuoc, thu hiit kha nhieu von dau tu trong nuoc va von dau tu nuoc ngoai vao Viet Nam.
Theo Ngo Van Hai (2015), v6n la mot trong cac nguon luc quan trgng, co tac dgng den tang truong kinh te va nhu cau von phat trien cho TRHCM la rat lan. Tuy nhien thuc trang viec thu hilt cac nguon von cho phat trien kinh te ciia TRHCM vln con nhirng ton tai nhat dinh tir CO che, chinh sach ciing nhu chua khai thac mot each CO hieu qua de thu hiit tao lap tong lire cac nguon von. Do do, viec nghien cuu thuc trang nguon von dau tu vao khu vuc trung tam tai chinh Ion nhu TRHCM la v6 ciing c3n thilt, giiip ca quan chiic nang co nhung giai phap dinh huong nham phat trien kinh te cua TRHCM va cac khu vuc kinh te lan can. Nghien cuu cua Yun-hwan Kim and Pumima Rajapakse (2001) phan anh su can thiet cua viec thu hut von dau tu trong timg giai doan phat trien tai cac quoc gia dang phat trien o Chau A. Nghien cuu ve uac lugng trij lugng von dugc cac nha nghien cuu quan tam tu lau. Tinbergen tir dau nhirng nam 1942 da thuc hien cac uac tinh ve trii lugng von dua tren cac chi bao tai san (Maddison, 1994). Uac lugng trir lugng von bang phucmg phap khau hao v6 tan xuat phat tir nghien cim mang tinh khoi dau cua Goldsmith vao nam 1951. Tac gia nay thuc hien uac lugng trir lugng von ciia My theo chuoi dij
lieu ve dau tu va chgn nam glc de tinh toan.
Sau do, cac nha nghien cuu thuc hien viec tinh toan va so sanh cac gia tri tru lugng von ciia cac qu6c gia khac nhau (Maddison, 1994). ARIMA la mot ky thuat ph6 biln trong kinh te lugng cho phep xu ly cac chuoi dii lieu don nham xac dinh xu huong hay du bao bIng cac dir lieu qua khu va thuong dugc ggi la phucmg phap luan Box- Jenkins (Gujarati, 2004). Nhiing gia tri du bao nhan dugc tir mot ham so tuyen tinh ciia cac gia tri qua khu va cac sai so trong du bao, vi thi ARIMA la mot each tiep can phiic tap trong du bao (Kabacoff, 2011).
Bai viet "/)»• bdo trir luang vd ca cdu vdn ddu tu-Nghiin ciru tgi TPHCM" se nghien cihi thuc trang von dau tu vao TP.HCM thong qua phuang phap thong ke so lieu; dong thai, nhom tac gia thuc hien uoc lugng du bao trii lugng von dau tu va ca cau von dau tu trong tuong lai tai TRHCM thong qua mo hinh ARIMA. Qua do, bai viet se de xuat mot so giai phap nham cai thien va tang cuang thu hut von dau tu vao khu vuc TP.HCM. Noi dung tilp theo cua bai viet se bao gom cac phan sau; phan 2- ca so ly thuyet va phuong phap nghien cuu; phan 3-ket qua nghien cim; va phan 4 - ket luan va ggi y giai phap.
2. CO S 6 LY THUYET VA PHU^OfNG PHAP NGHIEN ClTU
2.1. Tong quan ly thuyet ve von dau tit Theo Tran Thp Dat (2002), v6n diu tu dugc chia lam 2 loai, bao gom dau tu cho tai san san xuat va dau tu cho tai san phi san xuat. Von dau tu cho tai san san xuat ggi la von san xuat, do la chi phi de thay the tai san co dinh hi thai loai de tang tai san co dinh moi va de tang tai san ton kho. Nhu vay boat dpng dau tu la viec sir dung von dau tu de phuc hoi nang lye san xuat va tao ra nang luc san xuat moi, do la qua trinh chuyen hoa von thanh cac tai san phuc vu cho qua trinh san xuat. Theo Ngo Van Hai (2015), nguon lire von dau tu hay con gpi la ngu6n luc v6n tai chinh. Do la lugng von thuc tl duoi dang
Di/bdo trdli/gng vd cacdu...
tien te va quy d6i ra tiln dugc buy dpng d& phuc vu cho su phat triln kinh tl xa hoi cua mot dat nuoc. Tong v6n ddu tu c6 thi dugc phan loai theo nguon von dau tu nhu sau: v6n dSu tu nuoc ngoai; von ddu tu khu virc nha nuoc; v6n dlu tu cua doanh nghiep ngoai nha nuoc; v6n dau tu cuahp gia dinh,...
2.1.1. Von ddu tw nw&c ngoai Theo Nguyin Thanh Phong (2019), v6n dau tu nuac ngoai co vai tro hit sue quan trgng trong nen kinh tl. Do vira la ngu6n bl sung v6n cho dau tu, vira la mot each dl chuyin giao cong nghe, ciing la mot giai phap tao viec lam va thu nhap cho nguai lao dgng, tao ngudn thu cho ngan sach va thiic day nhanh qua trinh chuyin dich CO cau kinh te... V6n dau tu nuac ngoai gom cac nguon chii yeu sau: v6n dau tu true tilp ciia nuoc ngoai (FDI), von dau tu gian tiep ciia nuac ngoai (FII) va von ho trg phat trien chinh thirc (ODA).
+ Von dau tu true tiep ciia nuoc ngoai (FDI): To chirc Hgp tac va Phat trien kinh te - OECD (2008) dinh nghTa dau tu true tiep nuoc ngoai la mot hinh thuc dau tu qua bien gioi dugc thuc hien bai doi tugng cu tni tai mot nen kinh te (nha dau tu true tiep) vai muc tieu thiet lap Igi ich lau dai tai mot doanh nghiep (doanh nghiep FDI) la doi tugng cu trii tai mot nen kinh te khac. Do do, von dau tu true tiep cua nuoc ngoai la nhiing khoan dau tu do nhiing to chirc va ca nhan nguai nuac ngoai dua vao mot nuac de san xudt kinh doanh hoac de gop v6n lien doanh vai cac to chuc, ca nhan trong nuac theo quy dinh ciia Luat dau tu nuoc ngoai tai nuac do (IMF, 2009). V6n diu tu true tiep cua nuoc ngoai tao dilu kien cho nuoc so tai co the thu hiit dugc ky thuat va cong nghe tiln tiln, kinh nghiem quan ly kinh doanh cua nuac ngoai.
+ V6n d&u tu gian tiep ciia nuac ngoai (FII): La cac khoan v6n dau tu nuac ngoai thuc hien thong qua mot dinh chi tai chinh trung gian nhu cac quy dJiu tu, hoac dau tu true tiep vao co phan cac cong ty niem yit tren thj truong chung
khoan (con ggi la dau tu Portfolio) (Nguyen Thanh Phong 2019). Khi thuc hien dSu tu gian tiep, cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai khong quan tam den qua trinh san xuat kinh doanh thuc te ma chi quan tam den Igi tuc (voi mot muc riii ro nhat dinh), hoac su an toan ciia nhimg chimg khoan ma ho dau tu vao (voi mot muc Igi tiic nhat dinh). Von dau tu gian tiep ciia nuoc ngoai co tac dgng tich cue kich thich tai chinh phat trien theo huong nang cao hieu qua boat dpng, tang tinh cong khai minh bach cho nguon von, va giiip mo rpng quy mo, tao dieu kien cho nhiing doanh nghiep trong nuac de dang tiep c^n voi nguon von mai ciing nhu sir dung nguon von moi CO hieu qua.
+ Von ho trg phat trien chinh thirc (ODA): La nguon von ciia nha tai trg nuoc ngoai cung cap cho Nha nuac hoac Chinh phii nuac Cong hoa xa hoi chu nghTa Viet Nam de ho trg phat trien, bao dam phiic Igi va anh sinh xa hoi bao gom von ODA vien trg khong hoan lai va von vay ODA (phai hoan tra, dugc uu dai lai suat, thoi gian an ban, thoi gian tra ng). Nguon von nay thucmg dugc tap tnrng vao ngan sach cua Chinh phu de dau tu phat trien hoac cho vay.
Day la nguon von co quy mo tuong doi lan, thai gian dau tu dai thucmg tap trung vao cac cong trinh co so ha tang mang tam chien luge quoc gia nhu: duong quoc 16, cang bien, duang day tai dien cao the, thuy dien, cac ho dap, thiiy Igi Ion...CO y nghTa then chot va chii dao doi voi viec chuyen doi co cau kinh te, tao ra dgng luc phat trien kinh te cua dat nuoc.
2.1.2. Von ddu tie khu VMT nhd nie&c + Von tir ngan sach nha nuac (NSNN):
dugc hinh thanh tir tiet kiem ciia NSNN, quy mo CLia no tiiy thugc vao chinh sach tiet kiem va chi tieu ciia chinh phu. Theo Dieu 4, Dieu 5 Luat Ngan sach Nha nuoc s6 83/2015/QH13 cua Viet Nam: NSNN la toan bg cac khoan thu, chi ciia Nha nuoc dugc du toan va thuc hien trong mot khoang thai gian nhat dinh do co quan nha nuac CO tham quyin quylt dinh de dam bao thuc hien
Tap chi Kinh te - Ky thuat
cac chirc nang, nhiem vu ciia Nha nuac. Ngudn von tir NSNN thong thuong tai trg cho cac du an dau tu cong, tuc la nhimg du an nhim tao ra nhiing hang boa, dich vu cong.
+ Von tin dung dau tu phat trien ciia nha nu6c: Day la mot hinh thuc qua dp chuyin tir hinh thirc cap phat ngan sach sang phuang thiic tin dung doi voi cac du an co kha nang thu hoi von true tiep, co tac dung tich cue trong viec giam dang ke viec bao cap von true tiep cua nha nude. Muc dich cua von tin dung dau tu phat trien ciia nha nuac la ho trg cac du an dau tu phat trien ciia cac thanh phan kinh te thuoc mot so nganh, linh vuc quan trpng, chuong trinh kinh te Idn co tac dgng true tiep den chuyen dich CO cau kinh te, thuc day tang truong kinh te ben viing.
+ Von ciia doanh nghiep nha nuoc: Day la von dugc hinh thanh tir rat nhieu ngudn khac nhau nhu: ngudn vdn do ngan sach nha nuoc cap cho cac doanh nghiep nha nude liic mdi hinh thanh doanh nghiep; ngudn vdn buy dpng thong qua phat hanh trai phieu, cd phieu (ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep nha nude da thuc hien cd phan hda); Igi nhuan tich luy dugc phep de lai doanh nghiep...
2.1.3. Von dau tu cua doanh nghiep ngodi nha nude
Doi vdi cac doanh nghiep ngoai qudc doanh, ngudn vdn nay dugc hinh thanh tir viec gop vdn ban dau cua cac chii sd huu; Igi nhuan sau thue; ngudn vdn buy dpng tir phat hanh cd phieu ddi vdi edng ty cd phan, phat hanh trai phieu doanh nghiep de thu hiit vdn dau tu phat trien san xuat kinh doanh; vay tin dung ngan hang, vay lan nhau giiia cac doanh nghiep cd von tam thoi nhan roi, vay thdng qua mua hang tra cham va vay thuong mai,... Ngudn vdn nay ngay cang cd vai tro quan trgng to Ion va y nghTa trong viec md mang nganh nghe. phat trien cdng nghe, thuong mai, dich vu va van tai; tai dau tu, tac dpng tri^c tiep den tdc do tang truong kinh te.
2.1.4. Von dau tir ciia ho gia dinh
Nguon vdn nay thdng thuong la nhiing khoan thu nhap con lai sau khi sir dung cho muc dich tieu dimg hien tai va cung cd the la cac khoan de danh cho nhu cau tuang lai ciia cac ca nhan, hg gia dinh hoac cac khoan du phong khi dm dau, tai nan... Ngudn vdn nay phu thugc vao thu nhap va chi tieu ciia mdi hd gia dinh. Mot xu hudng chung la cac ho gia dinh co miic thu nhap cao ban thuong se tiet kiem nhieu va d nhung nude phat trien ciing cd ty le tiet kiem cao ban nhiing nude kem phat trien.
2.1.5. Vdn khdc
Mot sd ngan hang thuong mai va cac td chiic tai chinh trung gian khac nhu cdng ty tai chinh, quy tin dung nhan dan, cdng ty bao hiem... cd vai tro rat quan trgng trong viec buy dgng vdn dau tu phat trien. Cac td chuc tin dung cd the diing ngudn von buy dgng tir nen kinh te va dan cu hay ngudn von nhan uy thac de cd the thda man dugc mgi nhu cau ve vdn ciia cac phap nhan va the nhan trong nen kinh te, neu nhung ddi tugng vay vdn chap hanh day du nhung quy che tin dung.
Tai cac qudc gia dang phat trien, vdi lire lugng ddng dao dpi ngu tri thirc, nha khoa hpc nhu ngudi Viet Nam hien dang sinh song d nude ngoai, trong dd cd nhieu ngudi la chuyen gia gioi ve cac ITnh vuc khoa hpc va cdng nghe, quan ly kinh doanh... tao ra khoi lugng ngoai te, hang hoa giri tir nude ngoai ve nude hang nam. Day cung la mot ngudn vdn Ion, gdp phan khdng nho vao viec dap img nhu cau ve vdn dau tu ngay cang tang len trong sir nghiep cong nghiep hda, hien dai hoa dat nude.
2.1.6. Phicffngphdp nghien cuu Bai viet su dung phuang phap thong ke, so sanh de nghien ciiu va danh gia xu hudng.
thuc trang lupng vdn dau tu tai TP.HCM trong giai doan ni nam 2005 den nam 2018. S6 Heu dugc tdng hgp va phan loai theo ngudn gdc cua vdn dau tu bao gdm: (1) Vdn dau tu true tiep nude ngoai (FDI); (2) Vdn dau tu khu vuc nha nude; (3) Vdn dau tu tir doanh nghiep ngoai
DL/ bdo trCt laang va ca cau...
nha nuoc; (4) V6n dau tu tir ho gia dinh va (5) Von khac.
Sau do, nhom tac gia sir dung mo hinh ARIMA de dvr bao lirgng v6n dSu tu tai TP.HCM trong 5 nam toi dita tren dir lieu trong qua khu.
Theo Gujarati (2004), ARIMA la mot ky thuat pho bien trong kinh tS lugng nhjm xir ly cac chuoi do lieu don va xac dinh xu huong hay du bao dir lieu bang cac du lieu qua khii thucmg dugc ggi la phuong phap luan Box-Jenkins, vol dang sau:
yi = « + py,_, + 9e,_, + e,(*) Trong do: y, dai dien do lugng v6n dBu tu vao thcri gian t (nam nghien ciru)
a la 1 hang s6, e^ la mot s6 hang sai s6 nglu nhien khong tugng quan.
Chuoi du lieu ma bai vik sij dung mo hinh ARIMA d6 du bao su biSn dong ciia cac dong von o TP.HCM trong 5 nam toi la bg s6 lieu vk nguon v6n ciia TP.HCM tir nam 2005 din 2018. Nhom tac gia thuc hien du bao theo 4 kenh von chu yeu: (1) Vgn dau tu true tiip nuoc ngoai (FDI); (2) V6n diu tu tit doanh nghiep ngoai nha nuoc; (3) Von dau tu tir hg gia dinh;
Bang 1: Thong ke trif luang va ca
(4) Von dau tu khu vuc nha nuoc. Voi 4 kenh vSn, rthom tac gia se t6ng hgp thanh du bao t6ng von dau tu tai TP.HCM. Dir lieu nghien cim la so lieu thong ke von dau tu theo gia hien hanh dugc thu thap tir Nien giam Th6ng ke TP.HCM o cac nam. Tuy nhien, von dau tu cua khu vuc nha nuoc la nguon von bi kiem soat va kho thuc hien mot each hieu qua vi kenh von nay chiu anh huong tir nhirng quy dinh nghiem ngat ciia CO quan quan ly nha nuoc. Do do, viec du bao dugc thuc hien dua tren mot gia dinh rang su 6n dinh ciia nguon von nha nuoc se tuong tu vgi giai doan truoc do.
3. KET QUA NGHIEN CCTU
3.1. Thirc trang trir lirong va cff cau von ailu tu- tai TP.HCM
Tinh den nam 2018, tong trir lugng von diu tu vao TRHCM la 465.990 ty d6ng, chiam hon 50% tong lugng von dau tu tai viing kinh tS trgng dilm phia Nam. Bang 1 ben duoi th6ng ke trir lugng va eg cau von dau tu tai TP.HCM trong giai doan 2005-2018 theo 4 kenh v6n khac nhau:
cdu von ddu tu tgi TP.H6 Chi Minh DVT: ty ddng Nim
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Von dau tir nirfVc ngoiki (FDI) 9.518,3 12.744,3 15.970,2 22.426,9 26.609,1 32.300,5 31.489,6 34.590,2 47.974,2 46.801,5 42.578,0 48.010,0 56.874,0 59.103,9
Von dau ttr DN tu' nhin (Firm) 17.772,0 27.031,8 36.291,5 42.118,5 48.348,6 57.492,8 85.172,2 94.791,2 97.917,2 114.677,0 135.709,0 151.335,0 186.249,0 196.640,0
Von dau tu* ho gia dinh (Household)
11.049,4 13.807,7 16.566,0 19.832,7 23.422,0 28.104,0 36.341,7 39.685,1 39.454,2 42.690,1 48.699,3 53.210,0 62.974,0 64.994,71
Von dau tir khu vin: nha nuo-c
(StateBud) 18.760,0 22.366,0 28.690,0 36330,0 44.782,0 52.406,0 49.325,0 47.268,0 46635,0 50.832,0 56.533.0 56.276,0 59.613,0 61.447,0
Von khic 1.548,3 1.660,7 3.523,2 3.875,2 1.981,8 3,174,9 5,885,1 6.291.4 6.513,6 6391,5 7.105,2 53.320,0 62.930,8 30.941,7
Tdng von dSu tu- (Total) 57.345,5 77.606,5 97.867,6 121.101,0 43.613,0 173.494,0 202.937,0 216.945,0 232.631,0 255.662.0 284.210.0 362.041.0 428.684.0 465.990.0 (Ngudn: Tdng hgp tic Xieii giam Thdng ki TPHCM)
Tap chi Kixih t6 - Ky thu^t
Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh vln ludn la trung tam kinh te sdi ddng, dac biet la vdi boat dpng kinh doanh phat trien ciia cac doanh nghiep tai thanh phd da dan den khu vuc doanh nghiep khdng chi la khu vuc cd ty trpng dau tu idn nhat trong tdng vdn dau tu toan xa bdi ma day cung la khu vuc cd tdc dp tang truong ddng vdn dau tu Idn nhat. Sd lieu tir Bang 1 cho thdy tir nam 2005 den 2018, tdng vdn dau tu toan xa hoi tai thanh phd tang khoang 8,1 lan dat muc hon 465.990 ngan ty ddng, trong dd, ngudn vdn thu hilt dugc tir khu vuc doanh nghiep tang hon Bang 2: Ty trong vdn ddu tu
12,8 lan, ti^p den la vdn dau tu cua khu vuc FDI vdi ty le tuong img la 7,2 lan. Den nam 2018, ty trpng vdn diu tu tir khu vuc doanh nghiep va hd gia dinh vSn la 2 khu vuc dan dau ty trgng vdn dlu tu tai Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh vdi ty trgng lan lugt la 48,92% va 16,54%.
Ca cau lugng von dau tu vao TP.HCM cd sir thay ddi d cac kenh khac nhau trong giai doan nghien cim the hien kha rd ret d Bang 2 dudi day:
vdo TPHCM giai doan 2005-2018 DVT: (%) N9m
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Von Dau tir nirivc ngoai
(FDI) 16,60 16,42 16,32 18,52 18,53 18,62 15,52 15,94 20,62 18,31 14,98 13,26 13,27 14,71
Von Dau tu DN tu nhan (Firm) 30,99 34,83 37,08 34,78 33,67 33,14 41,97 43,69 42,09 44,85 47,75 41,80 43,45 48,92
\ha DSu tu h9 gia dinh (Household)
19,27 17,79 16,93 16,38 16,31 16,20 17,91 18,29 16,96 16,70 17,13 14,70 14,69 16,54
Von Dau tu* khu vuc nha nuiyc
(StaleBud) 32,71 28,82 29,31 30,00 31,18 30,21 24.31 21,79 20,05 19,88 19,89 15,54 13,91 13,19
vdn khac 0,27 2,14 0,36 0,32 1,38 1,83 0,29 0,29 0,28 0,36 0,25 14,70 14,68 6,64
Tong von dau tu (TotaO
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Theo s6 lieu o Bang 2, ty trgng von dau tu vao TPHCM chii ySu la ngu6n von dau tu tir doanh nghiep tu nhan va nguon von dau tu tir khu vuc nha nuoc. Tuy nhien. ty trgng lugng v5n dau tu vao TP.HCM tir khu \ uc nha nuoc co xu huong giam dan trong giai doan nghien ciru tir 32,71% (nam 2005) xu6ng con 13,19% (nam 2018). Trong khi do, ty trgng hrgng von dau tu tir doanh nghiep tu nhan co xu huong tang nhieu va dat din mirc 4S.92"n vao nam 2018. chiim
(Nguon: Tdng hap tit Nien giam Thdng lie TP.HCM) gan 50% tong lugng von dau tu vao TP.HCM.
Theo Bao cao ciia So Ke hoach va Dau tu TPHCM trong 3 nam tir 2016 den 2018, t6ng von dau tu toan xa hoi uoc dat 1.111.486 ty dong (khoang 47 ty USD), tang binh quan moi nam 8.4% va chiem khoang 30% tong san pham noi dia (GRDP) cua Thanh pho; trong do phan chia theo nguon von bao gom:
- Von dau tu tir khu vuc ngoai nha nuac:
phan Ion tir doanh nghiep uoc dat 730.679 ty
Di/bdo trCflLfang vd cacdu...
dong, chiem ty trpng 65,7% trong tdng vdn diu tu ciia thanh phd.
- Vdn dau tu nude ngoai (FDI): uoc dat 184.371 ty ddng, chidm ty trgng 16,6% trong tdng vdn dau tu cua thanh phd.
- Vdn dau tu tir khu vu'c nha nude: udc d^t 196.434 ty ddng, chidm ty trgng 17,7% tdng vdn dau tu toan xa hoi; trong dd tdng von diu tu tir ngan sach dat la 82.438ty ddng, chiSm khoang 7,4% tdng vdn dau tu cua Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh.
Xet rieng ve ngudn vdn diu tu tir khu vuc nha nude, trong giai doan 2016 - 2018, ngoai ngudn vdn can ddi tir ngudn thu ngan sach Thanh phd dugc hudng theo phan cip, Thanh phd da tap trung buy ddng vdn cho diu tu bing nhieu hinh thiic, thuc hien nhidu giai phap dS tao ngudn luc dau tu phat trien tren dia ban, cu the nhu sau:
- Vay lai ngudn vdn vay nude ngoai cua Chinh phu (vdn ODA, vay uu dai tir nha tai trg nude ngoai): Trong cac nam qua, ngudn vdn ODA va vdn vay uu dai cua cac nha tai trg nude ngoai da gdp phan tao dieu kien phat trien he thdng ket cau ha tang, chinh trang dd thi, xir ly nude thai va mdi truong cua thanh phd; ddng thai, thdng qua cac du an ODA da ho trg thanh phd tang cudng nang lire, chuyen giao tien bg khoa hgc, cdng nghe hien dai va kinh nghiem quan ly tien tien. Hien nay, thanh phd dang theo ddi tinh hinh thuc hien va tra ng vay ciia 11 du an ODA. Ngudn vdn ODA da giai ngan trong giai doan 2016 - 2018 la 8.950 ty ddng (khoang 0,38 ty USD).
- Khai thac ngudn thu tir nha, dat: Dd khai thac ngudn thu tu nha, dat, thanh phd da thuc hien nhilu hinh thiic khac nhau nhu thu hdi dat theo quy hoach, kd hoach su dung dat tao quy dit "sach" de diu gia quydn su dung dat hoac
thuc hien dau thau cac du an cd sir dung dat; ap dung hinh thiic nha nuoc cho thue dat tra tien hang nam hoac tra tien mot lan cho ca thai gian thue, tao quy dat khi xay dung cac cdng trinh ket cau ha tang, chinh trang dd thi; xu ly sap xep lai nha dat thuoc sd him Nha nude. Tdng sd tien thu dugc tir viec ban nha va chuyen nhupng quyen sir dung dat, chuyen muc dich sii dung dat tir khi thuc hien Quydt djnh 09/2007/QD-TTg cua Thu tuong Chinh phu (nay la Nghi dinh sd 167/201II ND-CP) d§n nam 2018 la 21.615,341 ty ddng (khoang 0,93 ty USD).
- Phat hanh trai phieu chinh quyen dja phuang: giai doan 2016-2018, lan dau tien trong qua trinh phat hanh trai phieu, thanh phd phat hanh thanh cdng toan bp khoi lugng trai phieu ky han 15 nam, 20 nam va 30 nam vdi tdng khdi lugng phat hanh la 5.800 ty ddng (khoang 0,25 ty USD).
Cac hinh thirc nay da gdp phan giam bdt ap luc can ddi vdn dau tu ciia Thanh phd, va van la cac phuang thirc tiem nang cho dau tu phat trien. Theo do, cac rao can han che viec thu hut cac ngudn lire xa hdi cho dau tu phat trien theo cac phuang thiic nay can cd giai phap nhat djnh.
3.2. Dir bao trfr Iirtrag va cff cau von dau tu- tai TP.HCM
Bai vih six dung phuang phap du bao bing md hinh ARIMA udc lupng vdn dau tu vao TP.HCM trong 5 nam tdi theo 4 kenh vdn nhu sau:
3.2.1. Du bdo luang vdn ddu tu nw&c ngodi (FDI) vdo Thdnh pho Ho Chi Minh
K^t qua d\x bao cho thay, ddng vdn FDI chay vao TP.HCM tang din tuong ddi dn dinh trong khoang 5 nam tdi. Gia trj vdn dau tu nude ngoai vao nam 2025 theo du bao cd the dat den mirc hon 85 nghin ty ddng theo gia hien hanh (Bang 3).
Tap chi Kinh t£' - Ky tliu$t
Baiig3: Dir bdo luang vdn ddu tu nude ngodi (FDI) vdo Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh DVT: Tyddng
Nam 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
FDI (gia 2005) 22.245,88 22.793,92 23.280,40 23.705,31 24.068,64 24.370,41 24.610,60 24.789,22
Khoang dy bao FDI (gia 2005) Cao nhat 29.056,77 29.543,25 29.968,15 30.331,49 30.633,25 30.873,45 31.052,07
Thap nhat 16.531,08 17.017,55 17.442,46 17.805,79 18.107,56 18.347,75 18.526,38
FDI (gia hi€n
hanh) 59.103,86 62.959,23 66.750,28 70.531,16 74.310,44 78.089,45 81.868,44 85.647,41
Khoang dir bao FDI (gia hien hanh) Cao nhat 71.525,85 75.317,88 79.098,79 82.878,06 86.657,08 90.436,06 94.215,03
Thap nhat 54.392,61 58.182,68 61.963,54 65.742,81 69.521,83 73.300,81 77.079,78 (Nguon : Tinh toan tic dir li^u) phd Hd Chi Minh cd the tang hon 2,5 lan so vdi nam 2018 va dat den mirc khoang 406 nghin ty ddng theo gia hien hanh. Xu hudng ddng vdn dugc du bao tang dan qua cac nam (Bang 4).
BSng 4: Du bdo lugng von ddu tu cua doanh nghiep tu nhdn tgi TP. HCM DVT: Ty ddng 3.2.2. Dvr bdo iwong vdn Mu tir cua doanh
nghiep tw nhan (Firm) tai TP. Ho Chi Minh Ket qua du bao cho thay, den nam 2025, lugng vdn ciia cac doanh nghiep dau tu tai Thanh
NSm
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Firm (gia 2005) 80.966,52 89.110,72 97.723,93 106.806,20 116.357,40 126.377,60 136.866,90 147.825,20
Khoiing du bao Firm (gia 2005) Cao nhat
99.927,30 108.540,50 117.622,70 127.174,00 137.194,20 147.683,50 158.641,80
Thip nhat
Firm (gia hiln
hanh) 196.640,00 78.294,13
86.907,34 95.989,57 105.540,80 115.561,10 126.050,30 137.008,60
221.717,90 248.412,80 276.724,80 306.653,60 338.199,50 371.362,40 406.142,20
Khoang du* bdo Firm (gia hifn hanh) Cao nhat
242.917,70 269.612,60 297.924,60 327.853,40 359.399,30 392.562,20 427.342,00
Thap nhat
200.518,10 227.213,00 255.524,90 285.453,80 316.999,70 350.162,60 384.942,40 (Ngudn: Tinh todn tir dir lieu) 3.2.3. Du bdo lugng vdn ddu tu cua ho gia ^nh (Household) tgi TP. Hd Chi Minh Ket qua du bao cho thay lugng vdn dau
tu ciia hg gia dinh tai Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh vao nam 2025 du bao tang gap ddi so vdi nam 2018. Nam 2025, lupng vdn dau tu ciia hd gia dinh dat gia trj khoang 116 nghin ty ddng theo
gia hien hanh va 53,4 nghin ty ddng theo gia so sanh nam 2005 so vdn nam 2018 dat khoang 65 nghin ty ddng (gia hien hanh) va 29,5 nghin ty ddng (gia so sanh nam 2005).
18
Du bdo trd luang vd ca cdu...
Nam
2018 7019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Bang 5: Die bdo luang
Household (gia 2005) 29.482,54 31.367,85 34.453,85 38.685,27 41.419,53 45.075,17 49.844,64 53.394,79
i>dn ddu tu cua hd gia dinh (Household) tgi TP. HCM DVT: Tvdons Khoang du- bSo Household
(gia 2005) Cao nhat 33.493,52 36.569,70 41.039,10 43.937,57 47.589,98 52.518,24 56.159,47
Th^p nhat
29.242,18 32.338,01 36.331,45 38.901,49 42.560,35 47.171,04 50.630,11
Household hien hanh 64.994,71 71.362,35 78.046,85 85.048,20 92.366,41 100.001,50 107.953,40 116.222,20
Khoang du bao Household gii hien h^nh Cao nhSt 77.996,18 84.680,68 91.682,03 99.000,24 106.635,30 114.587,20 122.856,00
Thap nhat 64.728,53 71.413,02 78.414,38 85.732,59 93.367,66 101.319,60 109.588,40 (Ngudn: Tinh todn tir dU' lieu) 3.2.4. Dyr bdo lirgng vdn nhd nude
(StateBud) tgi TP. Hd Chi Minh
Ket qua du bao ddng vdn khu vuc nha nude tai thanh phd Hd Chi Minh cho thdy, ddn nam 2025 khu vuc nha nude cd miic vdn dau tu khoang 85,95 ngan ty ddng theo gia hien hanh va
Bang 6: Du bdo ddng vdn khu vuc nhd nude tgi TP. Ho Chi Minh DVT: Tyddng tuong ling vdi miic khoang 28,8 ngan ty ddng theo gia so sanh nam 2005. Nam 2025 lugng vdn dau tu khu vuc nha nude vao TP.HCM dat mirc cao nhat la 93.151,51 ty ddng theo gia hien hanh.
Nam 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
StateBud (gii 2005) 24.877,33 26.344,99 26.776,09 27.217,36 27.622,97 28.025,85 28.415,34 28.801,42
Khoang du bao StateBud (gia 2005) Cao nhit
31.007,29 31.435,68 31.937,16 32.345,35 32.757,90 33.148,72 33.536,59
Thap nhat
21.682,69 22.116,49 22.497,55 22.900,60 23.293,81 23.681,95 24.066,25
StateBud (hien hilnh) 61.447,00 66.761,57 69.977,52 73.176,48 76.372,38 79.567,74 82.763,01 85.958,25
Khoang du bao StateBud (gia hiln h^nh) Cao nhat
73.932,68 77.170,06 80.369,71 83.565,64 86.761,00 89.956,27 93.151,51
Thap nhat
59.590,46 62.784,97 65.983,24 69.179,13 72.374,48 75.569,75 78.76,99 (Nguon: Tinh todn tir dir lieu) 3.2.5. Tdng hap du bdo ve tru lugng
von dau tir vdo TP.Hd Chi Minh
Kdt qua du bao d Bang 7 ben dudi cho thiy ddng vdn dau tu tai thanh phd vao nam
2025 cd thd dat miic gan 694 ngan ty ddng theo gia hien hanh, cao gap 1.8 lan so vdi nam 2018.
Tap chi Kinh td' - Ky thu^t
Bang 7: Du bdo tdng vdn dau tu tgi TP. Hd Chi Minh DVT: Tyddng Nam
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
T8ng 157.572,27 169.617,48 182.234,27 196.414,14 209.468,54 223.849,03 239.737,48 254.810,63
Gia 2005 Cao nh^t 193.484,88 206.089,13 220.567,11 233.788,41 248.175,33 264.223,91 279.389,93
Thap nhat 145.750,08 158.379,39 172.261,03 185.148,68 199.522,82 215.251,04 230.231,34
Tong 382.185,57 422.801,05 463.187,45 505.480,64 549.702,83 595.858,19 643.947,25 693.970,06
Gia hien h^nh Cao nhat 466.372,41 506.781,22 549.075,13 593.297.34 639.452,68 687.541,73 737.564,54
ThSp nhat 379.229,70 419.593,67 461.886,06 506.108,33 552.263,67 600.352,76 650.375,57 (Ngudn: Tinh todn tir dir lieu) Bang 8: Du bdo ty trong ddng vdn ddu tu tgi TP. Ho Chi Minh
DVT: Tyddng Nam
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Ty trong cac dong von dau tir FDI
13,44%
12,77%
12,07%
11,49%
10,89%
10,27%
9,73%
Firm 52,54%
53,63%
54,38%
55,55%
56,46%
57,09%
58,01%
Household 18,49%
18,91%
19,70%
19,77%
20,14%
20,79%
20,95%
StateBud 15,53%
14,69%
13,86%
13,19%
12,52%
11,85%
11,30%
Sd lieu du bao cho thay kenh vdn dau tu tir doanh nghiep tu nhan tai Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh chiem phan Idn trong tdng vdn dau tu.
Den nam 2025, ddng vdn tir doanh nghiep tu nhan chiem khoang 58%, ke den la ddng vdn tir hd gia dinh la 20,95% gia tri vdn dau tu toan xa hdi. Tir nam 2019 den 2025, ty trpng lupng vdn FDI tai TP.HCM cd xu hudng giam dan, den 2025 dat khoang 9,73%. Ben canh dd, ty trpng vdn dau tu tir khu vuc nha nude ciing giam nhe, khu vuc nha nude den nam 2025 theo du bao chi chiem khoang 11,30% vdn dau tu tai thanh phd Hd Chi Minh.
4. KET LUAN VA GOI Y GIAI PHAP 4.1. Kdt luan vetrirliroTig^acff cau von dSutu-tai TP.HCM
(Ngudn: Tinh todn tir du li^u) Bai viet due ket mot sd diem ndi bat ve thuc trang va du bao vdn dau tu tai TP.HCM nhu sau:
Thir nhdt, tdng trii lugng vdn dau tu vao TP.HCM ngay cang tang trong sudt giai doan nghien cuu. Dieu nay thay ro ret nhat qua sd lieu thdng ke d Bang 1 va du bao den nam 2025, con sd nay gan 700 nghin ty ddng thdng qua ket qua du bao the hien d Bang 7.
Thir hai. trong tdng vdn dau tu vac TP.HCM thi ddng vdn dau tu tir cac doanh nghiep ngoai quoc doanh ludn chiem ty trgng cao nhat va du kien den nam 2025 se chiem gan 60% tong vdn dau tu. Trong khi dd, lugng vdn diu tu true tiep nude ngoai (FDI) cd xu hudng giam nhe, ty trgng ddng gdp ciia ddng vdn nay trong tdng vdn dau tu cdn dugc du bao s6 giam di
Di/bao trdluang vd cocdu...
o nam 2025 so vdi nhiing nam trudc dd (Bang 8).
_^ Do do, tuy lugng vdn diu tu vao TP HCM deu tang qua cac nam nhung chii ydu vln la ngudn vdn ttr cac doanh nghiep trong nude d khu vuc tu nhan. Ty trgng lugng vdn diu tu khu vuc nha nude cd xu hudng giam nhe trong sudt giai doan nghien ciiu va giai doan du bao ddn nam 2025. Lugng vdn dau tu true ti6p nude ngoai dd vao TPHCM vin con han chg mac dii day ta noi CO kha nang thu hut ngudn v6n Idn cua cac nha dau tu nude ngoai vdi ngudn tai nguyen ddi dao va nhan dugc su quan tam ho trg tir phia Chinh phii, ban nganh dia phuong trong viec thanh lap cac trung tam hd trg phat tridn chiin luge thu hilt FDI d TP Hd Chi Minh (Co quan thuong true tai TPHCM, 2019).
4.2. Ggi y giai phap
4.2.1. Giai phdp khai tdng ngudn vdn tit khu vuc nhd nude
Vdn ngan sach la ngudn von mang tinh ddng lire, thiic day phat trien va lam don bay cho phat trien kinh te, dac biet vdi khu vuc cd quy md kinh te Idn nhu Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh. Do vay, TP.HCM can nghien ciiu thuc hien co che ho trg tai chinh tir ngudn vdn Trung uong ddi vdi cac du an ha tang quan trgng cd quy md dau tu Idn, cd tinh chat ket ndi, tao ddng luc thirc day phat trien trong va ngoai khu vuc. Ddng thdi, Nha nude can de xuat va ap dung co che thu mot sd khoan phi va miic thu phi trong ITnh vuc mdi truong, giao thdng, xir ly chat thai. Mac dii da dugc tridn khai tai TPHCM tu nam 1997, tuy nhien viec thuc hien thu mot sd phi dac thii lien quan den dich vu va thuong mai d dd thi dan sd Idn, thu nhap diu ngudi cao den nay van chua hieu qua va tuong xung vdi quy md ciia dd thi Idn. Cac co chd dac thu nay cin dugc tao dieu kien v^ mat chinh sach cung nhu d\hu kien triln khai thuc td dd tu dd tao lap dugc ngudn luc cho phat tridn kinh td cua dja phuong. Ben canh do, viec quan ly va chi ngan sach dia phuong trong di6u kien ngudn thu ngan sach dia phuong cdn ban hep, cin nghien cim thuc hien : (1) Xay
dung ke hoach tai chinh - ngan sach trung han cudn chieu - theo thii ty uu tien de gan ket tot hon giira ke hoach va ngan sach, giiia chi dau tu va chi thuong xuyen; (2) Xay dung du toan cin can nhac phan bd chi phi va kiem soat viec thirc hien du toan theo dung dinh hudng ITnh vuc uu tien dau tu ciia dia phuang; (3) Xay dung du toan chi ngan sach ap dung mot sd nguyen tac nhu:
xay dung du toan chi ngan sach theo ket qua dau ra, du toan chi gan chat vdi viec thirc hien muc tieu; du toan chi ngan sach theo ke hoach trung ban, theo do chinh sach, ke hoach va ngan sach phai dugc tham chieu trong mot mdi lien he chat che xuyen sudt trong mot khoang thdi gian trung han 3-5 nam.
Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh la dia phuang dau tien thi diem thuc hien viec dau gia quyen sir dung dat cd thu tien sir dung dat hoac cho thue dat va cung la dia phuang dau tien trong ca nude thuc hien thi diem viec xir ly sap xep lai dia chi nha, dat thugc sd hiiu Nha nude. Tren CO sd ket qua dat dugc, thanh phd Hd Chi Minh can tiep tuc khai thac hieu qua quy dat tren dia ban, tao lap cac quy dat sach de dau gia quyen sir dung dat nham tao ngudn tien dau tu cho ha tang hoac ddi cho nha dau tu de lay ha tang.
Ddng thdi, tiep tuc ra soat, phan loai tai san chinh sach, chuyen giao tai san thuong mai cho CO quan quan ly chuyen nghiep de sii dung diing muc dich, khai thac hieu qua hon va "vdn hda"
cac tai san nay, gdp phan bd sung ngudn vdn cho dau tu phat trien ha ting dd thi.
De khai thac hieu qua ngudn tai nguyen, quy dat, quy nha tao ngudn tai chinh phat trien CO sd ha ting trong dai han, giam ganh nang cho ngan sach dja phuong, ngudn tai san cdng can dugc xac dinh la ngudn lire quan trgng. Tdng tai san cdng (gdm dat va nha cdng) ciia TP.HCM nSu dugc thdng ke day dii se Idn hon gip nhieu lin so vdi sd thugc quan ly cap trung uong, nhung ngudn tai san nay chua dugc chu trpng diing miic trong quan ly va khai thac. Chinh quy^n dja phuong can tang cudng chat lugng
Tap chi Kinh t£ - Ky thuat
quan ly tai san cdng de tdi da hda gia tri cua tai san thong qua gia tang ngudn thu va hgp ly hda cac chi phi khdng hieu qua. Lgi nhuan thu dugc tir viec quan ly tai san hieu qua hon se gdp phan cung cap ngudn vdn de dau tu vao co sd ha tang. Tien hanh ra soat, phan loai tai san chinh sach (la tai san mang tinh phuc vu, dap ling nhu cau sir dung ciia co quan nha nude) va tai san thuong mai (la tai san cd kha nang sinh lgi).
Chuyen giao tai san thuong mai cho ca quan quan ly chuyen mon de "vdn hda" cac tai san nay, bd sung ngudn dau tu phat trien ket cau ha tang dd thi.
Ddi vdi TP.HCM, theo quy djnh tai Nghi quyat 54/2017/QH14 ngay 24/11/2017 vd thi diem co che, chinh sach dac thii phat trien TP.HCM, Ngan sach Thanh phd dugc hudng sd thu tir cd phan hda, thoai vdn nha nude tai cac doanh nghiep nha nude do UBND Thanh phd quan ly va sd thu tir thoai vdn nha nude tai cac td chiic kinh te do UBND Thanh phd lam dai dien chii sd hiiu; thanh phd dugc sir dung ngudn thu nay de dau tu phat trien co sd ha tang kinh te-xa hgi cua thanh phd.
De cd the sir dung ngudn thu nay, TP.HCM can day manh ca cau lai doanh nghiep nha nude;
xay dung phuang an sap xep, ddi mdi doanh nghiep nha nude thanh phd giai doan 2018-2020 va giai doan tidp theo dam bao theo tien dp quy dinh; thuc hien Id hinh cd phan hoa, thoai vdn nha nude da dugc co quan cd tham quyen phe duyet, dam bao cdng khai, minh bach trong cd phan hoa, thoai vdn nha nude tai doanh nghiep;
cd CO che thuc hien vdn hda tai san cdng theo gia thi truong. Ngudn thu tir cd phan hda DNNN can dugc quan ly hieu qua va bao toan phat trien ngudn, khdng hda vao ngudn ngan sach de chi thuong xuyen ma xac dinh muc tieu cdt loi la tap trung dau tu ha tang phuc vii dan sinh.
4.2.2. Giai phdp ddi vdi huy dong cdc ngudn vdn vay trong vd ngodi nude
Ngudn vdn vien trg khdng hoan lai ODA va vdn vay uu dai gdp phan dam bao can ddi ngan sach cho dau tu phat trien ha tang. Tuy nhien thuc te day la ngudn vdn rat khd hap thu, chiu nhieu dieu kien rang budc va dang cd chieu
hudng giam manh trong thdi gian tdi. Vi vay, can than trpng, ky luang trong viec danh gia hieu qua va kha nang tra ng ddi vdi cac du an sii dung vdn ODA. Cip cd thim quyen can soat xet, lap danh muc cac du an uu tien sir dung vdn ODA dau tu cac cdng trinh ket cau ha tang trpng diem, quy md Idn, cd tac dung lan tda de cd ca sd dam phan vdi cac td chiic qudc te, gdp phan sir dung ngudn vdn vay hieu qua.
Phat hanh trai phieu dd thj la phuang thirc huy ddng cd tiem nang Idn va lau dai, nang cao tinh tu chii ve ngan sach cua chinh quyIn dja phuong. De phat huy hon niia kenh huy ddng nay, can hoan thien khung co che, chinh sach huy ddng vdn va quan ly ng chinh quyen dia phuang; nghien cuu phat hanh trai phieu chinh quyen dia phuang vdi nhieu hinh thirc da dang nhu trai phieu cong trinh, trai phieu bang ngoai te ty do chuyen ddi; thyc hien vi?c danh gia tin nhiem ddi vdi trai phieu; phat trien thi truong thii cap nham tang tinh thanh khoan cho trai phieu... Ngoai ra, de phat huy co che tai chinh cd tinh lien ket viing, ddi vdi cac dy an ha tang mang tinh chat lien viing can huy ddng vdn theo CO che lien viing nhu trai phieu cdng trinh hoac CO che hgp vdn cua Quy dau tu phat trien dd thi TP.HCM nham dam bao lgi ich can bang vdi trach nhiem ng.
Ben canh do, nham giam ganh nang cho ngan sach dja phuong va ap lye ve tran ng cdng, can tao dieu kien hon niia ve mat co che cho cac td chiic tai chinh va cac doanh nghiep dat miic tin nhiem va dii kha nang tai chinh thuc hien vay theo ca che tu vay ty tra, khdng thdng qua bao lanh ciia Chinh phu lam gia tang ng cdng qudc gia.
4.2.3. Tgo mdi trudng thuan igi de doanh nghiep ndng cao hieu qua hogt dong, ddng gop ngudn thu ben vd-ng cho ngdn sach
Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh cin tap trung thao gd cac vudng mac ve ca che chinh sach, phat huy hon nua vai tro cua khu vuc tu nhan;
ddng thdi no lye tao mdi trucmg kinh doanh binh dang nham tao dieu kien de cac doanh nghiep qudc te den boat ddng san xuat kinh doanh va thuc su bam re tai thanh phd, gdp phin thu hut
Di/bdo trOti[gt]g va cacdu...
dong von dau tu triic ti6p nuoc ngoai tit cac 16 chuc dau tu, nha diu tu qu6c tS diu tu vao cac chuong trinh ha ting trong dilm. Ngoai ra, cac dong von nuoc ngoai khi chay vao thanh ph6 con mang theo ca cong nghe, nhan su chit lucmg cao, he thong phan ph6i va thi truong, tii do lai giiip phat huy tijm luc kinh te ciia dia phuong va dong gop ngu6n thu cho ngan sach bSn vung hon.
Thanh pho can co giai phap lam don biy kich thich tang truang kinh 18 ciing nhu co cac hinh thiic khuySn khich, ho trg doanh nghiep tren dia ban phat trien de nuoi duong ngu6n thu va gia tang dong gop cua doanh nghiep vao nguin ngan sach dia phuong. Theo nguyen tie chung va hop ly nhat, thanh pho can co nhung giai phap hihi hieu hon de thiic diy tang truong cac nguAn thu ngan sach mang tinh chat b§n viing.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
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2. Gujarati, D. N. (2004), Basic Econometric, New York. https://doi.org/10.1126/
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4. Maddison, A. (1994), Standardised Estimates of Fixed Capital Stock: A Six Country Comparison, Retrieved from http://
ideas.repec.org/p/dgr/rugggd/199409.html 5. Ngo Van Hai (2014), "Vai tro va tac dgng
cua cac ngudn luc doi voi su phat trien kinh tS", Hdi thdo khoa hoc vdi chu de: De khoa hoc cdng nghe tra thdnh dong luc phdt trien kinh ti a Viet Nam glal doan 2015 - 2020, 49 - 62.
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&hgn chi 790-S\4.
I. NguySn Hoang Thanh Lam (2017), "Phat trien kinh te tu nhan a Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh theo tinh than". Tap chi Cong thuang, 12
8. Nguyen Hong Son, Pham Thi Hong Diep (2017), "Quan diem cua Dang va Nha nuoc Viet Nam ve nguon luc va phan bo nguon lire trong nen kinh te thi truong dinh huong xa hgi chu nghTa", Tap chi Khoa hoc DHQGHN: Kinh te vd Kinh doanh, 33(4),
1-9
9. Nguyen Thanh Phong (2019), Bag cao ket qua phat trien Viing KTTDPN va vai tro diu tau ciia TRHCM trong phat trign KT-XH Viing, Hoi nghi Phdt triin Viing KTTDPN tai Ddng Nai, thang 5-2019
10. Nhu Quynh (2016), "Viing kinh t£ trgng diSm phia Nam: can nhieu giai phap phat trien diing tam. Lien hiep cac Hgi khoa hpc & Ky thuat TR H6 Chi Minh", truy cap tai <http://
www.khoahocpfaothong.com.vn/vung-kinh- te-trong-diem-phia-nam-can-nhieu-giai- phap-de-phat-trien-dung-tam-45960.html>.
[ngay truy cap: 09/01/2019]
II. The Gia (2010), "Nguon nhan luc cho viing kinh te trong diem phia Nam", Nhdn Dan, truy cap tai <http://www.nhandan.com.vn/
kinhte/item/8759002-.html>. [ngay truy cap: 09/02/2019]
12. Tong cue Thong ke (2016). Tinh hinh kinh te xd hoi
13. Tong cue Thong ke (2018). Tinh hinh kinh te xd hdi
14. Trin Thg Dat (2002), "Determinants of TFP growth in Viemam in the period 1986- 2000", Survey Report - A.?0
15. Trin Thg Dat va Do Tuyft Nhung (2011),
"Vai tro ciia nang suat tong hgp nhan to trong tang trucmg kinh te 6 Viet Nam", Tap chi Kinh ti vd Phdt trien, 169.
16. Trin Thg Dat va D6 TuySI Nhung (2012), Vai tro cua Ndng sudt cdc yeu td long hap (TFP) tron^ chat luang tdng truang cita nen kinh ti qudc dan, Trucmg Dai hgc Kinh te Quoc dan.
17. Yun-Hwan Kim and Pumima Rajapakse (2001), Mobilizing and managing foreign private capital in asian developing economies, Asia-pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 101-122
